I was pretty optimistic on Duke this year. Took Ov 5.5 RSW, even thought they had an outside shot at the division.
Started well at 4-1, but have now dropped 3 straight including a bad loss at Virginia, a competitive loss at UNC where they blew a goal line chance to win in the final seconds, and then an noncompetitive loss to ND.
All things considered, what have they actually done to earn a DD fav role here? The 4-1 start was good and all, but wins vs MTSU and GT plus a 1AA were totally expected. Really the VT win was the only surprise in the manner in which they won, that was over a month ago. Otherwise Duke have been incredibly average this year.
The large favorite role is exclusively due to this week's opponent, the Syracuse Orangemen...who have frankly, sucked.
Whether it is allowing Boston College to set a program record 691 yards of O (Orange fired their DC after the game). Or their week two 63-20 loss at Maryland (Maryland has proved to be equally bad so that must mean Syracuse is really really bad). Syracuse has not beaten a P5 team this year!
Not a good candidate for a straight up road win, right?
Yea....right...But I think this game could be competitive.
In their ACC + ND games, Duke is averaging just 310 ypg. They had over 400y vs VT and under 200 vs ND so those games tend to counterbalance eachother and the remaining 4 games in the middle show the same 310 ypg. That includes the games where they scored 30 on Pitt and 41 on GT which were both fueled on takeaways and short fields (28 of the 71 pts in those two games either very short fields or D/ST scores).
In the 5 games since the VT, Quinton Harris is completing under 50% of his passes with a 5-8 ratio. Duke's running game has equally struggled since VT, averaging just 3.09 ypc.
It could get worse this week with the OL injuries, Duke's 2 year starting C, Wohlabaugh, just had ankle surgery is out. Soph Will Taylor will get his first start, he has played in 3 games this year and 3 last year. Rotating Jr OT Kraeling was injured last week and is out (13 starts '18, not starting '19 but played in 8 games). While they have started all season, both starting OTs are either tFr or rFr. That is a lot of 1st year youth on the OL.
Long story short, Duke's O is nothing to fear - and of course neither has been this Syracuse O.
Syracuse is an ugly ugly dog. Their OL has yielded an NCAA high 45 sacks!
Both Cuse and Duke D's get about 2.5 sacks per game and 6.5 TFLs. The Syracuse OL has proved to be especially vulnerable to pressure.
The lack of good or even average OL play has contributed to Tommy DeVito's poor season (although he does have better number across the board than Harris). DeVito has been playing through a rib injury suffered week 5 and should be at his healthiest here. The O overall really misses the rushing production Dungy brought - without him the Cuse O has struggled in a variety of areas. There is still talent at WR and experience at RB.
Syracuse's last 2 games were vs the bruising power run team of BC and the superior athletes of FSU...and Cuse D failed in those contests. Duke however doesn't do anything particularly well on O like BC, nor will they have a talent and skill advantage the way FSU did.
I believe Sryacuse and Duke are in fact fairly similar and actually like the talent and experience Cuse has on D compared to Duke's defensive unit, especially matching up with the less experienced Duke OL. Syracuse DL should be able to make plays on them and might even dare I say bring some havoc.
The odds of Syracuse winning their last 3 and getting to a bowl are not great. However, off a bye and with that goal still within a motivational reach for this game, I think chances are good they come out and play one of, if not, their best game of the season vs an average Duke team. Syracuse's effort on D has been questionable the last couple weeks. The new DC and the bye week I think provide a reset on the effort level. Duke needs to win 2 of 3 to reach bowl eligibility themselves, so their will to compete should be equally strong. I just see the 'price' and the odds in this game being out of whack if they are similar as I think they are and could envision an upset or tight game.
These teams have played one common opponent. Pitt beat Syracuse 27-20 (P-3.5) with Pitt having a 49 yard edge (377-328), Pitt led 24-6. Pitt beat Duke 33-30 (D-4) again with a 49 yard advantage! (337-288) - Pitt led 26-3.