Week 12 Thoughts and Plays

[E.T.G.]

Ahh week 11 was a rough one for me. Had the side right on both Nevada and Hawaii, I just opted to make 1st half plays and both teams end up covering on the 2nd half.. On a bright note, I am 3-0 on P.O.W since I started posting them. Here we go with Week 12

Tues Night Action:
Liked Toledo -3, not so sure I like them -5. They cashed for me last week but I will hold off on this game until later tomorrow. You never know with the MAC, you might end up getting 6 additional points before gametime like last weeks game which opened -7.5 and rose to -13.5

Wednes Night Action:
They really picked a great game to feature here. I more than likely will be sitting this snoozer out, maybe an under play.

Thurs Night:
I like WVU here and will wait for the line to stop falling. I love anything under 10 which it could get to. Currently sitting at -10.5.. Pitt has fallen off these last few weeks. Yes this game is a huge rivalry game but WVU still has a reason to play the rest of this season (A 3way tie in the Big East). Pitt on the otherhand has gone downhill since Rutgers dominated them (0-3 including the Rutgers game)... A loss to So Fla by 10 and than UCONN in OT, now this is just asking WVU to kick a man when hes down. I expect them to run all over the field. UCONN outrushed Pitt by 160yds last week. Palko will get some passes off but I don't expect it to matter much.. In the end it will be Slaton and White that carry WVU..

Fri Night:
I like Central Mich here. Out of all the MAC teams, this is the lone legit one. The only thing that worries me is that they clinched the MAC last week but this doesn't seem like one of those teams to go out and just quit on a ballgame. They are a solid team and a covering machine. This line is going to keep rising until gametime, so lock it in early if you can..

Saturday Leans:
Maryland +7 (hmm last I checked BC will make it a game with anyone)
Wake +2 (I will play this at +3 if it gets there)
South Car -15.5 (I will add to this later.. Down off an emotional loss? I don't think so, Spurrier is dying to run it up and SC is good for a 17+ win..)
Rutgers -6.5 (Line keeps dropping, No way Cinci upsets them here guys. Shiano is a good coach. This is a team whose never been this far into the season with something that matters, they will cherrish every moment and won't let a team like Cinci strip them of it)
Navy -31.5 - They can cover this, do they want to?
Arizona +13 - I don't know but this team just turned an engine on and I sure as hell wouldn't want to be playing them.. Two big wins vs. Wash St and Cal...Maybe Cal was looking ahead but Oregon off a thumping can't be in much better shape here.. Zona also is at 5wins, though I'm not calling for a SU winner, just some incentive to play..
ND 1st half - Under 17 and I like it..
BYU 1st half - Give me under 2 TD
SJSU + 28 - The line is only at +25 but I will play them at +28 only...It pains me to go against Hawaii so the # must be right..

Locked IN:
Nevada -20 - This team is rolling right into Boise St hot on offense and defense so Boise better watch out.. Louisana Tech, sorry you are just in the way. Line will be 21+ by gametime too...More to come on this breakdown...

As the week progresses I will add to the games that are locked in and hope to add my thoughts on why I picked the side I did.. Also I hope to have my P.O.W posted as well, ready to hit 4-0...

 

[abcs]

That south carolina game is very interesting. I live in SC and they have had a ton of close lossses at home. This game here is a MUST WIN to make a bowl game. The offense is startin to click and blake mitchell looked better the past 6 quaters. I am leaning to sc as well.. although i dont know much about midd tenny. The way the acc is goin, Maryland and Wake will win up, they are hot and gettin no respect.

 

[E.T.G.]

Where are you at in SC? I think I already told you I am a student there..

The way I see this game is kind of how you see it..I haven't made many plays on SC this yr because they are too hard to predict. You know they will play close but that doesn't always mean a cover...That Florida loss is painful because 7 points got blocked off the board and I would lean toward this game being a letdown but SC is very young and with young players you have short memories. This is the game to get to 6wins..This is the last home game for the seniors, however few that there are. Spurrier wants to pound someone after losing heartbreak and heartbreak.. The thing that bothers me is that it is a 12:30 game, SC has played every game at night at home this season so that is kind of odd..

Blake has been on fire lately and they have an offense now. The defense can hang tough and thats why I like this game under 17..

Midd Tenn St is 7-3 (7-2 ATS) which is good and they are prob the top team in their conference (sunbelt?) They are on a four game win streak where they have beaten up on their opponnents. However, when playing teams of better caliber (44-17 Louisville, 59-0 Oklahoma, 44-0 Texas Tech, 24-10 Maryland) they have not had the same success..

I see a score of something like 37-17 enough for SC to cover 15.5..

 

[E.T.G.]

Rutgers -6.5 - I know this goes against most of the board...Ok ok ok, classis letdown situation. Biggest win in school history, highest ranking, and a scrappy opponnent... I don't buy it 1 bit. RU is a team who never had to face a letdown situation. They are a team that has never had so much on the line in 1 season. They are a team who no one in the beginning of the yr had them pegged anywhere near the type of yr they are having. Thats why I believe they cherrish the moment rather than let it slip away...The Louisville win built character in this team. They had their backs against the wall and they came out and shut Louisville down for 7 straight PUNTS. Take away the 2points on the blocked XP and the kickoff return and they damn well outplayed them for more than the 2nd half. RU hurt themselves by dropping wide open balls and giving up the big play. Teel actually did not play that bad...Better than I expected..They are well coached, they do not turn the ball over, and they will grind away all night on your defense. Cinci has been a tough team but thats all. If you want to break this down statistically than RU has the advantage in almost every major category..RU will run more than pass and CU will Pass more than run. RU defense is stout and I expect CU Grutza to make a few errors against this defense.(Palko and Brohm deliver a much better passing attack) CU defense is decent vs the run, but that is RU bread and butter and Cinci will not shut them down.. Look for the emergence of freshman Britt from RU.. He could proove the be a suitable option in the RU air game, fast as hell!

After the game Leonard was interviewed asked about the BCS and he said something along the lines of "Next week is our BCS against Cincinatti" Shiano will have them thinking this is their biggest game of the yr.

RU 24 - Cinci 13

 

[3wiggler]

South Car -15.5 (I will add to this later.. Down off an emotional loss? I don't think so, Spurrier is dying to run it up and SC is good for a 17+ win..)

Careful here MTSU is a GOOD team. Only road loss ATS is @ OU. MTSU can give it up on the ground but are a solid football team. South Carolina in a tough sandwich spot here. 11/11 Battle @ Florida / 11/ 18 MTSU / 11/25 tough road trip to Clemson. Spurrier likes to run it up but he won't be able to if he rests the starters.

 

[E.T.G.]

Nevada -20- Got to get this before it climbs anymore. Ok, Nevada is hot right now ( 9-1 ATS) and that is something to take notice of. I have been on this team for a good portion of the yr and I like them. I got burned by the slowstart last week but nontheless they took care of business..Nevada rides a 4game win streak with wins over SJSU 23-7, NMST 48-21, Idaho 45-7, Utah St 42-0. They have been playing defense and solid on offense. Complete balance as of late. Louisana Tech comes off a blowout against Hawaii, a No Tex win, and a SJSU blowout(44-10). Nevada outclasses them in every way if they play the same ball as of late. I see this game being 42-14 type of ballgame. Boise you are offically on upset alert!

 

[E.T.G.]

Careful here MTSU is a GOOD team. Only road loss ATS is @ OU. MTSU can give it up on the ground but are a solid football team. South Carolina in a tough sandwich spot here. 11/11 Battle @ Florida / 11/ 18 MTSU / 11/25 tough road trip to Clemson. Spurrier likes to run it up but he won't be able to if he rests the starters.

Rest the starters? Not a chance! South Carolina has done nothing as of late to earn the right to rest players. Spurrier is pissed we can't close a game out and will take every opportunity to score points. I don't usually play the gamecocks but I just think this game they take care of business. Right now at 5 wins its a must win anyway. They can't look forward to Clemson without winning this one...

 

[3wiggler]

I don't believe South Carolina gets into a situation to rest their starters but if they are up 3 TD's in the 4th quarter(and that is a big if) they will play their seniors, etc... It is their last home game of the year.

 

[NickFazekas]

I was thinking La Tech may have a chance to keep it close. Nevada could be without their top 2 running backs (Hubbard, Fragger). La Tech has beaten Nevada 4/5 times since the teams joined the WAC, and I agree it is completely obvious Nevada is the better team and should be favored, I think La Tech stands a chance of being able to cover 3 Td's on their home turf.

All you said is true, La Tech is just standing in the way here, but on the other hand this could be a bit of a tough spot for the wolf pack (What incentive is there to call every play in the book and leave your starters in to run up the score with Boise the week after?)

La Tech has always commited to running the ball, and historically stopping the run is a weakness of Nevada's. Idaho thought they could pass the ball, so defensive ends Milan and Wilson were able to tee off on Wichman. Beating Utah st is nothing to write home about either, even on an off year La Tech still has more talent than both of these teams combined. Looking back at Reno vs Northwestern, NW was able to run the ball at will and would have won the game but they could not overcome Kafka throwing 3 int returns for Td's. Since Tech moved up to Division I-A in 1989, the Bulldogs are 47-16 at Joe Aillet Stadium.

Reno definitly will win the game so I can see taking a shot here, but I do think there is atleast some reason to consider La Tech. Goodluck man.

 

[E.T.G.]

I was thinking La Tech may have a chance to keep it close. Nevada could be without their top 2 running backs (Hubbard, Fragger). La Tech has beaten Nevada 4/5 times since the teams joined the WAC, and I agree it is completely obvious Nevada is the better team and should be favored, I think La Tech stands a chance of being able to cover 3 Td's on their home turf.

All you said is true, La Tech is just standing in the way here, but on the other hand this could be a bit of a tough spot for the wolf pack (What incentive is there to call every play in the book and leave your starters in to run up the score with Boise the week after?)

La Tech has always commited to running the ball, and historically stopping the run is a weakness of Nevada's. Idaho thought they could pass the ball, so defensive ends Milan and Wilson were able to tee off on Wichman. Beating Utah st is nothing to write home about either, even on an off year La Tech still has more talent than both of these teams combined. Looking back at Reno vs Northwestern, NW was able to run the ball at will and would have won the game but they could not overcome Kafka throwing 3 int returns for Td's. Since Tech moved up to Division I-A in 1989, the Bulldogs are 47-16 at Joe Aillet Stadium.

Reno definitly will win the game so I can see taking a shot here, but I do think there is atleast some reason to consider La Tech. Goodluck man.

Very solid info. I looked on covers.com and they did not have any injuries listed? Where can I read about the Nevada backs you are talking about?
You presented good point of view on LaTech

 

[NickFazekas]

http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061113/SPORTS06/611130332/1018/SPORTS


The Nevada football team has put together a four-game winning streak in dominating fashion, and in so doing has been able to build some much-needed depth.
And while it might look like the Wolf Pack has established good depth at running back, head coach Chris Ault expressed concern with that position on Sunday.
He didn't go so far as to question any player's toughness, but his words both on Saturday and Sunday indicate he wants his top backs, senior starter Robert Hubbard and freshman Brandon Fragger, to step up and play with pain.
"I don't know when it happened," Ault said after Saturday's 42-0 victory over Utah State at Mackay Stadium, referring to Hubbard's aggravated ankle. "It's one thing after another with him."
On Sunday, he added, "Hub's got to be able to go. The trainer cleared him."
Fragger, who has been bothered by a sore left shoulder, didn't play Saturday, and Ault said Sunday that he is "not counting on him" to play Saturday at Louisiana Tech.
"That's the position I'm most concerned about," he added.

 

[E.T.G.]

hmm shit... Still don't like La Tech here, and I already punched the ticket so I'm stuck with it. I still like Nevada to kick the crap out of them and under 3td's is plenty possible. Hopefully Hubbard is good to go..

Goodlooks on the news

 

[NickFazekas]

no doubt man and I dont want to totally talk you off nevada either. This is a must win for them and La Tech has walkons going in their secondary. Nevada is covering every number they put up there right now, and La Tech couldn't cover themselves with a blanket.

Recent play aside, its never easy to play these assholes at La Tech. They shouldnt be in the WAC, total BS. It takes a whole day to travel from Reno to Ruston Louisiana.

 

[E.T.G.]

Adding UCONN ML +105 - Thanks to Eames thread for the stats we have UCONN ~ A ROAD DOG, A TOP 25 RUSHING SIDE, THE BETTER RUSHING SIDE, THE BETTER RUSHING DEFENSE. Line opened at -3 and has quickly fallen to -1.5, can see it at pk or the opposite by kickoff..

Taken from Collegesports.com...

"Redshirt freshman Donald Brown has been terrific for the Huskies as the workhorse of the offense over the last two weeks. The home run hitter ran 28 times for 199 yards and two touchdown in the loss to Rutgers, and then ripped off 205 yards and two touchdowns on 43 carries, and 26 yards and a touchdown on four catches, in the thrilling 46-45 double-overtime win over Pitt"

UCONN is playing decent ball right now. IMO UCONN is the better team and I like them to win this game SU so I took the ML because there was more value.

 

[E.T.G.]

Going to wait on this Maryland line as it is +7.5 some places, could keep going over 8 so I will wait but this is def a play for me at +7 or more..

Wake I am not sure it will reach +3 but I will continue to wait until a little later in the week..Also might tail Killa on the Wake/VT under..

I would like to get Arizona at +14 or more, its possible the line will climb there..

BYU line is climbing a lot and will prob be 28+ by gametime, I have to make a decision on that game soon. Right now I see it at -26 to 26.5..

I will be real interested in USC if the line drops a little more..

Going to wait on So Carolina as well, want to read the local newspapers and see where the teams head is at. Sidney Rice reported yesterday to the Daily Gamecock (school newspaper) that he will be back next yr however credible that is....

 

[HUNT]

gl green..looks like a good card.

 

[E.T.G.]

Ok here we go first game of the wk, will be posting units this week, havent all yr but might as well..

Tuesday Night Action: **These #s are from BoDog, Local uses them as his lines... They pay out even if you win, pay 10% juice if you lose..
Toledo -4 ---1 Unit
Under 57 ---1 Unit

 

[E.T.G.]

Ok here we go first game of the wk, will be posting units this week, havent all yr but might as well..

Tuesday Night Action: **These #s are from BoDog, Local uses them as his lines... They pay out even if you win, pay 10% juice if you lose..
Toledo -4 ---1 Unit :down:
Under 57 ---1 Unit:smiley_acbe:

Ahh Toledo, HUGE DROP... Anyway the under wasnt even close... 1-1 on the night (-.1 unit)

 

[moneydog]

:cheers: 3 wiggler im with ya on the mtsu game ive seen they play 4 times this year , balanced ofense and very solid defense ,i agree IF s.c. gets up on em they play there seniors the old ball coach does that , im thinking s.c. wins by 4 here imo ,im all over mtsu here gl to all

 

[E.T.G.]

:cheers: 3 wiggler im with ya on the mtsu game ive seen they play 4 times this year , balanced ofense and very solid defense ,i agree IF s.c. gets up on em they play there seniors the old ball coach does that , im thinking s.c. wins by 4 here imo ,im all over mtsu here gl to all

Wins by 4?

I am not going to be playing SC this wkend. RB Cory Boyd has a broken hand, he has still practiced but I personally don't like Mike Davis as a RB and think when Boyd isnt out there it takes away from our offense. However, SC still wins and they win by more than 4 points.

 

[3wiggler]

MTSU@ 'Cocks

Line is Stagnant at 16....I will definately play if it gets to +17 but I doubt it will climb that high. I really think MTSU keeps it within 2 TD's but 4? Play the money line if you think it will be that close, I 'll take the points and trust MTSU keeps it respectable.

 

[E.T.G.]

Line is Stagnant at 16....I will definately play if it gets to +17 but I doubt it will climb that high. I really think MTSU keeps it within 2 TD's but 4? Play the money line if you think it will be that close, I 'll take the points and trust MTSU keeps it respectable.

I agree here. 4 Points is a bit optimisitc. 17+ is a good number if considering MTSU.. I won't be on this game as I really don't like when BOYD isnt the primary RB. He practiced with a broken hand but how much will he play? Also this game is at 12:30 so for the MTSU backers, this is good for you. SC plays their home games at night so its very possible that SC will be flat for this game... That was another reason I won't be on SC this week..

I see the game something like 37-20 but still not enough for me to make a play on the gamecocks as they could be flat even though Spurrier wants to score some points and beat someone up..

 

[E.T.G.]

A few more Leans to add..Will prob have final card 2morrow with POW....

Purdue/Indiana Over 58 - Weather looks good...I think Purdue comes close by themselves here. THey will put up 40+, need a little help from Indiana. Defense in this game? No way!

Missouri -15 - Iowa St quit a few weeks ago or maybe they forgot the season was even starting after that double OT game with Toledo.. Missouri still has something to play for off two losses. This is the last game for Iowa St HC but that emotion is gone by the first quater. The last 5 weeks Iowa St has lost by 17(Colorodo), 31(Kansas), 21(KState), 26(Tx Tech), & 25(Oklahoma)..

Houston -16.5 -Again we will be picking on teams that have quit. Memphis, losers of their last 8 games this yr face a surging Houston squad (4game win streak) that is playing solid ball right now. Huge 2nd half from Houston last week as Aldrige(sp?) is no joke..

 

[E.T.G.]

Wednesday Night Action:
Miami OH/BGSU Under 46 --- 1.1 Unit - Bad weather, bad teams, boring game.. That is my line of thought here. BGSU has the better record, despite losing to Temple 28-14 and being in an intense game with Buffalo. Miami OH has not been much better. I couldn't pick a side, if I had to, I would choose Miami Oh just because they are the dog and this yr the dog is money in the MAC.. I will take the Under and hope the weather is HORRIBLE..

Final Card for Saturday: (All through Local, pay 10% juice if you lose)
Nevada - 20 --- 3 Units
RU - 6.5 ---- 2 Units
UCONN ML +105 -- 4 Units
*Added
Wake/ VT Under 38.5 --- 3 Units - Props to Killa big time on this one. I couldn't make up my mind on Wake and didn't feel like I had enough points but we do have two good defenses going here and they should keep it tight.
Purdue/ Indy Over 58 --- 3 Units - Betting on no defense in this game. Indiana will get their yards and points but Purdue will get more. I have Purdue scoring in the mid to high 40's in this one..
Houston -16.5 -- 3 Units - Simply love what they have been doing as of late. Again, last week was a huge win not only because its a W in Conference USA, the team came back from a 10 point deficit to outscore SMU 27-3 in the 2nd half. Memphis, losers of their last 8 won't provide a fight..
Missouri -14 (Bought .5) -- 4 Units - Kicking a man when hes down.. Like I mentioned before, Iowa St is done. They have given up and I look for this week to be no different. I bought the half point because it is one of my larger plays and I have been fucked by the 1/2 point already this yr on a 4 Unit play (OHIO!!!!)..
BYU -14 first half ---- 4 Units - I wouldnt want to be playing BYU right now if I was in the Mountain West. Everything is clicking right now. Weather will hold up for this weekend as well. BYU not only is flying high on offense behind Beck, they are straight kicking the crap out of opposing offenses. Wyoming, Colo St, Air Force, UNLV, SDSU, TCU have all been beaten up by this defense. New Mexico, step up to the plate..
ND -18.5 first half ----4 Units - I am 3-0 on the boys from ND over the last 3 weeks on first half plays. I feel comfortable here as well because again they name their score. 27-3 is something we could see. ND has been coming out of the gates firing and Army just can't score plain and simple..

 

[E.T.G.]

Wednesday Night Action:
Miami OH/BGSU Under 46 --- 1.1 Unit - Bad weather, bad teams, boring game.. That is my line of thought here. BGSU has the better record, despite losing to Temple 28-14 and being in an intense game with Buffalo. Miami OH has not been much better. I couldn't pick a side, if I had to, I would choose Miami Oh just because they are the dog and this yr the dog is money in the MAC.. I will take the Under and hope the weather is HORRIBLE..

Another MAC under... Boring game, bad weather, and two bad teams. Anyway, 2-1 on the week +1 Unit.. Will have some Thursday action.:cheers:

 

[USCTrojans]

GL Green. Looks like a winning card. Agree on most of them, but haven't pull any trigger yet.

 

[E.T.G.]

GL Green. Looks like a winning card. Agree on most of them, but haven't pull any trigger yet.

Lets hope so...GL to all

 

[E.T.G.]

The DR. Bob effect...

Nevada -17
Missouri -13.5
Notre Dame 1st half -17


I am considering replaying atleast Nevada -17 and my ND 1st half. I like it even more at -17..

 

[E.T.G.]

Final Card for Saturday: (All through Local, pay 10% juice if you lose)
Nevada - 20 --- 3 Units **Added Nevada -17 ---2 Units
RU - 6.5 ---- 2 Units
UCONN ML +105 -- 4 Units
Wake/ VT Under 38.5 --- 3 Units
Purdue/ Indy Over 58 --- 3 Units
Houston -16.5 -- 3 Units
Missouri -14 (Bought .5) -- 4 Units
BYU -14 first half ---- 4 Units
**P.O.W: ND -18.5 first half ----4 Units ** Added ND -17 first half ---2 Units

Just to update y'all...DR. Bob seems to be opposing me on two games and dropped my lines.. I replayed Nevada at 17 because 3 points is too much to pass up...
I replayed ND first half which I know consider my P.O.W. I liked ND alot at -18.5 and I simply love them even more at -17. ND is good for 28+ here, which means Army will have to score 10 to cover here.. I don't buy that happening. I understand the logic of taking Army over the course of the full game because USC is next on deck and this game will be out of reach early however I have to side with my confidence (3-0) on ND 1st halves and my instincts here that tell me Brady Quinn all day in the 1st half.

 

[E.T.G.]

Stolen from Trainwrecks Coaches quotes thread:

Louisiana Tech coach Jack Bicknell on the health of his defense.

"Our defense is banged up; it's been the most unbelievable year since I've been here in terms of guys going out hurt. I don't want to use that an excuse, though." -- Louisiana Tech coach Jack Bicknell on the rash of injuries suffered by his defense this season.

Nevada Coach Chris Ault on this weekends game at La Tech

"I'm not worried about the next two games, I'm worried about the next one. We've got to play real sound defense. We've got to improve on offense. There's no magic formula." -- Nevada coach Chris Ault, to the Reno Gazette Journal, on this week's game with Louisianna Tech. Nevada hosts Boise State in the season finale for both teams on Nov. 25.



I like what I read here. Nevada is focused and I don't expect them to hold anything back for next weeks game but rather I see Nevada using this game to make sure everything is working optimal.

 

[E.T.G.]

Had something written up but it didnt post, anyway in short...

Thursday Action Plays

Ohio - 4.5 --- 1 Unit - Going against recent MAC underdog success and taking the home team with more to play for. Field is not grass like BGSU but is that artificial shit if I'm not mistaken so yes it will be wet but not a mud bowl..

WVU/PITT Over 51 --- 1 Unit - Pitt won't stop Slaton and White and WVU won't hold Palko down. Expects some points to fly here..

 

[E.T.G.]

Had something written up but it didnt post, anyway in short...

Thursday Action Plays

Ohio - 4.5 --- 1 Unit - :wacka wacka:

WVU/PITT Over 51 --- 1 Unit - :wacka wacka:

WVU/Pitt covered in the first half, wow wish that was a bigger play. Ohio game I did not get to watch but it looks like Ohio controlled the game. I see both teams had 3 turnovers and Akron had something like -3 rushing yards. Another MAC under for those that played it..

4-1 on the week, +3 Units.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

GL this weekend, ETG

we got nothing in common for a change...for or against. in any case, hope you sweep the weekend's card, bro.
:cheers:

 

[E.T.G.]

we got nothing in common for a change...for or against. in any case, hope you sweep the weekend's card, bro.
:cheers:

Atleast we are not on the opposite sides! GL this wkend..

 

[E.T.G.]

Friday Night Action

CM -4 --- 1 Unit – Ok, CM rides a 5 game win streak, NIU rides a 2 game losing streak. CM has already clinched their shot at the MAC Title Game and some would think that they could careless about this game but I tend to disagree. CM is chasing school history for the best season and they are not about to let NIU slip them up. CM has been a monster ATS (9-1) and the two teams have 4 common opponents: (West Mich, Temple, Toledo, Ball St) CM has beaten all four while NIU has lost to Toledo and Western Mich. Wolfe is banged up but I hear that the CM running back is banged up as well. Covers has no info on this. The weather will be fine tonight. MAC doggies are 2-1 this week, I think they get their other cover with East Mich not with NIU. The last 8 times these two teams have faced, NIU has won. Think CM isn’t thinking about that? What a perfect yr to return the favor.

 

[Muletime]

Keep up the good work. Rutgers is going to be BIG for us! Good luck this weekend!

 

[E.T.G.]

CM -4 --- 1 Unit –(LOSS) -1.1U: Guys, this was just the tip of the iceberg. Wish I
Knew what was coming.. Anyway, CMU was dominated by NIU, totally catching me by surprise. I thought CMU would come to play so they could put their stake on the best season in history but NIU wanted it more and Wolfe seemed like his old self..

After betting on all of the MAC games this week, something I wouldn’t normally do if there was not football on Tues- Saturday, MAC dogs are 4-1 with 3 SU winners. If you’re an Underdog ML player like Redbearde you cashed out on this conference.

Also to add to this, all five MAC games went UNDER the total. I am done trying to cap this conference and I will treat them like a system..

Bet the Dog and the Under regardless of what you really think!

This brings me to 4-2 going into Saturday and +1.9 Units

Saturday review to follow

 

[E.T.G.]

Final Card for Saturday: (All through Local, pay 10% juice if you lose)
UCONN ML +105 -- 4 Units (LOSS: -4.4 Units) This was the first of many losses. Figures that Syracuse would do this to me, my roommate rant and raves about them covering the spread and I thought I could finally nab them. On paper UCONN was the play but in reality, they friggen suck. Hernandez didn’t know what team to throw to and UCONN really didn’t want a bowl bid..


Purdue/ Indy Over 58 --- 3 Units (LOSS: -3.3 Units) I think there were 8 turnovers in the first half. Unbelievable. Not sure if anyone saw it but Purdue fumbles, Indiana kid makes a great play, picks it up, solid return only to have the ball punched out of his hands for a Purdue Touchback. The over than became of reality of never happening..


Houston -16.5 -- 3 Units (LOSS: - 3.3 Units) Props to the poster above who said this team is flaky. I knew that but I didn’t want to believe it. This team is absolutely FLAKY. A 17 point 2nd quarter was all they could manage on offense against Memphis? I noticed they didn’t run Alridge that much this week either. This was just bad capping on my part..

Missouri -14 (Bought .5) -- 4 Units (LOSS: - 4.4 Unit) This team. Wow. IowaState has not come close to a win in 5 weeks and Missouri bends over and lets them do whatever they want. I can’t even say anything more about this game.. Iowa St has officially beaten me every time I have bet them.


**P.O.W: ND -18.5 first half ----4 Units ** Added ND -17 first half ---2 Units(Loss: 4.4 Units) & Push… - This was a bad day for me but this game put the stamp on it. Now ND, how do you go the whole first quarter scoreless against Army. This is the 2nd week in a row, the 3rd time, that a team has stuck it to me in the first half. ND has no problem throwing up 14 in 2minutes at the start of the 3rd quarter and covering the game spread. What really pissed me off is the missed extra point, that makes the score 21-3 at half and I do not push on my 2nd ND bet helping to cut my losses for the week..I hope this team makes it to the NC and OSU beats them by 21.

RU - 6.5 ---- 2 Units(Loss: 2.2 Units) – RU, I think it was my overwhelming NJ pride that made me jump on this bandwagon but boy do I regret it. I was a big doubter about them, see my Pitt Vs. RU writeup and before the Louisville game. Then they won their biggest game and I along with every other Tony Soprano wannabe jumped on them and thought no way they have a letdown.. Well screw the letdown, Teel showed his true colors. WVU in a romp!

BYU -14 first half ---- 4 Units (Win: 4 Unit) – Finally something went right. BYU has been reliable this yr, I do not think they covered the whole game but they sure as hell jumped out quickly..

Nevada - 20 --- 3 Units **Added Nevada -17 ---2 Units (WIN 5 Units): Ok, I was actually right on this game too. Still not sure what people saw in La Tech but at this point I don’t have the right to criticize anyone’s pick. They took care of business and now Boise is next.


Wake/ VT Under 38.5 --- 3 Units (Win: 3 Units) – Thanks Killa, without you my week would have been even worse. I couldn’t pick a side in this game and Killa came through with a pick that made sense..

7-8-1 this week... (-8.1 Units for the week)

Ok basically this was my worst week of college football all yr. I am pretty stunned, I know it sounds like a lot of sour grapes above, its just my way of expressing how pissed off I am at myself..

I am a beginner here, this is my first yr of really capping college football and betting on it besides a damn parlay card.. I am finding out that I lack the confidence in myself. When I originally read lines on South Carolina and Arizona, I had a feeling that they seemed off. I’m sure if you look back each week, there are 2-3 plays I dismiss from my early leans after a day of browsing the net. The lines seemed off to me but I did some reading on others opinions on the game and I talked myself out of it. Now the USC game I should have known better. This is something I expect to improve on next yr. I have no problem betting some ass clowns from Missouri who I rarely get to see play, but I have doubts of betting the team I see play every week. Next yr I plan to bet SC every week because if you can look at the team with an unbiased opinion, which can be tough at times, you have a better feel for the game than any other one on the board. The Arizona game, I knew, I knew, I knew, but every “expert” had Oregon covering and I said, I guess not. This week I am not reading what espn, cbssportsline, collegefootballnews, etc all have to say until after my picks are placed..

Another problem I have is betting too many games and betting them too early…

Lastly, I lay too much chalk. I have to start playing more dogs...

The season is almost over and I have been getting my ass kicked lately, I hope to show more belief in myself this week and actually turn this shit around..

For someone who has been fading a lot of teams this yr, I need to look at that again and just FADE myself!