Week 11 ML Dogs

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
As we reach the home stretch of the season...... Dogs should still be barking.

Trying to make a Bowl game, win that Rivalry game and pull the upset......

Again MANY Thanks to EVERYONE that makes this a great thread! You can always find a winner sprinkled in here and there

What do we like this week?

Go......
 
At the moment it looks like I would be considering:

Kansas
Vanderbilt
Tulsa
South Carolina
Old Dominion
UCLA
Marshall
Bowling Green
New Mexico
East Carolina
South Florida
Colorado State
 
What about Illinois? Should be +600ish.

They just dropped 55 on Minnesota and now they travel to Lincoln. Nebraska has a pretty bad defense, I could seem them losing this game SU.
 
I will only discuss dogs of 6 points or greater

Kansas - Wait .. they just fired their coach, they never beat Kansas State, they have lost five of their last six with the win being a 1 point victory. But if you look it over, Kansas is averaging 4.96 yards per play on offense and Kansas State is averaging 5.16 yards per play on offense. Kansas State is allowing an average of 6.06 yards per play and Kansas 6.12 yards per play defensively. Kansas State (per Sagarin) has played the 14th toughest schedule and Kansas the 49th toughest schedule. It doesn't appear either team is very likely to make a bowl but this game is bigger to kansas than KSU, it is a game they probably think they can win and they have beatdowns to Texas and OU on the horizon to conclude the year. While the coach is fired, he is still coaching the kids so limited distraction. Maximum effort and there doesn't appear to be a ton separating these teams. This one looks good to me.

Wisconsin - Not much separating these teams statistically either. PSU offense has been not bueno for three of the last four weeks and the Wisconsin defense, while down two notches from last year, isn't exactly relief. Hornibrook is doubtful with concussion as of this writing but how big can that drop off actually be. Wisconsin is gonna run the ball and run it some more whether they are succeeding or not. Just looks like another fourth quarter slugfest to me and you have an 8 pt dog who likes to win football games. Can also count on Franklin for a dummy move late too.

Vanderbilt - Situationally this appears nice. Vanderbilt off a bye and needing two of the last three for bowl eligibility while Missouri is bowl eligible and off a whipping of Florida. Missouri slightly better but the teams are fairly even in yards per play offense and defense, with both teams having played tough competition so far. Obvious concern of Lock vs the Dores pass defense but it won't be perfect for a dog of this size.

TCU - This would be classic Patterson. Defense could keep them in the game and then anything is possible. WV off a big emotional win and has been featured on espn a lot.

Charlotte - Vols couldn't get a first down, why will Marshall?

more later ...
 
I'd normally give Patterson a fighting chance but that team looks cooked - offense is putrid, the defense is banged up and to top it off they have no FG kicker.

Holgorsen is schizo, so there's that. And, yes, a tough bounce back after a big win in Austin but WVU is still going to have to really wet the bed on Saturday as TCU just doesn't have many tools right now, even with Patterson.
 
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Good posts all, I will play 80% spread, 20% ML on these
Illinois +17.5, Old Dominion + 14.5, Charlotte
Also liking Liberty +24, Wisconsin
 
Does anyone think Kent St. can pull the upset? With the poor weather + the series going back & forth, the impossible becomes possible.
 
It's actually a quite interesting thought spooks. It isn't for me but it is hard to find the meaning in this game for Buffalo other than senior night (wanting a 10 win season maybe - reaccccch). I mean they are a game ahead of Ohio and two games ahead of Miami Ohio with a win over them, in the MAC East standings. A loss here doesn't really change much for them ... beat Ohio and win the division, lose to Ohio and lose the division.

Not for me but between the meaningless of the game to them and the weather ... I dunno .. might be onto something.
 
BC--It's not wise to go against the Clemson steamroller, but they have laid eggs on the road in night games in the east before.

Texas Tech--only if Bowman plays. That was a hard loss for Texas.

Michigan State--something is wrong with Ohio State and I'd like to see MSU start Lombardi or at least give him some snaps.

Oregon--Utah lost their QB and they looked like their tank is empty. Problem is Utah still rules the kicking game.
 
Each year, Las Vegas posts prop bets for college football teams’ over/under win totals. Most will take quite a while to decide, as Vegas is quite good and wagers often come down to the final games of the season.

But so far this year, one team has already surpassed their number, plus a number of others are knocking on the door. Checking results against the Vegas expectation is a good lens of perspective through which to view the season’s results to date.

Winners
Congrats to Arizona State, Boston College, UAB, and Utah State for hitting their overs this week.

Previously: Hawaii, Cincinnati, Colorado, Kentucky, Buffalo, Georgia Southern, Charlotte, Coastal Carolina, FIU, Syracuse, Virginia, and Washington State.

Next in the win column?
  • Oregon State could beat its minuscule line of 2.5 if it can upset Stanford.
  • If Louisiana Lafayette can beat Georgia State.
  • If Kansas can beat Kansas State, it’ll hit its over! Kansas!
  • Maryland will get to its over if it beats Indiana this weekend.
  • Army will go over if it can take down Lafayette (not ULL).
  • Fresno State will get to its over if it beats Boise State.
  • Pitt will get to its over if it can take down Virginia Tech.
Losers

his weekend was the nail in the coffin for a lot of programs. Florida State, Kansas State, Navy, Old Dominion, Penn State, Rice, Stanford, Western Kentucky, UCLA, and UNLV all officially will fail to meet their Vegas expectations thanks to yet another loss.

Previously: Nebraska, FAU, Memphis, Wyoming, Louisville, Miami (FL), New Mexico State, USC, Washington, and Wisconsin .


Below are the numbers for all 130 teams
Odds are from 5Dimes Casino as of late August. This chart will be updated weekly. I have added a trend in instances where there is an obvious result coming.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...llege-football-win-totals-wagers-2018-cfb-bet
 
spooks said:
What a stupid fucking post....lol
Click to expand...

Sure you beat yourself up a little, after that, don't even worry about it. Any time we are trying to pick 3 score underdogs to win we are going to get alot wrong before we get one right. With the payout of 5:1, 6:1...11:1...when you get it right, you can afford several misses for every hit. If you're not willing to take the chance on the occasional ugly loss, then you'll never get the joy of the great upset win. It's just about trying to find the best chances to take, the right situation, the vulnerable favorite and the dogs that do some things well. We all make bad calls, hell I do it all the time. But when you get it right it feels so good. Just got to figure out where the best potential lies. If trying to find these MLs is something you like, don't be afraid to lose on the next Kent at Buffalo becasue if you do you might miss the next SMU over Houston, or Oregon State over Colorado, Tennessee over Auburn, or BYU over Wisconsin, or whatever it is. Just takes a tough stomach, a few somewhat realistic angles and a little bit of an active imagination.
 
How is vandy passing attack? Knowing mizzou and this coach the way I feel I do I think they so so ripe to get beat this week. Problem is vandy one the few sec defenses lock can carve up and tigers have ran all over vandy last few meetings making his life so easy. Then I see gators terrible qb torched vandy and I think I’m scared to back them! 3rd down gonna be another big problem as tigers gonna be able to run so should be in much more favorable distances than I feel vandy will be. It really all comes down to is vandy willing/capable of coming in and airing it out much like Purdue did to tigers?? The more I look the more I think if you like the dog you might as well play the over cause I feel like tigers could very well put up 40 here, this vandy 3rd straight road game as well? That might be a tougher challenge than tigers battling the letdown of what those losers calling a “signature” win (this regime, lmfao).
 
spooks said:
What a stupid fucking post....lol:beerdrink:
Click to expand...

Don’t beat yourself up pal. We have all been wrong by at least that much if not more!! Hell the way I see it I rather take a loss where I feel like a complete ass than a game I feel I capped properly but caught few bad breaks to lose one I probably should have won! Easy to write one off like this and get on w life! Funniest thing is you know it will happen again!! Lol..
 
I guess Texas Tech is off the list. Bowman was just released from the hospital today. I never heard of a guy getting out of the hospital Wednesday after spending four days and then playing Saturday.

But anything is possible at Texas Tech.
 
I gotta chew on Mizzou. Obvious let down spot and Vandy off the bye, the early start time doesn't help for scoring imo. I'd want MU team total except for all that jazz.
 
Was going through seeing if there were any attractive home dogs this week, it is a rough week for home dog appeal. Here are a couple that have some somewhat good history past 2 years.

Coastal Carolina is 3-3 straight up as home dog. Win vs UAB +256 this year, lost to App St. 2016 wins vs UMass +140, Georgia Southern +140, lost Georgia St and Troy.

Georgia Southern is 3-3 straight up as home dog. Won vs Ark St +130 and App St +330 this year. 2016 won vs South Alabama +203, lost to Ark St, NMSt, Georgia St.

On the ATS front:

Boston College is 4-1, won outright vs Miami this year, 2016 covered vs VT, NCSt, won outright vs FSU - failed to cover vs ND.
Rutgers is 5-4 as home dog last two years. Texas Tech is 3-2. Arkansas is 4-3.
 
I'm probably going to be dumpster diving on New Mexico this week. Despite the rotating BS QB situation Davie did last week vs SDSU. They have won 3 in a row in the series.

I usually don't like to say a service academy is in a bad spot, but this doesn't seem to be the greatest spot for them coming on the Army game.

NM coming of a brutal 3 game stretch, where frankly I thought they quit at Utah St. They at least showed some fight vs SDSU, held a 4th quarter lead, despite being significantly out gained.
 
My trend went 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS last week to bring the records to 22-20 SU & 31-11 ATS since the beginning of 2017. It not been as hot as last year. The trend, once again, is road dogs of lines less than 10pts, worse total defense, and both fav & dog have negative turnover margin. This week we have three hits. It is active on Bowling Green, Gardner-Webb, and South Carolina State this Saturday. BOL in what you decide Gents!

parlay1week11.jpg
parlay2week11.jpg
 
I've been quiet this week because I have had a difficult time 1) narrowing down this list, 2) making a strong case for most of these teams. I have 33 games today I am still trying to figure out how to lay it out, I think that is the most this year. I should probably just flat bet them all I don't know. Anyway....

Kansas 50 to win 139
UCLA 50 to win 165

If 3 out of 14 of the smallest payouts win I would break even, so seems like a decent risk vs reward since I can't make up mind on being selective. I feel like JRock!! What's up brother?

Vanderbilt 10 to win 56
Tulsa 10 to win 62
Old Dominion 10 to win 45
Charlotte 10 to win 41
Baylor 10 to win 59
Oklahoma St 10 to win 106
ECU 10 to win 35
USF 10 to win 46
Auburn 10 to win 41
Arkansas 10 to win 38
FSU 10 to win 53
Southern Miss 10 to win 38
Boston College 10 to win 100
Colorado St 10 to win 45
 
Monmouth +1500......took the +25 and threw some at the ML. Going to be a raw day with sustained 20-30 and gusts to 40mph but no precip. This is for a conf title and both have very similar rushing offense and rushing defensive stats. Monmouth has the better passing offense but that's negated by the owls passing defense. Just hoping the Georgia boys are freezing and find themselves in a dogfight. It should be mentioned that Kennesaw has only given up 11 TDs on the year so I know what I'm up against. GLTA
 
s--k said:
I've been quiet this week because I have had a difficult time 1) narrowing down this list, 2) making a strong case for most of these teams. I have 33 games today I am still trying to figure out how to lay it out, I think that is the most this year. I should probably just flat bet them all I don't know. Anyway....

Kansas 50 to win 139
UCLA 50 to win 165

If 3 out of 14 of the smallest payouts win I would break even, so seems like a decent risk vs reward since I can't make up mind on being selective. I feel like JRock!! What's up brother?

Vanderbilt 10 to win 56
Tulsa 10 to win 62
Old Dominion 10 to win 45
Charlotte 10 to win 41
Baylor 10 to win 59
Oklahoma St 10 to win 106
ECU 10 to win 35
USF 10 to win 46
Auburn 10 to win 41
Arkansas 10 to win 38
FSU 10 to win 53
Southern Miss 10 to win 38
Boston College 10 to win 100
Colorado St 10 to win 45
Click to expand...
I've actually been spending most of my time this week on NBA.....just starting do look for today. I know I had pegged Kansas earlier in the week for it's in-state rivalry value so glad to see you on them....then there's my post 33 but I know absolutely nothing about those FCS teams.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Its going to be brutal. Huge game. I actually wish I was there. Stadium will be packed. Id have to be seriously buzzed tho. Has makings of epic game for Jayhawk.
Click to expand...

I am glad that KU is on the road for it. It would be demoralizing to have so many KSt fans in their stadium for this game given the week they've had. The players said they were disappointed with the ISU fan turnout vs home fans last week. This is better for them, get away in their own bubble, do down in the submarine as Harbaugh likes to say and hopefully take care of business. Alot of vets on this KU team, this is the last chance for them to do something really special.
 
This is rushed...lack of planning on my part as I did not bother to look and see that almost every damn game began at either noon or 1pm today. Lots of games going off that I'll not get a chance to run my queries on.....anyway. I did run some queries on Illini and Braska and it look murky at best for the home team. I feel the 1st half has a better shot as anticipating hopefully a sluggish start after the road game last week in Columbus. Kansas added per conversations above...then there's my post 33...might as well go for it. BOL Gents!!

3, 4, & 5-teamer RRs:

parlay3week11.jpg
 
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