Week 1 Write-Ups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Well, I'm obviously glad to be back talking about college football with all the solid cappers here. Still traveling for work and this year I'll be tied up a bit more with my youngest and her various endeavors, but I'm hoping to be a regular contributor this year.

12 team playoff this year. People have been screaming for this(or something like it) for as long as I can remember...at least 25 years. I can definitely agree that the postseason is going to be bonkers, but we'll see how this affects the college football experience as a whole. I think it would behoove CFB to avoid the temptation of trying to ape the NFL. This might be the first year that things like "load management" creep into the game. Whatever...I'm just ready to get the games going.

Jacksonville State -2.5 LOSS
Minnesota +2.5 WIN (Always take the points folks)
Stanford +9.5 WIN
Penn State -8 WIN
Florida +2.5 LOSS
Colorado State +34 LOSSSSSSSSSS
UNLV +3 WIN
Fresno State +21 WIN
Wyoming +7 LOSS (Gonna call this one in the second quarter)
Nevada +8.5 WIN
USC +4.5 WIN


7-4



Thursday night:

1. @Jacksonville State -2.5 v Coastal Carolina: (-110 available at BetMGM, some others) I'm sure I've mentioned that I am not a fan of Tim Beck, and I'm sure there are plenty of other people that share that rather obvious opinion. Since he was OC at Ohio State, his results have been underwhelming, including a demotion at Texas when he was OC there. He then went to NC State, where in three years his offenses ranked 73rd, 45th and 115th in yards per play. NC State fans all the way down the Eastern seaboard needed reconstructive shoulder surgery from the enthusiastic fist pumps when Coastal took Beck off their hands, and although Coastal wasn't terrible last year, that was mostly due to the positive residue still present from the Jamey Chadwell era. Now Beck will put his stamp on the program, and I don't think Chanticleer fans are going to like the result. Ultimately, this looks like a matchup of programs going in different directions. The Gamecocks won 9 games under RichRod in their first crack at FBS and they proved to be a reliable team that found ways to win. When these two teams played last year, Coastal won in Conway, but the game was even in yardage and it was only JSU's third game in FBS. The Chants also had arguably one of the best group of 5 QBs of the past decade still playing and engaged(Grayson McCall), and we saw a huge dropoff after he stopped playing, probably after he had enough of Beck's offensive stylings. JSU was solid defensively last year, especially against the run and looks to be good again this year. QB Logan Smothers has been around forever and ended up with a 6/3 ratio and had 300+ rushing yards in 4 starts last year, which is not surprising in a Rodriguez offense. Ultimately I trust RichRod WAY more to get a W at home than I trust Beck in this situation, especially now that Beck is a year removed from the influence of Chadwell. I'd go to 3 on this but would be a little nervous at 3.5.


The mistake here in hindsight was coming up with a preseason idea and then forcing the play. It also hurt me when I refused to play Vandy due to previous poor ATS performance even though I was convinced VT was going to be hard pressed to cover a big number. In this game, I underestimated how much Jax State was rebuilding as well as Vasko being completely competent back there. This one was over from jump street however. JSU probably won't be this bad again but it clearly wasn't their night.
 
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2. @Minnesota +2.5 (BOL -115) v North Carolina: I typically shy away from also ran Big 10 teams in the non-conference, but I think this one has value with the Gophers. First of all, Minnesota and Fleck REALLY need this game. A high profile home game in a season without a lot of gimmes on the schedule. If the Gophers fancy themselves a bowl team, they're going to need to get this one. On the flip side, this looks like a game UNC can explain away if they lose...first game without Drake Maye, rebuilt offensive line, new DC, etc. Ultimately, I like the motivation edge for the Gophers in this one. Also, if you look at last year's game, it was a 31-13 game almost entirely because of the Pacific Ocean sized gulf between the QBs. Maye had 400+ yards passing while Kaliakmanis stumbled around to the tune of 11/30 and 130 yards. Both of those guys are gone and Minnesota really likes new QB Max Brosmer, a kid who threw for a 3500 yards and a 29/5 ratio in FCS last year. UNC brings in journeyman Max Johnson, who isn't bad, but Mack Brown is droning on about splitting time between Johnson and backup Conner Harrell, who apparently is more athletic. If Brown messes around with that, I don't like their chances because they have plenty on the perimeter returning, and they'd be smart to just leave Johnson alone for his workmanlike 235 yards. The problem for UNC is not only Mack Brown, but the fact that they got manhandled in the run game on both sides of the ball in the game last year. Darius Taylor ran for 138 yards on 22 carries, and Omarrion Hampton and his backup couldn't combine to crack 3 yards per carry between them on 24 carries, and now the Heels have to replace 4 of their 5 starters from last year's OL. The Gophers return all but one from the front 7 and also welcome back stud LB Cory Lindenberg who missed last year's game. The Gopher OL is back intact and should be one of the better units in the Big Ten, so I think they'll be able to run like Fleck prefers. Throw in the fact that UNC is 1-5-1 as a road favorite since 2021, and Mack Brown certainly ain't getting any more resourceful in his advanced age, and it all adds up to a pretty strong preference for the home dog in this one.

Minnesota probably should have won this game. Fleck shot himself in the foot by being satisfied with a 40+ yard FG attempt with a kicker who already doinked a 27 yarder. They didn't really try to get closer due to his crippling risk aversion. Well PJ, now you've got a win aversion. Some terrible playcalling in previous trips to the red zone as well. Taking the points there was the right call. Those teams were really evenly matched.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
Well, I'm obviously glad to be back talking about college football with all the solid cappers here. Still traveling for work and this year I'll be tied up a bit more with my youngest and her various endeavors, but I'm hoping to be a regular contributor this year.

12 team playoff this year. People have been screaming for this(or something like it) for as long as I can remember...at least 25 years. I can definitely agree that the postseason is going to be bonkers, but we'll see how this affects the college football experience as a whole. I think it would behoove CFB to avoid the temptation of trying to ape the NFL. This might be the first year that things like "load management" creep into the game. Whatever...I'm just ready to get the games going.

Thursday night:

1. @Jacksonville State -2.5 v Coastal Carolina: (-110 available at BetMGM, some others) I'm sure I've mentioned that I am not a fan of Tim Beck, and I'm sure there are plenty of other people that share that rather obvious opinion. Since he was OC at Ohio State, his results have been underwhelming, including a demotion at Texas when he was OC there. He then went to NC State, where in three years his offenses ranked 73rd, 45th and 115th in yards per play. NC State fans all the way down the Eastern seaboard needed reconstructive shoulder surgery from the enthusiastic fist pumps when Coastal took Beck off their hands, and although Coastal wasn't terrible last year, that was mostly due to the positive residue still present from the Jamey Chadwell era. Now Beck will put his stamp on the program, and I don't think Chanticleer fans are going to like the result. Ultimately, this looks like a matchup of programs going in different directions. The Gamecocks won 9 games under RichRod in their first crack at FBS and they proved to be a reliable team that found ways to win. When these two teams played last year, Coastal won in Conway, but the game was even in yardage and it was only JSU's third game in FBS. The Chants also had arguably one of the best group of 5 QBs of the past decade still playing and engaged(Grayson McCall), and we saw a huge dropoff after he stopped playing, probably after he had enough of Beck's offensive stylings. JSU was solid defensively last year, especially against the run and looks to be good again this year. QB Logan Smothers has been around forever and ended up with a 6/3 ratio and had 300+ rushing yards in 4 starts last year, which is not surprising in a Rodriguez offense. Ultimately I trust RichRod WAY more to get a W at home than I trust Beck in this situation, especially now that Beck is a year removed from the influence of Chadwell. I'd go to 3 on this but would be a little nervous at 3.5
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Great stuff here.

I'll likely just take the ML but do feel JSU should win this by 7-10 points.

Beck, bad, as noted.
 
B.A.R. said:
I'll take this to Big Ten thread but we need to sort out the Taylor injury.
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Great to hear from you BAR!! They've been mum on Taylor, and it would be a blow if he is limited or out, but Fleck has proven he can fill in guys at RB. They've got Major from Oklahoma and the kid from Ohio backing him up, plus they still have Nubin, who I think was their 5th string guy(??) last year and he ran for 200+ in a Big Ten game last year.

I'm a little worried about some rumors that WR Jackson is hobbled also, but the beat guys there seem to think he's good to go.
 
I know you said you’d be busier this year, but I hope you can find the time to do your same
Format as last year….love the recaps after your write ups!!!

And you may get to these games, but would love to hear about LSU/USC and Vandy/Va Tech if you can!
 
Br@ssknux said:
Well, I'm obviously glad to be back talking about college football with all the solid cappers here. Still traveling for work and this year I'll be tied up a bit more with my youngest and her various endeavors, but I'm hoping to be a regular contributor this year.

12 team playoff this year. People have been screaming for this(or something like it) for as long as I can remember...at least 25 years. I can definitely agree that the postseason is going to be bonkers, but we'll see how this affects the college football experience as a whole. I think it would behoove CFB to avoid the temptation of trying to ape the NFL. This might be the first year that things like "load management" creep into the game. Whatever...I'm just ready to get the games going.

Thursday night:

1. @Jacksonville State -2.5 v Coastal Carolina: (-110 available at BetMGM, some others) I'm sure I've mentioned that I am not a fan of Tim Beck, and I'm sure there are plenty of other people that share that rather obvious opinion. Since he was OC at Ohio State, his results have been underwhelming, including a demotion at Texas when he was OC there. He then went to NC State, where in three years his offenses ranked 73rd, 45th and 115th in yards per play. NC State fans all the way down the Eastern seaboard needed reconstructive shoulder surgery from the enthusiastic fist pumps when Coastal took Beck off their hands, and although Coastal wasn't terrible last year, that was mostly due to the positive residue still present from the Jamey Chadwell era. Now Beck will put his stamp on the program, and I don't think Chanticleer fans are going to like the result. Ultimately, this looks like a matchup of programs going in different directions. The Gamecocks won 9 games under RichRod in their first crack at FBS and they proved to be a reliable team that found ways to win. When these two teams played last year, Coastal won in Conway, but the game was even in yardage and it was only JSU's third game in FBS. The Chants also had arguably one of the best group of 5 QBs of the past decade still playing and engaged(Grayson McCall), and we saw a huge dropoff after he stopped playing, probably after he had enough of Beck's offensive stylings. JSU was solid defensively last year, especially against the run and looks to be good again this year. QB Logan Smothers has been around forever and ended up with a 6/3 ratio and had 300+ rushing yards in 4 starts last year, which is not surprising in a Rodriguez offense. Ultimately I trust RichRod WAY more to get a W at home than I trust Beck in this situation, especially now that Beck is a year removed from the influence of Chadwell. I'd go to 3 on this but would be a little nervous at 3.5
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You really sold me on Jax State. Makes a long of sense.
 
twinkie13 said:
I know you said you’d be busier this year, but I hope you can find the time to do your same
Format as last year….love the recaps after your write ups!!!

And you may get to these games, but would love to hear about LSU/USC and Vandy/Va Tech if you can!
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I'm glad you mentioned the recaps. Those are useful to me as well because you never get better unless you are reminded of what idiotic things you assumed or forgot to consider. It's 20/20 hindsight, but that's what we learn from.

I need to marinate on USC and LSU for awhile before I make a decision on that one. Lean LSU but I think USC's defense is going to be much better this year with Lynn at DC.

As for Vandy/VT, I really want to take with Vandy, but they've been so bad ATS in every way imaginable that it's a tough sell for myself. VT is getting all kinds of positive pub, but I am skeptical. Everything they accomplished last year was at the expense of shit competition. They beat nobody. Anyone with a pulse pushed them around, including Rutgers and Purdue. They got some momentum in their bowl game but only because Tulane barely showed up with half their team leaving and Fritz out the door. Their schedule is a joke this year and they have experience returning so they'll probably have a good record, but are they actually good? I still don't know if Pry is worth a shit. They strike me as a team that you would not want to lay points with.

Hope that helps, and thanks for the kind words as always Twink. 🤝
 
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Br@ssknux said:
I'm glad you mentioned the recaps. Those are useful to me as well because you never get better unless you are reminded of what idiotic things you assumed or forgot to consider. It's 20/20 hindsight, but that's what we learn from.

I need to marinate on USC and LSU for awhile before I make a decision on that one. Lean LSU, but I think USC's defense is going to be much better this year with Lynn at DC.

As for Vandy/VT, I really want to take with Vandy, but they've been so bad ATS in every way imaginable that it's a tough sell for myself. VT is getting all kinds of positive pub, but I am skeptical. Everything they accomplished last year was at the expense of shit competition. They beat nobody. Anyone with a pulse pushed them around, including Rutgers and Purdue. They got some momentum in their bowl game but only because Tulane barely showed up with half their team leaving and Fritz out the door. Their schedule is a joke this year and they have experience returning so they'll probably have a good record, but are they actually good? I still don't know if Pry is worth a shit. They strike me as a team that you would not want to lay points with.

Hope that helps, and thanks for the kind words as always Twink. 🤝
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Upon closer inspection, not sure I lean LSU.
 
Friday:

3. @Stanford +9.5 v TCU: Although Stanford has been a historically bad home dog over the past few years, and frankly, the Cardinal doesn't enjoy much of a home field advantage in Palo Alto, I really like their chances to cover this. We can forget about the previous years because after observing troy Taylor in his first season, it's apparent that the man knows what he's doing. He had to start from absolute scratch and had 7 ranked teams on the schedule but found a way to win 3 games and almost shocked undefeated Washington. One benefit of starting from scratch is that you'll return everyone, and with more time with these guys, who clearly are not dummies, should bode well. The Cardinal defense was a disaster last year, but 12 of their top 15 tacklers return, so they will almost certainly be better in year 2 of their scheme. Offensively, they are very tricky to figure out with all kinds of pre snap movement. Ashton Daniels is back at QB, and Taylor uses him in the run game effectively. The major strength of the team is at WR, where the top 3 return, including leading receiver Elic Ayomanor who exploded late last year and topped 1,000 yards at 16.5 yards per reception. All 5 of the offensive lineman return, so their continuity and grasp of the offense should allow them to run the ball more effectively than they did last year. As for TCU, I don't like them laying points on the road in this one. I'm a Dykes fan, but I am not sold on Josh Hover at QB. He compiled some decent counting stats once Chandler Morris went down, but he looked like a deer in headlights when pressured and they are replacing a lot on the offensive line. Defensively, they fired DC Joe Gillespie(who I really like), and brought in former Boise HC Andy Avalos who you might remember was launched midseason by the Broncos amidst what a appeared to be a mutiny. As soon as he was jettisoned, Boise reeled off enough wins in a row to win the Mountain West. As a DC at both Boise and Oregon before that he was underwhelming. Now he has to ingratiate himself with his new guys and install a new system, and this was a defense that underachieved last year with a DC who in my opinion is significantly better than Avalos. It's also going to be a tall task to match wits with Taylor and the deceptive offense that they'll be confronted with Friday night. I just don't like the vibe with the Frogs here, and I think they'll be fortunate to get out of palo Alto with a win. Stanford's still learning how to win, but I think TCU is likely to make a lot of mistakes in this one. I'd probably play this one down to 6 or so.

This was a strange one. Almost a horrific beat when Taylor went for it on 4th and forever from his own 19 with 3 timeouts in his pocket down 3. Then we get a long field goal to get under the number. For Stanford to cover this despite having a C- game on offense I think underscores how hard it is for a middling, mistake prone team like TCU to cover 9.5 on the road in situations like this.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
Friday:

3. @Stanford +9.5 v TCU: Although Stanford has been a historically bad home dog over the past few years, and frankly, the Cardinal doesn't enjoy much of a home field advantage in Palo Alto, I really like their chances to cover this. We can forget about the previous years because after observing troy Taylor in his first season, it's apparent that the man knows what he's doing. He had to start from absolute scratch and had 7 ranked teams on the schedule but found a way to win 3 games and almost shocked undefeated Washington. One benefit of starting from scratch is that you'll return everyone, and with more time with these guys, who clearly are not dummies, should bode well. The Cardinal defense was a disaster last year, but 12 of their top 15 tacklers return, so they will almost certainly be better in year 2 of their scheme. Offensively, they are very tricky to figure out with all kinds of pre snap movement. Ashton Daniels is back at QB, and Taylor uses him in the run game effectively. The major strength of the team is at WR, where the top 3 return, including leading receiver Elic Ayomanor who exploded late last year and topped 1,000 yards at 16.5 yards per reception. All 5 of the offensive lineman return, so their continuity and grasp of the offense should allow them to run the ball more effectively than they did last year. As for TCU, I don't like them laying points on the road in this one. I'm a Dykes fan, but I am not sold on Josh Hover at QB. He compiled some decent counting stats once Chandler Morris went down, but he looked like a deer in headlights when pressured and they are replacing a lot on the offensive line. Defensively, they fired DC Joe Gillespie(who I really like), and brought in former Boise HC Andy Avalos who you might remember was launched midseason by the Broncos amidst what a appeared to be a mutiny. As soon as he was jettisoned, Boise reeled off enough wins in a row to win the Mountain West. As a DC at both Boise and Oregon before that he was underwhelming. Now he has to ingratiate himself with his new guys and install a new system, and this was a defense that underachieved last year with a DC who in my opinion is significantly better than Avalos. It's also going to be a tall task to match wits with Taylor and the deceptive offense that they'll be confronted with Friday night. I just don't like the vibe with the Frogs here, and I think they'll be fortunate to get out of palo Alto with a win. Stanford's still learning how to win, but I think TCU is likely to make a lot of mistakes in this one. I'd probably play this one down to 6 or so.
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I live near Palo Alto and you’re right. Not much of a homefield advantage. They do have a lot of fans attending but not fanatics. The alumni is pretty chill. Can’t trust TCU laying those kind of points on the road. GL
 
Br@ssknux said:
I'm glad you mentioned the recaps. Those are useful to me as well because you never get better unless you are reminded of what idiotic things you assumed or forgot to consider. It's 20/20 hindsight, but that's what we learn from.

I need to marinate on USC and LSU for awhile before I make a decision on that one. Lean LSU but I think USC's defense is going to be much better this year with Lynn at DC.

As for Vandy/VT, I really want to take with Vandy, but they've been so bad ATS in every way imaginable that it's a tough sell for myself. VT is getting all kinds of positive pub, but I am skeptical. Everything they accomplished last year was at the expense of shit competition. They beat nobody. Anyone with a pulse pushed them around, including Rutgers and Purdue. They got some momentum in their bowl game but only because Tulane barely showed up with half their team leaving and Fritz out the door. Their schedule is a joke this year and they have experience returning so they'll probably have a good record, but are they actually good? I still don't know if Pry is worth a shit. They strike me as a team that you would not want to lay points with.

Hope that helps, and thanks for the kind words as always Twink. 🤝
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Gotta think with Pavia at QB Vandy will at least move the ball some and hopefully put up some points....their defense isn't great, but being on the field all day doesn't help.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I'm glad you mentioned the recaps. Those are useful to me as well because you never get better unless you are reminded of what idiotic things you assumed or forgot to consider. It's 20/20 hindsight, but that's what we learn from.

I need to marinate on USC and LSU for awhile before I make a decision on that one. Lean LSU but I think USC's defense is going to be much better this year with Lynn at DC.

As for Vandy/VT, I really want to take with Vandy, but they've been so bad ATS in every way imaginable that it's a tough sell for myself. VT is getting all kinds of positive pub, but I am skeptical. Everything they accomplished last year was at the expense of shit competition. They beat nobody. Anyone with a pulse pushed them around, including Rutgers and Purdue. They got some momentum in their bowl game but only because Tulane barely showed up with half their team leaving and Fritz out the door. Their schedule is a joke this year and they have experience returning so they'll probably have a good record, but are they actually good? I still don't know if Pry is worth a shit. They strike me as a team that you would not want to lay points with.

Hope that helps, and thanks for the kind words as always Twink. 🤝
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I think we should expect some improvement on defense from both USC and LSU. I lean toward LSU but what is keeping me from pulling the trigger is if LSUs pass defense will get lit up
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Gotta think with Pavia at QB Vandy will at least move the ball some and hopefully put up some points....their defense isn't great, but being on the field all day doesn't help.
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We'll see. As I mentioned, I can see a scenario where VT shits the bed in the favorite's role, but Vandy has been so bad in all ATS scenarios that I can't justify backing them. Pavia and his OC might make a difference. I hope so!
 
Dollaz said:
I think we should expect some improvement on defense from both USC and LSU. I lean toward LSU but what is keeping me from pulling the trigger is if LSUs pass defense will get lit up
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Gonna have a write up on that one I think.

Hey Dollaz, what's your thoughts on ODU? Schedule looks really tough but the Monarchs have been good for me the past couple of years.
 
Saturday:

4. Penn State -8 @West Virginia: I'm going to go ahead and write this up at 8 because I'm perfectly fine with the value at the current number, but all the momentum is on the West Virginia side in the market so if you wait, you might be able to get it even lower than this. Playing road favorites in situations like this (early in the season, staff changes, etc) but things change when it's James Franklin as a favorite, especially on the road(where he's covered 9 of the last 10 in the road favorite role). Penn State scored with 6 seconds left to cover in the game last year, and I was on the wrong side of that one, but I learned my lesson. There are scenarios to fade James Franklin, but this is not one of them. West Virginia has a clear plan on offense, and that is to bludgeon opposing defenses with their run game, which includes using QB Garrett Greene who is a load in his own right. It was successful last year as the Mountaineers wildly exceeded expectations on the way to a 9-4 record and blow out win over UNC in the Mayo Bowl. Unfortunately for them, Penn State was the #1 run defense in the country last year and looks to be among the best front 7's in the country again this year. WVU had some success on the ground in the game last year, but all i t amounted to was about 4 yards per carry and 16 points. This year Brown has to replace a couple starters. They'll be fine on the line, but I don't see them having success running the ball. If they can't and they fall behind, the 'Neers are in trouble because that defense is probably going to be their Achilles heel. They return only 5 starters from a D that ranked low in just about every category. They couldn't stop the run(89th), didn't force any turnovers(100th in takeaways), and perhaos worst of all, WVU was the only defense all year that got torched by Drew Allar. The PSU offensive staff spent most of the year completely forbidding Allar to throw the ball more than a couple yards downfield, but in the opener against WVU? 11.6 yards per attempt and 3 scores with no picks. Now Penn State brings in former Kansas OC Andy Koltenicki and his pre snap motion nightmare of an offense for West Virginia to contend with. If Mike Yurcich's offense could torch them, I'm pretty sure Kotelnicki will figure out ways to move the ball as well. I'm a little lower than everyone else on new DC Tom Allen for PSU, but he's got a lot to work with. Even if this game gets played down to the wire, Franklin has shown that he cares about the spread, and has pulled covers out of his ass several times the past couple of years. I'll roll the dice with him in a role he's been a cash register in.

Solid handicap here.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
Gonna have a write up on that one I think.

Hey Dollaz, what's your thoughts on ODU? Schedule looks really tough but the Monarchs have been good for me the past couple of years.
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I usually do a full writeup on my on thread but I will just put it here. I will say that it is VERY difficult to handicap nowadays because of all the portal activity and its difficult to get a gauge on how the newcomers will do.

Grant Wilson is supposedly much improved but he was very inaccurate last year expect for a few deep balls. They were all or nothing, either hit deep shots/long TD runs or they would struggle. Im hoping what I've heard is true though. I think they will be fine at RB. The OL is a big concern after last year but another spot where its difficult to gauge because there are transfers. I've heard good things at the skill positions but have heard literally nothing about OL.

The defense was statistically ok last year but I hated the bend but dont break combined with no TOP on offense. I have less issues with the pace the offense plays, but the defense couldn't get off the field. They replaced the entire secondary but the front 7 should be pretty solid.

Id say the team will be a little better this year but the schedule is absurd.
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. @Minnesota +2.5 (BOL -115) v North Carolina: I typically shy away from also ran Big 10 teams in the non-conference, but I think this one has value with the Gophers. First of all, Minnesota and Fleck REALLY need this game. A high profile home game in a season without a lot of gimmes on the schedule. If the Gophers fancy themselves a bowl team, they're going to need to get this one. On the flip side, this looks like a game UNC can explain away if they lose...first game without Drake Maye, rebuilt offensive line, new DC, etc. Ultimately, I like the motivation edge for the Gophers in this one. Also, if you look at last year's game, it was a 31-13 game almost entirely because of the Pacific Ocean sized gulf between the QBs. Maye had 400+ yards passing while Kaliakmanis stumbled around to the tune of 11/30 and 130 yards. Both of those guys are gone and Minnesota really likes new QB Max Brosmer, a kid who threw for a 3500 yards and a 29/5 ratio in FCS last year. UNC brings in journeyman Max Johnson, who isn't bad, but Mack Brown is droning on about splitting time between Johnson and backup Conner Harrell, who apparently is more athletic. If Brown messes around with that, I don't like their chances because they have plenty on the perimeter returning, and they'd be smart to just leave Johnson alone for his workmanlike 235 yards. The problem for UNC is not only Mack Brown, but the fact that they got manhandled in the run game on both sides of the ball in the game last year. Darius Taylor ran for 138 yards on 22 carries, and Omarrion Hampton and his backup couldn't combine to crack 3 yards per carry between them on 24 carries, and now the Heels have to replace 4 of their 5 starters from last year's OL. The Gophers return all but one from the front 7 and also welcome back stud LB Cory Lindenberg who missed last year's game. The Gopher OL is back intact and should be one of the better units in the Big Ten, so I think they'll be able to run like Fleck prefers. Throw in the fact that UNC is 1-5-1 as a road favorite since 2021, and Mack Brown certainly ain't getting any more resourceful in his advanced age, and it all adds up to a pretty strong preference for the home dog in this one.
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Lots of rain in the forecast here tonight.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Saturday:

4. Penn State -8 @West Virginia: I'm going to go ahead and write this up at 8 because I'm perfectly fine with the value at the current number, but all the momentum is on the West Virginia side in the market so if you wait, you might be able to get it even lower than this. Playing road favorites in situations like this (early in the season, staff changes, etc) but things change when it's James Franklin as a favorite, especially on the road(where he's covered 9 of the last 10 in the road favorite role). Penn State scored with 6 seconds left to cover in the game last year, and I was on the wrong side of that one, but I learned my lesson. There are scenarios to fade James Franklin, but this is not one of them. West Virginia has a clear plan on offense, and that is to bludgeon opposing defenses with their run game, which includes using QB Garrett Greene who is a load in his own right. It was successful last year as the Mountaineers wildly exceeded expectations on the way to a 9-4 record and blow out win over UNC in the Mayo Bowl. Unfortunately for them, Penn State was the #1 run defense in the country last year and looks to be among the best front 7's in the country again this year. WVU had some success on the ground in the game last year, but all i t amounted to was about 4 yards per carry and 16 points. This year Brown has to replace a couple starters. They'll be fine on the line, but I don't see them having success running the ball. If they can't and they fall behind, the 'Neers are in trouble because that defense is probably going to be their Achilles heel. They return only 5 starters from a D that ranked low in just about every category. They couldn't stop the run(89th), didn't force any turnovers(100th in takeaways), and perhaos worst of all, WVU was the only defense all year that got torched by Drew Allar. The PSU offensive staff spent most of the year completely forbidding Allar to throw the ball more than a couple yards downfield, but in the opener against WVU? 11.6 yards per attempt and 3 scores with no picks. Now Penn State brings in former Kansas OC Andy Koltenicki and his pre snap motion nightmare of an offense for West Virginia to contend with. If Mike Yurcich's offense could torch them, I'm pretty sure Kotelnicki will figure out ways to move the ball as well. I'm a little lower than everyone else on new DC Tom Allen for PSU, but he's got a lot to work with. Even if this game gets played down to the wire, Franklin has shown that he cares about the spread, and has pulled covers out of his ass several times the past couple of years. I'll roll the dice with him in a role he's been a cash register in.
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Same page here
 
P-Unit said:
Lots of rain in the forecast here tonight.
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Yep. Looks like it's gonna be raining for most if not all of the game. Also, Taylor ruled out for Minny. Has not moved the line though. Still like the Gophers though that reduces their ability to be explosive.
 
Also, let's all remember....it's weather delay season. Over/Under for weather delays for Week 1 is set at 9.5. Already a couple.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Saturday:

4. Penn State -8 @West Virginia: I'm going to go ahead and write this up at 8 because I'm perfectly fine with the value at the current number, but all the momentum is on the West Virginia side in the market so if you wait, you might be able to get it even lower than this. Playing road favorites in situations like this (early in the season, staff changes, etc) but things change when it's James Franklin as a favorite, especially on the road(where he's covered 9 of the last 10 in the road favorite role). Penn State scored with 6 seconds left to cover in the game last year, and I was on the wrong side of that one, but I learned my lesson. There are scenarios to fade James Franklin, but this is not one of them. West Virginia has a clear plan on offense, and that is to bludgeon opposing defenses with their run game, which includes using QB Garrett Greene who is a load in his own right. It was successful last year as the Mountaineers wildly exceeded expectations on the way to a 9-4 record and blow out win over UNC in the Mayo Bowl. Unfortunately for them, Penn State was the #1 run defense in the country last year and looks to be among the best front 7's in the country again this year. WVU had some success on the ground in the game last year, but all i t amounted to was about 4 yards per carry and 16 points. This year Brown has to replace a couple starters. They'll be fine on the line, but I don't see them having success running the ball. If they can't and they fall behind, the 'Neers are in trouble because that defense is probably going to be their Achilles heel. They return only 5 starters from a D that ranked low in just about every category. They couldn't stop the run(89th), didn't force any turnovers(100th in takeaways), and perhaos worst of all, WVU was the only defense all year that got torched by Drew Allar. The PSU offensive staff spent most of the year completely forbidding Allar to throw the ball more than a couple yards downfield, but in the opener against WVU? 11.6 yards per attempt and 3 scores with no picks. Now Penn State brings in former Kansas OC Andy Koltenicki and his pre snap motion nightmare of an offense for West Virginia to contend with. If Mike Yurcich's offense could torch them, I'm pretty sure Kotelnicki will figure out ways to move the ball as well. I'm a little lower than everyone else on new DC Tom Allen for PSU, but he's got a lot to work with. Even if this game gets played down to the wire, Franklin has shown that he cares about the spread, and has pulled covers out of his ass several times the past couple of years. I'll roll the dice with him in a role he's been a cash register in.
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Peanut Head is 19-4-1 ATS at PSU when favored by a TD or more. (McMurphy)

Damn remarkable.
 
5. @Florida +2.5(BOL) v Miami: I got 3 on this game yesterday but now as I write it up, I can't find 3 anywhere so I'll use 2.5. We all know that Florida has a gauntlet of a schedule ahead of them, especially in the last month or so, but I think the spot here is pretty good for the Gators. A lot of people are high on Miami, but that's nothing new because people are high on Miami in the preseason every year. In the last 3 years they were ranked in the preseason or in the first week or two of the season and end up unranked. People are high on them this year mostly because of what they brought in through the transfer portal. They reportedly spent a fortune to win the Cam Ward sweepstakes to get him from Washington State, but Ward has been very up and down, and based on what he's done since he's gotten to Florida, I would take Graham Mertz in a choice between these two QBs. Ward is very streaky and mistake prone and has had complete stinkers on the road. Last year he turned the ball over 19 times himself via INT and lost fumbles. Considering the money Miami has spent on Ward and other transfers(including RB Damien Martinez who has made me lots of money), there is a lot of pressure on Cristobal and the team to compete for the playoff, and I think ALL the pressure is going to be on the Canes in this one. When you look at the win total for Florida and consider the expectations for Miami, this seems like a no brainer, but the line is where it is for a reason. As I mentioned, Graham Mertz has been very good at Florida, hitting 73% of his passes last year in the SEC with a 20/3 ratio. He won't be startled by this Miami defense. He also has better weapons on the outside. Elijah Badger comes in from Arizona State having hauled in 65 balls for almost 800 yards with one of the worst QB situations in the country. He also has old friend Chimre Dike from Wisconsin and speed merchant Eugene Wilson back after catching 60 balls as a true freshman last year. Florida has not been a home dog often, but they've covered 3 out of 4 when they have been and Miami has been an ATS wasteland under Cristobal (8-17 overall). As always when getting a small number, take those points rather than focusing on the ML because they are likely to matter. Should be a great atmosphere in the swamp. Ultimately, although I like some guys on Miami(Restrepo and Martinez especially), there's a lot of gelling that has to happen with these transfers, and the pressure on the Canes might make a big difference in this one.

UN-solid handicap here. This was more hope than substance in hindsight, although I was surprised at how bad Mertz was. I can't get over how terrible Florida looked. It was a total embarrassment for them. They just chose to not cover anyone who went out for a forward pass. They looked completely lost on defense. Kudos to Miami though. I still think Ward is susceptible to big mistakes if he's pressured, but Florida wasn't up to that task(which I should have been able to decipher) and Ward tore them apart. Restrepo is awesome. Miami looks like the clear ACC favorite now. If you're gonna lose, might as well lose big.
 
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6. Colorado State +34 @Texas: Maybe I'm a square but this one seems like too many points for me. Texas had major problems against good passing attacks last year and there remain a lot of question marks in the secondary this year. The combo of Brayden Fowler Nicolosi and Tory Horton is one of the best returning passing connections in the country as Horton had 96 catches for 1136 yards and 8 scores last year. Texas has plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball but hey have to replace 2 of the best defensive linemen they've had in the past decade in Sweat and Murphy. Texas has a road game with Michigan on deck, so I doubt they'll be interested in putting a ton on tape. Ewers has a tendency to look quite pedestrian in games like this. 34 is a lot of points to cover against a team that has the potential to throw a few TDs on the board, and although this Ram defense won't scare anyone, they should be better than they were last year now that Norvell has had more time to get his system in place.

Colorado State looked like they had no interest in being there. BFN to Horton was only a rumor as Fowler Nicolosi couldn't do anything. Colorado State's defense was awful, which was somewhat expected but I didn't expect a complete no show from the RAM passing game. Their RB ran it well, which was interesting. Texas will need to improve there going into Ann Arbor.
 
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7. UNLV +3 @Houston: UNLV loses Freshman sensation QB Jordan Maiava(USC) from last year, but I think the real reason for UNLV's dynamite offensive performance last year was the go go offense of OC Brandon Marion, who to my surprise was not plucked by a bigger program. It also doesn't hurt that you have WR Ricky White who torched college football for 1483 receiving yards last year. Now they bring in two FCS QBs to take over, Matthew Sluka, a bruising runner from Holy Cross and Hahj-Malik Williams, who threw for 8200+ yards in 5 years at Campbell. Both were very accomplished in their careers, and both I believe can be very effective in Marion's offense, which like Andy Kotelnicki and troy Taylor's schemes, uses tricky pre snap motion. Houston brings in Willie Fritz and his DC Shiel Wood, both of whom I like, but it is going to be really hard for a group of kids learning a new system to take off the training wheels against this offense. Also, I think the personnel is a little mis matched for what Fritz likes to do offensively, which is run. He's got a dynamic athlete in Donavan Smith at QB, but he was prone to turnovers, and made a lot more losing plays than winning ones. Throw in the fact that UNLV has been money on the road, especially as a road dog (11-3) while Houston is 3-9 as a home favorite in their last 12 in the role. I like this UNLV staff, and I think whichever QB wins the job can be effective, especially with Ricky White (and Jacob De Jesus, who caught 60 balls last year) coming back. Now that this has gotten to a FG, I like the Rebs here.

Resourceful game for the Rebs, as they handled business without doing much on offense. Kudos to Odom. Fritz will need to figure out something other than making it the Donovan Smith show on offense. He was bad, especially on 3rd down. 2/15. I didn't watch this one close enough to see if that was more a result of the UNLV D or Smith, but I'm happy either way. Ricky White caught 2 passes for 11 yards and UNLV won by 20. Right side for sure. Hopefully they can find ways to get White the ball in the future because he's electric.
 
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8. Fresno State +21 @Michigan: One of the enduring mysteries of this year is trying to figure out how the Wolverines offense is going to be successful when so many of their playmakers(and offensive linemen) are gone. Sherrone Wright proved he can emote at an elite level, but can he run a program? This Michigan thing is kind of a big deal, nit for the faint of heart. We also have no idea if Alex Orji can throw the ball downfield. He better be able to, because the other options are Jack Tuttle, who has proven incompetent for 5 years and a true freshman. Fresno is certainly no pushover. It's too bad that Jeff Tedford had to step away for medical reasons, but Tim Skipper has been part of that staff and it likely gave us more spread value than the change is worth. Michigan's defense is still elite, but Fresno has a capable QB in Mikey Keene and 1300 returning rushing yards behind a line that returns 8 of their top 10 guys from last year. Fresno is a proud program and I think Michigan is going to struggle to score in with all the new parts and a modified staff. Also, Michigan has Texas up next so there might be some looking ahead.

Solid handicap here. Had to sweat it a bit because Keene throw a 90 yard pick 6 when Fresno was about to cut the game to 6 with about 6 minutes left, but the Bulldogs held on for the cover.
 
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9. Wyoming +7 @Arizona State: LET"S GO MOUNTAIN WEST, eh? What has Arizona State done to justify laying 7 against a resourceful, tough program like Wyoming? You're asking the wrong guy, because I don't know, but it certainly isn't because ASU has a competent QB. On the contrary, Sam Leavitt hasn't proven anything other than he wasn't wanted at Michigan State, but at least he can win a QB competition over the human turnover known as Jeff Sims. ASU won 3 games last year and 2 of those were almost completely due to the efforts of Cam Skattebo, the running back who played QB in a wildcat hybrid kind of offense. Wyoming will be without RB Harrison Waylee, which probably accounts for some of the excess spread here, but almost all of the Wyoming OL returns intact and they have always been able to run. QB Evan Swoboda is also huge and will be used in the running game as well. Wyoming also returns 6 of their top 7 tacklers on defense, and the ASU offense they face couldn't do anything if Skattebo was bottled up. Long time coach Craig Bohl retired, but Wyoming promoted his protege Jay Sawvel and kept the staff intact, so i think we can expect the same type of gritty play gong forward from the Cowboys. I'll certainly take my chances with them catching a TD against this ASU outfit.

This was a major surprise. I did not see this coming from both sides. Wyoming was pathetic. At one point in the 3rd quarter I think I saw that the total yards was 355-42 in favor of ASU. Wyoming finished with 117 total yards against a defense that ranked 93rd in yards per play last year. They also got kind of carved up by Sam Leavitt. Again, if you're gonna miss, miss big. Live and learn from this one. I thought Wyoming be similar to the last couple of years. Maybe they will, but holy shit was that a bad performance.
 
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Always enjoy your writeups. With you on Florida.

I see aTm is now -2x at a lot of places, but not where I have an account. You have a feeling for aTm/N Dame?
 
Great stuff knux.....i have to admit I had no clue that Sluka went from HC to UNLV........good luck and have a year

Edit to add that I have very similar thoughts on Ward.....not high on him and think he disappoints overall this year...can be really bad at times...
 
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Br@ssknux said:
6. Colorado State +34 @Texas: Maybe I'm a square but this one seems like too many points for me. Texas had major problems against good passing attacks last year and there remain a lot of question marks in the secondary this year. The combo of Brayden Fowler Nicolosi and Tory Horton is one of the best returning passing connections in the country as Horton had 96 catches for 1136 yards and 8 scores last year. Texas has plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball but hey have to replace 2 of the best defensive linemen they've had in the past decade in Sweat and Murphy. Texas has a road game with Michigan on deck, so I doubt they'll be interested in putting a ton on tape. Ewers has a tendency to look quite pedestrian in games like this. 34 is a lot of points to cover against a team that has the potential to throw a few TDs on the board, and although this Ram defense won't scare anyone, they should be better than they were last year now that Norvell has had more time to get his system in place.
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Nice synopsis. Still no definitive pass rushing threats either for the Horns. Same thing that killed them against UW also makes them susceptible to passing attacks. Sarkisian will probably be pretty vanilla offensively in advance of next weekend.

Feels like a 44-17 type game.
 
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