Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Hello Gents. Things have been hectic around here so I got a late start on handicapping. As always, I greatly appreciate the feedback from all the great cappers on the site. It looks like another great year, and CTG is as good as ever.
1. North Carolina +3(had to buy it) v South Carolina: This game is being played in Charlotte, so it's a bit of a home game for the Tar Heels, although it's not a very far drive from Columbia and the Cocks have a fanbase more likely to travel. Both of these teams had atrocious defenses last year. I made some money fading North Carolina last year, mostly because of their defense, a quick perusing of last year's stats indicates that South Carolina was just as bad on defense as UNC was. South Carolina was 117th in total defensive efficiency, 113th against the run and 88th against the pass. They brought almost no pressure on the QB, as they ranked 120th in sacks. Both teams were good on offense last year, especially the Gamecocks, but they lost a ton off last year's offense. OBC just named his started a couple days ago, some kid named Connor Mitch, who has never taken a snap. Their offensive line looks to have taken a step back and they lost most of their receiving production as well as RB Mike Davis. UNC on the other hand returns every single contributor from last year's offense, which was a pretty explosive group. QB Marquise Williams is the biggest returnee, and he has all of his skill buddies back as well as all 5 offensive linemen. Defensively,l they have a long way to go, but they brought in Gene Chizik to coach the defense, and South Carolina is likely to struggle in their first game under a new signal caller. I think there's a chance that USC struggles to get going, but I will be stunned i they can slow down the UNC attack with a defense coming off such a horrific performance last year. Even if their defense is vastly improved, UNC should be able to score on them with relative ease.
2. Western Kentucky -2 @ Vanderbilt. Yes, I am taking a C-USA team to cover as a road favorite against an SEC team. Vandy is coming off a terrible year, one in which they never could get going on offense, and also struggled mightily on defense. The 'Dores were ranked 75th overall in defensive efficiency and 107th against the pass. Unfortunately for them, WKU ranked 3rd in the country in pass offense and has everyone back...a stud QB in Brandon Doughty, and 1500 yard RB in Leon Allen and the full complement of receivers from last year. WKU's issues are usually on defensive end, but Vandy is not likely armed offensively to take full advantage of a leaky defense. One thing is for sure though....WKU is going to score, and I don't think Vandy can hang with them.
3. @Utah -4.5 v Michigan: I suspect I won't be going against Michigan very often in the near future due to my affinity for Jim Harbaugh, but I think this line is a bit inflated in Michigan's favor. Obviously, Harbaugh is a great hire, but we're talking about an offense with a new QB (likely ex Iowa QB Jake Rudock) who has pedestrian numbers at best and a host of new skill guys, going into a vicious environment to face a solid, well coached squad. Defensively, Utah returns more sacks than any team in the country, so it's likely Rudock or whoever else ends up behind center will be looking at a menacing situation. I just think it's asking a lot for Michigan to cover a short spread against a very good team in a tough venue when you are traveling with a brand new scheme, with a new coach and a new QB, and very litle WR talent to speak of.
Friday: 4. Boise -12 v Washington: LOTS of motivation for Boise here as they face their old coach, and they always get jacked to face power 5 conference teams. Boise returns 32 sacks and 17 INTs from their team last year, an unheard of number and an indication that things could be very ugly for a new Huskie QB and zero returning starters on the offensive line. If Boise gets any kind of offensive performance, they should be in good shape because Washington is very unlikely to get anything going. A defensive score or 2 by Boise is also likely.
1. North Carolina +3(had to buy it) v South Carolina: This game is being played in Charlotte, so it's a bit of a home game for the Tar Heels, although it's not a very far drive from Columbia and the Cocks have a fanbase more likely to travel. Both of these teams had atrocious defenses last year. I made some money fading North Carolina last year, mostly because of their defense, a quick perusing of last year's stats indicates that South Carolina was just as bad on defense as UNC was. South Carolina was 117th in total defensive efficiency, 113th against the run and 88th against the pass. They brought almost no pressure on the QB, as they ranked 120th in sacks. Both teams were good on offense last year, especially the Gamecocks, but they lost a ton off last year's offense. OBC just named his started a couple days ago, some kid named Connor Mitch, who has never taken a snap. Their offensive line looks to have taken a step back and they lost most of their receiving production as well as RB Mike Davis. UNC on the other hand returns every single contributor from last year's offense, which was a pretty explosive group. QB Marquise Williams is the biggest returnee, and he has all of his skill buddies back as well as all 5 offensive linemen. Defensively,l they have a long way to go, but they brought in Gene Chizik to coach the defense, and South Carolina is likely to struggle in their first game under a new signal caller. I think there's a chance that USC struggles to get going, but I will be stunned i they can slow down the UNC attack with a defense coming off such a horrific performance last year. Even if their defense is vastly improved, UNC should be able to score on them with relative ease.
2. Western Kentucky -2 @ Vanderbilt. Yes, I am taking a C-USA team to cover as a road favorite against an SEC team. Vandy is coming off a terrible year, one in which they never could get going on offense, and also struggled mightily on defense. The 'Dores were ranked 75th overall in defensive efficiency and 107th against the pass. Unfortunately for them, WKU ranked 3rd in the country in pass offense and has everyone back...a stud QB in Brandon Doughty, and 1500 yard RB in Leon Allen and the full complement of receivers from last year. WKU's issues are usually on defensive end, but Vandy is not likely armed offensively to take full advantage of a leaky defense. One thing is for sure though....WKU is going to score, and I don't think Vandy can hang with them.
3. @Utah -4.5 v Michigan: I suspect I won't be going against Michigan very often in the near future due to my affinity for Jim Harbaugh, but I think this line is a bit inflated in Michigan's favor. Obviously, Harbaugh is a great hire, but we're talking about an offense with a new QB (likely ex Iowa QB Jake Rudock) who has pedestrian numbers at best and a host of new skill guys, going into a vicious environment to face a solid, well coached squad. Defensively, Utah returns more sacks than any team in the country, so it's likely Rudock or whoever else ends up behind center will be looking at a menacing situation. I just think it's asking a lot for Michigan to cover a short spread against a very good team in a tough venue when you are traveling with a brand new scheme, with a new coach and a new QB, and very litle WR talent to speak of.
Friday: 4. Boise -12 v Washington: LOTS of motivation for Boise here as they face their old coach, and they always get jacked to face power 5 conference teams. Boise returns 32 sacks and 17 INTs from their team last year, an unheard of number and an indication that things could be very ugly for a new Huskie QB and zero returning starters on the offensive line. If Boise gets any kind of offensive performance, they should be in good shape because Washington is very unlikely to get anything going. A defensive score or 2 by Boise is also likely.
