Week 11 NFL Upset Alert: Hop Off The Dallas and Houston Hype Trains
Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers
Sunday, November 19, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte
Dallas Is A Popular Bet
A superficial consideration of this game can easily cast Dallas as an easy bet.
The Cowboys are coming off a game in which they scored 49 points, so many bettors will superficially think that they'll easily cover the spread against a Carolina team that often struggles to reach 20 points.
Dak On The Road
A key detail about Dallas' tremendous and great-looking win last week is that it took place in Dallas.
Whereas Dak threw for 404 yards and four touchdowns against the Giants last week at home, in Week 1 he threw for 143 yards and zero touchdowns against the same Giants on the road.
This disparity typifies Dak's struggle to perform nearly as well on the road as he does at home.
His passer rating is 124.2 at home and 87.2 on the road.
It's not like Dallas is coincidentally competing against easier teams on the road.
Whereas he thrived at home against a Rams team that ranks 14th in pass defense, he performed terribly against a 49ers defense that ranks 15th against the pass.
Carolina's Pass Defense
The Panthers are good at limiting opposing production from quarterbacks.
For example, upstart Houston quarterback CJ Stroud threw for 140 yards on 24 attempts in Carolina.
Since their bye week, the Panthers have held all three opposing quarterbacks to 162 yards or fewer.
While Indianapolis and Chicago's quarterbacks are certainly worse than Stroud, in the modern NFL 162 is quite a low total.
Overall, Carolina ranks sixth in pass defense.
It is unrealistic to expect Dallas to cover such a large spread without relying on the sort of success from Dak that he displays in home games.
Dallas' Defense
To have a great chance at winning this game, Carolina will simply need to reach its average point total, 17.
Given Dak's struggles, Dallas spends a lot less time sustaining possession in road games.
As a consequence, its defense gets tired.
Its run defense will be especially problematic given the injury to key run-stopping linebacker Leighton Vander Esch, whose run defending abilities are evident in the metrics, such as his stop rate.
Carolina's Offense
Accordingly, this will be a great game
for running back Chuba Hubbard.
Hubbard's success will open things up for quarterback Bryce Young, who owns the NFL's eighth-best completion percentage on play-action passes.
The main argument against Carolina's offense is that its wide receiver corps is bad and doesn't help Young out, but the extra attention that Dallas will have to devote to Hubbard will make things easier for Panthers pass-catchers.
Best Bet: Panthers +10.5 at -110 with Bet365 & Panthers ML at +425 with Bet365
Arizona Cardinals vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, November 19, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium in Houston
Kyler Is Back
On Sunday, Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray had a nice return from his eleven-month injury-induced absence.
Facing an Atlanta defense that after facing Arizona dropped to tenth against the pass, Murray threw for 249 yards and ran for 33.
Houston's Pass Defense
Houston will pose a much softer test for Murray than Atlanta did.
The Texans rank 24th in pass defense.
They repeatedly make subpar or bad quarterbacks look great.
Atlanta's Desmond Ridder, for example, who has an 84.1 passer rating on the season, achieved a 111.2 passer rating against the Texans.
Tampa Bay's Baker Mayfield similarly achieved a 119.4 passer rating against the Texans, his highest in any game this season.
Trey McBride
Kyler's favorite target is his tight end -- which isn't surprising in view of the extent to which he involved Zach Ertz whenever DeAndre Hopkins was injured.
McBride has been excellent. Previously strong against Baltimore, he caught eight passes for 131 yards last week against Atlanta.
He'll succeed against a Houston defense that tight ends thrive against when they want to -- Atlanta's tight ends, for example, combined for 14 receptions and 176 yards against the Texans.
McBride's comfort will make Murray extra comfortable on Sunday.
Arizona's Pass Defense
Arizona matches up well against Houston's offense because the latter is strongest when passing the ball.
The Cardinals rank 11th against the pass, which is noteworthy given the extent to which high-level wide receivers have thrived against them.
For example, they allowed Cincinnati's Joe Burrow to reach 317 passing yards on 46 attempts, but star Ja'Marr Chase accounted for 192 of those yards.
Without facing a guy like Chase -- Houston's wide receiving corps is not nearly so talented -- Arizona's pass defense will easily be top-ten-caliber.
The Spot
An examination of the matchup already suggests that oddsmakers are overrating the Texans.
The situation justifies all the more coincidence in the Cardinals.
Whereas they are determined to boost Murray's trade value with wins, the Texans are in an awful sandwich spot.
They could experience a let-down after upsetting the Bengals, and they could be looking ahead to their showdown next week against the AFC South-leading Jaguars.
But even a fully focused Texans team would lose to underrated Arizona.
Best Bet: Cardinals +4 at -110 with Bet365 & Cardinals ML at +170 with Bet365
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, November 19, 2023 at 4:25 p.m. ET at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York
Buffalo's Offense
Offensively, the Bills are dysfunctional and mistake-prone -- so much so that they just fired their offensive coordinator.
Since his top-level performance against Miami, quarterback Josh Allen has declined tremendously.
In the six games since playing Miami, he has thrown at least one interception in each one.
His passer rating was at least 6.6 points below his season average in four of those six games.
He failed to approach 200 yards in two of them.
Jets Pass Defense
The Jets are such a team that Allen could struggle severely against, similar to his Week 1 debacle, in which he yielded a 62.7 passer rating in Buffalo's loss to these Jets.
With a strong cornerback group, but also a scheme that ensures success even when their cornerbacks are injured, the Jets own the third-best pass defense.
Their strength in pass defense makes them match up well against a Buffalo offense that wants to be most dangerous passing the ball.
Exploiting Buffalo's Injury-Ridden Defense
Buffalo is missing key players on defense, including its top cornerback Tre White and key run-stopping personnel, such as the intelligent play-recognizer Matt Milano.
The Jets have valuable playmakers at wide receiver and at running back who will help them produce points.
While much is made of their lack of scoring, the Jets have typically reached a point total that would suffice to beat the Bills on Sunday.
In their last game, the Jets achieved 365 total yards of offense, which shows that they are bound to score more points than they've been doing.
Breece Hall is capable of making big plays on the ground. He and Garrett Wilson will help out Zach Wilson as a passer.
Wilson's ongoing consistency suggests that he will exceed his Week 1 total against the Bills that anyhow sufficed for a Jets win.
Because this game is in Buffalo and because playing in Buffalo won't help the Bills' offense, oddsmakers have posted a spread that will be especially easy for the Jets to cover.
Best Bet: Jets +7 at -110 with Bet365 & Jets ML at +255 with Bet365
Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers
Sunday, November 19, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte
Dallas Is A Popular Bet
A superficial consideration of this game can easily cast Dallas as an easy bet.
The Cowboys are coming off a game in which they scored 49 points, so many bettors will superficially think that they'll easily cover the spread against a Carolina team that often struggles to reach 20 points.
Dak On The Road
A key detail about Dallas' tremendous and great-looking win last week is that it took place in Dallas.
Whereas Dak threw for 404 yards and four touchdowns against the Giants last week at home, in Week 1 he threw for 143 yards and zero touchdowns against the same Giants on the road.
This disparity typifies Dak's struggle to perform nearly as well on the road as he does at home.
His passer rating is 124.2 at home and 87.2 on the road.
It's not like Dallas is coincidentally competing against easier teams on the road.
Whereas he thrived at home against a Rams team that ranks 14th in pass defense, he performed terribly against a 49ers defense that ranks 15th against the pass.
Carolina's Pass Defense
The Panthers are good at limiting opposing production from quarterbacks.
For example, upstart Houston quarterback CJ Stroud threw for 140 yards on 24 attempts in Carolina.
Since their bye week, the Panthers have held all three opposing quarterbacks to 162 yards or fewer.
While Indianapolis and Chicago's quarterbacks are certainly worse than Stroud, in the modern NFL 162 is quite a low total.
Overall, Carolina ranks sixth in pass defense.
It is unrealistic to expect Dallas to cover such a large spread without relying on the sort of success from Dak that he displays in home games.
Dallas' Defense
To have a great chance at winning this game, Carolina will simply need to reach its average point total, 17.
Given Dak's struggles, Dallas spends a lot less time sustaining possession in road games.
As a consequence, its defense gets tired.
Its run defense will be especially problematic given the injury to key run-stopping linebacker Leighton Vander Esch, whose run defending abilities are evident in the metrics, such as his stop rate.
Carolina's Offense
Accordingly, this will be a great game
for running back Chuba Hubbard.
Hubbard's success will open things up for quarterback Bryce Young, who owns the NFL's eighth-best completion percentage on play-action passes.
The main argument against Carolina's offense is that its wide receiver corps is bad and doesn't help Young out, but the extra attention that Dallas will have to devote to Hubbard will make things easier for Panthers pass-catchers.
Best Bet: Panthers +10.5 at -110 with Bet365 & Panthers ML at +425 with Bet365
Arizona Cardinals vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, November 19, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium in Houston
Kyler Is Back
On Sunday, Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray had a nice return from his eleven-month injury-induced absence.
Facing an Atlanta defense that after facing Arizona dropped to tenth against the pass, Murray threw for 249 yards and ran for 33.
Houston's Pass Defense
Houston will pose a much softer test for Murray than Atlanta did.
The Texans rank 24th in pass defense.
They repeatedly make subpar or bad quarterbacks look great.
Atlanta's Desmond Ridder, for example, who has an 84.1 passer rating on the season, achieved a 111.2 passer rating against the Texans.
Tampa Bay's Baker Mayfield similarly achieved a 119.4 passer rating against the Texans, his highest in any game this season.
Trey McBride
Kyler's favorite target is his tight end -- which isn't surprising in view of the extent to which he involved Zach Ertz whenever DeAndre Hopkins was injured.
McBride has been excellent. Previously strong against Baltimore, he caught eight passes for 131 yards last week against Atlanta.
He'll succeed against a Houston defense that tight ends thrive against when they want to -- Atlanta's tight ends, for example, combined for 14 receptions and 176 yards against the Texans.
McBride's comfort will make Murray extra comfortable on Sunday.
Arizona's Pass Defense
Arizona matches up well against Houston's offense because the latter is strongest when passing the ball.
The Cardinals rank 11th against the pass, which is noteworthy given the extent to which high-level wide receivers have thrived against them.
For example, they allowed Cincinnati's Joe Burrow to reach 317 passing yards on 46 attempts, but star Ja'Marr Chase accounted for 192 of those yards.
Without facing a guy like Chase -- Houston's wide receiving corps is not nearly so talented -- Arizona's pass defense will easily be top-ten-caliber.
The Spot
An examination of the matchup already suggests that oddsmakers are overrating the Texans.
The situation justifies all the more coincidence in the Cardinals.
Whereas they are determined to boost Murray's trade value with wins, the Texans are in an awful sandwich spot.
They could experience a let-down after upsetting the Bengals, and they could be looking ahead to their showdown next week against the AFC South-leading Jaguars.
But even a fully focused Texans team would lose to underrated Arizona.
Best Bet: Cardinals +4 at -110 with Bet365 & Cardinals ML at +170 with Bet365
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, November 19, 2023 at 4:25 p.m. ET at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York
Buffalo's Offense
Offensively, the Bills are dysfunctional and mistake-prone -- so much so that they just fired their offensive coordinator.
Since his top-level performance against Miami, quarterback Josh Allen has declined tremendously.
In the six games since playing Miami, he has thrown at least one interception in each one.
His passer rating was at least 6.6 points below his season average in four of those six games.
He failed to approach 200 yards in two of them.
Jets Pass Defense
The Jets are such a team that Allen could struggle severely against, similar to his Week 1 debacle, in which he yielded a 62.7 passer rating in Buffalo's loss to these Jets.
With a strong cornerback group, but also a scheme that ensures success even when their cornerbacks are injured, the Jets own the third-best pass defense.
Their strength in pass defense makes them match up well against a Buffalo offense that wants to be most dangerous passing the ball.
Exploiting Buffalo's Injury-Ridden Defense
Buffalo is missing key players on defense, including its top cornerback Tre White and key run-stopping personnel, such as the intelligent play-recognizer Matt Milano.
The Jets have valuable playmakers at wide receiver and at running back who will help them produce points.
While much is made of their lack of scoring, the Jets have typically reached a point total that would suffice to beat the Bills on Sunday.
In their last game, the Jets achieved 365 total yards of offense, which shows that they are bound to score more points than they've been doing.
Breece Hall is capable of making big plays on the ground. He and Garrett Wilson will help out Zach Wilson as a passer.
Wilson's ongoing consistency suggests that he will exceed his Week 1 total against the Bills that anyhow sufficed for a Jets win.
Because this game is in Buffalo and because playing in Buffalo won't help the Bills' offense, oddsmakers have posted a spread that will be especially easy for the Jets to cover.
Best Bet: Jets +7 at -110 with Bet365 & Jets ML at +255 with Bet365
