Week 10: Det+1 @ Ari

xxDaJackaLxx

Speaker for the Dead
DET +1 @ ARI ??
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I know Detroit is notoriously miserable on the road, but to be 6-2 and an underdog against a 3-5 Arizona? Surely, I must be missing something because I saw this line and started drooling. Here is what I've come up with:<O></O>

ARIZONA CARDINALS<O></O>
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<b">Arizona </st1:state></st1:state>has lost their last three, the last two of which were on the road. (At TB and At WAS) So now they are back home after a 17-10 loss to a tough <ST1><ST1>ampa</ST1> <ST1>Bay</ST1> defense. Are they hyped enough to win one at home against the rolling 6-2 Lions, who are 4-1 SU and ATS in last 5? Arizona has beat PIT and SEA at home. The PIT game was over a month ago and since then PIT has assumed the #1 defense in score against, total yards allowed and passing yards allowed, so I don't think ARI could duplicate that showing. But they are a different team at home...or are they?<O></O>

<B>ARI at Home:<O></O></B>
At home, the Cardinals offense is averaging only nine more yards a game compared to their season average (328::319) and only possessing the ball for an average of 90 more seconds. Their TO ratio at home is only one turn over less than their season average (-8::-9). So as a whole, they are turning the ball over slightly less and gaining a marginally greater number of yards. But, positionally, the Cards are a definitely a better team at home.
<st1:state w:st="on"></st1:state>
<st1:state w:st="on">Arizona</st1:state>
</ST1>’s QBs are completing 59% for 7.2yds/att compared to 54% for 6.5yds/att. Total pass yards a game, however, only improves by 2yds a game on avg. (234.6 up from 232.6) The TD to INT ratio is slightly skewed here because Rattay threw 3 INTs for 0 TDs when the Cards hosted <st1:city w:st="on"><ST1>Carolina</ST1></st1:city>. Still, ARI is throwing more INTs per TDs at home than their season avg. (1td/2int vs. 1td/1int)

<O>Edgerrin James is a much larger threat at home. He averages almost 20 more yards a game at home, with two additional carries and a higher per carry average (4.3yds/c::3.7yds/c) He scores one TD every home game, compared to 1 every 2 games on the season. His long is around season avg at 16yds. <O></O>

Fitzgerald, Boldin and Co. are also a greater threat at home. The receiving core averages 1.5 more receptions for an addition 20yds a game. At home the top 4 are getting 16.3 receptions for 207 yds, with Fitzgerald accounting for half of those numbers (7.66 receptions for 101yds vs. his 6.25 receptions for 92yds on the season.) Fitzgerald has not, however, caught a TD at home all season. Pope has caught one and Urban has caught one, meaning the receiving core catches less than one TD per game.
<O></O>
On defense, <ST1>Ariziona is forcing one fumble and 0.66 INTs a game. Their secondary has returned only 1 INT for a TD all season and averages less than one a game. Their sacks per game are on average with the season, 2.5 per game.

<O></O>Defensively, I think we can expect the same Arizona D that gives up 310 yards and 21 points a game. On offense, <st1:state w:st="on"><ST1>Arizona</ST1></st1:state> has the potential to play slightly better than their average 320yds and 17 points. Maybe 345yds and 24pts. IMO the added efficiency of being at home will give the Cards one or two extra shots at the endzone, resulting in points. ARI has scored 18 TDs this season and made 11 of 16 attempted FGs. <st1:city w:st="on"><ST1>Detroit's </ST1>less than solid defense will definitely help this cause.<O></O>
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<st1:city w:st="on">DETROIT </st1:city></ST1>LIONS<O></O>
On the road, DET beat <st1:city w:st="on">Oakland</st1:city> early in the season and most recently Chicago<ST1> in Soldier Field (which has become increasingly easier to do). In between those winse, the Lions got thrashed by the up-and-down Philly Iggles and the overall unimpressive Redskins. In general, however, the Lions have won 4 of their last 5, including DEN and TB. Here is how the Motor-city Megacats have performed on the road.
<st1:city w:st="on"></st1:city>
<st1:city w:st="on"><B>Detroit</B></st1:city><B> on the Road:<O></O></B>
The <ST1>Detroit offense is getting only 6yds less per game with virtually identical times of possession. Their TO ratio on the road is +2 vs. +8 on the season. They are forcing fewer TOs and giving up more. The passing game also suffers slightly while away.

<O></O>When traveling, Kitna is completing 66% of his passes at 7.6yds an attempt. This percentage is insignificantly smaller than his season average of 67% and 7.9yds. He is also throwing an avg of three more passes for an additional 27yds per game. This number is misleading, however, because <st1:city w:st="on"><ST1>Detroit</ST1> trailed both PHI and WAS for the entirety of both games. Kitna’s road TD per game average is the same at 1.25 with his likelihood to throw an INT increased by 60%. 5 of his 6 INTs this season came on the road and Kitna has thrown at least 1 INT in 3 out of 4 road games.<O></O>

On the ground, Kevin Jones and Tatum Bell actually play better on the road than their season averages. They are taking 15 carries a game for roughly 70yds, 4.6 a carry. Of their combined 5 rushing TDs, 3 were on the road. <O></O>

The Lions’ receiving core averages 1 more reception a game for an additional 27yds. They have caught at least one TD in every road game. It is hard to gauge their play while away since in week 3 R. Williams had 204 yards and in week 5 he was held to 36. Both of those games the Lions lost.

<O></O>Defensively, <st1:city w:st="on"><ST1>Detroit</ST1> is averaging one less sack a game (2::3) on the road. Their INTs per game is right in line with their season average at 1.5 and are forcing roughly two fumbles a game.
<O>
I think we can expect <st1:city w:st="on"><ST1>Detroit</ST1> to score right around their 25 usual points, with maybe another 7 from a TO. <O></O>
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<B>Match-ups:</B>

On paper, <st1:state w:st="on"><ST1>Arizona</ST1> has the advantage in a queit a few places.<O></O>

OFFENSE
<O></O><ST1><st1:state w:st="on">ARIZONA</st1:state></ST1> v. <ST1><st1:city w:st="on">DETROIT </st1:city></ST1>
17th ranked avg score v. 23rd ranked score against<O></O>
19th ranked total yds v. 28th total yards allowed<O></O>
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</st1:state></ST1><ST1><st1:state w:st="[/IMG]<ST1http://cappingthegame.com/forum/">[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<O>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<ST1>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<st1:city w:st="on">[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=royalblue][COLOR=royalblue][COLOR=royalblue][COLOR=black]<ST1>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<ST1>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<st1:city w:st="on">[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<st1:city w:st="on"><O><st1:city w:st="on">[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<st1:state w:st="on">[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]
[COLOR=#00010a]13th ranked pass yds v. 30th pass yards allowed[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black]<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black]
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[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black]DEFENSE<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#00010a]
[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black][I][U]ARIZONA[/U][/I][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:state>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][I][U] v. <ST1><st1:city w:st="on">DETROIT </st1:city></ST1>[/U][/I]<ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]
[COLOR=black][COLOR=black]9th ranked yds allowed v. 12th ranked total yard[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=black]</ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:city></O></st1:city>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:city>[/COLOR][/COLOR]</ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:city>[/COLOR][/COLOR]</ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:state></ST1><ST1><st1:state w:st="<ST1http://cappingthegame.com/forum/">[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<O>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<ST1>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<st1:city w:st="on">[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=royalblue][COLOR=royalblue][COLOR=royalblue][COLOR=black]<ST1>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<ST1>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<st1:city w:st="on">[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<st1:city w:st="on"><O><st1:city w:st="on">[COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<ST1>[COLOR=black]<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]
[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black]18th ranked run yds allowed v. 21st ranked rushing yards<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#00010a]
[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black]7th ranked pass yds allowed v. 9th pass yards per game<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#00010a]
[COLOR=#00010a]<O></O><st1:city w:st="on"><ST1>Detroit</ST1> also has a its advantage([I]s[/I]), not all immediately obvious.[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#00010a]<O></O>[/COLOR]
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[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black]OFFENSE<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#00010a]
[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black]<st1:city w:st="on">[I][U]DETROIT v. ARIZONA<ST1></ST1>[/U][/I]<ST1></ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#00010a]
[COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black]6th ranked avg score v. 19th ranked score against.[COLOR=black]<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black]
[COLOR=#00010a]<st1:city w:st="on"></st1:city>[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#00010a]<st1:city w:st="on">[COLOR=black]Detroit[/COLOR]</st1:city>[COLOR=black][COLOR=black] forces significantly more turn overs than <st1:state w:st="on">Arizona</st1:state>, and <st1:state w:st="on"><ST1>Arizona </ST1>gives up significantly more. I’ve been told a dozen times that you can’t cap for TOs. In most cases, I agree. But here I think there is a pretty apparent trend: <ST1>Detroit will get its 2 road sacks, nab its 1.5 road INTs and force its 2 fumbles. <st1:state w:st="on"><ST1>Arizona</ST1> loses at least one fumble a game at home, and in one game let three hit the ground. I’ll take as a given that Kitna gives the ARI secondary a freebee INT, but IMO it probably wont turn into 6.<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#00010a][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]

[COLOR=black]<B>[COLOR=black]My Take:<O></O>[/COLOR]</B>[/COLOR][COLOR=black]
[COLOR=black][COLOR=black]I can see a close game here in theory. 1pt ATS is a pretty accurate line in ARI. Neutral ground or in DET, I’d take DET -4.5 or more. <st1:city w:st="on">Detroit</st1:city>’s D sucks and <st1:state w:st="on"><ST1>Arizona</ST1> has an OK offense. <st1:state w:st="on">Arizona</st1:state>’s D is only really strong against the pass, which is <st1:city w:st="on"><ST1>Detroit</ST1>’s only real strength too. If this game is in fact a coin flip, I lean for the team who is scoring 25 a game, is 6-2 (2-2 on the road), and 4-1 SU in their last 5. <st1:state w:st="on"><ST1>Arizona </ST1>is scoring 17 a game, is 3-5 (2-1 at home) and 2-3 SU in their last 5. If it goes to a shoot out, can Arizona keep up? <O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]

[COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<B>Prediction<O></O></B>[COLOR=black]<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=black][COLOR=black]

[COLOR=black][COLOR=black]<B>[COLOR=black]Det[/COLOR]</B>[COLOR=royalblue] <B>36</B>[COLOR=black],[/COLOR]<B> [COLOR=darkred][COLOR=black]Ari[/COLOR] [/COLOR]</B>[COLOR=darkred]<B>27</B>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=black][COLOR=black][COLOR=royalblue]

[COLOR=darkred][COLOR=black]Also like INDY at SD Sunday Night. Will probably put a write-up out on Thursday.<O></O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:state></st1:city></st1:state>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:state></ST1></st1:state>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:city>[/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:city>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:city></O></st1:city>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:city>[/COLOR][/COLOR]</ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:city>[/COLOR][/COLOR]</ST1>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</O>[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]</st1:state></ST1>
 
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I like the play a lot. Thats not kool-aid talking either. Arizona has a solid defense but other than Washington game Detroit has moved the ball all season long against everyone. Bell is basically don as a Liobn. He hasn't been on field for a few weeks now. Jones is running like he did back in his rookie year and is the missing piece from earlier inm the season. He is just solid as can be. They also are getting the ball to CJ a bit more each game and the defense isn't good but makes plays. Bottom line. Detroit has handled this series as of late and I see no reason why they don;t win easily this Sunday.
 
I like Detroit too but I always wait till game day or the day before before I lock anything in. Ive been burnt by injuries happening close to game time before. Its just a habit now but If I had to make the pick now it would be Detroit. :cheers:
 
I'm not so sure on the Lions. This is a tough matchup, I might play the over here. Arizona got lucky against the steelers with a punt return TD. But I'll give it to them they played solid on D.

Detroits defensive weakness is in their secondary. Can Warner expliot them? I'm not so sure yet.
 
Detroits strength on D is its front four.. when Warner has pressure on him he's terrible. Although Fitz and Boldin could create some problems for the lions secondary if Warner can get the ball off, the Lions should be able to rattle him enough to cause 2,3, maybe 4 turnovers
 
before Sundays game against Tampa, the Cards had only lost one game by more than 3 pts. And that one game was against the Panthers when Warner got hurt and Rattay came in. They have been close in every game this season and even beat the Steelers early on.

On the flip, Detroit was only up six to nothing last week when Cutler got hurt and was replaced by Patrick Ramsey, who came in and threw a pick six and had a fumble returned for a td.

Not saying you're on the wrong side, but Detroit was demolished 56-21 at Philly and 34-3 at Washington. They are not too good on the road against tough stop defenses. The only two road teams they have beat were Oakland and Chicago. This Arizona team could be tougher than those when you consider that if you don't count that game against the Panthers where Warner got hurt, the Cards are actually undefeated at home beating Seattle and Pittsburgh.

It's a situation where Detroit is facing a defense that's better than last weeks' Denver defense and Warner will be facing a defense that is worse than last weeks' Tampa defense... Detroit is ranked 30th against the pass...

The Lions are a 6-2 team playing a 3-5 team... so why are they dogs???..

The line actually opened with the Lions as 1 pt favorites... the thing is, they are now dogs and that's with the entire world pounding em'...

I think vegas wants everyone on the Lions here... I won't be.
 
they are not only facing a better defense but also a better offense than last week. i to believe that vegas likes arizona to win in this spot. Detroit should be favored by -2....high percentage on the lions right now (yeah its still early)and i dont see it dropping below 75% come sunday. if the line is ari -2 come game time, im on em.

gl
 
On the flip, Detroit was only up six to nothing last week when Cutler got hurt and was replaced by Patrick Ramsey, who came in and threw a pick six and had a fumble returned for a td.

This is a bit deceiving because Detroit, I believe, scored on every single one of their first four possessions of the game.

Yeah, Cutler was hurt eventually, but save their opening drive where Elam hit hit the upright, Denver never really moved the ball well whereas Detroit did. And Detroit moving the ball had nothing to do with Cutler going down. Lynch was out, Jarvis Moss was out, and in general Denver is extremely thin right now. So Detroit was going to score in this game.

It got ugly in the second half, and some of that was certainly Ramsey, but the reality is Denver was playing with a backup center against perhaps the best NT in the game. So Detroit was going to be in their backfield all day and when Denver was forced to pass it was just going to be that much worse for whoever was back there.

The other thing to note is that Denver, for some reason, didn't really start throwing much until Ramsey was in there. Some of this was necessity, but that's how you beat the Lions, through the air. And Denver had a couple of shots in Lions territory later in the game where they turned the ball over on downs trying to get points rather than settling for FGs which, at the time wouldn't really do much as they found themselves down by 20+.
 
On the flip, Detroit was only up six to nothing last week when Cutler got hurt and was replaced by Patrick Ramsey, who came in and threw a pick six and had a fumble returned for a td.

This is a bit deceiving because Detroit, I believe, scored on every single one of their first four possessions of the game.

Yeah, Cutler was hurt eventually, but save their opening drive where Elam hit hit the upright, Denver never really moved the ball well whereas Detroit did. And Detroit moving the ball had nothing to do with Cutler going down. Lynch was out, Jarvis Moss was out, and in general Denver is extremely thin right now. So Detroit was going to score in this game.

It got ugly in the second half, and some of that was certainly Ramsey, but the reality is Denver was playing with a backup center against perhaps the best NT in the game. So Detroit was going to be in their backfield all day and when Denver was forced to pass it was just going to be that much worse for whoever was back there.

The other thing to note is that Denver, for some reason, didn't really start throwing much until Ramsey was in there. Some of this was necessity, but that's how you beat the Lions, through the air. And Denver had a couple of shots in Lions territory later in the game where they turned the ball over on downs trying to get points rather than settling for FGs which, at the time wouldn't really do much as they found themselves down by 20+.


no doubt Denver sucks... and I'm sure Detroit would have won convincingly anyway, but what I was getting at was interception returns and fumble returns for scores don't help...

either way... this game will be Zonas'... that's the main point.. hehe.
 
Detroit has handled this series as of late and I see no reason why they don;t win easily this Sunday.

Actually, Arizona beat Detroit LY 17-10 as 2-point home favorites in a very similar spot. The 'Cards were up 17-0 in that game before a late Detroit rally fell short. These teams have one opponent in common in the Washington Redskins, who they both played on the road. Detroit did not compete while Arizona took it to the wire. Fact is...Detroit pretty much sucks on the road and have overachieved to this point with one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Arizona has already beaten Pittsburgh and Seattle at home, and in a good spot, should handle this Lions team as well.

GL.<!-- / message -->
 
Detroit has handled this series as of late and I see no reason why they don;t win easily this Sunday.

Actually, Arizona beat Detroit LY 17-10 as 2-point home favorites in a very similar spot. The 'Cards were up 17-0 in that game before a late Detroit rally fell short. These teams have one opponent in common in the Washington Redskins, who they both played on the road. Detroit did not compete while Arizona took it to the wire. Fact is...Detroit pretty much sucks on the road and have overachieved to this point with one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Arizona has already beaten Pittsburgh and Seattle at home, and in a good spot, should handle this Lions team as well.

GL.<!-- / message -->

LOL-totally forgot these teams played last year.

Our second best defensive player DeWayne White is out. Lineman Jonathan Scott is also out fwiw.
 
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Our second best defensive player DeWayne White is out.

Thanks for that info, BAR; did not know that as I haven't looked at NFL injuries yet this week. I really like what the Lions have accomplished this year so far, and in a watered down NFC, I expect them to be in the playoffs. That being said...I'll be on Arizona this week; just a great spot and the injury to White clinches it for me.

:cheers:
 
Our second best defensive player DeWayne White is out.

Thanks for that info, BAR; did not know that as I haven't looked at NFL injuries yet this week. I really like what the Lions have accomplished this year so far, and in a watered down NFC, I expect them to be in the playoffs. That being said...I'll be on Arizona this week; just a great spot and the injury to White clinches it for me.

:cheers:

I just got the news reading paper a bit ago. He tore sometrhing in his arm/shoulder at Chicago 2 weeks ago and reinjured it o nthe Fumble Recovery TD last week. kalimba Edwards is back though after missing last two games.
 
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