Week 12 CFB plays, writeups, and discussion




redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
Spreads
Week 11: 5-6, -4.31 units
total: 92-69-2, 56.4%, +52.46 units

Hawaii/SJSU Over 73 (-105)

ML Dogs
Week 11: 3-9, -1.91 units
Overall: 39-73, 34.8% +10.93 units

As lines come out, I'll have better ideas, but as I look over things I'll post something about them.

Ball St/Toledo

Everything unexpected is happening in the MAC - so everything else is obviously right with the world. Toledo rushes for 238 yards on NIU while holding the huskies and Wolfe to 23 rushing yards. Ball State runs with Michigan actually making a mild threat to upend the powerhouse sniffing for a NC. Sure, Michigan wasn't playing their best game or gameplan, but the defense should have held Ball State to less than 26 points. That's an incredible outperform on the part of the Cardinals, and though they lost, it isn't the sort of situation where they've blown their wad of spirit (Michigan St)on that loss. Toledo is off a heartbreaking loss to Eastern Michigan and then two solid wins against Akron and Northern Illinois. This isn't the sort of clash of titans this game could be snicker), and I fully expect one or both of these teams to utterly collapse. I figure about 80% likely that it's Toledo. Strange shit happens in the mac, and it seems to revolve around the Rockets' games that I bet on. If you saw the Toledo-EMU game, then you know what I mean.

I'm thining Toledo will be a 6 or 7pt fave, and I'll hit Ball St on the pts or ML, whichever makes more sense oddswise.
 
Ball St +196
Miami Oh +150

Central Michigan -3 (-105) 2 units
Virginia +3 (-102) 2 units
Maryland +6.5 (+105) 2 units
Michigan +6.5 (-101) 4 units
Southern Cal -6 (+102) 2 units

Still looking at a few more...especially ML dogs. I think UM and UVA are somewhat undervalued on the ML for now. Might pick some up later if it gets better. I can't turn down that low juice on UM right now. Same deal for that ML later, as well...

I'm getting almost 2:1 on Ball st. Shiney. Getting 1.5:1 on Miami. I'll be real surprised if I lose both.
 
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Hawaii/SJSU over 73

Hawaii has been scoring over 60pts every home game. SJSU has looked better and better since they came back from an immense halftime deficit to beat Stanford. Now, okay, yeah, it's stanford, but this was back before Stanford lost all their frontline players to injury, and Stanford was looking, for a whole HALF of football, like they just might squeak a few wins out of this season. This SJSU team has improved all year, and they came damn close to picking up a win over the not-so-vaunted-away-from-home Boise St team. The trojans gathered 270 yards of total offense, 97 of them on the ground. that's less than 4ypc. I know Hawaii's defense is better than usual this year, but attrition has beaten down the bows defense. They're at home, so they'll have more warm bodies, but the defensive line has been obliterared. Check Hawaii at donbest here. So while I still like em, udnerstand that they'll give up some yards and likely some points.

SJSU gave up 358 balanced yards to Boise St. Colt Brennan makes Zabransky look like a pop warner QB. I do think Johnson is a tad better than Ian Johnson, and Johnson picked up 5.1ypc for a total of 149 yards. But you can't drop 6 or 7 DBs into coverage and expect to hold a behemoth like iloa to less than 6ypc. I'll be surprised if Hawaii doesn't put up 450-500 yards or more. Perhaps 52, 49 points out of Hawaii. Maybe more. Perhaps 24 out of SJSU. Maybe more. Likely not less in each of those cases. Just my opinion, but this smells low to me. I am thinking of tryingto middle this late Saturday. I'll make that decision then. Please suggest to everyone to take that over 77..........
 
Miami Oh, +150 at Bowling Green

Here's the thing. between MAC and Sun Belt games, you can always find 1-4 games where you look at it, you examine all the stats, you sniff through who should be motivated........and you just don't see why either should be favored. I do know a few things...Miami can score, Bowling Green can find spectacular ways to lose, and beating EMU 24-21, FLINT 33-28, and Barfalo 48-40 in OT are not at all impressive. This is one of those the MAC SUCKS bets. We shall see how it goes.
 
Central Michigan -3 (-105) 2 units

The Chips are easily the best team in the MAC. This is the team who beats all comers in the conference this year - they plastered the closest to them in Western Michigan last week - and they made a damned fine showing of themselves at Kentucky and Boston College.
They can run the ball, and they can pass the ball for a total average of 377.2ypg. They scored 24 on Boston College, 17 on Michigan, and 36 on Kentucky. They beat Akron fresh off the victory over NCSU. They've improved, and they just came off a solid beating of Western michigan. Meanwhile, northern Illinois started strong, but they've been on the decline for a month. Wolfe hasn't been able to run for weeks, and the Chips should keep that trend rolling. I realize I just shat on the MAC, but this is the one team in the MAC this year that has consistently shown strength and improvement. They should pound NIU by 10-14.
 
redbearde said:
Central Michigan -3 (-105) 2 units

The Chips are easily the best team in the MAC. This is the team who beats all comers in the conference this year - they plastered the closest to them in Western Michigan last week - and they made a damned fine showing of themselves at Kentucky and Boston College.
They can run the ball, and they can pass the ball for a total average of 377.2ypg. They scored 24 on Boston College, 17 on Michigan, and 36 on Kentucky. They beat Akron fresh off the victory over NCSU. They've improved, and they just came off a solid beating of Western michigan. Meanwhile, northern Illinois started strong, but they've been on the decline for a month. Wolfe hasn't been able to run for weeks, and the Chips should keep that trend rolling. I realize I just shat on the MAC, but this is the one team in the MAC this year that has consistently shown strength and improvement. They should pound NIU by 10-14.
Click to expand...

Love it, I need to get on this myself before it keeps climbing
 
The Miami Hurricanes have given up. Why they are laying points to a team who plays demonstrably better at home, who has gotten better all season, and who has a better coach..........I just don't know.

Virginia +3 (-102)

Does anyone think this Miami team who doesn't bother to tackle and can't seem to figure out how to get a TD is a full TD better than UVA on a neutral field?
 
everythingthat'sgreen, Good luck to us.

Since Maryland's come from behind victory over UVA, they've been on a tear.

Boston college has been holding on for dear life, losing to NCSU and solidly to Wake forest, and playing a few cupcakes (Maine, Barfalo, Duke, VPI) inbetween. Boston may actually be better than Maryland, though I'm a big fan of Heyward-Bey and a few other Terp playmakers. Better off hanging on Timh's every word here just like you're better off with HawaiiGuy's opinion on Hawaii.

But I like the Terps to be REAL close here...certainly inside 7.
 
NC State is playing North Carolina at Smurf Village this year.

This is a huge rivalry for NCSU, and it's somewhat important to Bunting Smurf, fumble smurf, and interception smurf. DO NOT lay the chalk here. If Carolina is going to wake up and get a Div 1A win this year, it will be in this game. I haven't decided to do it yet, but if I touch this game, it'll be UNC Smurfs ML.
 
with you on UM..gl to us...I like maryland too..hoping I can get 7, but I doubt it.
 
I'm a big ol sell-out. I think at worst that game is going to be a 1-3pt loss for the terps. I didn't sell any lower in case of OT...if the turtles lose by 7, I'll eat it.

:)
 
I agree RB..kind of like the wake/FSU game this past weekend. I can't believe that line.
 
HUNTDOG said:
I agree RB..kind of like the wake/FSU game this past weekend. I can't believe that line.
Click to expand...

Exactly. That ML got up over 300 by gametime.

I couldn't believe my fucking eyes.
 
redbearde. a lot of my own thinking in your posts.
I like both those MAC ML plays.
I agree on CMU also , but they just clinched the MAC west against their biggest rival. Not a helluva lot for CMU to play for in this game - if I'm not mistaken.
Both of your UMs look good to me.

And sorry again about my screw up on you in the Matador contest thread. Thought sure I had hit 'Post Reply" but I guess not.
GL as always this week. You post good stuff.:cheers:
 
bull, it's fine bro. It got done, and I might hit you up again this week....still haven't gotten the problem sorted out.

We'll see if CMU is interested in going undefeated in conference I guess. Think they'll piss it away this weekend? I could sell off this bet...probly won't, but do you really think the chips are done for the year?
 
I've discovered a system for capping a "capper's nightmare" called the MAC Conference -- cap who you believe is the right play in every aspect of the game, then choose the opposing team!
evillol.gif
 
Oh yeah, that ol fade yourself routine.

Does it work?

Cal at Southern Cal

Perhaps Cal was looking ahead during that Arizona game, but don't think Pete Caroll didn't notice the loss and how arizona went about it. 4of their last 5 games, Cal has given up 24 points. I've not been the fan of JDB that others are or have been, and I've been consistently fading the Trojans with the other Pac 10 teams...especially when I get DD. But Cal hasn't been playing as well as they were when they put the beatdown on Tennessee. Lomgshore threw 3 picks Saturday, and that certainly accounts for the loss. But letting an anemic Arizona offense stay with you with 202 yards through the air just won't get it done at USC.

After the beaver loss, the trojans got right back into form with a 42-0 win over stanford (who cares?) and a 35-10 thumping of a pretty decent Oregon team (I care). As long as Carroll doesn't call a couple WR passes that each get picked off, USC should win at home. Oregon outgained the trojans (407-356), yet they couldn't seem to punch it in...

Seems reasonable to expect 350 yards out of the Trojan offense again. Go SC.
 
redbearde said:
The Miami Hurricanes have given up. Why they are laying points to a team who plays demonstrably better at home, who has gotten better all season, and who has a better coach..........I just don't know.

Virginia +3 (-102)

Does anyone think this Miami team who doesn't bother to tackle and can't seem to figure out how to get a TD is a full TD better than UVA on a neutral field?
Click to expand...

They're not a full TD better, but they could be a FG or more better. UVa is a very nice, young team with a good deal of talent. The problem is that they have an AWFUL coaching staff outside of DC London, who has done a very good job with the materials given this year. Groh and his retarded frat boy son have made a mockery out of the offense, grounding some of their more talented players at times (Williams, Stupar, Simpson, etc.) and pretty much remaining satisfied with running the slow-developing off-tackle run that rarely gets many yards on 3rd and anything. It's almost as if they like punting, as if it's a fun part of the game for them. :hairout:

I like my Hoos as well in this game, but I also would absolutely not be suprised to see them get shutout in this game. Miami, while in a bad spot and really struggling, has horses and really has not been scored on much this year outside of Louisville and the 2h of the GT game, where they practically fell apart and lost it for the season. UVa is not going to change on offense, and while I could see them getting points off of TOs or on a big play or two, I don't expect them to be able to move the ball so much against a fast defense. Should be an insanely boring game for the most part, and I think that whoever wins is just going to be happy that they made it out of what is sure to be a shitfest.

For me, either way, the outcome of this game will be positive. If they win, that's great, they beat Miami and finish up on a positive not in C'ville. If they lose, then that will just give us more value when they go into Bleaksburg next weekend and give those Chokies all they want :smiley_acbe:
 
redbearde said:
Oh yeah, that ol fade yourself routine.

Does it work?

Cal at Southern Cal

Perhaps Cal was looking ahead during that Arizona game, but don't think Pete Caroll didn't notice the loss and how arizona went about it. 4of their last 5 games, Cal has given up 24 points. I've not been the fan of JDB that others are or have been, and I've been consistently fading the Trojans with the other Pac 10 teams...especially when I get DD. But Cal hasn't been playing as well as they were when they put the beatdown on Tennessee. Lomgshore threw 3 picks Saturday, and that certainly accounts for the loss. But letting an anemic Arizona offense stay with you with 202 yards through the air just won't get it done at USC.

After the beaver loss, the trojans got right back into form with a 42-0 win over stanford (who cares?) and a 35-10 thumping of a pretty decent Oregon team (I care). As long as Carroll doesn't call a couple WR passes that each get picked off, USC should win at home. Oregon outgained the trojans (407-356), yet they couldn't seem to punch it in...

Seems reasonable to expect 350 yards out of the Trojan offense again. Go SC.
Click to expand...

I think you must mean Oregon, because the outcome of the game with the Vols was a beatdown, but on Cal.
 
J Galt said:
I think you must mean Oregon, because the outcome of the game with the Vols was a beatdown, but on Cal.
Click to expand...

My smartass way of saying the opposite. Or not. I'm not sure. I'm on condeine right now, so ANYTHING i type is suspect at least.
 
Thanks for your comments on the Cavs. we'll see how it goes, but I think this Miami team will have a rough day in UVA.
 
I hope you're right, I think it would be the first win over Miami in the program's history (or at least recent history) and would really energize the fan base going into the offseason. This is definitely the year to do it, as they are at home and Miami hasn't been this bad in god knows how long.

GL this weekend
 
With you on MD, redbearde. I also recommend looking at WF as a home dog.

GL this week buddy. :smiley_acbe:
 
I will probably be on that based merely on the momentum they've built over the last, lessee.....2+months, but I want more value. I expect people will beat on VPI like they did FSU last week. I will remain in morbid fascination of the continued disrespect this scrappy WF team gets.
 
SoonerBS said:
I've discovered a system for capping a "capper's nightmare" called the MAC Conference -- cap who you believe is the right play in every aspect of the game, then choose the opposing team!
evillol.gif
Click to expand...
shit, denny, you just figuring that out now??:spank:
 
redbearde-- there is no doubt in my mind that CMu is the MAC best, and they SHOULD handle NIU. All I'm saying is that this is a game they could lose because it means zero to them other than pride yada yada.
Don't know what is in the minds of these 20 year olds- I agree with your pick; I would just put it down a bit on the totem pole. Not a soonerbs navy dime bet by any means. I know you, like I do, play a lot of games so this one is very reasonable. Expect a win, but don't be shocked if they lay an egg.
gl:drink:
 
I'm never all that shocked by a given team of college kids laying an egg.

and in fact I may not play as many this weekend........just not sure yet. I'm seriously considering slowing down and aiming more at the NBA and CBB.
 
Adding
VPI & Wake Forest under 38.5 (-109) 2 units

bdk pick. bdk is fucking smart. nuff said. Course, I also like the play...
 
You know its kind of funny, you have to wonder what Coker has been looking at in practice all year down in Miami. I really thought Kirby Freeman played extremely well vs. MD. on the road and in his first start. The Canes ran a lot of bootleg stuff for him and he threw well on the run and took the underneath stuff the defense gave him. He is mobile and used good judgement on when to pull it down and run with it. All in all an excellent job and quite frankly unlucky not to win the game considering the dropped pass by wide open WR Moore in the endzone when MD's defender fell down. I think he gives Miami a dimension with his scrambling that Wright doesn't provide. Anyway, his job the rest of the year now with the Wright thumb surgery. Miami defense is still formidable imo, and did a great job stopping the Terp running game all day. Terps hit the big plays to Bey early and then basically did nothing the rest of the day on offense. Huge TOP advtg. for Miami and they ran nearly twice as many plays 73/37. MD fortunate to win but have done a good job not turning the ball over and Hollenbach has managed the games well the last couple weeks in the absense of any appreciable running game. MD special teams have been outstanding and Podlesh continues to be one of if not the best punters in CFB. The guy just continually makes great kicks and comes through at critical times. MD defense is improving gradually and we are starting to tackle better overall. They are giving up some ydg. between the 20's but have been able to make plays when it counts. They have to be able to stop the run this week, because if BC can get a balanced offense going Ryan will be very tough. MD needs to get him in obvious passing situations and then apply some pressure. I think we see MD try to go downfield more this week in the passing game and go after that BC secondary. GL to you this week.
 
Tim, thanks for the thoughts. I think Maryland is looking better and better.

BC better watch it this week....and I sure as hell wouldn't lay those points.

GL to you and your terps, bro.
 
Arkansas -16 (-102)
Nevada -20.5 (+105)
Utah St +37.5 (-108)
Oklahoma -20.5 (-106)
Ole Miss +27.5 (-105)
Oregon St (-105) 2 units
Auburn -4.5 (+118) 2 units
Oregon -13.5 (-103)
 
I'm waiting on MLs for

Northwestern
Iowa
UTEP

Juice at pinny is all leaned toward the fave, and I'm hoping to get forced into taking them before Dr Bob fucks up the lines on Thursday...

Idaho and Indiana I went ahead and got because I doubt they'll get up over 4:1.
 
I realize it's a danger to overanalyze the Sunbelt, but they all look about right to me. Florida Atlantic smells best, but North Texas has been doing better recently. Not interested in fading them this week.
 
Spreads
Week 11: 5-6, -4.31 units
total: 92-69-2, 56.4%, +52.46 units

NC State -3 (+101) 2 Units
Missouri -13.5 (-105)
Hawaii/SJSU Over 73 (-105)
Central Michigan -3 (-105) 2 units - L
Virginia +3 (-102) 2 units
Maryland +6.5 (+105) 2 units
Michigan +6.5 (-101) 4 units
Southern Cal -6 (+102) 2 units
VPI & Wake Forest under 38.5 (-109) 2 units
Arkansas -16 (-102)
Nevada -20.5 (+105)
Utah St +37.5 (-108)
Oklahoma -20.5 (-106)
Ole Miss +27.5 (-105)
Oregon St (-105) 2 units
Auburn -4.5 (+118) 2 units
Oregon -13.5 (-103)
Wisconsin -38 (-108)

ML Dogs
Week 11: 3-9, -1.91 units
Overall: 39-73, 34.8% +10.93 units

Ball St +196 - W
Miami Oh +150 - W
Indiana +390
Idaho +390
UTEP +136
 
redbearde said:
Spreads
Week 11: 5-6, -4.31 units
total: 92-69-2, 56.4%, +52.46 units

Hawaii/SJSU Over 73 (-105)
Central Michigan -3 (-105) 2 units
Virginia +3 (-102) 2 units
Maryland +6.5 (+105) 2 units
Michigan +6.5 (-101) 4 units
Southern Cal -6 (+102) 2 units
VPI & Wake Forest under 38.5 (-109) 2 units
Arkansas -16 (-102)
Nevada -20.5 (+105)
Utah St +37.5 (-108)
Oklahoma -20.5 (-106)
Ole Miss +27.5 (-105)
Oregon St (-105) 2 units
Auburn -4.5 (+118) 2 units
Oregon -13.5 (-103)
Wisconsin -38 (-108)

ML Dogs
Week 11: 3-9, -1.91 units
Overall: 39-73, 34.8% +10.93 units

Ball St +196 - W
Miami Oh +150
Indiana +390
Idaho +390
Click to expand...

Like a few of the same games and I can't really say anything about the other picks as most of them are the sides I lean to. Nice ML on Ball St last night. Toledo receiver drops a ball my grandmother could catch.. Anyhow, Good Luck this week...
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
Tim you like MD +8??
Click to expand...

Yes, I think that's a pretty good number to have on what should be a close game. MD is improving defensively, and though they have given up yardage between the 20's they are tightening up in the red zone and doing a nice job. As I said before, the key is to not let BC get the running game going early which will allow Ryan a lot more flexibility if he has the balance to rely on. MD has done well not turning the ball over and are starting to make some nice plays in the passing game. For the Terps to win though, they will need to run it much better than they have the last three games.
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
Like a few of the same games and I can't really say anything about the other picks as most of them are the sides I lean to. Nice ML on Ball St last night. Toledo receiver drops a ball my grandmother could catch.. Anyhow, Good Luck this week...
Click to expand...

Amstutz throws games. I don't bet him except against EMU this year, and he fucking tossed that one. One of my rules...NEVER bet on Toledo. It looked so good...Toledo as a dog at EMU. Alas.

Good luck to us, bro. I sell points, so you can probably get better lines than what I have.
 
Thought you guys might enjoy reading this....kind of hits on some of the things we have discussed about the Terps lately.


The Terrapins Formula
If the result is less than 12%, you should win (well, most of the time).

By Marc Carig

Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, November 16, 2006; Page E01

By every traditional statistical measure, the Maryland Terrapins shouldn't be in the hunt for a spot in the ACC championship game, shouldn't be going to a bowl game and shouldn't be the 21st-ranked team in the nation.
Maryland's run defense ranks 101st of 119 teams in the country, slightly worse than UNLV (1-9). Maryland's total offense checks in at 102, slightly better than 2-9 Colorado. And the last time the Terrapins stood on the plus side of turnover margin, Shawne Merriman and E.J. Henderson ruled the turf at Byrd Stadium.
Only quarterback Sam Hollenbach places in the top 50 in any individual offensive category, ranking 38th in the nation in passing efficiency rating, possibly making the Terrapins the world's worst fantasy football team.
Nevertheless, this reality remains: Despite keeping statistical company with some of the dregs of college football, the Terrapins (8-2, 5-1) enter the final two games of the regular season with a direct path to a date with Georgia Tech in Jacksonville, Fla.
"Sometimes some things are unexplainable," Maryland tight ends coach Ray Rychleski said. "It's been a great feeling for all of us."
But head coach Ralph Friedgen argues the unexplainable becomes quite explainable with the use of a statistic he learned during his time with the San Diego Chargers called major offensive errors.
"That's winning it for us; there's no doubt about it," Friedgen said. "It has at every level I've coached at. It's something I believe in very strongly, and it's one of the reasons we won our first year here."
The statistic is derived by adding a team's interceptions, fumbles, dropped passes, sacks and penalties during a game and dividing that by the team's total number of offensive plays. The key is to keep the result under 12 percent -- meaning that the team is committing a human error on 12 percent or less of its plays.
Maryland has been outgained each time during its five-game winning streak. But the Terrapins have stayed under the 12 percent threshold four times, winning despite a 12.7 percent rating against Clemson.
Through the years, Friedgen said the formula's accuracy is around 95 percent. In the past two years at Maryland, its accuracy has been closer to 90 percent.
"I would say it's a direct correlation," Terrapins wide receivers coach Bryan Bossard said.
Since his days as offensive coordinator at Georgia Tech, Friedgen has tinkered with various new statistics to measure errors. He came up with a similar stat while with the Yellow Jackets.
"It was kind of along the same lines as that, but we weren't smart enough to divide it into the number of plays," Friedgen said. "The year we won the national championship, we didn't make many errors either. It goes a long way to winning football games."
The stat caught the attention of former Georgia Tech basketball coach Bobby Cremins, who invited Friedgen to sit on the bench for a game in hopes of applying the concept to a turnover-prone point guard. But Friedgen didn't start using the formula in its current form until he joined the Chargers' coaching staff. He picked up the statistic from another NFL assistant coach who had used it with other teams, and he has been a believer ever since.
This season, the formula has helped the Terrapins thrive despite what Friedgen called "limitations."
Specifically, they started the season with an interception-prone quarterback, a wide receiving corps with nearly zero playing experience, a roster with one NFL-caliber player (punter Adam Podlesh) and a defense that so struggled with open-field tackling that the coach called the initial results embarrassing.
"If you don't beat yourselves, you give the opportunity to the other team to beat themselves," Friedgen said.
To that end, Friedgen virtually deleted the seven-step drop from the offensive playbook, placing an emphasis instead on getting the ball out of Hollenbach's hands faster, a move that has cut down on sacks and interceptions. Friedgen has opted for more short- and medium-range passes to replace the riskier deep ball.
In practice, coaches have placed more focus on ball security. Running backs Lance Ball and Keon Lattimore average more than five yards per carry, and the team has not lost a fumble since losing at Georgia Tech on Oct. 7.
The formula took on an even larger significance this season because of NCAA rule changes that have shortened games. Teams around the country are running fewer offensive plays compared with last season, and Friedgen said that puts more of a premium on maximizing offensive chances.
"I think that's a factor in this whole thing," Friedgen said. "There's a whole lot less plays being run right now than there used to be, probably 11 or 12 a game. When you have a turnover now, I think it's an even bigger thing for you that it was then."
While the major offensive error formula figures prominently in the Terrapins' resurgence, there are other factors, namely a stingy red zone defense that has allowed touchdowns in less than half of its chances and pure luck.
"We have been getting some breaks; I don't deny that," said Friedgen, who has watched opposing receivers drop would-be touchdown passes in two of the last three weeks. "But we were due."
And while Maryland's players are enjoying the results, they don't appear to be crunching numbers at the same rate as their coach.
"That might be a better question for the quarterback," offensive lineman Donnie Woods said. "I don't know the formula, I have no idea."
Despite his appreciation for numbers -- he once called the purchase of a new calculator one of the highlights of his semester -- Hollenbach is unsure of the particulars as well.
"It's kind of up my alley, being an engineer, plug in all the numbers and it will tell you whether you're going to win or lose," Hollenbach said. "But sometimes, it's better to be lucky than good."
In the Terrapins' case, a bit of both works, too.
 
I've added a .1 unit play on Pitt +345

Might get a good middle of Pitt scores first, and this first quarter should be raucus and bizarre.
 
Yanks26Sox6 said:
See you switched over to Auburn. Good deal. Also a good deal to get Oregon before it hit 14.
Click to expand...

Had Auburn performed up to par recently, this line might be DD. My original thought was in ML terms, and even a cursory further exam suggested my initial idea was ill-conceived.

I like a lot more dogs to cover without winning SU this week.

I'm at the hospital with my kid (x-ray for a recurring stomach problem - nothing bad) right now or I'd expand some more.
 
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