Week 12 ML Dogs

Wanna say navy but that line came shorter than I expected. Will Irish really be interested in fighting off cut blocks all day? Another week another team Irish has to face off a bye which a really tough ask!
 
1st glance wyo is def interesting to me, Utah st overvalued again?

Couldn’t fault anyone for playing gophers as dogs again, Iowa not that good. Do we really expect minny beat psu just to go lay down to Iowa? I don’t.
 
Was sure all weekend I would be listing Iowa on this thread, but they are favored. Those oddsmakers piss me off sometimes

Auburn and Ole Miss look good and I expect the line may move their way during the week.

Baylor not so much. They are getting a lot more points than I thought they would, but their offense has looked more inept each week for the last month and that's bad news against a team that puts up points on everyone
 
I watched Baylor and their deep balls against Okie State and it conjured up memories of the outside speed they had in Briles heyday. But they've all of sudden just lost that facet of their offense.
 
I watched Baylor and their deep balls against Okie State and it conjured up memories of the outside speed they had in Briles heyday. But they've all of sudden just lost that facet of their offense.

I was prob their biggest supporter early on but even before the latest what I’d call dud I actually thought isu presented more problems for sooners cause I thought they could score, Baylor’s d is the class of big12 imo but I don’t know that matters against sooners I think you gonna have to put up 30 to win.
 
Was sure all weekend I would be listing Iowa on this thread, but they are favored. Those oddsmakers piss me off sometimes

Auburn and Ole Miss look good and I expect the line may move their way during the week.

Baylor not so much. They are getting a lot more points than I thought they would, but their offense has looked more inept each week for the last month and that's bad news against a team that puts up points on everyone

Iowa as dogs would def make sense, I was pretty shocked at the line. Don’t care how square it is it either gophers plus money or nothing for me.
 
I'm with you guys--I though Baylor took the wraps off a hot passing game against Oklahoma State. Now it looks like that was more an indictment of the Ok State defense than anything Baylor can rely on.

Or maybe Brewer is taking so many shots he isn't the passer he was. Every game I see him take three or four head on kill-shots.

Auburn and Texas Tech look best to me.

Michigan State used to be money against Michigan, especially since Harbaugh arrived, but not this year
 
I'm on a good steak in this weekly thread on the team I mention not only loses but doesn't cover. I'd like UNLV a lot better if Cordeiro was still on the bench for Hawaii. This is a pretty good under the radar rivalry.

Have to respect Auburn's defense even more after seeing LSU Saturday.
 
If I remember right, I think Cordeiro came off the bench vs UNLV last year for the come-from-behind win.

When I bet against Hawaii last week it was partially betting against McDonald and the likely INTs he would throw San Jose.

You see all those rushing yards UH had last week?
 
Baylor has some OL issues for sure. Don't know if this has caught up to them and Brewer is suffering because of it.
 
I've bet against UAB pretty much all year...why stop now? Not sure I'm serious, but UTEP's competitiveness was surprising last week. Locksly had a pretty good game.
 
missouri ? at home looks like world beaters. Their coach seems like he is able to rally them with a motivation speech after a few losses. With Bryant at qb; think they have a shot.
north carolina - seems like a coin flip. UNC likes to throw it deep and at some point these pitt corners are gonna get burned playing that style of defense every play.
california - just showed they can shut down an air raid.
syracuse - duke's offense is pitiful
south carolina - tamu prbly wins but on paper these teams feel dead even.
wyoming - wyoming been undervalued all year. they get up for the big games. utah state overvalued most of year
navy and texas - 2 capable teams
 
we might have some early games this week to look into before we even get to Sat!!

Tues - Zips, W Mich
Wed - BG, N Illiy
Thur - Kent St, UNC
Fri - La Tech, Fresno
 
I'm seeing a lot of favorable trends for the favs this week and weekend boys....not good for us doggie players. However, I did find a couple I most certainly will be on Baylor & Indiana.

Still looking but it's past my bedtime for now....will get to more over the next few days. PS - ND, EMU, Pitt, Florida, & Okie St. are looking like ATS wins to me.

:cool:
 
Vandy may decide to show up
I was looking into this one and it was looking possible until I added their 56-0 loss to FL. That margin of loss quickly reversed all my trends well back in favor of the visiting team. I think the Dores have quit.
 
Iowa as dogs would def make sense, I was pretty shocked at the line. Don’t care how square it is it either gophers plus money or nothing for me.
Yeah, I'm with you. This is not a letdown situation. Gophers look like a good play.
 
we might have some early games this week to look into before we even get to Sat!!

Tues - Zips, W Mich
Wed - BG, N Illiy
Thur - Kent St, UNC
Fri - La Tech, Fresno

I wait for ya’ll smarter than me to listen to who the hell to play in Mac, I’ve always been fond of the hoops but I’ve never paid enough attention to figure out the football.
 
Thought the same thing when I saw this.

I don’t understand that line at all, Utah st offense finally scoring vs Fresno dog shit d does not impressive me, they will have a very tough go of it against wyo and cowboys should run all over them.

Are ppl just fading the qb being out? I knew guys playing Boise cause that and I tried to tell them it didn’t matter wyo don’t throw anyways, not well or often anyway. Lol. They also very good on both sides in the red zone. So far that my favorite of the bunch.

Kinda like navy too. Irish have a long injury list and can’t think they gonna be real interested in getting cut blocked all day!
 
Right on the money about Utah State and Wyoming, El Capo.

Utah has been overvalued and I was one of those who overvalued them. Every game they have lost a little of the level they had under Wells.

Wyoming has played like all Craig Bohl teams, big, tough, guys hitting hard every play, staying in every game, taking a toll on the other team, beating the other team down.
 
1st run through

WMU
NIU
UNC
La Tech
Fresno
Temple
NC St
MN
Wyo
Ore St
AU
KU

This list will have to be narrowed, but appears to be a lot of dog value this week.
 
I wait for ya’ll smarter than me to listen to who the hell to play in Mac, I’ve always been fond of the hoops but I’ve never paid enough attention to figure out the football.


I might put $10 on a Bowling Green ML. I'll see if I can make sense of it and post later.

Doubt Akron will be competitive let alone pull the upset. EMich has had their struggles this year but they still have some good qualities and players.
 
Here is my list to sort through, I generally only look for big ones of about a TD or more:

Indiana
Miss State
UTEP
West Virginia
Syracuse
Colorado State
Cal

I won't do any ML on Bowling Green. Maybe I find myself on them ATS, I don't know, it would be like a $50 bet and there is no room to risk ML money on a $50 ATS bet. Both offenses are not great. BG really lack play makers (Clair is out this week I think - he's been in and out all year). They should be fairly easy O for Miami D to matchup with. Miami O isn't a high powered unit that will shred the BG D, but they should have success more often than not, perhaps slow and steady and just slowly pull away? Miami special teams is a good unit to positively impact the game for them. Just not a game I excited about the upset on.
 
Anyone taking a stab at Miss St +797? I think I might.
How to make a case for the Bulldogs?? Well, first off I did not even consider capping this one because my bias told me no way, Bama is gonna roll! And my bias is almost 95% wrong!! So there's that!! Secondly, there is the obvious possible letdown after possibly losing their shot at the playoffs. I heard both Herbstreit and Danielson say they thought Bama was out of the playoffs if they lost that game. Gotta wonder how many headlines these Tide players are reading....if they read a lot then maybe they think they have lost their shot. Thirdly, pic 1 below shows that teams with winning records from previous season winning away, and playing a team coming off a home loss of less than 10 pts, win SU at a 78% clip! Pic 2 shows a bit more finer comparisons comparing current season wins and previous week's results. What I like about it is it uncludes wins by a 10pt and 19pt dog!! Pic 3 is a comparison showing wins by the same 10pt dog but also a 5.5pt dog. This would truly be the upset of the weekend @s--k ! Fourthly, consensus on Bama is up over 80% Holy Public Fades Batman! I like it but I have to get over the fact Saban coached teams rarely have letdowns but there is definitely some mojo toward the home team here!! Looking forward to your write-up!

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Anyone taking a stab at Miss St +797? I think I might.
Here is my list to sort through, I generally only look for big ones of about a TD or more:

Indiana
Miss State
UTEP
West Virginia
Syracuse
Colorado State
Cal

I won't do any ML on Bowling Green. Maybe I find myself on them ATS, I don't know, it would be like a $50 bet and there is no room to risk ML money on a $50 ATS bet. Both offenses are not great. BG really lack play makers (Clair is out this week I think - he's been in and out all year). They should be fairly easy O for Miami D to matchup with. Miami O isn't a high powered unit that will shred the BG D, but they should have success more often than not, perhaps slow and steady and just slowly pull away? Miami special teams is a good unit to positively impact the game for them. Just not a game I excited about the upset on.
I'm pretty sure you have said you cannot bet halves or qtrs but I was going to say BG 1st half ML would be the play....FWIW, I cannot see them pulling this off FG.
 
Cuse @ Duke: for anyone wanting a statistical comparison of how home teams have fared after losing by 30pts or more, both teams had winning seasons the year before, and both teams are currently undergoing losing seasons, they have NEVER won SU!! See pic 1. And, I said to myself, well what if they were playing a team coming off a loss of 20 or more?? They still have NEVER won SU!! See pic 2. These results do already include another -12pt fav so there is a documented history of a comparable game to refer to. Cuse for the LARGE boys!!

duke-Cuse.jpg

duke-cuse2.jpg
 
I agree JRock about BG 1st H vs full game. I think I will just try them 1st half and see if I can steal one.

Thanks for looking up the info on Miss St and Cuse. I'm pretty busy today but will see what I might look up later.
 
Yeah, the Mississippi State thing. Seems so silly to think about it because when Alabama loses, they do so to either a very very good / fellow-elite team or they lose to a team that gets exceptional QB play. Miss St isn't either nor do they possess such a QB. So right there, why even think about this. Even if it is just $10, I'd probably have more fun with $10 at the bar for as likely as this is to actually happen.

But I don't know. As unlikely as this would be, if it happens I would want to be on it and to risk $10 to do it, that's fine. We are talking MLs here, ofcourse if I am going to ML it I will be ATS too.

Here are the only things I can come up with to lend any kind of support.

Mississippi State did face LSU after their Florida game and in that game it was only 9-7 late 1st H as LSU was held to 3 FGs in the Red Zone. LSU did score 2 quick TDs before HT, one on a busted coverage, to gain 22-7 separation. Also, in that game Miss St held LSU to season lows in yardage, Tigers 413 yards is 125 below their average and their 36 pts are 10.7 below their average. Can Mississippi St do something similar vs Alabama? And even if they do, can Miss St O come close enough on the scoreboard to threaten to win the game?

Trying to find a game somewhat similar on Alabama's schedule to what a Mississippi State backer might want to compare to, maybe the Tennessee game. Bama won 35-13, but the score is misleading due to the 100y fumble return TD Bama got. Had Vols scored there it would've been just 28-20. Bama did outgain them by 142 yards however. Tua got hurt and left that game late 2nd Q. He was playing really well, even with the 1 INT, it was his only incompletion on 12 attempts. If Tua plays this week, I can't help but think he will not be his normal super-self with limited mobility and maybe that ankle soreness gets worse as the game goes on like it did last week. So let's say the QB stat line vs MSU is similar to what Bama did vs Vols, that would be 18-24-233-1-1, sacked 2x (QBs had net -11y rushing). That would be a dream situation for Miss St. Possible? Probably just a dream.

I have not liked or bet Mississippi State at all this year and in fact I believe I have bet against them atleast 6 times off the top of my head, mostly with good results. So why flip now?

I think the offense is figuring some things out. Until the last 2 weeks, they've been a mess on offense this season and injured often at QB leading to poor QB play throughout. Stevens is said to be 100% and he is off a nice confidence building game (vs abysmal Arkansas). He was supposed to be good - even though he probably transfered from PSU because he would've been beaten out by Clifford. I'm hoping some confidence, full health and playing to the believed potential/hype can all come together and Bulldog's can be productive on O. I want Stevens, I don't want Schrader even though he brings the running element more than Stevens, which sometimes Bama struggles with - but Schrader is more of a liability in the passing game and I fear INTs. Miss St running game has also reemerged the last 2 weeks, Alabama's run D is light years better than what Miss St has faced the last 2 weeks, but it is not a vintage D unit for Bama. If Miss St can execute they should be able to get some yards. This is an area Miss St has notoriously struggled with vs Bama - as in, like totally shut down. This has to change. Will it? History says no. But you have to play the game to find out.

So if I roll it all together...little bit of a let down by Bama, Bama O might not be top flight limited by Tua's injury, Bama D good, but down by their standards. Miss St playing better on O to give them confidence, off bye at home and as healthy as they have been all season.

Other people are going to take the position that Alabama is mad. And Alabama is going to be out to prove something. Maybe. People have to go with whatever works in their heads. That doesn't work for me. I never try and find ways a big favorite win will and cover. I try and find ways big dogs will cover and maybe win outright.

We are talking about straight up wins, upsets, in here. This would be an enormously unexpected upset. Nobody else is probably stupid enough to even utter the potential of it for fear of never being taken seriously again. But sometimes, when these uspets happen, if you want to be part of it after-the-fact, you have to take a chance before the fact. And the best ones, the most surprising ones, nobody ever sees coming. For me, there is no better feeling than being one of those people that does. You are wrong alot more than you are right, but being that kind of right when it happens never feels better. That is what I'm searching for.
 
Yeah, the Mississippi State thing. Seems so silly to think about it because when Alabama loses, they do so to either a very very good / fellow-elite team or they lose to a team that gets exceptional QB play. Miss St isn't either nor do they possess such a QB. So right there, why even think about this. Even if it is just $10, I'd probably have more fun with $10 at the bar for as likely as this is to actually happen.

But I don't know. As unlikely as this would be, if it happens I would want to be on it and to risk $10 to do it, that's fine. We are talking MLs here, ofcourse if I am going to ML it I will be ATS too.

Here are the only things I can come up with to lend any kind of support.

Mississippi State did face LSU after their Florida game and in that game it was only 9-7 late 1st H as LSU was held to 3 FGs in the Red Zone. LSU did score 2 quick TDs before HT, one on a busted coverage, to gain 22-7 separation. Also, in that game Miss St held LSU to season lows in yardage, Tigers 413 yards is 125 below their average and their 36 pts are 10.7 below their average. Can Mississippi St do something similar vs Alabama? And even if they do, can Miss St O come close enough on the scoreboard to threaten to win the game?

Trying to find a game somewhat similar on Alabama's schedule to what a Mississippi State backer might want to compare to, maybe the Tennessee game. Bama won 35-13, but the score is misleading due to the 100y fumble return TD Bama got. Had Vols scored there it would've been just 28-20. Bama did outgain them by 142 yards however. Tua got hurt and left that game late 2nd Q. He was playing really well, even with the 1 INT, it was his only incompletion on 12 attempts. If Tua plays this week, I can't help but think he will not be his normal super-self with limited mobility and maybe that ankle soreness gets worse as the game goes on like it did last week. So let's say the QB stat line vs MSU is similar to what Bama did vs Vols, that would be 18-24-233-1-1, sacked 2x (QBs had net -11y rushing). That would be a dream situation for Miss St. Possible? Probably just a dream.

I have not liked or bet Mississippi State at all this year and in fact I believe I have bet against them atleast 6 times off the top of my head, mostly with good results. So why flip now?

I think the offense is figuring some things out. Until the last 2 weeks, they've been a mess on offense this season and injured often at QB leading to poor QB play throughout. Stevens is said to be 100% and he is off a nice confidence building game (vs abysmal Arkansas). He was supposed to be good - even though he probably transfered from PSU because he would've been beaten out by Clifford. I'm hoping some confidence, full health and playing to the believed potential/hype can all come together and Bulldog's can be productive on O. I want Stevens, I don't want Schrader even though he brings the running element more than Stevens, which sometimes Bama struggles with - but Schrader is more of a liability in the passing game and I fear INTs. Miss St running game has also reemerged the last 2 weeks, Alabama's run D is light years better than what Miss St has faced the last 2 weeks, but it is not a vintage D unit for Bama. If Miss St can execute they should be able to get some yards. This is an area Miss St has notoriously struggled with vs Bama - as in, like totally shut down. This has to change. Will it? History says no. But you have to play the game to find out.

So if I roll it all together...little bit of a let down by Bama, Bama O might not be top flight limited by Tua's injury, Bama D good, but down by their standards. Miss St playing better on O to give them confidence, off bye at home and as healthy as they have been all season.

Other people are going to take the position that Alabama is mad. And Alabama is going to be out to prove something. Maybe. People have to go with whatever works in their heads. That doesn't work for me. I never try and find ways a big favorite win will and cover. I try and find ways big dogs will cover and maybe win outright.

We are talking about straight up wins, upsets, in here. This would be an enormously unexpected upset. Nobody else is probably stupid enough to even utter the potential of it for fear of never being taken seriously again. But sometimes, when these uspets happen, if you want to be part of it after-the-fact, you have to take a chance before the fact. And the best ones, the most surprising ones, nobody ever sees coming. For me, there is no better feeling than being one of those people that does. You are wrong alot more than you are right, but being that kind of right when it happens never feels better. That is what I'm searching for.
GL with this. Defensively, MSU passing is nothing to fear. I believe Bama will force them to throw by stacking the box. Hill is the only threat MSU possesses. MSU defensively is a below average unit. Even if Tua sits, Bamas skill players are still fully capable of taking the top off. I agree with many of the Bama pundits. Get up early and cruise. Backdoor should be open, but victory should be comfortable for the Tide.
 
How to make a case for the Bulldogs?? Well, first off I did not even consider capping this one because my bias told me no way, Bama is gonna roll! And my bias is almost 95% wrong!! So there's that!! Secondly, there is the obvious possible letdown after possibly losing their shot at the playoffs. I heard both Herbstreit and Danielson say they thought Bama was out of the playoffs if they lost that game. Gotta wonder how many headlines these Tide players are reading....if they read a lot then maybe they think they have lost their shot. Thirdly, pic 1 below shows that teams with winning records from previous season winning away, and playing a team coming off a home loss of less than 10 pts, win SU at a 78% clip! Pic 2 shows a bit more finer comparisons comparing current season wins and previous week's results. What I like about it is it uncludes wins by a 10pt and 19pt dog!! Pic 3 is a comparison showing wins by the same 10pt dog but also a 5.5pt dog. This would truly be the upset of the weekend @s--k ! Fourthly, consensus on Bama is up over 80% Holy Public Fades Batman! I like it but I have to get over the fact Saban coached teams rarely have letdowns but there is definitely some mojo toward the home team here!! Looking forward to your write-up!

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The only thing I’d say here is I don’t think bama feels as if their playoff hopes are dead., they should feel pretty damn good about that ranking!! If they go to auburn in few weeks and throttle them it kinda appears committee isn’t gonna have a ducks team who lost to auburn on a neutral leapfrog them! Not saying it right or that it for sure happen, just that I wouldn’t count on bama thinking the season is over, almost the contrary and they might be looking to put as many style points up as possible.,

Certainly think a case could be made for fading LSU or bama this week but I think this angle being talked about would prob make me lean to fading LSU before bama.
 
Yeah, the Mississippi State thing. Seems so silly to think about it because when Alabama loses, they do so to either a very very good / fellow-elite team or they lose to a team that gets exceptional QB play. Miss St isn't either nor do they possess such a QB. So right there, why even think about this. Even if it is just $10, I'd probably have more fun with $10 at the bar for as likely as this is to actually happen.

But I don't know. As unlikely as this would be, if it happens I would want to be on it and to risk $10 to do it, that's fine. We are talking MLs here, ofcourse if I am going to ML it I will be ATS too.

Here are the only things I can come up with to lend any kind of support.

Mississippi State did face LSU after their Florida game and in that game it was only 9-7 late 1st H as LSU was held to 3 FGs in the Red Zone. LSU did score 2 quick TDs before HT, one on a busted coverage, to gain 22-7 separation. Also, in that game Miss St held LSU to season lows in yardage, Tigers 413 yards is 125 below their average and their 36 pts are 10.7 below their average. Can Mississippi St do something similar vs Alabama? And even if they do, can Miss St O come close enough on the scoreboard to threaten to win the game?

Trying to find a game somewhat similar on Alabama's schedule to what a Mississippi State backer might want to compare to, maybe the Tennessee game. Bama won 35-13, but the score is misleading due to the 100y fumble return TD Bama got. Had Vols scored there it would've been just 28-20. Bama did outgain them by 142 yards however. Tua got hurt and left that game late 2nd Q. He was playing really well, even with the 1 INT, it was his only incompletion on 12 attempts. If Tua plays this week, I can't help but think he will not be his normal super-self with limited mobility and maybe that ankle soreness gets worse as the game goes on like it did last week. So let's say the QB stat line vs MSU is similar to what Bama did vs Vols, that would be 18-24-233-1-1, sacked 2x (QBs had net -11y rushing). That would be a dream situation for Miss St. Possible? Probably just a dream.

I have not liked or bet Mississippi State at all this year and in fact I believe I have bet against them atleast 6 times off the top of my head, mostly with good results. So why flip now?

I think the offense is figuring some things out. Until the last 2 weeks, they've been a mess on offense this season and injured often at QB leading to poor QB play throughout. Stevens is said to be 100% and he is off a nice confidence building game (vs abysmal Arkansas). He was supposed to be good - even though he probably transfered from PSU because he would've been beaten out by Clifford. I'm hoping some confidence, full health and playing to the believed potential/hype can all come together and Bulldog's can be productive on O. I want Stevens, I don't want Schrader even though he brings the running element more than Stevens, which sometimes Bama struggles with - but Schrader is more of a liability in the passing game and I fear INTs. Miss St running game has also reemerged the last 2 weeks, Alabama's run D is light years better than what Miss St has faced the last 2 weeks, but it is not a vintage D unit for Bama. If Miss St can execute they should be able to get some yards. This is an area Miss St has notoriously struggled with vs Bama - as in, like totally shut down. This has to change. Will it? History says no. But you have to play the game to find out.

So if I roll it all together...little bit of a let down by Bama, Bama O might not be top flight limited by Tua's injury, Bama D good, but down by their standards. Miss St playing better on O to give them confidence, off bye at home and as healthy as they have been all season.

Other people are going to take the position that Alabama is mad. And Alabama is going to be out to prove something. Maybe. People have to go with whatever works in their heads. That doesn't work for me. I never try and find ways a big favorite win will and cover. I try and find ways big dogs will cover and maybe win outright.

We are talking about straight up wins, upsets, in here. This would be an enormously unexpected upset. Nobody else is probably stupid enough to even utter the potential of it for fear of never being taken seriously again. But sometimes, when these uspets happen, if you want to be part of it after-the-fact, you have to take a chance before the fact. And the best ones, the most surprising ones, nobody ever sees coming. For me, there is no better feeling than being one of those people that does. You are wrong alot more than you are right, but being that kind of right when it happens never feels better. That is what I'm searching for.

My previous comment that bama May be out to prove something certainly in no way was meant to sound as if I was making a case to bet on them! More so why I’m staying away. Laying bunch of points rarely my style either, why I like this thread so much!! Lol.

Really only time I’ve laid a big number since very early was Clemson 1st half vs ncst and that was strictly they set up of them being 5th in ranking and basically stand alone prime time.
 
GL with this.

I will take, and need, any luck I can get.

A Mississippi State ML over Alabama was actually my first ever ML. My local was not accepting MLs, but my wife was in Las Vegas for a wedding. I had her put it in for me out there. Croom was passed up for Shula and I knew that this game just meant so much to him and one day, he would beat Bama and it would be great. Nice win. I also know for a fact I bet MSU ATS the prior year when State was getting just over 2 TDs, but lost 17-0 and didn't cover. Bama scored both TDs on D, or maybe one D one ST...pretty sure there was a about a 100y pick six right before halftime or something like that. I got revenge in 2006! There were probably other MLs on MSU against Bama that failed for me. The 2006 upset was a good one for sure!
 
The only thing I’d say here is I don’t think bama feels as if their playoff hopes are dead., they should feel pretty damn good about that ranking!! If they go to auburn in few weeks and throttle them it kinda appears committee isn’t gonna have a ducks team who lost to auburn on a neutral leapfrog them! Not saying it right or that it for sure happen, just that I wouldn’t count on bama thinking the season is over, almost the contrary and they might be looking to put as many style points up as possible.,

Certainly think a case could be made for fading LSU or bama this week but I think this angle being talked about would prob make me lean to fading LSU before bama.

Oh no, I'm not saying they think their season is over. It's not. I don't know what they think or want to do, none of us do.

My only angle on a let down is that after an a tough emotional game that they lost, it will be hard to match that level of play this week, especially for some of the youth on the team this year.

I have no idea how they feel about their playoff hopes. For all I know they could be consumed by it, or don't even worry about it. That has no influence of how I think they play this week.
 
Here is what I'm thinking on West Virginia.

WVU may be making a QB change. Austin Kendall has put up some numbers, but suffered with accuracy, INTs and range on the deep ball (receivers have also dropped good number of balls).

Last week they put in Jarret Doege after Kendal had thrown for 355 in the game but missed some big throws and didn't execute in the RZ. Doege's first appearance of the year was a 11-17-119-1-0 garbage time performance, but there may be reason for optimism. Doege passed for 4041 with a 39-15 ratio in two years at Bowling Green. If Kendall's weakness is the deep ball, it is a strength of Doege.

Brown has not announced what the exact QB plans will be this week, but 3 games remaining and Doege in line for a redshirt season having sat out the previous 8 games it is likely Doege is going to get his chance these final 3 games and build towards a 2020 season at the helm.

WVU's pass eff D is last in the Big Xll. However Kansas St doesn't operate in that fashion suited to exploit it, attempting only 23 passes per game on average and having only surpassed 220y once on the season (last week at Texas 253). WVU D might be able to handle a more modest passing attack.

Kansas St is typically a good running team. WVU's strength on D, to the extent they have a strength, is their DL lead by the Stills brothers. The D is also expected to get a boost when third leading tackler Josh Chandler returns this week after missing the last 2. In 6 Big Xll games, WVU D actually has allowed fewer yard per game and nearly 2ypc better on the ground than K ST's run D.

Kansas State is off of 3 big games...the OU upset, the KU rivalry, the game at Texas that went to the wire and now they play a losing team that has struggled with a first year coach (first year coach Neil Brown, who was interviewed for the K St job and not selected - don't know how much that motivates him, if more than average or not, or a non-factor just noting). K St might be able to bring consistent effort and focus each week, but after a big 3 game run like that they also might be down a notch this week. Where as, WVU O might be on the up if Doege can improve the passing game to make some of the plays that Kendall has been missing. And a normally bad WVU D might actually not match-up so poorly with an average-ish K St O.

Kansas St is better and has played better vs better teams. But in terms of these teams matching up against each other, I don't feel there is a vast difference...not a 2 TD difference. Big Xll always seems to have a good number of upsets as the teams in the middle of the pack aren't too much better than the rest of the league. If WVU is closer to the middle of the pack or a true cellar dweller I suppose we will learn Saturday. I think they might surprise.
 
You know, the Iowa State line...this game would be about a pick in Austin? Really?

The best thing Iowa State has done this year is play teams close, right? 3pt win vs N Iowa, 1 pt loss vs Iowa, 2 pt loss at Baylor, 7 pt loss vs OkSt, 1 pt loss at OU. Did beat TCU, WVU and TT by average of 20 ppg.

I don't know. ISU is a good team, better than their 5-4 record, but they haven't been able to get it done in alot of games. Maybe they are due for one? Kinda lean Texas with the points and can't say anyone would be surprised if Horns won would they....after all it might just be yet another close loss for ISU which is totally normal.
 
Nobody else is probably stupid enough to even utter the potential of it for fear of never being taken seriously again.
Kinda like my Bowling Green pick last night? Ugh!

No worries @s--k you may have a valid point for those who are not familiar with your posts. And you most certainly would get this reaction at a board like Blankets. But that's why we post at CTG man....lots of great people here. Don't worry about this and let's roll! Well....not Roll Tide at least.
 
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