Funny. Exactly
Week 12 What Are We Learning
- Thread starter VirginiaCavs
- Start date
Two Utes
Manual Toothbrushes FTW
I'm still pissed about that garbage effort if you can't tell.
Yeah i haven't seen Utah alot but he seemed so off. Definitely agree he cost them the game.
MrMulligan
Pretty much a regular
Lowest postgame win expectancy in a win, Week 12:
Vandy > Florida 8% (a Billy Special)
Utah State > SJSU 9%
Wake > Syracuse?? 21%
Navy > UCF 23% (a Navy Special)
VT > Liberty 31%
Michigan > Illinois 37%
BGSU > Toledo 39% (a Toledo Special)
GT > UNC 41%
TXST > Ark St 49%
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Cal -4.5 was covering the game for a total of :58 seconds, the last :58 seconds. Cal was winning 20-17 after scoring on a 40y scoop-score. Several minutes later, Stanford was attempting a drive, but threw INT at the 49 yard line which was ret'd to the S09 with just over 2min left. Stanford had just 1 timeout. Cal ran twice and on 3rd down scored a TD with just :58 left to go up 27-17. Stanford now down 2 scores thought it would be wise to attempt a 61y FG with :05 left, which they made, that sent the game Over.
Ohio State's D TD in the final seconds vs Maryland covered the 2H line
WKU scored a 27y TD on a screen pass with :06 left to cover the 1H
USC - UCLA 1H was 21-17 just Under the Total of 38.5/39.5 when UCLA threw an INT with :14 left. 1 play later and USC was able to make a 49y FG to make the score 21-20
Georgia State led 27-7 and 34-14 HT at James Madison. Ga St scored twice on D a week after having two non-offensive TDs scored against them. But JMU would come back to lead 35-34 and 42-34. After going 3-and-out 5x and 2-and-out-fumble on their six 2H possessions, Ga St put a drive together and scored with 2-1/2 minutes left, but their 2pt failed and JMU recovered the onside kick. JMU outgained them 425-257
The only Big Xll home team to win this week was Oklahoma who jumped out 28-0 in the 1st Q, then would not score again
Ohio State's D TD in the final seconds vs Maryland covered the 2H line
WKU scored a 27y TD on a screen pass with :06 left to cover the 1H
USC - UCLA 1H was 21-17 just Under the Total of 38.5/39.5 when UCLA threw an INT with :14 left. 1 play later and USC was able to make a 49y FG to make the score 21-20
Georgia State led 27-7 and 34-14 HT at James Madison. Ga St scored twice on D a week after having two non-offensive TDs scored against them. But JMU would come back to lead 35-34 and 42-34. After going 3-and-out 5x and 2-and-out-fumble on their six 2H possessions, Ga St put a drive together and scored with 2-1/2 minutes left, but their 2pt failed and JMU recovered the onside kick. JMU outgained them 425-257
The only Big Xll home team to win this week was Oklahoma who jumped out 28-0 in the 1st Q, then would not score again
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
UNC led 17-0, but Georgia Tech outgained UNC 373-365 and came back to win 21-17. The story was GT D getting 6 sacks/12 TFLs, UNC just 4-of-14 on 3rd down and UNC only scoring 1 TD on 5 RZ trips. UNC had a 60-something TD run called back by penalty and with 4:10 left in the game Downs dropped a catch at the goal line in a 4 pt game. UNC never saw the ball again as GT converted 3rd-4, 3rd-9 and 3rd-1 while they ran the clock out. GT won without their best offensive player WR Nate McCollum and rotating a combination of Akron transfer QB Gibson (13-18-174-0-0) and Clemson transfer QB Phommachanh (first game of year 10 rush 44y with TD - 2-of-5 passing for 12y).
One week after Wisconsin outgained Iowa 227-146, this week MInnesota outgained Iowa 399-280. Minnesota turned it over on their final two drives of the game when the score was 10-10 late. Ibrahim fumbled at the I09 (his 14th carry of that drive), but Iowa went 3-and-out and Minnesota had it back at the M45 with 4:11 left. They did the one thing they couldn't do, turn it over, Minn passed on 3rd-7 from the I33, the CB contested the catch the ball was tipped up and LB Campbell INT'd it and Iowa nearly had their 5th defensive TD of the year on the return, but they ruled he stepped OOB at the M45 (he may not have), but Iowa hit one 33y pass and 3 runs later they made a 21y FG with :28 left to win it. 2H yardage was 226-110 for Minn. 2nd Q Minny outgained them 142-45. Iowa's most productive Q of O was the 1st when they had a 125-31 yardage edge (7.81-3.10 ypp).
One week after Wisconsin outgained Iowa 227-146, this week MInnesota outgained Iowa 399-280. Minnesota turned it over on their final two drives of the game when the score was 10-10 late. Ibrahim fumbled at the I09 (his 14th carry of that drive), but Iowa went 3-and-out and Minnesota had it back at the M45 with 4:11 left. They did the one thing they couldn't do, turn it over, Minn passed on 3rd-7 from the I33, the CB contested the catch the ball was tipped up and LB Campbell INT'd it and Iowa nearly had their 5th defensive TD of the year on the return, but they ruled he stepped OOB at the M45 (he may not have), but Iowa hit one 33y pass and 3 runs later they made a 21y FG with :28 left to win it. 2H yardage was 226-110 for Minn. 2nd Q Minny outgained them 142-45. Iowa's most productive Q of O was the 1st when they had a 125-31 yardage edge (7.81-3.10 ypp).
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s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Sean Tucker had his best game since very early in the season. He did it with about the same number of attempts he has been seeing on average in the other ACC+Notre Dame games. He was averaging 13 attempts and 57y in those prior 6 games. Vs Wake Forest he had 16 attempts and 106y with a TD. 5 of those attempts (31%) and 41 of the yards (38%) were on the opening drive. That means on Syracuse's other 11 possessions in the game he had just 11att-65y. I still feel, as do many other Syracuse critics, that he is underutilized. He had zero catches for the first time all year.
MrMulligan
Pretty much a regular
It's based on the specific underlying stats, etc. of that game...who should've/would normally win if played 100X (like a simulation based on the actual underlying game facts). Assuming it's focus is on the same numbers Bill uses for his S&P+ projections. (Turnovers, inopportune penalties, etc. "luck based stats" are deemphasized.)
Ex. Gators 3rd string punt returner trying to field a punt inside his own 5 that was recovered for Vandy TD. (Based on game stats...Gators were expected to score 40 points.)
MrMulligan
Pretty much a regular
I bet on USU...so Bill's crazy there, though. :tiphat
Just another capping tool that shows team(s) that underperformed/overperformed their actual game result W/L.)
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Arizona outgained Wazzou 441-354, but threw 4 INTs and lost by 11 (Zona scored late and covered the 2H line)
Ole Miss put up 703 yards on Arksansas! Hogs had 503 of their own. Ole Miss outrushed them463-335!, but lost 27--42 as they were -3 TOs. Man those are some crazy numbers.
UConn outgained Army by 50 yards but lost as they were -2 TOs
WKU outgained Auburn by 11y, lost by 24, were -2 TOs - Auburn only completed 9-of-20 passes
Baylor outgained TCU 501-442 - but TCU had a 8.6 to 6.6 ypp advantage.
BYU only led Utah Tech 28-20 HT.
Western Mich did outgain Central Mich in the snow last week by about 100y, but CM was -2 TOs while WM didn't turn it over at all
Wow - Clemson outgained Miami 447-98!
Houston outgained ECU by 200y in their 42-3 win
Iowa State outgained Texas Tech 422-246, but lost 10-14. 10 pts on 422 yards, that seems hard to do.
Texas ran for 426 on KU!
Eastern Mich outgained Kent by about 100y and won 31-24 despite trailing at HT.
Liberty outgained Virginia Tech narrowly, but were -2 TOs in a 1 pt loss
LSU had 300 more yards on UAB and were -2 TOs in the 31 pt win
Maryland outgained Ohio State by 1 yard, lost by 13 (OSU had that INT TD in teh final seconds)
Wisconsin had a 318-171 total yard edge on Nebraska, but still needed a TD in the final minute to get the win
Boston College lost 5 TOs and ND outgained them 437-173 (281-56 rushing)
Oklahoma State outgained OU by 50 yards, lost by 15. Ok St lost 4 TOs, but OU turned it over twice so OSU was -2 TO margin
Northwestern was -4 TOs in their 9-17 loss at Purdue
South Alabama had a 411-298 total yard edge over Southern Miss, but lost 3 TOs (net -2) and only won by 7
Cincy outgained Temple 388-202 and Temple lost 4 TOs in the 20 pt loss
SMU outgained Tulane by 20 yards, 470-450, but were -4 net TOs. 212 of SMU's yards came on their final 3 drives of the game.
USC did outgain UCLA 649-513, but UCLA was net -4 TOs
Utah State outgained San Jose 430-341 and won despite being -2 TO margin
UTEP outgained FIU 525-71! 71! FIU had 5 first downs! 5!
Ole Miss put up 703 yards on Arksansas! Hogs had 503 of their own. Ole Miss outrushed them463-335!, but lost 27--42 as they were -3 TOs. Man those are some crazy numbers.
UConn outgained Army by 50 yards but lost as they were -2 TOs
WKU outgained Auburn by 11y, lost by 24, were -2 TOs - Auburn only completed 9-of-20 passes
Baylor outgained TCU 501-442 - but TCU had a 8.6 to 6.6 ypp advantage.
BYU only led Utah Tech 28-20 HT.
Western Mich did outgain Central Mich in the snow last week by about 100y, but CM was -2 TOs while WM didn't turn it over at all
Wow - Clemson outgained Miami 447-98!
Houston outgained ECU by 200y in their 42-3 win
Iowa State outgained Texas Tech 422-246, but lost 10-14. 10 pts on 422 yards, that seems hard to do.
Texas ran for 426 on KU!
Eastern Mich outgained Kent by about 100y and won 31-24 despite trailing at HT.
Liberty outgained Virginia Tech narrowly, but were -2 TOs in a 1 pt loss
LSU had 300 more yards on UAB and were -2 TOs in the 31 pt win
Maryland outgained Ohio State by 1 yard, lost by 13 (OSU had that INT TD in teh final seconds)
Wisconsin had a 318-171 total yard edge on Nebraska, but still needed a TD in the final minute to get the win
Boston College lost 5 TOs and ND outgained them 437-173 (281-56 rushing)
Oklahoma State outgained OU by 50 yards, lost by 15. Ok St lost 4 TOs, but OU turned it over twice so OSU was -2 TO margin
Northwestern was -4 TOs in their 9-17 loss at Purdue
South Alabama had a 411-298 total yard edge over Southern Miss, but lost 3 TOs (net -2) and only won by 7
Cincy outgained Temple 388-202 and Temple lost 4 TOs in the 20 pt loss
SMU outgained Tulane by 20 yards, 470-450, but were -4 net TOs. 212 of SMU's yards came on their final 3 drives of the game.
USC did outgain UCLA 649-513, but UCLA was net -4 TOs
Utah State outgained San Jose 430-341 and won despite being -2 TO margin
UTEP outgained FIU 525-71! 71! FIU had 5 first downs! 5!
