Week 10...

horses

horses

Brady licks Marino's knob
I'll do a recap later, but went 3-3 this past week...just got home around 20 minutes ago and jumped on:

Kent St +9 over Bowling Green

Back with thoughts later...

Added plays that are posted within this thread:

Kansas St +9 over Kansas
UAB +8' over Southern Miss
TAMU -3' over Colorado
Louisville -12' over Syracuse
BYU -14 (-120) over Colorado St

FIU/ULL under 57' (.3 units)

That's a wrap.
 
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Tuesday Nite:

Buffalo +2 over Ohio (1/2 unit)

Line has drifted to 1', still was able to grab 2 at Skybook a little while back. RB Starks looks like he is a go for Buffalo, hupefully giving them the balance they need on offense. Think the better team is getting points, and albeit only a couple...I'll take my chances. Won't wait for ML as I fear all value may be gone by then.

Good luck.
 
With you on Buffalo, buddy! Hopefully, they perform better than the other Bulls we were on last week.

I've got to ask, what's your reasoning on Kent? I've seen the line plummet from 9 to 7, and I feel like a dumbass for not tailing you.

:shake:
 
I've got to ask, what's your reasoning on Kent? I've seen the line plummet from 9 to 7, and I feel like a dumbass for not tailing you.

Azzie, key for Kent St is getting RB Jarvis back; with him and QB Edelman in the backfield, they are a very difficult unit to stop, esp for these mediocre MAC defenses. Bowling Green showed well in the beginning of the year, but are struggling vs running QB's like NIU's Harnish last week...and Edelman this week. Kent defense nothing special but I see no reason they can't trade scores here as necessary. Not impressed with the home field in the MAC and the venue doesn't look intimidating at all...what...20K?
 
like kent as well i guess.

Well as long as you're sure.

Thanks for the good words folks.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
 
1st half observations...

Ohio missing out on their opportunities while the Bulls are punching it in so far; Gill seems to get pretty conservative with the lead, so I would lean to the Bobcats -3 +odds in the 2nd half...

Just going to keep the ticket I have and hope the Bulls can hold onto this lead.
 
horses said:
1st half observations...

Ohio missing out on their opportunities while the Bulls are punching it in so far; Gill seems to get pretty conservative with the lead, so I would lean to the Bobcats -3 +odds in the 2nd half...

Just going to keep the ticket I have and hope the Bulls can hold onto this lead.
Click to expand...

He was just conservative at the end of the Half. Buffalo has moved the ball at will, pretty much every series.

Bulls looking solid at this point. No done by any means, but unless Gil just forces the offense into a shell, they should hold on.
 
Azzie, I missed most of the first quarter because I was on the phone doing some stuff; thx, glad to hear it, let's bring this baby home and get the week off to a solid start. :shake:
 
Alot of cappers I respect are staying away from TCU, so I'll probably end up laying off the Horned Frogs.

I like Utah, but...the Utes have only won once in their last four trips to New Mexico. Granted, this is quite possibly one of the best Utah teams to ever take the field.

Yet, for some reason, I'm hesitant.
 
Thanks BAR; good luck to you this week.

Azzie, I found it hard to believe, but Utah has lost SU vs NM 5 out of the last 8 tries; however, as you say, this Utah team is a top 15 team in my opinion and laying a td or less seems very attractive.

DMoney, Thank you sir; it's going to be under or nothing for me tomorrow nite. See the total is sitting at 51 most places...opened at 50', did it not? You track the totals better than I do as I usually don't get around to identifying my totals plays until Wed nite. Tonite I will delve into this game more...but off the top, I see both defenses have a fair amount of succcess. Weather looks clear but maybe a tad chilly for the florida boys.

Don't you Cincy trying to run the ball a lot in this game?
 
may play that under tomorrow night as well...already on cinci.

horses, why would you lay over a td when accounting for the struggles utah has had against new mexico at their place and seeing as they have their toughest test the following week? i not only think utah is a top 15 team, i think they're a top 5-7 team, but i'm still on new mexico big. i understand that utah is a lot more than 7.5 better here, but the situation sucks and it's a situation that they've sucked in the past. i don't think you discount that as much as a power ratings type approach. my .02...i've been cold though; they'll probably roll by 50
 
Broadway,

First off, if I decide to play Utah, I would need to get it at 7 (-120); I generally prefer not to lay any more juice than that. So if I can't get that, I won't play, though I think that # is widely available right now. The situation definitely sucks donkey balls for the Utes, but is somewhat mitigated by the fact they are superior and know the need impressive wins. The fact the Lobos have had recent success against Utah is also noteworthy since Long has been at NM for all that success and I consider Whittingham the weakest of the 3 coaches of the MWC Big 3.

All that being said and all those intangibles sitting in NM's favor, I still like Utah's talent, esp since the Lobos really have no ability to throw the ball. Utah won by only 7 @ AF but outgained them to the tune of 440 to 190 yards; you usually win by more than 7 with that yardage differential and I see a similar scenario this weekend except the Lobo D is a little better than AF's, so maybe 375 yards for Utah. I think they shut Ferguson down and make one of those young Lobo QB's throw the ball, esp after they are behind. Ultimately, I don't like relying solely on the situation to cover a game and that's what I think Lobo backers have to count on...while I point to the AF game as being similar to this and they should have won by much more.

Good luck this wknd; this game is not a lock for my final card.
 
horses said:
Thanks BAR; good luck to you this week.

Azzie, I found it hard to believe, but Utah has lost SU vs NM 5 out of the last 8 tries; however, as you say, this Utah team is a top 15 team in my opinion and laying a td or less seems very attractive.

DMoney, Thank you sir; it's going to be under or nothing for me tomorrow nite. See the total is sitting at 51 most places...opened at 50', did it not? You track the totals better than I do as I usually don't get around to identifying my totals plays until Wed nite. Tonite I will delve into this game more...but off the top, I see both defenses have a fair amount of succcess. Weather looks clear but maybe a tad chilly for the florida boys.

Don't you Cincy trying to run the ball a lot in this game?
Click to expand...

Kelly took some of the blame for the Cincy loss for poor playcalling. They passed 47 times and ran only 19 times, and several of those 19 were sacks/broken plays, so it was even more lopsided.

The frustrating thing is that it looked like they may have been able to run a little. Here is one of their possession from the 2nd quarter:

<TABLE class=tablehead id=playTable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 14 at UC 5</TD><TD>Jacob Ramsey rush for 15 yards to the Cincy 20 for a 1ST down.</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>10</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>10</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at UC 20</TD><TD>Jacob Ramsey rush for 12 yards to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST down.</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at UC 32</TD><TD>Tony Pike pass incomplete to Marcus Barnett.</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 10 at UC 32</TD><TD>Tony Pike pass incomplete to Marcus Barnett.</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>3rd and 10 at UC 32</TD><TD>Tony Pike pass incomplete to Dominick Goodman.</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>4th and 10 at UC 32</TD><TD>Kevin Huber punt for 62 yards, downed at the UConn 6.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Also, Kelly hinted that he is putting together a package for QB Zach Collaros in this game, which means more running since he is a dual threat QB. He played the last half of the 4th quarter against Akron. Here were his possessions:


<TABLE class=tablehead id=playTable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at UC 28</TD><TD>Tony Pike pass complete to Marcus Barnett for 21 yards to the Cincy 49, tackled by Bryan Williams for a 1ST down.</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>14</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>15</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at UC 49</TD><TD>Jacob Ramsey rush for 2 yards to the Akron 49, tackled by Mike Thomas.</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 8 at AKR 49</TD><TD>Tony Pike pass complete to Marshwan Gilyard for 14 yards to the Akron 35, tackled by Aaron Williams for a 1ST down. (Pike injured on this play)</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at AKR 35</TD><TD>Zach Collaros rush for 5 yards to the Akron 30.</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 5 at AKR 30</TD><TD>Akron penalty 5 yard offside accepted.</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at AKR 25</TD><TD>Zach Collaros pass incomplete to Dominick Goodman, broken up by Miguel Graham.</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 10 at AKR 25</TD><TD>Zach Collaros rush for 3 yards to the Akron 25, tackled by Doug Williams, Cincinnati penalty 15 yard personal foul accepted.</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 22 at AKR 37</TD><TD>Zach Collaros pass incomplete to Marshwan Gilyard.</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>3rd and 22 at AKR 37</TD><TD>Zach Collaros rush for 7 yards to the Akron 30, tackled by Aaron Williams and Eric Lively.</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>4th and 15 at AKR 30</TD><TD class=greenfont>Jake Rogers 48 yard field goal GOOD.

</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>17</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>15</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE class=tablehead id=playTable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at UC 18</TD><TD>Jacob Ramsey rush for 14 yards to the Cincy 32, tackled by Tyler Campbell and Wayne Cobham for a 1ST down.</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>17</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>15</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at UC 32</TD><TD>Zach Collaros pass complete to D.J. Woods for 2 yards to the Cincy 34, tackled by Bryan Williams.</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 8 at UC 34</TD><TD>Zach Collaros rush for 3 yards to the Cincy 37, tackled by Kevin Grant.</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>3rd and 5 at UC 37</TD><TD>Zach Collaros pass incomplete to Marshwan Gilyard, broken up by Brandon Anderson.</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>4th and 5 at UC 37</TD><TD>Kevin Huber punt for 40 yards, fair catch by Andre Jones at the Akron 23.


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
So, obviously, there will be more running (and probably more short passes) with him at the helm. If Pike isn't 100%, wouldn't be surprised to see Collaros at QB for at least a couple of possessions. After all, the only reason Anderson started ahead of him against Marshall was because it was "his turn."

Lastly, they just need to run more. They haven't converted a 3rd down in two games: 0 for their last 25. They need more 3rd and 3s and less 3rd and 10s.
 
horses said:
Broadway,

First off, if I decide to play Utah, I would need to get it at 7 (-120); I generally prefer not to lay any more juice than that. So if I can't get that, I won't play, though I think that # is widely available right now. The situation definitely sucks donkey balls for the Utes, but is somewhat mitigated by the fact they are superior and know the need impressive wins. The fact the Lobos have had recent success against Utah is also noteworthy since Long has been at NM for all that success and I consider Whittingham the weakest of the 3 coaches of the MWC Big 3.

All that being said and all those intangibles sitting in NM's favor, I still like Utah's talent, esp since the Lobos really have no ability to throw the ball. Utah won by only 7 @ AF but outgained them to the tune of 440 to 190 yards; you usually win by more than 7 with that yardage differential and I see a similar scenario this weekend except the Lobo D is a little better than AF's, so maybe 375 yards for Utah. I think they shut Ferguson down and make one of those young Lobo QB's throw the ball, esp after they are behind. Ultimately, I don't like relying solely on the situation to cover a game and that's what I think Lobo backers have to count on...while I point to the AF game as being similar to this and they should have won by much more.

Good luck this wknd; this game is not a lock for my final card.
Click to expand...

I agree with this line of thinking and its why I'm on Utah. I also think the situational spot would be much worse if this team were 5-2 as opposed to 7-0 and playing for a BCS game.
 
They haven't converted a 3rd down in two games: 0 for their last 25.

Thank you for that gem, DMoney; that is rather amazing and represents a giant shove towards an under's bet.

I also think the situational spot would be much worse if this team were 5-2 as opposed to 7-0 and playing for a BCS game.

Yes, you said in one sentence what I tried to say in a paragraph.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
 
horses said:
They haven't converted a 3rd down in two games: 0 for their last 25.

Thank you for that gem, DMoney; that is rather amazing and represents a giant shove towards an under's bet.

I also think the situational spot would be much worse if this team were 5-2 as opposed to 7-0 and playing for a BCS game.

Yes, you said in one sentence what I tried to say in a paragraph.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
Click to expand...

I just think Kelly is a cocky son-of-a bitch who thinks who can force his spread offense onto anyone that plays QB. The Rutgers game was evidence that he couldn't (0-11 on 3rd down), but I guess it was overlooked since they still won the game. The UConn game proved it again and I think it was a bit of a shock to Kelly's system. He didn't do much talking this week and actually took a good amount of blame for the loss, which he rarely does.

For as good a coach as he is, he gets too fancy for his own good sometimes. One play that comes to mind is going for it on 4th and 10 around the UConn 30 down 20-16 late in the 3rd when Rogers had been booming FGs all day.

Another was the fake FG against USF last year that almost cost the team the game. One of the worst play calls I have personally ever seen.

I think he learned something from the UConn game and it will result in a more balanced attack on Thursday.
 
thanks for the response horses; i think we have a little different views on how good new mexico's defense is. i understand the AF comparisons; a fellow second tier MWC team that just beat new mexico, but i think that new mexico's defense played pretty good against some tough competition, and i don't see utah just running all over them here. the main problem has been turnovers for new mexico. they will still try to run just to control the clock, and gruner has been playing better each week and i expect him to limit his turnovers. utah showed they weren't invincible stopping the run in that oregon state game as rodgers ran for 4 ypc(although they've looked damn good otherwise). ian clark being back is a nice boost for new mexico defensively in the area they struggle the most, and he is a significant threat in the return game. i expect them to get sufficient pressure on the utes enough to affect the passing game. they held byu to 21 on the road, so i think it's possible in this situation to hold the utes to around there. i think that 375 net yardage projection is a little high there...i expect them to hold em under 300 yards as long as they don't turn the ball over and let the game get away early. and utah has shown they can completely dominate games and still not win by more than a td (michigan and air force they completely dominated both, and the situation was pretty much the opposite of this, which can't be much worse...)
 
Broadway, solid thoughts and if they do hold utah <300 yds I agree, they cover. Just not convinced that will happen, since BYU put up 385 or so and I think Utah has a more dynamic offense than BYU. At least I think they do. New Mexico is a tricky team in that the stats don't always reflect the score and vice versa...they do play a tough brand of football and Long's teams always improve as the season goes on...i'm in no hurry to play road chalk here and will continue to monitor...but like I said...my lean is Utah.
 
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horses said:
I also think the situational spot would be much worse if this team were 5-2 as opposed to 7-0 and playing for a BCS game.

Yes, you said in one sentence what I tried to say in a paragraph.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
Click to expand...

well, i guess i disagree with you guys here. they have to have an impressive showing vs tcu to get a bcs game. i am not sure how many people would care if they beat new mexico 21-17 or win 35-14...and i don't see them putting 40 up or completely shutting out new mexico on the road. new mexico's superbowl in an evening game and may be the way they make it to a bowl or not make it to a bowl. utah doesn't play tcu a week later, they play em 5 days later. there is just no way in hell that they can't be thinking about that game imo
 
horses said:
Broadway, solid thoughts and if they do hold utah <300 yds I agree, they cover. Just not convinced that will happen, since BYU put up 385 or so and I think Utah has a more dynamic offense than Utah. At least I think they do. New Mexico is a tricky team in that the stats don't always reflect the score and vice versa...they do play a tough brand of football and Long's teams always improve as the season goes on...i'm in no hurry to play road chalk here and will continue to monitor...but like I said...my lean is Utah.
Click to expand...

absolutely agree that utah has a more dynamic offense than byu, but that byu game was on the road and without ian clark...also they still shut them out for the first 20 minutes of that game. just a little devil's advocate on that, but can certainly see your point...no excuse to give up 385
 
New Mexico is one of those teams that no matter which way I go, I wind up losing. Know what I mean ?
Play on against TCU - Lose
Play on against A & M - Lose
Against v Arizona - Lose
Against v New Mexico St - Lose
Play on against Air Force - Lose

I lean toward Utah against New Mexico. But if I stay away, will you donate 50% of your winnings on the game to me? LOL
GL- Whatever.
 
bull said:
New Mexico is one of those teams that no matter which way I go, I wind up losing. Know what I mean ?
Play on against TCU - Lose
Play on against A & M - Lose
Against v Arizona - Lose
Against v New Mexico St - Lose
Play on against Air Force - Lose

I lean toward Utah against New Mexico. But if I stay away, will you donate 50% of your winnings on the game to me? LOL
GL- Whatever.
Click to expand...

:36_11_6:
 
Thanks Bull; hmmm...pay you to stay away from the Utah/New Mexico game?! I actually can't believe you bet 5 games involving the Lobos, being the FCS expert that you are.

I haven't bet one game involving the Lobos so far to date; they usually get better ATS as the season goes on since their team usually improves as well.
 
horses - If it's not too much to ask, can I get your thoughts on two potential sides for me?...

Air Force -8 @ Army

Missouri -20 @ Baylor


:cheers:
 
Dmoney416 said:
I just think Kelly is a cocky son-of-a bitch who thinks who can force his spread offense onto anyone that plays QB. The Rutgers game was evidence that he couldn't (0-11 on 3rd down), but I guess it was overlooked since they still won the game. The UConn game proved it again and I think it was a bit of a shock to Kelly's system. He didn't do much talking this week and actually took a good amount of blame for the loss, which he rarely does.

For as good a coach as he is, he gets too fancy for his own good sometimes. One play that comes to mind is going for it on 4th and 10 around the UConn 30 down 20-16 late in the 3rd when Rogers had been booming FGs all day.

Another was the fake FG against USF last year that almost cost the team the game. One of the worst play calls I have personally ever seen.

I think he learned something from the UConn game and it will result in a more balanced attack on Thursday.
Click to expand...

That's a GREAT summazation of Kelly. Has some Meyer, Stoops, Weis in him.
 
horses - If it's not too much to ask, can I get your thoughts on two potential sides for me?...

Air Force -8 @ Army

Missouri -20 @ Baylor

The military gm I am very neutral on; Air Force has covered 5 in a row at West Point, but since QB Bowden moved into the Cadet starting line-up, they are 5-0 ATS. I was hoping for a slightly higher total to play Under, since the clock will be rolling and both defenses should be well versed in stopping the other's offense, but 40' is a low number but probably still a couple points too high. Air Force will no doubt get the better of it on the stat sheet, but Army has been scrappy as of late and like I said, they're on a 5-0 ATS run and it's tough to get in front of a streak.

Griffin accounts for almost 70% of the Baylor offense; superior teams can usually contain (not stop) one guy and coast on offense...sorta like Missouri will probably do here. Still, the backdoor potential of Baylor in this one has me scared since I don't think Missou necessarily has a shutdown defense.

Neither of these will be on my final card but I lean Under and Missouri.

Good luck this week.
 
Kent St @ Bowling Green line now down to 6; I made the line about 5, so I am officially on the lookout for a possible middle...playing about .4 or .5 units back on Bowling Green.
 
Lots of good info in this thread.. will check back later to see if ya pull the trigger on that total in Cincy. GL Horses
 
Thx Grind...

looking over the game tonite, I knew I was gonna bet something...small; it came down to the bulls or the under. Decided on the under based on the bulls injuries on offense, esp their RT whose name I do not have on me. He was replaced by a frosh last week during the louisville game and groethe got sacked 5 times...by far the most he's been sacked this year. Bulls also without RB Ford and their best blocking TE. They'll also be missing LB Mompremier and S Williams is ?. Basically, the bulls are one beat up team. Cincy offensive problems well documented and to keep this game close, they'll do it on defense in my opinion. The short turnaround concerns me, as usually short rest favors offenses. Nevertheless:

South Florida/Cincinnati Under 51 (-115) (.4 units)

(I hardly ever buy pts on totals but I wanted to get this back to this number).

Good luck tonite.
 
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Let's do it horses.

Just an FYI, there are rumblings on the Cincy boards that Anderson was injured in practice yesterday. They say it wasn't serious, but he will only play if needed which makes Pike the #1 tonight with Collaros backing him up. I'll check back if something more official comes up.
 
You know more about the Kitties than I do, but if Pike plays, to me that favors over and Cinciinati. Basing this on the entire playbook being availalbe with Pike under center vice either of the other two. Yes?
 
horses said:
You know more about the Kitties than I do, but if Pike plays, to me that favors over and Cinciinati. Basing this on the entire playbook being availalbe with Pike under center vice either of the other two. Yes?
Click to expand...

Yes on both, but only if he's healthy enough (which he didn't appear to be last week). I still would have made this total around 47 if Pike was a definite, and I still think they run more tonight so USF can key so much on the pass. It may be 1-3 yard runs a fair amount of time, but they have to mix it up.

FWIW, though, Garfather said on your site that he prefers Anderson to Pike. I personally do not though.
 
Kelly just mentioned on his show that Anderson did indeed get injured. So it looks like either Pike (who is still a game-time decision as far as know) or Collaros.
 
scores and odds and vegas insider both have pike downgraded to doubtful. i know not always the most reliable but thought it worth noting.
 
Jeez, if Collaros goes I may have to add USF...and to my under. We'll see...don't want a ton of exposure for this game.
 
horses said:
Jeez, if Collaros goes I may have to add USF...and to my under. We'll see...don't want a ton of exposure for this game.
Click to expand...

Apologies in advance if I'm wrong here, as part of my under is based on what offensive changes that I anticipate Cincinnati will make tonight.

Need Cincy though, so health if you end up on the Bulls.
 
2-0 heading into the weekend...

posting 'em as I play 'em:

BYU -14 (-115) over Colorado St
TAMU -3' over Colorado

BOO!!!!!!!!
 
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