Week 12 ML Dogs

we might have some early games this week to look into before we even get to Sat!!

Tues - Zips, W Mich
Wed
- BG, N Illiy
Thur
- Kent St, UNC
Fri - La Tech, Fresno
Well let’s see if we get 3 days Ina row with a ML Dog hitting.......

I personally lean Pitt ML but UNC is definitely Live on the ML and Kent St is at home....
 
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Kinda like my Bowling Green pick last night? Ugh!

No worries @s--k you may have a valid point for those who are not familiar with your posts. And you most certainly would get this reaction at a board like Blankets. But that's why we post at CTG man....lots of great people here. Don't worry about this and let's roll! Well....not Roll Tide at least.

We did get some things for Bowling Green that could've allowed us to steal one. You know a team that can keep it close who shouldn't. Miami tried to keep BG in that game with the turnovers - BG couldn't make it matter by scoring off them. And once they couldn't Miami blew it open.

Yeah I like it here. I don't think I'm always right. I don't brag about this or that or don't make stuff up to make people think I'm somebody I'm not. Picking big upsets you are going to be wrong more than you're right. The odds you are betting allow you to be wrong more than you're right and still turn profit.

I know picking Alabama to lose a game like this sounds stupid and a waste of money. But it's my money so who cares right? As long as I'm not s dick about it I think most people will know what I'm trying to do.
 
Oh no, I'm not saying they think their season is over. It's not. I don't know what they think or want to do, none of us do.

My only angle on a let down is that after an a tough emotional game that they lost, it will be hard to match that level of play this week, especially for some of the youth on the team this year.

I have no idea how they feel about their playoff hopes. For all I know they could be consumed by it, or don't even worry about it. That has no influence of how I think they play this week.

I think I was referring to j-rocks take on it more than yours, if I remember correctly. Lol
 
Normally I’d say you crazy but what else you gonna do with a dollar? I dunno if I can only bet a dollar anywhere tho?? lol
 
Tues - Zips, W Mich
Wed
- BG, N Illiy
Thur
- Kent St, UNC
Fri - La Tech, Fresno

4 Days in a row?
 
Tues - Zips, W Mich
Wed
- BG, N Illiy
Thur
- Kent St, UNC
Fri - La Tech, Fresno

4 Days in a row?


Western Michigan was favored at some spots, I show it closed at pick'em and NIU closed as a 1 pt dog in some spots. But kinda.
 
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Has anyone considered Wake? Any shot against the Tigers?
Nope. Surratt done for the season and Washington was dinged last game too.

The thought was in my head, but not without Wake at full strength. Surratt's loss is just enormous. It isn't like WF has a strong running game to fall back on. Washington was in his 4th year and has posted good totals before, he was on pace for his best season. That most unlikely upset just got more unlikely. But we should never rules things out I suppose...unless it is Rutgers.
 
LA. Tech has key players suspended; which why the line jumped. This week (Nov 14) was the anniversary of the 1970 plane crash. The Herds has always played well for this memorial, as I went back several seasons.
 
I was pretty optimistic on Duke this year. Took Ov 5.5 RSW, even thought they had an outside shot at the division.

Started well at 4-1, but have now dropped 3 straight including a bad loss at Virginia, a competitive loss at UNC where they blew a goal line chance to win in the final seconds, and then an noncompetitive loss to ND.

All things considered, what have they actually done to earn a DD fav role here? The 4-1 start was good and all, but wins vs MTSU and GT plus a 1AA were totally expected. Really the VT win was the only surprise in the manner in which they won, that was over a month ago. Otherwise Duke have been incredibly average this year.

The large favorite role is exclusively due to this week's opponent, the Syracuse Orangemen...who have frankly, sucked.

Whether it is allowing Boston College to set a program record 691 yards of O (Orange fired their DC after the game). Or their week two 63-20 loss at Maryland (Maryland has proved to be equally bad so that must mean Syracuse is really really bad). Syracuse has not beaten a P5 team this year!

Not a good candidate for a straight up road win, right?

Yea....right...But I think this game could be competitive.

In their ACC + ND games, Duke is averaging just 310 ypg. They had over 400y vs VT and under 200 vs ND so those games tend to counterbalance eachother and the remaining 4 games in the middle show the same 310 ypg. That includes the games where they scored 30 on Pitt and 41 on GT which were both fueled on takeaways and short fields (28 of the 71 pts in those two games either very short fields or D/ST scores).

In the 5 games since the VT, Quinton Harris is completing under 50% of his passes with a 5-8 ratio. Duke's running game has equally struggled since VT, averaging just 3.09 ypc.

It could get worse this week with the OL injuries, Duke's 2 year starting C, Wohlabaugh, just had ankle surgery is out. Soph Will Taylor will get his first start, he has played in 3 games this year and 3 last year. Rotating Jr OT Kraeling was injured last week and is out (13 starts '18, not starting '19 but played in 8 games). While they have started all season, both starting OTs are either tFr or rFr. That is a lot of 1st year youth on the OL.

Long story short, Duke's O is nothing to fear - and of course neither has been this Syracuse O.

Syracuse is an ugly ugly dog. Their OL has yielded an NCAA high 45 sacks!

Both Cuse and Duke D's get about 2.5 sacks per game and 6.5 TFLs. The Syracuse OL has proved to be especially vulnerable to pressure.

The lack of good or even average OL play has contributed to Tommy DeVito's poor season (although he does have better number across the board than Harris). DeVito has been playing through a rib injury suffered week 5 and should be at his healthiest here. The O overall really misses the rushing production Dungy brought - without him the Cuse O has struggled in a variety of areas. There is still talent at WR and experience at RB.

Syracuse's last 2 games were vs the bruising power run team of BC and the superior athletes of FSU...and Cuse D failed in those contests. Duke however doesn't do anything particularly well on O like BC, nor will they have a talent and skill advantage the way FSU did.

I believe Sryacuse and Duke are in fact fairly similar and actually like the talent and experience Cuse has on D compared to Duke's defensive unit, especially matching up with the less experienced Duke OL. Syracuse DL should be able to make plays on them and might even dare I say bring some havoc.

The odds of Syracuse winning their last 3 and getting to a bowl are not great. However, off a bye and with that goal still within a motivational reach for this game, I think chances are good they come out and play one of, if not, their best game of the season vs an average Duke team. Syracuse's effort on D has been questionable the last couple weeks. The new DC and the bye week I think provide a reset on the effort level. Duke needs to win 2 of 3 to reach bowl eligibility themselves, so their will to compete should be equally strong. I just see the 'price' and the odds in this game being out of whack if they are similar as I think they are and could envision an upset or tight game.

These teams have played one common opponent. Pitt beat Syracuse 27-20 (P-3.5) with Pitt having a 49 yard edge (377-328), Pitt led 24-6. Pitt beat Duke 33-30 (D-4) again with a 49 yard advantage! (337-288) - Pitt led 26-3.
 
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Colorado State has been on a bit of a roll, winners of their last 3 including one as a DD dog with a margin of victory 14.6 ppg. Now, 2 of those 3 were vs the bottom of the MWC and the Fresno upset was predicted here as Fresno is just an average team this year. Never-the-less it was important for CSU to get off the mat from their 1-5 start, even if the competition hasn't been strong, CSU goes into their bye week on a high with confidence both on offense and defense and trust within one another. Their improved play, communication and trust coupled with the bye makes this the best time CSU could possibly play AF.

The key on O has been QB O'Brien becoming comfortable after replacing the injured starter Hill. One of the most important parts of the O was absent in the Utah St and SD St losses, WR Warren Jackson. All he has done the last 3 weeks since returning is post 24rec-525y-3TD. He leads a very good receiving unit. Unfortunately Rams are without their leading rusher and big time player RB Kinsley, as they have been the last 2 weeks. It's been a committee approach since. The OL was a weakness last year and entered 2019 still pretty green, but the unit has progressed nicely with fewer sacks per pass attempt this year and a much better rushing ypc - even in games without Kinsley. It is a strong offense. San Diego St's historically good D did hold them to 10 pts, outside of that game CSU has scored atleast 24 in every other game.

The Ram's D is still a concern, as it always has been in recent years. Remember the Toledo game this year? Ouch. Vs Air Force is going to be important how well CSU plays on D. For what it's worth there is statistical improvement in just about every category this season. There has been marked improvement from the non-conference games, where Toledo was the last of which, to the MWC games. CSU D went from allowing 439y and 40.3 ppg non-conference to 360ypg 25.4 ppg in league play. CSU actually even leads a defensive category, and an important one...3rd down D, they lead MWC and 13th nationally allowing just 30.6% 3rd downs. There is execution and trust they were lacking earlier in the season, a good state to be in entering a 2 week prep period for one of their most difficult challenges they will face this season. They were in full pads last week to prep for AF rather than taking a week off to stay healthy.

Air Force has won 3 straight vs CSU...2 of those 3 where one score games of 8 last year and 3 points in 2016. AF blew them out in 2017 45-28 (game was just 31-28 entering the 4th Q - AF only outgained them by 42y, CSU had 2 yard per play better O, threw 3 INTs).

With an improved CSU team, even vs an equally improved AF team, this could and should be another close game between these rivals. Even if AF O proves too difficult for CSU to get off the field with regularity, the CSU O is well suited to trade scores.

Weather looks like a perfect day for football (and passing offense) in Fort Collins.
 
Kentucky @ Vandy: I will say this in an attempt to NOT be a homer. Every year Mark Stoops' coached Ky teams have had an absolutely dreadful letdown game. A game in which no one shows up and they all look like they would rather be anywhere else on the planet except for that football field. Normally this occurs after the Georgia game but when I look back on this season, I can honestly say I do not think we have had that game yet. We played really well vs. Mizzou the week after our Jawja loss. One might look at the Mississippi State or the South Carolina games and think that that is when it happened but I don't. Honestly, we were going through some serious QB struggles at the time. Of course we had Terry Wilson go down for the year vs. EMU. Sawyer Smith steps in and plays credibly vs. Florida but not good enough to win. He gets hurt during that game....an injury, looking back on it, that was far more serious than the coaching staff let on publicly. We kept hearing he was good at practice....but he played like dogshit at both MSU & USCjr leading to the WR turned QB experiment vs. Arkansas. Now I love Lynn Bowden and I think he has performed his best for this team. I'm not trying to knock his competitiveness at all, but we seriously have ZERO passing game and there is NO effing way Stoops and Gran make a QB change....the only way he comes out is if Bowden gets hurt to the point he has to be carted off the field. Stoops and Gran simply do not believe in substituting QBs. Moving on, if we are to have that massive letdown, that I know we have Every. Single, Season. then tomorrow at Vandy is when it will happen. The loss to Tennessee last week was simply a back-breaker. To lose to those guys puts a pit in every Kentuckians stomach unlike anything a loss to Florida or Louisville can do.

In the pics below, I have some comparisons of previous season wins/losses, current season wins/losses, week greater than 7, opponent coming off a home loss and the SU record is 5-5 in pic 1. 50% is not bad odds when looking for a dog to win SU. This includes a win by a 9pt dog so there has been some historical similarity to this game tomorrow. However, when I enter the fact the home team lost the previous week away by >30pts, it comes back 0-3 SU for of course 0%. See pic 2. So clearly, the manner in which Vandy lost last week is of huge concern.

What I do not know is how motivated Derek Mason's bunch is to play hard for him. I do respect Derek Mason and he has gotten his team motivated in previous games but I just dunno know....they have 7 losses and are not going bowling so what is there to shoot for for them in this game? Ky, OTOH, is still trying to get to 6 wins and a bowl game. I do know Lynn Bowden will play hard at QB tomorrow but without a passing game, can Vandy stack the box and slow him down?? Will Lynn Bowden playing hard be enough to overcome the rest of the team mailing it in in what is sure to be a letdown for this Ky group? My gut tells me Lynn Bowden will do enough here....but if Derek Mason is able to rally the troops for one last great charge, then I can see my Cats dropping this one in an excruciating, frustrating fashion.

vandy-ky3.jpg

vandy-ky2.jpg
 
I have no opinion on that UK-Vandy game. I will say that before anyone considers Vandy, who is playing QB is of utmost importance. Duece Wallace has shown the last two weeks he is not able to produce any O what-so-ever. If the angle is that UK hits the trough of their season then I suppose it wouldn't matter in theory. But theory aside, reality says don't bet Vandy if Duece Wallace is QB.
 
This card feels so much more limited than certainly the last few weeks. I’ve been stuck on 3 plays most the week, stayed up all night and maybe found 1-2 more I like and one them a fav! (Blasphemy I know, lol)..

I’ve grown more interested in vandy as the games get closer. I know they bad but uk has completed 10 passes the last 3 weeks combined. Feels like a Game the points should at least be good and don’t really see why vandy couldn’t win if they still interested in doing so??

I wanna like Baylor as I have most the year but I don’t trust their offense and while I like the d a lot I think sooners a team that can score on most anyone. Said last week I thought isu was a scarier gm for sooners and think I still feel that way. I’ll def be rooting for them but don’t think I can play.
 
This card feels so much more limited than certainly the last few weeks. I’ve been stuck on 3 plays most the week, stayed up all night and maybe found 1-2 more I like and one them a fav! (Blasphemy I know, lol)..

I’ve grown more interested in vandy as the games get closer. I know they bad but uk has completed 10 passes the last 3 weeks combined. Feels like a Game the points should at least be good and don’t really see why vandy couldn’t win if they still interested in doing so??
Agreed....the lines have definitely tightened up....I like Cuse a lot but that's the only one....the others are tails on you guys and I think the way Navy plays ball control with their run game they can stay in it and have a chance vs. Irish. My gut tells me Bowden will lead Ky today to do enough to win but I have seen enough of Stoops' teams over the past several years that it would not surprise me in the slightest to see them lay an egg today. BOL!!
 
Agreed....the lines have definitely tightened up....I like Cuse a lot but that's the only one....the others are tails on you guys and I think the way Navy plays ball control with their run game they can stay in it and have a chance vs. Irish. My gut tells me Bowden will lead Ky today to do enough to win but I have seen enough of Stoops' teams over the past several years that it would not surprise me in the slightest to see them lay an egg today. BOL!!

Im on navy but feel like we kinda getting short changed on this line which annoys me. I prefer thinking I’m catching too many or too much plus on my plays, whether it ever really true i dunno but it feels good! Lol.

Afraid I caved and played this despite fact I thought it was gonna be and prob should be little higher. Not that navy can’t cover or win outright, I’m hoping line being short imo a bit of a tell since I’ve had to invent reasons to go against my normal way of doing things here cause I been drooling over this play for weeks and couldn’t get off when came less than i expected!

That sounds kinda bad when I voice it out loud for 1st time. Lol


Kansas with the points I really like, I suppose they could win, wouldn’t be their 1st big road upset and it is the early slot which been fruitful for these.
 
I think UCLA may be worth a flyer. They have really turned around their season and could have a shot today. I doubt they actually pull it off but at +1100 why not bet on it.

If you like them to cover I agree prob worth a sprinkle. Feels to me like a game they in and stays pretty close or utes just jump all over them and they wilt away fast in the altitude. Not sure which.
 
My fade of UAB started October 5th with a Rice ML. I felt cautiously optimistic about it heading to halftime, then the wheels just came off. I went against UAB again vs UTSA and ODU on a smaller scale. I believe it was the right thing to do but the wrong teams to do it with. Thankfully I was finally rewarded when they played the Vols and Southern Miss.

Here I am again...is UTEP the right or wrong team?

Most likely the wrong team because UTEP is rarely the right team in most any situation.

I was surprised with what I saw out of them Miners last week however. Maybe it was Charlotte's road issues that held them back, or maybe UTEP is about to turn the corner...or maybe it is more accurate to imply they can see the corner....maybe? And yes I do think Charlotte is better than UAB.

UAB has played four teams with 1 win or less this year, as in currently has 1 or less wins, and now UTEP will make that #5. Some schedule!

UAB QB Tyler Johnston is out again this week, which is good. His backup hasn't looked good vs tougher competition. UAB's O isn't much to fear typcially, even though they have done well vs their weakling opponents. Johnston was better than Erdely last year and I do not think that UAB can be nearly as good on O without him - so long as UTEP provides some resistance.

The best thing about UAB is their D and even though they have played some pitiful offensive teams, I do respect them on that side of the ball.

The key to UTEP's illusive success lies with QB Kai Locksley. Locksley was suspended over the summer, missing camp and when he returned he wasn't getting a lot of reps in practice as he had to work his way back up the depth chart. And when he played early in the season, his rust showed. He had been splitting time with Jones, but that changed a few weeks ago and now he is getting more comfortable and familiar as the starting QB again. The result was his best game in 2 years last week vs Charlotte. He went 15-20-215-1-1 with 84y rushing on 15att. The INT he was throwing away while being tackled. Is last week an aberration or what we can expect from him going forward? I am hoping he can duplicate it obviously. As he goes, this bet goes.

Otherwise, there isn't much to write about. UTEP is who you think they are. UAB showed us who they are the last two weeks...Vols and USM are quite a bit above UTEP however so this one is going to be tough. Just the way I like it. Go Miners!
 
Alabama hasn’t lost to an unranked team since 2007. I could buy an uninspired effort, but I have a tough time seeing a loss, but who knows? Saban did say Thursday night that there is a player suspended for missing class, no idea who it is yet. Speculation that it is Trevon Diggs or Jalen Waddle
 
I think UCLA may be worth a flyer. They have really turned around their season and could have a shot today. I doubt they actually pull it off but at +1100 why not bet on it.
They haven't faired well in their last few trips to Utah but you are correct, they're playing better. IF...Utah is drinking the kool aid they could slip up but I don't think they are. I expect a DD win tonight from
my squad.
 
I will be on Baylor, might throw small money line.

It is true as 2daBank has been saying, Baylor's O has gone into hibernation. It's too early for Bears to hibernate though. Their potential with this O; Brewer and those receivers and they ran for over 200 with a strong ypc just 3 games ago vs Ok St. We just need to see it reemerge. Baylor has a solid defense and this must be the biggest game in their history that I can think of. Reminds me of the Minnesota - Penn State game last week. A home game for a team undefeated this far into the season as a big home dog - I mean how can I possibly stay away? Throw in the fact that Jalen Hurts is going to help Baylor along the way and it makes even more sense!
 
Alabama hasn’t lost to an unranked team since 2007. I could buy an uninspired effort, but I have a tough time seeing a loss, but who knows? Saban did say Thursday night that there is a player suspended for missing class, no idea who it is yet. Speculation that it is Trevon Diggs or Jalen Waddle

Thanks for chiming in GPS. A very unlikely upset this would be. Wouldn't be the largest from a point spread / odds perspective, but I think just about everyone would agree it would be the biggest one of the season if it were to happen. Admit this game is more likely to be 45-10 at some point instead of say...28-27. We all go a little mad sometimes - this must be my turn.
 
Only way UCLA could do it is with turnovers - like the ASU game where they lost 4. Outside of that they have only lost 5 in the other 8 games. Tough to count on that.
 
I will be on Baylor, might throw small money line.

It is true as 2daBank has been saying, Baylor's O has gone into hibernation. It's too early for Bears to hibernate though. Their potential with this O; Brewer and those receivers and they ran for over 200 with a strong ypc just 3 games ago vs Ok St. We just need to see it reemerge. Baylor has a solid defense and this must be the biggest game in their history that I can think of. Reminds me of the Minnesota - Penn State game last week. A home game for a team undefeated this far into the season as a big home dog - I mean how can I possibly stay away? Throw in the fact that Jalen Hurts is going to help Baylor along the way and it makes even more sense!

I agree the similarities def there and if Baylor were to ever act right again this be the spot where they should feel really disrespected.

I don’t like anything at night so by time we get to this I might have said fukk it and joined ya’ll. I want it to happen big time!! Lol
 
Colorado State has just been hanging on from 2nd Q to current. AF just tied it. CSU hasn't shown anything on O since their first drive of the game. Time to worry.
 
UTEP 50 to win 50 to win 294
West By God Virginia 50 to win 211
Syracuse 50 to win 158
Colorado State 50 to win 145
Baylor 50 to win 152
Mississippi State 20 to win 130

The day that could've been, the one that got away. UTEP and Miss St were not smart bets, which I knew. Man I'm just sick about Tua getting hurt. I said the UTEP bet would go as Kai went? Yeah, he played like maybe 6 plays or something. Not sure if he was injured, but the QB they went with for game had never played before...so not good situation there. Man I hate UAB. I'm not ready to talk about Colorado State, you probably know what happened there and everyone knows what happened in Baylor. I was really happy that the analysis on WVU and Syracuse yielded results. CSU and Baylor should've as well.
 
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