Odds
Week 11 Discussion Thread
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Frank Costanza
You are what your record says you are
Fox Big Noon in Lubbock for CU / Tech. Should be an entertaining game. Tech is your definition of a schizo team this year.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
I have five plays I love this week. I haven't felt this good since week 1.
This week features my two best angles, the Iowa State under angle and my "fade Clemson" angle, both of which have been unbelievably successful since I discovered them. To be clear, the angles say to play the KU/ISU under and Virginia Tech.
It's been an up and down year since week one for me, but one thing that's worked well all year is noting coaches' records after an open date. I have two of those plays these this week, fading Maryland and playing ON Notre Dame. Finally, this is not the week to jump off the IU bandwagon, in my opinion.
Iowa St 24 Kansas 18
Virginia Tech 30 Clemson 27
Oregon 49 Maryland 7
Notre Dame 38 Florida State 6
Indiana 41 Michigan 14
What do the Michigan guys think about the IU game? Any thoughts on the other games?
This week features my two best angles, the Iowa State under angle and my "fade Clemson" angle, both of which have been unbelievably successful since I discovered them. To be clear, the angles say to play the KU/ISU under and Virginia Tech.
It's been an up and down year since week one for me, but one thing that's worked well all year is noting coaches' records after an open date. I have two of those plays these this week, fading Maryland and playing ON Notre Dame. Finally, this is not the week to jump off the IU bandwagon, in my opinion.
Iowa St 24 Kansas 18
Virginia Tech 30 Clemson 27
Oregon 49 Maryland 7
Notre Dame 38 Florida State 6
Indiana 41 Michigan 14
What do the Michigan guys think about the IU game? Any thoughts on the other games?
Frank Costanza
You are what your record says you are
Laid the 13.5 with IU at home. Michigan is mediocre. IU is really, really good. One chance in a lifetime that you'll see this dynamic.
That's not lost on Cignetti. He'll be gone soon and this is a chance to lay another footprint on this season. A meh game for Michigan. A Super Bowl for IU in Bloomington.
34-13.
That's not lost on Cignetti. He'll be gone soon and this is a chance to lay another footprint on this season. A meh game for Michigan. A Super Bowl for IU in Bloomington.
34-13.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
I feel like I saw this movie before, in 1995. Nine straight wins and covers for Northwestern to end the regular season.
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FadeTheHype
Pretty much a regular
IU to cover again. Think IU is out for blood this season
Ah yes, the 1995 NW season.
That was something else.
I always enjoy your historical perspective.
I just looked back at their schedule. I forgot they lost to Miami of Ohio in week #2 after edging ND in week #1.
I'll have thoughts when I start the B10 thread tomorrow night.
The injury situation is big on defense right now. They have zero chance with both starting corners out again.
This is IU biggest home game in sometime, I don't care what the UM record is right now. This is a school that they have rarely beat. Big one, and much more important.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Classic letdown spot.
1995 was the first year I bet on football. First bet was GT over Duke. The rest of the way it was all Clemson and NW, both of which finished with five straight wins and covers after that Tech game. I went 8-0. Beginner's luck!
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M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Franklin is 1-12 ATS off his first loss of the season at Vandy and Penn State. Washington has been dreadful on the road this year, but two of the three games (Iowa, Indiana) kicked at 9 am PDT and the other (Rutgers) was a Friday game. This one will be at night, on Saturday, and should feel more normal for a West Coast team. However, Wash is off a win over USC and have UCLA at home next week. I really want to play UW, but I'm concerned about the spot for them. Anyone have thoughts on this?
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
To expand without writing an essay, the situation is perfect. This whole undefeated thing is now a memory so we can get back to playing football and ISU is better than KU at virtually every position on offense. The defensive front 6 isn't great as it's been in the past but that should matter zero in this one. Back 4 are an elite squad so it masks the lack of pressure on the QB.
Now we get a road game at Arrowhead where I pretty much expect at least a 60% ISU crowd if not much more. It will be a road game for KU. Should be a methodical victory for ISU and getting this position off the loss just seals the deal.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Also, the National Champions beat IU 52-7 last year.
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Frank Costanza
You are what your record says you are
Played BYU -3.5. We get a fun game After Dark with the Holy War in Salt Lake City. It's always great to see hate play out on a college football field.
I've seen enough of BYU and enough of Utah. BYU 24 -13.
I've seen enough of BYU and enough of Utah. BYU 24 -13.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Gonna play my 1st maction props, a lot based off just reading @Marsski , some based off me flipping a coin!!
Central Michigan qb
Tyler Jefferson under 42.5 rush yards. Sacks baby, dude gonna take sacks, that makes this shit tough to hit! Mars thinks BG will load up to stop the run, it a big spread so at some point they have to be throwing. BG has a solid pressure rate and this kid takes sacks. This shit has went up 7 yards today, sharp money or degens betting an over on a game they don’t know shit bout? I’ll bet the latter and hope this mfer loses bout 50 yards in sacks!
MIA Ohio rb
Mozee ov 92.5 rush., he been smashing this in Mac play, the problem is he doesn’t get a lot of volume he a home run hitter. He facing a team that allows 6 ypc, you don’t do that without giving up some long ones!! Spread says these guys should be up late so maybe few extra runs to salt the game away but mostly we looking for a 50+ yarder then another 10 or so carries to push us over 100..
I don’t know Mac real well so don’t take me to serious here. Small plays!
Central Michigan qb
Tyler Jefferson under 42.5 rush yards. Sacks baby, dude gonna take sacks, that makes this shit tough to hit! Mars thinks BG will load up to stop the run, it a big spread so at some point they have to be throwing. BG has a solid pressure rate and this kid takes sacks. This shit has went up 7 yards today, sharp money or degens betting an over on a game they don’t know shit bout? I’ll bet the latter and hope this mfer loses bout 50 yards in sacks!
MIA Ohio rb
Mozee ov 92.5 rush., he been smashing this in Mac play, the problem is he doesn’t get a lot of volume he a home run hitter. He facing a team that allows 6 ypc, you don’t do that without giving up some long ones!! Spread says these guys should be up late so maybe few extra runs to salt the game away but mostly we looking for a 50+ yarder then another 10 or so carries to push us over 100..
I don’t know Mac real well so don’t take me to serious here. Small plays!
Frank Costanza
You are what your record says you are
Bumping this play. BYU got snubbed in the committee rankings. Guessing it will be an angry team Saturday night.
Uncle Thirsty
Pretty much a regular
I don’t think TT wins this game. How are they going to stop CU? Seeing a 45-31 type game with Deion winning unfortunately. Over may be worth a look.
Frank Costanza
You are what your record says you are
Yeah, clean and fast track Saturday in Lubbock. I am already on the over. It would be just like Tech to win big at Iowa State and then not show up Saturday.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Where they get put? BYU like a way better version of utes so I was gonna slam them anyways, little disrespect makes it even better! Why wouldn’t committee diss them? Oddmakers been doing it all year. End of day won’t matter cause they winning big12 or at very least losing in chsmp game, be crazy they got left out cause that considering all the bs 2-3 loss sec and big10 teams gonna be in.
CPA-hole
Narduzzi Gives Me Second-Hand Embarrassment
37 teams were on a bye last week I believe?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Im very scared this is 80% of what we gonna get from our youth. Borderline retards more worried bout getting another tat to post on the interweb than actually learning how to play their position! Think there more incentive for them to jack up their interweb Q rating or whatever they call the
in the short term than learning how to play their position! How did the interweb become a place that creates Logan Pauls or the other million idiot “influencers” I’ve never heard of?? If you a no talent loser I suppose I get it even if I don’t understand it, if you in line to be a 1st round draft pick why??
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Wind not an issue?
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
was trying to do that with wake tonight
lots of points out of the bye
only thing is they were mostly faves
one little +12 point game in the sample though
Frank Costanza
You are what your record says you are
Good point. 10 - 15 MPH looks like. Never not windy there so not terrible.
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
Iowa doesn't play many road games. Tonight just their 8th true road game in 2 years. And only scored more than 20 pts in one of those last seven. am i on some fools gold here or the road splits real
edit nvm looks like they got some new **** goin on in iowa on offense lately
edit nvm looks like they got some new **** goin on in iowa on offense lately
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M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
I learned this week that Lubbock is the third-windiest city in the country. It never seemed to bother Kingsbury, Cumbie, Harrell, et al.
Frank Costanza
You are what your record says you are
Frank Costanza
You are what your record says you are
Daily playing today for Army. That's big.
www.espn.com
Daily runs for 2 TDs in return as Army stays hot
Army quarterback Bryson Daily didn't miss a beat after sitting out the team's win over Air Force last week because of an undisclosed injury, running for 153 yards and two touchdowns in the No. 25 Black Knights' 14-3 win over North Texas.
Canes1
Pretty much a regular
It’s certainly good, but also sounds like he’s on a pitch count due to lack of practice. So he’s playing, but uncertain to how much or how little.Daily playing today for Army. That's big.
Daily runs for 2 TDs in return as Army stays hot
Army quarterback Bryson Daily didn't miss a beat after sitting out the team's win over Air Force last week because of an undisclosed injury, running for 153 yards and two touchdowns in the No. 25 Black Knights' 14-3 win over North Texas.
CPA-hole
Narduzzi Gives Me Second-Hand Embarrassment
And with a QB so dependent on his legs, seems hard to believe he'll look like the same guy.
Frank Costanza
You are what your record says you are
Adding Virginia. Mostly just a fade of Pitt which I've no problem in doing.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Over?Daily playing today for Army. That's big.
Daily runs for 2 TDs in return as Army stays hot
Army quarterback Bryson Daily didn't miss a beat after sitting out the team's win over Air Force last week because of an undisclosed injury, running for 153 yards and two touchdowns in the No. 25 Black Knights' 14-3 win over North Texas.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Daily playing today for Army. That's big.
Daily runs for 2 TDs in return as Army stays hot
Army quarterback Bryson Daily didn't miss a beat after sitting out the team's win over Air Force last week because of an undisclosed injury, running for 153 yards and two touchdowns in the No. 25 Black Knights' 14-3 win over North Texas.
Sure jumped that line bsck up. I dunno wtf I wanna do now, I was leaning unt then line got bet down so far I wasn’t so excited, now I can get +6 and I’m tempted. I don’t think army can stop unt offense but that certainly goes both ways. Army has played such an easy schedule I think I could argue mean green would be undefeated against that schedule as well. Taking the points only way I could go cause It just feels like a game whoever has the ball last probably wins. Jeez this a crazy high total for a
The thing with service games is they get running and control that clock.
That's always the scare.
That Army game last week was at halftime by like 1:20 eastern.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
It gonna take 40 damn points to win that army/unt game! Is 66 total high enough? It scary playing an army total that high cause one clock killing drive where they don’t get points and it fucked. Could easily play army qb passing total also, right around 100, good chance he hits 2 plays for 50+!!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
No doubt, think unt defense might be bad enough their drives don’t take so long! Lol
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Am I crazy to feel the same way bout Uga as I did osu last week? Kirby just doesn’t lose to anyone outside bama, just like Day doesn’t lose to anyone but Harbaugh. Kiffen and James Franklin both have a habit of making ppl believe then shitting the bed when they get a shot at the big boys. I’ve been fooled before, I’ve heard Uga one the most bet sides this week but line has dropped like a rock so there clearly money buying into Rebs and I just can’t do it. It doesn’t matter to me Uga hasn’t run the ball, it doesn’t matter how Rebs offense looks when playing a meatball like arky, when this game happens all a sudden Uga finds a run game and their defense dominates. If they can take Texas offense apart I’m pretty confident they can do the same to a worse qb who’s weapons i don’t think as good! When the last time Kirby lost to anyone but Bama? How do ya bet on lane kiffen squad against that?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I saw it down to 8.5 like half hour ago. Assuming maybe king playing? I’m not messing with the early games to many questions for me. Spent the last 30 min bothering the wife asking her how can I not bet Uga! Like she gives a shit! lol. I’m like just tell me what I’m saying makes sense and I’m right! lol.
Then I look to tonight and how the hell I pass on byu? I don’t really disagree with everyone waiting for them to slip but I keep making money playing on them and once again they have a short ass number against another team I don’t think is very good!! I mean put them up against isu and maybe I’ll listen but I just can’t see them blowing this season on stinking utes!!
Not exactly a place a feel comfy loving 2 short road favs!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Rather than play Kansas and be nervous they find a way to blow it all game I’m starting to think that over makes way more sense. 52? On paper isu pass d looks great but damn, look at who they have played! Not exactly a bunch of high level passing attacks! Daniels been disappointing most the year but recently he has looked better imo, ku has the WRs to make plays and you have to respect their run game. Neal and Daniels gonna be a problem on the ground, Rocco gonna have a big game throwing. Feels like 31-27 kinda game to me.
