Week 10 ML Dogs

Week 8 – 14 upsets

Week 9 - 17 upsets

556 games played, 110 upsets – 19.78% have been upsets*
*lines right around zero can lead to different results, for instance, the season log I am using shows Arizona St as a favorite vs Washington St and Wake Forest as a favorite vs FSU - but my line source show both as dogs. So there could be some variation in the actual number. For consistency in the count I’m going off of the Northcoast Sports log.

Biggest upsets (odds from scoresandodds.com):

10/19 – Illinois +2222 (Wisconsin)
9/14 - Citadel +1500 VegasInsider (Georgia Tech)
10/12 - Bowling Green +1358 (Toledo)
10/26 – Kansas State +1150 (Oklahoma)
8/31 - Georgia State +1150 (Tennessee)
10/19 – Vanderbilt +1011 (Mizzou)
10/12 - South Carolina +837 (Georgia)
9/13 - Kansas +711 (Boston College)
9/21 - UCLA +679 (Washington State)
9/21 - San Jose +664 (Arkansas)
10/12 - UNLV +534 (Vanderbilt)
8/31 - Wyoming +533 (Mizzou)

Best Teams:
Georgia State +1150, +199, +145, +150

BYU +144, +188,+215
Kansas State +226,+164, +1150
Western Kentucky +278, +148, +184
Baylor and Miami, Oh would have 3, but the log source shows them as 3 upset wins, the spread source shows them as just 2.
 
One that has my interest is Arkansas home vs Miss St. Have to look into it further, but on the surface I like this because I have pretty much faded Miss St all year. I might be a little concerned from that perspective in that they appeared to play one of their better games at aTm last week...so maybe they are getting better? Kind of hard for me to believe though.
 
Vanderbilt draws some interest too. It requires me to forget a lot of what I've see out of them.

And SMU can win. Although I pretty much think Memphis can lose almost weekly.

Hard to count on Boise dropping 2 straight, and they're off a bye. But maybe San Jose can compete. High number.

Slim pickings this week from my view trying to find larger odds ones.

Nothing indicates Army should beat Air Force but in those kind of games, you know, anything could happen.
 
s--k said:
One that has my interest is Arkansas home vs Miss St. Have to look into it further, but on the surface I like this because I have pretty much faded Miss St all year. I might be a little concerned from that perspective in that they appeared to play one of their better games at aTm last week...so maybe they are getting better? Kind of hard for me to believe though.
Click to expand...

I feel you on this, but Arkansas is really bad. Neck and neck with Rutgers for worst P5 team
 
UNLV @ Colorado State: I did find one that looks like a gem. UNLV makes my trend this week (pic 2) for away dogs and both teams having negative turnovers. In addition, in pic 1, the home team is 1-12-1 ATS & 7-7 SU where both teams are coming off losing seasons, opponent had a home loss last game, and home team is coming home off a home win which was their 2nd road game in a row. Either way you shake it, Colorado State is in a bad spot this Saturday.

csu-unlv.jpg

csu-unlv2.jpg
 
1st time thru possibilities....

Georgia Southern
UNLV
Akron (yikes!)
Kansas
Oregon State
Colorado
NC State
Arkansas

Yuck....it might get ugly this week.
 
Oregon St, Florida, NC State

Fascinated by the BYU/Utah St game. Pretty good time for the bye for BYU after that brutal front loaded schedule.

Schedule starts to ramp up for Baylor after this week. Nice to give them and WVU a bye last week for this Thursday game.
 
s--k said:
Vanderbilt draws some interest too. It requires me to forget a lot of what I've see out of them.

And SMU can win. Although I pretty much think Memphis can lose almost weekly.

Hard to count on Boise dropping 2 straight, and they're off a bye. But maybe San Jose can compete. High number.

Slim pickings this week from my view trying to find larger odds ones.

Nothing indicates Army should beat Air Force but in those kind of games, you know, anything could happen.
Click to expand...

Feel ya on slim Pickens. 1st glance my favorite play this week a damn fav! That never happens! lol. Think my tulsa boys ripe to get crushed this week tho. Can’t believe they had another one and couldn’t pull it out. Gotta be demoralizing at this point.

Purdue is interesting but obviously not that big a dog.

Maybe Florida, maybe Kansas.

I could see maybe beavers and possibly buffs.

Still those are just a td or less., really don’t see any big ones at 1st glance. Got some work to do still.
 
CPA-hole said:
Oregon St, Florida, NC State

Fascinated by the BYU/Utah St game. Pretty good time for the bye for BYU after that brutal front loaded schedule.

Schedule starts to ramp up for Baylor after this week. Nice to give them and WVU a bye last week for this Thursday game.
Click to expand...

Lean same way on those 3.,

i been riding Baylor a ton, gonna be interested to see how many points I get w them vs Sooners? Thinking they prob be small favs over horns at this point.
 
I have a "want to" on BYU - but I BYU is one of my least familiar teams I just haven't played their games much.

I do know believe Utah St is not who some people think they are. Erase any memory of 2018 Utah St, that is not who they are. Same QB, but the O has never caught up yet. D not bad. BYU? I have no off the cuff takes on the Mormons.

I have a soft spot for Oregon State. Would rather play the points if I do, but yeah.

Not much of an idea on Georgia - Florida except for me leaning dog, as per usual, but I won't play that ML

@JROCK1966 - listen you know you. I do what I do. Tahoelegend had history to back it up. Bad teams are just bad. Period. Now, we can select the right week to play the bad team and maybe it works out. But general rule of thumb, bad teams are bad and not worth our money. You have Akron on your list...really, think about it. I might be on Arkansas (although how bad are they compared to their opponent this week?). I mean I play some bad teams. You have to satisfy your own desires. But I think we can all learn from being very very selective when we play on bad teams. Your round robins are filled with bad teams. Only you know your comfort level with what you do and such. Having said that...no doubt...Akron gonna win this week. LOL.
 
My feeling on beavers at zona is that a last team who has the ball wins type game so +185 is pretty appealing. Obviously woulda love to have a td or more where it opened but that was gone fast. Just don’t see many stops in that game. Feels like a total coin flip which I love those + money coin flips! Lol.

I forgot to mention BYU, already grabbed them +3.5. Don’t see any reason why I wouldn’t at least look at money line? Feel like BYU the better team. Utah st is pretty awful both sides the ball on 3rd down.
 
Florida, VA Tech, USC, Colorado, Kansas all have my attention this week. Maybe a long shot parlay with Florida, va tech and Kansas
 
gsro said:
Florida, VA Tech, USC, Colorado, Kansas all have my attention this week. Maybe a long shot parlay with Florida, va tech and Kansas
Click to expand...

Why vtech? Just looking at a Nd letdown? Obviously it tough as shit to find 17+ point upsets just curious if you see something else with that one? Vtech seems so awful to me.
 
2daBank said:
Why vtech? Just looking at a Nd letdown? Obviously it tough as shit to find 17+ point upsets just curious if you see something else with that one? Vtech seems so awful to me.
Click to expand...
Just a letdown spot for me, after the loss to Michigan, not much to play for in terms of playoffs. 1 loss they might sneak in, 2 loss they are just out and these are still kids
 
JROCK1966 said:
Northwestern has won 9 of last 10 from Indiana....just saying.
Click to expand...

Mfers have scored what 28 or so points this season? Lol. Just saying.

This version of NW has freaking killed me all year, I can’t take it anymore. Which obviously means they prob double their season output and win, lol.
 
2daBank said:
Mfers have scored what 28 or so points this season? Lol. Just saying.

This version of NW has freaking killed me all year, I can’t take it anymore. Which obviously means they prob double their season output and win, lol.
Click to expand...
Bad spot for IU and I think this line is bait.
 
Two Utes said:
Sorry, just got home. GA SO has played teams better then App St and played them tough. Honestly, their effort at Minny was thedriving force.
Click to expand...

Good enough. I took a chance on them 1st H ,but came back with App St 2nd H (have to win by 4) - so I will yield nothing. If they can't win by 4 (which I highly doubt right now), I hope they lose straight up and you hit. App doesn't deserve to win anyway they way they are playing.
 
I'm struggling to find two more good dogs to play. I'd like +8 or higher. Houston has burned me twice, no play. I don't trust UNLV. Rice has burned me twice, they just keep blowing winnable games late. KSU ripe for an upset, KU worth a look. Army was mentioned but I just don't see it. I may take a flyer on SJST but Boise rarely loses to those middling MWC teams.

Thoughts?
 
Two Utes said:
I'm struggling to find two more good dogs to play. I'd like +8 or higher. Houston has burned me twice, no play. I don't trust UNLV. Rice has burned me twice, they just keep blowing winnable games late. KSU ripe for an upset, KU worth a look. Army was mentioned but I just don't see it. I may take a flyer on SJST but Boise rarely loses to those middling MWC teams.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
IU is in a bad spot if you can stomach NW.
 
This is just an awful schedule of games today. I did take a shot with Va Tech. I like fading teams that just had their championship hopes crushed and just don't see Notre Dame caring at all today.

Now Va Tech is definitely not a good team at all but they should be up for this game and I just expect Notre Dame to be extremely flat. ND will probably sneak it out but its definitely worth a shot.
 
gps_3 said:
I feel you on this, but Arkansas is really bad. Neck and neck with Rutgers for worst P5 team
Click to expand...

Could it be said this is a step down in competition this week for Hogs though? Bama and Auburn the last 2. Prior to that they only lost to UK 20-24 and aTm 27-31.

I was never a Ben Hicks fan while at SMU, but compared to what Starkel has done here this year, if Hicks is healthy, I think he is the better option.
 
There are a lot this week

New Mexico - Nevada is a bad football team. In the old days we used to call teams like this a bad favorite.
BYU- Tons of motivation both for bowl chances and revenge. Playing better ball than USU right now and off the bye, I believe. Better team getting points.
Colorado - Showed some life last week and are a bit healthier than previously. Might outscore UCLA
USC - Quality team at home (How do you get Urban with a win though?)
Virginia - Better team getting points
NW - Defense can potentially keep them in it for a few key plays to work out for them. Coaches are not giving them a chance though. How did I cash on these guys against Wisconsin again?
Oregon State - Shootout, good offense with zona in defensive transition
Arkansas - Miss State is dogshit.
TCU - need the game more, okst with some key injuries
UNLV - Playing good football right now. Deserve a reward win
Kansas - Super motivated, ksu in letdown spot
Florida - Pretty sure they are one of the top ten teams in the nation so upsetting uga not out of the question at all
Akron - Nelson is back. Most likely chance for a fbs win on the schedule. Game might be fixed. People are really lining up to back akron at this number??? Very suspicious line move imo and probably should not be ignored
Purdue - Both teams inconsistent
BC - Better team getting points (feels wrong though)
NCSU - unknown at qb, perhaps injection of life into practice and team? Pop Warner teams tackle better than ncsu did last week so maybe rebound?
Ga Southern - Because they already won, and they had no chance of winning.
 
Agree on a lot of those vk. In my pool it doesn't pay to take 5 or less though. I'm trying to hit triples or better at this point.

Agree that BYU wins that game, Romney looked better than I expected and usu offense has regressed.
 
Akron - Nelson is back. Most likely chance for a fbs win on the schedule. Game might be fixed. People are really lining up to back akron at this number??? Very suspicious line move imo and probably should not be ignored
Click to expand...

yeah, I'm the sucker taking BG. Line drop must be due to Nelson playing. He will have to do it all by himself, they have no OL and no skill players. Probably should just stay away.
 
brewers888 said:
This is just an awful schedule of games today. I did take a shot with Va Tech. I like fading teams that just had their championship hopes crushed and just don't see Notre Dame caring at all today.

Now Va Tech is definitely not a good team at all but they should be up for this game and I just expect Notre Dame to be extremely flat. ND will probably sneak it out but its definitely worth a shot.
Click to expand...

I played them too: I love them to cover, win prob a stretch but who knows? Irish pretty bad ats in November once they out of playoff contention.

Army was the other dd one I liked, would anyone be shocked if that game was close or they pulled it out?
 
I'm always game to back the Beavers.

One thing anyone backing them needs to come to terms with, and I'd like to hear anyone with opinions....the last two years Arizona has run for 442 and 534 yards in games vs Oregon St.

So, Oregon St is improved and has opportunities with their O vs Zona D. What then do we think will come of the Zona O vs Beaver D matchup?
 
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