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Week 10 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Well, it's week 10 already. Hard to believe. The writeups went 10-7 last week, and those 7 losses were EARNED. Other than maybe a couple, those games were mostly over at jump street, which I must say is probably preferable. The year long record moves to 67-52 with some pushes (.5630). We're one bad week away from being in break even territory, so let's not have a bad week. One thing I'm trying to do to avoid that is trust myself first and foremost so that if I have a bad week, I can 100% pin it on myself. I think we all catch ourselves listening to someone else give support for a side, realize we were considering that side and then go all in, forgetting that the reasons the side was only a consideration and not a yet play were very sound. I figure that I am probably way below .500 in situations like that recently, so I'm going to try to avoid it. We'll see how that goes.

Nebraska -3 LOSS
Kansas State +4 WIN
Wisconsin -9.5 LOSS
Arizona State +11 LOSS
La-Lafayette -7 LOSS
FAU pk LOSS
Oklahoma State +6 WIN
Houston +3 WIN
Utah State -2 WIN
USC +3 LOSS
Alabama -3 WIN
Stanford +13.5 WIN
UCLA -2.5 LOSS

6-7

1. Nebraska -3 @Michigan State: At this point it looks like Michigan State just needs to get this season over with, hire whoever they are going to hire, have the transfer portal work itself out and move on with life. Their performance last week against a Minnesota team that hasn't looked good all year was terrible, especially in the second half when Minnesota completely dominated, evidence of both a coaching staff being overmatched and a bunch of players who are losing hope. I've not been impressed with Nebraska, quite the opposite, but they are in a complete opposite situation right now. They are seeing progress, fleeting as it is in year 1 of a new regime, and the buy in appears to be solidifying for Matt Rhule. I would think that the kind of effort necessary to lose this game is something that teams like Nebraska in this current environment rarely put forth. They've built an identity on defense. The schedule strength has been questionable, but virtually nobody has been able to run at all on them, and on paper, they have huge advantages at every level of this MSU offense v Nebraska defense matchup. Spartan QB Katin Houser has been bad. Actually, that's an understatement. Per PFF he ranks dead last, 166 out of 166 qualifying quarterbacks in overall grade and passing grade. He's made one big time throw vs 8 turnover worthy plays. In short, if MSU will have any success in this game, it will have to be on the ground, and that's not happening. Nebraska has given up 100 yards rushing in a game only once this year(Michigan) and they rank 5th in yards per attempt against while MSU is 112th in yards per carry on offense. It might be ugly, but One team is on the upswing, and the other is not.

Surprisingly, Michigan State showed as much fight as Nebraska did. Michigan State had way more success than I expected and they still only ended up with 295 yards. At the end of the day, it's probably never a good idea to lay points on the road with a team unlikely to crack 300 yards(which Nebraska predictably didn't), regardless of how much of a corpse they're playing.
 
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2. Kansas State +4 @Texas: Earlier in the season I wouldn't have thought that getting only 4 with K State at Texas would be value, but here we are. K State has been on a roll lately, especially since they went to the 2 QB rotation adding Avery Johnson in there as a running option, not that Will Howard can't run also. The Giddens/Ward combo at running back has also settled in to the point that they look similar to last year from back there even without Deuce Vaughn. The reason I like the Wildcats in this spot however has more to do with the Texas offense than K State's offense. I almost played Texas last week as a major fade of BYU, but I stayed off it because I wanted to see what Maalik Murphy looked like in relief of Quinn Ewers. The Longhorns covered anyway, but Murphy didn't look good, and it didn't seem like Sark had much interest in throwing the ball downfield at all. Xavier Worthy for example got all of his receiving yards after the catch, and Texas looked like they were playing quite a bit of "Offense in a phone booth". If there isn't much of a passing threat, K State will be able to jam the box and keep Jonathan Brooks, et al in check, and K State struggles to stop the run when the pass game offers a threat. Also, even before Murphy, Texas hasn't been great on 3rd down, and K State thrives on 3rd down and in the red zone, so I have a feeling Texas is going to need Murphy to come through in those clutch situations, and I don't know that he's up to it. Not having Ewers levels the playing field a bit, and when the talent is closer, I like Kleiman and his staff against Sark. I think K State has a great shot of winning this game, and I think the way this spread has materialized is evidence of it. `


Got a bit fortunate with turnovers on this one, but we didn't trust Murphy, so that ended up playing out. Thanks to Klieman for going for the win on 4th down to guarantee me a cover.
 
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Well, Arkansas was gonna be a play for me but it's gone from the 6 range all the way down to 3.5 as I write this. Pittman is a covering machine on the SEC road, but he seldom wins, so I can't make a case for a team having to lose by a FG or less. We'll see if that line goes back up, but if not, it has bitten the dust for me.
 
I do my best to not even listen to the podcast I like/respect or read the guys here till after I’ve done my own work cause I hate letting myself get influenced. I have no problem when you, them, someone else I respect point out a game they like and bring some things to my attention I havnt thought of, then I’ll go back and see what I think of it with those other things in mind., sometimes that leads me to adding a play, sometimes not. But I much prefer to have done all my own work before hand so I’m not subconsciously getting influenced before going over the card my way 1st.
 
3. Wisconsin -9.5 @Indiana: To simplify, this is the kind of game Wisconsin generally covers and Indiana under Tom Ace does not. I think you're getting Wisconsin at less than double digits here because Indiana looked surprisingly good last week, having caught a pedestrian Penn State offense in a sleepy spot, and getting lucky with some deep shots to keep them in the game. Make no mistake, Indiana definitely deserved to cover that game because they physically matched Penn State for large portions of it, but that sets them up for the inevitable failure when they try to come up with another high level performance. I'm sure this number also has something to do with Wisconsin's injury situation, and both Braelon Allen and Chimre Dike appear to be either out or game time decisions at best. Regardless of who plays running back, the Badgers should be able to run on Indiana's 102nd ranked run defense, and if the IU offense reverts back to the norm, Wisconsin has major advantages on that side of the ball. We also often see players pick things up when teammates are out, so I expect a good effort from the Badgers here.

Laying points with a bad offense on the road again, but honestly, I didn't think IU would have the success it did on offense even though it was only 266 yards. When you lose outright with a 9.5 favorite it's a bad call, period.
 
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4. Arizona State +11 @Utah: In the Sun Devils last 4 games, at Cal, home against Colorado, at Washington and home against Washington State, they've outgained all 4 of them and done so decisively(by 90 yards per game). Unfortunately for them, they've lost close ones in 3 of those 4, but finally got a taste of victory last week at home against the Cougars as a 6 point home dog. Now they travel to Salt Lake City, possibly the toughest venue in the Pac 12, but the foe is not as tough as usual due to the ineptness of it's offense. Also, the Sun Devils just 2 weeks ago went up to Seattle and outplayed the Huskies and their nuclear offense, so they might be in a mental state to not be intimidated by the Utes. Utah is coming off a terrible performance at home and will be looking to make amends, but they have a trip to Washington on deck themselves, and I'm sure they were trying their best to move the ball effectively in all their other home games against good defenses, which Arizona State certainly qualifies as. The Sun Devils don't have any glaring weaknesses on that side of the ball and have major edges on paper in basically every category on that side of the ball. The same is true for Utah's defense against the ASU offense, but we have seen improvement from the Sun Devils offense, while Utah has proven they can't move the ball on good defenses. The other defenses Utah has played at home that are in the same area code as ASU(and I would rate ASU's D higher than a couple of them. Here's the yardage total for the Utes in those games: Florida-270. UCLA-219. Oregon-241. Tis leads me to believe that Utah will probably settle in at about 260 yards or so in this game, especially since Sione Vaki has been on tape enough for team to know what to expect from him. You wouldn't think 11 would be enough to take the Sun Devils in this spot a few weeks ago, but I think it's plenty now.

These two teams morphed into something neither one has been in at least 2 months. ASU QB got hurt(I guess?) and it was downhill from there. 513-83 total yards? Really? Made worse by having to watch the team I passed on(Georgia Tech) cover easily at the same time.
 
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5. Louisiana Lafayette -7 @Arkansas State: I've been on Jaylen Raynor 3 times in the past several weeks, and I'm sure he'll be able to get some things done against this shaky Cajun pass defense, but Arky state is going to have a hell of a time trying to stop this La La offense. The Cajuns are 19th overall in yards per play and 8th in yards per rush while the Red Wolves can't stop a nosebleed on defense, especially on the ground, ranking 122nd in yards per play against and 115th against the run. Cajun QB Zeon Chriss got off to a terrible start throwing the ball this year, ranking near the bottom in turnover worthy plays and overall passing grade on PFF, but he's been much better lately, especially last week where he was a very efficient 13-17 for 145 yards with 2 TDs and no picks against an above average South Alabama defense on the road. He's always been a major running threat, and now he's figuring it out through the air, and that spells bad news for the Red Wolves defense. The Cajuns also get after the QB pretty well so Raynor will be under duress quite a bit, which has significantly hindered his effectiveness in games against Troy and Coastal, who are more in La La's class in the Sun Belt. We'll probably see some points in this one, but I think there's little chance Arky State will be able to slow down the Cajuns enough to stay within shouting distance in this one.

The #115 rush defense held the #8 rush offense to 64 yards on 27 carries. That's about all you need to know about what happened with this play.
 
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6. FAU pk @UAB: I definitely misread the Owls a couple weeks ago when they hosted UTSA, but I think a pattern is starting to emerge with them as a road team. They've had some bad performances at home, but in their last 3 road games, they've looked like the team many thought they would at the beginning of the year. In the last 2, they've dominated USF and Charlotte fellow teams in first seasons of a new regime, and they face another one here. FAU has struggled at times on offense despite having a couple of high level talents in RB Larry MCCarron and WR LaJohntay Wester, but those guys as well as the rest of the Owl offense shouldn't find the terrain too treacherous against this UAB defense who ranks low in virtually every category and compares unfavorably even to the Charlotte and USF defenses that FAU has recently torched McCarron and QB Daniel Richardson should both be able to get the ground game going against the 130th ranked run defense, and there's been no indication as to who will be starting at QB for the Blazers after Jared Zeno was a late scratch last week. UAB has a knack for producing competent looking box scores, but like last week, thy result in 20+ point losses. I think FAU is in their comfort zone on the road(which is not surprising under Herman), and now, all we need is for UAB to find a way to lose to cash this ticket. They've proven they can do that, and I like my chances as long as the Owls are the road show.
 
Not the biggest fan of laying in the range of 6-7 points, usually try to ML those with a tag team partner but I don't see how Ark St keeps that game close unless La La just turn the ball over several times. Might feel comfy actually laying it there. UAB for me was in the Kent St level coming into the season and I got burnt a couple times by them but FAU to simply win the game seems smart as well.

GL this weekend!
 
Br@ssknux said:
Well, it's week 10 already. Hard to believe. The writeups went 10-7 last week, and those 7 losses were EARNED. Other than maybe a couple, those games were mostly over at jump street, which I must say is probably preferable. The year long record moves to 67-52 with some pushes (.5630). We're one bad week away from being in break even territory, so let's not have a bad week. One thing I'm trying to do to avoid that is trust myself first and foremost so that if I have a bad week, I can 100% pin it on myself. I think we all catch ourselves listening to someone else give support for a side, realize we were considering that side and then go all in, forgetting that the reasons the side was only a consideration and not a yet play were very sound. I figure that I am probably way below .500 in situations like that recently, so I'm going to try to avoid it. We'll see how that goes.


1. Nebraska -3 @Michigan State: At this point it looks like Michigan State just needs to get this season over with, hire whoever they are going to hire, have the transfer portal work itself out and move on with life. Their performance last week against a Minnesota team that hasn't looked good all year was terrible, especially in the second half when Minnesota completely dominated, evidence of both a coaching staff being overmatched and a bunch of players who are losing hope. I've not been impressed with Nebraska, quite the opposite, but they are in a complete opposite situation right now. They are seeing progress, fleeting as it is in year 1 of a new regime, and the buy in appears to be solidifying for Matt Rhule. I would think that the kind of effort necessary to lose this game is something that teams like Nebraska in this current environment rarely put forth. They've built an identity on defense. The schedule strength has been questionable, but virtually nobody has been able to run at all on them, and on paper, they have huge advantages at every level of this MSU offense v Nebraska defense matchup. Spartan QB Katin Houser has been bad. Actually, that's an understatement. Per PFF he ranks dead last, 166 out of 166 qualifying quarterbacks in overall grade and passing grade. He's made one big time throw vs 8 turnover worthy plays. In short, if MSU will have any success in this game, it will have to be on the ground, and that's not happening. Nebraska has given up 100 yards rushing in a game only once this year(Michigan) and they rank 5th in yards per attempt against while MSU is 112th in yards per carry on offense. It might be ugly, but One team is on the upswing, and the other is not.
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Spot on here.

I don't know if they cover a spread the rest of the year.

Great info and likely joining.
 
Br@ssknux said:
4. Arizona State +11 @Utah: In the Sun Devils last 4 games, at Cal, home against Colorado, at Washington and home against Washington State, they've outgained all 4 of them and done so decisively(by 90 yards per game). Unfortunately for them, they've lost close ones in 3 of those 4, but finally got a taste of victory last week at home against the Cougars as a 6 point home dog. Now they travel to Salt Lake City, possibly the toughest venue in the Pac 12, but the foe is not as tough as usual due to the ineptness of it's offense. Also, the Sun Devils just 2 weeks ago went up to Seattle and outplayed the Huskies and their nuclear offense, so they might be in a mental state to not be intimidated by the Utes. Utah is coming off a terrible performance at home and will be looking to make amends, but they have a trip to Washington on deck themselves, and I'm sure they were trying their best to move the ball effectively in all their other home games against good defenses, which Arizona State certainly qualifies as. The Sun Devils don't have any glaring weaknesses on that side of the ball and have major edges on paper in basically every category on that side of the ball. The same is true for Utah's defense against the ASU offense, but we have seen improvement from the Sun Devils offense, while Utah has proven they can't move the ball on good defenses. The other defenses Utah has played at home that are in the same area code as ASU(and I would rate ASU's D higher than a couple of them. Here's the yardage total for the Utes in those games: Florida-270. UCLA-219. Oregon-241. Tis leads me to believe that Utah will probably settle in at about 260 yards or so in this game, especially since Sione Vaki has been on tape enough for team to know what to expect from him. You wouldn't think 11 would be enough to take the Sun Devils in this spot a few weeks ago, but I think it's plenty now.
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Terrific situational spot here.

The big win at USC
Blown out at home vs Oregon
Washington on deck.

Now, they could view this as their last resort to not having a long losing streak.

We'll see.

As you said, ASU has been wildly competitive.
 
Br@ssknux said:
4. Arizona State +11 @Utah: In the Sun Devils last 4 games, at Cal, home against Colorado, at Washington and home against Washington State, they've outgained all 4 of them and done so decisively(by 90 yards per game). Unfortunately for them, they've lost close ones in 3 of those 4, but finally got a taste of victory last week at home against the Cougars as a 6 point home dog. Now they travel to Salt Lake City, possibly the toughest venue in the Pac 12, but the foe is not as tough as usual due to the ineptness of it's offense. Also, the Sun Devils just 2 weeks ago went up to Seattle and outplayed the Huskies and their nuclear offense, so they might be in a mental state to not be intimidated by the Utes. Utah is coming off a terrible performance at home and will be looking to make amends, but they have a trip to Washington on deck themselves, and I'm sure they were trying their best to move the ball effectively in all their other home games against good defenses, which Arizona State certainly qualifies as. The Sun Devils don't have any glaring weaknesses on that side of the ball and have major edges on paper in basically every category on that side of the ball. The same is true for Utah's defense against the ASU offense, but we have seen improvement from the Sun Devils offense, while Utah has proven they can't move the ball on good defenses. The other defenses Utah has played at home that are in the same area code as ASU(and I would rate ASU's D higher than a couple of them. Here's the yardage total for the Utes in those games: Florida-270. UCLA-219. Oregon-241. Tis leads me to believe that Utah will probably settle in at about 260 yards or so in this game, especially since Sione Vaki has been on tape enough for team to know what to expect from him. You wouldn't think 11 would be enough to take the Sun Devils in this spot a few weeks ago, but I think it's plenty now.
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Little concerned about the 11am body clock start for ASU but if anything that should lend to an under type game which obviously favors the Devils and the points. Perfect situational spot to fade the Utes.
 
7. @Oklahoma State +6 v Oklahoma: I hard to remember a team that's had a more dramatic turnaround than Oklahoma State since the calendar turned to October. Since then they've beaten Kansas State, Kansas, West Virginia and Cincinnati in succession, and their offense has morphed into the best rushing attack in the country (thanks to Ollie Gordon) and they rank 12th in total yards per play in October. If you looked strictly at the year long stats and ignored the real improvement OSU has shown, it would be logical to be on Oklahoma in this game. You could see an edge in a lot of categories in an objective review of their numbers, and you'd note the recent history, with OU having covered in 7 of the last 8 Bedlam matchups. But you need to look at what these teams have done recently to see the whole picture. We already know the improvement that OSU has seen, mostly due to Gordon's Barry Sanders impression over the past 4 games but what about what's happened to the Sooners. During that same month of October, OU lost their top receiver Andrel Anthony. As a result their yards per play has dropped from 20th to 56th, and their yards per pass attempt has gone down to 49th. Taylor Gabriel hasn't been throwing the ball downfield anywhere near as much and that's probably a symptom of the missing WR talent. OU hasn't run the ball well all year, but their best guy, Tawee Walker is going to a game time decision and is at least going to be hobbled. The Sooners worst injury however, is that of Danny Stutzman. He's trying to gut it out, but he has an ankle injury, which will at least slow him down. He means everything to that Sooner defense, and if they don't have him, the effect on the defense will be profound. We have to remember that in most games, Oklahoma has looked very ordinary, including the last 2 weeks. With all the motivation and the roll that the Cowboys are on, I think taking those points is going to be prudent.

This one worked out. Even game.
 
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8. Houston +3 @Baylor: As bad as Houston has been, there's no way I can pass up a chance to fade Baylor as a home favorite in this spot. The Bears have won 2 FBS games this year, both on the road. The first one I'm still trying to figure out and that was their miraculous comeback from 35-10 in the 4th quarter to UCF. The other was a 3 point win at Cincinnati, another team that does everything to keep itself from winning. In their home games, they were beaten by Texas State in the opener and then completely non-competitive on the scoreboard against Texas, Texas Tech and Iowa State. Again, Houston is no great shakes, but this will be a country club visit for the Cougars compared to what they've seen in the past couple weeks. Baylor can't stop anyone on defense, ranking 114th in yards per play, 117th against the run, 102nd against the pass and 119th on 3rd down. Houston QB Donavan Smith won't find much resistance, and he's actually got some pretty good numbers, especially with a 16/5 ratio and 65% completion rate. Baylor also can't run the ball, so Blake Shapen is very important to their success. If he gets hurt, they are screwed, and he's not that good anyway. It's a hold your nose game, but I like Smith's chances to put up some numbers in this one, and I expect Baylor's home woes to continue, especially against a state school that relishes beating you.

This was almost a horrific beat, but thankfully Houston was able to get in the end zone a couple times and then take care of business in OT
 
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Br@ssknux said:
7. @Oklahoma State +6 v Oklahoma: I hard to remember a team that's had a more dramatic turnaround than Oklahoma State since the calendar turned to October. Since then they've beaten Kansas State, Kansas, West Virginia and Cincinnati in succession, and their offense has morphed into the best rushing attack in the country (thanks to Ollie Gordon) and they rank 12th in total yards per play in October. If you looked strictly at the year long stats and ignored the real improvement OSU has shown, it would be logical to be on Oklahoma in this game. You could see an edge in a lot of categories in an objective review of their numbers, and you'd note the recent history, with OU having covered in 7 of the last 8 Bedlam matchups. But you need to look at what these teams have done recently to see the whole picture. We already know the improvement that OSU has seen, mostly due to Gordon's Barry Sanders impression over the past 4 games but what about what's happened to the Sooners. During that same month of October, OU lost their top receiver Andrel Anthony. As a result their yards per play has dropped from 20th to 56th, and their yards per pass attempt has gone down to 49th. Taylor Gabriel hasn't been throwing the ball downfield anywhere near as much and that's probably a symptom of the missing WR talent. OU hasn't run the ball well all year, but their best guy, Tawee Walker is going to a game time decision and is at least going to be hobbled. The Sooners worst injury however, is that of Danny Stutzman. He's trying to gut it out, but he has an ankle injury, which will at least slow him down. He means everything to that Sooner defense, and if they don't have him, the effect on the defense will be profound. We have to remember that in most games, Oklahoma has looked very ordinary, including the last 2 weeks. With all the motivation and the roll that the Cowboys are on, I think taking those points is going to be prudent.
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Think I leaned Sooners but I prefer your stance to mine here, I havnt had any clue what to think of okie lite all year, they looked awful early on and since the big12 packed with teams I don’t particularly like I have mostly not paid them any attention.. obviously not a good strategy when trtuhfvcn. I keep thinking nic anderson is gonna realize his potential and take Anthony place as the deepthreat. I think he could even be more talented but it appears he must not be ready to fill that roll. I’ll prob just stay off this game now but this still helped me immensely to walk away! Hopefully I’m doing the right thing and you cash this bitch!!
 
9. Utah State -2 @San Diego State: I know I shouldn't let one performance have such an impact on a play, especially when there's a bye week involved, but San Diego State's 6-0 loss to Nevada two weeks ago is one of the most remarkably bad performances I can ever remember a team having. Coming into that game, Nevada's defense was by almost every metric the worst in the country, near dead last in yards per play against, 3rd down conversions, yards per rush against, yards per pass attempt, you name it. San Diego State then proceeded to get shut out at home against that defense, gaining 204 total yards in the game, including 47 total passing yards. It was a tour de force of futility. Having said all that, their overall numbers on both sides of the ball are putrid as well. They're outside the top 100 in yards per play on offense, they can't run the ball(107th) and they can't convert 3rd downs. Defensively, they are the worst run defense in the country per PFF, they rank 121st in yards per play, 116th against the run and 110th against the pass. Even in their wins, they've been lucky, managing to win on the island against Hawaii despite being outgained by 102 yards. Utah State is not a juggernaut, but they can move the ball, especially through the air with either of their QBs. They've also been great in the second halves of games, which indicates you're never out of a game when you're holding an Aggie ticket and that Blake Anderson has them coached up pretty well. A chance to lay only a couple points with a decent squad against a San Diego State team with this profile is too much to pass up.

Utah State played like shit from beginning to end, almost gave the game away late when their punter dropped the snap and handed it to SDSU in their own territory, and had to survive OT, but they managed it. Had they played even decently, they would have won that game by 14+
 
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2daBank said:
Think I leaned Sooners but I prefer your stance to mine here, I havnt had any clue what to think of okie lite all year, they looked awful early on and since the big12 packed with teams I don’t particularly like I have mostly not paid them any attention.. obviously not a good strategy when trtuhfvcn. I keep thinking nic anderson is gonna realize his potential and take Anthony place as the deepthreat. I think he could even be more talented but it appears he must not be ready to fill that roll. I’ll prob just stay off this game now but this still helped me immensely to walk away! Hopefully I’m doing the right thing and you cash this bitch!!
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I don't blame you Bank, and I think if Oklahoma had Anthony and Stutzman was healthy, I would probably be riding the Sooners as well. But Stutzman is such a big loss, even if he's only hobbled, I can't lay that much with them. OU's reluctance to throw downfield against a KU defense that really wasn't pressuring them spoke some volumes as well.
 
10. @USC +3 v Washington: I really hate to back Caleb Williams and this USC squad, but Washington is just begging to get beat, and I think this is finally the week. The Huskies have won all 5 of their Pac 12 games, but you can find some alarming things in all of those wins, especially the last 3. The Oregon win was a great one, they had lots of 4th down luck and got outgained by 100+ yards. Arizona State had them beat a number of times the week after that and outgained them, but they were saved by a very fortunate missed penalty that led to the winning pick 6 on the next play. Last but not least, STANFORD likely would have knocked them off if not for a dropped pass on 4th down that might have put the Cardinal in position to end the game. Defensively, Washington is having a hard time stopping anybody, as Stanford's 499 yard outburst last week suggests. Also, they haven't looked in rhythm offensively since the Oregon game, and that might have a lot to do with the loss of Jalen McMillan, their third head of their 3 headed monster at WR as well as their apparent abandonment of the run game. The past two weeks, they haven't been able to run at all, and they didn't even try two weeks ago against Arizona State. USC's defense is not good, but they are especially bad at stopping the run. If you give them a chance to rush the passer, they have some hope in the secondary. Also, I thought USC showed something last week coming back from 14 down in the 4th quarter against Cal. They easily could have given up, and they still have a path to the Pac 12 title game. Offensively, we know they are lethal, and Washington is especially susceptible on that side of the ball. Washington is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 tries as a road favorite, and DeBoer is only 2-5. This isn't the spot Washington wants to be in this week. The Pac 12 could really use Washington staying clean because if they make that title game undefeated, the winner(if it's 1 loss Oregon in the game with them) has a great shot of making the playoff. We all know how that works out historically for the Pac 12. I have a feeling USC, despite their warts, shakes things up.

Kudos to Washington. They earned that victory and took about as good a shot as USC can muster.
 
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11. @Alabama -3 v LSU: LSU has been a mess on defense all year whenever they've played an offense with a pulse, but they are REALLY a mess now. Their secondary is ravaged with injuries and now their best guy in the middle, Wingo, I believe is out for the year. They've also got a couple guys who are "unavailable", which could mean a lot f thing I guess, but suffice it to say, there's going to be a lot of 2nd/3rd string guys back there for LSU, and if there's one thing Jalen Milroe can do, it's throw the ball deep. One of the most remarkable stats I've seen this year is that Milroe has not thrown a turnover worthy pass in any attempt deeper than 20 yards all year. He hits a couple deep throws a game regardless of who he's playing, so LSU will definitely be at risk of that. LSU has been fantastic on offense, but Alabama is much more able to slow them down than anyone else the Tigers have played this year, at least since FSU in the opener. The Bama secondary has 3 or 4 guys that can make things tough on Malik Nabors (McKinstry, Malachi Moore, Arnold and Caleb Downs all have solid coverage grades) and the Tide ranks 1st in the country overall in coverage per PFF. Bama has them at home and is looking for payback for last year when LSU knocked them out of things I like my chances with the Tide here. It seems like any path to a win for LSU has to include hoping for Bama mistakes or turnovers on offense.

I'm thinking Bama covers this even if Daniels didn't get blasted in the jaw, but I'm glad I didn't have to find out.
 
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12. Stanford +13.5 @Washington State: After starting 4-0, the Cougs have it hard times, dropping the past 4 in a way that can't elicit any positive vibes. It started with a very misleading 25-17 loss to UCLA in which they were dominated and they haven't been the same since. Arizona embarrassed them on their home field the following week and then they lost back to back road games, culminating in getting run out of Tempe as a 6 point road favorite. In that game, Arizona State piled up 500+ yards, more than 160 yards above their season average. Both of these teams have been bad on defense, but Stanford has been improving, and they are coming off a game with Washington's offense, so Cam Ward won't seem like much of a big deal by comparison. Also, Stanford has been rolling on offense, and when they've played defenses of Wazzou's caliber, they've been able to move the ball at will, getting 523 yards in their comeback at Colorado and torching Washington for 500 last week. I don't know what Wazzou is going to do with Elic Ayomanor who just keeps piling up catches and yards in Troy Taylor's offense. Wazzou is dead last in rushing offense so Stanford knows they don't even try to run the ball, so they can scheme up a plan against Cam Ward. We also have a team on a free fall against a team gaining confidence in a new regime. I don't think Wazzou should be favored by this amount against anyone, so I'll gladly take the 13.5. Who would be surprised if Stanford wins this game? After what Arizona did to them in Pullman, anything is possible.

All aboard the Troy Taylor train! And off the Wazzou train. I didn't expect a 10-7 game, but Stanford proved again they can compete, and even beat the lesser lights of the PAC 12
 
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Br@ssknux said:
8. Houston +3 @Baylor: As bad as Houston has been, there's no way I can pass up a chance to fade Baylor as a home favorite in this spot. The Bears have won 2 FBS games this year, both on the road. The first one I'm still trying to figure out and that was their miraculous comeback from 35-10 in the 4th quarter to UCF. The other was a 3 point win at Cincinnati, another team that does everything to keep itself from winning. In their home games, they were beaten by Texas State in the opener and then completely non-competitive on the scoreboard against Texas, Texas Tech and Iowa State. Again, Houston is no great shakes, but this will be a country club visit for the Cougars compared to what they've seen in the past couple weeks. Baylor can't stop anyone on defense, ranking 114th in yards per play, 117th against the run, 102nd against the pass and 119th on 3rd down. Houston QB Donavan Smith won't find much resistance, and he's actually got some pretty good numbers, especially with a 16/5 ratio and 65% completion rate. Baylor also can't run the ball, so Blake Shapen is very important to their success. If he gets hurt, they are screwed, and he's not that good anyway. It's a hold your nose game, but I like Smith's chances to put up some numbers in this one, and I expect Baylor's home woes to continue, especially against a state school that relishes beating you.
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This play definitely “feels” right to me.

Good stuff on the OU game. I wasn’t up to speed on the personnel issues. I like the over as well.
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. Kansas State +4 @Texas: Earlier in the season I wouldn't have thought that getting only 4 with K State at Texas would be value, but here we are. K State has been on a roll lately, especially since they went to the 2 QB rotation adding Avery Johnson in there as a running option, not that Will Howard can't run also. The Giddens/Ward combo at running back has also settled in to the point that they look similar to last year from back there even without Deuce Vaughn. The reason I like the Wildcats in this spot however has more to do with the Texas offense than K State's offense. I almost played Texas last week as a major fade of BYU, but I stayed off it because I wanted to see what Maalik Murphy looked like in relief of Quinn Ewers. The Longhorns covered anyway, but Murphy didn't look good, and it didn't seem like Sark had much interest in throwing the ball downfield at all. Xavier Worthy for example got all of his receiving yards after the catch, and Texas looked like they were playing quite a bit of "Offense in a phone booth". If there isn't much of a passing threat, K State will be able to jam the box and keep Jonathan Brooks, et al in check, and K State struggles to stop the run when the pass game offers a threat. Also, even before Murphy, Texas hasn't been great on 3rd down, and K State thrives on 3rd down and in the red zone, so I have a feeling Texas is going to need Murphy to come through in those clutch situations, and I don't know that he's up to it. Not having Ewers levels the playing field a bit, and when the talent is closer, I like Kleiman and his staff against Sark. I think K State has a great shot of winning this game, and I think the way this spread has materialized is evidence of it. `
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Good stuff. A lot of what you say also points to the under. Sark plays these games very conservatively. As a home dog or small favorite, Sark’s teams are 5-0 to the under by an average of 17.5 points.
 
Br@ssknux said:
10. @USC +3 v Washington: I really hate to back Caleb Williams and this USC squad, but Washington is just begging to get beat, and I think this is finally the week. The Huskies have won all 5 of their Pac 12 games, but you can find some alarming things in all of those wins, especially the last 3. The Oregon win was a great one, they had lots of 4th down luck and got outgained by 100+ yards. Arizona State had them beat a number of times the week after that and outgained them, but they were saved by a very fortunate missed penalty that led to the winning pick 6 on the next play. Last but not least, STANFORD likely would have knocked them off if not for a dropped pass on 4th down that might have put the Cardinal in position to end the game. Defensively, Washington is having a hard time stopping anybody, as Stanford's 499 yard outburst last week suggests. Also, they haven't looked in rhythm offensively since the Oregon game, and that might have a lot to do with the loss of Jalen McMillan, their third head of their 3 headed monster at WR as well as their apparent abandonment of the run game. The past two weeks, they haven't been able to run at all, and they didn't even try two weeks ago against Arizona State. USC's defense is not good, but they are especially bad at stopping the run. If you give them a chance to rush the passer, they have some hope in the secondary. Also, I thought USC showed something last week coming back from 14 down in the 4th quarter against Cal. They easily could have given up, and they still have a path to the Pac 12 title game. Offensively, we know they are lethal, and Washington is especially susceptible on that side of the ball. Washington is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 tries as a road favorite, and DeBoer is only 2-5. This isn't the spot Washington wants to be in this week. The Pac 12 could really use Washington staying clean because if they make that title game undefeated, the winner(if it's 1 loss Oregon in the game with them) has a great shot of making the playoff. We all know how that works out historically for the Pac 12. I have a feeling USC, despite their warts, shakes things up.
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I played Wash -1.5 prior to last week's Stanford game thinking it was free money.

Now I'm just really unsure.

Playing Wash team total over 40.5 may just simplify everything.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I don't blame you Bank, and I think if Oklahoma had Anthony and Stutzman was healthy, I would probably be riding the Sooners as well. But Stutzman is such a big loss, even if he's only hobbled, I can't lay that much with them. OU's reluctance to throw downfield against a KU defense that really wasn't pressuring them spoke some volumes as well.
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Their offensive game plan was so bizarre in that one. I just sat there saying, "are they ever going to throw the ball on first or second down?"
 
M.W. said:
Thoughts on Oregon?
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Good question. I really put that game aside because I heard Mendoza had some concussion issues for Cal and never really looked at it again. If he's good to go, Cal might be able to put up some points. Obviously the Wilcox as a dog factor is there and that line is up there. I really hate going against Oregon though. Gonna pass but Cal probably the right side at this juncture in Oregon's schedule.
 
M.W. said:
I think it's going to be hard for Cal to get over last week's loss. Oregon is showing its quality, and home teams off blowout road wins tend to be good bets late in the season.
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Gotta think Oregon is out for style points given their ranking. And Lanning is a nut job...
 
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