Week 11 Write ups and hopefully feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Another week, another late start. I was in California all week in meetings...glad to be back.

We went 10-4 this past week, which brings the yearly total to 76-53 (.5891). Hoping for another good week.


Georgia +2 WIN
South Carolina +8 LOSS
Texas +9 LOSS
North Carolina -13 WIN
Mississippi State +8 LOSS
Iowa State +14 WIN
Kansas State +5.5 LOSS
Indiana +13 WIN
Vanderbilt -3 WIN
Arkansas +7.5 WIN
Oregon +9.5 WIN
Oklahoma +3 WIN
Minnesota +10 WIN
New Mexico +30.5 WIN
Washington St +10 WIN

11-4 for the week, not bad. 6 outright upsets!



1. Georgia +2 @ Auburn: This one puzzles me a bit. I know that Georgia has been a bit of a mess the past few weeks, playing what appeared to be some kid they picked up off the street at QB in the Florida game and then virtually refusing to throw the ball last week in their home tilt with Kentucky. However, their defense has been outstanding, ranking 22nd, in yards per play, 20th against the pass and 10th in 3rd down conversions against. They've outgained their opponents by 90 yard per game despite their struggles, and they can still run the ball, even without Chubb. They rank 12th in yards per carry, and Auburn's defense ranks 99th stopping it. Sean White and company have shown no indication that they can score effectively on a legitimately good defense, and they've been outgained on the year by more than 50 yards per game. I think the wrong team is favored here.
 
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2. @South Carolina +8 v Florida: The Gators have already clinched the East, so they don't have much to play for though I do believe that they'll put forth a strong effort under McElwain after the debacle of the Vandy game, especially on offense. Having said that, I don't think their offense is capable of covering more than a TD spread against a decent squad on the road. Although South Carolina's season is on life support at 3-6, they have some things to be excited about as the interim coach has inspired them to some pretty solid performances in tough spots, and they're 3-0 ATS since he came aboard. I kind of like what they are doing offensively with Orth in there, and Brandon Wilds always runs hard. The Cocks would obviously lie nothing better than to get a feather in their cap with another win over the Gators, so I think you'll see a better effort than you would usually see for a 3-6 squad.
 
3. Texas +9 @ West Virginia: I have to admit that this is more of a fade of West Virginia than it is an endorsement of Texas, although we can all agree that Texas has for the most part looked miles better than they did when the whole world was crashing down on them earlier this year. Defensively, West Virginia's number aren't as bad as they look due to the explosive competition they've played, but they still haven't been able to stop the run all that well. I think the Horns will be able to run it on them, at least with the QBs. On offense, the 'Eers have been totally unimpressive for me, especially Skyler Howard. Consider that he only completed 12/24 with no TDs last week against a previously helpless Texas Tech defense that ranked 125th in passer rating against coming in. Also, the ATS numbers for West Virginia are not pretty: 1-6 as a conference home favorite since they joined the Big 12, 11-21 in conference overall. I Texas brings their non-pathetic game with them this week, I think they can win the game outright, and I certainly don't trust this Mountaineer squad to cover 9 here.
 
Thanks SIGO, TSC, Egg...have to take the kid to a hockey game. I'll be back later on tonight to finish up.
 
Be@ss I am with you and hope you are right about the Cocks. Perry Orth can be great but he seriously scares me with the gift-wrapped apple turnovers he bakes from time to time. Elliot seems to know how to use him well though the offense in SC is nothing to write home about. The defense has been playing great the last few games. BOL this week
 
4 @North Carolina -13 v Miami: I hate to be on the Tar Heels a week after their absolute demolition of a previously highly thought of defense in Duke, but this looks like a mismatch to me. North carolina's problem last year was their terrible defense, but under Gene Chizik, they've improved greatly, especially against the pass. Although they've struggled from time to time to stop the run, they are ranked 14th in passer rating against, and that's a good thing against Miami because the Canes can't run the ball worth a shit (113th). They prefer to beat teams through the air, but Brad Kaaya is banged up, and UNC is the wrong defense to try that strategy against. Offensively, UNC has been an absolute juggernaut, ranking 2nd in the country in overall yards per play, 4th in rushing yards per carry and 5th in passer rating. (I'm still stunned at how they possibly lost to South Carolina in their opener. It was truly the mother of all outliers. Miami is a terrible defensive outfit, especially against the run, so watch out for Elijah Hood's numbers if he gets enough carries. UNC is outgaining conference opponents by 100 yards, while the opposite is true for Miami. (-106). If UNC shows up with their normal effort, they should lay at least 45 on the Canes.
 
ohhh we agree a lot so far....hopefully that bodes well

I took Under in UGA/Auburn rather than UGA but I agree with your thoughts
 
5. @Mississippi State +8 v Alabama: Fading Alabama is probably bad for my health...it certainly was last week, but I think Mississippi State has quietly been putting together a nice year. They are 7-2 despite not really playing that well, including their game with LSU in which they outgained the Tigers and had a chance to win it in the past possession. Alabama is obviously good, but they struggle with QBs who can throw the ball, and Dak Prescott can definitely do that, having thrown for 300+ on LSU. Bama is coming off their own game with LSU, so there's a chance they could be still coming down from the high of that one. I like Dan Mullen, and I think he'll have a nice plan for the Bulldogs coming off the open week.
 
Don't disagree with any of your handicapping.

I'm not betting any of the first three. I have wanted to bet Auburn all week, but my handicapping says the same thing your does so I am passing that game.

I don't disagree with your Florida/S Carolina conclusion, but I don't bet on teams with losing records and if there is a substantial defensive edge I want it on my side, so I'm passing that one.

Don't have a good feel for W Virginia. I have bet against them since the got in the Big 12 because I don't think they yet have the athletes on the roster, top to bottom, to stand up to the top teams. On the other hand, they have had the misfortune to have to play all four of the top Big 12 teams, three of them on the road so their record is a little misleading. I'm passing, but I think you have it handicapped correctly.

I am betting the other two and have the same concerns you do. Everything says N Carolina is going to win this game, but they have been unreliable for so many years--their opener against S Carolina was the essence of N Carolina football over the last decade or so--it is hard to trust them.

I hate to bet against Bama just as much as you do, but my numbers show the same things as yours. If Alabama does not come out flat I am in trouble, but most teams in this situation do come out flat.

Good luck, always enjoy your writeups,
 
Br@ssknux said:
5. @Mississippi State +8 v Alabama: Fading Alabama is probably bad for my health...it certainly was last week, but I think Mississippi State has quietly been putting together a nice year. They are 7-2 despite not really playing that well, including their game with LSU in which they outgained the Tigers and had a chance to win it in the past possession. Alabama is obviously good, but they struggle with QBs who can throw the ball, and Dak Prescott can definitely do that, having thrown for 300+ on LSU. Bama is coming off their own game with LSU, so there's a chance they could be still coming down from the high of that one. I like Dan Mullen, and I think he'll have a nice plan for the Bulldogs coming off the open week.
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I like Mississippi State +8 here. Personally I was hoping for +10. That said, just like last week, UNDER is the better play in my opinion.
 
You definitely could be right about the outcome, but I have to disagree about Florida having nothing to play for. With one loss they still control their own destiny as far as the 4 team playoff goes. Another loss for them & it won't matter if they beat both FSU & Alabama. I don't believe a two loss Florida team has a shot at getting in, although I seriously doubt they beat both FSU & Alabama anyway.
 
dg84 said:
You definitely could be right about the outcome, but I have to disagree about Florida having nothing to play for. With one loss they still control their own destiny as far as the 4 team playoff goes. Another loss for them & it won't matter if they beat both FSU & Alabama. I don't believe a two loss Florida team has a shot at getting in, although I seriously doubt they beat both FSU & Alabama anyway.
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Definitely a good point dg. I guess my point was that the fact they have already locked up the East takes away some of the urgency of the game for them from the standpoint of them coming out and blowing SC off the field. Saying they "don't have much to play for" was a bit of a mis-speak on my part. No argument there.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Don't disagree with any of your handicapping.

I'm not betting any of the first three. I have wanted to bet Auburn all week, but my handicapping says the same thing your does so I am passing that game.

I don't disagree with your Florida/S Carolina conclusion, but I don't bet on teams with losing records and if there is a substantial defensive edge I want it on my side, so I'm passing that one.

Don't have a good feel for W Virginia. I have bet against them since the got in the Big 12 because I don't think they yet have the athletes on the roster, top to bottom, to stand up to the top teams. On the other hand, they have had the misfortune to have to play all four of the top Big 12 teams, three of them on the road so their record is a little misleading. I'm passing, but I think you have it handicapped correctly.

I am betting the other two and have the same concerns you do. Everything says N Carolina is going to win this game, but they have been unreliable for so many years--their opener against S Carolina was the essence of N Carolina football over the last decade or so--it is hard to trust them.

I hate to bet against Bama just as much as you do, but my numbers show the same things as yours. If Alabama does not come out flat I am in trouble, but most teams in this situation do come out flat.

Good luck, always enjoy your writeups,
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Thanks as always for the thoughts TL. For the record, I don't like laying DD at all, but in UNC's case, I can't see how Miami stops them at all, as long as Williams doesn't put up a once per career bed shitting like he did in that SC game.
 
Jimmydafreak said:
I like Mississippi State +8 here. Personally I was hoping for +10. That said, just like last week, UNDER is the better play in my opinion.
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I gave up betting totals a couple years ago. I really don't even look at them. I know it's a mistake and there's a lot of value there but I my record was so bad on totals that I just had to stop throwing money away.
 
6. @Iowa State +14 v Oklahoma State: I think this is a very dangerous game for Okie State, coming off the great performance last week against TCU and with the look ahead to Baylor next week. These are the kind of games that "peripheral" undefeated teams lose...sandwich road game against an easily overlooked opponent that actually has some ability. Iowa State has a balanced offense and their defense has had it's moments, especially a couple weeks ago when they shut out Texas at home. OSU QB Mason Rudolph has been inconsistent this year, and he's coming off a great performance last week. OSU has a history of losing in Ames as well, as their best ever team from a few years ago(2011) lost outright as a 27 point favorite as an undefeated team in late November. If ISU puts together an inspired performance, and there's no reason they won't since this is their Super Bowl, they have a shot at pulling of a shocker.
 
7. Kansas State +5.5 @ Texas Tech: This K State squad is probably the worst of the collection of teams Bill Snyder has had since he returned to the sidelines, and the combination of their performance and the horrific on paper matchups have kept me off the "auto-play" train for them in recent weeks. Having said that, the matchup gets better for them this week, and we should also remember that the teams they've played over the past 5 weeks include Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU and Baylor, so a "class relief" situation is evident for them today. Texas Tech got off to a nice start this year but things have fallen off the rails for them. Their defense is awful, so there's no doubt the K State coaching staff will be able to exploit their many weaknesses. There's no doubt the TT offense has a solid advantage over the K State defense, but the same is true on the other side of the field. With a non-disastrous matchup on paper, we have to go back to the Bill Snyder well and ride with the avalanche of positive trends he brings. (15-6 ATS as road dog, 40-16 in conference, etc.
 
8. @Indiana +13 v Michigan: If this game was being played in early October, I probably wouldn't have a huge problem laying 13 with the Wolverines on the road here, but the defense has not looked the same in recent weeks, and they'll be facing an offense pretty much on par with or better than the two teams that outgained Michigan by an average of 160 yards per game in recent weeks (MSU, Minnesota...throw out the banged up, white flag waiving Rutgers Scarlet Knights of last week). There's really nothing to suggest that Indiana won't be competitive here as they've hung with everyone on their schedule when they've been healthy, including Ohio State and Iowa at home (chance to tie late in both cases) and Michigan state on the road, a game they led into the 4th quarter. They are as healthy as they've been all year now. If Michigan shows up with the defense that dominated people a month ago, they'll have a chance to cover this but if they look like they've looked recently, this game will be contested to the final whistle.
 
9. @Vanderbilt -3 v Kentucky: (Make sure it's 3) The fact that this will be the first time Vandy is favored all year against an FBS foe gives me pause, but I think the matchup is very favorable for them this week. You can make a case that this Vanderbilt defense is playing as well as any defense in the country right now, and I'm sure their confidence is at an all time high coming into a game in which they play Kentucky, a team completely leaking oil on the offensive side of the ball, and one of the few teams that Vandy has been able to play schoolyard bully to(3-1 the last 4 years with an average score of 26-7). Vandy's offense has been atrocious, but they don't have Florida or Houston's defense to contend with this week. Kentucky's defense is ranked 109th in defensive efficiency and 92nd against the run, so Vandy will have a shot to move the ball on them. The last time they were at home, they found a way to get 304 yards on a vastly superior Missouri defense. In that game their RBs ran for 4.5 yards per carry against the #5 rush defense in the country, so I think they can have success here. I don't suspect Kentucky will have much success doing anything on offense, as they are coming off a sub 200 yard performance last week, and Vandy is rolling on that side of the ball.
 
Agree on Indy. Don't understand the line. Iowa less than a TD last week and Iowa > Mich. Indy needs two wins and last two games on the road. Should see a max effort game. Mich really has not beaten anyone this year.
 
10. Arkansas +7.5 @ LSU: Tough spot for LSU to get up off the mat after their deflating loss to Bama last week, a game in which their offensive flaws were exposed as they failed to crack 200 yards of offense. They'll find the sledding quite a bit easier against the Hogs defense, but that won't be the case with the Hogs offense which is rolling right now. I originally had some hesitation looking at this one because LSU looks like they'll score at will on Arkansas on paper, but I had even worse concerns last week for them against Ole Miss, and they won that game outright, and the offensive matchup for them is better in this one. I give the Hogs a pretty solid edge when they have the ball, as they rank 11th in overall offensive efficiency and 13th in passer rating. This is a team that has already won outright at Tennessee and Mississippi, so I think they are certainly capable of keeping this one close, and frankly, I'm still not sure that LSU is as good as everyone previously thought they were. Good back door potential if needed as well, and the Hogs have covered 7 of the last 8 in this series.
 
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11. Oregon +9.5 @ Stanford: Given Oregon's performances on the road in recent years, this game just cannot be passed on. The line has a lot to do with the performance Oregon has given earlier in the year, but that was when their offense was not healthy and not sharp enough to bail out the defense. They now have Vernon Adams, Bralon Addison and Darren Carrington all healthy. We should also note that Stanford, though solid on offense, is not the same defense that we have come to appreciate over the years. (51st in defensive efficiency). As for the Ducks, this is the role that they have been almost unbeatable in. Consider: 12-2 ATS in their last 14 conference games, 21-6 ATS on the road since 2010 and a perfect 4-0 as a dog since 2010, winning 3 of those outright by an average of 12 points per game. Too many points to give for Stanford in this one. They'll have to play their best game of the year by far to cover that line.
 
Not that I disagree with your thoughts on the game, but miss St isn't off a bye, though they did play Missouri last Thursday so there is a extra rest component at play. Especially for the defense getting to rest playing mizzou's offense. I'm on the under and may play the TT unders as well. Agree with most of the others. Good luck today Brass
 
12. Oklahoma +3 @Baylor: There was more value in this one earlier in the week, but I still think Oklahoma is the play here with any amount of points. In past years I've been on Baylor in this game because their offense was significantly better than Oklahoma's and because Baylor's defense was actually among the top 20 in the country last year and the year before that. This year, things are a lot different. Baylor's defense is nowhere near the level that it's been, especially against the pass, and Oklahoma's offense is a juggernaut as well, a far cry from the Trevor Knight led attacks of recent vintage. Other than Baylor and maybe North Carolina, Oklahoma has the best numbers of any offense in the country...and you can make an argument that they are just as good as Baylor once you factor in strength of schedule.They are also as good as they've been in a LONG time on defense, ranked 5th in yards per play against , 2nd in defensive efficiency and 7th against the pass. They are by far the best defense Baylor will have faced, and their opportunistic nature will probably cause problems for Jarrett Stidham in his second career start. Throw in the fact that Oklahoma has been handled easily by the Bears the past few years and you have a revenge angle too. Just about every factor in this one points to the Sooners, so I'll take the points despite Baylor's Herculean ATS record as a home favorite.
 
gps_3 said:
Not that I disagree with your thoughts on the game, but miss St isn't off a bye, though they did play Missouri last Thursday so there is a extra rest component at play. Especially for the defense getting to rest playing mizzou's offense. I'm on the under and may play the TT unders as well. Agree with most of the others. Good luck today Brass
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Good catch GPS....Looked at the open date last Sat and forgot they played Thurs night. Thanks bro, your thoughts are very much valued.
 
13. Minnesota +10 @ Iowa: I like Iowa, but this is too many points to lay here, especially as the noose is likely tightening as they continue their undefeated season. Minnesota has somehow figured out the forward pass, as Leidner has been very effective in recent weeks against very good defenses. Minnesota's defense is also strong, so they won't be pushed around by the Hawkeyes. We also have to give Tracy Claeys credit as he plays his first game in the permanent role: They haven't lost ATS in any of his starts as head coach when he had all week to prepare.
 
14. New Mexico +30.5 @ Boise State: Since Boise has come into the Mountain west, they've been saddled with spreads like this, and they haven't been successful, as their 11-18 mark in conference as a home favorite suggests. This New Mexico squad is not great, but they aren't terrible. They beat Utah State outright as a 20 point dog last week and are 5-4 on the year, one win away from their first bowl in awhile. The run the option, so they chew clock. 30 points is just a silly line here. If Boise covers it, it will be because they got a shit load of turnovers and short drives, and I think UNM is better than the garden variety patsy that would fall victim to something like that.
 
15 Washington State +10 @ UCLA: I don't know what WAZZOU needs to do to get some respect around here. They've covered 6 games in a row, and in their last 5, they've outgained their opponents every week by an average margin of 113 yards per game. That includes @Oregon by 108, @Arizona by 148 and everybody's Pac 12 kingpin Stanford by 130 in a game they held the vaunted cardinal offense to 302 yards. Now they face UCLA, who is on a roll but has managed to lose to Arizona state at home get their doors blown off by Stanford and get outgained at home by 154 yards by Colorado. Do I think WAZZOU can find a way to compete in this game? Yeah, I guess I can.
 
Great stuff as usual BK, await your great write ups each week.
Really like Minn, Oregon, Ark, Wash St even on the ML and may add some others
Best to you today !
 
You have out-done yourself this week. Michigan D took some bits on DL, part of regression and no Glasgow this week. If not a cover, easy chance for backdoor to with that IU squad. GL and thanks for the content.
 
ksimpsc said:
Be@ss I am with you and hope you are right about the Cocks. Perry Orth can be great but he seriously scares me with the gift-wrapped apple turnovers he bakes from time to time. Elliot seems to know how to use him well though the offense in SC is nothing to write home about. The defense has been playing great the last few games. BOL this week
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Thanks Ksimp....Go Cocks! A good friend of mine is a South Carolina grad so I always root for them anyway.
 
Marlo, Egg, CHS, BAR, Timmy, Coolslaw.....Thanks for the kind words and BOL to all of you today. :shake:
 
Great stuff as usual, mr knucks. I have already played several of those and will,if you don't mind, tail you on Indy and I State. G L
 
I'm with you on Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Wash State. In fact, Oklahoma is a max bet for me. I think they win SU. It may be that Baylor has been on cruise control, but I never saw them on cruise control before once they got good enough to roll teams up. And I think Oklahoma will run the ball all day on them.

Washington State I'm not so sure on because I have no idea how UCLA will play. They are the most unpredictable college team to me. But I know Washington State will be motivated and will put up points. Half the Wazoo roster would have loved to even get a letter from UCLA, but didn't even rate that, so they will be ready to play.

I see Arkansas the same way you do (same way I see Bama/Miss State). I get the best QB, the best offense, and I think the most motivated team, plus points, so I'll take that any time.

Good luck on all of them.
 
TahoeLegend said:
I'm with you on Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Wash State. In fact, Oklahoma is a max bet for me. I think they win SU. It may be that Baylor has been on cruise control, but I never saw them on cruise control before once they got good enough to roll teams up. And I think Oklahoma will run the ball all day on them.

Washington State I'm not so sure on because I have no idea how UCLA will play. They are the most unpredictable college team to me. But I know Washington State will be motivated and will put up points. Half the Wazoo roster would have loved to even get a letter from UCLA, but didn't even rate that, so they will be ready to play.

I see Arkansas the same way you do (same way I see Bama/Miss State). I get the best QB, the best offense, and I think the most motivated team, plus points, so I'll take that any time.

Good luck on all of them.
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Good call Tahoe!!
 
13-3? Amazing work.:tiphat:

I was with you on some, but not enough. Wish I had just tailed, lol.

I felt really good about Stanford just straight mashing on Oregon. Didn't see all those big defensive breakdowns coming. I was on you with Wazzou but panicked when I saw Falk leave with a concussion and figured he was done for the day and hedged off half of my bet at the half. Oh well.
 
ksimpsc said:
Haha good man. They let us down with leaving the back door open, literally. Good week brother
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Shit...that was horrible. Florida was conceding that last possession and taylor takes it to the 1 yard line on 3rd and 8 on a draw. Bad beat there
 
Well 11-4 for the week. I seriously have to consider not even capping games scheduled before 3:30 EST because the night games have been treating me well. I might go back and check, but i'll bet that I'm about .500 on the noon games and .750 or better after that for the past several weeks. With apologies to VK, the inventor of the highly entertaining recap(when he did it), I hope you'll humor me as I do a recap because when I do this it helps me learn for the future.

Georgia +2: The game went the way I figured...limited offense. Got a bit lucky with the punt return TD, but I think Georgia was the right side there. I'll give myself a B

South Carolina +8: Box score shows a 404-202 yardage edge, so I really can't cry about it, but SC had the cover in hand until Taylor broke off that long run off the 3rd and 8 draw with 2 minutes left. Florida was conceding the punt there which would have likely sealed up the cover, but alas, it was not to be. That one's a C.

Texas +9: Can't cap for turnovers and Texas had 5 of them. They outgained WV by quite a bit, and usually that will at least get you a cover at +9. I remain unimpressed with Skyler Howard. Grade: B

UNC -13: A complete demolition by what might be the best offense in the country. Grade A

Miss State +8: I have to stop the sadomasochistic behavior of continuing to bet against Alabama. Capping and logic do not apply in their games. Pick 6 INTs and huge plays on offense do apply. The end result is they win games by a lot of points. This happens regardless of what I think will happen in said games. That is all. I take my loss and go home. Grade F

Iowa State +14: The game played out pretty much how I wrote it up, and the Clones almost got the outright victory: Grade A

Vandy -3: This game clearly could have gone either way but Vandy found a way to make it happen. Vandy did run it on them pretty well, but UK had much more success than I figured they would. Grade C

K State +5.5: 600+ yards allowed, outgained by 200+. No way 5 was enough points for this talent-less outfit. I remain in love with Bill Snyder's acumen but that auto play stuff for him will sadly have to end until some athletes appear on their roster again. Grade F

Indiana +13: Hoosiers hung tough and should have won outright. +13 was plenty. Grade A

Arkansas +7.5: Game was never in doubt. 17 point outright winner. Grade A

Oregon +9.5: Anyone that bets against Oregon when they are on the road should have their head examined. Oregon only ran 48 plays but when you're gaining 9 yards per play, you don't need a lot of plays. Grade A

Minnesota +10: Nice backdoor by the Gophers after it appeared that Iowa had front-doored it. I was due one of those. Minny hung pretty well most of the game though..probably the right side. Grade B

New Mexico +30.5: This line was just absurd...it probably should have been in the 14 range. Easiest win I can ever remember. Congrats to bob Davie, always a likable fellow. Grade A+

Washington State: Even if you guaranteed me UCLA would have played their best game, I still would have taken the Cougs, and UCLA seldom plays their best game. Grade A

All in all an enjoyable week. Thanks to everyone for their input. One of these weeks I'll be able to get started earlier but these nutty kids and employment get in the way. It's gonna be interesting to see where the rankings shake out because a lot of stuff happened this week. Very entertaining week for sure.
 
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