Week 12 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback (Early this week)

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Usually I don't starting writing things up until Thursday night or Friday, and I've avoided the weeknight games for most of the season, but I have two that I can't avoid, so I'll get those out there this morning.

Just to recap last week again, I went 5-9, which included several games that never had a chance. In a lot of those, I still can't figure out why they worked out the way they did. If someone can explain to me what happened to Air Force, I'm here to listen. Actually, the entire week had a bunch of games that had really strange results, not just the ones I was on the wrong side of. It was a terrible week for teasers, and if you like betting double digit dogs, my condolences because many of them, especially of the Power 5 variety could not get a stop to save their lives. Just about everyone gave up 50+ or close to it.

Some crazy ones: Tulane has a 24-22 knock down drag out with a Tulsa team that has been completely non-competitive, including a recent 69-10 demolition against SMU.

Illinois and Indiana combine for 100+ points and Illinois backup John Paddock throws for 500+ yards. Indiana had previously spent most of their game against Penn State getting the better of the Nits and prior to that held Louisville and Ohio State in check.

One of the worst rush offenses in the country (Appy State) goes on the road and holds one of the best rush offenses (Georgia State) scoreless for 3 quarters enroute to a 42-14 laugher.

Tennessee's #7 rush defense gets humbled by walk on Cory Schrader, who in the process becomes the first SEC player in history to get 200+ rushing and 100+ receiving in the same game.

Northwestern not only beats Wisconsin at Wisconsin, but embarrasses them, converting 9/11 on 3rd down through 3 quarters.

Oklahoma State doesn't even show up in Orlando. It was a bad spot, and I liked it for UCF, but 45-3????

Arizona State forgets how to play defense at Utah one week(and getting outgained 560-71 or whatever), then, with no real quarterback and rotating running backs out of the wildcat for portions of the game, beats UCLA on the road 17-7.

Total record after the 5-9 week is 78-68 (.5342)


Western Michigan +5 LOSS
Oregon State -1 LOSS
West Virginia -6.5 WIN
Northwestern +3 WIN
Arizona -1 WIN
Duke -3 LOSS
Appalachian State +9.5 WIN
Georgia -9 WIN
UCLA +5 WIN
Stanford +7 LOSS
Florida Int +29.5 WIN
Syracuse +6.5 LOSS

7-5

1. Western Michigan +5 @Northern Illinois: I can't pass this one up. We have a couple major forces working in this one. First, NIU is absolutely helpless as a home favorite. They are now 1-10 ATS in that role since 2020. There are some instances where things become almost cosmic with teams in various roles, and NIU is one of the best examples. They're great as a road dog, they beat Ohio outright a few weeks ago as a home dog, but they cannot function as a home favorite. They're also 4-6 now despite having some pretty good metrics, so they are starting to look like a team that just finds ways to lose. On the other hand, first year coaches who have kind of righted the ship later in the year are good teams to hitch your wagon to, because kids don't give up on those guys in their first year, especially if the clouds are starting to part and the sun is peeking through on the program. That looks like the case with WMU. Hayden Wolf has looked pretty good recently, and their offense has piled up over 900 yards in their past 2 games, which they've won. Usually I try to avoid the weeknight games, and I've never been a fan of MACtion, but this is one I can't pass up


Well, WMU completely shit the bed, so NIU is now 2-10 as a home favorite. Shut out.


I'm gonna be on Oregon State regardless of the spread, just like everyone else, so I might as well get that out there now. Write up coming on that one probably later tonight.
 
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Well, off to a roaring start!!! Nice effort by WMU. NIU now 2-10 ATS as a road favorite since 2020.
 
2. @Oregon State -1 v Washington: After this one they'll be in chronological order like usual. I actually played this game on Sunday night at +1 for Oregon State. Since then it flipped and got all the way to -2.5 for the Beavers until it came back to this number. In all seriousness, it wouldn't have mattered what the number was because I was going to be playing the Beavers in this spot regardless. First and foremost, we all know the record Jonathan Smith has at Reser Stadium. Since 2021, his ATS record at home is 18-1. There is really no reason to ever *not* bet the Beavers at home until they prove the market has caught up to them. There's been a couple times where it looked like the value in this spot had passed us by, as their lines had started to get into the 20's but I didn't think so last week since they were such a bad matchup for Stanford and because Stanford had looked very competent in the weeks leading up to that game. This week, they are favored at home against undefeated Washington, but I think that is merited. Both teams are going to struggle to stop the other, but I looked hard for any reason to believe that Washington will be able to get stops against this Beaver offense(and especially running game) and I can't find any. The Oregon State rushing attack is one of the best in the country with the double barreled attack of Damien Martinez and Deshaun Fenwick reaching 1500 yards combined with a couple games left. The Beaver offensive line has by far the highest run blocking grade in the country, and stopping the run is a major issue for the Huskies on defense. Washington has given up 500 yards or close to it to virtually all of the above average offenses they've played, and that includes Cal and Stanford. OSU's offense is not one dimensional however, as DJU has been very good this year in the passing game. Silas Bolden and Anthony Gould have been explosive all year and TE Jack Velling is one of the most productive tight ends in the country. Washington is dead last in the country in sack rate, so it's not like DJ will be under duress to find open receivers if he needs to. It's obvious that the Beavers will also be behind the 8 ball against Penix and that Washington offense, but I like Oregon State's D a lot more than I do Washington's and they play a lot better at home. Washington has handled their business ultimately this year, but as we've talked about in the recent past, the Huskies have been living dangerously. I have a National Title ticket on Washington and it's stayed alive much longer than I thought, but I think they are cruising for a loss, and as a lot of people have surmised, this is the most likely place for it to come. It's just silly to not ride the Beavers here.

3 turnovers to 1 and a punt from the 50 turning into a safety ended up dooming the Beavers. You gotta hand it to Washington. 272 total yards and they found a way to win in the toughest venue in the PAC 12. Less than 600 yards total in this one. Who would have predicted that?
 
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3. @West Virginia -6.5 v Cincinnati: I bet on Cincinnati once this year and wrote them up when they played at home against Oklahoma early in the year. I was lucky to get a push on that one, but they made enough of an impression on me in that game to avoid being on them again, and I was able to come through on that. The hire of Satterfield by Cincy was curious because pretty much everyone knew that Louisville had grown tired of him and the undisciplined and inconsistent ways that his teams played. Well, after year one, he's Cincinnati's problem now because this was a team that consistently found ways to lose. They've outgained their opponents by 80 yards per game yet find themselves at 3-7. Specifically, they've managed to outgain Miami(OH) by 180 yards and lose by 8, outgain BYU by 203 yards and lose by 8, outgained a terrible Baylor team by 54 yards at home and lost outright, and outgain UCF by 122 yards and lose outright. Finally last week they came across a team with a dipshit coach who's just as unreliable as them(Houston) and finally....HEY they won. They've also been outgained a few times, and in those games they were unsurprisingly run off the field. West Virginia comes into this game at 6-4 but off an embarrassing effort last week in Norman in which they gave up 59 points and 600+ yards. Although Cincy has outgained most of their opponents on the year, I don't see that happening this week as the Mountaineers should have the edges on the line of scrimmage. Also, Garrett Greene come into the season with more of a running reputation than as a thrower, but he's been pretty good with a 12/3 ratio and averaging 8.1 yards per attempt. He's also managed 18 big time throws vs only 7 turnover worthy plays and remains a good running threat. West Virginia has been playing with a chip on their shoulder all year after being picked for las in the Big 12 and hey have a chance to win 8 games if they get this one and win next week at Baylor. They're 10-3-2 ATS as a home favorite since Neal Brown got there in 2019, so their in a role they handle well. This looks like a good spot to fade Cincy in their second straight road game coming off a game in which they looked competent. With Satterfield, I think the chances of that happening in consecutive weeks is unlikely.

I like the rocking chair games. Let Satterfield and Emory Jones do their magic and sit back and watch.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
3. @West Virginia -6.5 v Cincinnati: I bet on Cincinnati once this year and wrote them up when they played at home against Oklahoma early in the year. I was lucky to get a push on that one, but they made enough of an impression on me in that game to avoid being on them again, and I was able to come through on that. The hire of Satterfield by Cincy was curious because pretty much everyone knew that Louisville had grown tired of him and the undisciplined and inconsistent ways that his teams played. Well, after year one, he's Cincinnati's problem now because this was a team that consistently found ways to lose. They've outgained their opponents by 80 yards per game yet find themselves at 3-7. Specifically, they've managed to outgain Miami(OH) by 180 yards and lose by 8, outgain BYU by 203 yards and lose by 8, outgained a terrible Baylor team by 54 yards at home and lost outright, and outgain UCF by 122 yards and lose outright. Finally last week they came across a team with a dipshit coach who's just as unreliable as them(Houston) and finally....HEY they won. They've also been outgained a few times, and in those games they were unsurprisingly run off the field. West Virginia comes into this game at 6-4 but off an embarrassing effort last week in Norman in which they gave up 59 points and 600+ yards. Although Cincy has outgained most of their opponents on the year, I don't see that happening this week as the Mountaineers should have the edges on the line of scrimmage. Also, Garrett Greene come into the season with more of a running reputation than as a thrower, but he's been pretty good with a 12/3 ratio and averaging 8.1 yards per attempt. He's also managed 18 big time throws vs only 7 turnover worthy plays and remains a good running threat. West Virginia has been playing with a chip on their shoulder all year after being picked for las in the Big 12 and hey have a chance to win 8 games if they get this one and win next week at Baylor. They're 10-3-2 ATS as a home favorite since Neal Brown got there in 2019, so their in a role they handle well. This looks like a good spot to fade Cincy in their second straight road game coming off a game in which they looked competent. With Satterfield, I think the chances of that happening in consecutive weeks is unlikely.
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Concentration heavy this game for myself
 
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4. Northwestern +3(-119) v Purdue: The 3 is fleeting here, but it's still available in a few spots. When we started the season, the Cats were assumed to be one of the worst teams in FBS based on how they'd performed over the past couple of years and all he upheaval caused by the hazing allegations in the program. Reality has mostly been a different story, however, as the Cats have been able to blend in with the mopes of the Big Ten West well enough to have a shot at a bowl if they win one of their final 2 games. This is their last home game, so this is their best shot to pull that off, and it would be a heck of a feather in the program's cap and a good commentary on the perseverance of the players who all could have jumped ship. Northwestern has already beaten Minnesota and Maryland at home and Wisconsin on the road, all three of whom who are as good if not better than Purdue. Purdue has had a couple of nice efforts this year, including last week at home against Minnesota, but I don't see them as worthy of being a road favorite in this game. These two teams match up very closely, and I think Northwestern has edges in the right spots. Defensively, they've been good pretty much all year, ranking 34th in yards per play and 23rd in yards per pass attempt. The two things they do pretty well on offense is convert on 3rd down and their QBs have been pretty efficient, combining for 14/5 ratio. They are coming off a very inspiring effort in a domination of Wisconsin in Madison, and the Badgers had Tanner Mordecai back in that game, so you can't make excuses for the Badger offense in that one. Ultimately, the Cats look like slightly the better team here so I'll take the points with the home team.

Got a lucky break when Hudson Card was ruled out. I didn't know that can happen IN MY FAVOR. I've had about 100 unhappy surprises. It was good to get a happy one. NW covered the flipped line too.
 
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5. @Arizona -1 v Utah: I held off on backing Arizona last week because I didn't know how they'd handle the road favorite's role, and it's a good thing because Colorado managed yet another cover. Now Arizona heads back home against a solid but flawed Utah team. Arizona's defense matches up well against Utah's defense because the Utes need to run, and nobody has really run the ball effectively on the Wildcats all year. The best rushing performance they've given up was to Oregon State a few weeks ago and that Beaver rushing attack only managed 4.4 yards per carry. That's the most they've given up on a per carry basis all year. Utah's offense is banged up(especially Utah RB JaQuinden Jackson, and it looks like Sione Vaki is sticking around on the defense, so I don't think Utah is likely to buck the trend. Arizona has had some issues with their pass defense, but Utah isn't really built to expose any issues there anyway. Offensively, the Cats will have their work cut out for them because Utah is clearly a good defense, but Utah has made it's bones on defense this year feasting on backup QBs and good spots. Wen they've faced the better offenses in the Pac 12, they've given up yards (Oregon State, Oregon, Washington) and I think this Arizona offense will resemble those units more than they will UCLA, Cal, Arizona State, etc. Utah is out of the conference race but Arizona still can make the Pac 12 title game with help if hey win out. It's been awhile since they've been on mostly equal footing with Utah, so they'll be motivated. Utah is similar in makeup to UCLA, who I mistakenly thought would have success against Arizona, and I was dead wrong on that one. I think the Wildcats win this one.

Another rocking chair game. This one was 28-0 with 11 minutes left in the first half. Good call here.
 
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6. Duke -3 (-115) @Virginia: Although Virginia has been plucky, and they've actually had some success as a home dog, this is a bad matchup for them. Duke has really struggled over the past 5 or 6 weeks, which coincided with the Riley Leonard injury, but another reason was that they were playing high quality teams that could stop the run and could run the ball on them, which are their weak spots. That's not the case with Virginia. Overall, they rank 97th in yards per play on offense, and 103rd in yards per play on defense, not great on either side. However, they are even worse stopping the run on defense(114th) and running the ball(126th) on offense. Duke wants to run almost exclusively, and they are extremely good in coverage and against the pass overall. UVa's passing attack is what has been keeping them in games, and they have been decent stopping the pass. Duke matches up perfectly with those "strengths". Also, Duke is looking for a get right game, as they still have a shot to get to 8 wins, something the program is not used to reaching. Also, UVa has been successful recently on the road, but mostly as a very sizable underdog where they haven't gotten the bored favorites best shot. They'll have Duke's attention here, and I think Elko will have them ready to go.

Forced this due to the matchup. UVa has been plucky, good for them. I was biased in favor of Duke. They turned out to not be worthy of the bias.
 
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7. Appalachian State +9.5 @James Madison: This spot is right in Appy State's wheelhouse, a sizable underdog against a ranked team. JMU doesn't typically profile as this type of team, but that's what they are. Appalachian State is 4-0-1 over the past 3 seasons as a road dog and 8-1-1 if you go back to 2018. They've had some bad performances this year, but not in this role, and not lately. The Mountaineers have been terrible defending the run this year, but in the last 2 weeks they've figured something out defensively, especially last week when they completely bottled up one of the top rushing offenses in the Sun Belt, Georgia State and held them to only 3 yards per carry on 47 attempts. Go figure: they were a dog in that game too. JMU has been great en route to an undefeated season so far, but the majority of their wins were by less than this spread. Nobody can run on JMU and Appy State likes to run it, but they are far from one dimensional. QB Joey Aguilar has a 26/7 ratio and averages almost 9 yards per attempt. It's not ideal to find yourself against JMU, but they've had lots of close games this year and if anyone is going to knock them off in the Sun Belt it'll be Appy State in this role.

Outright winner. These guys will not be denied as dogs. As favorites, they don't mind the denial, but they're money in the dog role.
 
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8. Georgia -9 @Tennessee: Recency bias is a very dangerous thing, and I swear, really, I am NOT still reeling from the feelings of nausea I had last week while watching that Tennessee effort in Columbia. Well, maybe I am a little bit, as are about 95% of the people compelled to make a bet on this game. Believe it or not, though, I still see Georgia as a value play, although it would seem that both teams are on opposite sides of the market. Last year, Tennessee was a 9 or 10 point dog at home against Alabama. They won that game outright, but if last year's Alabama squad was a 9 point road favorite over the Hendon Hooker/Jalin Hyatt/Cedric Tillman/healthy Bru McCoy Tennessee team, 2023 Georgia can certainly be a 9 point favorite over a Tennessee team capable of THAT effort last week quarterbacked by Joe Milton. Georgia has locked increasingly good in the passing game as Tennessee has shown more chinks in the armor defending it. Also, I don't think the Vols will be able to get any 3rd down stops. If Tennessee's running game looks anything close to the one that was on display in Columbia, I don't think this one will be close.

Slow start, but they roared back.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
8. Georgia -9 @Tennessee: Recency bias is a very dangerous thing, and I swear, really, I am NOT still reeling from the feelings of nausea I had last week while watching that Tennessee effort in Columbia. Well, maybe I am a little bit, as are about 95% of the people compelled to make a bet on this game. Believe it or not, though, I still see Georgia as a value play, although it would seem that both teams are on opposite sides of the market. Last year, Tennessee was a 9 or 10 point dog at home against Alabama. They won that game outright, but if last year's Alabama squad was a 9 point road favorite over the Hendon Hooker/Jalin Hyatt/Cedric Tillman/healthy Bru McCoy Tennessee team, 2023 Georgia can certainly be a 9 point favorite over a Tennessee team capable of THAT effort last week quarterbacked by Joe Milton. Georgia has locked increasingly good in the passing game as Tennessee has shown more chinks in the armor defending it. Also, I don't think the Vols will be able to get any 3rd down stops. If Tennessee's running game looks anything close to the one that was on display in Columbia, I don't think this one will be close.
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Touche
 
9. UCLA +5 @USC: Here's another strange effort from last week, but I think there's reason to believe we'll see a bounce back from the Bruins. I've heard the whispers that Chip Kelly is on the way out, but I show a pretty significant edge for the Bruins on paper in this one, so I'll definitely take the points. UCLA's offense was an embarrassment last week, but they haven't been that for most of the season. Like every other mildly competent offensive team, they should have success against this USC defense, and I suspect they will. Also, the UCLA defense should absolutely own the line of scrimmage in this one, and their pass rush will have Caleb Williams looking to improvise, which hasn't worked out all that great for the Trojans this year. USC isn't going to be able to run it on the #3 defense either. The key here will be if UCLA can get something going on offense. Last week they got killed by penalties and went 0-4 on 4th down in their loss to Arizona State, but they'll be getting class relief in the form of the USC defense regardless of who plays QB. The bruins have struggled offensively against Utah, Arizona State and Arizona, but have averaged 492 yards per game against the rest of their FBS schedule(Colorado, San Diego State, Stanford, Oregon State and Washington State), defenses that more closely resemble USC. These two defenses aren't in the same stratosphere, so I'll take the vastly superior defense and the points.

Probably the best handicap of the week. USC never had a prayer to stop them and their D line gave Williams fits all day.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
9. UCLA +5 @USC: Here's another strange effort from last week, but I think there's reason to believe we'll see a bounce back from the Bruins. I've heard the whispers that Chip Kelly is on the way out, but I show a pretty significant edge for the Bruins on paper in this one, so I'll definitely take the points. UCLA's offense was an embarrassment last week, but they haven't been that for most of the season. Like every other mildly competent offensive team, they should have success against this USC defense, and I suspect they will. Also, the UCLA defense should absolutely own the line of scrimmage in this one, and their pass rush will have Caleb Williams looking to improvise, which hasn't worked out all that great for the Trojans this year. USC isn't going to be able to run it on the #3 defense either. The key here will be if UCLA can get something going on offense. Last week they got killed by penalties and went 0-4 on 4th down in their loss to Arizona State, but they'll be getting class relief in the form of the USC defense regardless of who plays QB. The bruins have struggled offensively against Utah, Arizona State and Arizona, but have averaged 492 yards per game against the rest of their FBS schedule(Colorado, San Diego State, Stanford, Oregon State and Washington State), defenses that more closely resemble USC. These two defenses aren't in the same stratosphere, so I'll take the vastly superior defense and the points.
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Like the cap a lot.

The turmoil rumors are my concern. It does seem chip is all but gone. There seemingly will be a large portal exodus as well.

That's not to say USC is exactly on steady ground. To no surprise for the cappers here, they have not had a great year. Can they pull it together here?

Intriguing game. I feel like a UCLA team total will be my lean.

Best of luck.
 
10 @Stanford +7 v Cal: Cal has won 2 conference games this year. They beat Washington State by 3 last week and earlier in the year they beat an Arizona State team that a the time appeared to be an unfunny joke by 3. Now they are laying 7 at Stanford, a team that has been steadily improving. The Stanford defense has been mostly terrible this year, but they have had some resistance against the run, with a couple of examples against Washington State and Washington in back to back weeks before Oregon State's run offense humbled them. Cal will have the edge there, but Stanford will have a major edge in the pass game going against the #119 ranked defense in yards per attempt allowed. Elic Ayomanor has been one of the top WRs in the country over 5 or 6 I don't trust Cal to cover a TD on the road in a rivalry game. If Stanford can be a little creative in stopping he run, I think this Cardinal offense will be able to move the ball through the air against Cal, and it will be hard for Cal to cover the TD if Stanford keeps cashing in.

I'll have to look at this box score, but it appears Stanford just couldn't get much going on the offensive side.
 
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11. Florida International +29.5 @Arkansas: I think at this point Arkansas would have a hard time covering at home against any random collection of adult males wearing football uniforms. Consider the last 4 teams the Hogs have played at home. They didn't come close to covering against Kent State, who is considered one of the 2 or 3 worst teams in FBS and hasn't covered another FBS game all year, they lost outright to BYU, who since then has been nothing more than a Big 12 punching bag, they somehow lost at home to a complete cadaver of a team in Mississippi State, where things got so bad they had to fire their coach only 2 weeks after they beat Arkansas and held them to 3(!!!) points. Lastly they were completely humiliated by an Auburn team who could have played their walk ons the entire second half and still won by 20+. I'm not sure where Sam Pittman stands, but it seems like the only motivation any players from Arkansas have is showing out for the transfer portal. Florida International is obviously not good, but at least they have a few wins and I'm pretty sure they can beat Kent State. Their pass offense isn't bad and coach Mike McIntyre is no dummy. That's about all I can come up with in defense of the Panthers, but this is certainly a fade of a dead Arkansas team that seemingly can't get out of their own way against anyone at home. If they were getting 6 at Kentucky, this would be a totally different story.

FIU got some terrible calls against them and a couple of big turnover plays, but they managed the cover.
 
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12. Syracuse +6.5 @Georgia Tech: Syracuse has burned me a couple times this year, but they are coming off a nice performance in the Bronx against Pitt in a game that they ran the ball down Pitt's throats. Also, we can't pass on the opportunity to fade Georgia Tech as a home favorite. They're 1-8 in the role since 2021, 1-10 since 2019. This year they were favored against FBS teams twice, and both Bowling Green and Boston College beat them outright by double digits. Again, it's an almost cosmic force that seems to be working against the Yellowjackets in this spot. They definitely need the win, because they need another one to become bowl eligible and Georgia is on deck, but so does Syracuse. The Orange should be in good shape offensively because they have run the ball well recently and Tech ranks 129th in stopping the run. Overall, Tech is 121st in yards per play and it's always hard to cover margin when your defense is that bad. Garrett Schrader played last week but didn't throw it much, so we'll see what kind of plan the Orange comes out with, but if they stick to the run, Tech hasn't really stopped it all year.

Georgia Tech wasn't really trying to score at the end and they did anyway. Syracuse killed me this year.
 
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Cutting room floor:

The theme this week here was finding great spots to fade some teams, but then looking at who the opponent was and losing gumption.

I think Michigan State looks dead as a doornail, and they have no passing game whatsoever to lean on. I liked Indiana because I think they have the profile to sack up here at home, but I am scared to death of them as a favorite. So I passed.

It's the ultimate sandwich spot for Michigan, but who can trust Mike Locksley at this time of year after the horse is out of the barn? They competed against Ohio State last year, but Michigan has a way of just ending things early for teams.

I wanted Rutgers, but that offense has no chance against Penn State and their defense gave up 400 to Iowa last week somehow. Penn State has also pummeled them since Schiano has been back so it's a pass for me.

I chickened out on FAU, but I think that's the side. Tulane has been completely uninterested lately. How do you get outgained by 100+ at home against Tulsa? Prior to that they had a 2 point win against Rice and a 3 point win against a high school veer offense in ECU. Now they are supposed to cover 9 on the road with UTSA on deck? FAU's shenanigans scared me off but I think I'm gonna regret not writing that one up.

Navy never covers or for that matter, wins as a home favorite, but have you seen ECU's offense? Even when they beat FAU last week they barely managed 200 yards. Will probably throw ECU in a round robin or something.

Southern Miss got to 18? Had that been available last night I might have written it up. They've kind of turned a corner recently, and if Mike White is playing QB, Miss State struggles to score against a bunch of traffic cones. 14 seemed a little too light, but I'll probably be on USM at 18.

Wanted to fade Colorado State who stinks as a home favorite, but I ain't betting my hard earned money on Nevada.

I do have a play on Temple. Both teams should move the ball, especially since EJ Warner is back. Temple pretty bad on the road though, and UAB has hurt me this year.

Should have played VT at a short number against that NC State offense, but the Pack has been lucky this year and their defense can certainly shut down VT so I passed.

I could write on the Illinois/Iowa way more than you'd want to read. At the end of the day Bielema as a road dog in conference has been too good to fade, but I fully expect Iowa to win this game. Illinois won't be able to run it because Keaden Feagin is almost certainly out, and Iowa pass offense is way too good to expect another passing explosion from the Illini. Also, I'm scared to death of this clutching and grabbing Illinois secondary. They're dumb enough to gift Iowa first downs by holding on 3rd and 13.

Auburn went too high for me and Houston and Minnesota fell under key numbers for me to fore on those, but they were on my radar.

Still deciding on K State/Kansas...wanted to lay with K State, but with my luck Daniels suits up and the Wildcats have struggled as a road favorite this year.

Florida is up to 12. I think they can score on Mizzou, but that Mizzou team has killed me on both sides this year so I know when I'm beaten.


Hope everyone has a great week.
 
Br@ssknux said:
8. Georgia -9 @Tennessee: Recency bias is a very dangerous thing, and I swear, really, I am NOT still reeling from the feelings of nausea I had last week while watching that Tennessee effort in Columbia. Well, maybe I am a little bit, as are about 95% of the people compelled to make a bet on this game. Believe it or not, though, I still see Georgia as a value play, although it would seem that both teams are on opposite sides of the market. Last year, Tennessee was a 9 or 10 point dog at home against Alabama. They won that game outright, but if last year's Alabama squad was a 9 point road favorite over the Hendon Hooker/Jalin Hyatt/Cedric Tillman/healthy Bru McCoy Tennessee team, 2023 Georgia can certainly be a 9 point favorite over a Tennessee team capable of THAT effort last week quarterbacked by Joe Milton. Georgia has locked increasingly good in the passing game as Tennessee has shown more chinks in the armor defending it. Also, I don't think the Vols will be able to get any 3rd down stops. If Tennessee's running game looks anything close to the one that was on display in Columbia, I don't think this one will be close.
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Tough to argue any of that. This feels like a game that no matter the outcome, it will look obvious in hindsight. Like if Tenn is able to run the ball well, and get to Carson Beck, the crowd stays in it, a close game makes sense and everyone will say they should've seen it coming. Likewise, if Tenn can't do anything on offense and can't get stops, UGA winning 45-10 would also seem like the obvious outcome. I lean more toward UGA blowing them out as well. Good luck today Brass.
 
gps_3 said:
Tough to argue any of that. This feels like a game that no matter the outcome, it will look obvious in hindsight. Like if Tenn is able to run the ball well, and get to Carson Beck, the crowd stays in it, a close game makes sense and everyone will say they should've seen it coming. Likewise, if Tenn can't do anything on offense and can't get stops, UGA winning 45-10 would also seem like the obvious outcome. I lean more toward UGA blowing them out as well. Good luck today Brass.
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Thanks GPS. Agree with that sentiment. Just have a hard time seeing things working out for the Vols. I've been wrong on that kind of thing a lot though. Best of luck to you too. Bama should be ok. Hopefully no shit through a tin horn.
 
Br@ssknux said:
12. Syracuse +6.5 @Georgia Tech: Syracuse has burned me a couple times this year, but they are coming off a nice performance in the Bronx against Pitt in a game that they ran the ball down Pitt's throats. Also, we can't pass on the opportunity to fade Georgia Tech as a home favorite. They're 1-8 in the role since 2021, 1-10 since 2019. This year they were favored against FBS teams twice, and both Bowling Green and Boston College beat them outright by double digits. Again, it's an almost cosmic force that seems to be working against the Yellowjackets in this spot. They definitely need the win, because they need another one to become bowl eligible and Georgia is on deck, but so does Syracuse. The Orange should be in good shape offensively because they have run the ball well recently and Tech ranks 129th in stopping the run. Overall, Tech is 121st in yards per play and it's always hard to cover margin when your defense is that bad. Garrett Schrader played last week but didn't throw it much, so we'll see what kind of plan the Orange comes out with, but if they stick to the run, Tech hasn't really stopped it all year.
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Shrader is severely limited. It’s a bad spot for Tech, but at least they get to see film of what Syracuse came up with last week to compensate for Shrader’s injury.
 
gps_3 said:
Tough to argue any of that. This feels like a game that no matter the outcome, it will look obvious in hindsight. Like if Tenn is able to run the ball well, and get to Carson Beck, the crowd stays in it, a close game makes sense and everyone will say they should've seen it coming. Likewise, if Tenn can't do anything on offense and can't get stops, UGA winning 45-10 would also seem like the obvious outcome. I lean more toward UGA blowing them out as well. Good luck today Brass.
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Yep
 
M.W. said:
Shrader is severely limited. It’s a bad spot for Tech, but at least they get to see film of what Syracuse came up with last week to compensate for Shrader’s injury.
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And in saying this, I should acknowledge the source, which is Syracuse Joe over at Blankets.
 
Br@ssknux said:
4. Northwestern +3(-119) v Purdue: The 3 is fleeting here, but it's still available in a few spots. When we started the season, the Cats were assumed to be one of the worst teams in FBS based on how they'd performed over the past couple of years and all he upheaval caused by the hazing allegations in the program. Reality has mostly been a different story, however, as the Cats have been able to blend in with the mopes of the Big Ten West well enough to have a shot at a bowl if they win one of their final 2 games. This is their last home game, so this is their best shot to pull that off, and it would be a heck of a feather in the program's cap and a good commentary on the perseverance of the players who all could have jumped ship. Northwestern has already beaten Minnesota and Maryland at home and Wisconsin on the road, all three of whom who are as good if not better than Purdue. Purdue has had a couple of nice efforts this year, including last week at home against Minnesota, but I don't see them as worthy of being a road favorite in this game. These two teams match up very closely, and I think Northwestern has edges in the right spots. Defensively, they've been good pretty much all year, ranking 34th in yards per play and 23rd in yards per pass attempt. The two things they do pretty well on offense is convert on 3rd down and their QBs have been pretty efficient, combining for 14/5 ratio. They are coming off a very inspiring effort in a domination of Wisconsin in Madison, and the Badgers had Tanner Mordecai back in that game, so you can't make excuses for the Badger offense in that one. Ultimately, the Cats look like slightly the better team here so I'll take the points with the home team.
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Down to -2.5 Interesting
 
Well, 3 of the most consistent trends were all at play this week. I played all three

Northern Illinois never comes as a home favorite. (1-10 ATS in last 11 in that role). They covered as a home favorite. (Now 2-10)

Oregon State was 15-1 ATS in their last 16 at home. They lost as a 1 point favorite. (Now 15-2)

Georgia Tech was 1-10 ATS in their last 11 as a home favorite. They covered as a home favorite. (Now 2-10 in that role)

0-3 on the best trends there are. All in the same week. I was lucky I eeked out a 7-5 week. (85-73 for the year). Shitty close to the night, but you can never complain about a positive week.
 
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