Week 10 ML Dogs

Argh hate them on the road especially after a big road win, just not their MO

Ball St
GT
Miami FL

Lean UVA, Mizzou, Temple, Memphis
Possibly NCSt
 
Could also say the same thing about USC/UCLA but I'm really not sure if P12 refs have ever had conference awareness
 
We have a new ML darling - enter Florida International. FIU has now pulled 3 upsets at NM State, at Charlotte and home vs LaTech, two of which were pretty big. MTSU also got their 3rd upset win last week.

Teams with 3 wins when dogged: Eastern Michigan (also lost twice when favored), FIU (new addition), Georgia Southern, Kansas, MTSU (new addition), Ohio, Troy

And we have our first team to lose 4 games as a favorite - it's Marshall. Marshall has also won twice as an underdog which means in 6 of 8 Marshall games, the underdog wins straight up. Or another way to put it, every FBS Marshall game, the underdog has won outright! That is just amazing!!

Teams with 3 losses when favored: Air Force, Central Michigan, FAU (also just pulled their first upset), Marshall (4x loser) (also won twice when dogged), ULL (new addition), Miami Fl, Nevada, NIU (also won once as a dog), Northwestern, UAB (new addition), Wisconsin
 
I don't anticipate having many this week. Which is probably good as last week I went 2-5, but managed to be in the black given the two winners had pretty good odds. I normally like to find just 3-5 per week.

This week has a ton of small lines that I don't look to ML.

Some of the candidates:
Army, Indiana, Navy, Charlotte, BYU, Tulsa, Tennessee, FIU, UNLV

Some teams I need to get reaquainted with. Like New Mexico and Utah State. Need to brush up on UNLV also. I don't think I have been on or against Indiana since Sept, so need to relearn about them.
 
CUSA continues to be a goldmine for upset winners. After last week, every team in that league has now either been upset or won an upset atleast once, except for UTSA. It's probably no coincidence that Marshall, who only plays in games involving upsets, was a CUSA member last year.

Charlotte won as a 20 pt dog and 15.5 pt dog, lost as a 13.5 pt fav
FAU is a 3x frequent flyer loser, just pulled first upset win
FIU has won as a 14.5, 13.5 and 6.5 pt dog
LaTech lost as 6.5 pt fav
MTSU won as 11.5, 25.5 and 2.5 pt dogs
North Texas won is 3 pt and 10.5 pt dogs
Rice has won as 11.5 and 10 pt dogs, lost as 15.5 pt fav
UAB has lost 3x as favorite
UTEP won as 16 and 4 pt dogs, lost as 2.5 pt fav
WKU lost as 5 and 10.5 pt fav
 
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s--k said:
We have a new ML darling - enter Florida International. FIU has now pulled 3 upsets at NM State, at Charlotte and home vs LaTech, two of which were pretty big. MTSU also got their 3rd upset win last week.

Teams with 3 wins when dogged: Eastern Michigan (also lost twice when favored), FIU (new addition), Georgia Southern, Kansas, MTSU (new addition), Ohio, Troy

And we have our first team to lose 4 games as a favorite - it's Marshall. Marshall has also won twice as an underdog which means in 6 of 8 Marshall games, the underdog wins straight up. Or another way to put it, every FBS Marshall game, the underdog has won outright! That is just amazing!!

Teams with 3 losses when favored: Air Force, Central Michigan, FAU (also just pulled their first upset), Marshall (4x loser) (also won twice when dogged), ULL (new addition), Miami Fl, Nevada, NIU (also won once as a dog), Northwestern, UAB (new addition), Wisconsin
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I hate betting on Miami, but if you're interested yo have to go with the moneyline, right?
 
s--k said:
We have a new ML darling - enter Florida International. FIU has now pulled 3 upsets at NM State, at Charlotte and home vs LaTech, two of which were pretty big. MTSU also got their 3rd upset win last week.

Teams with 3 wins when dogged: Eastern Michigan (also lost twice when favored), FIU (new addition), Georgia Southern, Kansas, MTSU (new addition), Ohio, Troy

And we have our first team to lose 4 games as a favorite - it's Marshall. Marshall has also won twice as an underdog which means in 6 of 8 Marshall games, the underdog wins straight up. Or another way to put it, every FBS Marshall game, the underdog has won outright! That is just amazing, like betpokiesnz!!

Teams with 3 losses when favored: Air Force, Central Michigan, FAU (also just pulled their first upset), Marshall (4x loser) (also won twice when dogged), ULL (new addition), Miami Fl, Nevada, NIU (also won once as a dog), Northwestern, UAB (new addition), Wisconsin
Click to expand...
Hell, Marshall was the most unexpected turnaround for me. I expected so much more from them, but they looked like boys!
 
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DarOv said:
Hell, Marshall was the most unexpected turnaround for me. I expected so much more from them, but they looked like boys!
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Herd 'plays to the level of their opponent' ..... HC does a piss poor job of getting his team up for anything other than a huge game - they beat ND on the road, immediately lose to B Green - whip a ranked JMU on the road, then lose to a CC. at home. They literally have no chance to beat ODU ha
 
BYU - boise has beaten creampuffs with the backup qb and is overvalued- i don't think boise is on the level of an ecu yet

boston college - duke lost to georgia tech as a favorite and bc beat louisville

navy - cincy can't hold leads, their offense just stalls consistently and their run defense is worse then last year the 3 down d can be run on

texas tech - feels like a pickem game to me and situationally a better spot for tech

sparty - idn who is out, but progression was seen by me last 2 games by sparty and illinois is still overvalued.

west virginia - the type of team they can beat is a shitty offense like iowa state, kind of a worse oklahoma who just beat iowa state

vandy - is the line still 7 - feels like a pickem

hawaii - bows improved alot and fresno can't run the ball
 
Vapster said:
Chippewas Always Play Well VS Huskies.
I'll Take The Chippewas +200 2Night
:shake:
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The line movement implies that maybe Lombardi is expected to play for NIU? I don't know the circumstances around his injury; was out, came back and then was out again. They generally have had poor QB play without him with the backup also being injured and having to start their 3rd stringer.

Central is mysterious this year - just been an odd team all year. McElwain started rotating QBs last game, taking Richardson off the field seems odd considering past performance, but he hasn't been good this year. After rotating some 1H, Bauer was the primary for the 2H vs BG. Nichols did not play last week after being probable. I'd suspect he could play this week.

I would pick NIU to win depending on who is QB, but the value in terms of the spread and ML lie with Central.
 
Was wondering how Penn State does after playing Ohio State.

2021 they played at Maryland as 10 pt road favorite. I had Maryland, I lost and it hurt. It was just 7-6 HT. The game was tied entering the 4th Q 14-14. Maryland however really screwed up the 2H. They fumbled at the P12, threw an INT at the P13 which was ret'd 87y for TD that took a 10 pt game and turned it into a 17 pt game with under 3min left. Maryland could not backdoor. PSU only outgained them by 37 yards.

In 2020, Penn State really struggled early in the Covid season. The week after losing at home vs Ohio State, PSU followed that up with a 16 pt loss as a 27 pt favorite. Maryland led 21-0 and 28-7 HT, 35-19 F.

2019 Penn State had the benefit of hosting Rutgers off their loss at Ohio State. PSU only won that game 27-6 as a 40 pt favorite. It was the season finale which changes things a little perhaps. It wasn't pretty though. Rutgers led 3-0 and PSU would only lead 7-3 HT. Rutgers actually outgained them by 50 yards.

In both 2017 and 2018 Penn State played Michigan State after losing to Ohio State. In both games, Penn State was upset. In 2018 17-21 as a 13.5 pt fav and in 2017 at MSU 24-27 as a 9.5 pt fav.

Going back to 2016, Penn State beat Ohio St and followed that up with a 62-24 at Purdue. 2015 after losing to Ohio State, they beat Maryland 31-30 as a 5 pt fav on a neutral field. In Franklin's first year, after losing to Ohio State in OT, PSU lost at home vs Maryland 19-20 as 3.5 pt fav.

The game after Penn State plays Ohio St they are just 2-6 ATS, 4-4 SU. Maryland was a .500 team in the reg ssn last year. 2021 Maryland was 2-3. Rutgers in 2019 was 2-10. Michigan State was 7-6 in 2018, they were 10-3 in 2017. Purdue was bad in 2016, as was Maryland in 2015, but they were decent in 2014.

Bottom line, Penn State often struggles the game after playing Ohio State and it has been against teams most of the time that aren't all that good.

It wasn't a pretty game for Hoosiers last year at Penn State 24-0 Nits. It seems like so long ago, but remember week 1 covid season, the Penix full extension stretch game winner in OT? That was the last game in Bloomington. That was IU's only win vs them over the last 10 games. Indiana has drastically changed over the years so it is hard to compare previous versions of IU football to what they are now. PSU won by 7 in 2019 as 15 pt home fav, but IU outgained them by nearly 100y. In 2018 PSU won only by 5 laying 14.5 in Bloomington - that was a real close game throughout until PSU ended up getting turnovers in the 2H and short fields for easy scores. Indiana outgained them by 137y in that one.

So I think we have evidence that PSU can faulter and underperform post-Ohio State. They have won recent games vs Indiana and last year was a pretty easy win vs IU, but in a few years prior, Tom Allen's IU teams used to give PSU all they could handle. Are they capable of that now?
 
s--k said:
Are they capable of that now?
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It doesn't really look like it. I mean, Rutgers beat them.

For what it's worth, Indiana does play better at home. 5 pt loss to Maryland. They lost by 21 to Michigan, but that is misleading compared to how the game was played (was just 17-10 entering the 4th Q). If this game were at Penn State, it would be hard to begin making the case. The fact they are at home where they've fought hard in games vs teams that are better than them, and they're off a bye with back-to-back road games on deck pretty much ensures IU is going to be dialed in best effort for this game. I personally have not watched Indiana play with my own eyes in a long time, I might not like what I'd see. But I do like the set-up.
 
Neither Army nor Air Force have lived up to any kind of preseason or recent standard or expectations.

At AF's best, they can whip a bad P5 team (Colorado). At their worst they lose a close one at home to Boise (no shame), only beat Navy by 3 at home (rivalry) and lose at Wyoming by 3 (AF was down players).

At Army's best, they can take UTSA to OT where they ultimately lost. At their worst they lose at home to Georgia St (Ga St was 0-4 at the time), they trail ULM at HT (Army did dominate the 2H). I'd say their big loss at WF was a misleading final where Army was better than the score, but Army is off this year no doubt.

So AF is the rightful favorite on this neutral site game, but history tells us to expect something close and potentially an upset.

2021 Army +2.5 21-14 OT *neutral - dog cover, upset
2020 Army +2.5 10-7 WP - dog cover, upset
2019 Air Force -16.5 17-13 CS - dog cover, fav win
2018 Army -6.5 17-14 WP - dog cover, fav win
2017 Army +6.5 21-0 CS - dog cover, upset
2016 Air Force +1.5 31-12 WP - dog cover, upset
2015 Air Force -17 20-3 CS - push, fav win
2014 Air Force -3 23-6 WP (Monken first year) - fav cover
2013 Air Force -1 42-28 CS - fav cover
2012 Army +7 41-21 WP - dog cover, upset
2011 Air Force -16.5 24-14 CS - dog cover, fav win
2010 Air Force -6.5 42-22 WP - fav cover

Looking back on it, I'm surprised how good Monken has been in this series of late. Army has won 4 of the last 5 straight up, 3 of which were upset wins. Overall Army has covered 4 of the last 5 (only noncover was a 3pt win as 6.5pt fav).

Even better is the dog is on a 6-0 ATS run and 4 of the last 6 have been upsets.
 
At the rate CUSA dogs are winning, I'm tempted to consider each of the following:

UTEP at Rice
Charlotte hosting WKU
LaTech hosting MTSU
FIU at North Texas

Given what has happened this year, I'd not be shocked if any or all of those CUSA dogs won this week.
 
And actually MACtion dogs went 4-0 ATS (depending on one's WM/BG number), 3-1 SU
 
Rice is 0-2 ATS as fav this year, 1-2 ATS when counting FCS game.

Rice doesn't get favored often. This year they are 1-1 SU as fav vs FBS. Last year they were 0-1 SU vs FBS as fav. 2020 0-1 SU as fav. 2019 1-1 SU as fav. 2018 0-2 SU vs FBS as a fav. 2017 0-1 SU as a fav.

This Rice team is better than the previous years, but this Rice team also just got blown the F out by Charlotte. Since 2017 Rice 2-7 straight up as a favorite vs FBS teams. Most of the lines have been very small, like 1/1.5/2
 
s--k said:
At the rate CUSA dogs are winning, I'm tempted to consider each of the following:

UTEP at Rice
Charlotte hosting WKU
LaTech hosting MTSU
FIU at North Texas

Given what has happened this year, I'd not be shocked if any or all of those CUSA dogs won this week.
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I was close to firing on fiu last week but I didn't expect a repeat performance after the Charlotte drubbing. I was very surprised to see Charlotte turn it around the following week as well. Top to bottom in that conference is closer than most.
 
s--k said:
Was wondering how Penn State does after playing Ohio State.

2021 they played at Maryland as 10 pt road favorite. I had Maryland, I lost and it hurt. It was just 7-6 HT. The game was tied entering the 4th Q 14-14. Maryland however really screwed up the 2H. They fumbled at the P12, threw an INT at the P13 which was ret'd 87y for TD that took a 10 pt game and turned it into a 17 pt game with under 3min left. Maryland could not backdoor. PSU only outgained them by 37 yards.

In 2020, Penn State really struggled early in the Covid season. The week after losing at home vs Ohio State, PSU followed that up with a 16 pt loss as a 27 pt favorite. Maryland led 21-0 and 28-7 HT, 35-19 F.

2019 Penn State had the benefit of hosting Rutgers off their loss at Ohio State. PSU only won that game 27-6 as a 40 pt favorite. It was the season finale which changes things a little perhaps. It wasn't pretty though. Rutgers led 3-0 and PSU would only lead 7-3 HT. Rutgers actually outgained them by 50 yards.

In both 2017 and 2018 Penn State played Michigan State after losing to Ohio State. In both games, Penn State was upset. In 2018 17-21 as a 13.5 pt fav and in 2017 at MSU 24-27 as a 9.5 pt fav.

Going back to 2016, Penn State beat Ohio St and followed that up with a 62-24 at Purdue. 2015 after losing to Ohio State, they beat Maryland 31-30 as a 5 pt fav on a neutral field. In Franklin's first year, after losing to Ohio State in OT, PSU lost at home vs Maryland 19-20 as 3.5 pt fav.

The game after Penn State plays Ohio St they are just 2-6 ATS, 4-4 SU. Maryland was a .500 team in the reg ssn last year. 2021 Maryland was 2-3. Rutgers in 2019 was 2-10. Michigan State was 7-6 in 2018, they were 10-3 in 2017. Purdue was bad in 2016, as was Maryland in 2015, but they were decent in 2014.

Bottom line, Penn State often struggles the game after playing Ohio State and it has been against teams most of the time that aren't all that good.

It wasn't a pretty game for Hoosiers last year at Penn State 24-0 Nits. It seems like so long ago, but remember week 1 covid season, the Penix full extension stretch game winner in OT? That was the last game in Bloomington. That was IU's only win vs them over the last 10 games. Indiana has drastically changed over the years so it is hard to compare previous versions of IU football to what they are now. PSU won by 7 in 2019 as 15 pt home fav, but IU outgained them by nearly 100y. In 2018 PSU won only by 5 laying 14.5 in Bloomington - that was a real close game throughout until PSU ended up getting turnovers in the 2H and short fields for easy scores. Indiana outgained them by 137y in that one.

So I think we have evidence that PSU can faulter and underperform post-Ohio State. They have won recent games vs Indiana and last year was a pretty easy win vs IU, but in a few years prior, Tom Allen's IU teams used to give PSU all they could handle. Are they capable of that now?
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It's not just the Buckeyes - JF is the worst coach in America preparing his team off a loss - about 25% ATS . Stoops #2 at 35% or so.
 
bookieassassin said:
It's not just the Buckeyes - JF is the worst coach in America preparing his team off a loss - about 25% ATS . Stoops #2 at 35% or so.
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Good info. I was going to look a little further- I don't know if there were any bye weeks after the losses and if those results differed. Was going to see what other next game results were say following Michigan, but they're team "was built to beat Ohio St" - it must be uniquely disappointing to continue failing in the biggest game of the year as a player and coach. I just hope IU delivers on their end.
 
Played this one...3, 4, 5, & 6-teamer RRs with:

Boston College Eagles +290
Army Black Knights +255
Tulsa Golden Hurricane +236
Tennessee Volunteers +236
James Madison Dukes +250
Vanderbilt Commodores +222
Risked $50.60 (~$1.38 per Parlay) to Win $8403.68

BOLTA!!
 
JROCK1966 said:
Life's got me down lately man...trying to bounce back best I can....headed to mountains for some R&R tomorrow so had to post my play tonight....BOL this weekend!

:shake:
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mountains always win - enjoy
 
BYU up 234 to 89 yards at half but tired at 7. Two INT's for Hall and what I'm guessing was a missed punch in with 1 sec
 
Two Utes said:
BYU up 234 to 89 yards at half but tired at 7. Two INT's for Hall and what I'm guessing was a missed punch in with 1 sec
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One INT was tipped off receivers hands into the EZ and the other was in or near the RZ as I recall. Then of course the no TD before HT, Kotoa looked in to me, and looked in to the announcers and the "replay expert" - but as he said "I think he scored, but I can't see evidence for sure that he did". I think he did too, but I was using probability, not certainty. As long as they always do that on review then I'm fine with doing it that way. Those kinds of events in the 1H are hard to overcome, but BYU was able to, barely. By the way, replay had a similar call with a Boise RB in the 2H where the call on the field said he did not score. I thought on replay he scored, as did the announcers, but again, replay said he did not. The difference was that wasn't with :01 at the end of the half. Boise scored next play, there was no next play for BYU at the end of the 1H. Good game. Close call at the end on the game winning TD, again, replay stuck with the call on the field.

BYU was my only ML winner yesterday which was disappointing. Finished in the black, but if that TD had not counted at the end, I would've lost money on the day. I had almost 80 bets yesterday, but so often the outcome of a handful of bets on one game makes or breaks it all - went 4-0 on BYU bets, 33-38-1 o n the rest.

13 upsets yesterday. 9 of 13 were dogged 3.5-or-less. There were 3 DD upsets (Mich St, Liberty, LSU). It felt a little better than it actually was, dogs overall just 22-32 ATS yesterday, but including weekday and Friday games dogs where 7-2 ATS, so 29-34 ATS on the week. 4 additional upsets on weekday games makes it 17 straight up dog winners for the week.
 
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