Week 11 Discussion Thread

[VirginiaCavs]

Nov 7 Tue 2023

06:00 PM
103	Ball State	+10 -105		O 44 -110
104	Northern Illinois+1 Markets	-10 -115		U 44 -110

06:00 PM
105	Central Michigan	+3½ -115		O 56½ -110
106	Western Michigan+1 Markets	-3½ -105		U 56½ -110

06:30 PM
101	Ohio	-7 -106		O 44 -110
102	Buffalo+1 Markets	+7 -114		U 44 -110

Nov 8 Wed 2023

06:00 PM
109	Bowling Green	-7½ -110		O 41½ -105
110	Kent State+1 Markets	+7½ -110		U 41½ -115

06:00 PM
111	Akron	+16½ -105		O 44 -110
112	Miami Ohio+1 Markets	-16½ -115		U 44 -110

06:30 PM
107	Eastern Michigan	+19 -115		O 46 -110
108	Toledo+1 Markets	-19 -105		U 46 -110

Nov 9 Thu 2023

06:30 PM
115	Virginia	+20 -110		O 50½ -110
116	Louisville+1 Markets	-20 -110		U 50½ -110

06:30 PM
117	Southern Miss	+12½ -110		O 53½ -110
118	UL Lafayette+1 Markets	-12½ -110		U 53½ -110

Nov 10 Fri 2023

08:00 PM
119	North Texas	+16½ -105		O 68½ -110
120	SMU+1 Markets	-16½ -110		U 68½ -110

09:45 PM
121	Wyoming	+5 -115		O 52 -110
122	UNLV+1 Markets	-5 -105		U 52 -110

Nov 11 Sat 2023

11:00 AM
125	Alabama	-11 -105		O 49 -110
126	Kentucky+1 Markets	+11 -115		U 49 -110

11:00 AM
129	Vanderbilt	+14 -115		O 58½ -110
130	South Carolina+1 Markets	-14 -105		U 58½ -110

11:00 AM
133	Virginia Tech	+2½ -105		O 49½ -110
134	Boston College+1 Markets	-2½ -115		U 49½ -110

11:00 AM
137	Georgia Tech	+14½ -110		O 55½ -110
138	Clemson+1 Markets	-14½ -110		U 55½ -110

11:00 AM
149	Michigan	-5 -115		O 44 -110
150	Penn State+1 Markets	+5 -105		U 44 -110

11:00 AM
151	Temple	+7½ -110		O 67 -110
152	South Florida+1 Markets	-7½ -110		U 67 -110

11:00 AM
159	Texas Tech	+3½ -105		O 61 -110
160	Kansas+1 Markets	-3½ -115		U 61 -110

11:00 AM
191	Indiana	+6 -105		O 44 -110
192	Illinois+1 Markets	-6 -115		U 44 -110

11:00 AM
209	Tulsa	+23 -110		O 53½ -110
210	Tulane	-23 -110		U 53½ -110

11:00 AM
217	Maryland	-2 -110		O 45 -110
218	Nebraska	+2 -110		U 45 -110

12:00 PM
165	Old Dominion	+13 -110		O 59½ -110
166	Liberty+1 Markets	-13 -110		U 59½ -110

01:00 PM
135	NC State	-2½ -110		O 44½ -110
136	Wake Forest+1 Markets	+2½ -110		U 44½ -110

01:00 PM
139	Connecticut	+26½ -110		O 49 -110
140	James Madison+1 Markets	-26½ -110		U 49 -110

01:00 PM
147	Memphis	-12 -110		O 52½ -110
148	Charlotte+1 Markets	+12 -110		U 52½ -110

01:00 PM
155	Appalachian State	+3 -120		O 60 -110
156	Georgia State+1 Markets	-3 +100		U 60 -110

01:00 PM
169	Arizona	-10 -110		O 55½ -110
170	Colorado+1 Markets	+10 -110		U 55½ -110

01:00 PM
193	Troy	-21 -110		O 45½ -110
194	UL Monroe	+21 -110		U 45½ -110

02:00 PM
173	Nevada	+16½ -115		O 56 -110
174	Utah State+1 Markets	-16½ -105		U 56 -110

02:00 PM
183	Sam Houston St	+7½ -110		O 49½ -110
184	Louisiana Tech+1 Markets	-7½ -110		U 49½ -110

02:00 PM
187	Baylor	+20½ -110		O 55½ -110
188	Kansas State+1 Markets	-20½ -110		U 55½ -110

02:30 PM
127	Miami Florida	+14 -115		O 49½ -110
128	Florida State+1 Markets	-14 -105		U 49½ -110

02:30 PM
141	Oklahoma State	-2½ -115		O 65 -110
142	Central Florida+1 Markets	+2½ -105		U 65 -110

02:30 PM
145	Minnesota	pk -110		O 46½ -110
146	Purdue+1 Markets	pk -110		U 46½ -110

02:30 PM
153	Texas State	+2 -110		O 60 -110
154	Coastal Carolina+1 Markets	-2 -110		U 60 -110

02:30 PM
161	Northwestern	+11½ -110		O 42 -110
162	Wisconsin+1 Markets	-11½ -110		U 42 -110

02:30 PM
163	Rutgers	+2 -110		O 29½ -105
164	Iowa+1 Markets	-2 -110		U 29½ -115

02:30 PM
177	Utah	+9 -110		O 54½ -110
178	Washington+1 Markets	-9 -110		U 54½ -110

02:30 PM
195	Tennessee	-1½ -110		O 59 -110
196	Missouri	+1½ -110		U 59 -110

02:30 PM
211	New Mexico State	+5 -110		O 57½ -110
212	Western Kentucky	-5 -110		U 57½ -110

02:30 PM
213	Pittsburgh	-2 -110		O 37½ -110
214	Syracuse	+2 -110		U 37½ -110

02:30 PM
215	UAB	-4½ -110		O 54 -110
216	Navy	+4½ -110		U 54 -110

02:30 PM
219	Florida International	+10½ -115		O 53½ -110
220	Middle Tennessee State	-10½ -105		U 53½ -110

03:00 PM
123	East Carolina	+9½ -110		O 46 -110
124	Florida Atlantic+1 Markets	-9½ -110		U 46 -110

03:00 PM
175	Washington State	+1 -105		O 59 -110
176	California+1 Markets	-1 -115		U 59 -110

03:00 PM
197	Auburn	+3 -105		O 50 -110
198	Arkansas	-3 -115		U 50 -110

04:00 PM
221	Arkansas State	+11 -110		O 55 -110
222	South Alabama	-11 -110		U 55 -110

04:30 PM
181	Stanford	+21 -110		O 54 -110
182	Oregon State+1 Markets	-21 -110		U 54 -110

06:00 PM
143	Mississippi	+10½ -110		O 58½ -110
144	Georgia+1 Markets	-10½ -110		U 58½ -110

06:00 PM
157	Georgia Southern	-2 -115		O 57 -110
158	Marshall+1 Markets	+2 -105		U 57 -110

06:00 PM
201	West Virginia	+12½ -110		O 58½ -110
202	Oklahoma	-12½ -110		U 58½ -110

06:00 PM
207	Cincinnati	+2½ -115		O 55½ -110
208	Houston	-2½ -105		U 55½ -110

06:00 PM
223	San Diego State	+4 -110		O 47½ -110
224	Colorado State	-4 -110		U 47½ -110

06:30 PM
189	Rice	+12 -105		O 60 -110
190	UTSA+1 Markets	-12 -115		U 60 -110

06:30 PM
199	Florida	+13½ -105		O 63½ -110
200	LSU	-13½ -115		U 63½ -110

06:30 PM
203	Texas	-10½ -115		O 53½ -110
204	TCU	+10½ -105		U 53½ -110

06:30 PM
205	Mississippi State	+18 -110		O 44½ -110
206	Texas A&M	-18 -110		U 44½ -110

06:30 PM
225	Michigan State	+30½ -110		O 47½ -110
226	Ohio State	-30½ -110		U 47½ -110

07:00 PM
131	Duke	+11½ -110		O 50½ -110
132	North Carolina+1 Markets	-11½ -115		U 50½ -110

08:00 PM
179	Arizona State	+17 -105		O 46½ -110
180	UCLA+1 Markets	-17 -115		U 46½ -110

09:00 PM
167	New Mexico	+26 -110		O 61 -110
168	Boise State+1 Markets	-26 -110		U 61 -110

09:15 PM
171	Iowa State	-7 -115		O 42½ -110
172	BYU+1 Markets	+7 -105		U 42½ -110

09:30 PM
185	USC	+16 -110		O 73½ -110
186	Oregon+1 Markets	-16 -110		U 73½ -110

09:30 PM
227	Fresno State	-2 -115		O 56½ -110
228	San Jose State	+2 -110		U 56½ -110

10:00 PM
229	Air Force	-19 -110		O 49 -110
230	Hawaii	+19 -110		U 49 -110

 

[He Hate Me]

 

[Frank Costanza]

Alex Grinch let go by Riley. Not sure what took so long.

 

[KJ]

Alex Grinch let go by Riley. Not sure what took so long.

He definitely had some dirt on Riley, must have finally not cared enough about whatever it is

 

[Frank Costanza]

He definitely had some dirt on Riley, must have finally not cared enough about whatever it is

Yeah, must have been a good deal of it. Next level ineptness that SC has displayed.

 

[AliShaheed]

He definitely had some dirt on Riley, must have finally not cared enough about whatever it is

I'm sure it got to the point where the USC brass didn't give him a choice.

 

[KJ]

I'm sure it got to the point where the USC brass didn't give him a choice.

Yeah think I saw something that said this USC defense is breaking school records

 

[Frank Costanza]

Allar against an elite defense? Played Michigan without hesitation.

 

[jimmymo]

Michigan and Georgia Tech out of the gate........sitting at casino with DraftKings and 50 minutes before I have to leave to pick up daughter.....gonna get a few more down for sure

 

[jimmymo]

LOL at Oregon laying 17 to USC.......can't really disagree and this could very much be a fold the tents effort by the Trojans after the last stand last night.....

 

[KJ]

LOL at Oregon laying 17 to USC.......can't really disagree and this could very much be a fold the tents effort by the Trojans after the last stand last night.....

This one has 50 something to 20 something written all over it

 

[AliShaheed]

This one has 50 something to 20 something written all over it

Statement game for Lanning.

 

[KJ]

Statement game for Lanning.

Oregon defense will be the best that Caleb has seen which is unique to say. I have no clue how Rubbers stop that offense.

 

[M.W.]

Big plays

Clemson -14 (-117)
Wake/State under 45

Smaller plays

Miami +14.5
SMU -16

 

[Frank Costanza]

Feeling more and more that Ewers will be back this weekend vs. TCU.

He needs to be.

 

[Frank Costanza]

Best ATS:
8-1 Az, UNLV, Oregon
6-1-2 Rutgers
7-2 Coastal, Liberty, NM State, Penn St. Rice, San Jose St, Miami (OH)

Worst ATS:
1-9 Vandy
2-8 USC
2-7 Marshall, Miss St., Illinois & Temple

Best Over:
9-0 LSU
9-1 USC
8-1 New Mex
7-2 Memphis, Boise St., Ga. Tech, BC

Best Under:
8-1 Az
7-2 Tulane, Cuse, NC St., Ohio, UCLA, Oklahoma St., Iowa, Troy & Coastal Car

 

[EL CAPO]

why is marshall only 2.5 vs georgia southern ? ......cash cow of the year the fade marshall train ? why aren't books adjusting ?

okie state -2.5 vs ucf just seems short; they have handled multiple teams that have handled ucf handily.........obviously i'm missing something here besides the situational aspect after red river

old dominion looks like a moneyline upset waiting to happen as liberty has played little sisters of the poor left and right and has looked ripe and overrated since getting outgained by bowling green heavily in week 1 in my estimation

temple has been horrific at times - went and lookied at south florida scores recently and wow - go look at those scores and then ask yourself how bama did that

 

[B.A.R.]

why is marshall only 2.5 vs georgia southern ? ......cash cow of the year the fade marshall train ? why aren't books adjusting ?

okie state -2.5 vs ucf just seems short; they have handled multiple teams that have handled ucf handily.........obviously i'm missing something here besides the situational aspect after red river

old dominion looks like a moneyline upset waiting to happen as liberty has played little sisters of the poor left and right and has looked ripe and overrated since getting outgained by bowling green heavily in week 1 in my estimation

temple has been horrific at times - went and lookied at south florida scores recently and wow - go look at those scores and then ask yourself how bama did that

Paging @Dollaz !!

 

[KJ]

I've watched more Temple than anyone should ever be sentenced to because Warner's kid is the QB and sometimes it gets shoved down our throats here. He does actually look great at times...which leads to this conclusion.

They are a very good fade live after they score a TD if you can stomach it. Incredible value before they turn it over next possession.

 

[M.W.]

why is marshall only 2.5 vs georgia southern ? ......cash cow of the year the fade marshall train ? why aren't books adjusting ?

okie state -2.5 vs ucf just seems short; they have handled multiple teams that have handled ucf handily.........obviously i'm missing something here besides the situational aspect after red river

old dominion looks like a moneyline upset waiting to happen as liberty has played little sisters of the poor left and right and has looked ripe and overrated since getting outgained by bowling green heavily in week 1 in my estimation

temple has been horrific at times - went and lookied at south florida scores recently and wow - go look at those scores and then ask yourself how bama did that

It’s the 75 game for Marshall.

 

[Frank Costanza]

Michigan opponent snaps this season: 490
Michigan opponent snaps this season in a goal-to-go situation: 0

Amazing. Doesn't matter who you're playing.

 

[Frank Costanza]

AUSTIN, Texas -- Quarterback Quinn Ewers will start for No. 7 Texas against TCU after missing two games with a sprained shoulder, coach Steve Sarkisian said Thursday.

"He's had a great week of practice," Sarkisian said. "I thought he got stronger as the week went on. I really didn't feel like there was a throw he couldn't make."

Texas QB Ewers to return, start against TCU

Texas QB Quinn Ewers will start against TCU after missing two games with a sprained shoulder.

www.espn.com

 

[pressitup]

I goofed a play, meant to take O67.5 in smu /unt, under was recorded.
the line has dropped to 65 so I took over hoping it lands 66.
ray:

 

[spottie2935]

I goofed a play, meant to take O67.5 in smu /unt, under was recorded.
the line has dropped to 65 so I took over hoping it lands 66.
ray:

Interesting game tonight.

A bad running D team has covered 5 in a row, depending on last weeks line. I looked over some of NT's past games (lack of time). NT's opponents are able to meet their needs running the ball. The dont rack up an abundance of passing stats. I havent watched NT play.

Well tonight we are going to find out how good NT defense is against the pass.

Offensively NT has scored. It is really difficult for favorites to cover when their dog opponent can keep executing.

SMU season opponents have been pretty dang easy so that leads m to believe this is going to be dog cover and a scoring fest.

Sep 02, 2023	box	Saturday	1	2023	SMU	LTCH	home	14-0	17-0	0-7	7-7	38-14	-21.0	66.0	24	3.0	-14.0	-5.5	-8.5	W	W	U	0
Sep 09, 2023	box	Saturday	2	2023	SMU	OKLA	away	3-7	0-7	0-0	8-14	11-28	16.0	69.0	-17	-1.0	-30.0	-15.5	-14.5	L	L	U	0
Sep 16, 2023	box	Saturday	3	2023	SMU	PV	home	14-0	28-0	21-0	6-0	69-0	-42.5	63.5	69	26.5	5.5	16.0	-10.5	W	W	O	0
Sep 23, 2023	box	Saturday	4	2023	SMU	TCU	away	3-7	7-7	0-13	7-7	17-34	7.0	63.5	-17	-10.0	-12.5	-11.2	-1.2	L	L	U	0
Sep 30, 2023	box	Saturday	5	2023	SMU	CHAR	home	14-0	3-3	10-6	7-7	34-16	-22.5	53.0	18	-4.5	-3.0	-3.8	0.8	W	L	U	0
Oct 12, 2023	box	Thursday	7	2023	SMU	ECAR	away	14-0	0-10	0-0	17-0	31-10	-11.5	49.0	21	9.5	-8.0	0.8	-8.8	W	W	U	0
Oct 20, 2023	box	Friday	8	2023	SMU	TEM	away	14-0	10-0	17-0	14-0	55-0	-24.0	53.0	55	31.0	2.0	16.5	-14.5	W	W	O	0
Oct 28, 2023	box	Saturday	9	2023	SMU	TLS	home	28-3	24-0	14-0	3-7	69-10	-20.5	55.0	59	38.5	24.0	31.2	-7.2	W	W	O	0
Nov 04, 2023	box	Saturday	10	2023	SMU	RICE	away	14-7	10-14	9-7	3-3	36-31	-12.5	58.5	5	-7.5	8.5	0.5	8.0	W	L	O	0
Nov 10, 2023	box	Friday	11	2023	SMU	NTX	home						-18.0	65.5

Best opponents:
TCU
OKLA
and maybe RICE (4-5 su)

Its easy for SMU to stat up these games and they will stat up this game too. We gonna find out SMU if they can D up tonight. On paper NT has a strong Offense.

The data I use on this type of game is simple

I make assumptions that NT is going to score as per usual and use the line for SMU.

line<-17 and ooints>=20 and line>-24


the line is between thise because I cant use a line bigger than 24 because I am assuming 20+ points for North Texas. @0 point scored for the dog on bigger lines than -24 increases the win percent and ROI.

The ats result from such games:

ATS: favorite is	333-835-18 (28.5%)

season>2018 results : (remember the assumption is NT points>=20 NT has to score

ATS: favorite is	55-160-2 (25.6%)

 

[pressitup]

lands 66.

holy shit