Week 11 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

[Br@ssknux]

Last week went very well, 10-3 to bring the season total to 66-59-2. Got some lucky breaks, including the biggest one, a head scratching cover by Oregon over Michigan. Head scratching because Michigan wasn't calling timeouts at the end of the game when Oregon punched the last one in, but I'm not apologizing because I declare that I am owed this and many more good breaks. I'll also say that both of Michigan's TDs were fortunate heaves on 3rd and goal from around the 10 yard line. make no mistake though, it's the rare lucky break for these writeups.

I'm starting early because I like one of the MAC games, which kicks off Wednesday. I also liked CMU getting the 13-14 points at home against BG, but I am not inclined to wager on any of the games Central Michigan is involved in , as they have exhibited very questionable turns of events, wild swings, and other forms of chicanery that I don't have the fortitude to chronicle here. Also, I'll be traveling this weekend, so I won't be around on my normal writing days of Friday and early Saturday, so we'll have to get things finished earlier this week. On to the week.

Northern Illinois -2
Minnesota -6
West Virginia +5
Ole Miss +3
Texas -21.5
North Texas +4.5
San Jose State +3
Indiana -14
Duke +3
Vandy +6
Arizona State -2.5
LSU +2.5
Penn State -12.5

Tuesday:

1. Northern Illinois -2 @Western Michigan(BOL) : NIU is not involved in either of it's "no brainer" roles, which are a road underdog or home favorite, but this makes sense to play the Huskies. NIU is almost certainly the best group of 5 defense. They rank 5th in yards per play against, 1st in 3rd down conversions against and 8th in sack rate. Western Michigan's strength is on offense, but I don't think they'll have success against Northern, as the Broncos MO is to run the ball, but nobody has really been able to run against the Huskies. They also don't convert 3rd downs, which is clearly bad news against the top defense in that metric in the country. WMU has also been weak on defense. NIU has had their issues on offense, mostly due to injuries, but they can run the ball, and WMU has had all kinds of trouble stopping it. The NIU defense will be by far the best unit on the field, and you can make a case that they've not been very fortunate as they've given up more points than their on field performance would indicate. WMU has a good record, as they've gone 5-1 since their opening two games against Ohio State and Wisconsin, but it's been a motley crew that they've played. They lost to Marshall and beat what is basically the dregs of the MAC, knocking off Akron, Ball State, Buffalo and Kent, all in very close games. They gave up 551 yards to Buffalo and 501 yards to Akron, so I think we can be sure a resourceful team like NIU will be able to score on them. Once they do, the defense should be able to take over and impose their will.

NIU had a bad start but was in control for most of the night. They gave up some yards and points but luckily the WMU defense did their part. Seems like NIU is the team that treats me the best whichever way I go with them.

 

[Ryno14]

Like em as well. Have a week!

 

[Frank Costanza]

Best of luck!

 

[Frank Costanza]

Last week went very well, 10-3 to bring the season total to 66-59-2. Got some lucky breaks, including the biggest one, a head scratching cover by Oregon over Michigan. Head scratching because Michigan wasn't calling timeouts at the end of the game when Oregon punched the last one in, but I'm not apologizing because I declare that I am owed this and many more good breaks. I'll also say that both of Michigan's TDs were fortunate heaves on 3rd and goal from around the 10 yard line. make no mistake though, it's the rare lucky break for these writeups.

I'm starting early because I like one of the MAC games, which kicks off Wednesday. I also liked CMU getting the 13-14 points at home against BG, but I am not inclined to wager on any of the games Central Michigan is involved in , as they have exhibited very questionable turns of events, wild swings, and other forms of chicanery that I don't have the fortitude to chronicle here. Also, I'll be traveling this weekend, so I won't be around on my normal writing days of Friday and early Saturday, so we'll have to get things finished earlier this week. On to the week.

Tuesday:

1. Northern Illinois -2 @Western Michigan(BOL) : NIU is not involved in either of it's "no brainer" roles, which are a road underdog or home favorite, but this makes sense to play the Huskies. NIU is almost certainly the best group of 5 defense. They rank 5th in yards per play against, 1st in 3rd down conversions against and 8th in sack rate. Western Michigan's strength is on offense, but I don't think they'll have success against Northern, as the Broncos MO is to run the ball, but nobody has really been able to run against the Huskies. They also don't convert 3rd downs, which is clearly bad news against the top defense in that metric in the country. WMU has also been weak on defense. NIU has had their issues on offense, mostly due to injuries, but they can run the ball, and WMU has had all kinds of trouble stopping it. The NIU defense will be by far the best unit on the field, and you can make a case that they've not been very fortunate as they've given up more points than their on field performance would indicate. WMU has a good record, as they've gone 5-1 since their opening two games against Ohio State and Wisconsin, but it's been a motley crew that they've played. They lost to Marshall and beat what is basically the dregs of the MAC, knocking off Akron, Ball State, Buffalo and Kent, all in very close games. They gave up 551 yards to Buffalo and 501 yards to Akron, so I think we can be sure a resourceful team like NIU will be able to score on them. Once they do, the defense should be able to take over and impose their will.

Well done, nice start.

 

[Br@ssknux]

2. Minnesota -6 @Rutgers (BOL) : There's a pattern when betting Rutgers games in the Big Ten, and one part of it is to not miss a chance to fade them as a home dog. They are 1-8 in that role in their last nine, and 2-11-1 overall as a home dog in Greg Schiano's second stint there. Usually, these scenarios happened against the three bullies of the former Big ten East(Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State, so Minnesota isn't actually the quintessential team to lay the points with, but I like the Gophers in this spot. I watched them closely last week, and they are really good in coverage on defense. They gave up some plays to Bryant and Franklin for Illinois, but everyone usually does, and they held Luke Altmyer to a weak output overall. They should have success against Kaliakmanis, and I'd expect a couple picks. They struggle a bit against the run, but Kyle Monaghai is banged up for Rutgers, and Minnesota should be prepared to stack the box due to their prowess in coverage. On the other side of the ball, the Rutgers defense has been pretty terrible all year, and the Minnesota offense has been improving throughout the year. QWB Max Brosmer isn't explosive but he doesn't make mistakes and has a playmaker in Daniel Jackson outside. The major edge for the Gophers however will be Darius Taylor. Taylor is one of the most underrated backs in the country, and if you watch him you see why. He's extremely cagey and crafty, always falls forward and seems to get 6 or 7 yards even if nothing appears to be there. He's 8th in the country in yards after contact and catches everything out of the backfield. Rutgers has been terrible against the run, which I'd peg as the biggest reason for their swan dive, ranking 117th in yards per rush attempt against. We might see a last gasp effort from Rutgers here off a bye week to salvage a bowl, but Minnesota is also on a roll with a lot to play for and the matchups clearly favor the Gophers. Throw in Rutgers terrible history as a home dog and I'm laying the points here.

A couple unexpected things happened here: The Greek pop gun had a nice game against a very reliable defense and Rutgers’ horrific run defense somehow held Darius Taylor to 28 rushing yards. I didn’t get a chance to watch much of this one but I’ll be interested to get into that box score. Knights now 2-8 as a home dog. Just have to tip your cap on that one.

 

[Br@ssknux]

3. West Virginia +5 @Cincinnati (BOL) : The Mountaineers have had all kinds of trouble at home, but they've been very resourceful on the road over the past couple of years, especially as a dog. They are 2-1 on the road this year and the one loss was a heartbreaking loss at Pitt in which they coughed up a double digit lead late. Cincinnati is 5-3 and they've had a nice year, but they've been very fortunate, especially on defense. They've only given up 21 points a game, which is good, but they're 91st in yards per play, which indicated they've used a of of smoke and mirrors to get things done on that side of the ball. They haven't been good in any area other than on 4th down, which has saved them several times, but tends to be very random with a lot of variance. West Virginia's offense will be able to move the ball on them both on the ground and through the air, regardless of which QB plays for WV. Starter Garrett Greene was out last week but Nicco Marchiol came in and played very well in their win at Arizona. He completed 18/22 and threw 2 TDs without a pick, so they don't lose much with him, and this Bearcats D is not much better, if at all than the Arizona unit. Defensively, West Virginia is good against the run, but terrible against the pass. Sorsby is a good QB for Cincy, but they are more of a running offense and they've not been explosive through the air, leaning more on ball control drives. I think it's a pretty good matchup for West Virginia who still sees a path to bowl eligibility while Cincinnati has it clinched. The teams are extremely evenly matched, so I'll take the decent amount of points with the team that has been very good lately in the road dog role.

The Mountaineers can’t cover anyone, but this wasn’t a terrible matchup for them because Sorsby doesn’t really have a lot of downfield threats to really tear them up. WV remains a very solid road squad. Some teams just gel a little better on the road and the ‘eers appear to be one of them.

 

[Br@ssknux]

4. @Ole Miss +3 v Georgia: (BOL) I've been against Georgia quite a few times this year, and most of the time, it's worked out (Auburn, Alabama, Florida) and once it didn't (Texas). I show a pretty strong edge for Ole Miss in this one, but instead of laying points like I had to when they played (and hammered) Texas, I'm getting points with the home team here. Ole Miss obviously has an explosive offense and that was on display last week when the Rebs went to Arkansas and met zero resistance from the Hogs, leading to a 63-whatever blowout. Jaxson Dart had over 500 yards passing and that was without their top offensive threat Tre Harris at WR, who is appears will be available this week. WR Jordan Watkins picked up the slack last week, catching 5 TDs and torching the Hogs for 254 yards receiving. It was a departure for the Rebs as they had not been all that explosive lately in conference, but it all returned with a vengeance last week. The major issue for Georgia this week, however, will be dealing with that ole Miss defense. They rank in the top 10 in virtually every category, including ranking #1 against the run. In short you cannot run on Ole Miss. I doubt that changes against Georgia, who hasn't really run it effectively all year. RBs Etienne and Nate Frazier barely topped 100 yards combined on 26 carries last week against Florida and rank 74th in yards per rush for the year. There is no evidence to suggest they'll be able to run it, so the bluk of the pressure will fall on Carson beck, who frankly has been terrible the past few weeks. He threw 3 picks last week against Florida, and that's the third time he's done that this year. Ole Miss is the best defense he's faced and all the weight will be on his shoulders if they can't run it, which they almost certainly will not be able to do. Georgia has also struggled al year on 3rd down(88th), and if they find themselves on 3rd and 8 consistently, that isn't going to change. While the Ole Miss defense will have the edge over the Dawgs, the offense should be able to score with the talent they have, regardless of how good Georgia is. I just feel that beck has proven he will have a hard time leading the team here, and we have to question how Beck can beat be effective when he is so prone to turnovers and he'll be facing the #2 defense in sacking he QB. I like the home dog here.

Nailed this one. Ole Miss is a threat because of that defense.

 

[Br@ssknux]

5. @Texas -21.5 v Florida (BetRivers): Florida won us money last week, but they almost blew the cover because their offense was so horrific after DJ Lagway went out. Tough spot for the Gators here this week as they approach the embark on the toughest end of a schedule in college football history. They played at Tennessee, Kentucky and Georgia so far, and now have @Texas, LSU and Ole Miss coming up. Their defense is banged up, both on the line and especially in the secondary, and although Billy Napier has made noise that Lagway might play, he was carted off the field with what looked like a torn hammy. There's no way he'll be able to play a week later. That means they'll be stuck with third stringer Aidan Warner, who was disgusting to watch in more ways than one. They have no confidence in him, so he only throws quick slants or screens, and he can't even do that without every Florida fan holding the breath hoping to avoid the worst. In addition to that, the kid was wearing bicycle shorts and white panty hose on the football field. There is no way a teammate can look at him and be inspired to play any form a physical football. Defensively, Texas ranks #1 against the pass, and Florda's top deep threat (if they even trusted this kid to throw deep) Eugene Wilson was ruled out for the year this week, so they won't have him. This is just a terrible spot for Florida, who find themselves in a Georgia /LSU sandwich staring at a matchup in which they have disadvantages all over the field while suiting up a QB who has no prayer of being effective throwing the ball and will appear to be scared for his life. Florida has been good, and I think they've proven themselves lately, but this looks like a game where they'll try to get everyone through the game as healthy as they can and live to fight another day when they have their QB back.

This one was over from jump street. That third string walk on is not a serious football player and Florida has no chance to compete in any game if he’s in there. The defense from September also showed up for Florida. They desperately need Lagway back.

 

[Br@ssknux]

6. @North Texas +4.5 (BR) : I think this line is telling us that Bryson Daily might not be trending well to play this week. If that's the case, it's worth much more than the usual QB injury because when he's in there, he pretty much IS the Army offense. A large chunk of the Army playbook is just straight shotgun runs for Daily, and he's great at it. When they had to go to Dewayne Coleman at QB when Daily was out last week, things did not go well. For the year, Coleman averages almost 3ypc less than Daily does, and he is not a skilled thrower. Against a putrid Air Force defense last week, the Coleman led Army offense barely cracked 200 yards. Defensively, the Knights have been good, but as has been repeated ad nauseum, they haven't played any offenses that are in the same stratosphere with North Texas. I would guess the best offense Army has played was ECU, and I was tuned in to that game late sweating out a cover, and Army could not cover ECU's receivers. The Pirates piled up 180 yards in the 4th quarter alone. North Texas has the 5th ranked offense in the country in yards per play and is 17th in yards per pass attempt despite having the 2nd most pass attempts in the country. Chandler Rogers has had a great year, and I suspect he'll continue this week. North Texas has a terrible defense, but this will be a much different offense without Daily back there for Army. The Mean Green are coming off the bye, so they've had extra time to work on the Army offense, which appears to have lost it's teeth. I think Army is susceptible to a loss here, so I'll take the 4.5.

*****Looks like Daily is going to play. I still like the Mean Green at the number it’s settling at, which seems to be 6.

Holy shit was Chandler Morris terrible in this game. Wow. 2 horrific picks in the end zone that an 8th grader wouldn’t throw and plus stopped on downs at the two. I needed ONE TD from the 5th ranked yards per play offense in the country and couldn’t get it. Where was Katin Houser and the ECU garbage time offense when I needed it?

 

[B.A.R.]

4. @Ole Miss +3 v Georgia: (BOL) I've been against Georgia quite a few times this year, and most of the time, it's worked out (Auburn, Alabama, Florida) and once it didn't (Texas). I show a pretty strong edge for Ole Miss in this one, but instead of laying points like I had to when they played (and hammered) Texas, I'm getting points with the home team here. Ole Miss obviously has an explosive offense and that was on display last week when the Rebs went to Arkansas and met zero resistance from the Hogs, leading to a 63-whatever blowout. Jaxson Dart had over 500 yards passing and that was without their top offensive threat Tre Harris at WR, who is appears will be available this week. WR Jordan Watkins picked up the slack last week, catching 5 TDs and torching the Hogs for 254 yards receiving. It was a departure for the Rebs as they had not been all that explosive lately in conference, but it all returned with a vengeance last week. The major issue for Georgia this week, however, will be dealing with that ole Miss defense. They rank in the top 10 in virtually every category, including ranking #1 against the run. In short you cannot run on Ole Miss. I doubt that changes against Georgia, who hasn't really run it effectively all year. RBs Etienne and Nate Frazier barely topped 100 yards combined on 26 carries last week against Florida and rank 74th in yards per rush for the year. There is no evidence to suggest they'll be able to run it, so the bluk of the pressure will fall on Carson beck, who frankly has been terrible the past few weeks. He threw 3 picks last week against Florida, and that's the third time he's done that this year. Ole Miss is the best defense he's faced and all the weight will be on his shoulders if they can't run it, which they almost certainly will not be able to do. Georgia has also struggled al year on 3rd down(88th), and if they find themselves on 3rd and 8 consistently, that isn't going to change. While the Ole Miss defense will have the edge over the Dawgs, the offense should be able to score with the talent they have, regardless of how good Georgia is. I just feel that beck has proven he will have a hard time leading the team here, and we have to question how Beck can beat be effective when he is so prone to turnovers and he'll be facing the #2 defense in sacking he QB. I like the home dog here.

Great write-up

 

[Br@ssknux]

7. San Jose State +3 @Oregon State (BOL) : This Oregon State defense has been atrocious all year, ranking 122nd in yards per play and dead last in the country in sack rate. That's important in this game because SJSU throws the ball almost every play, more often than anyone else in he country. Whoever is playing QB for SJSU(probably Eget) will have plenty of time to get the ball to Nick Nash, who has 80 catches and 12 TDs already. Oregon State apparently has also decided to bench Gevani Mc Coy, and the SJSU defense is one that you want to have yourself buttoned up against. Oregon State wants to run it, but the Spartans are ranked 22nd in the country against the run. San Jose State took Washington State to the brink in Pullman early this year, and I think it's safe to say that the Beavs are not at the level of the Cougs this year. My numbers have SJSU as the rightful favorite in this one so I'll certainly take the points.

Got some turnover luck in this one, but as expected Oregon State couldn’t stop a nosebleed. This game probably should have been closer to 38-31, but whatever. Nick Nash better get some Belitnikoff consideration.

 

[Frank Costanza]

4. @Ole Miss +3 v Georgia: (BOL) I've been against Georgia quite a few times this year, and most of the time, it's worked out (Auburn, Alabama, Florida) and once it didn't (Texas). I show a pretty strong edge for Ole Miss in this one, but instead of laying points like I had to when they played (and hammered) Texas, I'm getting points with the home team here. Ole Miss obviously has an explosive offense and that was on display last week when the Rebs went to Arkansas and met zero resistance from the Hogs, leading to a 63-whatever blowout. Jaxson Dart had over 500 yards passing and that was without their top offensive threat Tre Harris at WR, who is appears will be available this week. WR Jordan Watkins picked up the slack last week, catching 5 TDs and torching the Hogs for 254 yards receiving. It was a departure for the Rebs as they had not been all that explosive lately in conference, but it all returned with a vengeance last week. The major issue for Georgia this week, however, will be dealing with that ole Miss defense. They rank in the top 10 in virtually every category, including ranking #1 against the run. In short you cannot run on Ole Miss. I doubt that changes against Georgia, who hasn't really run it effectively all year. RBs Etienne and Nate Frazier barely topped 100 yards combined on 26 carries last week against Florida and rank 74th in yards per rush for the year. There is no evidence to suggest they'll be able to run it, so the bluk of the pressure will fall on Carson beck, who frankly has been terrible the past few weeks. He threw 3 picks last week against Florida, and that's the third time he's done that this year. Ole Miss is the best defense he's faced and all the weight will be on his shoulders if they can't run it, which they almost certainly will not be able to do. Georgia has also struggled al year on 3rd down(88th), and if they find themselves on 3rd and 8 consistently, that isn't going to change. While the Ole Miss defense will have the edge over the Dawgs, the offense should be able to score with the talent they have, regardless of how good Georgia is. I just feel that beck has proven he will have a hard time leading the team here, and we have to question how Beck can beat be effective when he is so prone to turnovers and he'll be facing the #2 defense in sacking he QB. I like the home dog here.

This all aligns but I will never bet on Kiffin in big games for the same reason I never bet on Leach. Just too prone to head-scratching shit when you need it least.

 

[TahoeLegend]

Thanks for posting, Brass. Keep up the good work

Joel Klatt was 5-0 last week, is 60% for the year. His picks this week--Bama -2x, Georgia -2x, Indiana -13x, texas Tech +3x, BYU -3x

 

[Frank Costanza]

Thanks for posting, Brass. Keep up the good work

Joel Klatt was 5-0 last week, is 60% for the year. His picks this week--Bama -2x, Georgia -2x, Indiana -13x, texas Tech +3x, BYU -3x

Great to see you Tahoe! Really miss your media summary.

Yeah, posted in the TV thread above re Klatt and his picks. He's been on fire.

 

[TahoeLegend]

Great to see you Tahoe! Really miss your media summary.

Yeah, posted in the TV thread above re Klatt and his picks. He's been on fire.

Quit doing it because it took so much time and it was hard to find out which picks Stanford Steve was counting as his official picks

This guy does a far better job than I ever did and keeps better records:

Cole's Gameday Blog

Tracking college football picks and predictions for YOU

gamedaycole.com

What are you thinking on the Horns/Gators tomorrow

 

[Br@ssknux]

This all aligns but I will never bet on Kiffin in big games for the same reason I never bet on Leach. Just too prone to head-scratching shit when you need it least.

Frank, It's my major fear, but there's a lot to like in the matchups. Just hoping that he has a breakthrough. I'm also skeptical of Georgia based on their year long metrics.

 

[Br@ssknux]

8. @ Indiana -14(-115) v Michigan (BOL) : It's hard to believe we would ever be here, with Indiana installed as a 14 point favorite over Michigan, but believe it, because it is every bit a legitimate reality. Obviously, Indiana is 8-0 and has run absolute roughshod over everyone they've played. Michigan is not good, coming into this game at 5-4. People were interested as to how IU would respond to being down early, and they passed that test with flying colors last week. They spotted Michigan State a 10-0 lead last week in East Lansing only to reel off 47 straight points culminating in a 47-10 beatdown. Defensively, the Hoosiers held Michigan State to 15 total yards in the second half and under 200 yards for the game. Kurtis Rourke looked just as good last week as he's looked all year, which is to say, very good. &4% completions, almost 11 yards per attempt and a 19/3 ratio. Is that good. They'll be sky high for this game as they never are in a position to beat Michigan, and there's never been a more vulnerable Michigan team and coaching staff than this one. The Wolverines can't throw the ball, and Iu's defense is 3rd against the run. Despite Michigan's defense being very solid with several future pros, they are 102nd on 3rd down and Indiana is thriving in every category and is sitting at 9th in 3rd down conversions on offense, so Michigan is likely to struggle to get them off the field. Indiana has everything to play for, and has major advantages all over the field while Michigan is playing only as a spoiler. The line has a premium attached to it, but there's no reason not to play IU here and continue to until they prove otherwise.

Indiana was looking great at halftime but they just kind of lost their mojo in the second half. Give credit to the Michigan defense who covered well, and also IU was nowhere near as crisp offensively. Rourke had his first cracks in the armor, with a couple bad throws including a terrible INT. This was a bit of a force.

 

[B.A.R.]

Thanks for posting, Brass. Keep up the good work

Joel Klatt was 5-0 last week, is 60% for the year. His picks this week--Bama -2x, Georgia -2x, Indiana -13x, texas Tech +3x, BYU -3x

Thanks Tahoe.

Guys miss the thread, thanks for posting a few nuggets.

 

[B.A.R.]

8. @ Indiana -14(-115) v Michigan (BOL) : It's hard to believe we would ever be here, with Indiana installed as a 14 point favorite over Michigan, but believe it, because it is every bit a legitimate reality. Obviously, Indiana is 8-0 and has run absolute roughshod over everyone they've played. Michigan is not good, coming into this game at 5-4. People were interested as to how IU would respond to being down early, and they passed that test with flying colors last week. They spotted Michigan State a 10-0 lead last week in East Lansing only to reel off 47 straight points culminating in a 47-10 beatdown. Defensively, the Hoosiers held Michigan State to 15 total yards in the second half and under 200 yards for the game. Kurtis Rourke looked just as good last week as he's looked all year, which is to say, very good. &4% completions, almost 11 yards per attempt and a 19/3 ratio. Is that good. They'll be sky high for this game as they never are in a position to beat Michigan, and there's never been a more vulnerable Michigan team and coaching staff than this one. The Wolverines can't throw the ball, and Iu's defense is 3rd against the run. Despite Michigan's defense being very solid with several future pros, they are 102nd on 3rd down and Indiana is thriving in every category and is sitting at 9th in 3rd down conversions on offense, so Michigan is likely to struggle to get them off the field. Indiana has everything to play for, and has major advantages all over the field while Michigan is playing only as a spoiler. The line has a premium attached to it, but there's no reason not to play IU here and continue to until they prove otherwise.

Absolutely.

I have no rebuttal to play Michigan here.

Now, the passing offense is a bit better now with an improved QB that's valuing the ball.

Still, the defense has 4+ NFL day1 or day 2 guys and have been a disappointment.

No Will J and Jyaire is maybe playing. I'd assume still hobbled.

I know @HUNT liked Mich TT under -- so that really jives with a cover. 31-17 or 34-17 been in my head all week as the minimum.

GL brass

 

[Frank Costanza]

Quit doing it because it took so much time and it was hard to find out which picks Stanford Steve was counting as his official picks

This guy does a far better job than I ever did and keeps better records:

Cole's Gameday Blog

Tracking college football picks and predictions for YOU

gamedaycole.com

What are you thinking on the Horns/Gators tomorrow

I'd probably lay the 21.5 gun to my head but I'm staying away as I really don't know what is going on with Ewers. Everything I hear is that he's (physically) healthy but I question more of what's going on between his ears. I can't imagine Lagway playing and, with that, not sure how Florida scores very much. Feels like a 33 - 10 type game.

GL on your plays today and thanks for the link.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Absolutely.

I have no rebuttal to play Michigan here.

Now, the passing offense is a bit better now with an improved QB that's valuing the ball.

Still, the defense has 4+ NFL day1 or day 2 guys and have been a disappointment.

No Will J and Jyaire is maybe playing. I'd assume still hobbled.

I know @HUNT liked Mich TT under -- so that really jives with a cover. 31-17 or 34-17 been in my head all week as the minimum.

GL brass

I saw in a recent mock draft that Michigan has 3 guys in the top 10-12 picks, with Johnson coming in later in the first round to make a 4th! I think it underscores just how bad this staff has been this year.

 

[Br@ssknux]

9. Duke +3 @ NC State (BOL) : NC State has had a couple nice games lately to get themselves to 5-4, winning at Cal and at home last week against Stanford. Duke comes in having fallen to earth a bit after a great start. They were in position to knock off Miami last week deep into the 3rd quarter until the bottom fell out. I see this game as a couple of evenly matched teams, but I think there's quite a bit of noise in NC State's numbers. When they've played solid teams or good defenses, they haven't been good. All of their yards vs Clemson were in garbage time. They were completely shut down against good defenses in Tennessee and Northern Illinois. The only game that I can point to that they competed well with a good team was two weeks ago against Cal, but they were outgained and Cal fell victim to their overwhelming urge to blow games as a home favorite. Duke is a team who's offensive output is better than their numbers, and they have had several weapons emerge. Star Thomas has been effective running the ball, and Maalik Murphy has two receivers in Panchol and Jordan Moore who've been effective in recent weeks. All should have success against this NC State defense who has been shaky at best. Duke's defense has been solid all year especially against the pass which matches up with NC State's relative strength on offense. I'm generally a fan of Kevin Concepcion for the Wolfpack, but he's only averaged a little over 8 yards per reception. It's a pretty close matchup, but I like Duke's resourcefulness and I think they are due for a bounceback performance, so I'll take the points in what looks to be a pretty close game.

Duke defense was great in the red zone, forcing FGs and Murphy was good enough. This was just a mostly solid efficient team playing a mostly inefficient team. Offense not plentiful.

 

[Br@ssknux]

10. @Vanderbilt v South Carolina(BOL) : I came into this handicap wanting and expecting to play South Carolina at a small number on the road. First, the Gamecocks have been really good on the road, having blown out Kentucky and Oklahoma from jump street and playing Alabama to the death in a game they probably should have won. Also, Vandy is now bowl eligible and Diego Pavia is still hobbled, so you can make a case for a less than inspired effort from Vandy. But now the line has moved to 6, and there still remains no evidence that anyone should fade Vandy as a dog as they managed to win by 10 on the road as a 7 point dog last week despite not even playing well on offense. When you line these teams up, it's obvious that the Gamecocks have a big edge against Vandy's offense, but not necessarily on third down or in the pass game if Pavis can get quick throws off. Vandy enjoys some of the same advantages against South Carolina's offense Vandy has been competitive against the run and also pressures the QB, which has been a major problem for South Carolina. Had this line stayed around 3-3.5 I probably would have stayed away due to the Vandy motivation situation, but at 6, and with South Carolina coming off heir best effort of the year that is probably inflating this line, I'll take the home dog that never fails to cover and hope Pavia can hobble around enough to lead a couple scoring drives.

Should have stuck with my original play here. Stupid line movement foiled me again, making my brain shut down. South Carolina has some strong mojo on the road. They are just burying teams. Silver lining: I cashed my season win total over bet on the Gamecocks with this one!

 

[Br@ssknux]

11. @Arizona State -2.5(-120) v UCF (BOL) : Cam Skattebo is out for Arizona State but I still like this play for the Sun Devils. I think this line is where it is due to Skattebo's status, but also because of how good UCF looked last week at home against a dead Arizona team. They piled up 600+ yards (which their offense is capable of when humming and the other team is reeling) and new QB Dylan Rizk looked fantastic in his first shot as the man in charge. However, we have to remember what this team has been most of this year. They've been anything but resourceful and consistent, and ASU has actually been that. Defensively they have been good in all areas, 23rd against the run, 25th against the pass and on offense really good on third down. Leavitt is back and I trust Dillngham to have a good plan at home against a defense that has been torched on many occasions this year. Maybe Rizk is a superstar, but I'll take my chances that he and the UCF offense takes a strp back out west against a good defense.

Got really lucky here with a 91 yard INT return TD and a blocked punt TD for the SunDevils. Now, the main reason I bet this was because UCF merely had to lose on the road to cash it, and they found a way to lose, but I do recognize it was a lucky game. I do not recommend betting on UCF and expecting them to make any winning plays.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Probably will have at least a couple more a bit later.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Daily looks to be in for Army. I’d stay with UNT at the new number, which looks to be 6 or so

 

[2daBank]

9. Duke +3 @ NC State (BOL) : NC State has had a couple nice games lately to get themselves to 5-4, winning at Cal and at home last week against Stanford. Duke comes in having fallen to earth a bit after a great start. They were in position to knock off Miami last week deep into the 3rd quarter until the bottom fell out. I see this game as a couple of evenly matched teams, but I think there's quite a bit of noise in NC State's numbers. When they've played solid teams or good defenses, they haven't been good. All of their yards vs Clemson were in garbage time. They were completely shut down against good defenses in Tennessee and Northern Illinois. The only game that I can point to that they competed well with a good team was two weeks ago against Cal, but they were outgained and Cal fell victim to their overwhelming urge to blow games as a home favorite. Duke is a team who's offensive output is better than their numbers, and they have had several weapons emerge. Star Thomas has been effective running the ball, and Maalik Murphy has two receivers in Panchol and Jordan Moore who've been effective in recent weeks. All should have success against this NC State defense who has been shaky at best. Duke's defense has been solid all year especially against the pass which matches up with NC State's relative strength on offense. I'm generally a fan of Kevin Concepcion for the Wolfpack, but he's only averaged a little over 8 yards per reception. It's a pretty close matchup, but I like Duke's resourcefulness and I think they are due for a bounceback performance, so I'll take the points in what looks to be a pretty close game.

Murphy scares me, sometimes I dunno how the hell he a qb, others he is ok but his inaccuracy is def the reason Duke so bad on 3rd downs. Overall tho I don’t think it even questionable duke a better team than ncst. Seems to me the more Ncst has tried to figure out offense the worse the defense has slid, used to be they were at least solid on that side the ball but now it duke under manny Diaz defense I trust way more here. Agree star Thomas should have success on ground and I think duke can hit some big plays which really a must w Murphy inconsistency making it tough to drive the field. A few big plays thrown in with the Duke d getting pressure that should cause a couple turnovers from a ncst team who turns it over almost 2x a game outta be enough, better team catching 3 imo.,

 

[2daBank]

4. @Ole Miss +3 v Georgia: (BOL) I've been against Georgia quite a few times this year, and most of the time, it's worked out (Auburn, Alabama, Florida) and once it didn't (Texas). I show a pretty strong edge for Ole Miss in this one, but instead of laying points like I had to when they played (and hammered) Texas, I'm getting points with the home team here. Ole Miss obviously has an explosive offense and that was on display last week when the Rebs went to Arkansas and met zero resistance from the Hogs, leading to a 63-whatever blowout. Jaxson Dart had over 500 yards passing and that was without their top offensive threat Tre Harris at WR, who is appears will be available this week. WR Jordan Watkins picked up the slack last week, catching 5 TDs and torching the Hogs for 254 yards receiving. It was a departure for the Rebs as they had not been all that explosive lately in conference, but it all returned with a vengeance last week. The major issue for Georgia this week, however, will be dealing with that ole Miss defense. They rank in the top 10 in virtually every category, including ranking #1 against the run. In short you cannot run on Ole Miss. I doubt that changes against Georgia, who hasn't really run it effectively all year. RBs Etienne and Nate Frazier barely topped 100 yards combined on 26 carries last week against Florida and rank 74th in yards per rush for the year. There is no evidence to suggest they'll be able to run it, so the bluk of the pressure will fall on Carson beck, who frankly has been terrible the past few weeks. He threw 3 picks last week against Florida, and that's the third time he's done that this year. Ole Miss is the best defense he's faced and all the weight will be on his shoulders if they can't run it, which they almost certainly will not be able to do. Georgia has also struggled al year on 3rd down(88th), and if they find themselves on 3rd and 8 consistently, that isn't going to change. While the Ole Miss defense will have the edge over the Dawgs, the offense should be able to score with the talent they have, regardless of how good Georgia is. I just feel that beck has proven he will have a hard time leading the team here, and we have to question how Beck can beat be effective when he is so prone to turnovers and he'll be facing the #2 defense in sacking he QB. I like the home dog here.

I don’t disagree with anything you saying but I can’t help but think this feel a whole lot like osu/pen st felt last week, nothing really mattered to me there far as matchups or stats cause I just know Day beats everyone in big10 now that Harbaugh gone and peanut head loses those games. Call me crazy but lane kiffen kinda feels like the James Franklin of the sec, his teams always look great, you wanna believe but when they run up against the top dawgs (pun intended) he doesn’t get the job done. Kinda like Day, Kirby smart has that one team (bama) he doesn’t beat but outside of that team he rarely loses. While nothing you said wrong I kinda expect Uga will run the ball today, they have the interior line to do so and I really dunno why they so often put the game on Bect cause he ain’t that dude and he doesn’t really have the weapons with Lad and bowers in the nfl. I just expect Lane to blow it and Kirby to come up with a plan to win. Maybe the under makes sense cause I don’t exactly trust Dart or his coach up against a d like this.

 

[M.W.]

8. @ Indiana -14(-115) v Michigan (BOL) : It's hard to believe we would ever be here, with Indiana installed as a 14 point favorite over Michigan, but believe it, because it is every bit a legitimate reality. Obviously, Indiana is 8-0 and has run absolute roughshod over everyone they've played. Michigan is not good, coming into this game at 5-4. People were interested as to how IU would respond to being down early, and they passed that test with flying colors last week. They spotted Michigan State a 10-0 lead last week in East Lansing only to reel off 47 straight points culminating in a 47-10 beatdown. Defensively, the Hoosiers held Michigan State to 15 total yards in the second half and under 200 yards for the game. Kurtis Rourke looked just as good last week as he's looked all year, which is to say, very good. &4% completions, almost 11 yards per attempt and a 19/3 ratio. Is that good. They'll be sky high for this game as they never are in a position to beat Michigan, and there's never been a more vulnerable Michigan team and coaching staff than this one. The Wolverines can't throw the ball, and Iu's defense is 3rd against the run. Despite Michigan's defense being very solid with several future pros, they are 102nd on 3rd down and Indiana is thriving in every category and is sitting at 9th in 3rd down conversions on offense, so Michigan is likely to struggle to get them off the field. Indiana has everything to play for, and has major advantages all over the field while Michigan is playing only as a spoiler. The line has a premium attached to it, but there's no reason not to play IU here and continue to until they prove otherwise.

Nit to pick: IU is 9-0.

 

[M.W.]

10. @Vanderbilt v South Carolina(BOL) : I came into this handicap wanting and expecting to play South Carolina at a small number on the road. First, the Gamecocks have been really good on the road, having blown out Kentucky and Oklahoma from jump street and playing Alabama to the death in a game they probably should have won. Also, Vandy is now bowl eligible and Diego Pavia is still hobbled, so you can make a case for a less than inspired effort from Vandy. But now the line has moved to 6, and there still remains no evidence that anyone should fade Vandy as a dog as they managed to win by 10 on the road as a 7 point dog last week despite not even playing well on offense. When you line these teams up, it's obvious that the Gamecocks have a big edge against Vandy's offense, but not necessarily on third down or in the pass game if Pavis can get quick throws off. Vandy enjoys some of the same advantages against South Carolina's offense Vandy has been competitive against the run and also pressures the QB, which has been a major problem for South Carolina. Had this line stayed around 3-3.5 I probably would have stayed away due to the Vandy motivation situation, but at 6, and with South Carolina coming off heir best effort of the year that is probably inflating this line, I'll take the home dog that never fails to cover and hope Pavia can hobble around enough to lead a couple scoring drives.

Some of USC’s nice results may have a lot to do with the opponent’s state of mind. UK was clearly looking ahead to the UGA game, which they almost won. And there’s a new phenomenon this year: the Vandy hangover. Aside from Ball State, which covered easily as a big homecoming dog against Vandy (and thus had a very different experience), Vandy’s opponents have been awful the next game, 0-5 ATS by an average of more than 20 points. South Carolina’s near upset of Alabama was the game after Bama’s loss to Vandy.

This week’s hangover victim should be Texas, but how can you bet on that third-string QB?

 

[Br@ssknux]

Some of USC’s nice results may have a lot to do with the opponent’s state of mind. UK was clearly looking ahead to the UGA game, which they almost won. And there’s a new phenomenon this year: the Vandy hangover. Aside from Ball State, which covered easily as a big homecoming dog against Vandy (and thus had a very different experience), Vandy’s opponents have been awful the next game, 0-5 ATS by an average of more than 20 points. South Carolina’s near upset of Alabama was the game after Bama’s loss to Vandy.

This week’s hangover victim should be Texas, but how can you bet on that third-string QB?

Watching that kid last week is far and away the biggest reason for that play. I mean, just look at him! Good points though and great find on the lingering Vandy effects. Thanks as always! Could not pull the trigger on VT with the injury situation for the Hokies and I've never been a big fan of them anyway.

 

[Br@ssknux]

12. @LSU +2.5 v Alabama: (BR) I'm just not going to fade LSU as a home dog here. Alabama has good numbers, and I'm a DeBoer fan but they've already lost on the road to Vanderbilt and a Tennessee team that couldn't previously move the ball, so I don't know why we would think they'll be able to pull this off. Worse pass offenses have shredded this Alabama pass defense(despite their pretty good numbers). Even La Norris Sellers was completing 35 yard passes in crucial situations in Tuscaloosa, so I think Nussmeier and those receivers will have success in this one. Defensively, LSU will have to find an answer for Milroe's ability to escape the pocket, but I think in this moment, in an elimination game under the lights, I would rather take the points with an LSU team that at 5-1 ATS over the past few years as a home dog is one of the most consistent teams in the country in that role.

My fears came through here. Milroe made LSU helpless, and that defense is never going to be the type of defense that will win a game for you. If Nussmeier is going to play like that, they have zero chance in a game like this one. I am really curious as to what happened to Nussmeier’s eyesight at halftime of the A&M game.

 

[Br@ssknux]

13. @Penn State -12.5 v Washington(BOL) : I was on the Huskies last week at home, and was somewhat fortunate that USC did what USC usually does and pulled a "road Washington" to benefit the Huskies by missing field goals and being stopped on downs in the red zone in crucial situations. Now Washington goes back to being "road Washington" this week and we can expect more of the same from the Huskies and they embark on yet another grueling cross country trip. This time it will be under the lights in a white out at Penn State. I'm never a big fan of backing a team as a home favorite after a tough loss, but in this case, the emotions of the night game will keep it from being a sleepy spot for the Nits. Usually Washington looks good on paper, but you have to adjust for the hidden yards and lack of points that they score due to the things they usually do on the road. This week they don't have any advantages on paper. I've said in the past that in order to cover a number on the road, Washington has to win the yardage battle by 200+ more yards than you would think because of their intangible shortcomings. If they play OSU to a statistical standstill, previous experience this year tells us they'll lose by 17. I don't think they'll have much a chance to manage that here. Regardless of who plays or doesn't play for Penn State, I'll lay it here.

Nailed this one

 

[Br@ssknux]

Thought about a couple others. I like BYU but feel like they might be on the road to some bad luck against Utah. I do not trust Utah at all because their offense stinks and I think BYU deserves credit for how good their defense has been, but I have an irrational fear of weird things for the Cougs today. Hopefully I don't kick myself for not riding them again.

If I thought ND would care I'd fade Florida State again, but there's so many ways a favorite can blow a cover when it's as high as 25.

I like Utah State getting a ton of points against a bad defense in WAZZOU, especially when they can score themselves, but the Cougars might not punt and Mateer might get 600 total yards.

Mississippi State has covered like crazy and Tennessee is looking ahead to Georgia, but their defense is so bad, I still hesitate. Miss State's offense should be a good back door candidate though.

Have a feeling Colorado keeps rolling but not quite enough to lay 4.5

With King, I like GT to hang with Miami, but he still looks banged up and they rely on him a ton. Just couldn't pull the trigger at under 10 because Miami is going to score a lot in that one.

Hope everyone has a great day

 

[M.W.]

Watching that kid last week is far and away the biggest reason for that play. I mean, just look at him! Good points though and great find on the lingering Vandy effects. Thanks as always! Could not pull the trigger on VT with the injury situation for the Hokies and I've never been a big fan of them anyway.

So far so good. 14-0.

 

[Uncle Thirsty]

Texas Tech is 129 out of 133 division 1 teams in pass defense. Dont see how they hold Colorado under 45. Tech overs at home always seem to be in play because our offense plays better at home. Tajh Brooks looking to be teams all time leading rusher today, should have the team ready to rock. Just dont see how we stop them.

 

[2daBank]

12. @LSU +2.5 v Alabama: (BR) I'm just not going to fade LSU as a home dog here. Alabama has good numbers, and I'm a DeBoer fan but they've already lost on the road to Vanderbilt and a Tennessee team that couldn't previously move the ball, so I don't know why we would think they'll be able to pull this off. Worse pass offenses have shredded this Alabama pass defense(despite their pretty good numbers). Even La Norris Sellers was completing 35 yard passes in crucial situations in Tuscaloosa, so I think Nussmeier and those receivers will have success in this one. Defensively, LSU will have to find an answer for Milroe's ability to escape the pocket, but I think in this moment, in an elimination game under the lights, I would rather take the points with an LSU team that at 5-1 ATS over the past few years as a home dog is one of the most consistent teams in the country in that role.

I lean this way but running qbs have been a nightmare for lsu, i have a feeling Milroe might get dialed up to run a bunch today. I played his over 51.5 rush yards, as of now that all I have. We can def both win those!

 

[gps_3]

We got the same officiating crew we had for USF and Tennessee games this year, so it’s a certainty there will be tons of flags

 

[twinkie13]

I lean this way but running qbs have been a nightmare for lsu, i have a feeling Milroe might get dialed up to run a bunch today. I played his over 51.5 rush yards, as of now that all I have. We can def both win those!

QB change did that. I wouldn’t think that happens

 

[gps_3]

QB change did that. I wouldn’t think that happens

What about with Sellers lol?

 

[twinkie13]

What about with Sellers lol?

Surprise me without Saban. It’s been great so far. Good luck bro

 

[Br@ssknux]

Overall went 8-5 and got some good breaks to get there. Doesn’t happen often but I’ll acknowledge it when it happens. Getting on a plane so not sure when the recaps will come but I’ll do them today.