Week 1 Write-Ups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
It was a 1-1 week for Week Zero, which is fine. Kansas was much better in the trenches than I thought they'd be, and the new OC Jim Zebrowski made the Jayhawks look a lot like they did under Kotelnicki, which I thought would be hard with such a new group, especially with all the pre snap complications. Good job by Campbell at the end of the Farmageddon game to make the right call and end things while on offense.

There's a couple games I've been eyeing all offseason that I'm probably going to pass on. The first is in Tampa, where I was planning on taking the points with USF. There's a couple reasons I liked them. First, despite the fact that they made the playoff last year, I'm not sure that Spencer Danielson is really all that good of a coach. We'll find out this year, but the two most important people to that team last year are gone. Obviously, Jeanty is one, but Dirk Koetter not being there calling plays is going to be a blow to the Broncos. Maybe the internal hire Nate Potter will turn out ok, but this is a tough spot in his first game, and Koetter is one of the best offensive minds in football. Boise is also sloppy on defense if they aren't constantly sacking the QB, and they'll have a hard time corralling a healthy Byrum Brown. Lots of experience in the front 7 on D for the Bulls as well. I'm staying away however, because USF has been putrid in games like this, and the weather might actually hurt them. It's a Week 1 game in Florida so there's about a 99% chance we'll get a lengthy weather delay. I can envision USF looking great, but then a 3 hour delay happens and that throws everything off kilter. Also, the line has gotten under 6. As a result, staying away. Alright...on to the games.


Rutgers -15.5 LOSS
Buffalo +18 WIN
Colorado +5 LOSS
Baylor +2.5 LOSS
Texas +2.5 LOSS
Toledo +9.5 WIN
Northwestern +6 LOSS
Alabama -14 LOSS
Utah -5.5 WIN

3-6 :(





1. @Rutgers -15.5 v Ohio (Available pretty much everywhere) There's a lot going against Ohio in this one. First of all, Tim Albin bolted after giving the Bobcats their first MAC title in something like 50 years. He proved himself to be a very resourceful guy during his tenure there. They promoted OC Brian Smith to the big chair, but this is going to be a tall ask for him going up against Schiano in a non-conference role and home favorite role that he's been dominant in, especially the non-con. The Knights are 12-3 ATS in non-conference games since '21, and Ohio is 6-2 over that same time period in the non-con ATS, opposite ends of the spectrum. Also, I'm seeing most talking heads tabbing Rutgers as one of the weak sisters of the Big Ten. That might end up being true, but that will be a reflection of the Big Ten more than Rutgers because I like where they stand coming into the year. They return a lot of their production on defense, and Athan Kaliakmanis really started to show himself to be pretty competent at Qb, even adding some running prowess. They lose RB Monongai, but the backup Antwan Raymond ran for 118 yards on 18 carries in their bowl game against a pretty good run D in K State so he's not chopped liver. Ohio got ravaged on defense in the portal, partly due to Albin taking guys with him to Charlotte. They bring back Parker Navarro at QB, but he was inconsistent, and they lose their skill guys (RB Tyus and WR Owen) who were both 1,000 yard guys. Looks like a bit of a physical mismatch as well as a major coaching advantage for Rutgers, so 15.5 doesn't seem like a bad number for the Knights to handle.

This was shaping up ok in the first half, but I was really surprised at how bad the Rutgers defense looked. Navarro picked them apart and pretty much did whatever he wanted on the ground too. Among QBs in week 1, there weren't many that looked better than Navarro did, and he did that with zero of his pals coming back from last year. That's week 1 for you. Terrible defensive performance for Rutgers but they showed some positive signs on offense for sure.
 
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Forgot to mention: Starting a little earlier because I'll be in Champaign Friday night for the Illinois opener so I won't be around then or Saturday morning. I'll be periodically checking on my phone but will need to have the writeups done by Friday AM at the latest.

2. Buffalo +18 @Minnesota: (BOL) Another MAC v Big Ten tussle but I'm going the other way in this one. I've mentioned many times that I'm a fan of Pete Lembo, and he proved himself last year in his first run with the Bulls. Last year he had a completely new and inexperienced roster and ended up 9-4. Now he's got a lot of his guys back and you can make a very strong case that they are better in just about every area but kicker and maybe QB. They've got a 1,000 yard rusher returning in Al-Jay Henderson and 4 of their 5 starters back on the OL. I'm not a huge fan of assumed starter at QB Tyquan Robinson, but CJ Ogbonna struggled to hit the broad side of a barn last year and they still found a way to score. Defensively, they have 7 of their top 9 tacklers back. Minnesota I think has some question marks on offense with a first time redshirt Frosh QB and an offensive line that loses a lot from last year, nit to mention their top 2 targets in the pass game. On defense, the biggest loss is DC Heatherman who took a suitcase full of cash to go to Miami, s we'll see what happens with their defensive play calling. It's a pretty low total yet still a significant spread, which usually bodes well for the dog. Did I mention I like Pete Lembo? I'll take the points here.


Caught a bit of a break here because Buffalo was completely neutralized on offense. This was the right side though because even in the game script Minnesota wanted, this wasn't going to be a blowout. The only reason it was a bit of a sweat was because of the 1 play drive on the long TD pass early in the 4th that is very unlikely to happen again for Minnesota.
 
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Like the Rutgers pic and I'm on it too. Ohio has Rutgers, West Virginia, and Ohio State to start the season. Very tough.
Schiano teams are ready for game 1.

Danny Collins, the new Gopher DC, has been with Fleck for yrs. So not a wholesale change at DC. Minny brings like 73% of their defense back and they were pretty good last yr. And word is they are high on rs frosh Lindsey at qb. Last yr Buffalo was manhandled by a very good Missouri 38-0. Yet 18 is a lot of points here. Thinking this one will be in that 15-23 pt margin of victory range.

GL
 
V.K. said:
Like the Rutgers pic and I'm on it too. Ohio has Rutgers, West Virginia, and Ohio State to start the season. Very tough.
Schiano teams are ready for game 1.

Danny Collins, the new Gopher DC, has been with Fleck for yrs. So not a wholesale change at DC. Minny brings like 73% of their defense back and they were pretty good last yr. And word is they are high on rs frosh Lindsey at qb. Last yr Buffalo was manhandled by a very good Missouri 38-0. Yet 18 is a lot of points here. Thinking this one will be in that 15-23 pt margin of victory range.

GL
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Thing is the MAC for some reason has such good success against the Big 10 recently. Obviously that can change on a dime but I'm not really into just fading them to fade them. For most it's their one more national game and they've gotten up for them lately. If Rutgers does cover against Ohio this week I'll be on WVU next week even with tOSU game on deck. WVU is very winnable for the Cats knowing they're likely getting beat up pretty badly the next week.
 
V.K. said:
Like the Rutgers pic and I'm on it too. Ohio has Rutgers, West Virginia, and Ohio State to start the season. Very tough.
Schiano teams are ready for game 1.

Danny Collins, the new Gopher DC, has been with Fleck for yrs. So not a wholesale change at DC. Minny brings like 73% of their defense back and they were pretty good last yr. And word is they are high on rs frosh Lindsey at qb. Last yr Buffalo was manhandled by a very good Missouri 38-0. Yet 18 is a lot of points here. Thinking this one will be in that 15-23 pt margin of victory range.

GL
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Good points for sure, and great to hear from you VK. Hopefully Lembo has them ready to go better than that beat down in Columbia last year. I'm skeptical of the Minny lines and I've seen first hand (Illinois '23) when a seemingly seamless internal hire gets exposed. Aaron Henry has gotten much better since then and he's settled in nicely, but he was a bit lost early when he was calling the schemes. They were way more disorganized, especially early. We'll see. Hopefully the games ends up closer to 15 than 23!
 
KJ said:
Thing is the MAC for some reason has such good success against the Big 10 recently. Obviously that can change on a dime but I'm not really into just fading them to fade them. For most it's their one more national game and they've gotten up for them lately. If Rutgers does cover against Ohio this week I'll be on WVU next week even with tOSU game on deck. WVU is very winnable for the Cats knowing they're likely getting beat up pretty badly the next week.
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I just feel like the Bobs got pretty decimated last year. MAC's been known to upset people that's for sure.
 
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3. @ Colorado +5 v Georgia Tech (BR) : I suspect that I'll be on Georgia Tech quite a bit this year, but that's assuming they line up as dogs. When they're favored, I'm not interested because although Brent Key has been a wizard ATS when he's dogged, they've fallen on their face as favorites, going 5-12-1 in that role since '21. This is going to be a tough test for them in my opinion. I certainly like the Jackets offensively with OC Faulkner, Hayes King and the other Hayes at running back, but Colorado DC Robert Livingston proved himself to be a major asset last year. We all know about Shedeur Sanders, Hunter and the other wideouts were awesome for the Buffs last year, but I think the biggest reason for Colorado's improvement to a 9-3 regular season was the two coordinators. Defensively the Buffs lose some starters, including Hunter, but they return a good sample of talent and brought in some guys that Livingston should be able to coach up. On offense they lose a lot, but I like Pat Shurmur as a play caller and Kaidon Salter is certainly capable at QB. When I watched Colorado play K State last year, I remember Omarrion Miller jumping off the screen, catching something like 8 balls for 150 yards, but he was hurt most of the year. He should be good this year and they brought some other transfers in who should be able to fit in. Shurmur has indicated they'll run the ball more this year and they have several solid linemen coming back. The atmosphere in Boulder should be jumping, and Coach Prime has been really good as a dog so far (9-3), and we know that altitude can be an issue for teams that aren't used to it. Now that this line has climbed to 5, I like the Buffs. A lot of people are thinking(hoping?) Deion gets exposed without his kid and Hunter, but I don't buy it. I think he's got a solid foundation there.


Mixed bag here. Colorado just could not tackle Haynes King. They actually ran the ball pretty well, but Salter mostly worked underneath and couldn't convert in big spots. I'm not going to say that the Buffs were the wrong side because the aura of failure as a favorite was definitely there for Georgia Tech and the late game situation typically ends with a FG, not a 45 yard TD in the last minute. Also, terrible clock management at the end by Deion. I remain high on the Yellowjackets. Hopefully we'll have some nice dog opportunities with them. Not giving up on the Buffs as a dog either.
 
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4. @Baylor +2.5 v Auburn (BOL) : I was hoping to get this at 3, but I can't even buy it at anything reasonable in my spots so we'll stick to 2.5. Ultimately, there are things to like and not like about both of these teams, but I just cannot trust Hugh Freeze to pull off a clutch win in a big spot against a team that should be primed for a good year. This Baylor offense returns many of the major playmakers that propelled them to a fantastic finish to last year, most notably QB Sawyer Robinson. Once Robinson got settled in and they stopped messing around with Daquan Finn, the Bears averaged 506 yards per game in their last 7. Auburn has a much improved OL and a couple high level receivers(assuming Eric Singleton plays), but Jackson Arnold was mostly not good in what turned out to be a terrible spot for him at Oklahoma. Will he look like his credentials indicated he would coming out of high school? Maybe the change of scenery will help with that, but it's certainly not a "low pressure" spot he's moved to. The juju for Auburn has been horrendous, with comically bad luck and efforts down the stretch in games, and people are correct to be skeptical of Freeze in my opinion. Auburn's gonna have to prove to me that they can take care of business in a spot like this, so I'll take the points with the home dog and hope the offense and home atmosphere carry them.

Baylor's defensive effort was sickening. Arnold was running all over them and they didn't really make an adjustment to it all night. Offensively they looked good enough but whenever they needed a stop they didn't get it, including giving up a kickoff return TD. I thought Auburn wouldn't have the wherewithall to pull off this win, but they managed it. Hats off to them.
 
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Strongly considered Charlotte and Cincy as 7 point dogs in their games but ultimately could not pull the trigger. Charlotte too much uncertainty though I like Albin a ton more than I like Loggains, and Cincy has been too much of a punching bag away from home. I think they can run on Nebraska though with Walker. Satterfield also does not spark optimism.
 
Br@ssknux said:
4. @Baylor +2.5 v Auburn (BOL) : I was hoping to get this at 3, but I can't even buy it at anything reasonable in my spots so we'll stick to 2.5. Ultimately, there are things to like and not like about both of these teams, but I just cannot trust Hugh Freeze to pull off a clutch win in a big spot against a team that should be primed for a good year. This Baylor offense returns many of the major playmakers that propelled them to a fantastic finish to last year, most notably QB Sawyer Robinson. Once Robinson got settled in and they stopped messing around with Daquan Finn, the Bears averaged 506 yards per game in their last 7. Auburn has a much improved OL and a couple high level receivers(assuming Eric Singleton plays), but Jackson Arnold was mostly not good in what turned out to be a terrible spot for him at Oklahoma. Will he look like his credentials indicated he would coming out of high school? Maybe the change of scenery will help with that, but it's certainly not a "low pressure" spot he's moved to. The juju for Auburn has been horrendous, with comically bad luck and efforts down the stretch in games, and people are correct to be skeptial of Freeze in my opinion. Auburn's gonna have to prove to me that they can take care of business in a spot like this, so I'll take the points with the home dog and hope the offense and home atmosphere carry them.
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Cannot argue with catching points in this spot.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Forgot to mention: Starting a little earlier because I'll be in Champaign Friday night for the Illinois opener so I won't be around then or Saturday morning. I'll be periodically checking on my phone but will need to have the writeups done by Friday AM at the latest.

2. Buffalo +18 @Minnesota: (BOL) Another MAC v Big Ten tussle but I'm going the other way in this one. I've mentioned many times that I'm a fan of Pete Lembo, and he proved himself last year in his first run with the Bulls. Last year he had a completely new and inexperienced roster and ended up 9-4. Now he's got a lot of his guys back and you can make a very strong case that they are better in just about every area but kicker and maybe QB. They've got a 1,000 yard rusher returning in Al-Jay Henderson and 4 of their 5 starters back on the OL. I'm not a huge fan of assumed starter at QB Tyquan Robinson, but CJ Ogbonna struggled to hit the broad side of a barn last year and they still found a way to score. Defensively, they have 7 of their top 9 tacklers back. Minnesota I think has some question marks on offense with a first time redshirt Frosh QB and an offensive line that loses a lot from last year, nit to mention their top 2 targets in the pass game. On defense, the biggest loss is DC Heatherman who took a suitcase full of cash to go to Miami, s we'll see what happens with their defensive play calling. It's a pretty low total yet still a significant spread, which usually bodes well for the dog. Did I mention I like Pete Lembo? I'll take the points here.
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The more I dove into this late last night the more I felt the same way. A lot of points in what will be a lpe scoring game.
 
Br@ssknux said:
4. @Baylor +2.5 v Auburn (BOL) : I was hoping to get this at 3, but I can't even buy it at anything reasonable in my spots so we'll stick to 2.5. Ultimately, there are things to like and not like about both of these teams, but I just cannot trust Hugh Freeze to pull off a clutch win in a big spot against a team that should be primed for a good year. This Baylor offense returns many of the major playmakers that propelled them to a fantastic finish to last year, most notably QB Sawyer Robinson. Once Robinson got settled in and they stopped messing around with Daquan Finn, the Bears averaged 506 yards per game in their last 7. Auburn has a much improved OL and a couple high level receivers(assuming Eric Singleton plays), but Jackson Arnold was mostly not good in what turned out to be a terrible spot for him at Oklahoma. Will he look like his credentials indicated he would coming out of high school? Maybe the change of scenery will help with that, but it's certainly not a "low pressure" spot he's moved to. The juju for Auburn has been horrendous, with comically bad luck and efforts down the stretch in games, and people are correct to be skeptial of Freeze in my opinion. Auburn's gonna have to prove to me that they can take care of business in a spot like this, so I'll take the points with the home dog and hope the offense and home atmosphere carry them.
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Like this play. Freeze needs to prove to me otherwise but he has an auto-fade feel about him. Giving points on the road? Pass.
 
5. Texas +2.5 @Ohio State (BR) : Had to have an opinion on this one. For the #1 and #3 teams in the country, both of these teams have a lot of question marks. Both teams are down a notch or two in most areas, but ultimately I think Texas has more known quantities than Ohio State. I'm concerned about the Ohio State lines. Defensively they will be relying on a lot of linemen with talent that have not been counted on before. They also will have to replace some major playmakers in Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau. On the offensive line, they're going to be reliant on transfers, especially at RT. Texas is going to be down on both lines compared to last year as well, but I think they might have an edge in the trenches. The place where I especially think Texas has the edge is on the coaching staffs. OSU loses two of the best coordinators in college football last year in Jim Knowles and Chip Kelly. Although Brian Hartline has been around forever at OSU, and Ryan Day's forte is offense, he's taking on a big role here, especially with a new and untested QB. Matt Patricia comes in on the defensive side, and I can't be the only guy who is alarmed by that development. The Buckeyes will always have a huge advantage with the best WR in the country Jeremiah Smith, but Texas DC Pete Kwiatkowski held him in check in the semis last year and I'm sure will make someone else beat them. Will it be RB CJ Donaldson from West Virginia? He's alright, but he's light years behind the two maniacs they had back there last year, both of whom are in the NFL now. I'm not ready to anoint Arch Manning, but he's got a lot more known quantities than Julian Sayin does. Add in the edge with Sark and Kwiatkowski calling plays over Hartline and Patricia, and I'll take the smidgin of points here.

I hate to be a dick about this but Arch Manning was the reason Texas lost this game. He sucked, and he sucked in every aspect. They failed in the red zone because of him. His effort on the two runs when they were stopped at the one was laughably weak. Most of the rest of the team was fine, especially the defense. OSU targeted Jeremiah Smith 10 times and it netted them about 40 yards. I saw some expected win metrics that had OSU at only about 20% win expectancy. A replacement level QB performance by Texas probably wins them the game. Having said all that, you have to give Patricia credit. He was pretty good in the game. Better than I thought.
 
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6. Toledo +9.5 @Kentucky (BR): I'm generally not enamored with Jason Candle, but that's usually when he's in a situation where he's got the talent advantage and is laying points. As a dog, we cannot deny his prowess. He's covered 5 in a row as a dog and 7 of his last 8 since '21. It's to the point now that you have to make Toledo an auto play as a dog, and certainly in situations like this where they're playing a P4 conference team with flaws. There's a chance Kentucky might be able to bulldoze the Rockets because Toledo is breaking in a bunch of new defensive linemen, but being soft on defense has never really been a criticism you can dump on them. Plus, I'm not sold on Kentucky in the least. Zach Calzada? I know he looked good at Incarnate Word or wherever, but how long do we have to watch this guy play? There's probably a dozen entrenched starting QBs in the NFL that are younger than him. Their offensive line is all transfers and the tackles are coming in from New Mexico State and Bowling Green. They have no receivers and projected starting RB Dante Dowdell barely cracked 4 yards per carry at Nebraska. OC Bush Hamdan has been at a bunch of places where fans were high fiving each other when he hot the road. Defensively, they are replacing just about everyone from a defense that underachieved anyway. Mark Stoops has been great at Kentucky, but things appear to be getting stale, or have gotten stale. I just don't see them as a team capable or running and hiding from a team with Toledo's pedigree.

If you take out the late 79 yard run that the previously unexplosive Dante Dowdell reeled off, Kentucky managed only 225 total yards in this one. Toledo scored late for the cover, but they outgained them and that was with about a 2/10 performance from Gleeson and that offense. I think Toledo was the right side here.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
5. Texas +2.5 @Ohio State (BR) : Had to have an opinion on this one. For the #1 and #3 teams in the country, both of these teams have a lot of question marks. Both teams are down a notch or two in most areas, but ultimately I think Texas has more known quantities than Ohio State. I'm concerned about the Ohio State lines. Defensively they will be relying on a lot of linemen with talent that have not been counted on before. They also will have to replace some major playmakers in Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau. On the offensive line, they're going to be reliant on transfers, especially at RT. Texas is going to be down on both lines compared to last year as well, but I think they might have an edge in the trenches. The place where I especially think Texas has the edge is on the coaching staffs. OSU loses two of the best coordinators in college football last year in Jim Knowles and Chip Kelly. Although Brian Hartline has been around forever at OSU, and Ryan Day's forte is offense, he's taking on a big role here, especially with a new and untested QB. Matt Patricia comes in on the defensive side, and I can't be the only guy who is alarmed by that development. The Buckeyes will always have a huge advantage with the best WR in the country Jeremiah Smith, but Texas DC Pete Kwiatkowski held him in check in the semis last year and I'm sure will make someone else beat them. Will it be RB CJ Donaldson from West Virginia? He's alright, but he's light years behind the two maniacs they had back there last year, both of whom are in the NFL now. I'm not ready to anoint Arch Manning, but he's got a lot more known quantities than Julian Sayin does. Add in the edge with Sark and Kwiatkowski calling plays over Hartline and Patricia, and I'll take the smidgin of points here.
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Feeling better about the Horns as we get closer to game time. Sarkisian has been good in tough road environments over the last couple years, winning at Alabama, Michigan and A&M. The team has also won its last 10 games with 11AM kicks.

Seems like everyone is on Texas right now which is a bit scary (for me at least). Should be interesting.
 
MikeU said:
Love the write ups sir! Any thoughts or feel on Nebraska?
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Ended up passing. I don't really trust either team. I originally leaned toward Nebraska because i think Rhule trends toward good starts and Arrowhead will be exceedingly pro Huskers, but their defensive line worries me a bit. I could see Tawee Walker running on them if he isn't in the preseason dog house. Not a Satterfield fan though and Cincy has gotten hammered pretty good in spots like this in the past.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Feeling better about the Horns as we get closer to game time. Sarkisian has been good in tough road environments over the last couple years, winning at Alabama, Michigan and A&M. The team has also won its last 10 games with 11AM kicks.

Seems like everyone is on Texas right now which is a bit scary (for me at least). Should be interesting.
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I agree with your last statement.
 
7. Northwestern +6 @Tulane (BR) : I thought I missed the 6 on this one but BR still had it so I jumped on it. I think the Cats are going to be a little better than people think this year. They'll be solid on defense which they have been under Braun. 8 starters return, and the scheme has proven to work. Offensively, they'll certainly be better as they return top rusher Cam Porter and have a couple of NFL prospects on the offensive line. Braun brought in a couple South Dakota State OL to help and also lassoed SDSU's 1200 yard receiver Griffin Wilde, which should pay off for new QB Preston Stone, who comes in from SMU. He lost his job to Kevin Jennings last year, but he's got loads of experience and is a major upgrade over what they've had there the past couple of years. Ironically, they are dogged to a team that might be starting one of those inferior former QBs if not for Brenden Sullivan's injury. He was in the lead to start for the Green Wave until he got hurt, and now they'll probably go with Jake Retzlaff, who just got there in late June after getting tossed out of BYU for the dreaded "conduct unbecoming" charge. Tulane loses a ton, especially on offense as Mehki Hughes, who has been their most important player on offense for 3 years, departs for Oregon. They also lose all but 14 of their receptions and of course Derian Mensah at QB. There's no question that they will be a work in progress on offense. Defensively they'll be fine, but this looks like a low scoring game, and Northwestern is in their happy place as a dog. They've historically been a great home favorite, but lost twice outright at home last year, so the jury is still out on that regime. This should be a tight one. Cats are expecting to win this one I believe.

Northwestern sucked ass all day. That's pretty much it. Bad call there.
 
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8. Alabama -14 @Florida State (BOL) : Mike Norvell ain't it. He's 2-11 since his team quit on him in 2023 and if you take that season away, his record is 20-26 with 3 out of 4 losing seasons. Last year was a complete abomination as the Noles were outgained by 132 yards per game in the ACC. Georgia Tech and BC dominated them at the line of scrimmage in the first two games and that pretty much summed up the season for them. They are not well coached. This year they bring in a flotilla of transfers, many of which seem mismatched, and most of whom were somewhat disappointing or attitude problems at their last stop. A couple guys have already been dismissed, and it doesn't seem like the vibe is all that strong. Despite all this, they've been talking shit for some reason, which I'm sure will get Alabama's attention, and they didn't need much to get motivated about because of the season they themselves are coming off of. Among the shit talkers is Thomas Castellanos, who comes in from BC after being benched for the great Grayson James. He's supposed to be a runner but he doesn't run the read option well and he can't throw the ball downfield effectively. It seems a little odd that they're putting their eggs in the Tommy C basket, but the alternative is Brock Glenn, who has proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he can't play worth a shit. Bill O'Brien was more than happy to give Castellanos his walking papers, but hey, I'm sure Mike Norvell can improve on Bill O'Brien's work, right? Bama has their own questions at QB, but I trust Kalen DeBoer enough to believe he'll make major strides now that he has his OC back in Ryan Grubb from Washington. He has two high caliber receivers in Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard and probably the best LT around in Kadyn Proctor to help out Ty Simpson or whoever DeBoer deems worthy of starting. Defensively, they have pros all over the place who chose to come back for another year, and the FSU offense was about the worst in the ACC last year. They've brought guys in, but nowhere near enough to turn this from a woeful offense to an effective one in one year. Gus Malzahn comes in to run the offense, but that thing has stalled significantly the last couple of years. Anything's an upgrade, but I like Kade Wommack's chances in that matchup. FSU might get a nice spark at the outset, but I suspect the game will end up being much too long for them.

I guess Norvell just alternates competence with extreme incompetence year by year? This might be the most laughably off base writeup I've ever done, and that's saying something. Alabama was dominated at the line of scrimmage. I fell for the "Hypothetical Alabama" concept rather than looking at the results of "Actual Alabama" over the past 9 games they've played. This has been mentioned ad nauseum, but DeBoer has now lost outright 5 times as a double digit favorite in 14 total games at Alabama. I've long been an admirer of him, but man, laying major points on the road with them is akin to setting fire to your assets at this point. Ty Simpson was fine throwing that out pattern to Bernard on the left side of the field, but that's about it. Castellanos looked great. Florida State appeared well coached. Old Takes Exposed could put the above paragraph in their hall of fame.
 
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9. Utah -5.5 @UCLA (BOL) : This is horrible line value, but this game might end up like Indiana @UCLA last year. Utah is due for some good fortune and this is a head coaching mismatch. Tino Sunseri seems like a decent hire, but he walks into a terrible spot with personnel as the OL is a mess and they have a collection of castoffs at wide receiver. To top it off, they are relying on Nico Iamaleava at QB, who was not good at all at Tennessee despite having a dominant running game and much better skill people, not to mention a system build to be simple for the QB. If Scalley pressures him, it's going to be a long day for the UCLA offense. Defensively, UCLA will have to deal with Devon Dampier, who had 19 rushing TDs for new Mexico last year and is now running and throwing behind one of the best OLs in the country. Zero home field for UCLA here as well...I'd probably play Utah up to 10.

Could have played Utah up to 32.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
3. @ Colorado +5 v Georgia Tech (BR) : I suspect that I'll be on Georgia Tech quite a bit this year, but that's assuming they line up as dogs. When they're favored, I'm not interested because although Brent Key has been a wizard ATS when he's dogged, they've fallen on their face as favorites, going 5-12-1 in that role since '21. This is going to be a tough test for them in my opinion. I certainly like the Jackets offensively with OC Faulkner, Hayes King and the other Hayes at running back, but Colorado DC Robert Livingston proved himself to be a major asset last year. We all know about Shedeur Sanders, Hunter and the other wideouts were awesome for the Buffs last year, but I think the biggest reason for Colorado's improvement to a 9-3 regular season was the two coordinators. Defensively the Buffs lose some starters, including Hunter, but they return a good sample of talent and brought in some guys that Livingston should be able to coach up. On offense they lose a lot, but I like Pat Shurmur as a play caller and Kaidon Salter is certainly capable at QB. When I watched Colorado play K State last year, I remember Omarrion Miller jumping off the screen, catching something like 8 balls for 150 yards, but he was hurt most of the year. He should be good this year and they brought some other transfers in who should be able to fit in. Shurmur has indicated they'll run the ball more this year and they have several solid linemen coming back. The atmosphere in Boulder should be jumping, and Coach Prime has been really good as a dog so far (9-3), and we know that altitude can be an issue for teams that aren't used to it. Now that this line has climbed to 5, I like the Buffs. A lot of people are thinking(hoping?) Deion gets exposed without his kid and Hunter, but I don't buy it. I think he's got a solid foundation there.
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Good read buddy, I was def leaning Gtech but I agree they much better played as dogs and don’t love week1 in altitude. I am a huge king fan tho, he has made me good money, mostly as a dog and props tho, tough for me to totally switch but I am starting to look at the over more than side., supper happy to see you back for another season, always enjoy your write ups even the few times we disagree😜. Good luck this season!
 
Br@ssknux said:
8. Alabama -14 @Florida State (BOL) : Mike Norvell ain't it. He's 2-11 since his team quit on him in 2023 and if you take that season away, his record is 20-26 with 3 out of 4 losing seasons. Last year was a complete abomination as the Noles were outgained by 132 yards per game in the ACC. Georgia Tech and BC dominated them at the line of scrimmage in the first two games and that pretty much summed up the season for them. They are not well coached. This year they bring in a flotilla of transfers, many of which seem mismatched, and most of whom were somewhat disappointing or attitude problems at their last stop. A couple guys have already been dismissed, and it doesn't seem like the vibe is all that strong. Despite all this, they've been talking shit for some reason, which I'm sure will get Alabama's attention, and they didn't need much to get motivated about because of the season they themselves are coming off of. Among the shit talkers is Thomas Castellanos, who comes in from BC after being benched for the great Grayson James. He's supposed to be a runner but he doesn't run the read option well and he can't throw the ball downfield effectively. It seems a little odd that they're putting their eggs in the Tommy C basket, but the alternative is Brock Glenn, who has proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he can't play worth a shit. Bill O'Brien was more than happy to give Castellanos his walking papers, but hey, I'm sure Mike Norvell can improve on Bill O'Brien's work, right? Bama has their own questions at QB, but I trust Kalen DeBoer enough to believe he'll make major strides now that he has his OC back in Ryan Grubb from Washington. He has two high caliber receivers in Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard and probably the best LT around in Kadyn Proctor to help out Ty Simpson or whoever DeBoer deems worthy of starting. Defensively, they have pros all over the place who chose to come back for another year, and the FSU offense was about the worst in the ACC last year. They've brought guys in, but nowhere near enough to turn this from a woeful offense to an effective one in one year. Gus Malzahn comes in to run the offense, but that thing has stalled significantly the last couple of years. Anything's an upgrade, but I like Kade Wommack's chances in that matchup. FSU might get a nice spark at the outset, but I suspect the game will end up being much too long for them.
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Hate laying this kind of wood but totally agree, worth laying it here. I’ll prob split between 1st half and game remembering all the years bama was a 1st half covering machine which probably isn’t as applicable now, lol.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Feeling better about the Horns as we get closer to game time. Sarkisian has been good in tough road environments over the last couple years, winning at Alabama, Michigan and A&M. The team has also won its last 10 games with 11AM kicks.

Seems like everyone is on Texas right now which is a bit scary (for me at least). Should be interesting.
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At osu and the fact the whole freaking world is in love w arch and texas def scares me. If osu hadn’t lost both coordinators id prob have found a way to talk myself into that, I think that a pretty huge deal tho, especially early in the season. I’ll prob skip playing a side and maybe play live, wish id been paying attention sooner and got down on the under, everything I read or heard is both defenses been looking fantastic:ahead the offenses, still kinda like 1st half under possibly?
 
Br@ssknux said:
4. @Baylor +2.5 v Auburn (BOL) : I was hoping to get this at 3, but I can't even buy it at anything reasonable in my spots so we'll stick to 2.5. Ultimately, there are things to like and not like about both of these teams, but I just cannot trust Hugh Freeze to pull off a clutch win in a big spot against a team that should be primed for a good year. This Baylor offense returns many of the major playmakers that propelled them to a fantastic finish to last year, most notably QB Sawyer Robinson. Once Robinson got settled in and they stopped messing around with Daquan Finn, the Bears averaged 506 yards per game in their last 7. Auburn has a much improved OL and a couple high level receivers(assuming Eric Singleton plays), but Jackson Arnold was mostly not good in what turned out to be a terrible spot for him at Oklahoma. Will he look like his credentials indicated he would coming out of high school? Maybe the change of scenery will help with that, but it's certainly not a "low pressure" spot he's moved to. The juju for Auburn has been horrendous, with comically bad luck and efforts down the stretch in games, and people are correct to be skeptial of Freeze in my opinion. Auburn's gonna have to prove to me that they can take care of business in a spot like this, so I'll take the points with the home dog and hope the offense and home atmosphere carry them.
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I was way too big a buyer on freeze when he went to Auburn and it took a few painful lessons to figure out what a shit show he running (luckily it didn’t take real long!). Just the way he be having a big qb with a strong arm running around all over was beyond redic to me. If I can get any plus money against this dickhead I’ll probably take it!
 
Decided not to add LSU. Thought about it now that it's at 4, but the things I don't like about Clemson are not really the things that LSU can do(run the ball on offense). I'll probably have a little on LSU because I think the hype on Clemson is largely due to a performance against Texas in which they lost by 14 and didn't cover. Don't like it enough to recommend it though.

Might have some additions for Sunday later on, however.
 
Man, some definite "Old Takes Exposed" candidates in here. (Re-read that FSU writeup.....yikes). Gonna finish the recaps but just holding off an anything else. I was close to taking the points with Miami, but don't feel strong enough about it to write it up.

I'll say this though. All of these new or mostly new starting QBs on the top 10 teams have not looked good when challenged in big games. CJ Carr looks like a pretty solid candidate to be the next one who looks like a terrified toddler out there.
 
Yes, as far as Bama goes no discernible adjustments at halftime. Beaten on the LOS on both sides of the ball, especially in pass protection. Thought they could have helped Simpson more with play calling ie run a fucking draw or screens. Bad tackling by Bama on second level. Norvell sacked up going for it on 4th and short only up 7 on own 35. Alabama missed a couple players more than expected.
 
Timh said:
Yes, as far as Bama goes no discernible adjustments at halftime. Beaten on the LOS on both sides of the ball, especially in pass protection. Thought they could have helped Simpson more with play calling ie run a fucking draw or screens. Bad tackling by Bama on second level. Norvell sacked up going for it on 4th and short only up 7 on own 35. Alabama missed a couple players more than expected.
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You are mostly correct, though there were adjustments on defense but they were far too late
 
Recaps finished.

I'm not gonna write anything else up, but it bears mentioning that TCU's last two openers were a couple of stinkers as a pretty significant favorite. Gun to head I'd take the points with North Carolina, but there's so much uncertainty with what the Tar Heels will look like that it's pretty silly to say you've got a true handle on anything.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Recaps finished.

I'm not gonna write anything else up, but it bears mentioning that TCU's last two openers were a couple of stinkers as a pretty significant favorite. Gun to head I'd take the points with North Carolina, but there's so much uncertainty with what the Tar Heels will look like that it's pretty silly to say you've got a true handle on anything.
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100% agree as this will be a rare pass for me as I plan to just enjoy the ride and then watch for the inevitable overreactions either way once the final gun sounds
 
Br@ssknux said:
8. Alabama -14 @Florida State (BOL) : Mike Norvell ain't it. He's 2-11 since his team quit on him in 2023 and if you take that season away, his record is 20-26 with 3 out of 4 losing seasons. Last year was a complete abomination as the Noles were outgained by 132 yards per game in the ACC. Georgia Tech and BC dominated them at the line of scrimmage in the first two games and that pretty much summed up the season for them. They are not well coached. This year they bring in a flotilla of transfers, many of which seem mismatched, and most of whom were somewhat disappointing or attitude problems at their last stop. A couple guys have already been dismissed, and it doesn't seem like the vibe is all that strong. Despite all this, they've been talking shit for some reason, which I'm sure will get Alabama's attention, and they didn't need much to get motivated about because of the season they themselves are coming off of. Among the shit talkers is Thomas Castellanos, who comes in from BC after being benched for the great Grayson James. He's supposed to be a runner but he doesn't run the read option well and he can't throw the ball downfield effectively. It seems a little odd that they're putting their eggs in the Tommy C basket, but the alternative is Brock Glenn, who has proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he can't play worth a shit. Bill O'Brien was more than happy to give Castellanos his walking papers, but hey, I'm sure Mike Norvell can improve on Bill O'Brien's work, right? Bama has their own questions at QB, but I trust Kalen DeBoer enough to believe he'll make major strides now that he has his OC back in Ryan Grubb from Washington. He has two high caliber receivers in Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard and probably the best LT around in Kadyn Proctor to help out Ty Simpson or whoever DeBoer deems worthy of starting. Defensively, they have pros all over the place who chose to come back for another year, and the FSU offense was about the worst in the ACC last year. They've brought guys in, but nowhere near enough to turn this from a woeful offense to an effective one in one year. Gus Malzahn comes in to run the offense, but that thing has stalled significantly the last couple of years. Anything's an upgrade, but I like Kade Wommack's chances in that matchup. FSU might get a nice spark at the outset, but I suspect the game will end up being much too long for them.

I guess Norvell just alternates competence with extreme incompetence year by year? This might be the most laughably off base writeup I've ever done, and that's saying something. Alabama was dominated at the line of scrimmage. I fell for the "Hypothetical Alabama" concept rather than looking at the results of "Actual Alabama" over the past 9 games they've played. This has been mentioned ad nauseum, but DeBoer has now lost outright 5 times as a double digit favorite in 14 total games at Alabama. I've long been an admirer of him, but man, laying major points on the road with them is akin to setting fire to your assets at this point. Ty Simpson was fine throwing that out pattern to Bernard on the left side of the field, but that's about it. Castellanos looked great. Florida State appeared well coached. Old Takes Exposed could put the above paragraph in their hall of fame.
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Nobody should beat themselves up for missing this one. What we saw from Alabama on Saturday is incomprehensible based on what we've heard all offseason, the talent on the roster, De Boer's history, Grubb returning, etc. FSU took the fight to Alabama and they deserve full credit for that, but that was just an inexcusable and unexplainable effort from Alabama. And just to make myself feel better, it's only 4 losses to double digit favorites. We were only 3.5 point faves at Tenn last year
 
gps_3 said:
Nobody should beat themselves up for missing this one. What we saw from Alabama on Saturday is incomprehensible based on what we've heard all offseason, the talent on the roster, De Boer's history, Grubb returning, etc. FSU took the fight to Alabama and they deserve full credit for that, but that was just an inexcusable and unexplainable effort from Alabama. And just to make myself feel better, it's only 4 losses to double digit favorites. We were only 3.5 point faves at Tenn last year
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Ah yes, my bad. I heard that somewhere and did not double check.
 
gps_3 said:
Nobody should beat themselves up for missing this one. What we saw from Alabama on Saturday is incomprehensible based on what we've heard all offseason, the talent on the roster, De Boer's history, Grubb returning, etc. FSU took the fight to Alabama and they deserve full credit for that, but that was just an inexcusable and unexplainable effort from Alabama. And just to make myself feel better, it's only 4 losses to double digit favorites. We were only 3.5 point faves at Tenn last year
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I disagree. I can tell you the “what we’ve heard” is nothing w/o Saban.
GPS I see a disaster brewing honestly…
 
twinkie13 said:
I disagree. I can tell you the “what we’ve heard” is nothing w/o Saban.
GPS I see a disaster brewing honestly…
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I doubt it's disaster, at least in the usual sense. Disaster for Alabama standards maybe. This team needs to get back on the field pronto
 
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