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Week 11 (Nov 11) CFB Picks and Discussion

RJ Esq

Prick Since 1974
2006-07 CFB YTD
56-38-3 (59.6%) +34.92 Units

Just treading water last few weeks. 5-5 last week, -1.4 units in juice. Sad thing was that it coulda been a winning week if I did not add 2 big juice plays that both lost.

This week, we'll see what happens. Lines are shading towards dogs against big ATS winners (Hawaii, BYU, etc.).

All plays for $250 unless stated:

Picks

Nevada -28 (-117)
Texas -16.5 (-120)
Minny pk (-105)
Troy -4 (-105)
MTSU -4 (-113)
Navy -12.5 (-105) ($500)
NC State +18 (-101)

Leans
 
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Weekly Affirmation from CFN.com

Zemek's Weekly Affirmation - 2006

By Matt Zemek
CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Nov 6, 2006

Point number one: The Big East game of the year was a failure. Point two: no one outside the Big East, with the sole exception of Ohio State, is succeeding. It should make all college football fans pause for a quiet moment of reflection.


By Matthew Zemek

The ballyhooed battle between West Virginia and Louisville was--to put it plainly--a poorly-played game. There's just no getting around (or over, or under, or through) that reality. The number of fumbles, really stupid personal fouls, and inept defensive plays (memo to West Virginia linebackers: you might want to respect Louisville's passing game more than its Michael Bush-less running attack, especially if you want to shut down big plays) was too great to consider 'Eers-Cards a well-played game. Was the Big East primetime feast an entertaining game? Heck, yes. Did the two teams show considerable guts and gallantry? Absolutely. Did the game make for great television--despite ESPN's infuriating insistence on multiple celebrity interviews inside the broadcast booth? Yes, it did... in the end. (Question: why can't Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit be allowed by their bosses to do a football game--or a football preview show, for that matter--without any corporate intrusions or other horrible manifestations of brain-dead executive decision making that limit their journalistic freedom?) But none of those realities mean the game was played at a high level.

In most January bowl games--the games West Virginia and Louisville were shooting for on Thursday night--mistakes litter the gridiron. These mounds of miscues are mostly the result of a five- or six-week break and the rust that accumulates during that period of time. In a regular-season atmosphere, however, with only eleven days in between games (twelve for West Virginia, who played Connecticut on a Friday nearly two weeks before playing Louisville), supreme sloppiness should not emerge. But for the first 36 minutes of 'Eers-Cards, the top teams in the Big East displayed a nervous, flop sweat-filled, fumbling and stumbling brand of football that elite teams should not reveal on a high-stakes occasion. This game produced the bizarre and the brutal: stacks of dead-ball personal foul penalties, one after the other; three fumbles in a span of less than two minutes; and at least three separate instances in which Louisville ball carriers, running in the open field for touchdowns (or at least, for huge gains inside the West Virginia 10), fell flat on their faces. Louisville did win, but its roster--with the sole exception of Brian Brohm--was dominated by nerves. The Mountaineers, though, were felled by the ol' adrenaline to an even greater degree. In the end, the difference in this game was clear: West Virginia made the more damaging kinds of mistakes. While the Cards dropped passes, committed penalties, and stumbled on the ground in the first half, the Mountaineers fumbled balls and shanked punts in the second half. Turnovers are worth more than penalties, and second-half mistakes loom larger than first-half failures. As a result, Louisville got more cheap points and more second-half momentum. Once the first-half nerves wore off, Louisville elevated its game while West Virginia dug itself a hole that proved to be much too deep. Mistakes--not excellence--defined this game. As such, it wasn't played with notable distinction or quality. One can understand why lots of national college football fans are trying (not succeeding, but trying) to laugh the Big East off the stage.

But this is where the trajectory of the conversation takes a sharp turn.

Those who want to make fun of the Big East after the mistake festival in Louisville should look at their own conferences and teams. Except for the people of Columbus, Ohio--and even their team (albeit on just one isolated and decidedly rare occasion) didn't play great this past weekend--no one has any right to paint Louisville (or West Virginia, for that matter) in a particularly negative light.

Want to rip Bobby Petrino's Cards or Rich Rodriguez's Mountaineers for all the mistakes (and bad defense) they displayed on Thursday? Well, then: what about Michigan's escape--yes, escape--against Ball State? What about Florida beating Vanderbilt--an improved but still deficient team--by only six points? What about Auburn not being able to ring up a huge number on Arkansas State (yes, I know players are being rested for bigger battles, but still... it's Arkansas State...)? What about LSU continuing to make mistakes, despite a level of talent that exceeds what Louisville and West Virginia bring to the table? What about Wisconsin playing uninspiring football, even while winning? If you want to bash the depth of the Big East because Pittsburgh lost at South Florida, well, you also have to knock the depth of the Big Ten after Iowa's embarrassing home loss to Northwestern. Similarly, you have to shoot down the staying power of the SEC after Alabama's and Georgia's newsworthy losses on Saturday.

If you've been reading this column all year, you know what's been said: if the Big East isn't great shakes (which is true), the conference is hardly alone. All leagues are showing the same tendencies, the same inclinations toward mediocrity that didn't exist several seasons ago in this sport. If you think the Big East has bad football, has the rest of the country produced an appreciably better product? That question simply cannot be answered in the affirmative. Michigan's wins over Iowa and Wisconsin look less impressive with each week, as the Hawkeyes and Badgers slog through their schedules (Wisconsin has simply been more successful at pulling through under adverse circumstances). The SEC's top teams have markedly inconsistent offenses, independent of the good defenses that league has to offer. When the fourth-ranked team in America (Florida) puts its fans through the mental meat-grinder in the fourth quarter each week, you know that high-level football isn't on display. The Big XII is another picture of inconsistency, as its second-best team--Oklahoma--is set for a huge year... in 2007. The Northern Division champion (almost certainly Nebraska) will be saddled with at least three losses, possibly four. The ACC is laughably bad, a conference that actually has generated separation from every other BCS league... at the bottom, that is. The only conference that has yet to show its full and true colors is the Pac-10, but that's only because the league's biggest games have been backloaded in 2006. Up til now, Cal and USC have wobbled on multiple occasions, while Oregon has been the biggest yo-yo of an outfit in all of college football this year. Washington State, upon gaining third place in the league and a No. 25 national ranking, showed the world how stable and mature a program it is by losing at home to a very mediocre Arizona club.

If you want good football, clear points of differentiation among top teams, and a well-defined pecking order among the six BCS conferences, we're sorry: this just isn't your year. Moreover, it's been pretty much the same story the previous few seasons as well. If you want to rip Louisville, West Virginia and the rest of the Big East, you had better be willing to criticize your team or conference for its own manifest and major shortcomings. Ohio State fans get the only free pass in this whole discussion, for the sluggish win at Illinois was not representative of a typical Buckeye effort this season.

So with that out of the way, let's now focus on the teams chasing Ohio State for a berth in Glendale. What emerges is a series of matchups that, quite frankly, would be more entertaining than an eventual national title game.

Michigan, Florida, and the newly-triumphant Louisville Cardinals are now front and center in the chase for a ticket to the Desert Southwest on January 8. Naturally, these three programs want to hear the mariachi bands and soak up the rays in the Valley of the Sun, but from a football lover's standpoint, it would be more attractive to see them play each other... and not Ohio State.

Michigan and Florida would make for a very interesting football game. Both of these teams rely on defense first, and they both have veteran quarterbacks who, while being respected team leaders, are nevertheless beset by inconsistencies. What would ultimately make a Wolverine-Gator showdown so special is the fact that these two teams--with similar philosophies on the surface--flesh out their goals and desires in noticeably different ways. Michigan runs the ball in the classic smashmouth style familiar to the Big Ten and its Upper Midwest slobberknocker heritage. Florida tries to run the ball with an element of surprise, a greater reliance on angled blocking, and the more frequent use of wideouts... not to mention a quarterback shuffle. Even while some folks would view this hypothetical matchup as a battle of like-minded teams, it would still be--in many respects--a contrast of largely opposed styles. That makes for a fascinating football study.

But if you want contrasts in styles on a football field, Louisville would satisfy your craving to a much larger degree, and this is where the discussion gets particularly interesting.

It's pretty undeniable that in a battle of defenses, Michigan and Florida would swamp Louisville, hands down. There's absolutely no question that Louisville's defense would put the Cards at a huge disadvantage against Michigan or Florida. The physicality of a Big Ten or SEC front line would challenge Bobby Petrino's team and tax the extent of its manpower. Louisville's offense--which had virtually unlimited freedom against West Virginia's swiss cheese defense--would get punched in the mouth on some occasions by the defenses residing in Ann Arbor and Gainesville. If Michigan and Florida were to play Louisville, those old-money schools would know where their advantage would exist: up front, in the trenches, and especially on defense.

This point of comparison--however striking it may be--does not mean, though, that Louisville would not be able to compete with Michigan or Florida. Anything but.

While the Wolverines and Gators have the superior defenses, Louisville possesses something that's lacking at almost all of the 119 programs who have played Division I-A football this season: truly elite quarterbacking. Not just good, decent or competent field generalship, but awesome, off-the-charts excellence under center. This is where the Cards (and, had they won, the Mountaineers of West Virginia) could make a very loud argument about their credentials as a team worthy of playing for a national championship.

Given the fact that so much mediocre college football is being played in the United States this year, it's more than a little significant if a team has a quarterback with broad shoulders who can carry the load while making game-changing plays. Brian Brohm is one of those few signal callers who can make a huge difference in a game. Knock the West Virginia defense all you want (you should--just not too much), but Brohm made noticeably good plays against the Mountaineers. In a high-stakes game, Brohm came up with unusually exceptional displays of quality at football's most pressure-packed position. Brohm's footwork is better than Troy Smith's...not in terms of pure running ability, of course, but in terms of moving around in the pocket and sensing pressure. Against West Virginia, Brohm regularly made those slight and instantaneous baby steps that enabled him to get squared up for his throws, which were consistently on target. While Smith is a master of making something out of a broken play, and spinning out of pressure with his superb athleticism and speed, Brohm--much more of an old-school quarterback--has the best pocket presence of any signal caller in America. He rarely if ever left the pocket against the Mountaineers, but even when his protective cup was on the brink of caving, Brohm re-aligned his feet with short but telling movements to prepare his whole body for the specific throw he needed to make in a given situation. And on the few occasions when a West Virginia pass rusher got to him, Brohm was sometimes able to use his upper-body strength to shrug off the pursuit and then calmly fire a dart to one of his able (though sometimes wrong-footed) pass catchers. Brohm put on a clinic, and even if he had to face a defense of Michigan's or Florida's quality, the Louisville quarterback would make his share of plays. Brohm's defense would endanger his team's chances in a hypothetical matchup against the Wolverines or Gators. Brohm's own abilities would enable Louisville to play those two teams on very even terms.

If Louisville played Michigan or Florida, the contrast in styles would be delicious. In either matchup, you'd have a world-class quarterback against an elite defense. You'd have Bobby Petrino's blackboard mastery against the speed and power of the English Majors or Florida's ballhawking outfit. Cards-Wolverines and Cards-Gators are two matchups that would be much more intriguing and revealing than any matchup involving Ohio State. This isn't a knock on the Buckeyes; actually, it's just the opposite. Ohio State has too much balance, talent and quarterbacking quality--all of the ingredients we've been discussing here--to suffer in a comparison with Louisville, Michigan or Florida. It's the No. 2, 3 and 4 teams in America who would play the best and most entertaining games in college football this season. But since we have the BCS, none of those matchups are likely to happen.

If you think that elite Big East quarterbacking begins and ends with Brian Brohm, however, you're sadly mistaken. Part of this week's column simply has to give special recognition to the losing quarterback in the West Virginia-Louisville game. Even in defeat, Mountaineer signal caller Pat White showed that he belongs in the same conversation as his Big East counterpart, not to mention Mr. Smith in Columbus.

Here's what you have to understand if you're skeptical of the Big East and find yourself particularly inclined to rip the quality of that league's defenses: along with Brohm, Pat White is one of those rare quarterbacks who doesn't come along every year. Along with Smith and Brohm--and ahead of Brady Quinn--White is one of the three truly elite quarterbacks in the country. Quinn and two Colts--Brennan and McCoy--are a shade below the elite tier, which is reserved only for the most dynamic field generals in the United States. Pat White belongs in that select football trinity, along with his counterparts from Ohio State and Louisville.

While Smith is the ultimate hybrid quarterback--a player who can stand back and fire in old-school fashion, but then bust loose on improv plays with equal effectiveness--his Big East brethren stand on the opposite sides of the divide. Brohm, as mentioned above, is a classic quarterback cut from traditional cloth. Pat White, on the other hand, is a one-man tornado who brings a little bit of three college football legends--Mike Vick, Tommie Frazier and Jamelle Holieway--to the gridiron whenever he straps on the pads. White's unique combination of skills only reinforces the point that quarterbacks like him don't come along every Autumn. Yes, Louisville's defense--along with others in the Big East--has marked deficiencies, but Pat White is so good that he'd be able to undress elite defenses as well. Just ask Georgia about the events of January 2 in Atlanta.

The quarterback White comes closest to imitating is Michael Vick. Vick had sick speed and a rifle lefty arm. White, who throws fewer deep balls than the Hokie superstar unleashed in his Blacksburg career, hasn't had his arm showcased to a similar degree. In terms of pure speed, however, White is every bit the blur that Vick was. He's a similarly superb specimen who could run with Vick all day.

But before you think White is all specimen and little substance, think again. Like Frazier, the gritty and resourceful uber-warrior who could take hits and absorb contact, White possesses more than a little toughness. When Steve Slaton left Thursday night's Louisville game due to an injury, White--in a very revealing display of his poise and willpower--managed to carry the WVU offense on his back. The Mountaineers might have moved the ball more slowly, but they still weren't stopped, and they still rang up points. White's accomplishments without his trusty backfield mate proved to be a revelation... at least for this columnist. White's not just the driver of a high-octane offense, a roaring Ferrari of an outfit. No, with Slaton out, White had the gumption and composure needed to steer a beaten but reliable pickup truck to paydirt. White isn't just a pretty face with the blinding speed. He has Frazier's uncanny ability to take punches and still prevail.

Finally, White also merits a legitimate comparison with Holieway, regarded by many as the greatest in a long line of decorated wishbone quarterbacks at Oklahoma in the Barry Switzer halcyon days. In Rich Rodriguez's system, which--one should know--validated its credentials on Thursday night against Louisville (by showing skeptics that no, the 'Eers did not need to pass the ball more in the pre-Louisville portion of their schedule), White needs to make the same quick reads and employ the same slick ballhandling that Holieway used in the mid-1980s with the Sooners. Once again, White's ability to excel without Slaton in the fold offers convincing proof of his greatness as a masterful Mountaineer unlike any other. Even when hamstrung, this dandy from Daphne, Ala., can excel in ways few quarterbacks can. His ability to consistently move his offense even without Steve Slaton indicated that, much like Holieway roughly 20 years ago, Pat White possesses the craftiness and ballhandling ability that can keep a defense guessing, even when it knows whose hands will be touching the pigskin on virtually every snap. Much as Holieway couldn't be stopped by defenses who keyed on him, White--the nerve center of the West Virginia offense--consistently runs wild even though opposing defenses and coordinators exhaust all their intellectual and creative powers in the attempt to render him impotent. That's true dominance.

If there's a neat and tidy way of encapsulating Pat White's signature brilliance on a football field, it can be found in this simple statement: plainly put, Pat White breaks all the rules. He doesn't need to throw often to throw well--which flies in the face of conventional football wisdom (and Brian Brohm's season, which needed some rusty tuneups against Cincinnati and Syracuse before the breakout return to point-producing potency against West Virginia). He doesn't need a running back to be effective as a runner. He doesn't have to throw deep to make a huge impact on a game. He doesn't have to stay close to the line of scrimmage to run for a first down (against Louisville, he was 20 yards behind the line on a play when he easily--easily!--coasted to a first down on a 3rd and 6 scramble). Whatever the proverbial "book" says about quarterbacking can be thrown out the window when Pat White is involved. The West Virginia sensation--along with Brian Brohm and Troy Smith--is one of the three quarterbacks who stand above every other signal caller in college football. White alone is a huge reason why the Mountaineers--like the Cardinals--could hold their own in a big game against Michigan, Florida, or other top ten teams not called the Buckeyes.

In other news, a brief survey of this past Saturday's games brought to mind a very simple truth that is frequently forgotten in our collective attempts to make sense of the college football world: while players must make plays and coaches have to know their stuff, the bounce of the ball can trump everything else.

Look at life through the eyes of Arkansas head coach Houston Nutt in order to gain fresh appreciation for this unpredictable but undeniable part of the sport. Nutt knows all about bad bounces... in his very first season at the helm, a bad bounce involving a Clint Stoerner fumble at Tennessee derailed his team's chances of winning an SEC title and making a BCS bowl game. In subsequent years, crazy pigskin rolls, spins and spirals--usually involving a gifted but volatile quarterback named Matt Jones--put Nutt on rollercoaster rides that screamed for Maalox. Last season, with a lot of inexperience under center, Nutt coached far better than his team's 4-7 record would ever indicate. Arkansas lost four of its seven games by a combined total of 15 points; with just one better bounce, or one improved instinctual play by any of his green and untested players in each of those four games, the trajectory of the Hogs' season--and the nature of all the opinions attached to it--would have been profoundly different. Nutt has escaped the hot seat this year, but the unpredictable bounces of the ball had a lot to do with his lack of job security entering the 2006 campaign.

Last season, the Hogs--despite a weak passing game--still ran the ball extremely well, a testament to Nutt's ability to teach the running game. They're doing the same things this year, but now, the ball is bouncing in Houston Nutt's favor, and suddenly, the once-embattled coach isn't so embattled anymore. Nine times out of ten (okay, maybe eight), fragile bang-bang plays are breaking in Arkansas' direction. Saturday against South Carolina, the Hogs built a 20-point lead because every significant mano-a-mano battle for a jump ball or any vigorously contested pass went to the Razorbacks. And after one of the few occasions when Arkansas didn't win a 50-50 ball--a play in which Hog receiver Marcus Monk couldn't hang onto a pass in the end zone--Houston Nutt's team managed to score a touchdown on a 3rd and goal delay draw from the 15-yard line. It was that kind of a night for the Hogs until Carolina mounted a late charge. However, the deficit--and the odds--were too great for the Gamecocks to overcome. Lots of fragile bounces--the same bounces Houston Nutt has been lacking over the past several years--finally enabled Arkansas fans to say, "Houston, we have no problems." Amazing what a college football soap opera--"As the Pigskin Turns"--can do for the fortunes of a team, a coach, and a fan base.

South Carolina, meanwhile, is experiencing the negative side of this cruel and fickle dynamic.

Much as Houston Nutt wasn't a deficient teacher of the running game last year--even though he lacked fortuitous bounces of the ball--so it also is that Steve Spurrier hasn't lost his ability to teach quarterbacks in 2006. What he's done with Syvelle Newton stands as a typical example of Spurrier's legendary ability to "coach 'em up real good." Moreover, the Carolina coach had backup quarterback Blake Mitchell ready to come off the bench and excel in ways that exceeded anything Mitchell produced last season. But for all of Spurrier's skills as a developer of quarterbacks, his team isn't winning the way it did last season. For two straight weeks, the Gamecocks have allowed crucial touchdowns because members of their secondary have had interceptions clang off their fingers in the end zone, only to land in the mitts of opposing receivers. Despite top-shelf play calling from Spurrier, Carolina backs and receivers have committed huge blunders in all of their losses (Georgia, Auburn, Tennessee, Arkansas). In almost all of these cases, the mistakes had nothing to do with execution and everything to do with nerves and a general lack of patient concentration. Gamecock players--on both sides of the ball--have been in position to make plays all year, and that's a function of largely sound coaching. The ball, though, is bouncing off fingers instead of resting in breadbaskets. Carolina coaches can yell at their players until they're blue in the face, but at some point, the resurgence of the Gamecock program will simply come down to fending off the nerves and doing the little things that defend against the dangers of the big, bad bounce of the ball. Last season, South Carolina played very poorly but beat an Arkansas team that outrushed the Gamecocks by a 4-to-1 margin. This time around, the Roosters displayed exponentially greater playmaking capabilities, but fell short against the Razorbacks because they didn't finish a seemingly countless number of 50-50 plays that were waiting to be made. Sometimes, the bounce of the ball--and the simple but very underrated ability to guard against it--can make all the difference between a great year and a bad one. That needs to be kept in mind in a world where coaches come under such withering and regular scrutiny for reasons much more complex than the bounces taken by a ball with a very weird shape.

Want to know who else has been victimized (or helped) by the bounce of the ball this season? Well, just ask all the teams--and they are many--who suffered (or prospered) because of horrible instant replay review decisions. Ask Boston College about the kindness of the pigskin in the Eagles' crucial loss to Wake Forest. Consult LSU about the nature of the bad bounces and football flutterings that jeopardized the Tigers' prospects in Tennessee. Tell Rich Brooks that the bounce of the ball has nothing to do with Kentucky's stellar season. Tell Mark Richt that the rolls of the laced leather object have nothing to do with the downward spiral of Georgia's 2006 campaign. Sure, it's absolutely true that great teams will overcome bad luck, but in the college football world, there's only one great team, and that's the one in Columbus, Ohio. For everyone else, the fickle forces of fate and fortune have had a lot to do with the trajectories of seasons and the reputations of coaches. Teaching can overcome some mistakes, but in a game played by 20-year-olds, funky and freaky football follies will unavoidably affect whole games and seasons. That's just the way it is, and in some cases, those kinds of realities need to be accounted for when a coach's job performance is discussed.

In closing, a few quick hitters for this week.

It's the second week of November, and the two biggest games relative to the national title picture will be played in Piscataway, N.J., and Bloomington, Ind. No, that's not a misprint.

Florida is one win away from completing its SEC regular-season slate with just one loss, an accomplishment that--earlier in the year--seemed to suggest a clear path to the SEC Championship Game without any other obstacles. But now that Xavier Lee is calling the shots as Florida State's quarterback, the Noles have rediscovered what it's like to actually, you know, SCORE POINTS. Florida's trip to Tallahassee has suddenly become a perilous proposition.

Want proof that wins and losses aren't always reflective of real coaching quality? Look at the LSU-Tennessee game. Yes, the Tigers got the shaft on a(nother) botched replay review in the second quarter, but still... Tennessee made a lot fewer mistakes with a backup quarterback than LSU committed with a veteran signal caller and a number of returning starters. Phil Fulmer's staff also displayed game and clock management that were vastly superior to the continuously messy (non-)methods of Les Miles and his braintrust. Major kudos to JaMarcus Russell for overcoming mistakes and coming through under pressure, but the Bayou Bengal staff has Miles to go before anyone can say it's clearly on the right track.

Michigan looked ahead to Ohio State this past Saturday--we all know that. But what might have escaped your attention is that Indiana looked ahead to Michigan this past Saturday. Any team that allows 63 points to Minnesota is simply not concentrating at all. Expect the Hoosiers to give Michigan a battle for at least one half on Saturday. With good bounces of the ball in key situations, things could get interesting for a little while... but probably not 60 minutes.

No one should even dare to suggest that USC is somehow "back" after the Trojans' demolition of Stanford on Saturday (shame on you, Lee Corso). Saturday night's upcoming game against Oregon (please watch it if you care about being a fair evaluator of college football teams; the game starts at 10:15 p.m. in the Eastern United States) begins the season in earnest for Pete Carroll's team. The next four weeks, not the "walking bye week" known as a Stanford game, will determine just how good USC really is.
 
Race for #2 by BCSGuru.com

The Race for No. 2 (NOV. 2)
On the surface, it appears that the Big East got a huge break when USC finally lost a game. But upon closer examination, the plot only thickens.

Even if Louisville, after an impressive victory over West Virginia, runs the table and finishes 12-0, it might not be clear sailing into the national championship game against the Michigan-Ohio State winner. In fact, there are numerous scenarios, all of them still somewhat plausible, that would keep the Cardinals out, and a one-loss team from another conference in.

Louisville’s computer rating is respectable, and it has a decent chance to improve on it. The Cardinals will play undefeated Rutgers next week and still have Pittsburgh, South Florida and Connecticut on the schedule. And if Miami, who was routed by Louisville earlier in the season, doesn't completely tank down the stretch, that should help the Cardinals, too.

Still, the possibility exists that a 12-0 Louisville, No. 2 in both the coaches and Harris polls, might be passed by a 12-1 Florida, 11-1 Michigan or Ohio State or even an 11-1 USC. If any of those teams finishes third in the polls, it might have enough computer cushion to leapfrog the Cardinals.

So Louisville's best bet is to have as many one-loss teams as possible. With multiple one-loss teams, the poll points get diluted for everybody, and that keeps a few teams further down in the polls. For example, had Auburn, Texas or Tennessee lost on Saturday, USC and Florida would be much higher in the polls, instead of Nos. 9 and 7, respectively, as they find themselves right now.

Of course, Rutgers will still have some say on all of these. If the Scarlet Knights beat both Louisville and West Virginia -- and finish 12-0 -- they will creep up into the Top 10. But that’s a topic for another day.



BCS Bowl Projections

  • National championship – 1. Ohio State vs. 5. Louisville
  • Fiesta Bowl – 7. Texas vs. 14. Boise State
  • Rose Bowl – *2. Michigan vs. 10. California
  • Sugar Bowl – 4. Florida vs. *9. Notre Dame
  • Orange Bowl – *6. Auburn vs. 15. Boston College
 
Adding:

Troy -4 (-105)
MTSU -4 (-113)

Like the lines for both of these and one of the best Sun Belt cappers, CB, is on them. I'm good for a tail.
 
Texas v. Kansas St added to ABCs over the air play. It could be a 3:30 est or 8 pm start. Have to wait to see. Could be another spotlight type game for Texas.
 
BCS Analyis from HornFans:

The Link

Great weekend on the field for Texas and its increasing NC chances, but some strange developments as the BCS math comes out today. Not too surprised by the human polls, actually may have come out a little better than we could have hoped.

I'm honestly beginning to get concerned about Texas lack of progress to date in the computers. The Massey and Sagarin (elo chess) rankings, in particular, are terrible. You'll note on my analysis that Texas' SOS year-to-date is superior to many one-loss teams that are consistently outranking Texas in several computers (i.e., USC, ND, Wisconsin, etc). It's also bizarre that two-loss LSU and Tennessee are also outranking Texas in some instances.

My analysis ignores Division I-AA games, and perhaps that is creating more headwind for Texas' SOS as it competes with other teams in the computers.

I still believe Texas is in very good shape if Louisville and Florida each lose a game. The unexpectedly weak trend in the computers may mean a resurgent USC could pose a slight risk to Texas if they win out. I remain unworried about ND.

Please let me know if you see any errors in the math or flaws in the logic.
 
bc,nd and boise have no business in the bcs. wvu will win out and take number 9 or 10. i would love my mountaineers to break out the whooping stick on that Smile! brady. btw if brady quinn wins the heisman i will never watch another game in my life....he is the biggest hyped fraud in the game.hell i could throw for 250 and 2 tds against unc besides hes got pussy in his blood..
 
TexAgs Pissed at Fran

Fran doing the Jack Nicholson thing from A Few Good Men:

Link

You want answers?
I think I'm entitled.
You want answers?!
I want the truth!
You can't handle the truth!

Son, we live on Kyle field that homes the 12th Man and that field needs to be guarded by men with speed. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Potbanger? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for our November record and curse our playcalling; you have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know: that our playcalling, while tragic at times, probably wins games, and that my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, wins games.

You don't want the truth because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties you want me on that sideline, you need me on that sideline. We use words like tackle, run, block. We use then as the backbone in a game trying to improve our record. You use them as a punchline. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a fan who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very coaching I provide and then questions the manner in which I provide it. I would rather you just said "thank you," and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest that you pick up a football and get in formation. Either way, I don't give a damn what you think you are entitled to.

Did you order the field goal?
I did the job I had to do.
Did you order the field goal?!
You're ____ right I did!
 
Never thought I'd find a better signature picture than the crying OU kid, but this one is close:

stunned.jpg
 
Adding:

Navy -12.5 (-105) (4 units)

Awesome run offense against a horrid run D on an indoor neutral field with carpet (Ford Field).
 
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RJ, this is my write-up for last week's "Navy" play against Duke. It also applied to Air Force -- another game I bet big last week.


Navy -12 for 2 UNITS & -9 for 1 UNIT W -- Guys, I read a very interesting article today about how the "military schools" like away games because they actually get more sleep on the road and enjoy the pampering that's included. Remember, these are military men who have to get up and do PT at the break of dawn before breakfast and classes. So, on the days they have home games, it's business as usual, but on away games, the rules are relaxed and they feel more rested. Look at the "away" games for Navy this season -- some of their best performances were on the road! Now, they get to go play Duke where a win will secure them a spot for Bowling in post season. What is Duke's motivation in this game? They need to win a game so they don't get skunked for the season, but their more motivated performances come against their conference foes -- which they will face in their remaining three games. Navy has all the statistical advantages in this match-up and I believe they have all the motivational advantages as well. Throw in the discovery of how the players feel about road games and I think we have us a winner here!
 
HUNTDOG said:
great stuff DEN...gonna tail you and RJ on this one.

Hunt, I put a DIME on Navy this week at -12. It is the same situation I am seeing with Duke from last week. Ohio ran all over EMU Saturday, they just couldn't finish their drives in the red zone. I guarantee you Navy will not have any trouble finishing.


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CFN.com's Monday Morning QB

Zemek's Monday Morning Quarterback 2006



By Matt Zemek
CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Nov 6, 2006

In a game decided by 10 points (17 if you discount garbage touchdowns), there's only so much one can say about the immediate strategic dimensions of the West Virginia-Louisville showdown from Thursday night. However, a contest this significant cries out for extended examination.


By Matthew Zemek

The first thing that needs to be said about this game is that both coaches shone brightly. Let's start with West Virginia coach Rich Rodriguez.

Even in defeat, Rodriguez--as counterintuitive as this might sound--refuted this columnist and, for that matter, any of his doubters in the college football world. Yeah, that's a weirdly strong statement to make, but it rings with truth. The explanation is pretty simple: Pat White lives in a world ordinary mortals know nothing about.

Before kickoff, it was believed by some that the Mountaineers would suffer from their lack of a passing game, and more specifically, from the small amount of passes West Virginia had thrown in its first seven games of the season. There would be times when Pat White would not be able to complete a big pass on situations such as, oh, a 3rd and 9. But darned if White didn't do exactly that in the first quarter, one play before Steve Slaton strolled into the end zone for a 42-yard touchdown. White didn't throw many passes on the night, but the Mountaineer quarterback was appreciably accurate with his high-velocity delivery. Rodriguez presided over an offense that accounted for 540 yards, 318 of them on the ground. When you rush for over 300 yards even when eleven defenders are hell-bent on stopping your ground game, you don't need much of a passing game. His team lost, but Rich Rodriguez' methodology was largely validated.

Here, though, is the big question about West Virginia's offense and the way in which Rodriguez is bringing his team along: when White becomes a junior next season (yes, folks, he's only a sophomore), will this same approach be justified? Given White's youthfulness, it makes sense--and Thursday night's game affirmed this contention--that Rodriguez would make this offense easy for White to run. Make a few basic reads, react accordingly, and unleash the athleticism. Period. Why complicate an offense or insist on run-pass balance when you can win with simplicity and a run-first, run-second, run-third approach? Why try to throw long passes when bubble screens and intermediate routes of 12-15 yards can do the job? This year, a conceptually simple approach has worked for West Virginia, given that it passed the biggest test of the season. (It was, of course, a combo of horrible defense and dubious special teams that truly killed the Mountaineers in this loss to Louisville.).

With all this having been said, though, one must point out that when things don't go well in a big game, a team's chances are strengthened if it has more contingencies and options. While there's no question that West Virginia really doesn't need to throw the ball often to be effective (Pat White soundly refuted any opposing arguments on Thursday night), what is also true is that the Mountaineers still could have used a passing game that--with the presence of White and Slaton--could fool a defense and hit an 80-yard touchdown play at some point. While a pass-based offense risks interceptions, it can also hit a huge play with greater ease and immediacy. Given that the Mountaineers fumbled the ball several times on running plays, the ability to hit one big pass play is something that would have bolstered their cause. As awesome as West Virginia's offense already is, imagine how good it could be if extended time was truly devoted to the passing game. When a big game comes across the calendar, you want to have the ability to hit a home run with either the run or the pass. Next year, with White a year older and wiser, Rich Rodriguez will improve his team's chances of winning big games if he can cultivate a big-play passing game that's nearly as devastating as his already overwhelming ground attack.

You want to have a full menu of options at your disposal in spotlight contests; West Virginia didn't quite have this on Thursday against Louisville, but then again, Pat White's youth probably necessitated a simpler approach from Rich Rodriguez. The results produced by the Mountaineer offense affirm their head coach's overall strategy. Next year, though, Rodriguez will want to spend a lot of time in his football kitchen, so that a full menu will be served against big-name opponents. If Rodriguez still has a porous defense that figures to give up 30-40 points, the West Virginia offense has to be potent enough to score 50. This means having a home-run-hitting passing game along with a breakaway running attack that can score from anywhere on the field at any time.

Now, to the other side of the coaching collision from Thursday night's game.

Bobby Petrino--given his offense's red zone struggles--wasn't able to sequence his red zone plays as well as he would have liked against West Virginia. However, the Louisville mastermind was still able to call a great game from the sideline, as his charges--led by Brian Brohm--scored 30 points while gaining 468 yards. As a play caller, Petrino--with the exception of his red zone forays--approached this game with the aggressive mindset that has to emerge in a high-stakes battle. The Louisville coach didn't choose to dink and dunk; he worked the deep middle of the field, enabling his passing game to hit several strikes of 25 yards or more. The vertical nature of Louisville's passing game enabled Petrino to toy with and manipulate West Virginia's defense throughout the game. A more minimalist game plan wouldn't have opened up opportunities with the same degree of regularity. Petrino had a thoroughbred in the shadows of Churchill Downs, and that studly horse was Brian Brohm. The coach had the good sense to trust his star quarterback, and the rest, as they say, was history.

Brohm's grasp of Petrino's offense--not to mention Petrino's mind--was so complete that the signal caller made all the right reads and audibles against the Mountaineers. More specifically, Brohm's use of the short pass was so wise and selective that when he did throw underneath, he usually put his receivers in position to tally huge totals of RAC (run-after-catch) yards and create big gainers. On the few times when plays seemed to be on the verge of collapsing, Brohm--with uncanny pocket presence and alertness--used nimble feet and deceptive upper-body strength to avoid pass rushers and gain precious fractions of seconds. Given this extra bit of time, Brohm hit receivers to convert third downs and cover large chunks of real estate. A coach was smart enough to be stubborn with the downfield passing game, and his quarterback rewarded him for maintaining that aggressive posture throughout this Big East brouhaha.

While Petrino the play caller was extremely good, Petrino the coach and executive decision maker was even better. In a game that had a very fragile and volatile feel until Louisville broke it open early in the third quarter, Petrino had the sense to realize that big second-half plays--not big first-half plays--would make the difference. As a result of this mindset, Petrino didn't allow this game to get away from Louisville late in the first half. With his team trailing 14-13 late in the second quarter, Petrino--admittedly because of some bad play calling--put his team in a 4th and goal situation at the Mountaineer 1. The temptation to go for a touchdown was considerable under the circumstances, but with West Virginia already riding a wave of momentum after stuffing Louisville on the previous three plays--and set to get the ball first in the second half--it was imperative for the Cards to get three points and a lead. When you recall that the Mountaineers had blown away Petrino's defense on their previous possession to take the 14-13 lead, Petrino needed to think a few moves ahead when he confronted this 4th and goal. If West Virginia scored a touchdown at the beginning of the second half, Louisville needed to be down five points, not eight; if the Mountaineers' momentum was to be blunted, the Cards needed three points and the psychological boost of having the halftime lead--they certainly did not need the emotional letdown of trailing at the break.

Those who regularly read the Monday Morning Quarterback during the season might be wondering: "Why, all of a sudden, are conservative decisions being applauded? Aren't coaches supposed to go for the jugular in big games?" It's a very valid pair of questions, because conservative decision making does indeed run counter to the modus operandi of many of football's most decorated coaches, college or pro. Bill Parcells has ample fourth-down guts. So does Pete Carroll. Ditto Charlie Weis. Same for Steve Spurrier. Same for Bob Stoops at Texas A&M (more on that a bit later). On this night and in this particular game, though, Petrino was wise to take the safe approach.

Here's the reason: the first half of this game in Papa John's Stadium was loaded with gobs of flop-sweat-filled, nerve-centered, anxiety-based mistakes. The fumbles and personal fouls that West Virginia and Louisville liberally provided were too frequent for any team to establish real dominance. Because the first half was defined more by mistakes than by excellence, any coach--if placed in a similar situation--would have been wise to re-focus his team in the halftime locker room, and impress upon his charges the need for a clean second half. When your team is making mistakes or is deficient to an alarming degree, you can't expect to break a game open with big gambles, especially in the first half of a tight game. Regrouping and reloading is the better strategy. It's only when your team has unquestioned rhythm and momentum that you should go for the brass ring, and Louisville--at the end of the first half--lacked that mammoth mojo.

Sure enough, then, Petrino kicked the field goal, and in the second half, the Cards clearly played a cleaner brand of football. While Louisville committed one big fumble, the Mountaineers coughed up the pill twice. Throw in some penalties and a horrible punt, and West Virginia wound up making the mistakes that decisively turned this contest in Louisville's favor. Petrino's offense was virtually flawless in building a 44-27 lead, and that second-half surge was largely made possible by the sensible (though far from easy) decision to kick a field goal at the end of the first half.

The quality of execution in Thursday night's Big East game of the year--especially in the first 20 minutes--was spotty at best, a testament to the nerves that got the better of many hormone-addled youngsters in men's bodies. But once the second half arrived and this game settled into a rhythm, Louisville and Bobby Petrino cleaned up their act. Rich Rodriguez had a perfectly good plan, but untimely mistakes by key players hurt his team's cause. Petrino, in the meantime, showed a rare combination of aggressive play calling and patient decision making that paved the way for his team's breakthrough victory. Two coaches performed well in a game where players' concentration levels fluctuated wildly. Rodriguez has the better system and a stubbornness with the ground game that works. Bobby Petrino, however, had the discipline needed to take a lead and resolve urgent issues in the second half of a huge ballgame. West Virginia's head coach scored major philosophical and systemic points; Louisville's boss man scored the biggest victory of his career.

Outside of the West-Virginia Louisville game, there were a few other notable strategic maneuvers that gained the attention of every serious college football fan. One such decision came from Oklahoma head coach Bob Stoops.

Stoops did what Berkeley economist and freelance football researcher David Romer has advocated in the realm of football strategy. We reported back in August that Romer--as stated in a Joe Nocera column from the June 24 edition of the New York Times--concluded from a series of personally conducted studies that football coaches are too conservative when it comes to fourth-down decision making. More boldness and fewer punts were Romer's twin recommendations. Well, if you saw Saturday night's game between Oklahoma and Texas A&M, you might have gained a fresh appreciation for why this suggested sea change in coaching strategy has some merit. If you didn't watch this game or read about it in your Sunday paper, here's the recap: with roughly 90 seconds left in the game and Oklahoma clinging to a 17-16 lead over the Aggies, the Sooner offense faced a 4th and inches just short of its own 30. Dennis Franchione had just used his team's final timeout--and properly so--before the 4th down, to ensure that his offense would have 30-35 more seconds to work with... if it got the ball back. Stoops decided, however, to go for the first down, and sure enough, the Sooners pounded out a two-yard gain to wrap up their victory.

This is a classically difficult coaching decision, and while some disagreements are sure to make their way to the inbox on this issue (especially from people soured on Stoops after all the offseason incidents at Oklahoma), the verdict here is that Stoops made the right call. The reason is not the predictable one--namely, that the play worked. No, the choice was an appropriate one because of all the outside factors that formed the context in which the move was made.

Why did Bob Stoops make the right choice in this particular situation? There are a few reasons one needs to account for in arriving at a proper assessment of his decision. One of the reasons why this was a good move is that Texas A&M doesn't have the defense that R.C. Slocum made famous. If Dat Nguyen or other similar terrors were still part of the Aggie linebacking corps, one would definitely have to think twice about gaining a few inches. You want to be bold, but you don't want to be pigheaded in this kind of a situation, and OU's decision did not seem to fit in that category. A second reason why this strategy worked is something we talked about earlier in the year: if you can seal a game outright on one play, the rewards of that play are greater than the risks involved, which makes a bold approach surprisingly more percentage-based than one might initially think. Given that A&M necessarily had to use its last timeout before the fourth down, OU had the ability to end the game right then and there, instead of having to sweat out a defensive stand and hope that A&M couldn't get in field goal range. That's a worthwhile gamble. The third reason why the OU coach made a Stoop-endous decision was that his team had just inches to go. Given the weight and magnitude of this play, it's worth ascertaining when a smart and bold approach becomes a low-percentage gamble. Reasonable people can have different opinions on this issue, but this writer's opinion is that if the distance was anything over one full yard, a punt would have been more appropriate. But since this was a matter of inches--and the way the chains just happened to line up--Stoops was correct to not allow the placement of the sticks to dictate his thinking. Coaches have an annoying tendency to do that, and Stoops has a big-enough brain to look beyond the links in the chains.

All these reasons--as sound as they are--pale in comparison, however, to the number one justification for Stoops' decision in College Station: he knew what was best for his team. This is the biggest single reason why Pete Carroll at USC, Charlie Weis at Notre Dame, and Steve Spurrier--especially when at Florida--have, like Stoops, won so many ballgames with ballsy fourth-down decision making. The great coaches know what they can and can't afford to do, and more specifically, they know where games have to be won or lost. Carroll's 2005 USC team had to sink or swim with its powerful offense, not its shaky defense. Ergo, Carroll took a lot of fourth-down chances; they seemed to be low-percentage in an immediate statistical sense, but when you consider how good SC's offense was, those "gambles" were actually smart decisions when placed in a larger context. Weis--with a similar balance of good offense and bad defense, did the same thing with his Irish last season. Spurrier--especially when Danny Wuerffel reigned under center in the mid-90s--had the consummately unflappable trigger man with whom he could take unconventional risks. The 4th and 11 Spurrier and Wuerffel converted in the first quarter of a rain-soaked game at Tennessee in 1996 is one of the two plays that propelled the Gators to their only national championship. What about the second play? Well, that was an unusual fourth-down gamble as well: the 4th and inches play on which the Texas Longhorns and John Mackovic, backed up to their own 28 and up three (30-27) over Nebraska late in the fourth quarter, chose to go for the first down. James Brown faked run action and flipped a pass to Derek Lewis, whose huge gainer set up a game-sealing touchdown for Texas. The Longhorn win knocked Nebraska out of the Sugar Bowl, enabling Florida to play--and beat--Florida State for the whole ball of wax.

From these examples, one should get the idea that great fourth down play calls--which influence the trajectories of whole seasons in this sport--are made by coaches who know how to play to their team's strengths or, in some sense, appeal to the best instincts and desires of their kids. For Stoops, the reason why this call was best for his team is as follows: Oklahoma was not playing for a division or conference title. The truly lofty seasonal goals the Sooners normally have were unattainable going into this game. Add in the absence of Adrian Peterson, and everything about this game's importance for OU was connected to 2007 more than 2006. The task in front of Stoops is not to win 10 games this season, because 10 wins won't get OU to a BCS bowl or a conference crown. With a quarterback, a running back, and an offensive line that are all growing in confidence--but need to make game-defining plays in tough situations if they want to lift the Sooner program back to the top of the sport--Stoops wisely concluded that he needed to put his offense through the crucible of a late-game fourth down on the road. It wasn't so much about beating A&M as it was a matter of feeding a heaping helping of confidence to the same players who will be back in 2007. As the ESPN broadcast crew noted during Saturday night's game in College Station, Oklahoma has one of the smallest totals of seniors among any Division I-A team. Given this reality, it was important for Stoops to give his young offense a proving-ground moment. The 2007 season just got a lot better for the Sooners as a result of their coach's fourth-down move... and the offense's ability to reward it.

The other big coaching move from the past weekend that absolutely demands commentary is Houston Nutt's decision to pull the trigger at quarterback and put Casey Dick in for Mitch Mustain in the early stages of Arkansas' game at South Carolina.

The decision was one of the gutsiest, most courageous moves ever seen from a Division I-A head coach in quite some time. It was, moreover, a correct and astonishing move at the same time. The fourth-down discussion above offers proof of the conservative, cookie-cutter, copycat nature of coaches' thought patterns and methodologies. The fact that Carroll, Weis, Spurrier and Stoops stick out like sore thumbs in this business is a damning indictment of the longstanding conventional wisdom adhered to by coaches, though certainly not the men themselves. It is important to make this distinction--in criticizing a longstanding and somewhat nebulous philosophy, but not individual flesh-and-blood coaches--because coaches will make conservative choices on so many occasions because it gives them political cover.

Let's be mature enough to not deny this: if coaches make gambles that blow up in their faces, they get skewered by everyone in this larger industry (this is why the Monday Morning Quarterback will always seek to vigorously defend coaches who make appropriate decisions that still don't get the desired on-field results). And since college coaching--unlike the NFL--is a more political creature, at least in terms of the relationships a coach has with fans, boosters and administrators (in the pro game, a coach has a very political role as well, but that role emerges in relationships with his players, who have egos that need to be massaged and stroked), a coach--in order to maintain good standing with his university community--will make safe and sensible choices nine times out of ten on gamedays. The very decisions that might be perceived as gutless in an analytical football forum such as this one will often (though not always) wind up being very astute decisions in political realms and contexts. Conversely, bold examples of creative, thinking-man's football strategy--moves that have ample logic and wisdom behind them--could create political firestorms if they don't wind up working on the field. This is all a very elongated and elaborate way of saying that if coaching were a not-so-cutthroat business, coaches would display much more creativity in every aspect of gameday coaching and decision making.

With all this as prelude, then, stop and consider the raw guts and coaching cojones of Houston Nutt. Nobody--well, actually, nobody other than his Saturday night opponent, Steve Spurrier--pulls the trigger with an in-game quarterback shuffle like that. What do you mean "like that"? Like this: Arkansas' freshman quarterback Mitch Mustain, after just one series, got pulled in favor of Casey Dick with South Carolina leading by a paltry 3-0 score midway through the first quarter. Nutt was begging for a beating from all the armchair critics: Mustain had won consistently. He was the local kid who did well for the in-state university. He was somewhat surprisingly elevated to the starter's spot after the first game of the season, so he had already benefited from a quarterback switch himself. (Robert Johnson had been the starter in the Hogs' season opener against Southern California.) Switching yet again to Dick--whom this columnist felt was the Hogs' best QB entering the season--opened Nutt up to a tidal wave of criticism and second-guessing. Add in the fact that Arkansas offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn (who has been doing a sensational job, by the way; his mix of calls and his play design have camouflaged or otherwise minimized any QB deficiencies the Hogs have had this season) was Mustain's high school coach, and you have a situation in which benching Mustain was the most politically risky move Nutt possibly could have made. Twenty-four hours after the game--as this column is being written--the mind still reels in contemplating the sheer guts the Boss Hog had to possess in order to make that kind of a move.

But it only serves to prove the larger point we're trying to establish here: good football moves are often bad political ones from a coach's standpoint, and bad football moves are often the best political maneuvers a college football coach can make. Houston Nutt chose football over politics, and dadgummit, he was rewarded. If his team can play its best game this Saturday against a gallant and well-coached but limited Tennessee team (given its quarterback issues, which, unlike 2005, have nothing to do with negative or substandard performances from anyone), it will almost surely win the SEC West in the face of formidable opposition from Auburn and LSU.

It's great to see coaches being rewarded for showing a lot of guts and grace under fire. Houston Nutt, whose team was on the verge of coming apart after that Southern California game two months ago, patched up his team's fractious QB situation then, and he juggled his signal callers once more in this past weekend's Cockfight in Columbia. Rarely has a coach had the courage to think outside the box and value football over politics; but Houston Nutt is clearly not most coaches. It's why his program--not Alabama, not Ole Miss, not Mississippi State--is in position to break the Auburn-LSU stronghold on the SEC West title, which has existed since 2000 but was briefly interrupted only once... when Nutt's Arkansas team won the division in 2002.

Frank Broyles should be a proud athletic director. Had he possessed the same quick trigger Houston Nutt has with his quarterbacks, Nutt wouldn't have been around to engineer this tremendous 2006 turnaround in the life of Arkansas football. One of the feel-good stories of the football season is a tribute to a coach with the guts to cut against the grain... and politics. It's funny, then, that one of the most apolitical moves of the whole season came just three days before Election Day. Houston Nutt wasn't trying to win a gubernatorial campaign; all he was trying to do was win a football game. Well, then? Mission accomplished.
 
Five Thoughts from CFN.com

5 Thoughts - Does This Season Stink?

373869.jpg



By Staff
CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Nov 6, 2006

With all the mediocrity, no Heisman race, and bad football being played all over the plays, is this lousy season going to get good? Louisville got a big win, but has everyone forgotten about the Kolby Smith and the Cards' close calls? More replay problems, the disappointing Ball Coach, and more in the latest 5 Thoughts.




Uhhhhh, did anyone watch the Cincinnati or Syracuse games?

[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][SIZE=-2]By Pete Fiutak
[/SIZE][/FONT]1. College football talking heads and voters either have the attention span of a two-year old after eating 14 Nutter Butters, or they haven't watched Louisville play all year. After their lousy performances this weekend, everyone just now has begun to notice that Florida, Michigan, and even Ohio State, to a lesser extent, might not quite the be-all-end-all teams that so easily fit all the preconceived, preseason notions, but, of course, Louisville is the greatest thing since the man figured out how to make a taco that was crunchy, chewy and cheesy. Louisville’s offense at home is unstoppable, but one monster win over West Virginia, which also showcased just how porous the Cardinal defense can be, is being given way too much national credit, while close calls against Syracuse and Cincinnati are being completely blown off. I’m not saying the Cardinals don’t deserve to be in the national title hunt or aren’t any good, this really might be a championship team, but let’s relax a little bit on jumping on the hot new team every time one pops up after one really big win. You might have to save something for Rutgers after Thursday night.
The 2006 season has no clothes

[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][SIZE=-2]By Pete Fiutak
2
[/SIZE][/FONT]. Considering I spend my entire life around a game a bunch of 18-to-22-year old kids play, I’m supposed to be ultra-geek college football boy no matter what happens, and I am, but it’s time to point out the obvious: this season sucks ... so far.

It was asking a lot for a good year after 2005, when there were epic USC and Texas teams, a fantastic Heisman battle among all-time talents, the resurgence of Notre Dame, Penn State and Alabama, and classic game after classic game, but after this week, this season is going down a quick path to becoming a forgettable throwaway.

Sure there are some exciting finishes and some wonderful stories, but there’s flat-out bad football being played all over America week after week after week. Sorry, but the number one team in the nation shouldn’t be shut down by Illinois after the opening drive. The number two team in the country shouldn’t have to hang on at home against Ball freakin’ State. Who’s the best one-loss team? Who cares? They’re all no big whoop. If you want to sell me on Arkansas, Wisconsin, or Cal rising up to be among the strongest one-loss teams, at the moment, to throw some new ideas and new blood into the mix, I’ll listen, but I’m sick of Florida and Auburn playing mediocre football week in and week out and being considered national title contenders. I’m tired of the ACC, where Virginia Tech and Miami can stink up the joint in a 17-10 game that set the idea of the forward pass back 25 years. Texas is certainly turning into something special, and it played a great game against Oklahoma State, but that secondary was getting bombed on way too often before this week.

And then there’s the yawner of a Heisman race. Outside of the Illinois game, Troy Smith is certainly playing well, but come on. Is anyone really doing backflips to vote for him, and is he the main man only because there’s absolutely no one else out there? A vote by default is hardly a vote of confidence. I have half a mind to vote for Vince Young just to ease my inner guilt for voting for Reggie Bush last year.

Here we go 2006 season, you have three more weeks to dazzle us. Michigan – Ohio State, Cal – USC, Notre Dame – USC, and LSU – Arkansas have the potential to be special. Heck, Louisville – Rutgers should be fun. Troy, it's all yours, baby, just do what you do every year against Michigan and it's all good as far as my vote. Many of the one loss teams should be over the lull of a long 12-game season and be ready to kick it into overdrive. Everyone has to start playing well soon, don’t they? We’re all ready for some good football.


More Ball and more Coach

By Richard Cirminiello
3
. It's been almost two years since the Old Ball Coach returned home to college football and the SEC by putting down stakes in South Carolina.
Shouldn't we expect a little more than a 5-4 record and the league's No. 10 scoring offense from Steve Spurrier? The Gamecocks rallied in the second half against Arkansas Saturday night, but it was the same old story, ending with a close loss to one of the SEC's better teams. If you're keeping score at home, South Carolina has now fattened up on Mississippi State, Wofford, Florida Atlantic, Kentucky and Vanderbilt, while losing to heavyweights Georgia, Auburn, Tennessee and Arkansas.
Where are the upsets, the memorable moments we figured would be a little more regular in year No. 2 with the new system and new staff? How about a little momentum off of last year's 7-5 campaign? Since stunning Florida last Nov. 12, South Carolina is under .500 and 0-6 against teams with winning records. Up next? A trip to Gainesville to face a Gator team that'll surely have revenge on its mind. No one expected overnight miracles when Spurrier came on board in 2004, but how about some progress or some offensive excitement? Is it too much to expect the occasional magic from one of the game's most innovative coaches? Just like with Lou Holtz, we can dismiss the coach's failures on Sundays as a bad philosophical marriage, but on Saturdays, mediocrity and Spurrier are becoming strange and all too common bedfellows.

More replay madness

By
[FONT=verdana, arial,
sans serif][SIZE=-1]Matthew Zemek[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][SIZE=-2]
4
.
[/SIZE][/FONT]Come on, ACC.
After the debacles in Corvallis, Ore., and Lubbock, Tex., on October 28, we were treated to more instant insanity in college football's replay system this past weekend. This time, the Atlantic Coast Conference insulted the eyesight--and the intelligence--of every ordinary joe watching television from the comforts of home.
It's a very, very good thing that Maryland was able to kick a winning field goal at the gun to beat Clemson, because if the Terps had lost by two points (12-10), a horrible replay mistake would have been centrally responsible for their defeat.
There's no other way to say it: the replay official simply made a horrendous, Oklahoma-Oregon-style call in overturning a safety Maryland had scored in the fourth quarter of Saturday's Terp-Tiger tilt. There was no way Clemson's C.J. Spiller--sliding along the grass toward the goal line--fully possessed the ball outside his own end zone. The Tiger running back might have begun to touch the ball on the half-yard line, but full possession of the loose ball could not have been established unless a portion of the ball touched the goal line, which would have made the play a safety. When you also consider the fact that Spiller's body was behind the ball as it rolled away from him toward the goal line, it becomes that much more difficult to conceive how Spiller could have cradled the ball (with his body at the 1) while keeping all of the pigskin completely out of the end zone. The official on the play--who had a clear view of the scramble--called the play a safety. There was a clear lack of the "indisputable video evidence" needed to overturn the call on the field.
No problem. The replay reviewers overturned the ruling anyway.

And then there was the Boston College-Wake Forest game, in which Demon Deacon tight end John Tereshinski seemed to fumble after catching a pass in the fourth quarter of the crucial ACC Atlantic encounter. The referees called the play a fumble, which--with the subsequent recovery and return by the Eagles--would have given BC the ball at the Wake 14. Needless to say, this ruling--and particularly the upholding thereof--would have given the boys from New England a tremendous opportunity to tie the game. This was a hugely significant call.

Replays showed that Tereshinski certainly moved the ball around in his hands, but they didn't conclusively prove that the tight end lacked control of the ball. The Eagle defender on the play clearly seemed to strip the ball from Tereshinski's hands as they clutched the football. All in all, the play was very similar to the Maryland-Clemson safety call in three core respects:

1) Repeated viewings of the play seemed to support the ruling the officials had made on the field in the first place.

2) Even if the play might have been somewhat debatable, there was--at the very least--a lack of the "indisputable video evidence" needed to overturn the call.

3) After prolonged periods of review--which should suggest, in and of themselves, that there was insufficient evidence for an overturn--the original calls were overturned anyway.

The LSU-Tennessee replay failure from Saturday--in which an on-field call SHOULD have been overturned (a touchback for the Vols that should have been a touchdown, given a video shot of a Tennessee return man clearly touching the ball and changing its trajectory)--was bad enough. But the ACC's two ridiculous overturns of correct on-field calls (especially in the Maryland-Clemson game) only worsened this nightmarish season for the replay system. Once again, coach potatoes at home could do an exponentially better job than paid staffers who are evidently unable to perform what should be a simple job: see call, use basic intelligence, honor the "indisputable video evidence" proviso, and phone in the ruling to the lead official.
Lots of Americans live in poverty. ACC Commissioner John Swofford should allow a homeless guy to make a decent wage by plucking him off the street and putting him in the replay booth one of these next few Saturdays. That homeless man could do a better job than the folks in Clemson and Winston-Salem did this past weekend.
How many more games--and division title races and conference championships and BCS bowl bids--are going to be affected by horrible replay rulings? No one died, but a lot of kids are getting jobbed, and darnit, that's just not right.

A salute for dealing with the salute

[SIZE=-1]By [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]John Harris[/SIZE]
5. As the season winds down, most of our talk is going to be about the BCS, conference titles and the Heisman Trophy, but one incident that happened this weekend really piqued my interest, partially for its indirect association to one of the worst moments of this season.


Against USF, Pittsburgh’s Darrell Strong caught a touchdown pass in the fourth quarter of the game and then proceeded to ‘salute’ the Bulls fans in the stands. The ramifications of that move was felt when Pitt was assessed a 15 yards penalty on the try and the Panthers were forced to score a two point conversion from 18 yards, instead of three. Down 10 points after the touchdown, a two point conversion would’ve brought the Panthers within one possession, but the 15 yard penalty eliminated any realistic chance of scoring the two. Immediately after the game, Pitt head coach Dave Wannstedt indefinitely suspended the Pitt pass catcher for his conduct.

Earlier in the season, UNC LB Marlon White gave a similar salute to UVA’s fans in a game on Thursday night. White was to start for the first time in his career, but instead head coach John Bunting was standing right behind White and saw him do the deed, so to speak. Bunting not only gave him a tongue lashing, when the Heels went in after warm-ups, he had the young man take off his equipment and sat him down for the whole game. Of course, a few days later, Bunting was fired for the Heels lack of progress over his tenure.

These two incidents will be blips on most people’s radar screen, but they need not be. The worst incident in recent memory – the Miami/FIU game – has become the poster incident for what can happen when ‘extraneous’, unnecessary behavior takes on a life of its own, but it’s the actions taken by Wannstedt and Bunting that can help prevent these things from happening. The NBA has taken a stand as well – you complain, you’re going to get T’d up, right now. Surprising what has happened – the game actually doesn’t have crying every single play. College football doesn’t need one fingered salutes – the game is better than that. Score a TD, flip the ball to the ref and score a two point conversion to help your team win a game. Shut up a crowd with knee-knocking hit.

Neither one of these two will win a coach of the year award, but in my mind, they deserve as much respect for doing the right thing – something most of us, if not all of us, can learn from.
 
Quick Outs from CFN.com

Quick Outs

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By Richard Cirminiello
Collegefootballnews.com
Posted Nov 5, 2006

Summa Cum Laude – Louisville – In the game of the year so far, the Cardinals stood tall against West Virginia, getting three huge takeaways and scores from its offense, defense and special teams in a surprisingly easy 44-34 win.

The victory establishes Louisville as the team to catch in the mad dash to fill the other half of the National Championship bracket opposite the Michigan-Ohio State winner.

2. Wake Forest – The Demon Deacons, getting limited support from their battered offense, seized control of the ACC Atlantic with a landmark win over favored Boston College. Wake made the defensive stops when it had to for its first 8-1 start in 62 years.

3. Maryland – The Terps’ 13-12 win over Clemson was their fourth straight, keeping them in a first-place tie atop the ACC’s Atlantic Division. Maryland’s final drive, led by the cool hand of senior QB Sam Hollenbach, was exactly how resurgent head coach Ralph Friedgen drew it up.

4. Arizona – The Wildcats did what Oregon State, Oregon and UCLA couldn’t do over the past month—beat Washington State. Arizona played its best game since the opener, getting boosts from the defense and the return of QB Willie Tuitama in a 27-17 upset.

5. Rice – Using a balanced offensive attack and big plays from RB Quinton Smith, the Owls held off a late charge from UTEP for its biggest win in years. Without any attention, Rice has won three straight games under first-year Todd Graham, pulling to within two victories of bowl eligibility and snapping a 45-year post-season drought.

Summa Cum Lousy – The Clemson Offense – The Tigers gained 400 yards on Maryland, yet failed to reach the end zone, which eventually cost them a 13-12 game to the Terps. Not long ago the darling of the ACC, Clemson has scored just 19 points the last two weeks, getting bumped out of the Atlantic Division race and the polls.

2. West Virginia – There’s no shame in losing at Papa John’s Stadium, but the Mountaineers’ collapse in the third quarter handed Louisville an insurmountable lead and was hardly indicative of the nation’s third-ranked team.

3. Arizona State – The Sun Devils have pretty much shown us the blueprint of the 2006 season, going 5-0 against sub par teams and 0-4 versus quality opponents. On Saturday, ASU visited streaking Oregon State, falling flat on its face in a 44-10 loss.

4. Iowa –What in the world is going on in Iowa City? Losers of four of their last six games and residents of seventh place in the Big Ten, the Hawkeyes reached a new low Saturday with a 21-7 loss to a bad Northwestern team.

5. Pitt TE Darrell Strong – In what had to be the dumbest move of the weekend, Strong got himself suspended from the Panther program for flipping the bird at the South Florida crowd at Raymond James Stadium. Kudos to Pitt head coach Dave Wannstedt for acting swiftly, sending a message that such stupidity won’t be tolerated by the program.

Offensive Coordinator of the Week – James Franklin, Kansas State – The Wildcats used a low-risk passing game to complement the running of freshman Leon Patton in a 34-21 win at Colorado. The 34 points, 188 yards rushing and 439 total yards allowed were all season highs for the usually stout Buffalo defense.

Defensive Coordinator of the Week – Mark Banker, Oregon State – Banker’s Beavers held Arizona State to just 99 yards rushing and 10 points, both season-lows for the Sun Devils. The defense added four sacks and two key interceptions, while holding Rudy Carpenter to 9-of-27 passing for just 124 yards and no scores.

Let’s all chill out a little about last weekend’s close call from Ohio State. The Buckeyes have cruised through their schedule, and are allowed one uninspired effort on the road against a team like Illinois. The only surprise is that it hasn’t happened sooner. Michigan, on the other hand, hasn’t been really impressive since blowing out Notre Dame on Sept. 16. Needing to escape at home against Ball State and freshman QB Nate Davis is a sign that this team may have bigger problems than just looking ahead to its Nov. 18 showdown in Columbus.

If Texas’ Colt McCoy was an upperclassmen, he’d be no worse than No. 3 in the Heisman race. Instead, he’s just now beginning to get some attention for the award. Compare the freshman’s numbers, wins and performances since losing his one big game of the year to, say, Brady Quinn’s, and it’s impossible to tell who’s the senior and who’s the rookie.

Oregon State’s four-game resurgence has put the 6-3 Beavers in a position to contend for a Holiday Bowl berth, a ridiculous suggestion just one month ago. It should also have left no doubt that unbeaten Boise State absolutely deserves one of this year’s ten openings in a BCS bowl game. The same red-hot OSU team that’s beaten Washington, Arizona, USC and Arizona State the last four games also lost to the Broncos 42-14 back on Sept. 7.

It seems as if a little mid-season adversity has been good for Texas Tech QB Graham Harrell, who has rebounded from a brief October benching by throwing 13 touchdown passes and just two picks over the last three games. The sophomore is making better decisions and not forcing the ball as much, propelling him to No. 18 nationally in passing efficiency.

In the area of broadcasting, can there be a moratorium on sideline reporters starting any question with, “How does it feel to...”, former coaches that refuse to criticize underachieving current head coaches and use of the tired phrase “took it to the house” when a player scores a touchdown? Has originality completely left this profession over the last decade? Geez.

Can the legend of JoePa growing any larger around Happy Valley? After enduring some friendly fire when Wisconsin’s DeAndre Levy shoved a Penn State player into the coach on the sidelines, Paterno initially refused to leave the field or take any Tylenol for what would wind up being a broken bone in his left tibia. It’s a good thing Paterno eventually acquiesced and left Camp Randall on a cart—two plays later, 245-pound Badger back P.J. Hill crashed into the same spot the coach had just vacated.

Poor Andrew Quarless. On the same day that the Penn State freshman tight end had a career-best five catches for 62 yards, he also was the one that inadvertently ran into Joe Paterno, breaking the coach’s leg and damaging his knee ligament. Yup, that’s the same Quarless that accidentally upended Paterno during a practice earlier this year.

After losing 34-20 to Nebraska in a second-straight ugly performance, Missouri is in danger of fumbling all of the goodwill it amassed in September and October. Any missteps by the Tigers in season-ending games with Iowa State or Kansas will make it difficult stamping the 2006 season as a successful one.

Seeking bowl eligibility for the first time in 13 years against a rapidly fading Minnesota team, Indiana barely showed up in a deflating 63-26 setback. The collapse forces the Hoosiers to upset Michigan or beat Purdue in West Lafayette to get that elusive postseason game.

After losing to Kentucky and dropping into a fourth-place tie in the SEC East, the only way the 2006 season can be a success for Georgia is if true freshman QB Matthew Stafford makes considerable strides as the future of the Bulldog program. Otherwise, this fall has crumbled into easily the worst year of Mark Richt’s six years in Athens. Just think of how disastrous this season would have been had the Dawgs not escaped with close wins over Colorado, Ole Miss and Mississippi State earlier in the season.

Very quietly and against lesser competition, Auburn true freshman Ben Tate is laying the foundation for being the next big thing in a Tiger back. The heralded recruit with the enormous upside has run for 363 yards and three touchdowns on just 44 carries, when he’s seen extensive action in blowouts of Buffalo, Tulane and Arkansas State. Watch Tate blossom into one of the stars of pre-bowl preparations, a precursor of what’s to come in 2007.

Are we beginning to take for granted what Brady Quinn is doing in his senior year because he is Brady Quinn and because the Irish schedule has softened since the Michigan debacle? All Quinn has done since Sept. 16 is account for 20 touchdowns, win six games, engineer two comebacks and throw one interception...yet most people aren’t going to be moved unless he can continue that torrid pace through the finale at USC.

After tossing six touchdown passes against Utah State, Hawaii’s Colt Brennan stands just 15 touchdowns from Houston’s David Klingler’s single-season mark of 54, set in 1990. Brennan has five games to break the mark, all of which will take place in Hawaii. If he shatters it during the regular season, an invite to the Heisman Trophy ceremony in New York City might be one the perks.

For a change, Houston got a dominant effort from its defense in a 27-10 upset of division-leading Tulsa. The Cougars held QB Paul Smith to just 52 yards through three quarters and the Golden Hurricane to 10 points in a pivotal win that pulls them within two wins of the Western Division title.

Kansas State head coach Ron Prince deserves more than just nominal support for Big 12 Coach of the Year in his first season in Manhattan. Not only is he getting the Wildcats back to the postseason for the first time in three years, but he’s also done it while getting valuable reps for the franchise, freshman QB Josh Freeman. With 15 valuable practices still to come in December, look for even bigger things in Prince’s second season as Bill Snyder’s successor.

If, as expected, Adrian Peterson leaves Oklahoma a year early for the riches of the NFL, the running game will be in good hands of junior Allen Patrick. Since Peterson suffered his regular-season ending collarbone injury, Patrick has delivered 440 yards on 102 workhorse carries in Sooner wins over Colorado, Missouri and Texas A&M.

Highly-regarded USC freshman QB Mark Sanchez got some mop-up duty in the Trojans’ stampede of Stanford Saturday afternoon. It was just the second time all year Pete Carroll was able to get reps for his backup, a testament to how many close games the Trojans have been forced to play in this unusual season.

This just in... Arkansas is for real. The Hogs’ win at South Carolina was a breakthrough victory for a young program that could easily have been spooked by a Saturday night crowd at Williams-Brice Stadium. Arkansas got a career day from sophomore RB Darren McFadden to remain a couple of steps ahead of Auburn and LSU in the SEC West with a critical visit from Tennessee coming up this week.

Is Mike Shula in any trouble in Tuscaloosa? He shouldn’t be, but ask current Illinois head coach Ron Zook how losing to Mississippi State can get a coach a one-way ticket out of town.

Odd stat of the week: Damon Jenkins’ pick of a Jared Zabransky pass last Wednesday night was Fresno State’s first interception of the 2006 season. It’s no wonder the Bulldogs are in the midst of a seven-game losing streak.

After beating UAB Halloween night, SMU is one win within hallowed ground, bowl eligibility. The program that still hasn’t fully recovered from receiving the NCAA’s Death Penalty more than two decades ago is turning the corner with Phil Bennett at the steering wheel and a freshman, QB Justin Willis, as his co-pilot.
 
Who's Hot/Who's Not from CFN.com

Who's Hot & Who's Not ... Week Ten

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By Pete Fiutak
CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Nov 6, 2006

From the Colts to LSU in November to Texas A&M in November to Army's turnovers, here's who's hot and not.
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Colts[/FONT]After the Chicago Bears lost to Miami, the Indianapolis Colts are the NFL's only unbeaten team. Texas QB Colt McCoy is now second in the nation in passing efficiency with a 172.11 rating with 278 touchdown passes and just four interceptions. He's coming off the best game of his young career completing 23 of 29 passes for 346 yards and three touchdowns in the 26-10 win over Oklahoma State. The nation's leader in pass efficiency is Hawaii's Colt Brennan, who is completing 73% of his passes for 3,347 yards and 39 touchdowns with just six interceptions. He threw his first pick in the last six games in the 63-10 win over Utah State, and set the Hawaii single-season record for touchdown passes with five games still to play.

Penn State LB Paul Posluszny
The reigning Butkus Award winner is now all back full after starting the year slowly after recovering from a knee injury. He made 14 tackles against Wisconsin to put his career total at 349 passing Greg Buttle as Penn State's all-time leading tackler.

Earl Bennett vs. Florida
Urban Meyer and his staff might want to figure out where No. 10 is next year. Bennett ripped apart the Gators for 13 catches for 157 yards and a touchdown in the 25-19 loss this Saturday. Last year, as a freshman, he caught six passes for 75 yards and two scores in the 48-43 loss to Florida.

LSU in November
It's all about winning in November, and LSU is doing it. With the victory over Tennessee, LSU has won its last 12 games in college football's most crucial month. Up next are Alabama, Ole Miss, and Arkansas.

Kansas State QB Josh Freeman
Looking for one of the nation's hottest young teams? Check out what Ron Prince is doing at Kansas State getting the team bowl eligible after a 34-21 win over Colorado. The emergence of the rushing tandem of freshman Leon Patton and junior James Johnson has helped, but the brightest young star is true freshman QB Josh Freeman, who after failing to throw a touchdown pass in his first four games under center, has completed 36 of 46 passes for 412 yards and three touchdowns with an interception in wins over Iowa State and Colorado. Texas and Kansas are up next.
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[/FONT][/FONT]Texas A&M in November
Part of the problem has been because of Texas A&M's schedule getting the big boys like Texas and Oklahoma late in the year. After the 17-16 loss to the Sooners on Saturday night, under head coach Dennis Franchione, Texas A&M is now 2-10 in November. Up next is Nebraska.

Eastern Michigan in close gamesThe 1-8 Eagles have only been able to beat Toledo 17-13. That's the one time the team was on the right side of a close game. Over the last seven games, EMU has gone 1-6 losing to Northwestern 14-6, to Central Michigan in overtime, to Bowling Green by three, Western Michigan by three, and this week, Ohio by six. Navy comes up next week.

Army turnovers
Army is dead last in the nation in turnover margin after giving it up in bunches over the last few weeks. Partially due to the insertion of freshman Carson Williams at quarterback, the Black Knights
gave it away six times against Air Force, three times against Tulane, five times against TCU and four times against Connecticut on the current four-game losing streak. For the year, Army has turned it over 32 times.


UTEP down the stretch
It's crunch time, so this is when UTEP usually packs it in. The Miners have lost three straight after the 37-31 home loss to Rice and are now just fighting for a bowl bid. Last year, they lost their final three games, lost their last two in 2004, their last seven in 2003, their last five in 2002, their last seven in 2001, and their last two in 2000.

UCF and its defense
UCF got to the Conference USA championship game last year with a young defense that made plenty of mistakes, but had talent. This year, the D just stinks allowing 415 yards and 32 points per game. The Golden Knights have allowed 427 yards per defeat on a current four-game losing streak. One of the preseason favorites for the title only has one win over a D-I team beating Marshall by one.
 
Buys and Holds from EDSBS.com

BUYS: LIBERALLY INTERPRETED EDITION

This week’s edition of Buys and Sells comes after…well, after a zillion month absence. Hey! You want consistency, go buy stocks in death, taxes, and Waffle House. Otherwise, enjoy the latest edition of the sporadically updated Swindle Montana Investment prospectus, broken up into three different pieces to allow for expansion, digression, and the sad lack of a copy editor we can’t kill.

Buys:

Colt McCoy. We choose him over the team, mostly because when you look up passing efficiency only pitching machine Colt Brennan (whose parents also watched Falcon Crest and The Fall Guy) ranks higher than Colt McCoy in the nation right now. We’d also like to congratulate both kids for being born boys and avoiding the curse of being named Alexis Carrington McCoy/Brennan.

McCoy’s been composed, savvy, fast, and to this point is actually statistically ahead of where Vince Young was at this point last year. He’s going to set the record for touchdowns thrown at Texas in his first year as a starter. We normally rely on hyperbole, reference, and neologism to say what a badass someone has been on the football field. The highest compliment we can give McCoy is that we can happily rely on facts and statistics to do that for us.

Oklahoma. Now that they don’t have a white quarterback with brass door hinges for knees, this pick comes a little easier than it used to for us. (Never, ever, ever will we see a big game quarterback worse than Jason White in the clutch. Chris Rix, you are excused because shamefully you beat Florida, a memory which just caused us to spill coffee on our lap. Apache Chief says he can no longer…enlarge. Call Harvey!) Oklahoma remains content with simply winning games, improving their secondary play, and taking advantage of a quarterback who can run well and pass with mostly positive effects.

Thomas Decoud, and by proxy, Cal. Decoud is the special teamer who retarded Korey Bosworth (and possibly himself) on a block during Desean Jackson’s punt return against UCLA. Stay down, Luke. Stay down.




Shame on a Bruin! Cal is a good example of the dangers of secondhand fire right now; touch them, and you, too, may be consumed in the blaze. The asswhipping at Tennessee galvanized them rather than splintered them; since then they’ve done little but wake up, kick ass, review the carefully organized spreadsheet of names they took during the asskicking (this is Cal, right?) and enjoy the hard-earned sleep of gladiators. If they do not beat USC this year, it will never happen for another thousand cursed years.

Ohio State. Professionals do not lose to [NAME REDACTED.] Cheatypants McSweatervest is a professional. Though OSU fans may be ripping out their hair this week wondering what the hell happened, we would as a longtime observer of all things [NAME REDACTED] like to congratulate the Buckeyes on their workmanlike waxing of Illinois. You may not have known it, but this was the most dangerous game of the year. It’s all part of the [NAME REDACTED] plan, actually: recruit like a demon by lifting weights, water-skiing, and playing PS2 with the guys, convince them that the university will be like Fun Hour with an NFL contract at the end, do whatever it take to get them to believe this, and then lose most of your games while pulling out improbable victories when others least expect it.

You were that improbable victory, Ohio State. Didn’t you get the memo from Illinois? He must have faxed it to you. He’s known for his work with fax machines.

Kentucky and Miss State. By god, Kentucky and Miss State. Cave-chested abused dorklings of the world, unite! If not for Vanderbilt’s special teams unit yielding not one but two blocked punts on the day, the three puny weaklings of the SEC would have completed an unprecedented day of upsets in the SEC. (Florida fans, take solace in the fact that the game was actually not as close as it was last year. This is either an indicator of the fine work Bobby Johnson is doing at Vandy, or a sign of the impending apocalypse. Take the former.)

Call the dual shockers a testament to patience: both coaches could easily have been canned if the whimsy and fantasy of eager boosters and ADD blogger-types (ahem) were indulged. Most people were astonished to find out this offseason that Brooks was a.) still alive, and b.) still kept his job at Lexington after three years of misery and impressive profanity. Check in the clip for evil, menacing Orgeron giggle.



We struggle to even type this without laughing, but Kentucky’s improved play across the margins must be credited to the improved play of the Wildcats’s Andre Woolfolk, who’s distributed the ball with pinpoint accuracy to UK’s underrated wideouts and backs. His coach? The e’er-maligned Randy Sanders, who may have just found his niche as a mentor of qbs who’s not given the total latitude to outingenious himself as an offensive coordinator.

Miss State, on the other hand, found the perfect opponent on the perfect day: Alabama, a team that like Miss State seeks to “reduce mistakes by taking as few chances as possible at all times.” Rephrased in the local vernacular, that means “brokedick offense, y’all.” In a game where the strategy for both teams was NOT making mistakes, the offense that settled for field goals was going to lose. Mike Shula, paging Mike Shula…
The lame comparison would be the [NAME REDACTED] firing sparked by Croom–that won’t happen, since Shula’s done a good job, recruited well, and been so bland that hitting him with the nastiest of criticisms has been difficult. Another year of meh would have to follow to place an UA alum with a shiny family name, a ten-win season, and no other obvious brand name coaching candidates out there in real jeopardy of losing his job.
The Crimson-White, however, may wish to print a correction.

Wake Forest. The Jim Grobe farewell tour begins now. The single greatest season in Wake Forest history. There’s a long list of sayings that compare to this:
–”The cleanest toilet in Guizhou province”
–”The richest man in Laos”
–”The smartest Irish setter I’ve ever met”
Wake beats the unpredictable Boston College Eagles 21-14, sending mancrushed Matt Ryan to defeat despite a 400 yard passing performance. Wake has Florida State, Maryland, and Virginia Tech still on the docket. They won’t win them all, but they could by probability certainly win one, by luck win two, and by the alignment of certain planets and some very powerful santeria spells win all three. They’re currently en route to the championship in Jacksonville; we’re rooting like hell for them, and not just because of the awesome name of their WR fake in the run game, the “orbit sweep.” See? Their run game’s like something Werner Von Braun would invent….

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He aims for the stars! And sometimes he hits London…

Buys: Mike Tranghese. For the second straight week, the marquee game in all the land will be a Big East Matchup. Louisville/Rutgers will be the game of the week. Say that three times, and the Candyman will come and take you home–you might have thought that before the season.
When we were making Cs in Economics, though, we did actually learn a few things though. Harry Truman always wanted a one-armed economist, since they were forever telling him “well, on the other hand” whenever he was about to hear unequivocal good news. The Big East lost Miami and Virginia Tech to the ACC; they gained the ability to compete on the national stage in a different manner, though. Teams that formerly had to chalk two losses on their schedule suddenly found themselves bowl-eligible sitting at game one, the conference was able to add teams that expanded the recruiting base, and the Big East could shop around and add teams it saw as promising prospects on the national scene.

Mike Tranghese orchestrated much of this, and deserves his own special Laurel and Hardy handshake for his work. His revamping of the Big East just shows that the old saying is true: when life gives you lemons, throw them at someone until you concuss them. Then steal their wallet and buy a Corvette with a pussy magnet on their credit card.

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Tranghese: looks like he could use a Corvette, actually.
 
Jesus those are some of the best tits I've ever seen. I can't wait for 10 years down the road when every other broad has them.

PS, I want to thank you for providing my bathroom reading material for Monday and Tuesday each week. Your thread rules, bro :10_4_6:
 
J Galt said:
Jesus those are some of the best tits I've ever seen. I can't wait for 10 years down the road when every other broad has them.

PS, I want to thank you for providing my bathroom reading material for Monday and Tuesday each week. Your thread rules, bro :10_4_6:

Thanks, JGalt. Those are amazing titties and I'm glad you like the reads. That's what I read during the week and think others would like em too.

Glad to know you do.
 
Sorry for the light posting.

I'm in trial right now through tomorrow this week and Mon through Thurs next week. So light posting.

Two thoughts:

NC State is a buy or about to become a buy now that they are catching 17 against Clemson.

For you D-1AA players, my trial counsel says to take Dayton this week +35 or so against USD. He's a USD alum and big booster of the program. He says USD is down and Dayton is getting too many points.
 
Kyle Wright out for Miami-Maryland

KYLE WRIGHT TO MISS MAGICAL MIAMI FOOTBALL. WEEPING TO COME.

Kyle Wright unfortunately will miss Miami’s next game against Maryland. Which will be magical. And special. Like all Miami football games. Especially the ones with 41K in the stands for a conference game.
Wright’s injury is to the bone on the inside of his right thumb. He totally didn’t break it slamming it in a drawer, or having a teammate pound on it with the butt of his Glock. He most definitely didn’t injure it in an attack at the hands of an enraged and…especially alert and enthusiastic Michael Irvin, who did not attempt to bite off Kyle’s hand after the VT game.
“You’re terrible, son! Just terrible! Playmaker gonna make a roster move all by himself here…Give me that hand reearrrrrgghhhhhAIIIIIGGGHHH…WE READY! WE READY!”
But as with any place that when spelled backwards reads “I MAIM,” you don’t have to make anything up. Here’s audio of Kyle Wright’s dad, for example, getting into a shouting match with Miami fans displeased with his son’s performance. (HT:Eye on the U.) Florida: the state of nature! Like the one Hobbes wrote about, not the cuddly type that doesn’t bite or shoot you for crack money.
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Welcome to Miami! Your time here will be nasty, brutish, and short.
 
Blog Roundup from www.edsbs.com

BLOGTOBERFEST! NO, YOU SHOULDN’T HAVE SAID THAT EDITION

–Charlie Weis on when he gets his autograph seekers:

Like the seemingly innocuous little tangent he stumbled onto recently about Notre Dame students showing up outside his office at 4:30 a.m., trolling for autographs…

And then he answered one question too many: Is there a better time to catch you for that?

“No, that’s the safe bet,” he said, and then paused and shook his head. “And I just should not have said that.”


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He just wants an autograph, Charlie. And your love.

–Andy discovers something truly bizarre: Urban Meyer tells his staff to go home at 11:00 p.m. This is around the time of night when Nick Saban used to call his LSU staff together for punji-stick fights and a quick Dexatrim before the second 11-hour shift. To the pain!

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Saban’s staff, seen here prepping for the second shift back in the day at LSU.

JoePa improving. We post this both as news, and as expose, since the ads on the site are for the “McRib Farewell Tour II.” Those lying bastards–you know it’ll be back in the spring. And yet you crave more…

–The Aggies lose their school president to the Defense Department. Mike Leach is rolling with laughter on the floor of his office at this news. No, really, he is. We’d put thousands on it.

–Different Leach/Leech: Iowa congressman Jim Leach, the asswipe who tacked on anti-internet gambling legislation to a port security bill, gets his asswipe status confirmed by losing his election on Tuesday and becoming a soon-to-be ex-congressman. The best part about it: you could still bet on his loss on any number of major wagering sites on Tuesday. Fuck yeah!

–Brian cannily points out that having Craig James sitting next to Doug Flutie in a studio is just plain wrong. We’d never thought of this before, but having a beneficiary of the SMU scandal sitting next to the Mulleted Marvel is a jarring study in contrasts, like having James Carville talking next to a nude Rachel Weisz in the same screen. It looked odd before, but now it’ll set off bells in our head when we see it. That should quiet things down a bit in there.

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Wait, Carville was in the frame? We missed him.

–All things, all at once though. The death of Bryan Pata has thrown us for a disproportionately large loop, and we’re not sure why. Out of Kilter’s got more on the Pata tragedy at Miami. They point out Greg Cote’s obviously heartbroken column on Pata, which we quote liberally from below:

Death is never choosy. Doesn’t play favorites. Doesn’t care who you are. It will take John F. Kennedy Jr. in a small plane, Dale Earnhardt Sr. in a fast car, a homeless man beaten by bats, Sonny Bono on a ski slope, Bryan Pata in a Kendall apartment, or someone you will never hear of who just slipped in his bathtub and hasn’t even been missed yet.

Death, though, overwhelms everything, every time, at least in the time when we force ourselves to bow heads, for just a moment, between the regular beat of life, between the cheering or the resumption of complaint.
In that moment, in a fleeting spasm of clarity, we understand that a 5-4 record is just what it is and not anything more: a disappointment.
We understand then that this UM football season didn’t become a tragedy until a bullet erased Bryan Pata for no good reason at all.
 
Morning Coffee from BurntOrangeNation.com

Morning Coffee
By HornsFan Section: Quick Hits
Posted on Thu Nov 09, 2006 at 08:59:56 AM EST

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The growing rift between the Big 12 South and North divisions is no joke, writes Mark Kiszla of the Denver Post. "What's wrong with this picture?" Kiszla asks. "The Big 12 needs to get its act together. Work together. Learn to play together. Or let football teams with too little common ground go their separate ways."

That may sound drastic, but is it really when the Southern division champion has won the last three Big 12 title games by a combined score of 141-13? Even within this season, in games between teams from separate divisions, the team from the South is 13-3.

What are some potential solutions? Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops suggests the league scrap the conference championship game, for starters. "It would probably be great if you threw out the Big 12 championship game and just crown your (regular-season) champion and play everybody like the Big Ten does, or the Pac-10," Stoops said during a teleconference with reporters. "You could play an extra conference game, get away from the divisions and mix up the teams you are not playing each year."

Coaches across the league understand that the decision is about making money, and isn't likely to change soon, but the points of objection are legitimate. Whether the conference keeps its conference title game or not, the problems predicted by Tom Osborne when this conference was founded have come true. The South is dominating the conference at a level that's not good for anyone involved. Time to make a change.

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ABC Sports has released its coverage map for Saturday night's college football coverage, and a majority of the country will have their eyes on the Longhorns. The blue area shaded in the map below indicates the regions of the country which will receive the Texas-Kansas State game at 7:00 p.m. As noted by Andrew earlier this week, this could be a chance for Texas to showcase its strength to a national audience. Or, should it lay an egg, plant seeds of doubt.

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Remember when Iowa State was supposed to be a strength on the schedule? It hasn't exactly worked out that way. Cyclone coach Dan McCarney was fired/resigned yesterday after his team dropped its sixth conference game of the season this past Saturday. Elsewhere from Texas' September schedule, North Texas coach Darrell Dickey was shown the door with three years remaining on his contract. The Mean Green are 2-7.

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Mack Brown says that he wants more weight placed on the human voters in the BCS formula, and understandably so. "I'd like to think that even with the flaws of the coaches' poll or the writers' poll or the different polls we have, at least you have eyes looking at it and people who are basing [their vote] on what they feel, strength of schedule and the way a team is playing."
His complaint is slightly off base, though. What Mack really wants is for the statisticians who create the computer formulas to be able to factor in more context into their algorithms. Per the current BCS rules, the computers are essentially operating with one hand tied behind their back. Restricted from factoring in margin of victory, the formulas relatively overvalue wins, losses, and strength of schedule. If university presidents are unwilling to embrace a playoff format, they at least need to look long and hard about reforming the regulations on the computer formulas. If not, the excessively rigid and conservative non-conference scheduling that Bob Stoops fears are sure to become the norm.
 
Calvalcade of Whimsey from CFN.com

Cavalcade of Whimsy - The Election Edition

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By Pete Fiutak
CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Nov 6, 2006

On election day, Pete Fiutak, in the latest Cavalcade of Whimsy, outlines his platform for what should be changed in college football, provides a test for the top 25 pollsters, and looks at how close Hawaii's Colt Brennan might come to setting all the single-season passing records.


By Pete Fiutak


If this column sucks, it’s not my fault … I typed it while flipping the bird, and Pitt head coach Dave Wannstedt suspended me.

Of course, the offense is a gimmick and can’t ever work at the collegiate level. Yeah, right … Is anyone paying attention to what Colt Brennan is doing out in Hawaii? The NCAA record for touchdown passes in a season is 54, set in 1990 by Houston’s David Klingler, but that also included a pile-it-on 11 scoring throws against Eastern Washington. Klingler also set an NCAA single-season record with 374 completions and for total offense with 5,221 yards. The record for passing yards in a season is 5,833, set in 2003 by B.J. Symons. If you count the Hawaii Bowl, which the Warriors have already accepted an invite to, Brennan’s on pace to complete 385 passes for 5,527 yards and 60 touchdowns. Watch for him to be in almost all the Heisman top fives, and be one of the front-runners going into next year.

Yeah, but the Man Law ads are sort of entertaining … Now that it’s month three of the college football season, it’s time to start changing up the creative on some of the ads that fans have had to sit through over and over and over again.


- The Enterprise Rent-a-Car ad with the three “let’s go girls” who loosen their smart neckerchiefs as they’re about to Thelma & Louise it on a wild weekend of sangrias, feeling sharing, getting hit on by married men, and yelling woo hoo has gone from kitschy to nails on a chalkboard.

- I don’t fear another terrorist attack for my own personal safety; I fear one because of the outpouring of endless, mundane Up with America songs that will follow and used ad nauseam in various car ads. John, I’m know it’s Our Country. I live here. Thanks for selling out your pride and patriotism to pitch a few trucks.

- I suggest Michigan State and North Carolina use the eHarmony.com 29-point personality profile to find their new head coach, and maybe get a few smooches.

Someday, some kid will do a Billy “White Shoes” Johnson and will bring the house down … Since you can’t really celebrate touchdowns in college football, so I’m hoping for all the tame, retro celebrations coming back. So far, the best one this year was done by Boise State’s Jerad Rabb after catching a scoring pass against Fresno State. When an offensive lineman came over to celebrate, Rabb just shook his hand.

The punishment should be having to wear the Indiana warm-up pants for two weeks … Kelvin Sampson gets nailed by the NCAA after knowingly blowing off the rules by making 577 extra phone calls to recruits while at Oklahoma, and now he’s going to make $1.1 this year as the head coach at Indiana and $1.6 million in each of the next six seasons. Meanwhile, former Oklahoma QB Rhett Bomar’s Sooner career is over after taking roughly $7,400, and he can’t play for Sam Houston State until he gives the money to charity. Insert your own comment about the hypocrisy in the system.

The 270-pound diamond in the rough … In the LSU win over Tennessee, 252-pound Volunteer defensive end Xavier Mitchell had a free shot on Tiger QB JaMarcus Russell. Despite getting hit with full force, Russell bounced away like he was hit by a soft breeze and got his pass off. Between Russell’s size, the strength, and a thunderbolt of a right arm, some NFL quarterback coach somewhere has to be drooling at the prospect of working with him. It’ll take Russell a few years, but you just don’t pick quarterbacks with his physical tools off a tree.

A few years ago, John L. Smith and Larry Coker might have been here … Talk about your decisions, who’s the coach of the year? How can it not be Wake Forest’s Jim Grobe after he led his injury-plagued team in the ACC title race? How can it not be Rice’s Todd Graham, who has taken an impossible situation and made the Owls close to bowl eligibility in his first year? How can it not be San Jose State’s Dick Tomey for taking a program considered among the toughest in the country to turn around and leading it to the verge of a winning season and a bowl game? How can it not be Kansas State’s Ron Prince for taking a young team full of inexperience and getting it bowl eligible? There’s no wrong answer.

Of course, if Taylor Hicks was running and you could vote by cell phone, the turnout would be at an all-time high … As part of the media, it’s supposed to be my duty to remind everyone to vote, since that’s the American thing to do. I’d like to amend that. Only vote if you’re not an idiot. I know, I know, it’s everyone’s right and privilege (for the most part), but only informed people should vote. There should be a simple test that you must pass to prove that you actually know what the candidate you’re voting for stands for before you’re able to place you’re soon-to-be-hacked-into/lost electronic ballot. If you’re planning on voting based on what the TV ads are telling you, stay home and find something shiny to play with. May I suggest tin foil?
With that in mind …

Harris Poll voters … Call me! … Before any of the pollsters in the Harris and Coaches’ polls get to cast their votes for the top 25 rankings, each one should actually know something about the teams they’re voting for. I’ve devised a quick quiz that I demand each one take before blindly handing their ballot over to their sports information directors or secretaries. Get one wrong, and you shouldn’t be voting.

1) How many touchdowns did Oklahoma’s Adrian Peterson score in this week’s win over Oklahoma State? (Yes, a trick question in two ways to immediately weed out the undesirables.)
2) Name the Boise State star running back who’s currently fourth in the nation in rushing and has scored 20 touchdowns.
3) Name the Rutgers starting quarterback. (I absolutely guarantee you we’d whack out 80% of the voters on this one. You shouldn’t be able to vote for a team in the top 15, Arkansas currently excluded, if you can’t name its starting quarterback.)
4) Name any three Ohio State defensive players, and you must spell the star linebacker’s name correctly.
5) Name one Wake Forest Demon Deacon.

The C.O.W. airing of the grievances followed by the feats of strength
I’m Pete Fiutak, and I’m asking for your vote to become the Grand Poobah of College Football. Unlike most of the candidates running for office, I’ll give my clear-cut stand on the issues at every turn and won’t simply vote the party line. For example, on border security, I’m absolutely for building a fence between Oklahoma and Texas (sorry, I went away for a moment and was replaced by Rick Reilly). Here are my ten campaign promises and stances … Vote for Pedro!

10. The war on drugs
Until the players prove they can band together and show some teeth, I’m going to use the system in place to clean up the game. Screw civil liberties. Human beings aren’t supposed to be 260 pounds with single-digit body fat and be able to run 4.5 40-yard dashes. At least, most aren’t. My plan: Each player will have blood taken once a year at a random time, and it’ll be saved until the time comes when we can adequately test for human growth hormones. To be eligible to play college football, you have to sign a deal that says if you get caught using any sort of steroid or HGH, you’re done and your scholarship will be taken away. If we discover a proper test at some point up until five years after your eligibility is up and a steroid or HGH is detected, you’re liable to the school for the full value of your scholarship. It’s this simple: know everything you’re putting into your body at all times. If you have a question, ask.

9. I believe that children are our future
I will move the student sections to between the 40s and students will get to attend games for free. The game is played by student-athletes and should first and foremost be for the students.

8. Voter reform
The polling system is a joke and must be cleaned up. With millions or dollars and the dreams of so many teams at stake, it can no longer be left up to a bunch of coaches who don’t have time to know anything other than the team they just played and a bunch of “dignitaries” that go by whatever the other polls tell them to do. I’ll create a blue-ribbon panel of 15 experts who’ll do nothing for three months but watch the games. My college football version of the Algonquin Roundtable will create a true human poll that will count for half of the BCS formula. Keeping with tradition, I’ll allow the Coaches and Harris Poll to count for 1/4th, and the computers to count for 1/4th.

7. Job training
It’s not fair that bowl teams get extra practices while teams that sit home don’t get the extra work. Unlike the NFL, coaches get a limited amount of time with their teams and players, so every second is planned and precious. When school’s not in session, I’ll allow for more practices and let the non-bowl teams get an equal amount of work in.

6. Improving education
Here’s my trade off. Players can turn pro whenever they want to in exchange for freshman ineligibility. Every player gets four years of eligibility, but their first year in college will be spent practicing, learning, and getting acclimated to the school work and university environment. The pressure needs to be taken off the first year. They’ll be better students, better players, and the all-around on-field product will be better.

5. Campaign reform: I’ll move the date the Heisman is awarded
While the Heisman announcement just after the regular season ends in early December is always a nice bridge between the end of the year and the start of the bowls, it’s not necessarily fair. If last year’s vote was calculated after the Rose Bowl, Vince Young, not Reggie Bush, would’ve been the winner. If you’re going to give the honor to the player who had the best season, the voters need to have the big money game to go on.

4. Read my lips: No … new … D-IAA games
I know the D-IAAers had more than their share of big wins this year against D-I teams, but that still doesn’t make the games of any interest. My position on this has been stated several times before, and as your servant, I vow to make it happen. Every D-I team has to start the season with a D-IAA home game that doesn’t count towards the overall record or the BCS standings. Use it as a live preseason dress rehearsal for the real thing, make a ton of money for the athletic department, and give the fan base a nice late August afternoon in the sun. Then, no more games against D-IAA teams the rest of the way.

3. Immigration: Penn State and Notre Dame will move to the Big East
It’s time. Penn State, geographically, is a square peg in the Big Ten’s round hole, while Notre Dame already has a history in the Big East thanks to the basketball program. I will help create a ten-team Big East that will put it on par with the other BCS leagues once and for all. Finally, our national mathematical nightmare will be over and the Big Ten will actually have ten teams.

2. Everyone will play everyone else in conference play
Following the Pac 10’s model, I will do away with the money-grubbing, gimmicky conference championship games and force every team play every other team in its own conference to determine a true champion. That will mean just one non-conference game for each of the SEC and Big 12 teams, but most fans would rather see their team play a team like Kansas or Kentucky than get an extra game against UL Lafayette or Idaho.
1. Support the troops: It’s time for a playoff
My opponents are happy with the status quo. A vote for Fiu is a vote for change. No, I’m not asking for some hokey 16-team tournament that negates the joy and importance of the regular season. All I want is one extra game. Use the BCS to determine the top four teams, take the top four conference winners (if you don’t win your conference, you can’t play for the national title) and play 1 vs. 4, 2 vs. 3, and then have one more game to determine your true national champion.

I’m Pete Fiutak and I approve this message (shot of me with a plastic perma-smile on my face while holding a baby and petting a dog)

Provocative musings and tidbits to make every woman want you and every man want to be with you (or vice versa).


- HBO’s Real Sports is the strongest magazine-format show on television. ESPN’s College GameDay is the standard for all pregame shows. It’s a shame that when Real Sports did its profile on the ESPN show, it was the fluffiest piece it’s done in years.

- Kudos to Wisconsin head coach Bret Bielema for taking advantage of the system. After a late first half Badger score, Bielema had his kickoff team go offsides three times to help kill the clock.

- Speaking of disappointments from the best in the media, Mike Tirico is fantastic, Tony Kornheiser is humorous, and Joe Thiesmann is, well, Mike Tirico is fantastic. It’s not working on the new Monday Night Football broadcast. Hopefully, Kornheiser has more in his bag than talking about his fantasy team.

- Everyone will be influenced by the highlights of Cal’s impressive win over UCLA. Unfortunately, I’m guessing no one actually watched the game to notice just how bad the defense was. Don’t assume the Bears are going to beat USC in a few weeks.

- Georgia Tech got ahead late against NC State with a James Johnson touchdown catch and went for the extra point to go up eight. Why not go for two? If Tech had missed, it would’ve been up seven, and there’s no way State would’ve gone for two if it got a last second touchdown. If Tech went for two and got it, the game would've been over.

- You might not like Bob Stoops, but he’s a dream coach for the fans. Fans always want their coach to be able to make the tough calls with conviction. Up one, his decision to go for the win against Texas A&M by going for it on fourth down on his own 30 was one for the ages.

My Heisman ballot this week would be … 1. Troy Smith, QB Ohio State, 2. Mike Hart, RB Michigan, 3. Brady Quinn, QB Notre Dame, 4. Colt Brennan, QB Hawaii, 5. Ray Rice, RB Rutgers
C.O.W. shameless gimmick item … The weekly five Overrated/Underrated aspects of the world1) Overrated: Never messing with a streak ... Underrated: The Clemson purple uniforms
2) Overrated: Georgia 2006 … Underrated: Tennessee 2005
3) Overrated: Kirstie Alley in a bikini … Underrated: Charlie Weis in a hooded-sweatshirt
4) Overrated: Reese and Ryan ... Underrated: Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups
5) Overrated:
John L. Smith ... Underrated: Being happy where you are

Sheer hubris run amok … The three lines this week that appear to be a tad off. Going 11-13 so far, here’s the official kiss of death for three teams … 1) Washington State -1 over Arizona State, 2) Ohio State -22.5 over Northwestern, 3) Minnesota -1.5 over Michigan State

Sorry this column sucked, but it wasn’t my fault …
I couldn’t get out of the way on the sidelines and broke my leg. That doesn’t mean I wasn’t able to yell at my assistants for making the wrong calls throughout the column. Get better, JoePa.
 
RJ - nice thread as always with good info. Really like the Navy play and wish I could get your number. I went to play that game today and found I missed the boat after Dr. Slob came with the steam. GL this weekend :cheers:
 
Timh--Thanks. I think I've got a good card this week. Might add a few more huge dogs later.

BTW, Fuck Dr. Bob.
 
Salon's Picks from EDSBS.com

SOLON’S PICKS, WEEK 11:

Well, I decided to honor the Stardust’s closing by giving money back to the ‘books. To quote John Facenda (from “Black Sunday,” the NFL Films Super Bowl XVIII piece), “It was a defeat from which no honor could be salvaged.” Nothing I can do, really, except try to shake it off and get back at it.

It was by far my worst week since I started writing this column, and from a historical standpoint, I hadn’t had a 2-8 week since 1992. Then, I shut it down for the season, and came back strong the next year; this time, I’ll ride it out. Certainly, the first part of my 2006 was considerably better than the first part of my 1992, so my hope is that it’s just a blip, and I can come back this week with some winners.

For the season, I still sit at 57-43, a winning percentage of 57%, not dissimilar to my winning percentage of 58% last season. Last season at this time, by winning percentage was around 52-54%. Lots of road teams and favorites this week. Here are the selections:

THURSDAY:

Louisville (-6) v. RUTGERS

First things first, I think Rutgers is a good team. That said, I do not believe they are an ‘8-0 team,’ if that makes any sense; I think their schedule to date has papered over some deficiencies. Wins over Illinois and Ohio look better now than they did at the time, but the win over UNC looks worse, and their only noteworthy wins are over the rather modest collection of South Florida, Navy, and Pitt. When you consider that Navy lost its QB in the 1Q that win is not as impressive; even if you do not downgrade Rutgers for that win it is a relatively light resume. Of more note is that while the Rutgers D has been great this season, they have yet to face a truly good O; no doubt they did a good job against the Pitt passing game and against the Navy running game (with the obvious caveat), but they have yet to face an offense that truly has any balance. In fact, while it is obvious that Louisville will have the best passing game that Rutgers has faced this season, given the Navy QB situation I think it may also be true that the Louisville O may also present the best running game they have faced. Given the weak offenses they have played, I give the Rutgers D little margin for error, and there seems to be plenty. Rutgers did well against Pitt QB Palko, but much less well against USF QB Grothe; even UNC QB Dailey had a pretty good game against the Rutgers D. In any event, the Louisville passing game is on a much different level than any of this lot. Rutgers has been pretty good against the run, but UConn freshman RB Brown–a decent back, but not this good–absolutely tore them up for 199 yards in their last game; normally, you could just dismiss this as an aberration, but given that they’ve really played no other decent RBs this season, it’s of particular note. The Rutgers passing game is nonexistent–there’s really no reason that a QB that has a running game as good as Rutgers does should be so ineffective, but he is ( 5.97 ypp, with a 5-7 ratio)–but Rutgers has a good running game and they will get their yards, little doubt. But given that Louisville will be able to pretty much ignore the Rutgers passing game they should be able to keep them in check. In the final analysis, while Louisville’s O will be kept in check somewhat, I do not think they will be stopped and Rutgers’ one-dimensional O will not be able to keep up. As long as Louisville can keep their heads after last week they should get ahead of this number.

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Ray Rice: will attempt to completely demolish the BCS picture tonight.

SATURDAY:

ILLINOIS (-3) v. Purdue

I think Illinois turned it around a while back but they have yet to turn it into any end product. Since the Ohio game, they have played Penn State and Wisconsin tough on the road, and Ohio State tough at home–three of the four best teams in the Big 10–but they have yet to manage a win. You wouldn’t guess it, but Illinois has a pretty good D; in Big 10 play, they’ve only given up 109 ypg rushing ( 3.04 ypc) and 179 ypg passing (6.03 ypp) with a 4-4 ratio. Purdue’s O this season is not your typical Tiller O, and they have struggled against good defenses. Wisconsin held them to a FG and Penn State shut them out; Illinois’ D is not in that class, but it is not too far off and I think the Purdue O–which only gained 373 yds against a Mich St D that, outside of Indiana, probably has the worst pass D in the conference–will struggle to move the ball against them; the only QB who has had a good game against the Illinois D is Wisc QB Stocco, and please note that OSU QB Smith and Iowa QB Tate have been among their opponents. The Purdue D is pretty weak; to illustrate, they gave up nearly 400 yards to a very weak Penn State O. They have, in particular, struggled against the run; opposing RBs have averaged 5.73 ypc in Big 10 play. Illinois has averaged 161 ypg rushing (4.46 ypc) in Big 10 play; furthermore, they have averaged 134 ypg and 3.98 ypc the last three weeks against PSU, Wisc, and OSU. They will find the going easier this week against the Purdue D. Illinois QB Williams is not great but he is serviceable as a passer, and so long as he avoids mistakes it should be enough to let the Illinois running game and D take this one.

Navy (-12.5) v. EASTERN MICHIGAN
Navy has suffered a downgrade at the QB position with the season-ending injury to Hampton, but his replacement Kaheaku-Enhada has stepped it up and the net result appears to only be a small minus. If you eliminate the Rutgers game, where he had to come off the bench and was not entirely prepared, under Kaheaku-Enhada the Navy O has rushed for 246 yds against ND, and 435 yds against Duke; Navy’s overall offensive effectiveness does seem to be less–partly because Hampton was a better passer–but they still apparently have enough to overwhelm teams that are not their equivalents (given their authoritative win over an improving Duke team last week). EMU’s D has not been too bad in MAC play this season–21 ppg and 337 ypg–but their run D is very average, giving up 179 ypg and 4.70 ypc, and they have had trouble with mobile QBs; opposing QBs are averaging 42 ypg rushing on average, and those that can run have. Navy’s D is poor statistically, but as I have pointed out elsewhere they tend to give up considerably less points than you would expect given the yardage they give up ( i.e., they bend, but don’t break) and the EMU O is not particularly prolific; EMU has yet to score more than 21 points this season and they are averaging 16 ppg and 292 ypg. Adding to their offensive problems are injuries; QB Schmitt–the slightly better of the two QBs EMU rotates–did not play last week and he is listed as questionable. EMU’s O consists of mostly the QB running or throwing–the two leading rushers on the team are their QBs, so being limited at that position hurts them even more than one would usually expect. In addition, their top RB is out for the season, and their next RB in line, Harrison–and, keep in mind that we are talking about someone who only has 116 yards for the season–missed the last game and is questionable for this week. Navy’s pass D is really bad, but the EMU O is so limited that they will not be able to take advantage, and I think Navy will win this game with ease.

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EMU!

Rice (+14) v. TULSA
I have been a big fan of Tulsa the last couple of seasons; I think this is the first time I am picking against them. http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum/Early in the season, I stated that I expected Rice’s O shift in scheme to take root earlier than normal due to talent at the WR position; and it has, already. The Rice O was stuffed against UCLA, Texas, and Florida State, but against non-BCS opponents they have averaged 36 ppg and 409 ypg, and they seem to be getting better as the season progresses. Since the Florida State game, Rice’s running game is averaging 196 ypg and 5.35 ypc, and Rice’s passing game is averaging 239 ypg and 6.82 ypp, with a 15-3 ratio. Tulsa has a good pass D but they will be hard-pressed to shut down the Rice pass O the way they have been playing. And, the Tulsa run D has been exploitable; they have only faced one elite run O–Navy–but they have struggled against a couple of mid-level running games; BYU and Houston went for an average of 230 ypg and 5.88 ypc. Rice’s problem is on the other side of the ball; their D ranks among the worst in the nation. Despite this, Tulsa’s O this season has not been overly prolific–25 ppg and 334 ypg in ConfUSA play this season–and they do not seem to be the sort of team that is going to go off for a lot of points (their season high against 1-A opposition this season is 35 points against Memphis). Additionally, I think Tulsa will be a little down after losing the game to Houston last week, a loss that puts a serious dent in their chances to defend their ConfUSA title. I think Tulsa will win, but I think Rice will score enough points to keep it close to this number.

Houston (-4.5) v. SOUTHERN METHODIST
Houston needs to keep it together this week after their win over Tulsa last week, but as long as they can do that they should be fine. SMU has definitely improved this season, but I think this may be beyond them. Houston’s D is not too strong, and they’ve had some uneven performances; they gave up over 400 yards to Miami (Fla) and La-Lafayette, and over 500 yds to Central Florida, but they held Tulane, UTEP, and Tulsa to less than 250 yards each, and held Southern Miss to 325. Fortunately, even if the Houston D does not show up, they are unlikely to get torched by the SMU O. SMU’s running game is very modest; outside of a 226 yard performance rushing the ball against Arkansas State, they have maxed out at 133 yards, and they are averaging 100 ypg ( 3.13 ypc) in conference play. The SMU passing game is a little more effective–199 ypg (6.87 ypp) in conference play–but, once again, this is not overly prolific and they are not likely to be in a position to exploit the inconsistent Houston D. SMU has a good D–or, better put, a good rush D (56 ypg in conference play)–and, much like their D, the Houston running game has been inconsistent (198 yds v. UTEP, 227 yds v. Tulsa, but only 23 yds v. La-Lafayette), and I do not think the Houston rushing game will be a factor. The one area in which Houston has not been inconsistent is their passing game. QB Kolb has always been legit, and he is having a good season; 66% completions, 8.93 ypp, and a 20-3 ratio against 1-A opponents, and note that those numbers include games against Miami (Fla) and Tulsa, two of the better pass defenses in the nation. As it happens, SMU’s pass D is very poor; for the season, they have given up 262 ypg and 7.28 ypp, despite facing a very modest slate of QBs; the passing Os they have faced that I would rate in the top half of the country are Texas Tech (against a QB making his first start), Tulane, and UTEP–who averaged 344 ypg, 7.64 ypp, with a 9-2 ratio–and they have also faced North Texas and Arkansas State, who I rate as two of the three worst passing offenses in the nation. Certainly, Kolb will be the best QB they have faced, and I think he will have a big day; given that the line is so short, I think that even with their other inconsistencies the Houston edge here will be more than enough to get ahead of this number.

South Carolina (+13.5) v. FLORIDA
I think Florida is a great team with one of the best defenses in the nation, but their offense is just too inconsistent to cover this sort of number against legitimate opposition. South Carolina’s rush D is apparently exploitable, if a team is good enough (witness Arkansas’ 273 yards last week); Florida is probably not good enough. Florida is averaging 150 ypg and 4.42 ypc rushing on the season; when you take out the games against the poor defenses on their schedule–specifically, UCF and Kentucky–those numbers drop to 130 ypg and 3.88 ypc. South Carolina held down the Auburn running game (126 yds), and also held a decent Vandy running game to 133 yds. Florida’s offensive strength is their passing game, which is efficient but not overly prolific; 198 ypg and 7.91 ypp with a 12-8 ratio in SEC play, and they have only gone over 200 yards against Kentucky and Vandy. The South Carolina pass D has been uneven this season; they have dominated lesser QBs and struggled against the better ones. Florida’s QBs certainly rank among the better they have faced but I am willing to bet that even if they have a good game it will not result in too much production. On the other side of the ball, South Carolina was shut out by Georgia, but recovered to play well against the other strong Ds they have faced, scoring 17 against Auburn and 24 against UT, averaging 370 yds on offense in those games. Florida’s D is probably a step up from those units but it is not a massive jump. SCar is stating that Mitchell will start at QB this week, but Newton may very well play in a backup role; in any event, it is likely that HC Spurrier will use his QBs in the most effective manner possible. Florida’s pass D has been strong this season, but SCar presents more of a challenge at WR than any team the Gators have faced thus far this season, and I expect this to be their worst performance against the pass this season. SCar had no running game last week, but that was primarily down to an injury to RB Boyd (undisclosed prior to the game), but he will be back this week and he will be able to provide a little balance. Florida will almost certainly win this one at home, but Spurrier will make them sweat for it and I like for it to be close at the final gun.

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Steve Spurrier. We’re familiar.

Texas Christian (-8) v. NEW MEXICO
New Mexico has stepped it up since inserting QB Porterie into the starting lineup, winning the 3 games in which he has started. I think the task before him is too tall an order this week, however; the TCU D will be by far the best he has faced, with the possible exception of Wyoming’s; in that game (admittedly, before he became the starter) he was ineffective, going 7-17 for 68 yards. The TCU D is comparable to Wyoming’s strong D; they have given up more than 20 points once, to BYU’s offensive machine, and they are giving up an average of 13 ppg this season, despite having played Big 12 teams Baylor and Texas Tech. Outside of BYU QB Beck, no other QB has had a particularly good game against them (Utah QB’s Ratliff’s statistics were very average, outside of a 49 yd TD pass that was tipped by a defender and went right to his WR); all other QBs are averaging 5.33 ypp against them with a 3-7 ratio. New Mexico’s running game will likely not provide too much assistance for QB Porterie; they are only averaging 93 ypg and 2.87 ypc this season, and the TCU D is giving up an average of 62 ypg and 2.54 ypc and have only allowed Utah to hit 100 yards rushing against them (129). TCU’s O hit a bit of a snag last week–29 FD, 416 yds, but only 25 points–but I think they will be more focused and do a better job this week. New Mexico’s D started the season pretty strong; oddly enough, they seem to have started trending downward coinciding with the insertion of QB Porterie into the lineup; they have given up 29 ppg and 344 ypg to UNLV, Utah, and CSU, none of which can really be described as having a good O (Utah’s is fair, but the others are poor). Against mid-level teams with conventional passing games (UTEP, Wyo, UNLV, Utah, and CSU) New Mexico has given up 240 ypg and 6.92 ypp with a 12-5 ratio. I expect TCU QB Ballard–7.03 ypp this season–to at least match that level of production. Of perhaps more importance for the TCU O, Ballard ran the ball 14 times last week for 84 yards; given that he was injured in the first game of the season and reinjured in the Utah game, this suggests that he is back to full strength and will be able to run the offense to its full potential henceforth. New Mexico has only given up 110 ypg and 3.22 ypc this season, but for the most part they have avoided good rushing attacks this season. That said, they have been pretty good against the good running Ds they have faced (AFA, Mizzou), but TCU has been pretty solid running the ball this season–157 ypg and 4.06 ypc–and they will be able to move the ball on a good New Mexico D. I expect the TCU D to handle the New Mexico O, and for the TCU O to do enough to get ahead of this number on the road.

OKLAHOMA STATE (-16.5) v. Baylor
OSU QB Reid has had a great season, but had a howler last week–much like I did. I am willing to throw that game out–Texas is the class of the Big 12 once again, and playing in Austin is never easy–and, if I do, there’s little doubt that Reid’s season has been among the best in the nation. He has thrown for 10.35 ypp with a 12-4 ratio, even after you throw out the games against Sun Belt opponents. The slate of opponents he has faced has not been especially strong, but Baylor does not bring a particularly strong pass D to the contest; they have given up 7.07 ypp with a 18-12 ratio this season, despite playing Army and Colorado, two of the weaker pass Ds in the nation. And, as impressive as the OSU passing game has been, their running game has arguably been better; 192 ypg and 5.29 ypc in Big 12 play, and only Texas has held them to less than 193 yards. Baylor held K State’s weak rushing game to 45 yards in their Big 12 opener, but since that game conference opponents are dominating them on the ground, averaging 227 ypg and 5.89 ypc. While most of these opponents have had good running games, you would be hard-pressed to argue that any of them are definitively better than the OSU running game. As good as things look on the offensive side of the ball for OSU, things look nearly as good for their much-maligned D. Baylor has gone to a Texas Tech-style offense this season, so their running game is not overly productive; 59 ypg and 3.01 ypc in Big 12 play. Against the pass, OSU is definitely exploitable; they have given up 229 ypg and 8.40 ypp with a 10-1 ratio in conference play. Fortunately for them, Baylor starting QB Bell is out for the season, and his replacement Szymanski is a downgrade; statistically, as a passer, Bell and Szymanski are comparable (Bell, 6.74 ypp with a 19-10 ratio; Szymanski, 6.83 ypp with a 2-2 ratio); but last week in his first start (against Texas Tech), Szymanski had an astonishing 22 rushes (for 25 yards) and 30 passes–and he suffered 6 sacks on the day, mostly without blitzing. I would rate the OSU DL as better than TT’s–OSU has 30 sacks on the season, whereas TT has 24 even after the 6 last week–and I think that while Szymanski will almost certainly have a better game than he did last week, he will throw shorter passes that will be easier for the OSU D to deal with, and as a result they should be able to defend the pass better than they have thus far this season. I think the OSU O will be rampant this week and while Baylor will score some points they will not be able to keep up with the OSU O.

Oregon State (-2) v. UCLA
UCLA’s O impressed me last week but I think that was more down to the Cal D than the UCLA O. Cal is certainly a machine on O, but they do not have the best D; in any event, Oregon State has a stronger D and UCLA’s O will face a stiffer challenge this week. For the season, UCLA is averaging 108 ypg and 3.75 ypc rushing against BCS opponents. If last week is any indication, they will run the ball some but I do not think the running game will not be a deciding factor this week. OSU has recovered nicely from their flattening by Boise RB Johnson in week two, and they are only giving up 78 ypg and 2.47 ypc in Pac 10 play. OSU held the Cal running game to 132 yds rushing and held USC to 79 (albeit helped by USC abandoning the run after they fell behind); I cannot imagine that UCLA will match either of those teams’ levels of production. UCLA QB Cowan appears to have had a good game last week–but, in reality, he only had a good first half; after going 12-20, 203 yds in the 1H, he finished up the game going 10-20, 126 yds in the 2H–and until the final drive, when the score was 38-17 and Cal gave up on the game (the bastards), he had been 5-13 for 86 yards in the 2H. As a result, I am more inclined to view his performance as an aberration and not a sign of significant improvement on his part. UCLA QB Olson may suit up this weekend, but as I have pointed out previously, there’s not a whole lot of improvement even if you make the QB change; Cowan is averaging 6.48 ypp with a 5-6 ratio, and Olson is averaging 6.63 ypp with a 5-5 ratio against a slightly easier slate of pass defenses. Oregon State was thrown on by Cal, WSU, and USC–but these teams arguably have three of the four best QBs in the Pac 10, and almost certainly have the three best sets of WR; against Washington and ‘Zona State–teams closer to UCLA in terms of passing attacks–OSU gave up 5.02 ypp with an 0-2 ratio. UCLA will probably outperform those numbers this week, but I do not expect the UCLA passing game to have too much success. On the other side of the ball, OSU has gotten their running game going in Pac 10 play; while it is not especially prolific, RB Bernard is a decent back, and they are averaging 106 ypg and 3.28 ypp. It is unlikely they will have too much success against a strong UCLA run D, but I still expect them to outproduce the Bruins on the ground. The OSU advantage on O is in the passing game; OSU QB Moore has developed as a passer this season, and while he hasn’t thrown a lot of TDs–only 4 TDs in 6 Pac 10 games–he has had good production, throwing for 241 ypg and an impressive 8.75 ypp. UCLA has struggled against the pass this season; ND QB Quinn took them apart when he needed to, and for the season they have given up 7.44 ypp with a 15-8 ratio. These are not overly impressive numbers, and they are even less impressive when considering that without games against ‘Zona and Stanford–by far, the worst passing games in the Pac 10–those numbers rise to 8.37 ypp with a 14-4 ratio, and their last two opponents have each averaged over 10 ypp. OSU has already won at ‘Zona and at Washington this season, and I think they will keep it going this week in the Rose Bowl.

Other Games of Note:

ARKANSAS (-5.5) v. Tennessee
This isn’t a play because I still have some issues with the Arkansas pass D–and, they’ll have their hands full this week against a strong Vol passing game–but if they are going to get QB play like they did last week they are going to be damn near impossible to beat. I rate the UT D pretty highly, but I was surprised at how well LSU was able to run on them last week; in addition, when you consider that UGA, SCar, and Marshall all moved the ball on the ground against UT–not to mention AFA–they are up against it here. Arkansas has as good as running game as there is in the SEC, and they should rush for somewhere in the neighborhood of 200 yards on Saturday. UT will not have an answer; the UT running game is pretty much nonexistent at this point, and while RB Coker is expected to play I would imagine his effectiveness will be limited and I do not believe the UT run game will be a factor. QB Ainge is a game-time decision, and while QB City of Crompton looked good last week, there is a world of difference between playing in front of your home fans and playing in Fayetteville. Super Arkansas CB Houston will shadow WR Meachem, and if he can limit his effectiveness, the UT passing game will be severely compromised, whether Ainge plays or not. I like Arkansas to take this one at home.

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Dick, Johnson in same pic. If you don’t love this Arkansas roster, you have no sense of humor.

Oregon (+7.5) v. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
USC’s problems are well-documented, and despite their 42-0 win over lowly Stanford, they were quite fortunate to get to that number. Part of me thinks that at some point they will just turn it on, and start playing up to their potential–sort of like they did for the last 17 minutes or so of the Oregon State game–but another part of me thinks that it is too big an ask to overcome their talent losses in a conference as deep as the Pac 10 is this season. Still, even at this point they must like their chances to go to the Rose Bowl–all they need to do is win home games against Oregon and Cal, and a road game at struggling UCLA, and they will be the conference champs; and, if they can add a home win against ND to the mix, they can very possibly supplant Florida and Auburn as the most likely 1-loss team to stake their claim to the title game. Still, I actually came close to playing the Ducks here, until I realized that Oregon may very well be a fraud; considering the dubious nature of their win over Oklahoma, their best clear-cut win is over ‘Zona State–it looked good at the time, but in retrospect is much less impressive, and the win over Fresno–a game that was tied with 5 minutes to go–looks almost embarassing at this point. Cal and WSU are the two best teams they have played, and they lost to both of them–handily. USC’s conference resume, at least, looks little better; they struggled against a really bad ‘Zona team, and barely beat everyone else they have played (save Stanford), with the exception of the Beavers, to whom they lost. So, I don’t really know what to think. I rate these teams as pretty even, and if I had to, I’d go with Oregon this week because while the Ducks will be fully focused on the Trojans, I can’t help but think that USC will be more focused on next week’s game with Cal than this week’s with Oregon. Plus, +7.5 is a magic number that you always get excited about having.
 
Texas/Florida Own Spot for BCS MNC Game and Why Texas Will Kill Everyone

The Aftermath
By HornsFan Section: Football
Posted on Fri Nov 10, 2006 at 12:48:42 AM EST

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At last: chaos.

Rutgers' dramatic come from behind victory over Louisville bulldozed the one obstacle Texas assuredly could not overcome just by winning the remainder of its games. With the loss, the Big East is rendered irrelevant (fairly or not) in the national title picture.

We have now officially entered One Loss BCS Hell (or heaven, depending on your perspective), though for Texas, the surrounding scenery is hardly fire and brimstone.

Texas is by no means in the proverbial Driver's Seat to the national title game, but the path to Nirvana has taken a sharp turn from inordinate, which is where it was prior to Louisville's loss. While Burnt Orange Nation celebrates the newfound possibilities that exist because of Louisiville's loss, it's important that we not think too much about what must happen around us and focus very carefully on that which remains within our control.

Texas' path to the title game is dramatically different than that of every other team still in The Conversation. While most every other team must focus on navigating the muddy waters of their remaining schedule, Texas must focus on that, plus something else: style points. No team is as dependent on the quality of its victories as Texas is because no team is as dependent on the human voters as Texas is.

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Style points: not just for fashionistas anymore.

Just about every team remaining in the national title conversation - except Texas - has a marquee game remaining on its schedule. USC will face Notre Dame and California; the Irish and Bears face USC. Florida must win out and defeat the winner of the SEC West. Ohio State and Michigan will square off. Only Auburn sits in a similar position to Texas, needing to impress human voters with indubitable victories over remaining opponents.
Texas can't help itself with its remaining schedule. Either Texas A&M or Nebraska will lose on Saturday afternoon (they play one another). Texas either faces a B+ Aggie squad on the day after Thanskgiving, or it faces a B+ Nebraska squad on the day of the Big 12 championship. Either way, Texas' opportunity lies not with defeating A&M and Nebraska, but in dominating each and every game that it plays between now and the last chance that any human voter has a say in BCS voting.

Texas is playing for style points.

With Louisville's loss, the race for the second spot in the BCS game will be an amalgam of computer calculations and human voting. Texas can't and won't dramatically improve its stead in the former; its best shot at securing a spot in the national title game lies in sufficiently impressing the human voters that can factor what they see Texas do with their own eyes.

To make a long story short: It's Showtime. The road to the BCS Title Game lies in Texas finishing at #2 in the Coaches' and Harris' voters polls after the Michigan and Ohio State game. And to meet that goal, and do it with enough buffer to fend off the impending computer weakness, Texas must not only win, but look great doing so.

So when you tune in on Saturday and Thanksgiving weekend and on December 2nd to watch the Big 12 championship game, don't just root for Texas to win... Root for Texas to be in peak form, steamrolling their opponents in a way that tells voters, "Yes, this is the 2nd best team in the nation. They are the one loss team I vote to play for it all." Anything less will be insufficient.
 
3-0 start for the morning, +$1K.

Can't lose today. Profit is locked in now. If I get 2 more wins out of my day, I'll add Bama +18.
 
Thanks, BAR. Just need Texas and South Carolina to take advantage of the Rutgers win and get the Horns into the MNC and cover the 17.

Let's make some money today!
 
Let's hit UT. Thinking of adding Bama +18 too. Just too many points. Only thing that is holding me back is that LSU has the offense to cover that, even with Bama's D.
 
Bama fits into a catergory for me. The, as some would say, 'too good to be true' section. A good defense garnering 18 points. Now, Bama has played games tight at Tenny and UF this year as double digit dogs. That bolds well. Lets assume Bama gets around 10 points on offense. Do you think they can keep LSU under 28? Thats the way to cap this game IMO. I would lean Bama but I would hate to be wishing for 2 drives to cover in 4th qtr.
 
That's kind of how I'm looking at it. Bama doesn't have the offense to win this game or to make a comeback if needed. But they do have enough of an offense and a good enough defense to win a defensive struggle kind of game.

Still pondering it.
 
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