Week 11 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Well, it was a 6-7 week last week, and frankly, I deserved that fate. Yearly total moves to 73-59 (.5530). The dream of 60% is fleeting now, as we some how have only 3 full weeks left in the season, good Lord. I say I deserved the fate of a negative week because I played 6 road favorites, nearly half of the total plays. Not surprisingly they went 1-5. The previous week I played only 2 and they both won, so it's not that road favorites are unplayable, it's just that you can't hitch your wagon to them, and that's what I did last week. This is a really interesting slate of games this week. Let's see what happens.


Indiana +6.5 WIN
Michigan -4 WIN
Georgia Tech +14 LOSS
Kentucky +11 LOSS
Wake +2 LOSS
Tennessee -2.5 LOSS
Rutgers +1 LOSS
Auburn +2.5 WIN
Cal -1.5 WIN
Oregon State -21 WIN
Michigan State +31.5 LOSS
Fresno State +2.5 LOSS
Oregon -16 LOSS
Air Force -19.5 LOSS (but only missed that one by 33.5...Good thing I made sure to add it)

1. Indiana +6.5 @Illinois: Big comeback win for the Illini last week, which puts them in a good spot to make a bowl game despite what everyone would agree has been a shit year by all measures. If that happens, it would be a pretty positive commentary for Bret Bielema since this is a program that typically misses bowl games even in pretty decent years. They need 2 more wins to make a bowl, and they have home games with Northwestern and in this one. If you were looking for two wins in the Big Ten pretty much everyone is a possibility, but those Northwestern and Indiana would be 2 of the programs that would shoot to the top of the list. Step one is this week, but when I match these two squads up on paper, Illinois' struggles on the offensive line makes this game look more like a stalemate. Indiana has played much better in recent weeks and would like nothing better than to play spoiler. Defensively they haven't been great, but they've held their own in most games, including Ohio State, Louisville and Penn State two weeks ago. In the Penn State game, by the eye test they had the better of the play against the Nittany lion offense for large stretches of the game, and last week they kept Wisconsin in check. Over the past couple of years the Hoosiers have been terrible in the underdog role, but it hasn't bothered them the past 2 weeks, and Illinois under Bielema has not been a good home favorite. In their 4 wins this year they've won by 2, 6, 3 and 1 point and they've failed to cover 7 straight at home. Luke Altmyer was knocked out late in their game last week and he hasn't practiced, so it's highly unlikely that he'll get out of concussion protocol. That means backup John Paddock will play, and although he came off the bench to lead the heroic winning drive and started for Ball State last year there's a reason he's seen almost no action. Bielema actually didn't rule out using some of their other QBs as well, none of whom have taken a college snap, so that should tell you something. Frankly, as an alum, I'll be happy if they just get a win. I am not expecting them to win this game comfortably.

Bielema now has failed to cover in 8 straight home games. The two defenses in this game might have played the worst collective game of defense I've ever seen. Indiana just decided not to cover anyone, and Illinois just tackled every receiver as the ball was in flight. I think they committed 8 pass interference penalties. Shows what I know about John Paddock. In his first career start in Champaign he broke the Memorial Stadium record for passing yards in a game.
 
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2. Michigan -4 @Penn State: My guess is that Michigan will find a way for Harbaugh to be on the sidelines for this one...I have no interest in trying to handicap how that whole fiasco will affect things, so I'm sticking to what we've seen on the field. Michigan famously hasn't played anyone of note, but when they've been interested, t's not been pretty for their opponents. The focus is on Michigan's weak schedule, and with good reason..I mean, how is it possible that we are in the second weekend of November and we're STILL waiting to find out what Michigan looks like against a team with a pulse? Having said that, since both of these teams play in the Big Ten, how much better has Penn State's schedule been? The only decent team they've played is Ohio State and they shit the bed in that game. Both teams look like they're going to struggle mightily to run the ball based on their bodies of work, but it's hard to assume that Penn State will hold up their end of the bargain when we remember that the Wolverines piled up 418 yards rushing in this game last year. It's not hard to assume that Michigan will stuff Penn State's running game because most of the teams on Penn State's schedule have already done that, most notably Northwestern, who held them to 3.4 yards per carry and Indiana, who held them to 3.1. The key in this game in my opinion is going to be JJ McCarthy. He's the second highest graded QB in PFF and has graded out extremely well in all situations. Penn State's defense is definitely one of the best in the country, but they fell asleep on deep balls a number of times two weeks ago against Indiana, and if Michigan has done anything in big games lately, it's scheme their receivers open downfield. I have a ton more faith that Michigan will be able to move the ball effectively than I do Penn State, especially considering how week the Nittany Lion offensive line is in the middle. It's been pretty obvious what Penn State's flaws are, especially offensively, and we're left to guess at what Michigan's are. When they've been awakened from their boredom, they've humiliated teams, and although I think this will be their toughest test, I don't think Penn State and James Franklin are the team to beat them. Harbaugh has also covered 8 of his last 10 as a road favorite.

I haven't checked yet, but has anyone from Michigan said why they decided not to attempt a pass in the second half with the guy who's got the second lowest Heisman odds? They used half their offense, which wasn't very effective, and covered anyway. Right side I guess.
 
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3. Georgia Tech +14.5 @Clemson: I really should have written up Clemson last week, but I was afraid that their lack of a pass game against the ND defense would make it tough on them. It turned out they only threw for barely more than 100 yards and it didn't matter. It was a great spot for the Tigers and it never felt like they were in danger of losing that game. This week they are back in what I would call a tough spot, coming off that win and looking forward to a third straight home date next week with North Carolina a Drake Maye. As much as Georgia Tech has improved, the Yellow Jackets still don't elicit a ton of juice as an opponent, and I'm thinking they can settle into the role that fits them like a glove, the double digit road underdog. Actually, any game as a road underdog fits them nicely, as they've gone 10-4 ATS in that role since '21. On the other hand, Clemson is 6-10 ATS as a home favorite in that same span, but only 2-10 ATS as a double digit home favorite. Surprisingly, I think Georgia Tech under key has fashioned a pretty good offensive line, as they rank 10th in the country in yards per rush and have done a great job keeping Hayes King upright, ranking 8th in sack rate allowed, 2 areas where Clemson is rather pedestrian. Tech has been terrible for most of the year on defense, but less so on the road, and Clemson's offense is much less equipped than most to really take advantage of them. Tech is especially bad against the pass, but Cade Klubnik hasn't shown the ability to torch anyone, and Will Shipley is back this week. I like Shipley, he plays hard, but every carry that isn't taken by Phil Mafah in my opinion is a win for the YellowJackets. For Clemson to cover this, they'll have to dominate the Georgia Tech offense, which for them is possible, but nobody else has really done it for 4 quarters. They'll also have to avoid killer turnovers, and those have been plentiful for the Tigers this year. Georgia tech's been plucky in this role, and I'm guessing they do what they do this week as well, in a bit of a sleepy spot for Clemson.

We got a 20% effort from the Georgia Tech offense with 4 picks thrown by King, no running game, dropped passes all over the field, the usual wet nap performance from their defense and lost the cover by a TD.
 
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4. @Kentucky +11 v Alabama: I have to admit that this play is based mostly on a feeling, although my numbers bear out taking the points here as well. The spread is only 11 here, but I've not seen anyone giving Kentucky a chance in this game, and that's probably mostly because Alabama has won some high profile games the past couple of weeks and Kentucky's blowout loss to Georgia is still on everyone's mind. When you stack these teams up against each other, I give Kentucky an edge in several categories. Defensively, the Cats are no slouch, ranking 20th in the country in yards per rush against and 33rd in overall yards per play despite playing some very good offenses in recent weeks. Bama ran it well on LSU last week(who hasn't?) but they've struggled to run it for the most part, ranking only 70th. Jalen Milroe is great on the deep ball, and I'm sure he'll hit a couple long ones, but their offense is prone to lulls because he gets sacked so much. Offensively, Ray Davis should be competitive running the ball and QB Devin Leary s only a couple weeks removed from a 372 yard passing effort against a good pass D in Tennessee. Alabama is 3-7 in it's last 10 as a road favorite of more than a TD, and they've lost 3 of those outright. The Tide is coming off a couple of revenge spots that they really wanted the last couple weeks, so I would think they might be susceptible to lazy effort in an 11 AM game against a team that they historically have had no issues against. Everyone's assuming they'll waltz into the SEC title game, and we haven't seen a lot of chaos yet this year. I could look silly, but I have a feeling this one will get people's attention.

Hey! Kentucky sacked Milroe 3 times and got two turnovers! Yay! Too bad every other play went for 15 or more yards. Alabama now 4-7 as a true road double digit favorite. Nice hunch I had there.
 
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5. @Wake +2 v NC State: I would have loved to have gotten 3 here, but I'll take 2. Holy shot what a horrible spot this is for NC State. Despite the fact that they stink out loud on offense, they're coming off two humongous wins in back to back weeks at home over Clemson and Miami. In both cases they got every break imaginable, so the regression is probably coming, especially now that their offense is destined to get worse because Brennan Armstrong will be back under center. Frankly, I'm still trying to figure out what happened to that guy, but the sample size is large enough for us to conclude that he's just not any good anymore. He's back in the starting lineup because MJ Morris, who has been the starter for the past several weeks just decided to quit this year to maintain his redshirt, in a move that is sure to endear him to other teams looking for a reliable, team oriented guy to lead their teams. Even with Morris, the Wolfpack has been anemic on offense despite their recent success. They were outgained by 230 yards combined in those games and managed 202 yards against Clemson and 231 last week against Miami. I am by no means excited about backing this Wake offense, but maybe we'll get lucky and Mitch Griffis will get lost on the way to the stadium. In his defense, he did have one of his better games last week in a close loss at Duke against a pretty good Blue Devil defense. (16/19 241 yards). Defensively, the Deacs aren't bad, and I have them with an edge on the NC State offense, especially with Armstrong in there. Wake's had a rough year, but they still have a shot at bowl eligibility and they have to have this win to get there. Clawson is a good home dog(5-1 ATS since 2019) and I trust him to have a good plan here. NC State on the other hand locked up a bowl last week, and they're 2-9 ATS in their last 11 as a road favorite. It's a bad spot for the Wolfpack here.

We needed the backup "Kern" to get lost on the way to the stadium too. The #97 rushing attack in the country went for 263 yards(182 of it by the QB and a WR). The number 107 rushing attack went for 7. 163 total yards for Wake. NC State's offense still sucks.
 
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6. Tennessee -2.5 @Missouri: This one was at Tennessee -1 last night but has crept up to 2.5 and might be at 3 soon. This is another really tough spot, this time for Missouri. The Tigers are coming off a brutal game with Georgia in which they played extremely well, but they paid a big price for it as their best player and one of the best receivers in the country, WR Luther Burden is very questionable for this game, and will be hobbled at best. The threat of Burden opens everything else up for Missouri, and it's even helped them in the run game lately. That's one area that i don't think the Tigers will have any success against the Vols, as Tennessee has been very good against the run all year. They'll have the edge in the run game on offense as well, as they have in the previous 2 times Heupel and Drinkwitz have teed it up. Missouri better hope there's not any carry over from those matchups because it's been about as one sided as you could imagine. I'm talking 1927 Yankees against a row of baby seals. The Vols have piled up 723 and 684 yards in the two times Heupel has seen them and it's been equal opportunity destruction, either by land or by air. Last year the Vols torched the Tigers for 460 passing yards at 12.1 yards per attempt, and in 2021 they ran for 458 yards at 7.8 yards per carry. Suffice it to say that Heupel has a plan against the Mizzou defenses, and he's relished it because Drinkwitz had the gumption to poke fun at the Vols when they got in NCAA hot water on national radio. I see quite a bit of advantages here for the Vols and a very advantageous spot as Tennessee was able to rest most of their guys as a result of the laugher they had at home last week against UConn. If Missouri sacks up and wins this one, I'll be the first to tip my cap because it looks like things are stacked up aganst them against a team that's owned them recently.

Missouri: 69th ranked rush offense. Tennessee 8th ranked rush D. Result: Missouri running back Schrader rushes for 205 yards and catches dink passes for 116 more. Also, Josh Heupel forgot how to coordinate offense and got depantsed by Drinkwitz. That had to sting. Safe to say this was not a great call.
 
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7. Rutgers +1 @Iowa: I know I probably shouldn't do this because I'll be subjecting myself to the voodoo magic of Iowa's punt game, but this offense, and to a larger extent, whole team is so bad that I can't resist. Besides, Minnesota beat them, so it can happen, right? In conference games, Iowa averages 187 total yards and 91 yards passing. They've been outgained by EVERY SINGLE TEAM on their schedule except one, Western Michigan. In conference, they are getting outgained by an average of 117 yards per game. Their obvious strength is defense, but even in that regard, there have been warts, as Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin and Michigan State, each of them well below average offensively, have all gained 320 yards or more despite the extreme slow down game the Hawkeyes play. Rutgers isn't great on offense, but they're coming off a game in which they managed to outgain Ohio State and saw their tailback Kyle Monangai pile up 159 rushing yards at 6.6 yards per carry. Rutgers QB Gavin Wimsatt is also one of the most reliable QBs as it relates to limiting turnovers, ranking in the top 10 in lowest turnover play rate and grades highly per PFFs fumble. Defensively, Rutgers is as good if not better than pretty much every defense Iowa has played with the exception of Penn State. It's a big if, but if Rutgers can avoid special teams miscues, they're the better team. They are also in their element as the road dog in conference, a role they are 11-3-1 in since Schiano returned in 2020.

Great effort by Rutgers here. Zero points on offense. Zero. That's really hard to do in the college game. They also gave up 400+ yards to Iowa. That's even harder to do. By the way, every college DC should watch Iowa tape. You know why they're good? They run with receivers and then look back for the ball. They don't grab. Defensive ends maintain contain. They take measured angles in pursuit. Stunningly, they are among the best defenses regardless of personnel year after year.
 
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8. Auburn +2.5 @Arkansas: I really liked the Hogs last week because they did a great thing and fired their dunce of an OC, Dan Enos. It was likely that they would ride the wave of the good feeling of being rid of that incompetence, plus they were on the road and getting points, which means good things. Unfortunately, I chickened out because the line dropped all the way to 3, and I wasn't sure the Hogs were ready to actually win that game in Gainesville since they had never done it previously. Well, because Arkansas always covers as a road dog, they won outright. Unfortunately, in that game, they lost the only solid pass catchers that they had left, Andrew Armstrong and Ty Washington after losing Luke Hasz among others prior to that. Armstrong might come back this week, but Washington is out for the year. Arkansas also returns home, and will be favored, which is not the role in which they've been successful. So far this year they've dropped home games outright to BYU and Mississippi State, two losses that look worse each week and they failed to cover at home against Kent in the only game Kent has covered all year. Auburn has not been great this year in Hugh Freeze's first year, but they are getting better and still have a shot at a bowl. If they win this one, they have New Mexico State left on the schedule, so that should get them to bowl eligibility. Also, their pass game with Payton Thorne has gotten competent the last 2 weeks, and this Arkansas pass defense(119th in yards per pass attempt allowed) is on par with the two defenses that Thorne has burned lately, Vandy and the aforementioned Mississippi State Bulldogs. The vibe at Razorback Stadium this year has not been good, and I'm guessing that will continue. I show Auburn as having the edge in the majority of categories, and if Miss State can hold the Razorbacks to 3 points, so can an Auburn team that's building momentum in year one of Freeze.

Had the right side here, but this is a good example of how the day went. Auburn was better, but 48-10 or whatever it was? There weren't a lot of teasers that came into play yesterday, I'll say that.
 
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9. @Cal -1.5 v Washington State: Ever since UCLA completely shut down Cam Ward and Wazzou several weeks ago, it appears that the Pac 12 has figured out how to defend the Cougs. Arizona held them to 6 and then last week Stanford held them to 7, also in Pullman. Cal is going to have a major edge on the ground with Jaydn Ott against the WSU run defense that can't stop anything, and Washington State is so bad on the ground on offense that Wilcox won't need to stack the box at all and can keep some guys back to defend the pass. Washington State looks like they've kind of given up, and that's not the case for Cal, who finally get some class relief after a brutal stretch of games against Oregon State, @Utah, USC and @Oregon in successive weeks. Cal hasn't been good on defense, but as I mentioned, the numbers are skewed a bit by the elite competition they've faced. I don't think Wazzou is in a state in which they can go on the road and win against a team with a pulse right now.

Cal tried to blow it by just letting Washington State score late, but luckily we only had to cover 2. I'll admit 2 defensive scores helped a lot in this one.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
3. Georgia Tech +14.5 @Clemson: I really should have written up Clemson last week, but I was afraid that their lack of a pass game against the ND defense would make it tough on them. It turned out they only threw for barely more than 100 yards and it didn't matter. It was a great spot for the Tigers and it never felt like they were in danger of losing that game. This week they are back in what I would call a tough spot, coming off that win and looking forward to a third straight home date next week with North Carolina a Drake Maye. As much as Georgia Tech has improved, the Yellow Jackets still don't elicit a ton of juice as an opponent, and I'm thinking they can settle into the role that fits them like a glove, the double digit road underdog. Actually, any game as a road underdog fits them nicely, as they've gone 10-4 ATS in that role since '21. On the other hand, Clemson is 6-10 ATS as a home favorite in that same span, but only 2-10 ATS as a double digit home favorite. Surprisingly, I think Georgia Tech under key has fashioned a pretty good offensive line, as they rank 10th in the country in yards per rush and have done a great job keeping Hayes King upright, ranking 8th in sack rate allowed, 2 areas where Clemson is rather pedestrian. Tech has been terrible for most of the year on defense, but less so on the road, and Clemson's offense is much less equipped than most to really take advantage of them. Tech is especially bad against the pass, but Cade Klubnik hasn't shown the ability to torch anyone, and Will Shipley is back this week. I like Shipley, he plays hard, but every carry that isn't taken by Phil Mafah in my opinion is a win for the YellowJackets. For Clemson to cover this, they'll have to dominate the Georgia Tech offense, which for them is possible, but nobody else has really done it for 4 quarters. They'll also have to avoid killer turnovers, and those have been plentiful for the Tigers this year. Georgia tech's been plucky in this role, and I'm guessing they do what they do this week as well, in a bit of a sleepy spot for Clemson.
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On this play with you!
 
Br@ssknux said:
8. Auburn +2.5 @Arkansas: I really liked the Hogs last week because they did a great thing and fired their dunce of an OC, Dan Enos. It was likely that they would ride the wave of the good feeling of being rid of that incompetence, plus they were on the road and getting points, which means good things. Unfortunately, I chickened out because the line dropped all the way to 3, and I wasn't sure the Hogs were ready to actually win that game in Gainesville since they had never done it previously. Well, because Arkansas always covers as a road dog, they won outright. Unfortunately, in that game, they lost the only solid pass catchers that they had left, Andrew Armstrong and Ty Washington after losing Luke Hasz among others prior to that. Armstrong might come back this week, but Washington is out for the year. Arkansas also returns home, and will be favored, which is not the role in which they've been successful. So far this year they've dropped home games outright to BYU and Mississippi State, two losses that look worse each week and they failed to cover at home against Kent in the only game Kent has covered all year. Auburn has not been great this year in Hugh Freeze's first year, but they are getting better and still have a shot at a bowl. If they win this one, they have New Mexico State left on the schedule, so that should get them to bowl eligibility. Also, their pass game with Payton Thorne has gotten competent the last 2 weeks, and this Arkansas pass defense(119th in yards per pass attempt allowed) is on par with the two defenses that Thorne has burned lately, Vandy and the aforementioned Mississippi State Bulldogs. The vibe at Razorback Stadium this year has not been good, and I'm guessing that will continue. I show Auburn as having the edge in the majority of categories, and if Miss State can hold the Razorbacks to 3 points, so can an Auburn team that's building momentum in year one of Freeze.
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On this play with you!
 
Br@ssknux said:
7. Rutgers +1 @Iowa: I know I probably shouldn't do this because I'll be subjecting myself to the voodoo magic of Iowa's punt game, but this offense, and to a larger extent, whole team is so bad that I can't resist. Besides, Minnesota beat them, so it can happen, right? In conference games, Iowa averages 187 total yards and 91 yards passing. They've been outgained by EVERY SINGLE TEAM on their schedule except one, Western Michigan. In conference, they are getting outgained by an average of 117 yards per game. Their obvious strength is defense, but even in that regard, there have been warts, as Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin and Michigan State, each of them well below average offensively, have all gained 320 yards or more despite the extreme slow down game the Hawkeyes play. Rutgers isn't great on offense, but they're coming off a game in which they managed to outgain Ohio State and saw their tailback Kyle Monangai pile up 159 rushing yards at 6.6 yards per carry. Rutgers QB Gavin Wimsatt is also one of the most reliable QBs as it relates to limiting turnovers, ranking in the top 10 in lowest turnover play rate and grades highly per PFFs fumble. Defensively, Rutgers is as good if not better than pretty much every defense Iowa has played with the exception of Penn State. It's a big if, but if Rutgers can avoid special teams miscues, they're the better team. They are also in their element as the road dog in conference, a role they are 11-3-1 in since Schiano returned in 2020.
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On this play with you, just didn't qualify edge wise to post...
 
Br@ssknux said:
Well, it was a 6-7 week last week, and frankly, I deserved that fate. Yearly total moves to 73-59 (.5530). The dream of 60% is fleeting now, as we some how have only 3 full weeks left in the season, good Lord. I say I deserved the fate of a negative week because I played 6 road favorites, nearly half of the total plays. Not surprisingly they went 1-5. The previous week I played only 2 and they both won, so it's not that road favorites are unplayable, it's just that you can't hitch your wagon to them, and that's what I did last week. This is a really interesting slate of games this week. Let's see what happens.


1. Indiana +6.5 @Illinois: Big comeback win for the Illini last week, which puts them in a good spot to make a bowl game despite what everyone would agree has been a shit year by all measures. If that happens, it would be a pretty positive commentary for Bret Bielema since this is a program that typically misses bowl games even in pretty decent years. They need 2 more wins to make a bowl, and they have home games with Northwestern and in this one. If you were looking for two wins in the Big Ten pretty much everyone is a possibility, but those Northwestern and Indiana would be 2 of the programs that would shoot to the top of the list. Step one is this week, but when I match these two squads up on paper, Illinois' struggles on the offensive line makes this game look more like a stalemate. Indiana has played much better in recent weeks and would like nothing better than to play spoiler. Defensively they haven't been great, but they've held their own in most games, including Ohio State, Louisville and Penn State two weeks ago. In the Penn State game, by the eye test they had the better of the play against the Nittany lion offense for large stretches of the game, and last week they kept Wisconsin in check. Over the past couple of years the Hoosiers have been terrible in the underdog role, but it hasn't bothered them the past 2 weeks, and Illinois under Bielema has not been a good home favorite. In their 4 wins this year they've won by 2, 6, 3 and 1 point and they've failed to cover 7 straight at home. Luke Altmyer was knocked out late in their game last week and he hasn't practiced, so it's highly unlikely that he'll get out of concussion protocol. That means backup John Paddock will play, and although he came off the bench to lead the heroic winning drive and started for Ball State last year there's a reason he's seen almost no action. Bielema actually didn't rule out using some of their other QBs as well, none of whom have taken a college snap, so that should tell you something. Frankly, as an alum, I'll be happy if they just get a win. I am not expecting them to win this game comfortably.
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Opposite of you on this one.
 
10. @Oregon State -21 v Stanford: Stanford has been really impressive in recent weeks, and they've won me money a couple times, but I don't like their chances here. Their recent success has come at the expense of Colorado(who was drilling the Cardinal, but got distracted) and Washington State , but they are stepping up to the toughest environment to be successful in if you're a visiting team. Stanford also stepped up and played well against Washington, but by al accounts, Washington's defense was sleepwalking through that game. Now thy face Oregon State, who is more on par, especially defensively with Oregon and UCLA, two teams who combined to beat Stanford 84-13 in the midst of their turnaround. We also have to remember that Oregon State is money at home, having covered 15 of their last 16 in Corvalis. The Beavers have a major edge in every conceivable category as they are very good in everything Stanford is competent in. I think Stanford takes a bit of a step back in an almost impossible environment this week, but they're headed in the right direction in my opinion.

This one was over from jump street. Stanford still not at the level of the top Pac 12 teams. Beavers remain at ATM at home.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
If you win that one, it's the one I won't have a problem with. Illini need the win and it would be nice to see them get a relatively easy one. My fear is that would be too good to be true.
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Yea, they haven't won in these situations and Indiana's defense came up big last week, but not sure how good it is vs a relatively poor offense in Wiscy, however as you stated they've held their own vs good opponents. I've got Illinois at at 5'-20, so let it land 6 and everyone's happy
 
11. Michigan State +31.5 @Ohio State: This whole thing will probably be an exercise in futility because I totally expect to see Ohio State at the 30 yard line up 28 with 3 and a half minutes left and we're left to wonder if Ryan Day feels like covering or not. It'll probably come down to that, but for our purposes, we have to handicap and analyze, and having done that, it doesn't seem to me that Ohio State should be assumed to be a good enough, or explosive enough team to be installed as this big of a favorite against a non-cupcake. I might be mischaracterizing MSU here, but you know what I'm saying. Historically, against a down Big Ten team, you wouldn't be surprised to see OSU laying a number like this. The expectation would be a 600 yard offensive effort with Fields or Stroud or whoever playing QB as well as a running game that could explode for an 80 yard run from one of about 6 or 7 guys on the RB depth chart. That's not the case this year. They have 1 very good offensive performance in conference this year, and that was at Purdue. Other than that, OSU is averaging 372 yards per game. They rank 79th in yards per carry. They're ok on 3rd down. Kyle McCord gets sacked about as often as any other stiff college QB does. Defensively, they're great, and MSU is going to have a devil of a time scoring, but the Spartans are 35th in yards per carry against on defense, 29th on 3rd down, and have been able to get some pretty consistent pressure on D. In short, I think the Spartans can be competitive on that side of the ball. My opinion on OSU might be a bit jaded by that ridiculous "19 point margin" they lucked into last week at Rutgers when they got thoroughly outplayed and outgained, but they don't seem like a team that should be laying this many. It might just kind of happen anyway, but the numbers they've produced so far this year don't justify it.

Ohio State is not worthy of laying 31.5. Michigan State is even less worthy of any consideration when they think they are overmatched. Good Lord, what a bunch of weak sucks. This is clear to me now, which is too late.
 
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12. Fresno State +2.5 @San Jose State: This line has flipped from Fresno as a short favorite to San Jose State being favored because there are a lot of very smart people who have wagered on San Jose State or said that they will be. And I can see why they would be attracted to that side. San Jose has played a very tough schedule including roadies at USC, Oregon State and Toledo. They also have already played and lost to Boise and Air Force in conference. When they've played weaker competition, they've rolled, and that's been over the past 3 weeks in which they pounded Utah State at home and Hawaii and New Mexico on the road.Also, Fresno QB Mikey Keene has been banged up, so if he was very questionable, that would matter, but i've done as much research as I can possibly do for a group of 5 game, and all references to the QB say that Keene is scheduled to go as usual. If the Spartans were getting a few points and installed in the dog role here, I think I'd be interested in giving them a look, but not as a 2.5 point favorite. SJSU has been good on offense, especially lately, but Fresno is stout on the defensive end as well, and I show Fresno having the edge everywhere on the other side of the ball, especially on 3rd down, where SJSU is among the worst units in the country while Fresno ranks 4th. Now Fresno has the added motivation of being dogged as an 8-1 team to a 4-5 geographic rival. SJSU has played 2 close games and lost them all, Fresno under Tedford knows what they're doing in close games, having gone 5-1. There's no way SJSU has the juice to blow the Bulldogs out here, so this game will come down to the wire, and although SJSU will probably have some exciting plays and look good at several times during the night(much like they did against Air Force earlier this year, only to have reality set in and end up with a 45-20 loss), but I expect Fresno to take care of business here. If San Jose does the trick, I'll tip my cap, but I'll take the points with an 8-1 squad who has advantages all over the field.

I was asleep before this game started, but it was 28-0 early in the second quarter, so I will admit defeat to my sharp overlords and the tricky bookmakers that fool the unwashed masses.
 
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13. @Oregon -16 v USC: There's risk of a back door here. I'll acknowledge that. But I doubt it. I'm not going to waste anyone's time going over the USC defensive metrics vs Oregon's offense. Just know Oregon will score just about as many points as they want to. USC can't stop them, and there's no evidence, especially in recent weeks that the USC defense even wants to stop anyone. Have you seem them try to tackle in the secondary? Just put some tape of any of their games on and no further explanation will be necessary. The prevailing wisdom is that this will be a shootout and USC will pile up points as well. I reject that position. This Oregon defense is very good, and I don't really see any edge for the USC offense against them. USC's offensive line won't have an edge, I can tell you that. They won't keep the Oregon pass rush out of Caleb Williams's face, ranking 88th in sack rate vs Oregon's 18th ranked pass rush. Also, USC is likely to wilt in this environment. It's all over for them. Nothing they care about is possible anymore, and they've failed to cover 6 of the last 8 times they've been dogged. Oregon's defense has the ability to do a number on Williams as least as thoroughly as Notre Dame did. If that happens, this might be an avalanche on the Trojans, and I don't think Dan Lanning will have any reason to call off the dogs. He doesn't strike me as a guy who would be overly charitable in this case anyway. Love the Ducks here. I'd probably lay up to 20.

Whatever.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
12. Fresno State +2.5 @San Jose State: This line has flipped from Fresno as a short favorite to San Jose State being favored because there are a lot of very smart people who have wagered on San Jose State or said that they will be. And I can see why they would be attracted to that side. San Jose has played a very tough schedule including roadies at USC, Oregon State and Toledo. They also have already played and lost to Boise and Air Force in conference. When they've played weaker competition, they've rolled, and that's been over the past 3 weeks in which they pounded Utah State at home and Hawaii and New Mexico on the road.Also, Fresno QB Mikey Keene has been banged up, so if he was very questionable, that would matter, but i've done as much research as I can possibly do for a group of 5 game, and all references to the QB say that Keene is scheduled to go as usual. If the Spartans were getting a few points and installed in the dog role here, I think I'd be interested in giving them a look, but not as a 2.5 point favorite. SJSU has been good on offense, especially lately, but Fresno is stout on the defensive end as well, and I show Fresno having the edge everywhere on the other side of the ball, especially on 3rd down, where SJSU is among the worst units in the country while Fresno ranks 4th. Now Fresno has the added motivation of being dogged as an 8-1 team to a 4-5 geographic rival. SJSU has played 2 close games and lost them all, Fresno under Tedford knows what they're doing in close games, having gone 5-1. There's no way SJSU has the juice to blow the Bulldogs out here, so this game will come down to the wire, and although SJSU will probably have some exciting plays and look good at several times during the night(much like they did against Air Force earlier this year, only to have reality set in and end up with a 45-20 loss), but I expect Fresno to take care of business here. If San Jose does the trick, I'll tip my cap, but I'll take the points with an 8-1 squad who has advantages all over the field.
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I feel this is a trap to take Fresno…even when the line opened I was quite shocked it was so low and now it flipped? So sketch
 
Br@ssknux said:
Well, it was a 6-7 week last week, and frankly, I deserved that fate. Yearly total moves to 73-59 (.5530). The dream of 60% is fleeting now, as we some how have only 3 full weeks left in the season, good Lord. I say I deserved the fate of a negative week because I played 6 road favorites, nearly half of the total plays. Not surprisingly they went 1-5. The previous week I played only 2 and they both won, so it's not that road favorites are unplayable, it's just that you can't hitch your wagon to them, and that's what I did last week. This is a really interesting slate of games this week. Let's see what happens.


1. Indiana +6.5 @Illinois: Big comeback win for the Illini last week, which puts them in a good spot to make a bowl game despite what everyone would agree has been a shit year by all measures. If that happens, it would be a pretty positive commentary for Bret Bielema since this is a program that typically misses bowl games even in pretty decent years. They need 2 more wins to make a bowl, and they have home games with Northwestern and in this one. If you were looking for two wins in the Big Ten pretty much everyone is a possibility, but those Northwestern and Indiana would be 2 of the programs that would shoot to the top of the list. Step one is this week, but when I match these two squads up on paper, Illinois' struggles on the offensive line makes this game look more like a stalemate. Indiana has played much better in recent weeks and would like nothing better than to play spoiler. Defensively they haven't been great, but they've held their own in most games, including Ohio State, Louisville and Penn State two weeks ago. In the Penn State game, by the eye test they had the better of the play against the Nittany lion offense for large stretches of the game, and last week they kept Wisconsin in check. Over the past couple of years the Hoosiers have been terrible in the underdog role, but it hasn't bothered them the past 2 weeks, and Illinois under Bielema has not been a good home favorite. In their 4 wins this year they've won by 2, 6, 3 and 1 point and they've failed to cover 7 straight at home. Luke Altmyer was knocked out late in their game last week and he hasn't practiced, so it's highly unlikely that he'll get out of concussion protocol. That means backup John Paddock will play, and although he came off the bench to lead the heroic winning drive and started for Ball State last year there's a reason he's seen almost no action. Bielema actually didn't rule out using some of their other QBs as well, none of whom have taken a college snap, so that should tell you something. Frankly, as an alum, I'll be happy if they just get a win. I am not expecting them to win this game comfortably.
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Right off the bat, some solid, clear- headed thinking here, Br@ss. I like it. Certainly, Illinois could have a solid performance at home today, but that is something we haven't seen even once this year (0-5 ATS in Champaign, and- as you mentioned- it stretches to 7 straight ATS losses at home going back into last year).
 
Cutting room floor:

I'm pretty confident Kansas is going to beat Texas Tech, but the numbers say that Tech should be able to score quite a bit here and I've liked how Morton has looked as he's gealed up from that shoulder. They'll find a way to lose but I dont like it enough to lay 4, especially after KU has had a couple of emotional wins lately and has K State coming up.

If Virginia Tech was the dog, I'd be on it, but that has flipped to VT as a road favorite. I do not like that. VT looks like the better team lately, and BC is a horrific home favorite. But they're good as a dog and VT can't be trusted as a road favorite, so even though I have them as the better team, circumstances rule them out.

Was close to playing Nebraska as a home dog against Maryland, but chickened out. Not sure why because there's a high likelihood Maryland has thrown in the towel, and I can see that Nebraska defense flummoxing Locksley.

ODU has been money, but so has Liberty. If I had a few more points I'd take the Monarchs. The matchups are a little less charitable to ODU than usual. Liberty is good at the same things ODU is.

I can see why a lot of people like Georgia State, and Appy State has been a great go against, but not as a dog. They have enough offense to keep piling up points and Georgia State has not been reliable at home against non-patsies.

Thought about jumping back on Arizona after my misguided attempt at fading them last week, but this is the absolute height of the market for them, and I don't know if they can cover a big number as a favorite. We'll find out.

Was very tempted to ride K State as a home favorite, but the one spot Baylor has been good at is as a sizable road dog. They've been terrible at home, resourceful on the road. No sense in forcing this one when it looks like an overpay.

Texas State looks like the better team against Coastal, but not by enough to lay this rising number on the road. I'll probably look back and wonder why I didn't fade Tim beck with a 3rd string QB, but I'm dumb like that sometimes.

Really have no feel on Washington/Utah.

Wisconsin looks like a value against Northwestern at Camp Randall only laying 10, but the Cats have been surprisingly good on defense and this Wisconsin offense has virtually no players left. 10 not enough for me though.

Really like the spot for UCF, but they'll have to win the game and I don't trust this version of UCF to do that, especially when it's Gundy on the other side. Cover 6? Sure. Win? no.

If I wasn't convinced that Tyler Van Dyke is completely broken I would have taken the points with Miami. He looks putrid though, so no thanks.

South Alabama should have their way with Arky State this week, but I'm still sore from that violation I took from the Red Wolves last week and USA has been a bit shaky in these situations lately so I passed.

Ga Southern looks like the better team against Marshall, but that line keeps rising. Marshall has been so bad at home that it shouldn't bother me, but they usually aren't dogged at home. I'll be betting this one, I just don't like laying 3 or more. GSU is the side here though.

I never bet on Danny Gonzalez because he's something like 6-76 in his career ATS, but this is one of the biggest discrepancies I've seen in the numbers I put together. Boise's defense is bad enough that they probably shouldn't be favored by this much against anyone, let alone a surprisingly decent offense like UNM. But like I said, I don't bet on New Mexico.

That's about it. Best of luck to everyone.
 
Thanks for taking the time to post and offering your insight Brass.

Good luck today.

:cheers3:
 
MikeU said:
I feel this is a trap to take Fresno…even when the line opened I was quite shocked it was so low and now it flipped? So sketch
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Oh that is definitely possible. Fresno has been outgained, etc by a lot of teams. I might be the mouse, but I've also seen situations like this where the wiseguys get egg on their face. We'll see.
 
Br@ssknux said:
4. @Kentucky +11 v Alabama: I have to admit that this play is based mostly on a feeling, although my numbers bear out taking the points here as well. The spread is only 11 here, but I've not seen anyone giving Kentucky a chance in this game, and that's probably mostly because Alabama has won some high profile games the past couple of weeks and Kentucky's blowout loss to Georgia is still on everyone's mind. When you stack these teams up against each other, I give Kentucky an edge in several categories. Defensively, the Cats are no slouch, ranking 20th in the country in yards per rush against and 33rd in overall yards per play despite playing some very good offenses in recent weeks. Bama ran it well on LSU last week(who hasn't?) but they've struggled to run it for the most part, ranking only 70th. Jalen Milroe is great on the deep ball, and I'm sure he'll hit a couple long ones, but their offense is prone to lulls because he gets sacked so much. Offensively, Ray Davis should be competitive running the ball and QB Devin Leary s only a couple weeks removed from a 372 yard passing effort against a good pass D in Tennessee. Alabama is 3-7 in it's last 10 as a road favorite of more than a TD, and they've lost 3 of those outright. The Tide is coming off a couple of revenge spots that they really wanted the last couple weeks, so I would think they might be susceptible to lazy effort in an 11 AM game against a team that they historically have had no issues against. Everyone's assuming they'll waltz into the SEC title game, and we haven't seen a lot of chaos yet this year. I could look silly, but I have a feeling this one will get people's attention.
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The situation is pretty ripe for a close game for sure. I'm just going to wait and look to take Alabama 2nd half if they struggle in the 1st. Only thing that would worry me by backing Kentucky is that they didn't run the ball at all against UGA and Tenn, and Alabama likely has a better run defense than either of those two. And if they can't run, I don't see Leary having any success throwing the ball. I fully expect Alabama to start slow offensively, thus the 2nd half wager
 
gps_3 said:
The situation is pretty ripe for a close game for sure. I'm just going to wait and look to take Alabama 2nd half if they struggle in the 1st. Only thing that would worry me by backing Kentucky is that they didn't run the ball at all against UGA and Tenn, and Alabama likely has a better run defense than either of those two. And if they can't run, I don't see Leary having any success throwing the ball. I fully expect Alabama to start slow offensively, thus the 2nd half wager
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Can totally see that.
 
sevenpointroaddog said:
Right off the bat, some solid, clear- headed thinking here, Br@ss. I like it. Certainly, Illinois could have a solid performance at home today, but that is something we haven't seen even once this year (0-5 ATS in Champaign, and- as you mentioned- it stretches to 7 straight ATS losses at home going back into last year).
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Thanks as always SPRD. Really appreciate your thoughts.
 
Br@ssknux said:
13. @Oregon -16 v USC: There's risk of a back door here. I'll acknowledge that. But I doubt it. I'm not going to waste anyone's time going over the USC defensive metrics vs Oregon's offense. Just know Oregon will score just about as many points as they want to. USC can't stop them, and there's no evidence, especially in recent weeks that the USC defense even wants to stop anyone. Have you seem them try to tackle in the secondary? Just put some tape of any of their games on and no further explanation will be necessary. The prevailing wisdom is that this will be a shootout and USC will pile up points as well. I reject that position. This Oregon defense is very good, and I don't really see any edge for the USC offense against them. USC's offensive line won't have an edge, I can tell you that. They won't keep the Oregon pass rush out of Caleb Williams's face, ranking 88th in sack rate vs Oregon's 18th ranked pass rush. Also, USC is likely to wilt in this environment. It's all over for them. Nothing they care about is possible anymore, and they've failed to cover 6 of the last 8 times they've been dogged. Oregon's defense has the ability to do a number on Williams as least as thoroughly as Notre Dame did. If that happens, this might be an avalanche on the Trojans, and I don't think Dan Lanning will have any reason to call off the dogs. He doesn't strike me as a guy who would be overly charitable in this case anyway. Love the Ducks here. I'd probably lay up to 20.
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I agree completely with you on this one. I won’t be shocked if Caleb gets benched in the 2h if this game really gets away from the Trojans. Thank you for posting every week. Your thread is a must read on the CTG site. Best of luck this week!
 
Good luck today! On a bunch of yours so that’s a good thing, hoping my totals stay hot and can get above .500 on sides to have a monster week.

Agreed w almost every one of your passes in your post. I did take UCF based upon model only.

Have ECU, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Penn St, Ga St,,Ga southern, Wake F, Rutgers, Georgia Tech, Duke (at 14’), S Alabama at -12, Over Temple (Better #), Ov Fla (64) , Ov Indiana, Un Wake, Un Utah St, Und JMU, Ov Ok St, Ov Ariz, Ov App St. Ov Mich St.

A number of totals have CLV, a couple I missed. Surprisingly no movement on Harbaugh news especially expected HC misses game can be about 15-25% of change in performance. I was hoping to possibly hedge but all on Penn St.
 
Can anyone explain why Michigan is apparently choosing not to use the best player on the field? How many times are they going to run a line plunge on 3rd and 8 when the two previous line plunges netted 2 yards? Mc Carthy is 7 for 8 for the game.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Can anyone explain why Michigan is apparently choosing not to use the best player on the field? How many times are they going to run a line plunge on 3rd and 8 when the two previous line plunges netted 2 yards? Mc Carthy is 7 for 8 for the game.
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They don’t trust him.
 
14. Air Force -19.5 @Hawaii: The Falcons are coming off a beatdown at the hands of Army last week, so they will be extra focused on this game, and they probably wouldn't need to focus too much because this game is a mismatch. Hawaii can't stop anything on defense and they are among the worst 3rd down defenses in the country, which is death against this Air Force team that ranks in the top 5 in that metric. Defensively, Air Force is strong, and Hawaii has been on a downward spiral, culminating in last week's shutout loss to a below average defense in San Jose State. Sometimes these Mountain West teams get in a groove and are used to playing the Air Force triple option, but Hawaii hasn't played them since 2019, meaning nobody on the current coaching staff nor any players on the team have ever seen it while at Hawaii. I'd hesitate to lay this if Air Force was on a roll and might be overlooking the Warriors, but after last week, Air Force will be all over this one, and if that's the case, they should roll.

LOL
 
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Tenn rush defense OMG....just totally pathetic couldn't watch it anymore. And I hate that burnt orange color too ;)
 
What a horrific day, mostly night. I went to bed with a middling day going (5-5) with Michigan State already in the fetal position asking for their Mommy. I wake up hoping MSU maybe manages any kind of garbage TD.....no. Then I look at the 3 late games, and none of them were really all that close. 5-9 for the week. What a joke. One thing I noticed...if you are a dog player, especially a double digit dog player looking for pretty good teams that are catching double digits, pretty much every one of those gave up 40-50+ points. Florida. Ole Miss. Georgia Tech. West Virginia. Kentucky. 78-68 for the year now after 2 sub .500 days in a row.
 
Br@ssknux said:
14. Air Force -19.5 @Hawaii: The Falcons are coming off a beatdown at the hands of Army last week, so they will be extra focused on this game, and they probably wouldn't need to focus too much because this game is a mismatch. Hawaii can't stop anything on defense and they are among the worst 3rd down defenses in the country, which is death against this Air Force team that ranks in the top 5 in that metric. Defensively, Air Force is strong, and Hawaii has been on a downward spiral, culminating in last week's shutout loss to a below average defense in San Jose State. Sometimes these Mountain West teams get in a groove and are used to playing the Air Force triple option, but Hawaii hasn't played them since 2019, meaning nobody on the current coaching staff nor any players on the team have ever seen it while at Hawaii. I'd hesitate to lay this if Air Force was on a roll and might be overlooking the Warriors, but after last week, Air Force will be all over this one, and if that's the case, they should roll.
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Yeah, this one was a shocker.
 
Br@ssknux said:
13. @Oregon -16 v USC: There's risk of a back door here. I'll acknowledge that. But I doubt it. I'm not going to waste anyone's time going over the USC defensive metrics vs Oregon's offense. Just know Oregon will score just about as many points as they want to. USC can't stop them, and there's no evidence, especially in recent weeks that the USC defense even wants to stop anyone. Have you seem them try to tackle in the secondary? Just put some tape of any of their games on and no further explanation will be necessary. The prevailing wisdom is that this will be a shootout and USC will pile up points as well. I reject that position. This Oregon defense is very good, and I don't really see any edge for the USC offense against them. USC's offensive line won't have an edge, I can tell you that. They won't keep the Oregon pass rush out of Caleb Williams's face, ranking 88th in sack rate vs Oregon's 18th ranked pass rush. Also, USC is likely to wilt in this environment. It's all over for them. Nothing they care about is possible anymore, and they've failed to cover 6 of the last 8 times they've been dogged. Oregon's defense has the ability to do a number on Williams as least as thoroughly as Notre Dame did. If that happens, this might be an avalanche on the Trojans, and I don't think Dan Lanning will have any reason to call off the dogs. He doesn't strike me as a guy who would be overly charitable in this case anyway. Love the Ducks here. I'd probably lay up to 20.

Whatever.
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It was the right side.

It's fun when you go for 2 for absolutely no reason whatsoever and convert. Not so fun when you don't convert. It's a momentum killer and throws the offense out of sync. Missed conversions, some uncharacteristic drops/execution issues, a missed fg, and a horrible PI call late on 4th and 4 kept SC in covering range here.

I had this one at -8.5, -10, -13, -14 so this was a real frustrating one for me. But not once up until the very end did I think I would not cover the numbers.
 
AliShaheed said:
It was the right side.

It's fun when you go for 2 for absolutely no reason whatsoever and convert. Not so fun when you don't convert. It's a momentum killer and throws the offense out of sync. Missed conversions, some uncharacteristic drops/execution issues, a missed fg, and a horrible PI call late on 4th and 4 kept SC in covering range here.

I had this one at -8.5, -10, -13, -14 so this was a real frustrating one for me. But not once up until the very end did I think I would not cover the numbers.
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Yeah…..the fukers messed up my 1H play…..had -8.5 and -10……..I understand going for 1 but they went for 2 and missed both……then giving up TD before half……seems like they were not in mood for shootout with USC…..
 
AliShaheed said:
It was the right side.

It's fun when you go for 2 for absolutely no reason whatsoever and convert. Not so fun when you don't convert. It's a momentum killer and throws the offense out of sync. Missed conversions, some uncharacteristic drops/execution issues, a missed fg, and a horrible PI call late on 4th and 4 kept SC in covering range here.

I had this one at -8.5, -10, -13, -14 so this was a real frustrating one for me. But not once up until the very end did I think I would not cover the numbers.
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That PI call was ridiculous… I think this game may wake them up a bit. Leave that door open a crack vs a good team and it can torpedo the hopes of making the playoffs. Completely agree with you on Oregon being the right side..
 
inZane said:
Yeah, this one was a shocker.
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"Forget it, Jake. It's Chinatown."

That's all you needed to know to lay off of that one. I had a scorching-hot angle telling me to load up on the visitors, but I laid off. It's like Syracuse or Miami. The rules of football handicapping don't apply in these marginal places.

It's 4 time zones away.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
^^^^^^Please be gentle MW
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Here's a gentle critique of one point you made: the "lookahead" factor. Clemson never looks ahead to the game after next. It does, however, often look ahead to OPEN DATES as a comfortable favorite in the range of 12 to 30 points, more consistently at home (0-5 ATS), though the worst examples are the road games at Syracuse in 2017 (SU loss as -22) and UNC in 2019 (one-point W as -26.5). See below:

DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Oct 03, 2009Saturday52009CLEMMARYaway10-03-178-70-021-24-12.047.5-3-15.0-2.5-8.86.2LLU0
Nov 02, 2013Saturday102013CLEMVIRaway14-721-07-317-059-10-18.056.04931.013.022.0-9.0WWO0
Oct 25, 2014Saturday92014CLEMSYRhome0-33-36-07-016-6-15.547.510-5.5-25.5-15.5-10.0WLU0
Oct 15, 2016Saturday72016CLEMNCSThome3-07-37-70-724-17-20.060.07-13.0-19.0-16.0-3.0WLU1
Oct 13, 2017Friday72017CLEMSYRaway7-147-310-70-324-27-22.057.0-3-25.0-6.0-15.59.5LLU0
Oct 06, 2018Saturday62018CLEMWAKEaway7-021-021-314-063-3-20.562.56039.53.521.5-18.0WWO0
Sep 28, 2019Saturday52019CLEMNCARaway0-714-70-07-621-20-26.560.01-25.5-19.0-22.23.2WLU0
Oct 02, 2021boxSaturday52021CLEMBCOLhome7-36-33-73-019-13-14.546.56-8.5-14.5-11.5-3.0WLU0
Oct 22, 2022boxSaturday82022CLEMSYRhome7-73-140-017-027-21-14.050.06-8.0-2.0-5.03.0WLU0
Oct 07, 2023boxSaturday62023CLEMWAKEhome0-37-03-37-617-12-21.053.55-16.0-24.5-20.2-4.2WLU0
 
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Br@ssknux said:
^^^^^^Please be gentle MW
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In regard to Tech, I would point out that they are a zigzag team from week to week and from awful favorite to sneaky dog. They had already covered two straight, which was out of character, and asking for a third was too much (hence the "20% effort"). Moreover, the days of sneaking up were over as Tech -- for the first time since game 2 in 2020 -- went into a game with a winning record. They were 5-4 just like Clemson.

In regard to Clemson, things changed after the NC State loss, with Dabo instilling a different attitude at practice, and the staff simplifying things to help the OL (which is now playing much better despite losing another starter). The team appears to be in the midst of a season-ending run just like 2021, except that they're won't be any throwaway games as 40+ favorites (like Conn in '21, 44-7 as -40.5) to interrupt the ATS win streak. Expect Clemson to cover the next three. And don't forget: I bet against Clemson versus Miami and NC State before betting on Clemson the last two weeks.

For tomorrow, take note that Clemson's secondary is missing several players on the two-deep (can't really keep track), but is playing its best in years. Four freshmen each intercepted a pass last week.

Despite that, I think the UNC game will go over.
 
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