Week 1

[raems]

1-0, +2u

Tulane +7, 2.2/2

Extremely experienced offense with a program building coach coming off a “lessons learned in close losses” 5-7 season, home opener at night against a team trying to inch out a win minus its starting qb. Will post ML once I grab it, expecting this to crawl down to below 6 on Thursday.

Prob on Wisconsin too, type of game they can run the same one play all night and still probably cover. Others TBD.

 

[raems]

NM State +20.5, 1.1/1

Overreaction off week 0. True freshman walk-on qb and an offense no more explosive than Wyoming, expect some kinks for NM State offense to be worked out too. Expecting Minny to just be happy with a win.

CSU +7.5, 1.1/1.

Triple revenge in a rivalry game off an embarrassing loss with an inflated line, against a Colorado team everybody seems to expect to be bad.

SD State +14.5, 1.1/1

Line just looks off, 4-5 extra points just as a “bet on Bryce Love and the more recognizable name on a Friday night” tax.

 

[LockthisMonster]

Love the card! :Gl raems

 

[TRoe15]

With you on NMSU and Colorado State. Good luck this year.

 

[KJ]

GL on em, on Tulane and ML and would lean SDSU...very much concerned about quick turn time/travel for NMSU, highly doubt they can look as bad as they did offensively Sat night but then again not even sure how much practice they could even get in between games

CSU prolly right, have a feeling that one is a lower scoring rivalry game

 

[raems]

FAU +21, 1.1/1

A very successful team last year returning a lot, having a game week 1 worth getting up for in a major way. Think this will actually be very competitive, their defense also returns a lot of production compared to OU's offense.

UNLV +26.5, 1.1/1

True freshman QB against Armani Rodgers on the other side, USC with Stanford on deck. Don't see the motivation for USC to pile it on here.

UW / Auburn Under 48, 1.1/1

Under when Peterson is dogged at UW is a 75+% play. Think Auburn has a fantastic front 7, UW defense returning a lot against a young Auburn O-line. Think this one will be a struggle.

Michigan / ND Under 46.5, 3.3/3

Michigan has the best defense in the country this year imo, and ND will have a top 10 unit themselves. ND returning jack shit on offense will have a lot to work out early, and Michigan installing a new offense for a QB whose safety blanket in Tarik Black got hurt with less than a week to prepare. Don't think this game comes close to 47 points unless special teams / short fields are involved repeatedly.

Will be on Bama / Bama TT Over in a variety of ways, will post when I've played them.

 

[Timh]

GL Raems - agree on Michigan under and lean on Aub under as well. Don Brown is just an unbelievable def coordinator, been following him since UMass days.

 

[dickydunn]

just an fyi, when sdsu beat stanford 20-17 last year they benefited from a 3-0 turnover advantage, home field (and a bizarre blackout) and a stanford qb that couldn't hit open wrs in pitch and catch, simple man coverages. chryst either sailed balls and put the others in the dirt. so rocky long kept blitzing as he always does and chryst ended up 9/20 72yds 0-2 ints. i'm sure they'll come after costello and i'll bet he'll beat them enough to open up the run game

i believe stanford has this game circled despite usc on deck. sdsu was chirping all game. late hits. opposing coaches were yelling at each other coming off the field at half and there were many post whistle scuffles in the 2h. stanford was the far better team minus chryst, and i just don't see stanford taking the foot off the gas if they get a chance to put it on them

just my perspective, good luck to you

 

[B.A.R.]

Good stuff... Have a great weekend

 

[Eazyduzit]

FAU +21, 1.1/1

A very successful team last year returning a lot, having a game week 1 worth getting up for in a major way. Think this will actually be very competitive, their defense also returns a lot of production compared to OU's offense.

UNLV +26.5, 1.1/1

True freshman QB against Armani Rodgers on the other side, USC with Stanford on deck. Don't see the motivation for USC to pile it on here.

UW / Auburn Under 48, 1.1/1

Under when Peterson is dogged at UW is a 75+% play. Think Auburn has a fantastic front 7, UW defense returning a lot against a young Auburn O-line. Think this one will be a struggle.

Michigan / ND Under 46.5, 3.3/3

Michigan has the best defense in the country this year imo, and ND will have a top 10 unit themselves. ND returning jack shit on offense will have a lot to work out early, and Michigan installing a new offense for a QB whose safety blanket in Tarik Black got hurt with less than a week to prepare. Don't think this game comes close to 47 points unless special teams / short fields are involved repeatedly.

Will be on Bama / Bama TT Over in a variety of ways, will post when I've played them.

Love Alabama. They could easily win by 40. Petrino and UL talking shit, too. Icing on the cake.

 

[RetroVK]

Agree on most. Disagree on CSU and I admit that I cannot unsee CSU first game. If anything, the LACK of more movement implies the Buffs are really bad. Meaning the line didn't get inflated much as a result of the rams having their worst performance in a long time.

 

[Marsski]

Good luck this year....with you on UNLV & Mich under

 

[raems]

just an fyi, when sdsu beat stanford 20-17 last year they benefited from a 3-0 turnover advantage, home field (and a bizarre blackout) and a stanford qb that couldn't hit open wrs in pitch and catch, simple man coverages. chryst either sailed balls and put the others in the dirt. so rocky long kept blitzing as he always does and chryst ended up 9/20 72yds 0-2 ints. i'm sure they'll come after costello and i'll bet he'll beat them enough to open up the run game

i believe stanford has this game circled despite usc on deck. sdsu was chirping all game. late hits. opposing coaches were yelling at each other coming off the field at half and there were many post whistle scuffles in the 2h. stanford was the far better team minus chryst, and i just don't see stanford taking the foot off the gas if they get a chance to put it on them

just my perspective, good luck to you

Thank you for the heads up, it’s good insight. With that said it doesn’t keep me off the side. I’m generally low on Stanford this year, don’t think they have a defense worthy of laying two TD’s against any good teams.

 

[raems]

GL Raems - agree on Michigan under and lean on Aub under as well. Don Brown is just an unbelievable def coordinator, been following him since UMass days.

If they can muster something like the 30th best offense in the country they’ll contend for the playoff this year, I think the defense might separate itself in its own tier of one as the best D in the country without a close second.

 

[raems]

4-4, +1.6u

Miami -3, 1.2/1. Feels like bait dangling SEC team at +3 against a team that fell off fast last year.