Week 10 ML Dogs

s--k said:
Numbers matter. Look at Bill Trocci. Ohio State a loss and Texas A&M a win.
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ProV1Colt said:
Utah +528
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I take it you meant Utah State there, S--K.

I'm with 2daBank on the MAC. I love to watch the MAC and love to bet them when I know anything about the teams, but this year it's all a blank to me. Several pickers on this board are very good on the MAC so maybe they'll post their views.

I won't bet any of them, but might play a couple of small parlays
 
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I'm not very interested in Utah St that was ProV. Does look strange to see Nevada favored by so many.
 
I like listening to Joel Klatts weekly segment on the herd, he doing the asu game so he can’t pick it but he was pretty clear on his thoughts bout the asu side.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Watch West Virginia. Early kick. Lots of talk (still) about beating Okie State (or, should we say, Okie State handing the game to Texas.). Ehlinger is banged up and against that defense. WVU (historically) plays really well in Austin.

Feels like a 24-20 game, either way.
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not to over simplify it but Texas pretty much always a team I look to back as dogs and fade as favs. My concern is wvu hasn’t seemed the same on the road, very small sample and in both road games they did rack up yardage that would make me think they should have scored more than they did. I don’t know the reasons for not? Doege didn’t throw picks in either, I dunno if there were fumbles or red zone issues?? Is them coming out to the Mid/south west causing them problems? You say they have been historically good at Austin tho? Thst a plus.
 
Dog doesn’t always win but they sure do cover a ton in the army/AF rivalry! 7 out of last 9 I believe the dog has covered including the last 4. They all seemingly go under! This the lowest total in some time but 5 of the last 6 have stayed under this number (not the posted total for that game tho as the last 6 have played under).

I don’t see all that much reason why army is laying 5? I think they incredibly even, besides the cincy game army simply been smashing cup cakes. AF smashed their loan cup cake in navy who actually rated higher than all the teams army has beat. Both AF losses were to teams I think considerably better than the teams army been playing.

gotta take the points me thinks, I don’t like doing this in ncaa but might be a really good spot for a AF/under teaser?
 
Can ecu rebound from getting cheated about as badly I’ve seen a team get cheated out a game on that final tulsa drive? Maybe you can find a worse call but the series of absolute dog shit calls against them on that drive was ridiculous.

Outside of that crazy navy comeback Tulane has mostly smashed the bad teams they have faced. Their 2 common opponents including navy were damn near identical margins tho. Kinda a tough game to figure out, think I’ll just move on unless someone can sell me on a side?
 
As much I have loved me some tulsa I can’t wrap my head around them now being sizable favs vs all these teams! Navy has absolutely owned them but this year it pretty clear is the 1st in a long time tulsa considered the better team, last year it was basically a pk and navy destroyed them, but again that was with Perry doing everything for the navy offense which obviously he no longer there. Double digits still feels like a lot considering the history says tulsa struggles stopping this offense, id guess this the best run defense tulsa has entered this game sporting tho. Think I’d lean to taking the points but not real strongly, lol.
 
Would these thoughts be better in discussion thread or they good here? They all basically looking at the dog but not really ml in many cases so wasnt sure, lol.
 
2daBank said:
Is there any doubt Herm Edwards team will be the more prepared under the circumstances and the early start to boot? Man I think you gotta take the +10.5 and that looks like a potential upset to me.
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Agree!

Frank Costanza said:
Watch West Virginia. Early kick. Lots of talk (still) about beating Okie State (or, should we say, Okie State handing the game to Texas.). Ehlinger is banged up and against that defense. WVU (historically) plays really well in Austin.

Feels like a 24-20 game, either way.
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Agree!

2daBank said:
not to over simplify it but Texas pretty much always a team I look to back as dogs and fade as favs. My concern is wvu hasn’t seemed the same on the road, very small sample and in both road games they did rack up yardage that would make me think they should have scored more than they did. I don’t know the reasons for not? Doege didn’t throw picks in either, I dunno if there were fumbles or red zone issues?? Is them coming out to the Mid/south west causing them problems? You say they have been historically good at Austin tho? Thst a plus.
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TT did have a fumble return TD vs WVU. Who was their other road game....Ok St...I'd have to look back in that one, but I think WV failed to score on some decent drives or settled for FGs. After I looked at the WV-OK St box score, it led me to want to back WV vs Baylor the following week. Which did go to OT, but I felt like WV vastly outplayed Baylor before they opened the door for Baylor to come back. I would not worry too much about the road loses.
 
2daBank said:
Dog doesn’t always win but they sure do cover a ton in the army/AF rivalry! 7 out of last 9 I believe the dog has covered including the last 4. They all seemingly go under! This the lowest total in some time but 5 of the last 6 have stayed under this number (not the posted total for that game tho as the last 6 have played under).

I don’t see all that much reason why army is laying 5? I think they incredibly even, besides the cincy game army simply been smashing cup cakes. AF smashed their loan cup cake in navy who actually rated higher than all the teams army has beat. Both AF losses were to teams I think considerably better than the teams army been playing.

gotta take the points me thinks, I don’t like doing this in ncaa but might be a really good spot for a AF/under teaser?
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Army has had a soft schedule and the only quality team they have played was Cincy. Army has been a high consensus team all season (according to the sites i look at) and even when playing Cincy the majority took the points on ARMY. Army has been covering and that is why you are correct. If you are looking for a ML dog this is the one. AF for me as well.
 
Played this one....let's see if I can get a head start tonight with 1st half on Akron:

3, 4, & 5-teamer RRs...

NC State +317
San Jose State +286
Arizona State +317
South Carolina +281
Akron +531 for 1st Half
Risking $16.00 (16 parlays at $1.00) To Win $4,331.11

BOLTA!!
 
s--k said:
Agree!



Agree!



TT did have a fumble return TD vs WVU. Who was their other road game....Ok St...I'd have to look back in that one, but I think WV failed to score on some decent drives or settled for FGs. After I looked at the WV-OK St box score, it led me to want to back WV vs Baylor the following week. Which did go to OT, but I felt like WV vastly outplayed Baylor before they opened the door for Baylor to come back. I would not worry too much about the road loses.
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yea it was okie lite, I wanna say they only scored 10 but again box score kinda said it should have been higher. I’m with ya I’m not overly concerned especially since the away team been winning this matchup going back last several years so can’t imagine it be a problem for wvu. I really like them, I’m a sucker for defense and in a conference only a few teams play it even more so! I laid off wvu when they went to Ttech just cause It had a bad feel to it, just the line and perception didn’t seem right, plus they were favs which I’m always quicker to pass on, lol.
 
spottie2935 said:
Army has had a soft schedule and the only quality team they have played was Cincy. Army has been a high consensus team all season (according to the sites i look at) and even when playing Cincy the majority took the points on ARMY. Army has been covering and that is why you are correct. If you are looking for a ML dog this is the one. AF for me as well.
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I like being correct, I’m never so confident as to say so before they play tho! Lol. Think I recall trying to talk some ppl off army when they played cincy, but alas I didn’t play cincy either cause laying dd not my cup of tea. Good chance I might have cashed a under In that one but would have to go back and look to say for sure, was def my kinda total so I probably did.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Just heard the Boise St QB is questionable against BYU. Didn't get any details beyond the fact he is officially listed as questionable
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Bachmeier didn’t make the trip to Air Force on Saturday, and Boise State coach Bryan Harsin wouldn’t say Tuesday if Bachmeier or graduate transfer Jack Sears will start against the Cougars. The Broncos have not said why Bachmeier missed the game, but they did say Saturday that one player was out because he tested positive for COVID-19. Starting safety JL Skinner also missed the game for an undisclosed reason.

“This is a crazy year,” Harsin told reporters Tuesday morning. “The best way for us to stay consistent is to make sure those (injuries) that are season ending are going to be mentioned and the guys that aren’t, we’ll see where we’re at, at the end of the week.”


 
i'm in the miami fl is overrated camp and am looking to fade - nc state ? definately would with the o'leary kid. Different team with the other kid

how bout arizona over utah ? utah has lost their entire defense and their offense is never great.

temple played like crap last week but they outgained memphis the week before
 
EL CAPO said:
i'm in the miami fl is overrated camp and am looking to fade - nc state ? definately would with the o'leary kid. Different team with the other kid

how bout arizona over utah ? utah has lost their entire defense and their offense is never great.

temple played like crap last week but they outgained memphis the week before
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There is a Philly Inquirer story about the condition covid has left Temple in. And Russo is hurt. Not sure if he could or would play this week. Quoting excerpt:


"The Owls had far more problems on the injury front than just at quarterback. Besides Russo, the other players from the two-deep depth chart who didn’t play because of injury included right guard Adam Klein; linebackers Isaiah Graham-Mobley, Yvandy Rigby, and Audley Isaacs; and tight end Darius Pittman.

Temple also has 13 players in COVID protocol. Players from the two-deep depth chart include: receiver Jose Barbon; cornerback Elijah Clark; tight end David Martin-Robinson; and offensive lineman Wisdom Quarshie.

With all these players missing, the AAC announced Friday that the game with SMU, originally scheduled for Thursday night, would be played Saturday at noon at Lincoln Financial Field. Temple thought that having the extra days would give the Owls the best chance of playing next week."


Normally I'm like, covid, just bet who you like and try and not worry too much about the covid, but with Temple, I think it has had an impact but maybe some of those guys back this week?


I think Arizona could be something to look at, I have not done so yet. I actually think that Arz State which has been mentioned is a good one for multiple reasons which may get discussed at some point. I'm kinda crazy, but I was wondering about Stanford too. A lot of questions about Oregon. I guess there are about Stanford too, but Stanford is easy to overlook sometimes and I get a feeling we are overlooking them again this year. Davis Mills healthy at QB might make him the best QB in t the league. Debatable, again, too easy to discount, when healthy he is good.
 
EL CAPO said:
i'm in the miami fl is overrated camp and am looking to fade - nc state ? definately would with the o'leary kid. Different team with the other kid

how bout arizona over utah ? utah has lost their entire defense and their offense is never great.

temple played like crap last week but they outgained memphis the week before
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I would love ncst with Leary, really a bummer cause that was one my early teams I was doing well with. I like their play calling and design, like couple their running backs, but I dunno bout those other QBs? I didn’t watch any the unc game without him last week where they played both guys who threw 3 picks combined, that not good vs the canes although they not turning teams over like some years past. Problem is the run game on its own isn’t good enough and not sure anyone gonna respect the passing game enough for them to succeed on the ground? They sure didn’t last week. The Hockman kid started the year but was benched by Game 2. I assume he gonna start but I dunno. It a stay away for me cause I don’t like canes enough to lay that, I think they lucked out against Pitt having to play a backup QB as well.


Pretty sure I’m gonna be on both Arizona schools in the pac-12, I know I’m on asu. I’m close on zona, looks like be some showers during game and I still need to look closer at the wildcats but just on what yiu said bout utes losing all that d makes the points intriguing for sure.

Temple another team that lost their qb before last weeks game and is out for this one. They tried 2 different ones last week but clearly this offense was considerably worse without Russo even tho he been bit a turnover machine he also moved the chains. I have to read up on the 2 QBs they played last week against Tulane before even considering.
 
Beat me to it!! Lol. I saw on injury report Russo would be out this week. I didn’t even notice all the Covid questionable’s below that! I see a tight end, couple linebackers, Oline, corner, and wr all still listed with illness. Ouch
 
Here are my 10 "Beer Money" plays for fun that I have locked in at BOL for $10 each...


Miami Florida VS NC State
State+305
Risk 10.00 To Win 30.50
Liberty VS Virginia Tech
Liberty+460
Risk 10.00 To Win 46.00
West Virginia VS Texas
Virginia+200
Risk 10.00 To Win 20.00
Boston College VS Syracuse
Syracuse+430
Risk 10.00 To Win 43.00
Houston VS Cincinnati
Houston+395
Risk 10.00 To Win 39.50
Minnesota VS Illinois
Illinois+215
Risk 10.00 To Win 21.50
Fresno State VS UNLV
UNLV+335
Risk 10.00 To Win 33.50
Oklahoma State VS Kansas State
State+360
Risk 10.00 To Win 36.00
Texas A&M VS South Carolina
Carolina+280
Risk 10.00 To Win 28.00
Texas Tech VS TCU
Tech+270
Risk 10.00 To Win 27.00
 
FYI - I was going to play Navy but since that one was canceled, I decided to go with Texas Tech instead, as I figure that games between the Big12 mid-tier teams are pretty much a toss up each week, so why not go with them and WVU as hopefully 1 out of those 2 will hit at positive money.

p.s. Sorry for the bad copy and paste above as I didn't realize it would come out like that, but hopefully it isn't too hard to read.
 
carolinablue said:
FYI - I was going to play Navy but since that one was canceled, I decided to go with Texas Tech instead, as I figure that games between the Big12 mid-tier teams are pretty much a toss up each week, so why not go with them and WVU as hopefully 1 out of those 2 will hit at positive money.

p.s. Sorry for the bad copy and paste above as I didn't realize it would come out like that, but hopefully it isn't too hard to read.
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I like wvu and have kinda went back and forth with ttech on whether I want to play them, I don’t think I’ll be on the ml but I could def see myself taking the points and certainly wouldn’t shock me if they won.

navy/tulsa cancelled? Shit I havnt even heard that yet.
 
s--k said:
Temple also has 13 players in COVID protocol. Players from the two-deep depth chart include: receiver Jose Barbon; cornerback Elijah Clark; tight end David Martin-Robinson; and offensive lineman Wisdom Quarshie.
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Temple is on auto fade
 
Another one....added UNLV.

3, 4, & 5-teamer RRS....

NC State +311
San Jose State +322
Baylor +418
Arizona State +317
UNLV +337
Risking $16.00 (16 parlays at $1.00) To Win $4,343.48

BOLTA!!

:watchingsports:
 
Adding my final one....3, 4, & 5-teamer RRs:


Syracuse +454
Baylor +418
Arizona State +327
UNLV +327
Kansas State +418
Risking $17.92 (16 parlays at $1.12) To Win $7,456.25

Let's win some cash today boyzzz!!

BOLTA!!
 
JROCK1966 said:
How close was this one? Shoulda woulda coulda!!

:bigcry:

Getting over it and moving on.....
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That sucks. But I think you can take some satisfaction in the fact that you identified some really good targets. As opposed to having them get blown out noncompete, when you're close you're mad and at the same time they gave you a shot. All you can ask for is a shot.
 
West Virginia would have hit had they not gotten robbed on a PI (non) call in the end zone very late in the game.
 
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