Like always, player errors may be listed below, and possible missed injuries, as I tend to update that sunday morning.... but please share if you see it!... quick summaries.
HOU/TEN
HOU DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D.
TEN DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D.
Pace of play is T-12th worst (out of 15), O/U is T-10th with 3 others (so only 3 o/u's below, and only 2 pts higher than the bottom)
Tanny is T4-th worst ASR Matchup. Taylor? has the 3rd worst ASR matchup.
Da. Johnson? has the T10th worst ALY push, T-8th of main slate.
Without looking at snaps/salaries/etc. yet, I would attack this game from a one-off perspective and that would be either peterson or foreman ....... maybe aj brown/cooks. The pace is too slow, and the running game has a positive DVOA matchup, in a low o/u....but it's a big spread, and tennesse has quietly the 4th highest TTotal of the main slate, so they could be underowned, although the backs should be pretty cheap so idk about that.
BAL/CHI
BAL DVOA Matchup is good vs P/RB D.
CHI DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, meh vs RB D.
Pace of play is 15th (dead last), O/U is same as above game.
Fields has the T-7th worst ASR matchup. Lamar has the worst ASR matchup. (I know mack is out though)
La. Murray? has the T10th best ALY matchup, 8th of main slate. Montgomery? has the 3rd worst ALY matchup, 2nd of main slate.
Without looking at snaps/salaries/etc. yet, I want to avoid this game bigly. Lamar is always viable, but probably not at his price, with this kind of game ahead. We know we don't watch anything to do with there backfield ever either.... but I guess there are less mouths to feed than ever before (lol). Arob is out, and I don't hate the idea of one-offing Kmet over Mooney. I have to assume its a pretty low salary (Although not bottom). Baltimore has been susceptible to a home run hit or two though.... so if mass entering... maybe do 1 fields with mooney (or whomever), and 1 lamar with a ma.brown (or whomever/bateman)... again not fully on board though, but I get it.
I guess balty D can be used as they kind of tap both a positive ASR and ALY matchup, but there are others that look better that I'll mention later. Assuming BAL more expensive too.
MIA/NYJ
MIA DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D.
NYJ DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, meh vs RB D.
Pace of play is 4th. O/U is just like the 2 above.
Tua has the 10th worst ASR matchup.
Carter? has the 2nd worst ALY matchup, 1st of the main slate. Gaskin has the 9th worst ALY matchup, 7th of main slate.
Without looking at snaps/salaries/etc. yet, I feel like I say this every week with miami, but the pace of play in their games tends to be faster than others. I want to point out that they're the 4th fastest pace, but its the 2nd fastest of the main slate.... as the 2nd/3rd/5th fastest paces all belong to the primetime games. So I have interest here in miami team stacks, and mayeb game stacks with a jets bring back. Hoping this game gets overlooked, but we get a plus matchup, and low price point players (I'm guessing). Hard to pass up.
NOS/PHI
NOS DVOA Matchup is good vs P/RB D.
PHI DVOA Matchup is meh vs P D, and bad vs RB D.
Pace of play is T-8th for the week. O/U is dead last.
Hurts has the T-8th best ASR matchup, T-6 of main slate.
Ingram? has the 5th best ALY matchup, 4th of main slate.
Without looking at snaps/salaries/etc. yet, I think this game will be overlooked, but I don't hate one-offs. Ingram probably comes cheap, and/or a devonte smith type... not sure yet, I don't want overexposure here, but don't mind looking here if I need to fill a position.
IND/BUF
IND DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
BUF DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, bad vs RB D.
Pace of play is 10th. Yet O/U is 10th, Bills have 2nd highest TT.
Allen has the 2nd best ASR matchup. Wentz has the 10th best, 8th of main slate.
Moss? has the 7th best ALY matchup, 6th of main slate.
Without looking at snaps/salaries/etc. yet, 2nd highest team total, a good dvoa matchup, a great ASR matchup, a dual threat, a backfield we not only don't want to touch, but have a bad dvoa matchup. Allen with pass catchers should always be considered, but definitely here too as a leverage/pivot to the more popular game that we will see in the afternoon. Colts claim they want to give taylor more touches, and the guy is a machine (for my fantasy team(s) too) but I think we could pass on him here, I'd rather bring back with a catcher if anything. Maybe hines? if he's cheap enough.
DET/CLV
DET DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, meh vs RB D.
CLV DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is T-12th (out of 15). O/U is 1 up from the bottom. But don't ingore the big spread, CLV TT is 3rd highest.
Goffs backup has the T-4th worst ASR matchup.
Chubb? has the 3rd best ALY matchup, 2nd of main slate. Swift? has the 4th worst ALY matchup, 3rd of main slate.
Without looking at snaps/salaries/etc. yet, I think you have to consider Chubb as almost a lock and loaded play. You coulddd bring it back as a mini game stack with a lions player and/or clv DEF. I can see a scenario that swift can actually be optimal too with a TD, and a high involvement in the passing game, but I don't know if I can chase the salary (assuming its with the higher mid range tier. Nobody will be on Hock after his goose egg, and no goff, possible big leverage there, assuming a suppressed salary too.
More later!!
