Week 10 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Last week was much better. 9-4 for the week, which brings the season total back to as good as a coin flip (66-66-2), although you're hemorrhaging money if you're paying juice north of -110 like I've been. Looking to get on a roll, but these lines are getting tighter and tighter just like they do every year at this time. Not a huge amount of marquee games(and nothing late night at all???) but there's slew of interesting ones. Also quite a few games that hinge on injuries that we'll have to keep an eye on.

ARMY -21.5--------Bought off with AF
Penn State +3 LOSS
Ole Miss -7.5 WIN
Vanderbilt +7.5 WIN
Tulsa +2.5 LOSS
North Carolina -2 WIN
Texas Tech +14 WIN
Florida +14.5 WIN
Oregon -14.5 WIN
Wyoming +7.5 WIN
Washington +2.5 WIN
Iowa -2.5 WIN
South Carolina +3.5 WIN
Clemson -10 LOSS


10-3




1, @Army -21.5 v Air Force: ********Late note. I bought off this on the news Bryson Daily is out. Somehow got AF +22.5 So hoping for a 22 point Army win. Would not lay this much with Army without Daily,


The fall from grace for this Air Force team has really been a head scratcher, but it is very real. Consider: Since starting last season with a 8-0 record, from the time they teed it up with Army in week 9, they have gone 0-10 straight up in their regular season games against FBS opponents. The slide began when they were 17 point home favorites against this Army team and got humiliated 23-3. This year, the results have been horrifying. The only win is against an FCS Merrimack team that UConn had a 56-0 halftime lead against the following week. the offense has been an abomination, topping 300 yards only against Wyoming and the worst defense in FBS in New Mexico(who beat them by 15 points). Enter Army, a team better than the team that handled a better Air Force team last year. The gulf between each team's performances on both sides of the ball is extreme, and we're talking about pretty comparable schedules. Air Force's defense is almost as bad as their offense, and Bryson Daily should be able to run wild with that power running scheme Army's been running. Service academies typically know how to defend each other, but Army is running something different than the option. Also, even if they did employ a true option, Air Force can't stop that either, which was indicated by the box score of the Navy game a couple weeks ago. If Army is motivated, they should be able to get margin here without any trouble. Air Force can't stop the run and they can't move the ball enough to scare anyone into thinking they can keep up on the scoreboard.

***Late edit. I see this line is rising, and it looks like it's going to continue to go up. I would not go as high as 23.5 or anything approaching 24. My reasoning is a couple posts below.

Bought out of this one due to the Daily injury. Air Force was never in this one, but Army wasn't going to get margin because they just wanted to get through the game without Daily and they were unlikely to try to run it up against another SA anyway. Only 250 yards for Army.
 
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B.A.R. said:
Great work last time out.

I cannot disagree here. This one should be a rout!
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Thanks BAR. This is a bet I usually wouldn't make due to service academy historical results, but Air Force has been so bad, and it was a clean sweep on my numbers(which is very rare), I couldn't pass it up. Also had a feeling that this line is going to keep going up, and it looks like it has. I would caution though...if this gets close to 24 I wouldn't go that high, because I don't think you'll see Army with any motivation to kick dirt on another service academy, and Army totally lost interest when they were up big a couple weeks ago against ECU.
 
2. @Penn State +3 v Ohio State (BR) : I missed the 4 and even the 3.5, but I like Penn State down to a field goal. I have these two teams as pretty much a tossup or a minor edge for OSU on a neutral site, so I'll definitely take points with Penn State at home. Hitching your wagon to Small Game James Franklin is potentially a problem, but the satanic rodent Ryan Day has had just as hard of time in those situations lately, so that might actually even itself out. Both teams are dealing with some injures, but I think the injuries on Ohio State's offensive line are probably the most problematic. OSU was actually handled on both lines last week against Nebraska, but it was their first full game without starting LT Josh Simmons. They threw Zen Michalski into that spot last week, and he got hurt as well. He didn't play worth a shit when he was in there, but now that he's out, it upsets the integrity of the entire line because they'll probably have to move guard Donavan Jackson out there and replace him with someone else. Penn State is of course very solid against the run, having held all but 2 opponents under 100 yards rushing this year. If Ohio State is forced to be one dimensional, I don't know that I trust Will Howard to stand back there and throw it 40 times. PSU QB Drew Allar is banged up, but I don't dislike that OSU now has to also prepare for Beau Pribula at QB who is a much more accomplished runner than Allar and presents some preparation issues for the Buckeyes. Even when they've been less resourceful, Penn State has been able to hang with he Buckeyes, and I think this offense under Kotelnicki is probably the best one they've had under Frankiln. I think PSU will have the edge in the trenches much like Nebraska did last week with the state of flux the OSU offensive line finds themselves in. In a game that looks to be very evenly matched in a great atmosphere(even though it's early in the day), I see value in the points.

Penn State's offense was bad. A couple decent plays for Warren to get them into position a couple times but that was it. Kotelnicki not great, and he was really bad on that last drive where they got stuffed at he goal line. 3 straight line plunges with the OL in motion that didn't have a prayer and then a generic heave into traffic. Take away the pick 6 and this game was not all that competitive. PSU definitely the wrong side. Small Game James perpetuates.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
I was talking about the last window, the latest start time is 8PM. Usually we have a couple 10 or 10:30 starts that are pretty good. Pitt/SMU definitely one of the marquee games for sure.
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Yea there nothing after that game. Product of these west coast schools now playing in eastern time zones for their road games?
 
3. Ole Miss -7(-118) @Arkansas(BOL) : This game's set up kind of reminds me of another game involving Ole Miss that I was on the wrong side of and that's the Rebels' game at South Carolina about a month ago. They were playing on the road a week after a sluggish performance and pretty much took care of business against a dangerous opponent. Same thing here as the Rebs are coming off a game that they sleepwalked through a game with Oklahoma where they were down at halftime and gave up 235 yards in the first half to an offense that couldn't walk and chew gum all year. They turned it around in the second half, limiting OU to less than 100 yards in the second half. Now they head over to Arkansas in a tough spot as a 7 point favorite(7.5 in a lot of spots as the market is moving their way). Arkansas however is banged up at running back as both Jaquinden Jackson and his backup Braylon Russell, who has looked great are both injured and appear to be out. It's almost impossible to run on Ole Miss anyway as they are ranked 2nd in the country in yards per rush attempt against, but it's going to be much harder with Taylen Green effectively a one man gang. I also think the Arkansas OL is going to have a hard time keeping Green upright as Ole Miss's front 7 looks like they are getting healthier (Nolen especially). Tre Harris is still hurt for Ole Miss but he might play, and even without him Dart threw for 10 yards per attempt against Oklahoma last week. Ole Miss is also 7-1-2 as a road favorite in their last 10, so they're in a comfortable role. Arkansas's defense is just ok, and struggles in pass coverage, and both of their lines are going to be behind the 8 ball against the Rebs. Hate laying with road favorites, but this is one that males sense.

Not sure what happened to the Hogs, but they hardly showed up. Green got nicked up early, and the defense was helpless. Just about 700 yards for Ole Miss, WOW. Backup QB Singleton was pretty good in mop up duty for Arkansas. At least they moved it.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
2. @Penn State +3 v Ohio State (BR) : I missed the 4 and even the 3.5, but I like Penn State down to a field goal. I have these two teams as pretty much a tossup or a minor edge for OSU on a neutral site, so I'll definitely take points with Penn State at home. Hitching your wagon to Small Game James Franklin is potentially a problem, but the satanic rodent Ryan Day has had just as hard of time in those situations lately, so that might actually even itself out. Both teams are dealing with some injures, but I think the injuries on Ohio State's offensive line are probably the most problematic. OSU was actually handled on both lines last week against Nebraska, but it was their first full game without starting LT Josh Simmons. They threw Zen Michalski into that spot last week, and he got hurt as well. He didn't play worth a shit when he was in there, but now that he's out, it upsets the integrity of the entire line because they'll probably have to move guard Donavan Jackson out there and replace him with someone else. Penn State is of course very solid against the run, having held all but 2 opponents under 100 yards rushing this year. If Ohio State is forced to be one dimensional, I don't know that I trust Will Howard to stand back there and throw it 40 times. PSU QB Drew Allar is banged up, but I don't dislike that OSU now has to also prepare for Beau Pribula at QB who is a much more accomplished runner than Allar and presents some preparation issues for the Buckeyes. Even when they've been less resourceful, Penn State has been able to hang with he Buckeyes, and I think this offense under Kotelnicki is probably the best one they've had under Frankiln. I think PSU will have the edge in the trenches much like Nebraska did last week with the state of flux the OSU offensive line finds themselves in. In a game that looks to be very evenly matched in a great atmosphere(even though it's early in the day), I see value in the points.
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"Small Game James Franklin"?

Beautiful.
 
4. Vanderbilt +7.5 @Auburn (BOL): Now that this has gotten over a TD, I have to play Vandy on principle. If both of these teams have proven anything it's that one of them is resourceful and the other is the opposite of resourceful. I will acknowledge that strictly on paper, Auburn looks like the right side. They had a hellaciously good game in the running game last week at Kentucky and put it on a Wildcats team that nobody can figure out. But let us not forget what has happened to them this year. That win last week was their first over any kind of decent competition(New Mexico and Alabama A&M were their other wins) and that they are a 3-6 for a reason. Their other 3 FBS home games are all losses, against Arkansas, Cal and Oklahoma, 3 teams that haven't necessarily set the world on fire. Also, in two of those games, they dominated the actual play on the field, much like some might expect them to do this week, but lost those games outright because they do things that cause them to lose games. Vanderbilt as currently constructed does the opposite. Among high level FBS competition as a dog, they've beaten Alabama, beaten Kentucky on the road, beaten Virginia Tech and lost by a FG to both Texas and Missouri. I would not expect, after those kinds of results that they would lay an egg and lose to a totally un-trustable Auburn squad by more than they've lost to those other teams. Now, having said all of that, the rumors are that Diego Pavia is definitely not at 100%, which could pose some problems because his ability to run is very important, but I think the fact he's still playing tells us how much this game and the remaining ones mean to this Vandy squad. They're proud of what they've accomplished and want to finish it off with bowl eligibility. I think everyone is aware of what Pavia and Kill(people talk about him like he's the Vandy head coach) have done to Hugh Freeze the past two years, so there's no chance that they'll walk into this game without confidence. I am completely aware of the edges Auburn has, but the fact is they cannot be trusted in this role. If they bury Vandy, I'll tip my cap, but there's very little evidence that this year's Auburn team is capable of that, even if you gave them 6 or 8 NFL players and added them to the lineup. this line might go up even more, so keep an eye out.

Vandy only managed 227 yards, but it was enough because Auburn will find ways to lose more times than not. Outgained the Dores by 100, but they would have had to outgain them by 300 to cover this one. Maybe more. Auburn is the king of empty yards. They rank 45th in yards per play, but 115th in points per play. That's inefficiency
 
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Br@ssknux said:
3. Ole Miss -7(-118) @Arkansas(BOL) : This game's set up kind of reminds me of another game involving Ole Miss that I was on the wrong side of and that's the Rebels' game at South Carolina about a month ago. They were playing on the road a week after a sluggish performance and pretty much took care of business against a dangerous opponent. Same thing here as the Rebs are coming off a game that they sleepwalked through a game with Oklahoma where they were down at halftime and gave up 235 yards in the first half to an offense that couldn't walk and chew gum all year. They turned it around in the second half, limiting OU to less than 100 yards in the second half. Now they head over to Arkansas in a tough spot as a 7 point favorite(7.5 in a lot of spots as the market is moving their way). Arkansas however is banged up at running back as both Jaquinden Jackson and his backup Braylon Russell, who has looked great are both injured and appear to be out. It's almost impossible to run on Ole Miss anyway as they are ranked 2nd in the country in yards per rush attempt against, but it's going to be much harder with Taylen Green effectively a one man gang. I also think the Arkansas OL is going to have a hard time keeping Green upright as Ole Miss's front 7 looks like they are getting healthier (Nolen especially). Tre Harris is still hurt for Ole Miss but he might play, and even without him Dart threw for 10 yards per attempt against Oklahoma last week. Ole Miss is also 7-1-2 as a road favorite in their last 10, so they're in a comfortable role. Arkansas's defense is just ok, and struggles in pass coverage, and both of their lines are going to be behind the 8 ball against the Rebs. Hate laying with road favorites, but this is one that males sense.
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FYI, just found info that Braylon Russell practiced without limitation today so he's probably going to play. Sticking with this play but that might change things for some people. Probably will not have any impact on the line.
 
5. Tulsa +2.5 @UAB (BOL) : I know Tulsa is no great shakes, but I'm surprised UAB is favored against just about anyone at this point. Tulsa ruined me last week with a miraculous comeback at home against UTSA when they were down 35-7 at half. Kevin Wilson made the move to former Utah State QB Cooper Legas in the second quarter, and it paid off as Legas threw for 330 yards and 5 TDs without an INT to lead the comeback. Legas had several good games including a couple huge comebacks for Utah State when he played there, so this was not unprecedented. He'll be the starter this week in Birmingham and he'll get to feast on what has been an awful UAB defense. The Blazers rank 119th in yards per play against, 126th against the run and 116th against the pass on a per attempt basis. Tulsa's D isn't great but they are competitive against the run, and UAB will again be without Jared Zeno at QB, who makes them occasionally competent on the offensive end running Trent Dilfer's squirt gun dump off offense. Without him they've been using Jalen Kitna, who was exiled from Florida for some sort of deviant behavior. He's represented a drop off from Zeno has he's tossed 6 INTs and completed only 57% of his passes. The Blazers are 1-6 and are probably seeing the writing on the wall for Dilfer, so I don't suspect we'll et an inspired performance. On the contrary, Tulsa is 3-5 and doesn't have anyone overly concerning left on their schedule, so I'm sure they'll be gunning for a bowl berth and will be properly motivated. As bad as Tulsa has been, they once again find themselves in their sweet spot as a road dog, and they definitely do well in that scenario. (12-5 as a road dog)

Well, if you're going to miss, it might as well be like that. Tulsa was never in it from the beginning. Jon Kitna's kid, who previously hadn't done anything positive, threw for 400+. Not a great defensive effort from the Golden Hurricane.
 
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6. North Carolina -2 @Florida State(BOL) : North Carolina endured a 4 game losing streak with some terrible performances included in there, but they broke out of it last week with a dominating performance at Virginia. That brought their record to 4-4, and now they're back on the road again this week at Florida State and that's probably a good thing because the vibe hasn't been great in Kenan Stadium. Florida State has been terrible all year on both sides of the ball but especially on offense where they rank at the bottom of FBS in pretty much every category. They can't run the ball, and now they've turned the keys over to the twosome of Brock Glenn and Luke Kromenhoek. Neither has been able to help in the pass game as they both fail to average even 5 yards per pass attempt. The FSU offensive line also can't protect, so both of these guys will be running for their lives against a North Carolina defense that ranks 14th in sacks. FSU has not cracked 300 yards of total offense in any game this year. North Carolina might be their best hope at doing that, but the Tar Heels are good on third down, and their primary weakness of pass coverage is not likely to be tested by the Seminoles. Offensively, since their opener at Minnesota, which they won, North Carolina has not failed to total over 400 yards in any game this season. Jacoby Criswell has been surprisingly good(almost 8 yards per attempt, 10/3 ratio) and Omarrion Hampton is already over 1000 yards. I just don't see either of those two FSU QBs being able to to have a lot of success in this game, and North Carolina should be able to pile up the yardage like they always do. Despite how bad they are this year, people still are excited to beat FSU at Doak Campbell stadium, and UNC's last 4 are very gettable(which would make them 8-4), so I think their full attention will be on this one.

Florida State is the worst team, perhaps among all power 5 schools. They would probably beat Purdue, maybe Mississippi State. The Cal win was a fluke. They were outgained 500-201 in this one against a mediocre underachieving team on their home field. They're also stuck with Mike Norvell unless a hefty check gets written.
 
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I just loved that story about Clark Lea going to try and hire Tim Beck and Jerry Kill comes to the interview and hits it off with Lea who convinces him to come to Vandy. Jerry Kill is an amazing coach, glad he's still involved with all he has gone through. BOL Brass!
 
Br@ssknux said:
4. Vanderbilt +7.5 @Auburn (BOL): Now that this has gotten over a TD, I have to play Vandy on principle. If both of these teams have proven anything it's that one of them is resourceful and the other is the opposite of resourceful. I will acknowledge that strictly on paper, Auburn looks like the right side. They had a hellaciously good game in the running game last week at Kentucky and put it on a Wildcats team that nobody can figure out. But let us not forget what has happened to them this year. That win last week was their first over any kind of decent competition(New Mexico and Alabama A&M were their other wins) and that they are a 3-6 for a reason. Their other 3 FBS home games are all losses, against Arkansas, Cal and Oklahoma, 3 teams that haven't necessarily set the world on fire. Also, in two of those games, they dominated the actual play on the field, much like some might expect them to do this week, but lost those games outright because they do things that cause them to lose games. Vanderbilt as currently constructed does the opposite. Among high level FBS competition as a dog, they've beaten Alabama, beaten Kentucky on the road, beaten Virginia Tech and lost by a FG to both Texas and Missouri. I would not expect, after those kinds of results that they would lay an egg and lose to a totally un-trustable Auburn squad by more than they've lost to those other teams. Now, having said all of that, the rumors are that Diego Pavia is definitely not at 100%, which could pose some problems because his ability to run is very important, but I think the fact he's still playing tells us how much this game and the remaining ones mean to this Vandy squad. They're proud of what they've accomplished and want to finish it off with bowl eligibility. I think everyone is aware of what Pavia and Kill(people talk about him like he's the Vandy head coach) have done to Hugh Freeze the past two years, so there's no chance that they'll walk into this game without confidence. I am completely aware of the edges Auburn has, but the fact is they cannot be trusted in this role. If they bury Vandy, I'll tip my cap, but there's very little evidence that this year's Auburn team is capable of that, even if you gave them 6 or 8 NFL players and added them to the lineup. this line might go up even more, so keep an eye out.
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I'm not sure this is totally accurate, but I don't think AU has beaten a team with a winning record since Gus Malzahn was their coach. I'm fairly certain Freeze hasn't
 
Br@ssknux said:
3. Ole Miss -7(-118) @Arkansas(BOL) : This game's set up kind of reminds me of another game involving Ole Miss that I was on the wrong side of and that's the Rebels' game at South Carolina about a month ago. They were playing on the road a week after a sluggish performance and pretty much took care of business against a dangerous opponent. Same thing here as the Rebs are coming off a game that they sleepwalked through a game with Oklahoma where they were down at halftime and gave up 235 yards in the first half to an offense that couldn't walk and chew gum all year. They turned it around in the second half, limiting OU to less than 100 yards in the second half. Now they head over to Arkansas in a tough spot as a 7 point favorite(7.5 in a lot of spots as the market is moving their way). Arkansas however is banged up at running back as both Jaquinden Jackson and his backup Braylon Russell, who has looked great are both injured and appear to be out. It's almost impossible to run on Ole Miss anyway as they are ranked 2nd in the country in yards per rush attempt against, but it's going to be much harder with Taylen Green effectively a one man gang. I also think the Arkansas OL is going to have a hard time keeping Green upright as Ole Miss's front 7 looks like they are getting healthier (Nolen especially). Tre Harris is still hurt for Ole Miss but he might play, and even without him Dart threw for 10 yards per attempt against Oklahoma last week. Ole Miss is also 7-1-2 as a road favorite in their last 10, so they're in a comfortable role. Arkansas's defense is just ok, and struggles in pass coverage, and both of their lines are going to be behind the 8 ball against the Rebs. Hate laying with road favorites, but this is one that males sense.
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I agree with a lot of this but I do think Rebs oline could have just as many issues protecting dart. I do think as the game goes it more likely Rebs offense figure some things out but my boy Jaylen green like a box of chocolates, yes Rebs fantastic front against a patchwork line could be all over green but so is liable to pull some shit out his ass and put up a big play from anywhere, or he could score for Rebs! I honestly believe both defenses are the stronger sides early, Rebs will figure out how to consistently move the bsll as the game goes but the closer they get to the endzone the less a issue arky secondary becomes and can be masked, think there a good chance they settle for some fgs. If arky actually drives the ball I have no doubt Rebs can hold them out but arky scores if they come will come from green making up a play nobody even knows what he running yet he makes it work for a td! 😂 I have no clue how to pick a side here, the 7 super tempting to me but no final score shocks me here. Where I feel confident and maybe a tad crazy is I really like the 1st half under 27.5 here, I lean under game but couldn’t tell ya how many times I was dancing bout a sec under until 40 points happened in the 4th so I’ll stick with half where I think for most part the defenses will havd early edge outside a big play from someone, Feel pretty good this something like 13_10 or 24-0 after a half. I just don’t think we see 28+ cause both teams have dudes up front on d, both teams have a good idea how to defend these rpo offenses. The fact they have green and dart rush totals so low screams to me both of them taking some sacks early on. Finally some cool crisp fall
Air and I think the defenses come out and make life difficult early in this game, like I said I think Rebs will slowly fugufe out ways to drive ball but getting tds might be an issue. Whether green hits some crazy backyard football plays to make the 2nd half very interesting not sure, I think he migh but I’ll leave the side alone cause I think this 1st half under cashes.
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. @Penn State +3 v Ohio State (BR) : I missed the 4 and even the 3.5, but I like Penn State down to a field goal. I have these two teams as pretty much a tossup or a minor edge for OSU on a neutral site, so I'll definitely take points with Penn State at home. Hitching your wagon to Small Game James Franklin is potentially a problem, but the satanic rodent Ryan Day has had just as hard of time in those situations lately, so that might actually even itself out. Both teams are dealing with some injures, but I think the injuries on Ohio State's offensive line are probably the most problematic. OSU was actually handled on both lines last week against Nebraska, but it was their first full game without starting LT Josh Simmons. They threw Zen Michalski into that spot last week, and he got hurt as well. He didn't play worth a shit when he was in there, but now that he's out, it upsets the integrity of the entire line because they'll probably have to move guard Donavan Jackson out there and replace him with someone else. Penn State is of course very solid against the run, having held all but 2 opponents under 100 yards rushing this year. If Ohio State is forced to be one dimensional, I don't know that I trust Will Howard to stand back there and throw it 40 times. PSU QB Drew Allar is banged up, but I don't dislike that OSU now has to also prepare for Beau Pribula at QB who is a much more accomplished runner than Allar and presents some preparation issues for the Buckeyes. Even when they've been less resourceful, Penn State has been able to hang with he Buckeyes, and I think this offense under Kotelnicki is probably the best one they've had under Frankiln. I think PSU will have the edge in the trenches much like Nebraska did last week with the state of flux the OSU offensive line finds themselves in. In a game that looks to be very evenly matched in a great atmosphere(even though it's early in the day), I see value in the points.
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This might sound really stupid but I’ve started looking at this season a little more like nfl thanks to the 12 game playoff (which I like, I don’t like these retarded huge conf there no way to crown real champ since half them can’t play each other, but I digress). Normally I’m all bout finding the matchups and capping in the way we do this. I havnt even tried to break this game down as you have done so well. For me isn’t this why we have a 12 team playoff? James Franklin begged for a way in playoffs without having to beat tOSU or Mich w Harbaugh, or now the ducks? He can lose this game like always and pen st still be a playoff team!! Osu can’t afford to take a 2nd loss and put themselves at mercy of ppl in a room. How they played vs corn last week really isn’t important to me, they just came off a Game they shoulda won in Oregon where they never been and nobody wins! Corn just came off looking like bitches vs Indy, that a Game osu just needed to win, how it looked I don’t think will look anything like this week. Maybe I’m making a mistake going about it this way but I see more nfl In the college results this year and then we add in tOSU always beats peanut head!! I only got to lay a fg and for some reason more ppl taking pen st in this gene than I ever remember!! Call me crazy, like always if I lose that means some my fav guys win so not all bad but I gotta take the Ohio st and just like with byu last week I can live with losing it, I can’t live with not playing it! Gl buddy
 
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2daBank said:
This might sound really stupid but I’ve started looking at this season a little more like nfl thanks to the 12 game playoff (which I like, I don’t like these retarded huge conf there no way to crown real champ since half them can’t play each other, but I digress). Normally I’m all bout finding the matchups and capping in the way we do this. I havnt even tried to break this game down as you have done so well. For me isn’t this why we have a 12 team playoff? James Franklin begged for a way in playoffs without having to beat tOSU or Mich w Harbaugh, or now the ducks? He can lose this game like always and pen st still be a playoff team!! Osu can’t afford to take a 2nd loss and put themselves at mercy of ppl in a room. How they played vs corn last week really isn’t important to me, they just came off a Game they shoulda won in Oregon where they never been and nobody wins! Corn just came off looking like bitches vs Indy, that a Game osu just needed to win, how it looked I don’t think will look anything like this week. Maybe I’m making a mistake going about it this way but I see more nfl In the college results this year and then we add in tOSU always beats peanut head!! I only got to lay a fg and for some reason more ppl taking pen st in this gene than I ever remember!! Call me crazy, like always if I lose that means some my fav guys win so not all bad but I gotta take the Ohio st and just like with byu last week I can live with losing it, I can’t live with not playing it! Gl buddy
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I agree with what you say about the motivations Bank. No doubt it's more of an elimination game for OSU and they have to win it. For example, there's no way I would lay points with Penn State here. I do think though that motivations and "we're ok even if we lose" thoughts go out the window when they see those uniforms and there's 111,000 people in the stands and millions watching on TV. This one for me is that I am relatively sure it's a game that comes down to the wire, so I think the points are valuable. Wanted the 4 or 3.5 but by the time I wrote it up had to settle for the 3.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I agree with what you say about the motivations Bank. No doubt it's more of an elimination game for OSU and they have to win it. For example, there's no way I would lay points with Penn State here. I do think though that motivations and "we're ok even if we lose" thoughts go out the window when they see those uniforms and there's 111,000 people in the stands and millions watching on TV. This one for me is that I am relatively sure it's a game that comes down to the wire, so I think the points are valuable. Wanted the 4 or 3.5 but by the time I wrote it up had to settle for the 3.
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Yea there a very good chance I eat the juice instead of lay the 3. I havnt really decided yet was hoping the price on ml come down as I’d assume lot of ppl will take the dog ml instead the points. Right now I’m seeing around -150, I’m not the biggest fan of paying b juice but that feels pretty cheap! Maybe we can both cash! Either way gl brotha
 
7. Texas Tech +14(-115) @Iowa State(BR) : Since it wasn't terrible to buy this to 14, I went ahead and did it. Iowa State had 2 weeks to get themselves together after getting gashed by UCF for 9 yards per carry and for good reason, because they had no answer for the UCF running game in that one. The Cyclones fell to 114th in yards per carry allowed as a result of that one, but they certainly weren't great against the run even before that. They have been elite in stopping the pass this year,(#2) but when you take a look at who they've played(Arky St, Iowa, Houston, WV, Baylor, UCF with Brown) you can see that schedule had a lot to do with it. Texas Tech comes in as a team that wants to run it with Tajh Brooks and I think they'll be able to. In addition, this Texas Tech pass offense is probably easily the best one Iowa State has faced, and the Cyclones have been awful at getting any kind of pressure on the QB. Tech's offensive line is solid, so I think Behren Morton (cleared of his injury)will have plenty of time to do what he wants to. Iowa State's offense is very versatile and they'll definitely give the Red Raiders problems on that side of the ball, especially if they don't hold contain on Rocco Becht, but there's going to be ample back door opportunities for the Raiders even if Iowa State is rolling offensively. I have a Big 12 ticket on Iowa State at a pretty good number, but I don't think they're going undefeated. Maybe they got their wake up call last time out, but I think they're a bit vulnerable.

Outright win for the Red Raiders! Rocking chair on the spread. Morton wasn't great, but they didn't need him to because they ran it well and played good enough defense and made Iowa State kick field goals.
 
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2daBank said:
Yea there a very good chance I eat the juice instead of lay the 3. I havnt really decided yet was hoping the price on ml come down as I’d assume lot of ppl will take the dog ml instead the points. Right now I’m seeing around -150, I’m not the biggest fan of paying b juice but that feels pretty cheap! Maybe we can both cash! Either way gl brotha
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Based on Franklin's results in spots like this, -150 or less doesn't seem too expensive to bet on him to lose.
 
8. Florida +14.5 v Georgia(BOL) : DISCLAIMER: I have been wrong on Florida games all year. Up until now, however, I've been mostly fading them, so there's that at least. It's really hard to ignore just how well Florida has been playing over the past month or so, especially defensively. DC Austin Armstrong has always been well regarded, but things hadn't come together for him at Florida. Now it appears it has. In the month of October, Florida's defense ranks 7th in the country in yards per play allowed, and in their games against UCF, Tennessee(in Knoxville) and Kentucky, they held those three to almost 2 yards per play below their averages coming in to the game. They probably should have won all three of those games including the Tennessee game in which they had Tennessee's offense shut out deep into the 3rd quarter in a madhouse in Knoxville. Offensively, DJ Lagway has been erratic, but he's been Jalen Milroe-like on deep balls, and he's gotten comfortable with Elijah Badger downfield. Unfortunately, it looks like Eugene Wilson might be out, so one of his downfield targets won't be available, but he's been finding guys downfield. They've also run the ball well lately, so they have some balance to throw at the Dawgs. Georgia looked like themselves for the most part in that great performance at Texas, but there's still a lot to be concerned about for Georgia. They're just ok against the pass and in getting pressure on the QB. Offensively, they only managed 283 yards against Texas and their running game has been kind of stuck in mud all year, ranking only 76th in yards per carry. Carson beck has also been very shaky, and If I was on Florida's defensive staff, I'd be imploring my DBs to catch the ball when he invariably throws you one. There's a chance Smart has these guys buzzing and they come out and make Florida look like they looked in September, but I think the improvement for the Gators looks pretty legit, so I'm willing to bet they keep this within two TDs.

Kudos to Florida who managed this cover despite being without their top WR, their top corner and having to turn to a third string QB who was wearing bicycle shorts and panty hose out there. Could not have been a reassuring sight for his teammates when he came prancing off the sideline.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
7. Texas Tech +14(-115) @Iowa State(BR) : Since it wasn't terrible to buy this to 14, I went ahead and did it. Iowa State had 2 weeks to get themselves together after getting gashed by UCF for 9 yards per carry and for good reason, because they had no answer for the UCF running game in that one. The Cyclones fell to 114th in yards per carry allowed as a result of that one, but they certainly weren't great against the run even before that. They have been elite in stopping the pass this year,(#2) but when you take a look at who they've played(Arky St, Iowa, Houston, WV, Baylor, UCF with Brown) you can see that schedule had a lot to do with it. Texas Tech comes in as a team that wants to run it with Tajh Brooks and I think they'll be able to. In addition, this Texas Tech pass offense is probably easily the best one Iowa State has faced, and the Cyclones have been awful at getting any kind of pressure on the QB. Tech's offensive line is solid, so I think Behren Morton (cleared of his injury)will have plenty of time to do what he wants to. Iowa State's offense is very versatile and they'll definitely give the Red Raiders problems on that side of the ball, especially if they don't hold contain on Rocco Becht, but there's going to be ample back door opportunities for the Raiders even if Iowa State is rolling offensively. I have a Big 12 ticket on Iowa State at a pretty good number, but I don't think they're going undefeated. Maybe they got their wake up call last time out, but I think they're a bit vulnerable.
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The scheme isu runs on d just begs to be run on imo, I do think it might be more on tech passing game tho, after getting gashed like they did by ucf and Taj coming to town I’d expect clones are little overly aggressive with stopping the run. Taj prop is 119.5 which for him and considering the things you mentioned bout isu run d actually feels short, I’d imagine that a very popular over prop and i was a bit surprised it wasn’t higher. That alone had me tempted to play under but I think im much more confident playing Becht passing props and his 2 stud WRs cause I don’t think the red raiders can stop that passing offense that was also pretty embarrassed against ucf, honestly no clue how they managed to pull that game out cause they had no business winning! I think you on the right side w the points, that total feels kinda low to me, think kd have made it low 60s so 56.5 surprises me. Like both offenses to have success. Isu gonna have to choose and after getting just gashed by ucf I suspect they much more aggressive trying to slow down Taj which was will make their overrated pass d more vulnerable, isu rates incredibly well on pass d but they have faved a lot of weak passing offenses and being pretty confident they are gonna play the run like their hair on fire which should leave room
For the WRs to work the middle. Feels like a back and 4th game to me, 2 tds seams like a ton, Not sure if i want the points or to cherry pick some props here, becht for sure, think i like both red raiderrs WRs to smash their yardage totals. and man this over screaming at me, unless tech is too stubborn trying to run I think this a game played info the 30, im nowhere near 14 points so I prob should join you, 38-30 seems totally reasonable to me, this might be a same game parlay special!! There 3-4 props I like, the points and total all go pretty well together,,
 
9. Oregon -14.5 @Michigan (BOL) : The one thing Michigan has going against it is that they are a team not worthy of their reputation. This year at least. Despite the fact that they have an offense that doesn't typically crack 300 yards, and they have an offensive line that is significantly worse than what they've had the past 3 years, any team is going to come into the Big House and be excited to play. It's the biggest stage, and teams typically are give a great effort there. I don't think that will be any different for Oregon in this one. Michigan is feeling great about itself after the win against Michigan State last week, but there are holes in that box score, and continued injuries are putting them in a bad spot this week. Oregon's weakness on defense(if you can call it that) is their run defense. Even Purdue ran it pretty well against them 2 weeks ago and Illinois had all of their running backs average better than 4.5 yards per carry last week. But Oregon won't have much to worry about other than the run game this week, giving them the ability to crowd the box and dare Davis Warren to beat their secondary which he probably won't be able to do. On the other side of the ball, there will again be no Will Johnson for Michigan, so the rest of their secondary which has not been good and especially susceptible to pass interference and holding penalties will be left to deal with the Oregon receivers. Even with Johnson, Michigan's year long numbers on 3rd down haven't been good(79th)and I don't think they'll be able to get much pressure on Dylan Gabriel to keep the Ducks from converting. In order for the Wolverines to cover this, they are going to have to score TDs, and keep the turnovers down. I think that's going to be hard to pull off for them.

I didn't see the end of this one, but Dan Lanning is pretty cold blooded. Got a lucky break here because that late TD kept me from getting hooked. 470-270 yardage delta though, and both of Michigan's TDs were YOLO tosses into a crowd on 3rd a goal from distance.
 
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10. Wyoming +7.5 @New Mexico (BR) : Wyoming has been terrible this season, somewhat unexpectedly(many had the Cowboys picked around 4th in the Mountain West) but they are starting to get themselves together. Their only win this year is against Air Force, but after a horrendous start offensively, they've started to be more competitive on that side of the ball and should have beaten Utah State last week after finally breaking through offensively and piling up almost 500 yards. The move to Kaden Anderson at QB had something to do with that, as he played well after he came in and is averaging 8+ yards per attempt in his small sample size of playing time. The Cowboys are also going to get RB Harrison Waylee back, who ran for almost 1,000 yards last year but had knee surgery in August. He's playing the final 4 games because he can still keep his redshirt and come back next year. New Mexico has been good all year on offense, but their defense has been one of the worst if not the worst in FBS all year. Even if you look at their 3 wins, they've given up 40 to New Mexico State, 37 to Air Force(!!!) and 45 to Utah State. Devan Dampier is definitely a handful, but I don't think I can trust the Lobos to cover that number with that defense against a Wyoming team that;s starting to look how people thought they'd look pre season.

1180 total yards in this one. Wyoming's offense cannot be stopped!!!(by horrible defenses). Always remember: Don't lay points with teams that can't stop a nosebleed on defense.
 
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11. @Washington +2.5 v USC (BR) : I really can't figure out why USC would be a road favorite here. You can't base it on their road performances in the Big Ten, where they've lost outright in all three Big ten road games, all of which they were favored. Speaking of that, Lincoln Riley is famously 3-13 as a road favorite in his last 16 in the role, and 2-10 overall since he got to USC. Washington has been plagued by all of the little things, which I documented last week(Red zone 4th downs, turnovers, missed FGs, special teams, etc), but those issues have been almost exclusively on the road, and now they're facing a team that is just as good as they are at finding ways to fuck things up. Also, it's a good fundamental matchup for the Huskies. USC runs it pretty well on a per play basis, but they throw it more than 60% of the time which is 4th most in the country. Washington is very good against the pass, ranking 3rd in yards per attempt against. Washington is also very balanced on offense, able to run or throw it effectively, and we know the issues USC has had on defense. In my opinion, Washington is better than all three of the teams that have already beaten USC as home dogs, (Michigan, Minnesota, Maryland) so I'll definitely take my chances with the Huskies here.

If you bet against USC doing what is necessary to win on the road, you'll generally be in good shape.
 
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Last night and today every time I was lockingin my picks it seemed like in tandem with ya. Lets goooooooo
I didn't pull the trigger on UGA or UNC but had them circled as well
 
12. @Iowa -2.5 v Wisconsin (BOL) : If Luke Fickell walks into Iowa City and pulls this off I'll tip my cap. Wisconsin was completely flummoxed by Iowa and their staff last year when Iowa couldn't even dream of completing a forward pass. Now they have to travel to Iowa Cit of a tough loss and deal with an Iowa running game that I don't think they can stop. Wisconsin is 85th against the run, and especially against mobile QBs, which they now have to deal with in Brendan Sullivan. Kaleb Johnson is easily the best running back they've had to deal with (he's already got 1100 yards and 16 TDs)and Braedyn Locke is not the kind of QB you would expect to stand up to the Iowa defense(even if it's a little less fearsome than usual) and revved up Iowa City nighttime crowd. Iowa already has 3 losses, so this is one they need to have(and I need for my Iowa win total) in order for this to be considered a good season. I expect the good fortune that usually befalls Iowa to befall them here, so I have no issue laying the small number.

Iowa just ran all over Wisconsin, which I found to be predictable. Also, Locke was not good. Good fortune befell Iowa, because Iowa made it.
 
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13. @South Carolina +3.5(-120) v Texas A&M (BR): 3.5 is pretty much available everywhere at -120, so I took it. I don't like this spot for A&M. They are coming off a huge emotional victory against LSU in a game that turned on a dime when Nussmeier just completely melted down. At that point in the third quarter, A&M was down 17-7 and getting thoroughly beaten until they made the move to Marcel Reed, which completely flummoxed the LSU defense. I don't think the A&M offense will flummox this South Carolina defense regardless who is in there at QB, because they are elite on the defensive line as well as in the secondary. Their issue is offensively, but with a week to get healthy, I think LaNorris Sellers and Rocket Sanders have a good chance to put up the offense necessary to get the win in this one. A&M is now entrenched as a playoff favorite, and with that brings anxiety. This is going to be a really tough environment, and I don't think they have the offense to overcome such a bad spot and a tough hungry opponent.

A&M's second half this week was the complete opposite of last week's. South Carolina's defense showed up in the second half. Also, 530 yards for the Gamecocks! A&M did not have it.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
Last week was much better. 9-4 for the week, which brings the season total back to as good as a coin flip (66-66-2), although you're hemorrhaging money if you're paying juice north of -110 like I've been. Looking to get on a roll, but these lines are getting tighter and tighter just like they do every year at this time. Not a huge amount of marquee games(and nothing late night at all???) but there's slew of interesting ones. Also quite a few games that hinge on injuries that we'll have to keep an eye on.

1, @Army -21.5 v Air Force: The fall from grace for this Air Force team has really been a head scratcher, but it is very real. Consider: Since starting last season with a 8-0 record, from the time they teed it up with Army in week 9, they have gone 0-10 straight up in their regular season games against FBS opponents. The slide began when they were 17 point home favorites against this Army team and got humiliated 23-3. This year, the results have been horrifying. The only win is against an FCS Merrimack team that UConn had a 56-0 halftime lead against the following week. the offense has been an abomination, topping 300 yards only against Wyoming and the worst defense in FBS in New Mexico(who beat them by 15 points). Enter Army, a team better than the team that handled a better Air Force team last year. The gulf between each team's performances on both sides of the ball is extreme, and we're talking about pretty comparable schedules. Air Force's defense is almost as bad as their offense, and Bryson Daily should be able to run wild with that power running scheme Army's been running. Service academies typically know how to defend each other, but Army is running something different than the option. Also, even if they did employ a true option, Air Force can't stop that either, which was indicated by the box score of the Navy game a couple weeks ago. If Army is motivated, they should be able to get margin here without any trouble. Air Force can't stop the run and they can't move the ball enough to scare anyone into thinking they can keep up on the scoreboard.

***Late edit. I see this line is rising, and it looks like it's going to continue to go up. I would not go as high as 23.5 or anything approaching 24. My reasoning is a couple posts below.
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1852554011611738572
 
Br@ssknux said:
5. Tulsa +2.5 @UAB (BOL) : I know Tulsa is no great shakes, but I'm surprised UAB is favored against just about anyone at this point. Tulsa ruined me last week with a miraculous comeback at home against UTSA when they were down 35-7 at half. Kevin Wilson made the move to former Utah State QB Cooper Legas in the second quarter, and it paid off as Legas threw for 330 yards and 5 TDs without an INT to lead the comeback. Legas had several good games including a couple huge comebacks for Utah State when he played there, so this was not unprecedented. He'll be the starter this week in Birmingham and he'll get to feast on what has been an awful UAB defense. The Blazers rank 119th in yards per play against, 126th against the run and 116th against the pass on a per attempt basis. Tulsa's D isn't great but they are competitive against the run, and UAB will again be without Jared Zeno at QB, who makes them occasionally competent on the offensive end running Trent Dilfer's squirt gun dump off offense. Without him they've been using Jalen Kitna, who was exiled from Florida for some sort of deviant behavior. He's represented a drop off from Zeno has he's tossed 6 INTs and completed only 57% of his passes. The Blazers are 1-6 and are probably seeing the writing on the wall for Dilfer, so I don't suspect we'll et an inspired performance. On the contrary, Tulsa is 3-5 and doesn't have anyone overly concerning left on their schedule, so I'm sure they'll be gunning for a bowl berth and will be properly motivated. As bad as Tulsa has been, they once again find themselves in their sweet spot as a road dog, and they definitely do well in that scenario. (12-5 as a road dog)
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That was unreal, almost unbelievable.
 
Br@ssknux said:
13. @South Carolina +3.5(-120) v Texas A&M (BR): 3.5 is pretty much available everywhere at -120, so I took it. I don't like this spot for A&M. They are coming off a huge emotional victory against LSU in a game that turned on a dime when Nussmeier just completely melted down. At that point in the third quarter, A&M was down 17-7 and getting thoroughly beaten until they made the move to Marcel Reed, which completely flummoxed the LSU defense. I don't think the A&M offense will flummox this South Carolina defense regardless who is in there at QB, because they are elite on the defensive line as well as in the secondary. Their issue is offensively, but with a week to get healthy, I think LaNorris Sellers and Rocket Sanders have a good chance to put up the offense necessary to get the win in this one. A&M is now entrenched as a playoff favorite, and with that brings anxiety. This is going to be a really tough environment, and I don't think they have the offense to overcome such a bad spot and a tough hungry opponent.
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This exactly the kind of bet I think looks more like the nfl than ncaa did before the 12 team playoff. Know what I’m saying?
 
Thanks Bones, I was out and just heard about Daily. Absolutely will not lay this number without him, he makes a major difference.
 
14. @Clemson -10 v Louisville: Deciding late on this one. Louisville strikes me as a team this year that finds ways to not succeed. They have good players, they have a good scheme, but they go for it on 4th down in tough spots and Brohm forgets what he's doing with his play calls, they turn the ball over, etc. Clemson has run roughshod over everyone since their opening loss to Georgia, but admittedly it's against about the weakest lineup of ACC teams you could conjure up. But even with that being the case, they haven't really been challenged, and I think the nighttime crowd will be ready for this game, and so will the players. Klubnik has looked much better, but the main reason I like Clemson here is that I don't think Louisville will be able to stop Phil Mafah, and I don't like Louisville's chances to stop Clemson at all. They rank 98th in yards per pass attempt against, they rank 62nd against the run and they can't pressure the QB. Klubnik should have time to throw and should be able to be at his best. As for the Clemson defense, they've given up some yards, but almost all of them seem to be in garbage time. They've been good on 3rd down, and they've played good enough defense to allow their offense to be comfortably ahead in every game. This is more of a feel, but I have a feeling we aren't going to see a good performance out of Louisville tonight.

We did see a good performance from Louisville tonight. Clemson had strange game. They held on to the ball, converting 5 4th downs, but they took so long they limited the number of possessions they had, and they missed 2 FGs to boot. Louisville had 6.2 yards per play to Clemson's 4.45. Klubnik was dink and dunked Clemson right out of the game.
 
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Any chance Tulsa can come up with a comeback for the ages when I'm on them rather than against them?
 
Br@ssknux said:
14. @Clemson -10 v Louisville: Deciding late on this one. Louisville strikes me as a team this year that finds ways to not succeed. They have good players, they have a good scheme, but they go for it on 4th down in tough spots and Brohm forgets what he's doing with his play calls, they turn the ball over, etc. Clemson has run roughshod over everyone since their opening loss to Georgia, but admittedly it's against about the weakest lineup of ACC teams you could conjure up. But even with that being the case, they haven't really been challenged, and I think the nighttime crowd will be ready for this game, and so will the players. Klubnik has looked much better, but the main reason I like Clemson here is that I don't think Louisville will be able to stop Phil Mafah, and I don't like Louisville's chances to stop Clemson at all. They rank 98th in yards per pass attempt against, they rank 62nd against the run and they can't pressure the QB. Klubnik should have time to throw and should be able to be at his best. As for the Clemson defense, they've given up some yards, but almost all of them seem to be in garbage time. They've been good on 3rd down, and they've played good enough defense to allow their offense to be comfortably ahead in every game. This is more of a feel, but I have a feeling we aren't going to see a good performance out of Louisville tonight.
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I just hope ville can score enough to push klubnick as I’m on his over 283.5 pass yards. Usually my only concern with him is whether or not he has to throw in 4th. He a poster child for what staying in school and learning how to play qb should look like. He still has those moments where he doesn’t position himself well and misses an open guy but he has gotten better and better imo. I’ve thought ville was overrated the entire year, don’t really expect this to be super close unless ville hit some big plays as I don’t think they driving the ball on tigers d. Gl buddy
 
2daBank said:
I just hope ville can score enough to push klubnick as I’m on his over 283.5 pass yards. Usually my only concern with him is whether or not he has to throw in 4th. He a poster child for what staying in school and learning how to play qb should look like. He still has those moments where he doesn’t position himself well and misses an open guy but he has gotten better and better imo. I’ve thought ville was overrated the entire year, don’t really expect this to be super close unless ville hit some big plays as I don’t think they driving the ball on tigers d. Gl buddy
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Someone was overrated Bank, but it wasn't Louisville.
 
B.A.R. said:
What a weird game.

I've watched UL, their defense is not good.

How did Clemson struggle so much is wild to me.
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Yep. I was worried that Clemson had played absolutely nobody while Louisville was used to playing teams of a caliber in the neighborhood of Clemson. We've seen teams struggle once they've stepped up in class a few times this year, and that was definitely the case in this game.

I didn't watch a ton of this but I'll have to check the play by play because the box score is very weird. It's so strange I have to assume the source I'm using can't be correct, so I'll have to do more research before I say anything that will turn out to be wrong.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Yep. I was worried that Clemson had played absolutely nobody while Louisville was used to playing teams of a caliber in the neighborhood of Clemson. We've seen teams struggle once they've stepped up in class a few times this year, and that was definitely the case in this game.

I didn't watch a ton of this but I'll have to check the play by play because the box score is very weird. It's so strange I have to assume the source I'm using can't be correct, so I'll have to do more research before I say anything that will turn out to be wrong.
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Clemson had 7 points with 6-7 mins left fwiw.

That late flurry of 21 points luckily got my o52 from a 3 teamer to cash.

Dabo also kicked an XP at a very wrong time.

Lastly, Louisville at one point kicked 3 or 4 FGs in a row
 
RE: Clemson Box score. It was right. Clemson did the following: Outgained Louisville by almost 100 yards. Didn't turn the ball over. Went 11/23 on 3rd down and 5/6 on 4th. Had fewer penalties. Won TOP by more than 15 minutes. Here's the problem. They ran 101 plays and managed only 4.45 yards per. So they converted a ton of series of downs, but it took all day. Then they missed 2 FGs and scored 3 TDs. Louisville only got to third down 12 times, but converted FGs on 4 of the ones they didn't convert a first down and had a bunch of big plays to get them in scoring position. Yards per play were 6.20 to 4.45 Louisville.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Someone was overrated Bank, but it wasn't Louisville.
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I’ve watched enough of ville to know they not that good! I didn’t catch enough the game while I was in Illinios live betting ckemson +600 to +750 thinking I’ve seen this book with ville many time where they get a lead then can’t hold it. What I did watch was most the last qrtr and besides klubnick missing wide open guys left and right I found it puzzling Dabo was content helping ville run out the clock, no urgency at all. Made no sense.
 
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