xxDaJackaLxx
Speaker for the Dead
DET +1 @ ARI ??
<O></O>
I know Detroit is notoriously miserable on the road, but to be 6-2 and an underdog against a 3-5 Arizona? Surely, I must be missing something because I saw this line and started drooling. Here is what I've come up with:<O></O>
ARIZONA CARDINALS<O></O>
<ST1><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 /><st1:state w:st="[/IMG]<ST1
<ST1
<b">Arizona </st1:state></st1:state>has lost their last three, the last two of which were on the road. (At TB and At WAS) So now they are back home after a 17-10 loss to a tough <ST1><ST1>ampa</ST1> <ST1>Bay</ST1> defense. Are they hyped enough to win one at home against the rolling 6-2 Lions, who are 4-1 SU and ATS in last 5? Arizona has beat PIT and SEA at home. The PIT game was over a month ago and since then PIT has assumed the #1 defense in score against, total yards allowed and passing yards allowed, so I don't think ARI could duplicate that showing. But they are a different team at home...or are they?<O></O>
<B>ARI at Home:<O></O></B>
At home, the Cardinals offense is averaging only nine more yards a game compared to their season average (328::319) and only possessing the ball for an average of 90 more seconds. Their TO ratio at home is only one turn over less than their season average (-8::-9). So as a whole, they are turning the ball over slightly less and gaining a marginally greater number of yards. But, positionally, the Cards are a definitely a better team at home.
<st1:state w:st="on"></st1:state>
<st1:state w:st="on">Arizona</st1:state></ST1>’s QBs are completing 59% for 7.2yds/att compared to 54% for 6.5yds/att. Total pass yards a game, however, only improves by 2yds a game on avg. (234.6 up from 232.6) The TD to INT ratio is slightly skewed here because Rattay threw 3 INTs for 0 TDs when the Cards hosted <st1:city w:st="on"><ST1>Carolina</ST1></st1:city>. Still, ARI is throwing more INTs per TDs at home than their season avg. (1td/2int vs. 1td/1int)
<O>Edgerrin James is a much larger threat at home. He averages almost 20 more yards a game at home, with two additional carries and a higher per carry average (4.3yds/c::3.7yds/c) He scores one TD every home game, compared to 1 every 2 games on the season. His long is around season avg at 16yds. <O></O>
Fitzgerald, Boldin and Co. are also a greater threat at home. The receiving core averages 1.5 more receptions for an addition 20yds a game. At home the top 4 are getting 16.3 receptions for 207 yds, with Fitzgerald accounting for half of those numbers (7.66 receptions for 101yds vs. his 6.25 receptions for 92yds on the season.) Fitzgerald has not, however, caught a TD at home all season. Pope has caught one and Urban has caught one, meaning the receiving core catches less than one TD per game.
<O></O>
On defense, <ST1>Ariziona is forcing one fumble and 0.66 INTs a game. Their secondary has returned only 1 INT for a TD all season and averages less than one a game. Their sacks per game are on average with the season, 2.5 per game.
<O></O>Defensively, I think we can expect the same Arizona D that gives up 310 yards and 21 points a game. On offense, <st1:state w:st="on"><ST1>Arizona</ST1></st1:state> has the potential to play slightly better than their average 320yds and 17 points. Maybe 345yds and 24pts. IMO the added efficiency of being at home will give the Cards one or two extra shots at the endzone, resulting in points. ARI has scored 18 TDs this season and made 11 of 16 attempted FGs. <st1:city w:st="on"><ST1>Detroit's </ST1>less than solid defense will definitely help this cause.<O></O>
________________________________________________________________________
<B><O></O></B><ST1>
<st1:city w:st="on">DETROIT </st1:city></ST1>LIONS<O></O>
On the road, DET beat <st1:city w:st="on">Oakland</st1:city> early in the season and most recently Chicago<ST1> in Soldier Field (which has become increasingly easier to do). In between those winse, the Lions got thrashed by the up-and-down Philly Iggles and the overall unimpressive Redskins. In general, however, the Lions have won 4 of their last 5, including DEN and TB. Here is how the Motor-city Megacats have performed on the road.
<st1:city w:st="on"></st1:city>
<st1:city w:st="on"><B>Detroit</B></st1:city><B> on the Road:<O></O></B>
The <ST1>Detroit offense is getting only 6yds less per game with virtually identical times of possession. Their TO ratio on the road is +2 vs. +8 on the season. They are forcing fewer TOs and giving up more. The passing game also suffers slightly while away.
<O></O>When traveling, Kitna is completing 66% of his passes at 7.6yds an attempt. This percentage is insignificantly smaller than his season average of 67% and 7.9yds. He is also throwing an avg of three more passes for an additional 27yds per game. This number is misleading, however, because <st1:city w:st="on"><ST1>Detroit</ST1> trailed both PHI and WAS for the entirety of both games. Kitna’s road TD per game average is the same at 1.25 with his likelihood to throw an INT increased by 60%. 5 of his 6 INTs this season came on the road and Kitna has thrown at least 1 INT in 3 out of 4 road games.<O></O>
On the ground, Kevin Jones and Tatum Bell actually play better on the road than their season averages. They are taking 15 carries a game for roughly 70yds, 4.6 a carry. Of their combined 5 rushing TDs, 3 were on the road. <O></O>
The Lions’ receiving core averages 1 more reception a game for an additional 27yds. They have caught at least one TD in every road game. It is hard to gauge their play while away since in week 3 R. Williams had 204 yards and in week 5 he was held to 36. Both of those games the Lions lost.
<O></O>Defensively, <st1:city w:st="on"><ST1>Detroit</ST1> is averaging one less sack a game (2::3) on the road. Their INTs per game is right in line with their season average at 1.5 and are forcing roughly two fumbles a game.
<O>
I think we can expect <st1:city w:st="on"><ST1>Detroit</ST1> to score right around their 25 usual points, with maybe another 7 from a TO. <O></O>
________________________________________________________________________
<O></O>
<B>Match-ups:</B>
On paper, <st1:state w:st="on"><ST1>Arizona</ST1> has the advantage in a queit a few places.<O></O>
OFFENSE
<O></O><ST1><st1:state w:st="on">ARIZONA</st1:state></ST1> v. <ST1><st1:city w:st="on">DETROIT </st1:city></ST1>
17th ranked avg score v. 23rd ranked score against<O></O>
19th ranked total yds v. 28th total yards allowed<O></O></st1:state></st1:city></O></st1:city></st1:city></ST1></ST1></st1:city></ST1></O></st1:state></ST1><ST1><st1:state w:st="[/IMG]<ST1http://cappingthegame.com/forum/">[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<O>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<ST1>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<st1:city w:st="on">[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=royalblue][COLOR=royalblue][COLOR=royalblue][COLOR=black]<ST1>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<ST1>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<st1:city w:st="on">[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<st1:city w:st="on"><O><st1:city w:st="on">[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<st1:state w:st="on">[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]
[COLOR=#00010a]13th ranked pass yds v. 30th pass yards allowed[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black]<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black]
[COLOR=#00010a][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black]DEFENSE<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#00010a]
[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black][I][U]ARIZONA[/U][/I][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:state>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][I][U] v. <ST1><st1:city w:st="on">DETROIT </st1:city></ST1>[/U][/I]<ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]
[COLOR=black][COLOR=black]9th ranked yds allowed v. 12th ranked total yard[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=black]</ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:city></O></st1:city>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:city>[/COLOR][/COLOR]</ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:city>[/COLOR][/COLOR]</ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:state></ST1><ST1><st1:state w:st="<ST1http://cappingthegame.com/forum/">[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<O>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<ST1>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<st1:city w:st="on">[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=royalblue][COLOR=royalblue][COLOR=royalblue][COLOR=black]<ST1>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<ST1>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<st1:city w:st="on">[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<st1:city w:st="on"><O><st1:city w:st="on">[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<ST1>[COLOR=black]<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]
[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black]18th ranked run yds allowed v. 21st ranked rushing yards<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#00010a]
[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black]7th ranked pass yds allowed v. 9th pass yards per game<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#00010a]
[COLOR=#00010a]<O></O><st1:city w:st="on"><ST1>Detroit</ST1> also has a its advantage([I]s[/I]), not all immediately obvious.[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#00010a]<O></O>[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#00010a][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black]OFFENSE<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#00010a]
[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black]<st1:city w:st="on">[I][U]DETROIT v. ARIZONA<ST1></ST1>[/U][/I]<ST1></ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#00010a]
[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black]6th ranked avg score v. 19th ranked score against.[COLOR=black]<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black]
[COLOR=#00010a]<st1:city w:st="on"></st1:city>[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#00010a]<st1:city w:st="on">[COLOR=black]Detroit[/COLOR]</st1:city>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black] forces significantly more turn overs than <st1:state w:st="on">Arizona</st1:state>, and <st1:state w:st="on"><ST1>Arizona </ST1>gives up significantly more. I’ve been told a dozen times that you can’t cap for TOs. In most cases, I agree. But here I think there is a pretty apparent trend: <ST1>Detroit will get its 2 road sacks, nab its 1.5 road INTs and force its 2 fumbles. <st1:state w:st="on"><ST1>Arizona</ST1> loses at least one fumble a game at home, and in one game let three hit the ground. I’ll take as a given that Kitna gives the ARI secondary a freebee INT, but IMO it probably wont turn into 6.<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]
[COLOR=black]<B>[COLOR=black]My Take:<O></O>[/COLOR]</B>[/COLOR][COLOR=black]
[COLOR=black][COLOR=black]I can see a close game here in theory. 1pt ATS is a pretty accurate line in ARI. Neutral ground or in DET, I’d take DET -4.5 or more. <st1:city w:st="on">Detroit</st1:city>’s D sucks and <st1:state w:st="on"><ST1>Arizona</ST1> has an OK offense. <st1:state w:st="on">Arizona</st1:state>’s D is only really strong against the pass, which is <st1:city w:st="on"><ST1>Detroit</ST1>’s only real strength too. If this game is in fact a coin flip, I lean for the team who is scoring 25 a game, is 6-2 (2-2 on the road), and 4-1 SU in their last 5. <st1:state w:st="on"><ST1>Arizona </ST1>is scoring 17 a game, is 3-5 (2-1 at home) and 2-3 SU in their last 5. If it goes to a shoot out, can Arizona keep up? <O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]
[COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<B>Prediction<O></O></B>[COLOR=black]<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]
[COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<B>[COLOR=black]Det[/COLOR]</B>[COLOR=royalblue] <B>36</B>[COLOR=black],[/COLOR]<B> [COLOR=darkred][COLOR=black]Ari[/COLOR] [/COLOR]</B>[COLOR=darkred]<B>27</B>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=royalblue]
[COLOR=darkred][COLOR=black]Also like INDY at SD Sunday Night. Will probably put a write-up out on Thursday.<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:state></st1:city></st1:state>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:state></ST1></st1:state>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:city>[/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:city>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:city></O></st1:city>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:city>[/COLOR][/COLOR]</ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:city>[/COLOR][/COLOR]</ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:state></ST1>
<O></O>
I know Detroit is notoriously miserable on the road, but to be 6-2 and an underdog against a 3-5 Arizona? Surely, I must be missing something because I saw this line and started drooling. Here is what I've come up with:<O></O>
ARIZONA CARDINALS<O></O>
<ST1><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 /><st1:state w:st="[/IMG]<ST1
<B>ARI at Home:<O></O></B>
At home, the Cardinals offense is averaging only nine more yards a game compared to their season average (328::319) and only possessing the ball for an average of 90 more seconds. Their TO ratio at home is only one turn over less than their season average (-8::-9). So as a whole, they are turning the ball over slightly less and gaining a marginally greater number of yards. But, positionally, the Cards are a definitely a better team at home.
<st1:state w:st="on"></st1:state>
<st1:state w:st="on">Arizona</st1:state></ST1>’s QBs are completing 59% for 7.2yds/att compared to 54% for 6.5yds/att. Total pass yards a game, however, only improves by 2yds a game on avg. (234.6 up from 232.6) The TD to INT ratio is slightly skewed here because Rattay threw 3 INTs for 0 TDs when the Cards hosted <st1:city w:st="on"><ST1>Carolina</ST1></st1:city>. Still, ARI is throwing more INTs per TDs at home than their season avg. (1td/2int vs. 1td/1int)
<O>Edgerrin James is a much larger threat at home. He averages almost 20 more yards a game at home, with two additional carries and a higher per carry average (4.3yds/c::3.7yds/c) He scores one TD every home game, compared to 1 every 2 games on the season. His long is around season avg at 16yds. <O></O>
Fitzgerald, Boldin and Co. are also a greater threat at home. The receiving core averages 1.5 more receptions for an addition 20yds a game. At home the top 4 are getting 16.3 receptions for 207 yds, with Fitzgerald accounting for half of those numbers (7.66 receptions for 101yds vs. his 6.25 receptions for 92yds on the season.) Fitzgerald has not, however, caught a TD at home all season. Pope has caught one and Urban has caught one, meaning the receiving core catches less than one TD per game.
<O></O>
On defense, <ST1>Ariziona is forcing one fumble and 0.66 INTs a game. Their secondary has returned only 1 INT for a TD all season and averages less than one a game. Their sacks per game are on average with the season, 2.5 per game.
<O></O>Defensively, I think we can expect the same Arizona D that gives up 310 yards and 21 points a game. On offense, <st1:state w:st="on"><ST1>Arizona</ST1></st1:state> has the potential to play slightly better than their average 320yds and 17 points. Maybe 345yds and 24pts. IMO the added efficiency of being at home will give the Cards one or two extra shots at the endzone, resulting in points. ARI has scored 18 TDs this season and made 11 of 16 attempted FGs. <st1:city w:st="on"><ST1>Detroit's </ST1>less than solid defense will definitely help this cause.<O></O>
________________________________________________________________________
<B><O></O></B><ST1>
<st1:city w:st="on">DETROIT </st1:city></ST1>LIONS<O></O>
On the road, DET beat <st1:city w:st="on">Oakland</st1:city> early in the season and most recently Chicago<ST1> in Soldier Field (which has become increasingly easier to do). In between those winse, the Lions got thrashed by the up-and-down Philly Iggles and the overall unimpressive Redskins. In general, however, the Lions have won 4 of their last 5, including DEN and TB. Here is how the Motor-city Megacats have performed on the road.
<st1:city w:st="on"></st1:city>
<st1:city w:st="on"><B>Detroit</B></st1:city><B> on the Road:<O></O></B>
The <ST1>Detroit offense is getting only 6yds less per game with virtually identical times of possession. Their TO ratio on the road is +2 vs. +8 on the season. They are forcing fewer TOs and giving up more. The passing game also suffers slightly while away.
<O></O>When traveling, Kitna is completing 66% of his passes at 7.6yds an attempt. This percentage is insignificantly smaller than his season average of 67% and 7.9yds. He is also throwing an avg of three more passes for an additional 27yds per game. This number is misleading, however, because <st1:city w:st="on"><ST1>Detroit</ST1> trailed both PHI and WAS for the entirety of both games. Kitna’s road TD per game average is the same at 1.25 with his likelihood to throw an INT increased by 60%. 5 of his 6 INTs this season came on the road and Kitna has thrown at least 1 INT in 3 out of 4 road games.<O></O>
On the ground, Kevin Jones and Tatum Bell actually play better on the road than their season averages. They are taking 15 carries a game for roughly 70yds, 4.6 a carry. Of their combined 5 rushing TDs, 3 were on the road. <O></O>
The Lions’ receiving core averages 1 more reception a game for an additional 27yds. They have caught at least one TD in every road game. It is hard to gauge their play while away since in week 3 R. Williams had 204 yards and in week 5 he was held to 36. Both of those games the Lions lost.
<O></O>Defensively, <st1:city w:st="on"><ST1>Detroit</ST1> is averaging one less sack a game (2::3) on the road. Their INTs per game is right in line with their season average at 1.5 and are forcing roughly two fumbles a game.
<O>
I think we can expect <st1:city w:st="on"><ST1>Detroit</ST1> to score right around their 25 usual points, with maybe another 7 from a TO. <O></O>
________________________________________________________________________
<O></O>
<B>Match-ups:</B>
On paper, <st1:state w:st="on"><ST1>Arizona</ST1> has the advantage in a queit a few places.<O></O>
OFFENSE
<O></O><ST1><st1:state w:st="on">ARIZONA</st1:state></ST1> v. <ST1><st1:city w:st="on">DETROIT </st1:city></ST1>
17th ranked avg score v. 23rd ranked score against<O></O>
19th ranked total yds v. 28th total yards allowed<O></O></st1:state></st1:city></O></st1:city></st1:city></ST1></ST1></st1:city></ST1></O></st1:state></ST1><ST1><st1:state w:st="[/IMG]<ST1http://cappingthegame.com/forum/">[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<O>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<ST1>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<st1:city w:st="on">[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=royalblue][COLOR=royalblue][COLOR=royalblue][COLOR=black]<ST1>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<ST1>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<st1:city w:st="on">[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<st1:city w:st="on"><O><st1:city w:st="on">[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<st1:state w:st="on">[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]
[COLOR=#00010a]13th ranked pass yds v. 30th pass yards allowed[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black]<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black]
[COLOR=#00010a][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black]DEFENSE<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#00010a]
[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black][I][U]ARIZONA[/U][/I][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:state>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][I][U] v. <ST1><st1:city w:st="on">DETROIT </st1:city></ST1>[/U][/I]<ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]
[COLOR=black][COLOR=black]9th ranked yds allowed v. 12th ranked total yard[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=black]</ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:city></O></st1:city>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:city>[/COLOR][/COLOR]</ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:city>[/COLOR][/COLOR]</ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:state></ST1><ST1><st1:state w:st="<ST1http://cappingthegame.com/forum/">[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<O>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<ST1>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<st1:city w:st="on">[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=royalblue][COLOR=royalblue][COLOR=royalblue][COLOR=black]<ST1>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<ST1>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<st1:city w:st="on">[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<st1:city w:st="on"><O><st1:city w:st="on">[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<ST1>[COLOR=black]<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]
[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black]18th ranked run yds allowed v. 21st ranked rushing yards<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#00010a]
[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black]7th ranked pass yds allowed v. 9th pass yards per game<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#00010a]
[COLOR=#00010a]<O></O><st1:city w:st="on"><ST1>Detroit</ST1> also has a its advantage([I]s[/I]), not all immediately obvious.[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#00010a]<O></O>[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#00010a][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black]OFFENSE<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#00010a]
[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black]<st1:city w:st="on">[I][U]DETROIT v. ARIZONA<ST1></ST1>[/U][/I]<ST1></ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#00010a]
[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black]6th ranked avg score v. 19th ranked score against.[COLOR=black]<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black]
[COLOR=#00010a]<st1:city w:st="on"></st1:city>[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#00010a]<st1:city w:st="on">[COLOR=black]Detroit[/COLOR]</st1:city>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black] forces significantly more turn overs than <st1:state w:st="on">Arizona</st1:state>, and <st1:state w:st="on"><ST1>Arizona </ST1>gives up significantly more. I’ve been told a dozen times that you can’t cap for TOs. In most cases, I agree. But here I think there is a pretty apparent trend: <ST1>Detroit will get its 2 road sacks, nab its 1.5 road INTs and force its 2 fumbles. <st1:state w:st="on"><ST1>Arizona</ST1> loses at least one fumble a game at home, and in one game let three hit the ground. I’ll take as a given that Kitna gives the ARI secondary a freebee INT, but IMO it probably wont turn into 6.<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]
[COLOR=black]<B>[COLOR=black]My Take:<O></O>[/COLOR]</B>[/COLOR][COLOR=black]
[COLOR=black][COLOR=black]I can see a close game here in theory. 1pt ATS is a pretty accurate line in ARI. Neutral ground or in DET, I’d take DET -4.5 or more. <st1:city w:st="on">Detroit</st1:city>’s D sucks and <st1:state w:st="on"><ST1>Arizona</ST1> has an OK offense. <st1:state w:st="on">Arizona</st1:state>’s D is only really strong against the pass, which is <st1:city w:st="on"><ST1>Detroit</ST1>’s only real strength too. If this game is in fact a coin flip, I lean for the team who is scoring 25 a game, is 6-2 (2-2 on the road), and 4-1 SU in their last 5. <st1:state w:st="on"><ST1>Arizona </ST1>is scoring 17 a game, is 3-5 (2-1 at home) and 2-3 SU in their last 5. If it goes to a shoot out, can Arizona keep up? <O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]
[COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<B>Prediction<O></O></B>[COLOR=black]<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]
[COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<B>[COLOR=black]Det[/COLOR]</B>[COLOR=royalblue] <B>36</B>[COLOR=black],[/COLOR]<B> [COLOR=darkred][COLOR=black]Ari[/COLOR] [/COLOR]</B>[COLOR=darkred]<B>27</B>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=royalblue]
[COLOR=darkred][COLOR=black]Also like INDY at SD Sunday Night. Will probably put a write-up out on Thursday.<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:state></st1:city></st1:state>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:state></ST1></st1:state>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:city>[/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:city>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:city></O></st1:city>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:city>[/COLOR][/COLOR]</ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:city>[/COLOR][/COLOR]</ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:state></ST1>
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