Week 11 NCAA Plays and Discussion

JumpOnBoard

JumpOnBoard

CTG Partner
Posted NCAA Record
Sides: 62-49 +18.83 units
Totals: 3-3 +1.86 units
Teasers: 9-13 +24.80 units
Parlays: 0-1 -3.00 units
Props: 1-0 +1.00 units



Putting this thread up much earlier this week as I've already locked in some plays and will have more throughout the week....will have progressive writeups and discussion throughout...-2.56 units on Saturday and only 3rd losing week of 10, so I'm not overly disappointed...but a couple of games went extremely bad and was shocked on just the outcome, but the manner in which it got there....Good luck this week guys...

Sides:

USC -7 (-114)...2 units...2.28/2.00... (Writeup below)

L'ville -6 (-103)...1 unit...1.03/1.00 (Writeup below) L (-2.08)
L'ville -5.5 (-105)..1 unit...1.05/1.00

Cincy +17.5 (-105)...1 unit...1.05/1.00 (Writeup below)
Cincy +18 (-105)......1 unit....1.05/1.00

added:

Indiana +19 (-101)....2 unit....2.02/2.00 (Writeup below)

Bammer +18 (-105)...2 units...2.10/2.00

UCF -1.5 (-105)....1 unit....1.05/1.00....

Tenny +5.5 (-105)....1 unit...1.05/1.00

Iowa ML +108...1 unit...1.00/1.08

tOSU -22.5 (-102)...2 units....2.04/2.00

Totals:

Kansas ST/Texas UNDER 49.5 (-105)...1 unit...1.05/1.00

Cal/Zona UNDER 45.5 (-105)....1 unit...1.05/1.00

Temple/Penn St UNDER 46 (-102)....2 units...2.04/2.00

Teasers:

4 Team/6 Point Teaser...2 units...2.00/6.00

USC -2
Pitt -1.5
Oklahoma -3
Wake +14.5


Will be adding a few more sides, totals, and a teaser in the morning...
 
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The game I plan on adding is L'ville and def will before it hits 7, but I'm curious to hear what anyone thinks the line movement will be on this one...

I think the home dog will get a lot of sharp play, so I'm thinking it may go down, therefore havent' played it...but really going to watch it...
 
I can't argue with taking USC at home..It's just that they have a bigger game on deck against CAL and Oregon is cathing more than a TD...USC just doesn't have that home run threat this year IMO...they play good in spots, and aren't consistent...Stewart is finally healthy for Oregon and I think you have to take the points in Oregon's biggest game of the year....just my opinion.

GL on rest of your plays bro.
 
undecided on the ville/rutgers, waiting to see what that line does as well...I just think Rutgers is disciplined, much more than WVU..they won't fumble and get dumb penalties and it isn't at papa johns.
 
HUNTDOG said:
I can't argue with taking USC at home..It's just that they have a bigger game on deck against CAL and Oregon is cathing more than a TD...USC just doesn't have that home run threat this year IMO...they play good in spots, and aren't consistent...Stewart is finally healthy for Oregon and I think you have to take the points in Oregon's biggest game of the year....just my opinion.

GL on rest of your plays bro.
Click to expand...

Stewart is solid, but USC is pretty solid against the run...I really see this setting up a situation alot like the Cal game for Oregon...I think Oregon is a good team but still a bit overrated....USC for the first time in four years is going to get some line value at home.....I'll give more matchup writeup later..
 
should be a good game jump...If you want serious line value on USC it will be nov.18th against CAL as a 1 point fav in vegas...if they stop oregon's run I am all over USC against cal the 18th.
 
HUNTDOG said:
undecided on the ville/rutgers, waiting to see what that line does as well...I just think Rutgers is disciplined, much more than WVU..they won't fumble and get dumb penalties and it isn't at papa johns.
Click to expand...

I want to really watch this movement too and monitor Rice's status which can easily affect the line....I know we disagree on Teal but WVU/RU run the ball completely differently and I think the Cards have a defense set up to play RU pretty well...despite Schiano's S Florida ties, this is a team that's sorely lacking speed compared to Lville...

I can see a hangover effect but not for a team that's now the frontrunner to play in the NC if they win out...we know how bad Petrino wants to take his club to the next level and this is their chance..esp if he says he isn't going anywhere and means it...

There are characteristics and trends working against the Cards so I won't play it large for sure though...it'll be a one unit play because I'm aware of the extended rest RU has had for this one, the hangover trend, and bigtime revenge spot as RU was just absolutely emberrased in a loss at the Pizza Palace last year.
 
HUNTDOG said:
should be a good game jump...If you want serious line value on USC it will be nov.18th against CAL as a 1 point fav in vegas...if they stop oregon's run I am all over USC against cal the 18th.
Click to expand...

I will be too Hunt and the game on the 25th as well...

I think that if you'd played SC all three of these at 7 or under the expectation of covering 2 of 3 would be very real and the possibility of covering all 3 is entirely possible...
 
Cincinnati/ West Vagina

Back to the "hangover" effect from the biggest game in Lville and WVU's history, I think the real value this week will be on UC...

We'll hear alot of people talk about how WVU will want to come out and show they belong and garner the national spotlight back and all this...but I think the scenario which happened to Clemson this last weekend is earily similar to what wVU will face this week...

CU was emberrassed alot like WVU was, or at least lost a bigtime national spotlight game, and then come home to a game they should dominate...

like MD, UC is much, much improved from early on and took that same Lville team down to the wire in Papa Johns'

It sits 19.5 right now, which I'd be glad to take, but I'm going to wait cause it's so close to 21 and I think WVU might get bet up.
 
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Ill say USC 35 - Oregn 24..

Their defense is solid. They will stop the run and force the ducks to pass. Oregon is 2 - 2 on the road, with wins over arizona st and fresno st. I really like SC and i think by the end of the year they will be clicking on all cylinders. I was shocked to see them lose at oregon st. But they gave away that game with turnovers. I told jump that stanford game would be a blowout, and the more i watch the offense the more i see it clicking. I dont see Oregon stopping them at all. Look for JDB to throw for big #'s and get his name back in the heisman vote. I do agree thats a lot of value at 7.. i cant remember the last time sc wasnt favored by 14 at least at home.
 
abcs said:
Ill say USC 35 - Oregn 24..

Their defense is solid. They will stop the run and force the ducks to pass. Oregon is 2 - 2 on the road, with wins over arizona st and fresno st. I really like SC and i think by the end of the year they will be clicking on all cylinders. I was shocked to see them lose at oregon st. But they gave away that game with turnovers. I told jump that stanford game would be a blowout, and the more i watch the offense the more i see it clicking. I dont see Oregon stopping them at all. Look for JDB to throw for big #'s and get his name back in the heisman vote. I do agree thats a lot of value at 7.. i cant remember the last time sc wasnt favored by 14 at least at home.
Click to expand...

Agreed bro...30 in a row in the colleseum and u can count on one hand the times they haven't covered this tariff....plus I still feel that Oregon is an overrated club...

Look at the trips to Cal and Wazzou...they have travelled like shit in conference..
 
I have no idea and may have jumped the gun, but I wanted to make sure and grab it in case it falls under the 17...I got fucked on the value and just played one unit for that reason...

I don't think the 2 pts makes a diff, but I'm bummed it didn't get the WVU bump to 21..
 
yeah..I'm shocked...17.5 at that juice is solid..might have to follow suit.
 
Are you kidding me UL only favor by 6? Before the line open, I was thinking they would be favored by atleast 2 TDs.
 
GL on the plays, Jump, think I might be on the other side of Ville and USC though.
 
Been meaning to post my thoughts on L'ville/RU game, so here they are..

I've heard alot about a Lville letdown here and I just don't see it...if this was week 4, maybe...but this game now becomes as big, if not bigger than the WVU game last week...I've talked about since before the Miami game how much that Petrino wants to take this team to the next level...this is his chance...when u have two undefeated teams w/ a chance to win not only a conference title, but a chance to win a NATIONAL title, how in the hell are you going to have a letdown..???

Usually I don't think years past play alot into capping a game in the current season, but in this case I think it may...First, because the three headed monster of RU all played last year vs L'ville, in Rice, Leonard, and Teal...2nd, because Bush DID NOT play in that game either...

Last year, everone knows that L'ville destroyed RU 56-5...alot of the damage came in the 2nd half, but it was an ass raping...so you hear alot of the revenge angle...I don't think it holds nearly as much merit ...first off, RU was a 22.5 half point dog in this game..they were supposed to get their ass kicked...revenge will be when IU goes to Iowa City next year and gets ass raped by Iowa because they got picked off in a spot they weren't supposed too...In that game, Leonard had 42 yds, and Rice had 31...Teel threw for 91 yds and was picked twice...this are some key stats..Brohm threw for 339 yds....

Everyone has been all over the rush defense since the WVU game...but that was a bit of an aberation...first off, WVU can run on anybody...they did it w/ alot of big plays and L'ville faired well on alot of the snaps...RU has a completely different style...they come at you...U of L's rush defense was ranked 7th in the country befoer that WVU game...they are equiped to handle RU up front...WVU is so difficult because of the threat of the QB and the RB...L'villle doesn't have to acct for that here...Teel isn't a running threat and the power I is a much easier thing to stop if you win the point of attack...Lville has more speed that RU...alot more...I know Schiano has been in SFLA trying to recruit that area hard, but his roster isn't there yet in the speed dept...the Bulls showed alot of that in that game last month...

We also have Rice's ankle injury...he's not 100% and that's not a good thing against a defense that's got the speed that Lville's does...they are solid up front..their weakness is in the secondary...if you Believe RU can win this game, in my mind, you have to believe that Teel can do it through the air and pick on that secondary...I, for one, don't see that happening..
 
You also have the been there before angle....Lville has played in big games now...Miami and WVU this year...@ Miami two years back, a game that Brohm played in, and led his team down the field in the fourth quarter w/ subbing w/ Lefors..

You know that teams that step up to the plate for the first team normally don't win...

This is the biggest game RU has ever seen...
 
Oregon @ Southern Cal


This play has some to do w/ USC's propensity for dominating in the Colleseum, but more to do w/ Oregon's road woes this year...

Stopping Oregon seems to be pretty simple...you stop their ground game, and they really struggle...QB Dennis Dixon`s has been very inconsistent and that's not likely to improve vs a SC defense who's improving and getting healthy.... He hasn`t thrown for more than 150 yards in four consecutive games, and had two interceptions vs Washington`that went for scores....

In Oregon's last two road games, they've gotten woodshedded at Cal and at Wazzou..now those are two good football teams, but they were destroyed....the one glaring similarity was the inability to run the football...vs Cal, Oregon had 70 yds rushing and Jonathan Stewart had 18 carries for 25 yds...he didn't play as much vs Wazzou hampered by ankle and rib injuries, but he did carry it 11 times for not much more..and they managaged only 104 yds rushing in that game...they only lost by 11 at Wazzou, but were down 27-3 entering the 4th quarter...

I'm hearing alot about Jonathan Stewart, but he, along w/ the rest of the Duck team, have been garbage on the road...

SC has given up just 80 yd/g on the ground at home this year adn 3.6 yd/c and in Autzen last year, they handed Oregon their own woodshed job in their only defeat of the regular season....45-13...Oregon managed just 65 yds rushing in that game despite jumping out 10-0....

I really think this rushing battle is the key to Oregon w/ Dixon's performance as of late...

__________

As for SC, I think two things are key here....

One, is injuries....S Cal is starting to get healthy now and just in time...JDB productivity is getting better...his completion percentage is still low, but your seeing more big plays from him and I think that's directly related to the health of his receivers...really for the first time this year, Jarrett, Smith and Turner are all healthy at the same time...and Fred Davis emergence, and yeah, nice weapons on the offense....Go look at the injury report for that Duck defense and secondary...It's scary...they've been decimated on that side of the ball and may even have another CB out of this game for academics...That's a major deal and I don't see them stopping SC here...SC had 6 and 7 pt wins at home over ASU and WASH earlier, but Jarrett missed one of those games and Smith got hurt in the other...

then 2nd thing is urgency....this team was complacent early and u could see it...most of the players were paper champions and were living off the past three years success...many, if not most, were 5 star recruits and brought in and were talked up and heralded....The didn't earn their distinctions...after that Oregon St game, now they have to...w/ the schedule coming up, if Lville loses a game and the teams they play, they prolly will be the highest rated one loss team if they make it out...Now they have motivation, urgency, experience for the younger guys...

This team may become scary....they've been on the road virtually all year and now it's So Cal time...Also, SC has had to travel TO Oregon three years straight and weren't overally happy about it...

Here's some quotes from Carroll I found interesting:

"We're pleased that this matchup has turned around - we finally get to play them at our place," Carroll said. "We're pretty healthy now, feeling pretty good. It's time to take a significant step now."

"This is not something we should be uncomfortable with," Carroll said of the matchup with Oregon. "We're getting better, stronger right now. We got some turnovers last week, some sacks the last couple of weeks. That makes us feel better about what's going on. We feel well-equipped, ready to go."


No groundbreaking quotes there, but they're interesting nonetheless...

I think the value I got at -7 here is very juicy...
 
good stuff jump..I knew I bet Oregon too early, I kind of want to hedge out the more I think about it...but I don't want to think about it and just let it ride lol.

I will be on the other side of the ville...I agree ville won't have a letdown and it is for all the marbles here. I just think that Rutgers has had a TON of time to prepare for this game and they are a great dog. I have to think Rice will go all out whether he is 80 or 100 percent in the biggest game of the year.

Teel does suck, but I think he manages the game well enough for a cover. VIlle can be had, they squeaked by Cincy and didn't look very good against Syracuse..although I am not sure if Cantwell played those two games.

Rutgers is a disciplined and well-coached team who runs clock and does not turn it over at home too often, with a pretty solid pass D. I think those are the keys to the cover...

just my two cents.

GL bro.
 
HUNTDOG said:
good stuff jump..I knew I bet Oregon too early, I kind of want to hedge out the more I think about it...but I don't want to think about it and just let it ride lol.

I will be on the other side of the ville...I agree ville won't have a letdown and it is for all the marbles here. I just think that Rutgers has had a TON of time to prepare for this game and they are a great dog. I have to think Rice will go all out whether he is 80 or 100 percent in the biggest game of the year.

Teel does suck, but I think he manages the game well enough for a cover. VIlle can be had, they squeaked by Cincy and didn't look very good against Syracuse..although I am not sure if Cantwell played those two games.

Rutgers is a disciplined and well-coached team who runs clock and does not turn it over at home too often, with a pretty solid pass D. I think those are the keys to the cover...

just my two cents.

GL bro.
Click to expand...

I agree w/ the time preparation here bro...and that's fine w/ from a coaching standpoint...

Not so sure from a player's standpoint...I have a feeling they woulda just assumed played this game last week and not taken two weeks off...this is their first rodeo doing this stuff and hell, that place doesn't even draw good...when was the last sellout they had??

No they have all these people and all these expectations...whereas it's business as usual for Lville...it's not a short week for them, it's normal prep time...it's just not an extra week like RU...

I can see the situational angle for RU for sure...on the surface, it would always be a nice spot to fade Lville off that big win...but this time of the year, those situations chance a bit from the beginning of the year, IMO..

Good health on this one bro....
 
Michigan @ Indiana (+19)


Most of my thoughts are littered throughout this thread on this game,

http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6633

But I'll paste and summarize in my main thread here as well...

First we have the coach revenge angle...apparenty Mr Hoeppner got angry about a warmup situation last year and circled this game since that moment...lmfao...it's pretty laughable, but interesting in the sense for three reasons:
1) They catch 19 at home
2) They are better than expected and UM has been in letdown mode/holding pattern for over two weeks now...
3) They need a win for bowl eligibility here or Purdue (more likely)

Here's the quote from last year's press:

Indiana Coach Terry Hoeppner

After Indiana’s embarrasing loss to Michigan this past weekend, Coach Hoeppner was upset that Michigan didn’t allow the Hoosiers to use the entire half of the field for their warms ups, here are some quotes from Coach Hoeppner after the game. Please try to keep from laughing. This is serious.

?The next time we play these guys, I can?t wait,? Hoeppner said after the game. ?After what happened in the pre-game warm-up and right through the end of this game, I can?t wait to play them the next time.?
When pressed to elaborate, Hoeppner declined.

?I?m gonna take it up with the (Big Ten) office,? he said. ?I?m not gonna talk about it right now. But I?m gonna take it up with the league office, I guaran-ass-tee you that. And the next time we play these guys, I can?t wait! I?m already getting ready for it. I?m gonna count the days down to this date till we play them again.?


per: http://www.hicksfamilyonline.com/blog/?p=72
Click to expand...


Also, we have UM injuries and Carr wanting these guys to rest...Yes, UM played poorly vs Ball, but they also sat alot of guys in the second and third quarters..

From my other thread:

As far as supporting an IU play, I gotta think Carr and Co go back to resting some of the starters if they get out early, ala Ball St...this team is pretty damn beat up...Grady, Manningham, Ecker, Massey, Riley, Burgess, and Hart are all knicked up to varying degrees...

Ecker has been out but I know they'd like to get him a few reps for the tOSU game...

Manningham is just trying to get the bugs out but they don't want to overdo w/ him..


Grady has shoulder problem at least and his condition seems somewhat up in the air...I've seen questionable to done for the year in different spots...

Hart has that lingering ankle and back...I'm sure they want to get him rest, but w/ Grady this is an issue...I don't think Minor is that good as the runs vs Ball I coulda done...he's been bad vs good competition..Jackson looked good but not sure they trust the frosh that much..

Burgess limped off w/ an ankle and came back in street clothes....this one I know has UM fans concerned so u might not see much of him this week..

With the fact that the IU offense clicked once the move to Kellen Lewis as QB was permanent and Coach Hoeppner came back from brain surgery....4 of the past 5 weeks, Indiana has gone over 420 yards of total offense, avg'ing 28 PPG and 415 total yards since then..(Note: the one game they didn't was tOSU and they weren't even close, though they did move it in stretches and Lewis was impressive in stretches..

Now we've seen UM schemes have trouble w/ running QB's before, sans English..so I'm discounting that until I see it..

w/ IU's output vs Iowa and MSU at home last two home games scoring 31 vs Iowa and 46 vs MSU, u would think they may have a shot at some pts here...

IU is a passing team and w/ UM giving up 30 yds/pg on the ground, no way they run it...

I guess for an IU cover, one needs to think IU can score 17 pts here...
 
I'm looking at Bammer at +18 here as they are great in that dog role and the visitor has owned this series ATS...

Any SEC guys tell me if team has a game in em or are they done after that home loss..

Shula's teams have been resiliant in the past and are still 6-4 overall...
 
Also looking at Illy -3, tOSU -23, UAB -2 if anybody has thoughts on those...

Most likely will lay another unit on UC as well..
 
great thread, jump.:cheers:

as u may have figured out by now, i don't get into this stuff till late in the week. i soak it all up and let it simmer and make most of my decisions on friday.
i am on L'ville, however, and i like one eleven you mentioned-- Illinois.
If they are not on a downer from a week ago, I see a team improving and playing hard for coach against a team that is maybe going 7-6 and get their asses hande to them in a bowl game. Really, Purdue has shown us nothing this year. Illini have some fight, and I like that.
GL
 
Jump, we tried to talk some sense into the forum about taking Louisville, but they're all being bullheaded. Let's cash this baby!!!
glasses10.gif
 
Great call for RU backers last night...

We had talked about the glaring defiecency of Cards before the Miami game was the OL in pass protection...well it finally bit them in the ass...

RU had a great game plan and basically brought 7 on every play...not only that, they won every one on one battle up front, esp on D..it was one man pressuring Brohm, but 3 or 4...that kills Lville, w/ the vertical O...surprised Petrino didn't go to a quick passing game though..never did make the adjustment..

Stilll working on this card, and now have a week 11 hole to dig out of....

Congrats guys...

That was quite a scene afterward and what college football is all about...
 
adding:

UCF -1.5....1 unit....1.05/1.00....Ramble turned me onto this one and it looks pretty solid...worth a small bite.
 
GL, JOB.
Yeah, can't tell you how badly i wanted Oregon...jsut couldn't do it. Trojans live the dream for one more week...then it'll all come crashing down. This week though will be a happy home-coming.
 
couple more adds:

Tenny +5.5 (-105)....1 unit...1.05/1.00

Iowa ML +108...1 unit...1.00/1.08

Kansas ST/Texas UNDER 49.5 (-105)...1 unit...1.05/1.00

Cal/Zona UNDER 45.5 (-105)....1 unit...1.05/1.00

Temple/Penn St UNDER 46 (-102)....2 units...2.04/2.00
 
adding:

tOSU -22.5 (-102)...2 units....2.04/2.00

lots of good stuff in paper today...no Tresselball acc to JT and team talking about 04 game as well...TRUCK..
 
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