Week 12 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
A little earlier this week because I've got a couple weeknight MAC games to talk about. Last week was 7-7, not much noteworthy about the games. 76-77-4 is the season long accumulation of neither here nor there, insignificance, going nowhere fast, etc, etc. So why not take a stab at the complete unpredictability that is the MAC? SURE!!!

Buffalo +1 LOSS
Miami(OH) +3.5 LOSS
Air Force +7.5 LOSS
Arizona +6.5 WIN
USF -10.5 LOSS
Northwestern +11 WIN
Arkansas +5.5 WIN
New Mexico -14 LOSS
Virginia +4.5 WIN
Penn State -7 WIN
Oklahoma +6 WIN
UCF +24 LOSS
Miami(FL) -14.5 WIN
East Carolina -3 WIN
North Carolina +5.5 LOSS
Ole Miss -11.5 LOSS
Georgia -6 WIN
Washington State -8 WIN
BYU -3 WIN
San Diego State -2 WIN

12-8


1. Buffalo +1 @Central Michigan (BOL): Buffalo has proven to be a terrible favorite this year, as they've lost outright to Akron and tiptoed past heavyweight Kent and Eastern Michigan by a combined 4 points. They were a preseason Acknowledged contender in the preseason though, and there is still evidence that they have some potential to fulfill that promise because they are indeed alive in the MAC title race. This situation is not exactly like the scenario a couple weeks ago when they buried BG as a short road dog, but it's similar. On paper, they have an edge in many relevant areas, especially the basics as they are almost a yard and a half better in yards per play margin than CMU is. Also, their defense has played very ell all year, ranking 13th in yards per play, 27th against the run and 29th against the pass. They've got a sizable advantage defensively in stopping the run, and that's the primary MO for CMU on offense. They have also been effective throwing the ball, but Buffalo rushes the passer very well, and CMU is 129th in sack rate against. I like the Bulls in this role, and I don't know that CMU has the offense to move it on the Bulls. Buffalo should be able to run it on the Chips, however, so i like their chances to win this one.

2 defensive TDs given up and a 75 yard pass, and that pretty much made this one impossible to cover.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
A little earlier this week because I've got a couple weeknight MAC games to talk about. Last week was 7-7, not much noteworthy about the games. 76-77-4 is the season long accumulation of neither here nor there, insignificance, going nowhere fast, etc, etc. So why not take a stab at the complete unpredictability that is the MAC? SURE!!!


1. Buffalo +1 @Central Michigan (BOL): Buffalo has proven to be a terrible favorite this year, as they've lost outright to Akron and tiptoed past heavyweight Kent and Eastern Michigan by a combined 4 points. They were a preseason Acknowledged contender in the preseason though, and there is still evidence that they have some potential to fulfill that promise because they are indeed alive in the MAC title race. This situation is not exactly like the scenario a couple weeks ago when they buried BG as a short road dog, but it's similar. On paper, they have an edge in many relevant areas, especially the basics as they are almost a yard and a half better in yards per play margin than CMU is. Also, their defense has played very ell all year, ranking 13th in yards per play, 27th against the run and 29th against the pass. They've got a sizable advantage defensively in stopping the run, and that's the primary MO for CMU on offense. They have also been effective throwing the ball, but Buffalo rushes the passer very well, and CMU is 129th in sack rate against. I like the Bulls in this role, and I don't know that CMU has the offense to move it on the Bulls. Buffalo should be able to run it on the Chips, however, so i like their chances to win this one.
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Nice idea here!

I like the early week Brass post!

Gl brother.

I feel like a 12-4/11-5 week is forthcoming!
 
2. @Miami(OH) +3.5 V Toledo (BOL) : You had to know I'd be on this one. Toledo is 0-7 since the beginning of last year as a road favorite, so we would be remiss in missing a chance to fade them here. The last time they covered in this role was at Miami 2 years ago, but they luckboxed their way to that cover by a half point and haven't been close since. Miami should currently be on a 6 game winning streak but ran into some terrible luck last week at Ohio in Athens, falling by 4 on a late TD by the Bobcats. In that game, Miami got stoned at the 1 which would have salted away the game, then on the game winning drive, they sacked Navarro on 3rd and 14 to end the game, only to get called for a facemask to extend the drive. Then on the game winning TD, there was 2 missed blatant holds and then an obvious offensive pass interference push off all on the same play. Tough breaks for the RedHawks last week, I think they're due for some good fortune. Defensively, they have the chops to match up with Toledo even at their best, and as well all know, Jason Candle is never at his best as a road favorite. Toledo's numbers are also skewed by the 139th ranked schedule by Sagarin. Toledo is pretty much a must fade in this role, and Miami has won 11 of their last 12 in conference. They're used to winning.

This one was dead when Finn was ruled out. I guess he just quit the team ultimately. The backup Hesson is terrible, and I would never have have bet the game if I knew he was going to be the starting QB. Like I mentioned, Group of 5 injuries are very hard to be aware of.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
2. @Miami(OH) +3.5 V Toledo (BOL) : You had to know I'd be on this one. Toledo is 0-7 since the beginning of last year as a road favorite, so we would be remiss in missing a chance to fade them here. The last time they covered in this role was at Miami 2 years ago, but they luckboxed their way to that cover by a half point and haven't been close since. Miami should currently be on a 6 game winning streak but ran into some terrible luck last week at Ohio in Athens, falling by 4 on a late TD by the Bobcats. In that game, Miami got stoned at the 1 which would have salted away the game, then on the game winning drive, they sacked Navarro on 3rd and 14 to end the game, only to get called for a facemask to extend the drive. Then on the game winning TD, there was 2 missed blatant holds and then an obvious offensive pass interference push off all on the same play. Tough breaks for the RedHawks last week, I think they're due for some good fortune. Defensively, they have the chops to match up with Toledo even at their best, and as well all know, Jason Candle is never at his best as a road favorite. Toledo's numbers are also skewed by the 139th ranked schedule by Sagarin. Toledo is pretty much a must fade in this role, and Miami has won 11 of their last 12 in conference. They're used to winning.
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Steam to make line +5.5
 
Looks like Finn out for Miami. Had no idea that was the case and was completely tied up all day so did not know. Hopefully Hesson plays well, but not ideal. Information is very hard to come by in the Group of 5. Very annoying.
 
Rough start on the MACtion. Finn being out for Miami changed everything as Hesson was completely pathetic and feckless. Then Buffalo gives up 2 defensive TDs and a 75 yard TD pass leading to an 0-2 night. That sets us back, but at least we have the rest of the week.
 
3. Air Force +7.5 @UCONN (BOL) : UConn is coming off a great win for them last week against Duke, and there's no doubt that their offense is very good, especially in the pass game with QB Joe Fagnano(25/0 ratio) and Skyler Bell at wideout. That's bad news for Air Force who throughout the year have been torched in the passing game. However, Air Force is starting to find ways to compete defensively as they've given up only about 20 point a game in the last 3 and held a good pass offense in San Jose State to 16 points on the road(albeit with some smoke and mirrors). Offensively, though, they are a tough team to handle, with Liam Szarka showing repeatedly that he is a solid double threat. UConn's defense is questionable, and that's against the #131 schedule per Sagarin. UConn is certainly a good play as a dog with that defense, but as a TD+ favorite against a determined dog that will certainly be able to run on them, I'm skeptical. They've had some bad efforts as a favorite this year, beating Ball State by only 6, Buffalo by 3 and the aforementioned loss to Rice. This should be a battle of two offenses that should have success, and it will be tough for the Huskies to cover his number when they have a hard time stopping the monotony of Air Force's offense.

This one was in trouble when AF was losing at half despite having a 100+ yard edge. 2 times stopped on downs, a missed FG. Then Szarka slices his hand off early in the 2nd half and Air Force's offense loses it's edge. All that and they still were the missed FG away from covering.
 
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4. @Arizona +6.5 @Cincinnati (BR): I see these two teams as pretty evenly matched. Both have played pretty much identical schedules in terms of strength of opponent, they are about the same in yards per play margin and they are dead heats on 3rd down for the most part. Also, Arizona's offensive numbers are steadily improving to the point where they've got an edge against a vanilla outfit like Cincinnati, who really doesn't excel in anything on that side of the ball and certainly aren't a threat to pressure Fifita. The Arizona defense has been good all year, and has been outstanding in coverage, ranking 7th in yards per pass attempt, which will serve them well against Brendan Sorsby. Bordering on a TD is too much in this one. Arizona actually looks live to me here.

And Arizona was indeed live. They held Sorsby to 154 yards passing on 28 attempts and picked him off twice. 475 to 344 yard edge, no doubt this was the right side.
 
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5. USF -10 @Navy (BOL): I think this line assumes Blake Horvath is playing, but there's anon-zero chance he's out and if he is, I don't think the Middies have much of a chance to cover this. This USF offense has been very explosive in many cases this year, and Navy showed last week that their defense is going to be completely overmatched by talented athletic offenses. We didn't know it for sure until last week because Navy's schedule was so terrible that their defense looked passable against that competition. USF can't afford a subpar performance since they have 2 losses already and carry very little margin of error into the rest of their schedule. Even after playing Notre Dame, Navy's schedule is still ranked 135th. USF probably also remembers getting humbled by Navy last year when they were without QB Brown, but even scrub backup QB Bryce Archie threw for 281 yards in that one against a much better Navy defense than this one. I like USF to take care of business here .

No business taken care of in any way shape or form for the Bulls here and they are out of the running for the playoff as a result. They had 556 yards and never really were in a position where Navy could line up and stop them, but they stopped themselves a couple times and that was all navy needed not only to cover but win outright. USF also got the gift of any injury to Horvath and it didn't matter. Woodson came in and ran it for 103 yards on 9 carries after Horvath spent the first half torching them. Horvath's Mom could have come in at QB and it wouldn't have mattered. Very small and puny effort from the USF defense.

6. @Northwestern +11 @Michigan(BOL) : This game is at Wrigley Field, and I'm sure there will be plenty of Michigan fans there, so I wouldn't call this a Northwestern home game. However, I think this is a good matchup for the Cats, Defensively, the only team that really torched them this year was USC last week. USC has the ability to throw downfield with better athletes and come up with explosive plays. That's not Michigan's game, and Bryce Underwood hasn't yet shown the ability to affect an offense to make it explosive. Michigan's offense, especially without Justice Haynes, doesn't have a ton of explosiveness. Against those types of offenses, Northwestern has done fine defensively. Penn State they held to 273 yards, and even Oregon was held pretty much in check, as they didn't crack 375 yards for the game. Offensively, Preston Stone is going to have to avoid bonehead turnovers, but they have a couple running backs in Himon and Komolafe who can keep the chains moving and WR Griffin Wilde has been great for them on 3rd down, where the Cats have been very solid. Michigan has spent quite a bit of time this year allowing inferior teams hang around, and worse teams than Northwestern have been within this number or right around it against the Wolverines this year(Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue). Just need to avoid the front door.

Michigan had 5 turnovers, but the Michigan offense really only turned it over 3 times as one of them was going to be a 4th down stop anyway. Cats did what they do, and Michigan played down to their opponent as usual.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
4. @Arizona +6.5 @Cincinnati (BR): I see these two teams as pretty evenly matched. Both have played pretty much identical schedules in terms of strength of opponent, they are about the same in yards per play margin and they are dead heats on 3rd down for the most part. Also, Arizona's offensive numbers are steadily improving to the point where they've got an edge against a vanilla outfit like Cincinnati, who really doesn't excel in anything on that side of the ball and certainly aren't a threat to pressure Fifita. The Arizona defense has been good all year, and has been outstanding in coverage, ranking 7th in yards per pass attempt, which will serve them well against Brendan Sorsby. Bordering on a TD is too much in this one. Arizona actually looks live to me here.
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From PFF

Matchup to watch when ​

Perhaps the biggest weakness of Cincinnati’s offense, dating back to last season, has been the inability of its wide receivers to beat man coverage. The Bearcats have recorded just a 61.9 PFF receiving grade versus man coverage in games against Power Four teams this season.

Opposite the Bearcats’ offense this week is an Arizona defense that deploys man coverage at the 23rd-highest rate in the nation. The Wildcats enter Week 12 with an 85.9 man coverage grade, seventh-best in the country. If Arizona’s solid cornerback unit, led by Treydan Stukes, can shut down Cyrus Allen, Caleb Goodie and Cincinnati’s receiving corps, the Wildcats will have a chance to pull off an upset.
 
Br@ssknux said:
5. USF -10 @Navy (BOL): I think this line assumes Blake Horvath is playing, but there's anon-zero chance he's out and if he is, I don't think the Middies have much of a chance to cover this. This USF offense has been very explosive in many cases this year, and Navy showed last week that their defense is going to be completely overmatched by talented athletic offenses. We didn't know it for sure until last week because Navy's schedule was so terrible that their defense looked passable against that competition. USF can't afford a subpar performance since they have 2 losses already and carry very little margin of error into the rest of their schedule. Even after playing Notre Dame, Navy's schedule is still ranked 135th. USF probably also remembers getting humbled by Navy last year when they were without QB Brown, but even scrub backup QB Bryce Archie threw for 281 yards in that one against a much better Navy defense than this one. I like USF to take care of business here.
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I know this probably ain’t the best way to go about it but I’ve kinda taken to the idea of any team north Texas smashed to play usf against that team.
 
7. Arkansas +5.5 @LSU (BOL) : Both of these teams are in a tough spot where it's difficult to determine their motivation under interim coaches, but this is a rivalry game, so I'm guessing we'll get good efforts from both. LSU's offense is a mess right now, and has been for most of the season. Garett Nussmeier has regressed to the point that nobody much cares if he plays or doesn't. That means Michael Van Buren will probably at least see some time in this one. He's fine, but I don't know that he's got the pedigree to improve things much either. LSU's defense has been good all year, but this Arkansas offense moves the ball on pretty much everyone, and the Hogs have been very reliable in the road dog role. They've outgained Ole Miss and Tennessee and covered both of those games in previous SEC road tilts and did the same to A&M, losing by 3 in Fayetteville. All 3 of those teams are significantly better than LSU is at this juncture, so I think the Razorbacks are likely to stay within this number. Can they win outright? They haven't won an SEC game yet, but they don't strike me as a team bad enough to go winless in the league, so you neber know.

At this point, you can just chalk up a mind numbing razor thin loss for Arkansas pretty much every week. This week they lose by 1 after getting stopped on downs at the 1 and missing a couple FGs. They cover though. I'll give them that. @Texas next week.
 
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8. @New Mexico -14 v Colorado State (BR) : Who would have thought, at any point during the past half dozen years or so that I'd be happily laying 14 with the Lobos in a Mountain West game? Not me, I assure you. But we're doing it because these are two teams going in opposite directions. The Lobos are riding high, already bowl eligible and looking to improve their spot and Colorado State is just trying to get the season over with, having already fired Jay Norvell, a man with the distinction of having ruined not one but two Mountain West programs. In the last two games, the Rams have lost by a combined 70-10 against UNLV and Wyoming. It's bad on the offensive side but it's been a complete disaster on the defensive side for the Rams. Any offense with a pulse has put up 500 yards or close to it and New Mexico qualifies as the Lobos rank 36th in yards per play and 27th in yards per pass attempt. UNM has a major edge in just about every offensive category, and there isn't much evidence that Colorado State can make this competitive game given where these two programs sit currently. If a couple things go badly early for the Rams in this one, it could get pretty ugly.

Unfortunately, we got New Mexico's D- game in this one. CSU is terrible on offense and they were terrible all day, but UNM fumbled 4 times in crucial spots(for the cover anyway). They were in position early in the second half up 10 to blow the game open but fumbled on the CSU 10, then after getting a punt, fumbled it on their own 7 and gave up a 7 yard TD drive. Had CSU not been so pathetic on offense, the Lobos might have lost this game outright. If they played again tomorrow, and we got even a B effort, UNM probably wins this 31-7. I'd probably lay it again.
 
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9. Virginia +4.5 @ Duke (BR) : It all sets up for Duke as despite having 4 losses on the year, the Blue Devils control their own destiny for a spot in the ACC championship game. What could go wrong, right? These guys under Diaz haven't shot themselves in the foot this year all that much, have they? Oh they have? But Virginia, they aren't a lucky team that has seen bad things happen to their opponents this year are they? Oh they have? Ah, I see. Well, other than last week anyway. Duke as played a tougher schedule than Virginia but I see a lot of advantages for UVa in this game. Duke's offense with Mensah has been good when they don't turn the ball over, but Virginia's defense is probably the best one they've faced other than maybe Clemson? On the other side, Duke is ranked 118th in yards per play against and 128th in yards per pass attempt against. The Cavalier offensive line has not struggled giving up sacks, which is Duke's MO, and they have been good on 3rd down. It looks like Chandler Morris is going to be back, but even if he isn't, UVa's primary goal will be to run it, and I think they'll have success there too. All of this says nothing of Duke's absolute willingness to implode in big spots this year and Virginia's surgically imbedded rectal horseshoe. Duke hasn't shown the ability to deliver on bettors faith in them, I don't expect them to start now.

Duke has proven many times this year that they don't have the pedigree to play anything close to a clean game in a scenario like this. This was actually a satisfying one because so many people who consider themselves "Pro" bettors were on Duke in this one. I think many of them are still holding on to the false perception that Duke is some juggernaut that outplayed people all year and just needs a break, when their defense has been torched by everyone all year. Virginia has been a fraud this year, but this matchup was a good one for them. The Cavalier offense finally got a repreive from playing defenses like Louisville and even UNC, and it showed. 540-255 yardage edge. Duke was never in it.
 
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10. Penn State -7 @Michigan State (BOL) : I've noticed quite a few people backing Michigan State here, and it's true that the Spartans have covered a few in a row, but this is not a good team. Penn State, despite their horrific season, is still a pretty good pass defense, much better anyway than their run defense, but Michigan State can't run the ball. Since Jonathan Smith has been there, the Spartans are 2-10 ATS at home, and Penn State QB Grunkmeyer is finally getting a reprieve after consecutive games against Iowa and Ohio State on the road and Indiana at home. This Michigan State defense will seem like a high school squad after the gauntlet he's been through. MSU is 97th in yards per play, 90th or worse everywhere else and 112th on 3rd down. Penn State will run the ball and there's no way they are going winless in conference. I think this might be one of those games where a team that was supposed to be good finally looks like it. I think they are too prideful of a program to not have max effort here, so I see them taking care of business.

It took Penn State awhile, but they eventually figured it out. Only 229 yards for MSU. I was on an island for this one but Michigan State is rarely reliable at home these days.
 
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11. Oklahoma +6 @Alabama (BOL) : Despite Oklahoma's issues on offense, these two teams are very evenly matched in my opinion. Alabama has had a great year and has been on quite a run against ranked teams, but they've been fortunate too. They were outgained against Missouri, Tennessee and South Carolina, but won all 3, and they've been run on by all but the worst rushing teams on their schedule. Oklahoma has not been great on the ground offensively, but they've been better in recent weeks, and I think they'll have success in that area, especially if John Mateer builds on his rushing performance two weeks ago at Tennessee. On the other side of the ball, Alabama is up against it if they try to run on this Oklahoma defense. The Tide is ranked 108th in yards per attempt and Oklahoma hasn't allowed anyone to run on them all year(#2 rush D). Also, they will be putting pressure on Ty Simpson and have a major advantage in the trenches regardless of what Alabama runs. Despite being perpetually scantily clad, OU kicker Tate Sandell is money from anywhere within about 57-58 yards, and the OU special teams are significantly better than Alabama's overall(#12 vs #68 in FEI ST rankings), so they'll have an advantage there as well. Bama has been great ATS as a home favorite, but given the matchups in this one, 6 is too much in my opinion.

This Oklahoma defense just wins games for the Sooners. Sometimes they just shut people down and suffocate them. If they give up yards and points, they just get turnovers and score themselves. The Sooner offense is lucky to have them. Even though Bama severely outgained the Sooners, I was never nervous that my +6 ticket was in jeopardy. Oklahoma has been money on the road. Less so at home...Mizzou in Norman next week. Mizzou a bit under the radar. We'll see where that line ends up.
 
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12. UCF +24 @Texas Tech (BR) : I might be a glutton for punishment in this one, but this just seems like too much value to me. UCF has screwed me ore than once and I've gotten my skull caved in my Tech several times, but I can't ignore this one. Tech has a spot in the Big 12 title game virtually locked up. Behren Morton was clearly not 100% last week even though they hardly needed him. Make no mistake, however, they'll need him more than ever in the postseason and they are absolutely screwed if he gets hurt further now that backup Will Hammond is out for the year. I've mentioned this before, but 3rd stringer Mitch Griffis is awful. Tech's season is over if Morton gets injured. They would be very wise to put him on the shelf as soon as they get a comfy lead in this one, and it wouldn't be crazy to just sit him out altogether this week. I have no clue who is going to play QB for UCF, but they are a running offense anyway. I'm only hoping for about 10-14 points in non-garbage time because if I get that, I think this UCF defense, which still ranks highly (25th in yards per play, 17th against the pass, 22nd on 3rd down) can compete enough to keep this Tech offense in the same general vicinity they were in last week in much more of a sleepy spot then they found themselves last week with an undefeated BYU team and Gameday in town. Despite bettors pounding Tech this one has actually stayed right around this line, which hopefully tells is something.

I guess my Fade Texas Tech/Play on UCF tendencies have been wrong, eh? Let's go ahead and confirm that.
 
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13. @Miami(FL) -14.5 v NC State(BR) : NC State is coming off a big upset victory over Georgia Tech a couple weeks ago, but this program is known for completely gutless efforts, so it would be just like them to have a great win, get a bye and then come out and get blasted in their first game after that. The NC State offense is pretty good, but they are more bumslayers than anything else, putting up points and yards against mediocre defenses but not much of anything when tested against a good defense. Their own defense is an abomination, terrible in all facets. They are 126th in yards per play against, they can't get off the field on 3rd downs, and they can't pressure the QB at all. Carson Beck can be had if you pressure him, but if he's allowed to sit back there and pick you apart, especially on his home field, he'll do exactly that. When stepping up in class on the road, the Wolfpack has been pummeled, both by Notre Dame and Pitt, who they never could get a stop against. They'll even be shorthanded on offense as their top RB Hollywood Smothers is very questionable, and TE Justin Joly, a future pro is out this week. These two are heavily relied upon when they play weak defenses, and now they'll have to face the Miami defense, who might be the best they've played, without those guys and on the road. Miami's D has the edge in every category when matched up with the Wolfpack offense, and State was held to 7 in their only other tilt with anyone in the same zip code as this Miami D (ND). This has the makings of a 45-14 game. I'd bring up Cristobal's hijinks as a possible detriment, but I don't think it'll be close enough to matter.

NC State is a non-team, a complete non-entity when faced with any kind of adversity. When faced with an actual good defense, their sometimes competent offense goes in a shell and they don't possess an actual defense, rather 11 people in uniforms who run around and fill space on the field. This was never a game from the jump. This was one of those writeups that had it pretty much covered.
 
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14. @ECU -3 v Memphis (BOL) : Usually you would expect Memphis to be favored in this game, but there's no mistake here in my opinion. The right team is favored. Memphis's primary motive is to run the ball, and QB Brendon Lewis is important to their RPO zone read scheme. The problem for them is that ECU has been good stopping the run, and Lewis also appears not 100% with his wheels. On the other hand, ECU wants to throw it, and pass defense is Memphis's issue on defense, as the Tigers rank 72nd against the pass and does not provide much pressure to the QB. Katin Houser can certainly make some throws when in rhythm, and I think he'll be in rhythm against this Memphis pass defense. ECU should also be able to pressure Lewis when he does pass. Tough home field and a tough motivational spot for Memphis coming off their weak performance against Tulane last week. ECU is always a tough place to play and the Pirates are on a roll, handling everybody they've played outside of the three higher level .opponents on their schedule (BYU, Tulane and the opener with NC State)

This one could have gone either way, but I think it was the atmosphere in Greenville that did it in this one. Also, Houser was able to make plays when Lewis wasn't in crunch time.
 
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15. North Carolina +5.5 @Wake Forest (BR) : Over the past several weeks, there's been quite a turnaround in the fortunes of North Carolina. Not so much offensively, but definitely defensively. They've shut the doors on everyone to the extent that they're ranked 22nd in yards per play, 12th against the run and 25th in sack rate. Wake's offense has been terrible lately regardless of who plays QB. They can't run it, both Ashford and Purdie are high turnover risks and they'll be sped up by the UNC pass rush. Wake's defense is also very good, and UNC isn't likely to provide fireworks, but this will be such a close to the vest slugfest that 5.5 points is certainly valuable.

This one would probably fall into this spread most times if they played 10 games against each other, it just didn't work out this time. UNC had about a dozen chances to win this game or at least have it come down to wire if they could have done anything at all on offense, and they had a couple bad replay reviews that went against them. Oh well. Wake continues to find ways to win under Rickert. To have 7 wins with Robby Ashford as your QB is saying something.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
10. Penn State -7 @Michigan State (BOL) : I've noticed quite a few people backing Michigan State here, and it's true that the Spartans have covered a few in a row, but this is not a good team. Penn State, despite their horrific season, is still a pretty good pass defense, much better anyway than their run defense, but Michigan State can't run the ball. Since Jonathan Smith has been there, the Spartans are 2-10 ATS at home, and Penn State QB Grunkmeyer is finally getting a reprieve after consecutive games against Iowa and Ohio State on the road and Indiana at home. This Michigan State defense will seem like a high school squad after the gauntlet he's been through. MSU is 97th in yards per play, 90th or worse everywhere else and 112th on 3rd down. Penn State will run the ball and there's no way they are going winless in conference. I think this might be one of those games where a team that was supposed to be good finally looks like it. I think they are too prideful of a program to not have max effort here, so I see them taking care of business.
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Agree with this one wholeheartedly but I just can't talk myself into laying the 7. I want 6.5.

Also, I think I'd rather watch a WNBA D-league preseason game than this.
 
Br@ssknux said:
7. Arkansas +5.5 @LSU (BOL) : Both of these teams are in a tough spot where it's difficult to determine their motivation under interim coaches, but this is a rivalry game, so I'm guessing we'll get good efforts from both. LSU's offense is a mess right now, and has been for most of the season. Garett Nussmeier has regressed to the point that nobody much cares if he plays or doesn't. That means Michael Van Buren will probably at least see some time in this one. He's fine, but I don't know that he's got the pedigree to improve things much either. LSU's defense has been good all year, but this Arkansas offense moves the ball on pretty much everyone, and the Hogs have been very reliable in the road dog role. They've outgained Ole Miss and Tennessee and covered both of those games in previous SEC road tilts and did the same to A&M, losing by 3 in Fayetteville. All 3 of those teams are significantly better than LSU is at this juncture, so I think the Razorbacks are likely to stay within this number. Can they win outright? They haven't won an SEC game yet, but they don't strike me as a team bad enough to go winless in the league, so you neber know.
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Seems like the only way to play this one.
 
Br@ssknux said:
10. Penn State -7 @Michigan State (BOL) : I've noticed quite a few people backing Michigan State here, and it's true that the Spartans have covered a few in a row, but this is not a good team. Penn State, despite their horrific season, is still a pretty good pass defense, much better anyway than their run defense, but Michigan State can't run the ball. Since Jonathan Smith has been there, the Spartans are 2-10 ATS at home, and Penn State QB Grunkmeyer is finally getting a reprieve after consecutive games against Iowa and Ohio State on the road and Indiana at home. This Michigan State defense will seem like a high school squad after the gauntlet he's been through. MSU is 97th in yards per play, 90th or worse everywhere else and 112th on 3rd down. Penn State will run the ball and there's no way they are going winless in conference. I think this might be one of those games where a team that was supposed to be good finally looks like it. I think they are too prideful of a program to not have max effort here, so I see them taking care of business.
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100% understand this part of the cap.

Situationally is a big part of any MSU bets.

Think about it -- PSU is coming off a huge heartbreak. Despite this wildly depressing season last week beating #2 Indy would have been the shining moment this year! That was a tough, physical game.

Speaking of physical games, the Nittany Lions played their rivalry game the week vs a physical defense in those Buckeyes of Ohio State.

That's two straight weeks vs top 3 teams. A deflating 2h vs OSU and then a heartbreaking loss.

I could add in this stretch of games vs physics teams prior. It's been quite the stretch. But, you understand.

NOW...

They head into East Lansing vs a terrible team that is giving 2 for 1 student tickets trying to increase attendance. Their coach almost feels lame duck ish and the QB has yet to be determined.

How the heck do you get up for that!?!?

I will admit you have me thinking with the second to last comment. We've seen that before.

GL bud.
 
Hulu said:
Agree with this one wholeheartedly but I just can't talk myself into laying the 7. I want 6.5.

Also, I think I'd rather watch a WNBA D-league preseason game than this.
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LOL!! That's harsh! I get it though. This time of year, there's a ton of games that there's only one possible reason that anybody cares about the outcome.
 
B.A.R. said:
100% understand this part of the cap.

Situationally is a big part of any MSU bets.

Think about it -- PSU is coming off a huge heartbreak. Despite this wildly depressing season last week beating #2 Indy would have been the shining moment this year! That was a tough, physical game.

Speaking of physical games, the Nittany Lions played their rivalry game the week vs a physical defense in those Buckeyes of Ohio State.

That's two straight weeks vs top 3 teams. A deflating 2h vs OSU and then a heartbreaking loss.

I could add in this stretch of games vs physics teams prior. It's been quite the stretch. But, you understand.

NOW...

They head into East Lansing vs a terrible team that is giving 2 for 1 student tickets trying to increase attendance. Their coach almost feels lame duck ish and the QB has yet to be determined.

How the heck do you get up for that!?!?

I will admit you have me thinking with the second to last comment. We've seen that before.

GL bud.
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Oh there's no doubt it's an obvious terrible spot. Should have explicitly mentioned it rather than just addressing it late by saying I assume a good effort. I've gotten burned several times by the Spartans this year so this won't be the first if they get me again.
 
B.A.R. said:
100% understand this part of the cap.

Situationally is a big part of any MSU bets.

Think about it -- PSU is coming off a huge heartbreak. Despite this wildly depressing season last week beating #2 Indy would have been the shining moment this year! That was a tough, physical game.

Speaking of physical games, the Nittany Lions played their rivalry game the week vs a physical defense in those Buckeyes of Ohio State.

That's two straight weeks vs top 3 teams. A deflating 2h vs OSU and then a heartbreaking loss.

I could add in this stretch of games vs physics teams prior. It's been quite the stretch. But, you understand.

NOW...

They head into East Lansing vs a terrible team that is giving 2 for 1 student tickets trying to increase attendance. Their coach almost feels lame duck ish and the QB has yet to be determined.

How the heck do you get up for that!?!?

I will admit you have me thinking with the second to last comment. We've seen that before.

GL bud.
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This is about as well as that situation can be articulated, by the way, BAR. Thanks as always for jumping in and adding great insight.
 
16. @Ole Miss -11.5 v Florida: I think this line got as high as 16 or maybe even 17 earlier in the week, and now for whatever reason it's all the way down to 11.5. All I can look at is where these two teams stand, and I don't know how Florida stays close in this one. As I mentioned last week, the two main targets for Lagway, by far are Eugene Wilson Jr and Dallas Wilson. Those two have SEC talent and make you stand up and take notice that Florida has comparable explosive talent like the rest of the SEC. They are both out and will not play. That Gators are getting a couple of their depth receivers back, but they do not move the needle like the Wilsons. Also, for a large part of the season, Florida had a reputation of being a swarming defense, and they definitely had some good games, but this is not a statistically good defense, especially against the pass. The Gators rank 103rd in yards per attempt and they are 118th on 3rd down. I can't see how they will be able to keep Ole Miss off the scoreboard, and I don't think they can keep up offensively. Maybe Kiffin is about to take the Florida job and doesn't want to run it up on his new employer, I don't know, but all we can go off is the massive advantages Ole Miss has here (in addition to revenge from Florida ruining their chances last year), so I'm laying it.

After the first few minutes of this one it looked like this might be a rocking chair winner. However, Chambliss threw a pick that was brought back inside the 10 and then the Rebels were stopped on downs at the 1 and then later the 3 where they got no points. That's how your fail to cover 11 with a 538-326 yardage edge.
 
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17. @Georgia -6 v Texas (BR) : Could this be the game that we finally can be rid of the possibility of Texas being in the playoff? I hope so. Normally when I am looking at a dog, I even a double digit dog, I try to come up with a scenario of them winning the game outright. In a lot of cases, you can make a reasonably good case for it and then you have the buffer of the points to back you up. I think people make mistakes when they assume a team is going to lose but are pretty sure it'll only be by 7 or less. If you can't make a case a team could win, you better be getting 2 TDs or more in my opinion. I see no scenario where Texas can go into Athens and win this game. They played a Georgia team that they were much better than on paper twice and couldn't get it done last year(once on their own field), and I don't think they have a shot this year either. Take a look at what Texas has done on the road in conference this year. The went to Florida and got completely dominated. I bet them that game and I can tell you they never had a shot. They were outgained 457 to 351. Then they went to Kentucky and got dominated again, only to sneak out of there with a win thanks to their punt returner. They were outgained 395-179 by a team that prior to that had lost 10 of their last 11 SEC games. Then they pulled another rabbit out of their hat after being down 38-21 in the 4th quarter against a Mississippi State team that had lost 15 straight SEC games. Texas can't run the ball and won't be able to against Georgia so the burden will fall on Arch Manning. He's been better lately, and Georgia's pass defense has been a weakness for the Dawgs, but I do not see any scenario where Arch has the fortitude to carry this team. Also, the Texas defense looks good on paper, but how much of that has been built on huge performances against terrible teams? How good are they? Well, in those SEC road games I referenced, they've been shit. Kentucky put up 395 yards on them, and prior to that, the Cats were the 103rd ranked offense in FBS. Florida put up 457 yards on them, their highest output of the year and more than they gained against Long Island and Mississippi State. Miss State put up 445 and 382 yards through the air, their high water mark for the year in passing yards. Those are some pretty piss poor defensive performances, all on the road against teams significantly inferior to Georgia. So we're going to assume they can shut down the Georgia offense? I think there's no way Georgia doesn't outgain Texas in this one, and it's probably going to be by a lot. Do you think Texas is going to be able to overcome that against Georgia, who many believe(with good reason) has the referees in their back pocket, and has luckboxed their way to misleading scores all year? No chance.

I have to say this was one of my better efforts.
 
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18 @Washington State -8 v Louisiana Tech (BOL) : Talk about a bad spot. La Tech just got eliminated in the CUSA race with an almost impossible loss last week to Delaware(look it up, I'll spare the details here, but it was BAD). Now they have to drop what they're doing in conference and trek all the way to college football's most remote outpost to play a strange non-conference game against a Wazzou team that has been playing really well in recent weeks. The Cougs improvement pretty much coincided with them finally going to back to Zevi Eckhouse at QB. Since then they've navigated a schedule that included back to back trips to Ole Miss and Virginia, and home games with Toledo and Colorado State, and they played well in all of them. They should have beaten both Ole Miss and UVa and had no problem with the other two. They dropped their rivalry game at Oregon State since then, but now step into this game off a bye. La Tech also lost their starting QB Blake Baker in that loss to Delaware, so there's no telling who they're going to use on short notice. If you're wondering how hard this trip might be in the middle of conference season, well, Toledo had to do it a few weeks ago and got ran off the field. Washington State's defense has given up 301, 299 and 203 yards in the past three weeks to Virginia, Toledo and Oregon State, so their defense is settling in under first year coach Jimmy Walker. Those are all significantly better offenses than La Tech. The La Tech defense hasn't been bad, but they aren't as good as Toledo's(by a long shot) and the schedule difference in this one per Sagarin is 56 to 128 in Washington State's favor. It's an almost impossible spot for a team that doesn't match up well with the Cougs on any field, let alone this one.

Rocking chair winner.
 
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19. @BYU -3 v TCU (BOL) : The absolute hatred that "sharps" have for BYU knows no bounds. Believe it or not, BYU is in fact a good football team. They proved last week( and I learned a painful lesson) that they are not elite, but they certainly are still a solid team. So my question is this: What has TCU done to make people so sure they are capable of walking into a very tough place to play and compete to the bell and most likely win? This game is getting bet like people know the score already. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but this BYU team has been battle tested, and this TCU team has not necessarily been a paragon of toughness. They wilted in the second half of a game at Arizona State that they led 17-0, getting outgained in the process 498-269. They lost handily at Kansas State despite outgaining the Wildcats by more than 100 yards. Just last week they found a way to lose to a totally undermanned and beaten down Iowa State team on their home field despite outgaining the Cyclones 432-272. Now we expect them, with that pedigree to play a good enough game to pretty much have to win on the road in Provo against a resourceful BYU team who just got trounced the week before? If it happens, I'll tip my cap. Shit, wait till kickoff and you might be getting points with BYU.

Very satisfying. Another game that the 'pros" were on the other side. No need to rehash what was said above. It played out. Great job by the Cougs here.
 
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20. @San Diego State -2 v Boise State (BOL) : Maybe I'm a square, but I can't figure this line out. If this game was 2 weeks ago, I would like the Aztecs here despite the Broncos being 6-2 and still having Maddux Madsen. Both teams have had a major scarlet letter in the past week. SDSU got blown out on the island(my biggest regret last week), and Boise in their last game had perhaps their worst performance in 20 years. They got hammered at home by a nondescript Fresno team 30-7 and gained only 193 yards in the process. Their backup QB Max Cutforth(cool name) came in and completed less than 50% of his throws and averaged 3 yards per attempt on 30 throws. Now they face a mad SDSU team that has almost without question the best defense in the Group of 5 and has won their home games by a combined 103-31, and Cal and Wyoming are in there...not great but not bad. The Aztec offense isn't great, but they can run the ball and Boise is ranked 97th in yards per rush against. I think the Aztecs bounce back well here against a shorthanded Boise team.

Denegal actually played but it didn't matter because SDSU didn't even really try to throw it (17 yards passing!!). The problem for Boise was that they tried to throw it and didn't do much better with Max Cutforth. Aztec defense had a great bounce back in the comforts of home. Boise punted 7 times out of 9 legit possessions. That's a very good defense Sean Lewis has out there.
 
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Believe it or not, I might add one or two. If so it'll be a little after noon eastern. Got some things to do for a bit. Thanks for the feedback.
 
Br@ssknux said:
20. @San Diego State -2 v Boise State (BOL) : Maybe I'm a square, but I can't figure this line out. If this game was 2 weeks ago, I would like the Aztecs here despite the Broncos being 6-2 and still having Maddux Madsen. Both teams have had a major scarlet letter in the past week. SDSU got blown out on the island(my biggest regret last week), and Boise in their last game had perhaps their worst performance in 20 years. They got hammered at home by a nondescript Fresno team 30-7 and gained only 193 yards in the process. Their backup QB Max Cutforth(cool name) came in and completed less than 50% of his throws and averaged 3 yards per attempt on 30 throws. Now they face a mad SDSU team that has almost without question the best defense in the Group of 5 and has won their home games by a combined 103-31, and Cal and Wyoming are in there...not great but not bad. The Aztec offense isn't great, but they can run the ball and Boise is ranked 97th in yards per rush against. I think the Aztecs bounce back well here against a shorthanded Boise team.
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San Diego State starting qb is also out. He wasn't playing very well so I doubt this hurt the Aztecs too much
 
FYI, forgot to add #6 play which is Northwestern. Wrote it up last night but forgot to paste it. I placed it up with the play after it earlier in the thread. Scroll up and you’ll see it.
 
Br@ssknux said:
5. USF -10 @Navy (BOL): I think this line assumes Blake Horvath is playing, but there's anon-zero chance he's out and if he is, I don't think the Middies have much of a chance to cover this. This USF offense has been very explosive in many cases this year, and Navy showed last week that their defense is going to be completely overmatched by talented athletic offenses. We didn't know it for sure until last week because Navy's schedule was so terrible that their defense looked passable against that competition. USF can't afford a subpar performance since they have 2 losses already and carry very little margin of error into the rest of their schedule. Even after playing Notre Dame, Navy's schedule is still ranked 135th. USF probably also remembers getting humbled by Navy last year when they were without QB Brown, but even scrub backup QB Bryce Archie threw for 281 yards in that one against a much better Navy defense than this one. I like USF to take care of business here.
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My houseguest is 3rd-string QB Gutierrez’s cousin. She just got a text that she takes to mean he’ll be playing more this week.
 
Br@ssknux said:
17. @Georgia -6 v Texas (BR) : Could this be the game that we finally can be rid of the possibility of Texas being in the playoff? I hope so. Normally when I am looking at a dog, I even a double digit dog, I try to come up with a scenario of them winning the game outright. In a lot of cases, you can make a reasonably good case for it and then you have the buffer of the points to back you up. I think people make mistakes when they assume a team is going to lose but are pretty sure it'll only be by 7 or less. If you can't make a case a team could win, you better be getting 2 TDs or more in my opinion. I see no scenario where Texas can go into Athens and win this game. They played a Georgia team that they were much better than on paper twice and couldn't get it done last year(once on their own field), and I don't think they have a shot this year either. Take a look at what Texas has done on the road in conference this year. The went to Florida and got completely dominated. I bet them that game and I can tell you they never had a shot. They were outgained 457 to 351. Then they went to Kentucky and got dominated again, only to sneak out of there with a win thanks to their punt returner. They were outgained 395-179 by a team that prior to that had lost 10 of their last 11 SEC games. Then they pulled another rabbit out of their hat after being down 38-21 in the 4th quarter against a Mississippi State team that had lost 15 straight SEC games. Texas can't run the ball and won't be able to against Georgia so the burden will fall on Arch Manning. He's been better lately, and Georgia's pass defense has been a weakness for the Dawgs, but I do not see any scenario where Arch has the fortitude to carry this team. Also, the Texas defense looks good on paper, but how much of that has been built on huge performances against terrible teams? How good are they? Well, in those SEC road games I referenced, they've been shit. Kentucky put up 395 yards on them, and prior to that, the Cats were the 103rd ranked offense in FBS. Florida put up 457 yards on them, their highest output of the year and more than they gained against Long Island and Mississippi State. Miss State put up 445 and 382 yards through the air, their high water mark for the year in passing yards. Those are some pretty piss poor defensive performances, all on the road against teams significantly inferior to Georgia. So we're going to assume they can shut down the Georgia offense? I think there's no way Georgia doesn't outgain Texas in this one, and it's probably going to be by a lot. Do you think Texas is going to be able to overcome that against Georgia, who many believe(with good reason) has the referees in their back pocket, and has luckboxed their way to misleading scores all year? No chance.
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Only UAB, Georgia State and Arizona State average more penalties per game than Texas. Uga may or may not be a good bet but there are definitely scenarios where the Texas D performs off the bye. But refs have definitely not been in the horns back pocket Having watched almost every single one of their games the opposite may be true
 
Br@ssknux said:
17. @Georgia -6 v Texas (BR) : Could this be the game that we finally can be rid of the possibility of Texas being in the playoff? I hope so. Normally when I am looking at a dog, I even a double digit dog, I try to come up with a scenario of them winning the game outright. In a lot of cases, you can make a reasonably good case for it and then you have the buffer of the points to back you up. I think people make mistakes when they assume a team is going to lose but are pretty sure it'll only be by 7 or less. If you can't make a case a team could win, you better be getting 2 TDs or more in my opinion. I see no scenario where Texas can go into Athens and win this game. They played a Georgia team that they were much better than on paper twice and couldn't get it done last year(once on their own field), and I don't think they have a shot this year either. Take a look at what Texas has done on the road in conference this year. The went to Florida and got completely dominated. I bet them that game and I can tell you they never had a shot. They were outgained 457 to 351. Then they went to Kentucky and got dominated again, only to sneak out of there with a win thanks to their punt returner. They were outgained 395-179 by a team that prior to that had lost 10 of their last 11 SEC games. Then they pulled another rabbit out of their hat after being down 38-21 in the 4th quarter against a Mississippi State team that had lost 15 straight SEC games. Texas can't run the ball and won't be able to against Georgia so the burden will fall on Arch Manning. He's been better lately, and Georgia's pass defense has been a weakness for the Dawgs, but I do not see any scenario where Arch has the fortitude to carry this team. Also, the Texas defense looks good on paper, but how much of that has been built on huge performances against terrible teams? How good are they? Well, in those SEC road games I referenced, they've been shit. Kentucky put up 395 yards on them, and prior to that, the Cats were the 103rd ranked offense in FBS. Florida put up 457 yards on them, their highest output of the year and more than they gained against Long Island and Mississippi State. Miss State put up 445 and 382 yards through the air, their high water mark for the year in passing yards. Those are some pretty piss poor defensive performances, all on the road against teams significantly inferior to Georgia. So we're going to assume they can shut down the Georgia offense? I think there's no way Georgia doesn't outgain Texas in this one, and it's probably going to be by a lot. Do you think Texas is going to be able to overcome that against Georgia, who many believe(with good reason) has the referees in their back pocket, and has luckboxed their way to misleading scores all year? No chance.
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Great stuff. Just, great info.
 
RetroRetrovk said:
Only UAB, Georgia State and Arizona State average more penalties per game than Texas. Uga may or may not be a good bet but there are definitely scenarios where the Texas D performs off the bye. But refs have definitely not been in the horns back pocket Having watched almost every single one of their games the opposite may be true
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I was making the point (or trying to) that Georgia has the refs in their pocket, which is an additional factor Texas will have to grapple with. I drone on so much sometimes that I get off the beaten path. Sorry about that.
 
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