***Week 10 Lex***

lean Titans, waiting till the half though. Said it before they played the Ravens I'm not sold on the Colts. I think the d is a little overrated and this game means more to the Titans. All this defensive talk and the line is 48.5? I just think tds will be scored tonight.
 
Thanks B.A.R.

small profit Thursday, knew i should have left the side alone. Onward




Bills thoughts


Arizona has scored over 30 in 4 straight games, playing 2 straight games totaling 65+. Bills off a 78 pt total and 2 straight overs. Linesmakers see all this and throw out a 54? It's since been bet up to 56, saw it as high as 57.

I expect everyone to be on the over in this game. Obviously I can see why but from a game planning pov it makes sense for both teams to try and win TOP. Zona runs well and the Bills biggest weakness is stopping the run. McDermott came with the best gameplan to beat the Hawks but I do not think he uses the same approach sunday. No way he wants his D out on the field getting tired out. Now Morse is cleared from concussion protocol, and there's a decent chance Cody Ford plays. First game where possibly all the starters are in on the oline. I think Singletary/Moss get way more touches this one, and I'd like to think the oline will win in the trenches. I think Feliciano finally getting back to his position full time will translate to some better numbers in the run game.

Defensively the Bills were great last week and finally forced turnovers. White is good to go on Dhop (one of the better matchups to watch on Sunday) imo a must for Buffalo. I haven't played the under yet as it's a scary wager that could easily flame out. I just think that we've reached a saturation point for overs in a game where both teams may look to run. Lean to the Bills to get it done as well just waiting on Hyde's status. The Cards have had a fairly easy schedule and the Bills are coming on, getting healthier, but still undervalued.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Thanks B.A.R.

small profit Thursday, knew i should have left the side alone. Onward




Bills thoughts


Arizona has scored over 30 in 4 straight games, playing 2 straight games totaling 65+. Bills off a 78 pt total and 2 straight overs. Linesmakers see all this and throw out a 54? It's since been bet up to 56, saw it as high as 57.

I expect everyone to be on the over in this game. Obviously I can see why but from a game planning pov it makes sense for both teams to try and win TOP. Zona runs well and the Bills biggest weakness is stopping the run. McDermott came with the best gameplan to beat the Hawks but I do not think he uses the same approach sunday. No way he wants his D out on the field getting tired out. Now Morse is cleared from concussion protocol, and there's a decent chance Cody Ford plays. First game where possibly all the starters are in on the oline. I think Singletary/Moss get way more touches this one, and I'd like to think the oline will win in the trenches. I think Feliciano finally getting back to his position full time will translate to some better numbers in the run game.

Defensively the Bills were great last week and finally forced turnovers. White is good to go on Dhop (one of the better matchups to watch on Sunday) imo a must for Buffalo. I haven't played the under yet as it's a scary wager that could easily flame out. I just think that we've reached a saturation point for overs in a game where both teams may look to run. Lean to the Bills to get it done as well just waiting on Hyde's status. The Cards have had a fairly easy schedule and the Bills are coming on, getting healthier, but still undervalued.
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know there's an under trend out there somewhere about teams who score 30pts 4 straight games
 
Gotta have balls of steal to play that under. I value your bills opinion more than mine but god that feels like a track meet sure to break out at some point. I dunno how both don’t hit 30? Kyler so hard to stop with way he running, I’d argue his legs far more dangerous than Russ.
 
2daBank said:
Gotta have balls of steal to play that under. I value your bills opinion more than mine but god that feels like a track meet sure to break out at some point. I dunno how both don’t hit 30? Kyler so hard to stop with way he running, I’d argue his legs far more dangerous than Russ.
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Bills have scored over 30 4x this season and allowed over 28 pts 3x this season. There has been a shift in identity for Buffalo this season for sure, but I do think this is one where they will look to run more. It could absolutely be a shootout, but so many things have to go right to hit this high total. I'd be willing to bet there is a huge % of wagers on the over in this one. Many look at the covid scratches defensively and think "now it's def going over". I tend to think this makes the Bills focus on a gameplan to keep the ball away from Zona. Murray hard to stop, but Allen is tough to bring down and can get those short yardage runs to keep the chains & clock moving.
 
Is the Pit/Cincy Under a weather play? Both teams with pretty good offenses and Pit’s defense has been underwhelming.
 
C-MAN said:
Is the Pit/Cincy Under a weather play? Both teams with pretty good offenses and Pit’s defense has been underwhelming.
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No I think the Steelers D comes with a strong gameplan for Burrows. I think this could be a 24-13 type game. Scary being on 2 unders these days but I think in both instances the gameplan may favor an under.
 
Def a huge advantage as Steelers #1 in sacks and Cincy one of the worst in the league in giving them up. Last week was a tough game for Pittsburgh being it’s third consecutive road game.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Bills have scored over 30 4x this season and allowed over 28 pts 3x this season. There has been a shift in identity for Buffalo this season for sure, but I do think this is one where they will look to run more. It could absolutely be a shootout, but so many things have to go right to hit this high total. I'd be willing to bet there is a huge % of wagers on the over in this one. Many look at the covid scratches defensively and think "now it's def going over". I tend to think this makes the Bills focus on a gameplan to keep the ball away from Zona. Murray hard to stop, but Allen is tough to bring down and can get those short yardage runs to keep the chains & clock moving.
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I really like both QBs. Again I trust your opinion on bills way more than mine but over be only way I’d play this (I’m not). I think that rams/Seattle total is silly high. Like I dunno how it basically same as this one? I think those 2 will have much tougher time hitting it than zona/bills which I think both gonna score 30, all I’m doing is loading up with bills and cards wrs in dfs as well as using Allen or Murray in most lineups (except a few with wentz, taking a shot. Lol)... thanks for taking the time and gl today
 
2daBank said:
I really like both QBs. Again I trust your opinion on bills way more than mine but over be only way I’d play this (I’m not). I think that rams/Seattle total is silly high. Like I dunno how it basically same as this one? I think those 2 will have much tougher time hitting it than zona/bills which I think both gonna score 30, all I’m doing is loading up with bills and cards wrs in dfs as well as using Allen or Murray in most lineups (except a few with wentz, taking a shot. Lol)... thanks for taking the time and gl today
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GL my man. I think John Brown is a nice dfs play for cheap. Also MOss all day
 
11-18 -9.85. Bills total just a disgustingly bad beat but if not for the Patriots wagers it would have been a total nightmare of a day. I still can't believe how the Bills lost that game.
 
Lexington 125 said:
11-18 -9.85. Bills total just a disgustingly bad beat but if not for the Patriots wagers it would have been a total nightmare of a day. I still can't believe how the Bills lost that game.
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bills losing was a horrible beat but how so on total? Over cashed when bills took the lead. Oh I see we had different numbers, I cashed over 55.5 with the bills td, I see you still had it till the Hail Mary, that sucks man, wish we both could have won that one.
 
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