I watched Baylor and their deep balls against Okie State and it conjured up memories of the outside speed they had in Briles heyday. But they've all of sudden just lost that facet of their offense.
Was sure all weekend I would be listing Iowa on this thread, but they are favored. Those oddsmakers piss me off sometimes
Auburn and Ole Miss look good and I expect the line may move their way during the week.
Baylor not so much. They are getting a lot more points than I thought they would, but their offense has looked more inept each week for the last month and that's bad news against a team that puts up points on everyone
Thought the same thing when I saw this.1st glance wyo is def interesting to me, Utah st overvalued again?
I was looking into this one and it was looking possible until I added their 56-0 loss to FL. That margin of loss quickly reversed all my trends well back in favor of the visiting team. I think the Dores have quit.Vandy may decide to show up
Yeah, I'm with you. This is not a letdown situation. Gophers look like a good play.Iowa as dogs would def make sense, I was pretty shocked at the line. Don’t care how square it is it either gophers plus money or nothing for me.
we might have some early games this week to look into before we even get to Sat!!
Tues - Zips, W Mich
Wed - BG, N Illiy
Thur - Kent St, UNC
Fri - La Tech, Fresno
Thought the same thing when I saw this.
I wait for ya’ll smarter than me to listen to who the hell to play in Mac, I’ve always been fond of the hoops but I’ve never paid enough attention to figure out the football.
I might put $10 on a Bowling Green ML. I'll see if I can make sense of it and post later.
Doubt Akron will be competitive let alone pull the upset. EMich has had their struggles this year but they still have some good qualities and players.
1st run through
WMU
NIU
UNC
La Tech
Fresno
Temple
NC St
MN
Wyo
Ore St
AU
KU
This list will have to be narrowed, but appears to be a lot of dog value this week.
How to make a case for the Bulldogs?? Well, first off I did not even consider capping this one because my bias told me no way, Bama is gonna roll! And my bias is almost 95% wrong!! So there's that!! Secondly, there is the obvious possible letdown after possibly losing their shot at the playoffs. I heard both Herbstreit and Danielson say they thought Bama was out of the playoffs if they lost that game. Gotta wonder how many headlines these Tide players are reading....if they read a lot then maybe they think they have lost their shot. Thirdly, pic 1 below shows that teams with winning records from previous season winning away, and playing a team coming off a home loss of less than 10 pts, win SU at a 78% clip! Pic 2 shows a bit more finer comparisons comparing current season wins and previous week's results. What I like about it is it uncludes wins by a 10pt and 19pt dog!! Pic 3 is a comparison showing wins by the same 10pt dog but also a 5.5pt dog. This would truly be the upset of the weekend @s--k ! Fourthly, consensus on Bama is up over 80% Holy Public Fades Batman! I like it but I have to get over the fact Saban coached teams rarely have letdowns but there is definitely some mojo toward the home team here!! Looking forward to your write-up!Anyone taking a stab at Miss St +797? I think I might.
Anyone taking a stab at Miss St +797? I think I might.
I'm pretty sure you have said you cannot bet halves or qtrs but I was going to say BG 1st half ML would be the play....FWIW, I cannot see them pulling this off FG.Here is my list to sort through, I generally only look for big ones of about a TD or more:
Indiana
Miss State
UTEP
West Virginia
Syracuse
Colorado State
Cal
I won't do any ML on Bowling Green. Maybe I find myself on them ATS, I don't know, it would be like a $50 bet and there is no room to risk ML money on a $50 ATS bet. Both offenses are not great. BG really lack play makers (Clair is out this week I think - he's been in and out all year). They should be fairly easy O for Miami D to matchup with. Miami O isn't a high powered unit that will shred the BG D, but they should have success more often than not, perhaps slow and steady and just slowly pull away? Miami special teams is a good unit to positively impact the game for them. Just not a game I excited about the upset on.
GL with this. Defensively, MSU passing is nothing to fear. I believe Bama will force them to throw by stacking the box. Hill is the only threat MSU possesses. MSU defensively is a below average unit. Even if Tua sits, Bamas skill players are still fully capable of taking the top off. I agree with many of the Bama pundits. Get up early and cruise. Backdoor should be open, but victory should be comfortable for the Tide.Yeah, the Mississippi State thing. Seems so silly to think about it because when Alabama loses, they do so to either a very very good / fellow-elite team or they lose to a team that gets exceptional QB play. Miss St isn't either nor do they possess such a QB. So right there, why even think about this. Even if it is just $10, I'd probably have more fun with $10 at the bar for as likely as this is to actually happen.
But I don't know. As unlikely as this would be, if it happens I would want to be on it and to risk $10 to do it, that's fine. We are talking MLs here, ofcourse if I am going to ML it I will be ATS too.
Here are the only things I can come up with to lend any kind of support.
Mississippi State did face LSU after their Florida game and in that game it was only 9-7 late 1st H as LSU was held to 3 FGs in the Red Zone. LSU did score 2 quick TDs before HT, one on a busted coverage, to gain 22-7 separation. Also, in that game Miss St held LSU to season lows in yardage, Tigers 413 yards is 125 below their average and their 36 pts are 10.7 below their average. Can Mississippi St do something similar vs Alabama? And even if they do, can Miss St O come close enough on the scoreboard to threaten to win the game?
Trying to find a game somewhat similar on Alabama's schedule to what a Mississippi State backer might want to compare to, maybe the Tennessee game. Bama won 35-13, but the score is misleading due to the 100y fumble return TD Bama got. Had Vols scored there it would've been just 28-20. Bama did outgain them by 142 yards however. Tua got hurt and left that game late 2nd Q. He was playing really well, even with the 1 INT, it was his only incompletion on 12 attempts. If Tua plays this week, I can't help but think he will not be his normal super-self with limited mobility and maybe that ankle soreness gets worse as the game goes on like it did last week. So let's say the QB stat line vs MSU is similar to what Bama did vs Vols, that would be 18-24-233-1-1, sacked 2x (QBs had net -11y rushing). That would be a dream situation for Miss St. Possible? Probably just a dream.
I have not liked or bet Mississippi State at all this year and in fact I believe I have bet against them atleast 6 times off the top of my head, mostly with good results. So why flip now?
I think the offense is figuring some things out. Until the last 2 weeks, they've been a mess on offense this season and injured often at QB leading to poor QB play throughout. Stevens is said to be 100% and he is off a nice confidence building game (vs abysmal Arkansas). He was supposed to be good - even though he probably transfered from PSU because he would've been beaten out by Clifford. I'm hoping some confidence, full health and playing to the believed potential/hype can all come together and Bulldog's can be productive on O. I want Stevens, I don't want Schrader even though he brings the running element more than Stevens, which sometimes Bama struggles with - but Schrader is more of a liability in the passing game and I fear INTs. Miss St running game has also reemerged the last 2 weeks, Alabama's run D is light years better than what Miss St has faced the last 2 weeks, but it is not a vintage D unit for Bama. If Miss St can execute they should be able to get some yards. This is an area Miss St has notoriously struggled with vs Bama - as in, like totally shut down. This has to change. Will it? History says no. But you have to play the game to find out.
So if I roll it all together...little bit of a let down by Bama, Bama O might not be top flight limited by Tua's injury, Bama D good, but down by their standards. Miss St playing better on O to give them confidence, off bye at home and as healthy as they have been all season.
Other people are going to take the position that Alabama is mad. And Alabama is going to be out to prove something. Maybe. People have to go with whatever works in their heads. That doesn't work for me. I never try and find ways a big favorite win will and cover. I try and find ways big dogs will cover and maybe win outright.
We are talking about straight up wins, upsets, in here. This would be an enormously unexpected upset. Nobody else is probably stupid enough to even utter the potential of it for fear of never being taken seriously again. But sometimes, when these uspets happen, if you want to be part of it after-the-fact, you have to take a chance before the fact. And the best ones, the most surprising ones, nobody ever sees coming. For me, there is no better feeling than being one of those people that does. You are wrong alot more than you are right, but being that kind of right when it happens never feels better. That is what I'm searching for.
How to make a case for the Bulldogs?? Well, first off I did not even consider capping this one because my bias told me no way, Bama is gonna roll! And my bias is almost 95% wrong!! So there's that!! Secondly, there is the obvious possible letdown after possibly losing their shot at the playoffs. I heard both Herbstreit and Danielson say they thought Bama was out of the playoffs if they lost that game. Gotta wonder how many headlines these Tide players are reading....if they read a lot then maybe they think they have lost their shot. Thirdly, pic 1 below shows that teams with winning records from previous season winning away, and playing a team coming off a home loss of less than 10 pts, win SU at a 78% clip! Pic 2 shows a bit more finer comparisons comparing current season wins and previous week's results. What I like about it is it uncludes wins by a 10pt and 19pt dog!! Pic 3 is a comparison showing wins by the same 10pt dog but also a 5.5pt dog. This would truly be the upset of the weekend @s--k ! Fourthly, consensus on Bama is up over 80% Holy Public Fades Batman! I like it but I have to get over the fact Saban coached teams rarely have letdowns but there is definitely some mojo toward the home team here!! Looking forward to your write-up!
View attachment 44119
View attachment 44117
View attachment 44118
Yeah, the Mississippi State thing. Seems so silly to think about it because when Alabama loses, they do so to either a very very good / fellow-elite team or they lose to a team that gets exceptional QB play. Miss St isn't either nor do they possess such a QB. So right there, why even think about this. Even if it is just $10, I'd probably have more fun with $10 at the bar for as likely as this is to actually happen.
But I don't know. As unlikely as this would be, if it happens I would want to be on it and to risk $10 to do it, that's fine. We are talking MLs here, ofcourse if I am going to ML it I will be ATS too.
Here are the only things I can come up with to lend any kind of support.
Mississippi State did face LSU after their Florida game and in that game it was only 9-7 late 1st H as LSU was held to 3 FGs in the Red Zone. LSU did score 2 quick TDs before HT, one on a busted coverage, to gain 22-7 separation. Also, in that game Miss St held LSU to season lows in yardage, Tigers 413 yards is 125 below their average and their 36 pts are 10.7 below their average. Can Mississippi St do something similar vs Alabama? And even if they do, can Miss St O come close enough on the scoreboard to threaten to win the game?
Trying to find a game somewhat similar on Alabama's schedule to what a Mississippi State backer might want to compare to, maybe the Tennessee game. Bama won 35-13, but the score is misleading due to the 100y fumble return TD Bama got. Had Vols scored there it would've been just 28-20. Bama did outgain them by 142 yards however. Tua got hurt and left that game late 2nd Q. He was playing really well, even with the 1 INT, it was his only incompletion on 12 attempts. If Tua plays this week, I can't help but think he will not be his normal super-self with limited mobility and maybe that ankle soreness gets worse as the game goes on like it did last week. So let's say the QB stat line vs MSU is similar to what Bama did vs Vols, that would be 18-24-233-1-1, sacked 2x (QBs had net -11y rushing). That would be a dream situation for Miss St. Possible? Probably just a dream.
I have not liked or bet Mississippi State at all this year and in fact I believe I have bet against them atleast 6 times off the top of my head, mostly with good results. So why flip now?
I think the offense is figuring some things out. Until the last 2 weeks, they've been a mess on offense this season and injured often at QB leading to poor QB play throughout. Stevens is said to be 100% and he is off a nice confidence building game (vs abysmal Arkansas). He was supposed to be good - even though he probably transfered from PSU because he would've been beaten out by Clifford. I'm hoping some confidence, full health and playing to the believed potential/hype can all come together and Bulldog's can be productive on O. I want Stevens, I don't want Schrader even though he brings the running element more than Stevens, which sometimes Bama struggles with - but Schrader is more of a liability in the passing game and I fear INTs. Miss St running game has also reemerged the last 2 weeks, Alabama's run D is light years better than what Miss St has faced the last 2 weeks, but it is not a vintage D unit for Bama. If Miss St can execute they should be able to get some yards. This is an area Miss St has notoriously struggled with vs Bama - as in, like totally shut down. This has to change. Will it? History says no. But you have to play the game to find out.
So if I roll it all together...little bit of a let down by Bama, Bama O might not be top flight limited by Tua's injury, Bama D good, but down by their standards. Miss St playing better on O to give them confidence, off bye at home and as healthy as they have been all season.
Other people are going to take the position that Alabama is mad. And Alabama is going to be out to prove something. Maybe. People have to go with whatever works in their heads. That doesn't work for me. I never try and find ways a big favorite win will and cover. I try and find ways big dogs will cover and maybe win outright.
We are talking about straight up wins, upsets, in here. This would be an enormously unexpected upset. Nobody else is probably stupid enough to even utter the potential of it for fear of never being taken seriously again. But sometimes, when these uspets happen, if you want to be part of it after-the-fact, you have to take a chance before the fact. And the best ones, the most surprising ones, nobody ever sees coming. For me, there is no better feeling than being one of those people that does. You are wrong alot more than you are right, but being that kind of right when it happens never feels better. That is what I'm searching for.
GL with this.
The only thing I’d say here is I don’t think bama feels as if their playoff hopes are dead., they should feel pretty damn good about that ranking!! If they go to auburn in few weeks and throttle them it kinda appears committee isn’t gonna have a ducks team who lost to auburn on a neutral leapfrog them! Not saying it right or that it for sure happen, just that I wouldn’t count on bama thinking the season is over, almost the contrary and they might be looking to put as many style points up as possible.,
Certainly think a case could be made for fading LSU or bama this week but I think this angle being talked about would prob make me lean to fading LSU before bama.
Let's see if I can steal one (as @s--k puts it) with BG 1st Half tonight to get my party started!
Kinda like my Bowling Green pick last night? Ugh!Nobody else is probably stupid enough to even utter the potential of it for fear of never being taken seriously again.