Week 10 Writeups and hopefully feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
As always, my apologies for the lateness in this thread. I always try to get it up and running earlier than this, but again, this annoying concept of employment keeps getting in the way. Speaking of employment, if any of you are located in Southern California, I'll be in the Torrance/Redondo Beach area for work Monday night through Wednesday night if anyone wants to have a beer.

Last week was a good week....I went 9-3 but forgot to post my write up on UVA +6 over GTECH so I'll call it 8-3. Year long total moves to 66-49-3. (.5739)

Purdue +4 LOSS
Penn State +2.5 WIN
Texas Tech +8.5 WIN
Vanderbilt +21 WIN
Pitt +10 LOSS
Louisiana Lafayette -2.5 LOSS
Iowa -7 WIN
Cincinnati +9 WIN
Oklahoma State +5.5 WIN
Florida State +10.5 WIN
South Carolina +17 WIN
Navy +8 WIN
LSU +7 LOSS
Oregon -3 WIN

Total 10-4
YTD 76-53 (.5891)

1. @Purdue +4 v Illinois: Since 2008, Illinois is 1-7 ATS as a road favorite, 2-6 straight up. Although they began the year in pretty good shape and have played solidly on defense all year, they just cannot score on offense, due mostly to a crippling volume of injuries. RB Josh Ferguson looks like he will play this week, but he is hobbled pretty severely and they refuse to throw the ball downfield due to some concerns with the offensive line. Purdue is certainly not a good team, but they've got some vim and vigor occasionally at home, and have covered both games between these teams since Darrel Hazell came aboard. They are coming off a very nice effort at home last week, so their confidence should be pretty high, and let's be honest, the sight of the beat up Illini coming out of the opposing tunnel certainly won't strike fear and doubt in the hearts of the home team in this one. Even if the Illini can get up off the mat and get a road victory, their history tells us it'll probably be by 3.
 
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Watched almost all of the Purdue/Nebraska game last Saturday and was impressed with Purdue. Illini played fairly well early after the tumultuous coaching change but last weeks performance makes you wonder if they will be very inspired for the rest of this season - bol.
 
2. Penn State +2.5 @Northwestern: Both of these defenses should have the extreme upper hand, but i like Penn State's chances to move the ball on the Cats a helluva lot better than vice versa.Northwestern has struggled to stop the run against the better teams on their schedule, and I think Saquon Barkley has a great shot at having a big day. Clayton Thorsen won't be able to stagger around the pocket and take off with as much success as he did at Nebraska...I think they'll be stymied all afternoon by PSU, who ranks highly in just about every defensive category. The had a sloppy performance defensively the last time they hit the road, so I think they'll be making a big effort to clean things up this time around. This should be a tight game, but I'll take the points with the side I feel is a bit better on both sides of the ball.
 
geezer said:
Watched almost all of the Purdue/Nebraska game last Saturday and was impressed with Purdue. Illini played fairly well early after the tumultuous coaching change but last weeks performance makes you wonder if they will be very inspired for the rest of this season - bol.
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Yeah Geezer...I actually feel bad for the Illini. They've had some brutal injuries. They haven't had their best player all year (Mike Dudek), and 3 of their top 4 other WRs have been hurt most of the year. 5 of the top 6 RBs on their fall camp depth chart have been out the past 3 weeks and they have zero healthy tight ends on the roster. It's only a matter of time until Lunt gets hurt, but he's been limited in effectiveness because of all the skill injuries.

On the birght side, though, most of the skill guys will be granted medical redshirts, and their defense is mostly juniors, so whoever ends up taking that job will step into a pretty good situation next year.
 
3. Texas Tech +8.5 @ West Virginia: This is a major public play, as more than 70% of the public likes the dog here, but there are too many reasons to back the Red Raiders to avoid them just because of a public fancy. First of all, we know all about the struggles the Red Raiders have had trying to stop anyone this year, but we have to cut them a little bit of slack...they've faced the 1st, 2nd, 8th, 15th, 33rd and 48th ranked offenses this year, so West Virginia's 69th ranked offense on a per play basis will probably seem like class relief for them. I also can't overlook that the Hillbillies have been awful in this role since they joined the Big 12, clocking in at 1-5 ATS as a home favorite in conference and 11-20 in conference games overall. Texas Tech has been extremely efficient on offense, leading the country in 3rd down conversion % and ranking 4th in overall yards per play. Despite their recent struggles, they are still 5-4 with the meat of their schedule behind them, so they still have a lot to play for and should give a solid effort. Even if they struggle, the back door potential is there with that offense, so I'm attracted to the 8.5.
 
4. Vanderbilt +21 @ Florida: I think this is a really tough spot for Florida. Their effort against arch rival Georgia last week pretty much cemented an SEC East title. Now they come off the high of that great victory and tee it up in a sleepy noon start against a Vandy team that just got shut out by a non power 5 team last week 34-0. You could sympathize with Florida if they thought they could just roll out their helmets and waltz home with a victory given what they've done in recent weeks. However, if you take a close look at that Vandy Houston game from last week, it was a heck of a lot closer than the final score indicated. Vandy's defense held Houston to their season low yardage total, a full 154 yards below their season average. When you stack these teams up against each other on paper, I see an advantage for the Vandy defense over the Florida offense in virtually every category. Vandy's defense has held just about everyone they've faced to season lows in yards, and i think they'll be able to have success against the gators offense just like they have consistently all year. Offensively, they've actually gotten consistently worse all year, but if they can find a way to put ANY points on the board, I think they have a great chance to hang around for a long time in this game. If McElwain gets a max effort out of the gators in this one, he deserves coach of the year immediately because it's a very difficult spot for them
 
See this one a little different. A win here and UF seals the east. McClain is a little different than most coaches. I can't put my finger on it, but there is something special about him. I can't rule out defensive TDS in this game. With the propensity of Vandy,s willingness to give up the ball, a pick 6 or 3 would not be unfathomable. Special teams edge is hugely in the Gators favor too. I know I can't talk you off and nor would I try, so I will just have to say health on this one. Agree with the rest. GL Brass.
 
booksbestfriend said:
See this one a little different. A win here and UF seals the east. McClain is a little different than most coaches. I can't put my finger on it, but there is something special about him. I can't rule out defensive TDS in this game. With the propensity of Vandy,s willingness to give up the ball, a pick 6 or 3 would not be unfathomable. Special teams edge is hugely in the Gators favor too. I know I can't talk you off and nor would I try, so I will just have to say health on this one. Agree with the rest. GL Brass.
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In my betting life, if there have been 200 non-offensive touchdowns scored in the games I've bet, I would guess that about 175 of them were against me, so another one in this tilt wouldn't surprise me. I agree on McElwain. He's solid in preparation and seems to be the rare coach who has a clue on gameday. We'll see what happens with recruiting, though I'd guess that recruiting kind of takes care of itself at a place like Florida.
 
5. @Pitt +10 v Notre Dame: ND comes off a very tough battle last Saturday night on national TV with Temple. They were pretty obviously the better team but had all kinds of trouble converting 3rd downs and getting into the end zone when they were in the red zone. Despite a somewhat weak rushing attack on a per carry basis, running the ball is still Pitt's MO, and the Irish have struggled to stop the run, ranking 84th. For whatever reason, Pitt has been an undisputed thorn in the Irish's side: In the last 6 matchups between these two, Pitt's won 3 of them and the 3 that ND has won have been by 3,3, and 6 points, and the Panthers have been 4-1-1 in the 6 meetings ATS. In my opinion, Pat Narduzzi has made a significant difference for Pitt in his first year there, and he certainly has been familiar with ND over the years from his time as the Michigan State DC. ND's red zone struggles make it that much more difficult to cover a significant spread, so I think Pitt keeps this one close. OT wouldn't surprise me n this one.
 
6. Louisiana Lafayette -2.5 @Georgia State: In recent years, La-La has been a good finisher late in the season, including 3-1 in their last 4 last year. They are a heavy running team, and Georgia State naturally can't stop the run. Defensively, the Ragin Cajuns are ok, but they are better at stopping the pass, which is GSU's mod us operand i. I should also mention that GSU is absolutely atrocious at home, sporting losses to the likes of Charlotte and New Mexico State. They are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 at home. I'm banking on that history here against an improving Cajun squad.
 
7. Iowa -7 @ Indiana: The Hoosiers are no pushover, especially at home, but I think the weight of all the disappointing things that have happened to them might culminate in a brutal blowout this week. Iowa hammers them in just about every category, especially when it comes to Iowa's defense against Indiana's offense. Iowa should be able to run the ball at will, and Indiana QB Nate Sudfeld is likely to be running for his life at the word go as the Hawkeyes have an elite pass rush. Iowa has also covered 7 of their last 8 games as road chalk. ​
 
Iowa not only has a gigantic edge on them on defense, Indiana only averages one point a game more than Iowa on offense. No look ahead for Iowa, and they are not coming off a big game. If you are ever going to lay points on the road this looks like the game.

Like your Penn State and Texas Tech bets as well.

With Penn State you get a slightly better defense and a better QB and RB, plus points.

Texas Tech looks like they still have plenty of energy and are playing hard. Weak defense, but not much worse than West Virginia's.

And Tech has better athletes all over the field than W Virginia. If you get a big effort from Tech, which, for the the reasons you list, you should, then this is a good bet.
 
8. Cincinnati +9 @ Houston: I've been a big backer of Houston this year, and why wouldn't I? They've been pretty much toying with their competition all year...there's really nothing not to like about them. Tom Herman is obviously a smart guy on the sidelines, their offense hasn't really been stopped by anyone, and their defense ranks almost as highly as their offense. However, other than Louisville, who is far from a flawless team, the Cougs have played nobody. Advanced metrics list Louisville as the #57 team in the country, and that's the best squad the Cougs have faced. The rest of their schedule? #71, 84, 102, 115, 121, and 123. Cincinnati is ranked 40th in that metric, and comes in having played a much tougher schedule than the Cougs. Cincy has also outgained their opponents by an average of 200 yards per game(including a 182 yard edge at Memphis and a 261 yard edge(!!) vs Temple), and their offense ranks 11th in the country in yards per play. Frankly, the Cougars are due for a subpar effort, and even if they play well, I think Cincinnati will give them everything they can handle with an offense miles better than anyone Houston has faced,regardless of which QB that insufferable jackass Tuberville throws out there. Any time I can get 9 points with a team that has dominated the stat sheet like Cincy has, I'm going to do it. Good backdoor potential with that offense as well.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Iowa not only has a gigantic edge on them on defense, Indiana only averages one point a game more than Iowa on offense. No look ahead for Iowa, and they are not coming off a big game. If you are ever going to lay points on the road this looks like the game.

Like your Penn State and Texas Tech bets as well.

With Penn State you get a slightly better defense and a better QB and RB, plus points.

Texas Tech looks like they still have plenty of energy and are playing hard. Weak defense, but not much worse than West Virginia's.

And Tech has better athletes all over the field than W Virginia. If you get a big effort from Tech, which, for the the reasons you list, you should, then this is a good bet.
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Now I feel even better about these! :shake:
 
I think the biggest concern for Purdue game is the bowl implications for the conference. Purdue is not sweeping to close the year.

great reads and good luck mister brass
 
9. @Oklahoma State +5.5 v TCU: I have to admit that it's pretty tough to go against Patterson, Boykin, Josh Doctson and TCU, but in this case, there is way too much value in this undefeated home dog to pass up. Mike Gundy is never a bad guy to play on either, as he's over 60% ATS in just about every conceivable category. My problem with TCU is their defense, as well as their road performance in the past couple years. If you eliminate the game against their own personal punching bag Texas, the Frogs are 1-5 ATS as road favorites during this stretch of dominance. As for the defense, they are going to give up points in this one, as they've got an unfavorable matchup in both phases against the Cowboys, especially through the air. They were helpless to stop Texas Tech, who since has not really competed with the other big boys of the Big 12. You can also make a case that Oklahoma State is the best defense the Frogs have faced. I don't think TCU can be stopped by anyone, but I think OSU's defense is good enough to keep them in a spot where theier advantages on offense(and special teams) will be able to make up the difference. I give OSU an outstanding shot at winning this game outright, so I'll certainly take the 5.5 with them at home.
 
clowncar said:
I think the biggest concern for Purdue game is the bowl implications for the conference. Purdue is not sweeping to close the year.

great reads and good luck mister brass
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Thanks as always for your comments CC. Definitely a valid concern...I just hate Illinois as a favorite in that game.
 
10. Florida State +10.5 @ Clemson: I'm sure the public is all over this dog, but getting a good Florida State team with 10.5 points is simply an auto play on principle for me. When's the last time FSU was a double digit dog? I couldn't tell you, but they haven't been a regular season dog of any kind since 2011. On paper, these two teams are very evenly matched, almost a dead heat in every category. Clemson has unquestionably been the best team in the country, but this week they'll be facing athletes on par with them, something that hasn't been the case in just about every week except Notre Dame. You also have to factor in that Jimbo Wilson will be able to play the disrespect card, and you can be sure that the Noles will be out for blood, being dogged against a team these kids have handled in recent years. I do expect Clemson to win, but FSU knocking them off would not surprise me either, so the 10.5 is a value I can't pass up.
 
Br@ssknux said:
In my betting life, if there have been 200 non-offensive touchdowns scored in the games I've bet, I would guess that about 175 of them were against me, so another one in this tilt wouldn't surprise me. I agree on McElwain. He's solid in preparation and seems to be the rare coach who has a clue on gameday. We'll see what happens with recruiting, though I'd guess that recruiting kind of takes care of itself at a place like Florida.
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booksbestfriend said:
See this one a little different. A win here and UF seals the east. McClain is a little different than most coaches. I can't put my finger on it, but there is something special about him. I can't rule out defensive TDS in this game. With the propensity of Vandy,s willingness to give up the ball, a pick 6 or 3 would not be unfathomable. Special teams edge is hugely in the Gators favor too. I know I can't talk you off and nor would I try, so I will just have to say health on this one. Agree with the rest. GL Brass.
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It's also homecoming weekend for the Gators. The swamp is going to be electric even for a nooner start
 
11. South Carolina +17 @ Tennessee: I like Tennessee as a team, I really do. On paper, you can make a case that they might actually be the third best team in the SEC after Bama and LSU, but they just can't seem to get the results taken care of on the field. The oddmakers obviously have high expectations for them, as they are installed as 17 point favorites in this one. You can probably make a case for that line when you look at the stats, because SC has been terrible on defense, but they have improved quite a bit in recent weeks and have put together pretty solid efforts since the OBC hung up his whistle. Tennessee has not beaten an SEC for other than Kentucky(who they have a voodoo magic curse over) by 17 points since 2010, and the last time they were favored by this much in an SEC game was way back in 2009. I certainly don't trust the 4-4 Vols with a spread this high, especially since the Gamecocks are likely to be able to put some points on the board in this one as I see a pretty solid advantage for them offensively against the 72nd ranked Vols D in yards per play. Tennessee should win this, but I don't like their chances to blow the Cocks off the field.
 
12. Navy +8 @ Memphis: The American conference is getting a lot of positive press lately, and I totally agree with that as they have been very good this year. Memphis and Houston are borderline top 10 teams in my opinion, and Temple and Cincinnati are also obviously very solid squads. However, the one team nobody really talks about is Navy. The Middies are 6-1 with their only loss coming at Notre Dame in a game where they moved the ball extremely well, they just coughed it up multiple times. Memphis comes in to this game staring a trip to Houston in the face next week, and all hands have to be on deck for any preparation for a game with navy. Memphis has never faced the Middies, so the option attack will likely be a cold reality when they tee it up. Defense hasn't been Memphis's calling card either, as they are ranked 100th in yards per play. There's no doubt that the Tigers will have success throwing it against navy, as their pass offense is among the best in the country, but covering 8 against a road dog stalwart like Navy will be a tough proposition. We all know Coach Ken's record as a road dog. (17-8 since 2008).
 
13. LSU +7 @ Alabama: I don't think Alabama's offense is good enough to lay these kind of points to LSU here. Bama is 54th in yards per play, 47th in rushing ypc, 53rd in passer rating and 107th in converting 3rd downs. LSU's defense is certainly capable of handling offensive mediocrity like that, and LSU's offense, despite all the hand wringing about their QB play, has been the 9th most efficient offense in the country according to FEI on Football Outsiders. Their rushing attack is the best in the country, and Brandon Harris has a 9/0 TD/INT ratio with 2 receivers who are coming into their own and will certainly play on Sundays. This game should go to the wire and I wouldn't be surprised in the least if LSU is in position to win late. No doubt I'm taking the 7 here.
 
14. @Oregon -3 v Cal: Another example of crazy line correction to the perception that Oregon is no longer an elite team. That might be true, and I know that they've lost two games outright at home in very horrific fashion, but there is still a ton of value in the Ducks at home laying only 3 to a run of the mill Pac 12 squad like Cal. Don't get me wrong, I like cal ad I know they'll be racking up the yardage against the porous Duck defense, but now that the public is turning their back on the Ducks, I think they are an inspired bunch who owes their fans a great performance after the last 2 stinkers. Cal also looks to be in a bit of a tailspin, and certainly isn't equipped to stop a Duck offense that has Vernon Adams back in the saddle.
 
That's probably going to be it for this week. Some others I considered:

Did you know that Washington State has outgained it's last 4 opponents by 128 yards per game? Maybe you did, but the crazy thing about it is that they were an average of a TD dog in all those games!! Now they have a home game against an AZ State team that can't seem to figure out what it's doing. I would usually lay the short line (-2.5) with Wazzou here but Graham has owned leach, so I'm laying off....I also like UVA (+6) quite a bit at Miami. UVA is pretty underrated in my opinion, and despite their miracle last week, Miami is a real mess and shouldn't be favored against any good teams. I wanted more than a TD though so I laid off....New Mexico is catching 16 at home against Utah State. That seems to high to me, especially since UNM has been a really good conference DD dog. Not sure why I'm not biting...the Lobos covered a big spread in Logan last year, they should be able to do it at home too....Arkansas as a 10 point dog intrigues me, and I think chances are better than not that they cover that, but Ole Miss has been explosive in the passing game and Arky has been bad against the pass, so I shied away. Another point or two and I would have bit....
 
BOL Brass - Really like your card today and the only one I disagree with is Bama. I took them -5.5 earlier in the week, and just feel that in a strength vs. strength (LSU rushing vs. Bama front 7) that Bama has the advantage. Also feel like Miles is always prone to one big coaching mistake in this matchup which will be key. I have been trying to find a reason to play Navy today and I think you may have convinced me.
 
Meant to say also regarding Navy, that I would expect Memphis to run considerably less plays than their avg. of 85.3 plays based on Navy ground game absorbing a lot of the TOP today. Figure Memphis maybe runs 75 plays or so, so a >10% reduction.
 
Timh said:
BOL Brass - Really like your card today and the only one I disagree with is Bama. I took them -5.5 earlier in the week, and just feel that in a strength vs. strength (LSU rushing vs. Bama front 7) that Bama has the advantage. Also feel like Miles is always prone to one big coaching mistake in this matchup which will be key. I have been trying to find a reason to play Navy today and I think you may have convinced me.
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Can't argue there...I just don't think Bama's offense is going to run away with things, unless henry really goes off, and I would find that surprising. BOL as always to you Timmy! Go Midshipmen!
 
Thanks BBF. I certainly didn't expect it to play out the way it did. take away Webb's long run and Vandy would have barely cracked 100 yards. They can play some D though, no doubt about that.

10-4 for the week, and if I would have just gone with the late scratches it would have been even better,. I won't be greedy though, because timing of the plays really helped on a couple. I'll add the recaps on the first page here in a bit.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Thanks BBF. I certainly didn't expect it to play out the way it did. take away Webb's long run and Vandy would have barely cracked 100 yards. They can play some D though, no doubt about that.

10-4 for the week, and if I would have just gone with the late scratches it would have been even better,. I won't be greedy though, because timing of the plays really helped on a couple. I'll add the recaps on the first page here in a bit.
Click to expand...

Florida started with all of the field position in that game too. You had it pegged perfectly.
 
you are winning your plays, generating good discussion on games, and posting really good explanations for your plays. cant say enough good things, your posts are a weekly must-read
 
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