Post your thoughts!
Week 1 What Are We Learning
- Thread starter VirginiaCavs
- Start date
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
There are a lot of great American pastimes when it comes to the NFL, but nothing may be more sacred than Overreaction Monday after the first Sunday of the season.
Some of the things I'm looking forward to tomorrow:
And on and on. I should say, there are a couple in there that I kind of agree with, btw. But most of it is ridiculous.
I only watched so much football today, so I don't have takes on every game, but one thing that jumped out at me is that I now really think the shortened pre-season favors a specific type of team. Teams that have their roster somewhat set going into camp who take pre-season somewhat seriously seem to be way ahead of those who either needed to figure out their roster (which makes sense because generally they're a bad team to start with) but also those teams that rested their starters.
To me, Cincy looked lost for a good part of that game today. But while I do believe the Super Bowl hangover is a real thing, I also think that all their additions on the OL will need time to jell and that Burrow may need another game to get all of the whiskey and cigars out of his system and be fully engaged in the marathon. I am someone who actually believes the Bengals are going to be OK this year.
On the other side of that game, this sounds kind of awful, but I think losing Watt may kill that Steelers team. Also, Harris went out today so ... They really showed up today, and I don't think anybody is going to pretend Tomlin can't coach. But I think when it's all said and done, this win may be the high point of their season.
I do think people are going to overreact a ton on Green Bay tomorrow too, but don't forget, last year they started the season laying a gigantic egg as well. And then, if you remember, Detroit was kind of punching them in the face and Rodgers flipped the switch. Suddenly he remembered he liked playing football and the next thing you know, they'd won like seven straight. Problem this year is, he no longer has arguably the best WR in the game on his team. I've though all summer that it was going to be a long year for Green Bay and I still believe it. The score today surprised me, and I worry it puts Minny in the spotlight when I—someone who bet them to win the division—would really prefer less pressure on them, but oh well.
Great win for Chicago, and I don't really want to take a lot away from them, but from San Fran's standpoint, I throw that game out. Really tough spot to start a rookie. On the road, in a downpour, I just move on. Huge win for the Bears though.
In the other early games, I couple of things hit me with a couple of specific teams.
The Browns don't look like they trust Jacoby Brissett much at all. Which may not be fair of me to say—especially since I'm someone who's always liked him, and because their running game is so good, they only need the guy to do so much. But the thing, for me, with the Browns is, this team is going to run all over you. And I think people will discount this score and the game, but don't look past this team. I think there's value there.
On the other side, I think Carolina is who you think they are. Cleveland basically dominated this game—but that's when Baker gets dangerous. Because then you take him off the leash and he just does things. I was on the total in this game and the moment I started to feel great about it was when Carolina fell behind by two scores. That's when Baker is going to get you points. It may not be for his team, but they're coming. Which happened today and I think may happen quite a bit this year. It's just who he is.
I lost on Indy today, and one thing that really stood out to me—and I feel bad about this because Frank Reich did a lot for the Birds to win it all—but the coaching from Indy was fucking atrocious. First, late 4th quarter, Indy's driving. Third down they get the ball to midfield setting up a 4th and 1. And not a long 4th and 1. There's like a minute to go, game is tied. They play for OT and punt. With this offense. Then, in OT, they get down inside the 30. A FG wins it, but they waste two downs basically losing three yards a play trying to set the ball up for the winning kick. It was still a 40+ yard FG, what are you doing. Why are you going backwards? Anyway, it's probably just first game jitters or whatever, but it was 'extremely' concerning. Nice moral victory for Houston though.
Last, the Eagles. Because the Eagles are going to the Super Bowl. I kid, I kid. But this was a bit of the other side of the coin from Indy and Cleveland with Brissett. Early in the game, Philly gets inside the 10 for a first and goal. First play, and RPO that Detroit reads perfectly, Philly gets nothing. Second down, as you may imagine, they run and get down to like the three. Third down, they let Hurts kind of roll to his right where maybe he's going to pass, but really it's stretching it out so he can cut it up and score. He doesn't. So now it's 4th and goal. At this point Philly is, if I remember right, still losing the game. Not only do they not take the points, Sirianni gives the ball to Hurts to make the decision. Hurts takes the snap, reads the play, runs it in easily. Point being, to me, you do not do that if you do not trust your QB. Even if you're going to go for it, you can kind of tie his hands. That's not what the Eagles did. It was only one play, but it really suggests to me that they fully trust Hurts to be the guy.
On the other side of the ball for them, though, it felt like that defense let down a lot in the second half. It's only one game, but it's something to watch.
Why I didn't take the over in Detroit (or Arizona) I have no idea. I get that Goff is no Stafford, but Detroit is still Detroit. And dammed if that team doesn't look a lot like all those other teams who get down by 10 and then either lose by 28 or lose by 4 because they trade scores for the final two quarters.
Speaking of Stafford, I'm not sure he's healthy. I think the Rams may have issues because of him and because Ramsey may have gone from shutdown corner to a turnstile in less than a year. Buffalo roasted that guy.
Also, Buffalo is good.
Also, Tua is 3-0 vs. Belicheat.
Also, I stayed off the over in Arizona because the total was so high, but that's dumb because if you just blindly bet the highest total over every week and the lowest total under every week, I believe you generally profit on the season.
Also, I tailed a Giants play and I still have no idea how it hit. I saw a little bit of that first half and that team looked god awful. I believe this is two years in a row where Tenny has lost their home opener.
Oh, last thing, I didn't watch the Chargers game, but the score didn't shock me. I think the Raiders are the AFC West's Detroit. They'll have a game or two where Carr and Adams cook you for 38, but mostly they're going to lose like 31-24.
OK, that's it. For now. Hello all, bye all. Ha.
Some of the things I'm looking forward to tomorrow:
- Trey Lance sucks and the Niners are going to finish below .500
- Green Bay sucks and Aaron Rodgers should retire immediately.
- The Bengals were always frauds and just got hot at the right time last year.
- The Eagles are the real deal and are going to win the Super Bowl.
- Pittsburgh in 2022 is New England in 2021, they're going to fight for a playoff spot and Tomlin may be coach of the year.
- Arizona's done.
- The Raiders are done.
- The Rams are done.
- Dallas is done.
And on and on. I should say, there are a couple in there that I kind of agree with, btw. But most of it is ridiculous.
I only watched so much football today, so I don't have takes on every game, but one thing that jumped out at me is that I now really think the shortened pre-season favors a specific type of team. Teams that have their roster somewhat set going into camp who take pre-season somewhat seriously seem to be way ahead of those who either needed to figure out their roster (which makes sense because generally they're a bad team to start with) but also those teams that rested their starters.
To me, Cincy looked lost for a good part of that game today. But while I do believe the Super Bowl hangover is a real thing, I also think that all their additions on the OL will need time to jell and that Burrow may need another game to get all of the whiskey and cigars out of his system and be fully engaged in the marathon. I am someone who actually believes the Bengals are going to be OK this year.
On the other side of that game, this sounds kind of awful, but I think losing Watt may kill that Steelers team. Also, Harris went out today so ... They really showed up today, and I don't think anybody is going to pretend Tomlin can't coach. But I think when it's all said and done, this win may be the high point of their season.
I do think people are going to overreact a ton on Green Bay tomorrow too, but don't forget, last year they started the season laying a gigantic egg as well. And then, if you remember, Detroit was kind of punching them in the face and Rodgers flipped the switch. Suddenly he remembered he liked playing football and the next thing you know, they'd won like seven straight. Problem this year is, he no longer has arguably the best WR in the game on his team. I've though all summer that it was going to be a long year for Green Bay and I still believe it. The score today surprised me, and I worry it puts Minny in the spotlight when I—someone who bet them to win the division—would really prefer less pressure on them, but oh well.
Great win for Chicago, and I don't really want to take a lot away from them, but from San Fran's standpoint, I throw that game out. Really tough spot to start a rookie. On the road, in a downpour, I just move on. Huge win for the Bears though.
In the other early games, I couple of things hit me with a couple of specific teams.
The Browns don't look like they trust Jacoby Brissett much at all. Which may not be fair of me to say—especially since I'm someone who's always liked him, and because their running game is so good, they only need the guy to do so much. But the thing, for me, with the Browns is, this team is going to run all over you. And I think people will discount this score and the game, but don't look past this team. I think there's value there.
On the other side, I think Carolina is who you think they are. Cleveland basically dominated this game—but that's when Baker gets dangerous. Because then you take him off the leash and he just does things. I was on the total in this game and the moment I started to feel great about it was when Carolina fell behind by two scores. That's when Baker is going to get you points. It may not be for his team, but they're coming. Which happened today and I think may happen quite a bit this year. It's just who he is.
I lost on Indy today, and one thing that really stood out to me—and I feel bad about this because Frank Reich did a lot for the Birds to win it all—but the coaching from Indy was fucking atrocious. First, late 4th quarter, Indy's driving. Third down they get the ball to midfield setting up a 4th and 1. And not a long 4th and 1. There's like a minute to go, game is tied. They play for OT and punt. With this offense. Then, in OT, they get down inside the 30. A FG wins it, but they waste two downs basically losing three yards a play trying to set the ball up for the winning kick. It was still a 40+ yard FG, what are you doing. Why are you going backwards? Anyway, it's probably just first game jitters or whatever, but it was 'extremely' concerning. Nice moral victory for Houston though.
Last, the Eagles. Because the Eagles are going to the Super Bowl. I kid, I kid. But this was a bit of the other side of the coin from Indy and Cleveland with Brissett. Early in the game, Philly gets inside the 10 for a first and goal. First play, and RPO that Detroit reads perfectly, Philly gets nothing. Second down, as you may imagine, they run and get down to like the three. Third down, they let Hurts kind of roll to his right where maybe he's going to pass, but really it's stretching it out so he can cut it up and score. He doesn't. So now it's 4th and goal. At this point Philly is, if I remember right, still losing the game. Not only do they not take the points, Sirianni gives the ball to Hurts to make the decision. Hurts takes the snap, reads the play, runs it in easily. Point being, to me, you do not do that if you do not trust your QB. Even if you're going to go for it, you can kind of tie his hands. That's not what the Eagles did. It was only one play, but it really suggests to me that they fully trust Hurts to be the guy.
On the other side of the ball for them, though, it felt like that defense let down a lot in the second half. It's only one game, but it's something to watch.
Why I didn't take the over in Detroit (or Arizona) I have no idea. I get that Goff is no Stafford, but Detroit is still Detroit. And dammed if that team doesn't look a lot like all those other teams who get down by 10 and then either lose by 28 or lose by 4 because they trade scores for the final two quarters.
Speaking of Stafford, I'm not sure he's healthy. I think the Rams may have issues because of him and because Ramsey may have gone from shutdown corner to a turnstile in less than a year. Buffalo roasted that guy.
Also, Buffalo is good.
Also, Tua is 3-0 vs. Belicheat.
Also, I stayed off the over in Arizona because the total was so high, but that's dumb because if you just blindly bet the highest total over every week and the lowest total under every week, I believe you generally profit on the season.
Also, I tailed a Giants play and I still have no idea how it hit. I saw a little bit of that first half and that team looked god awful. I believe this is two years in a row where Tenny has lost their home opener.
Oh, last thing, I didn't watch the Chargers game, but the score didn't shock me. I think the Raiders are the AFC West's Detroit. They'll have a game or two where Carr and Adams cook you for 38, but mostly they're going to lose like 31-24.
OK, that's it. For now. Hello all, bye all. Ha.
Some of the things I'm looking forward to tomorrow:
Last 5 bullet points are true.
- Trey Lance sucks and the Niners are going to finish below .500
- Green Bay sucks and Aaron Rodgers should retire immediately.
- The Bengals were always frauds and just got hot at the right time last year.
- The Eagles are the real deal and are going to win the Super Bowl.
- Pittsburgh in 2022 is New England in 2021, they're going to fight for a playoff spot and Tomlin may be coach of the year.
- Arizona's done.
- The Raiders are done.
- The Rams are done.
- Dallas is done.
Last 5 bullet points are true.
jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
Insanely idiotic. The Dolphins may finish 2nd, but if anyone really thinks the Fins win the division I’d imagine the odds would be great and money can be made.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
It's a bold prediction
Quite a few were results of short fields and turnovers
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
PRESEASON DOESN'T MATTER.
Until it does.
I posted in the Preseason Discussion thread who worked their frontline players in live action games and who didn't. With the new league schedule there is a wide disparity right now across the league in how teams approach their 3 warmup games. Looking now in the rear view mirror, I think the evidence suggests that getting the starters at least a few live reps has value, and along with roster continuity, talent addition/subtraction and coaching upgrades/downgrades are key factors in navigating the week 1 fog. Lets take a quick look at these factors game by game (live preseason action from starters in parentheses):
Bills (yes) - Rams (no) - advantage Bills in preseason reps, advantage Bills in talent addition/subtraction (adding Von Miller, Rams losing Miller and OBJ). Played out as would be expected, with the Bills sharp, the Rams rusty and disjointed.
Saints (QB/RB) - Falcons (QB/WR) - no edge in preseason reps, possible coaching upgrade from Atlanta, eventual talent upgrade for the Saints with Thomas returning in a big way, although everyone including me had doubts all week. Is Mariota a downgrade from Ryan? With his mobility that may not be the case. I do wish they could figure out a way to free up Kyle Pitts a bit.
Niners (yes) - Bears (yes) - no edge in preseason reps, Bears appeared to have a talent downgrade losing Robinson but the possible upgrade in coaching offsets that. With the monsoon I don't see a lot you can take out of this game.
Steelers (yes) - Bengals (no) - If there were a poster child for not being ready for Week 1 it had to be Burrow. His first pick was a training camp pick....when they're all going half speed you can look at a receiver in triple coverage and fire it in there. In the regular season, no no no. Once he got his legs under him he showed how good he is....winning the game not once (TD to Chase with over two minutes left that was called out short of the line that would've been overturned by challenge. They then blew the 1st and and a foot series and came away with nothing), not TWICE (beautiful strike to Thomas with about 15 seconds left that he alligator armed and dropped. Higgins went down with a concussion early in the game.....sidenote, the Bengals have a brilliant trio of receivers but their depth apparently sucks, Thomas was brutal), not THREE times (the TD strike to Chase with a couple of seconds left, only your long snapper is hurt and your back snapper is about a half second slower and your left end chooses to block the outside guy and left Minkah slip through and just get a finger on it), but FOUR times! Got them back in chip shot FG range in OT, they go with the 3rd down FG goal, which is smart because if the snap is bad you can fall on the ball and try again. Only it appears Taylor did not convey to the holder "look, if he throws another shitty snap back at you, just fall on it and we can try it again. We have two shots at this.". So the holder wrangles are high snap and puts it down angled and with the laces pointing backwards. Total failure.
I have to think Tomlin had an extra horseshoe stuck up his ass or has been practicing his voodoo, because it took 5 turnovers, 6 sacks, Taylor's stupidity and dumb luck on the Bengals kick unit to squeeze his way into OT. And then he was gifted another bonehead move by the Bengals in the last minute of OT. On the cusp of FG range (again) Burrow takes the sack but fumbles. Perine picks it up and runs it to the 35. But sorry, you can't advance someone else's fumble in the last 2 minutes. So everyone is confused, but the Bengals send out the punt team and the ref announce the playclock gets set to 40 seconds and will start on his signal. The Bengals were already set to punt and I guess got anxious, because they snapped it with 17 seconds left on the clock! What difference does that make? With 21 seconds left the Steelers, out of timeouts, were only at the Bengals 45. Game would've been a tie. Instead they have time for a play in the middle of the field and a spike to set up the GW field goal. Again I blame the antsy punt team on the coach.
All that said, it's not time to ink in the Steelers as a playoff team just yet. 70 minutes of football and they managed 13 first downs and 267 yards of offense. The run game averaged 3.4 yards a carry and Trubisky was ahead of only Brissett and the Dallas dung heap in yards per attempt. And now their star RB is in a walking boot after dealing with a lis franc issue in the preseason, and their best player MAY have torn his pec. I say may have because the talk this morning is Tomlin and the team were way to exuberant post game for a team that, yeah they won, but lost their superstar for the season. I'm no doctor but my guess is Watt doesn't go on season IR and may be back in a few weeks. These guys are just lucky in that way. I'd be more concerned about the Harris injury since it may be a reinjury.
Eagles (no) - Lions (WR) - no advantage in preseason reps and both teams improved in the offseason. The Lions offense is going to be good as long as Swift stays healthy. AJ Brown on the Eagles was that extra weapon that makes them so dangerous, and they still run the ball as well as anyone. Weird that Hurts had no TD passes and Devonta Smith put up a donut.
Patriots (yes) - Dolphins (yes) - no advantage in preseason reps but the talent addition in Tyfreak obviously showed and the coaching drop off for the Pats was foreseen by many as well. One of several teams deciding to try an in-house solution to a big loss that backfired bigtime this week.
Ravens (no) - Jets (yes) - The standard exception to the rule. Call it the Flacco exception.
Jags (yes) - Commanders (yes) - Both teams are going to be up and down by the looks of it. Dotson makes an early case for rookie of the year, but Samuels has always been a Rivera pet and getting him 15 looks vs 9 for McLauren and Dotson combined is a recipe for future failure IMO.
Browns (QB) - Panthers (QB) - As tight as expected, not sure either team is going anywhere in the long term. Browns FG kicker was a FOURTH round pick so that paid dividends immediately. I echo Joe Public on his Baker thoughts and will add that comeback Baker is exciting but will kill all the buzz for CMAC owners. Robbie Anderson might be a thing again, hmmm.
Colts (QB/WR) - Texans (QB/RB) - No idea what happened in this one except the Colts opening day losing streak continues. 500+ yards of offense, Taylor and Pittman delivering when it matters, think they'll be OK in the long run. Rex Burkhead is a thing again? Yuck
Giants (QB) - Titans (WR) - Titans kept Tannehill in the bubble wrap despite taking away his security blanket WR. This lead to some disfunction on an offense that was lead by its two top RBs. You can't score much working with that so the Tits will always be at risk this season. Giants essentially got a coaching upgrade with Daboll and a talent upgrade with a 100% Barkley, so the threat was there and the bold two point decision paid off. Still don't think the Giants are all that good and their receivers look shaky.
Packers (no) - Vikings (no) - Neither team used the preseason to get reps but the Viking had two edges coming in: a new coaching staff with a new scheme and the talent drain at WR for the Pack. In this case keeping things under wraps paid off for Minny as their superstar Jefferson ran wildly free on several occasions. Can't help but think the game would've been much more competitive if Watson doesn't drop a wide open bomb on the first play of the game. The look from Rodgers was priceless. With all their difficulties I can't figure out why their biggest playmaker Aaron Jones got only 10 looks. Pack will figure it out, they always seem to.
Chiefs (yes) - Cards (no) - This makes the full rehearsals 3-1 against the non-players. Cards had talent issues with Hopkins out, Moore out and Ertz less than 100%. But they didn't come close to stopping Mahomes. You can say the Chiefs had a talent loss with Hill gone, but they did replace him with a quality WR in Juju and still had Kelce. And Mahomes in September just breaks the mold.
Raiders (no) - Chargers (no) - Did not see but the lack of scoring tells me both teams are using early games to figure stuff out. How the fuck does Mike Williams, with Keenan Allen hurt early, go until the 4th Q before catching a pass? Herbert really spread it around, seven guys with four targets. Meanwhile Carr goes to his new guy 17 times! Very small target tree in Vegas.
Bucs (QB/RB) - Cowboys (no) - Season is over in Dallas. Since Jerry took the reins the Cowboys have always been a talent based team with poor offensive schemes. You take away their best route runner in Cooper and its not a surprise that guys weren't getting open. Throw in the lack of preseason reps and these guys were wholly unprepared. Warning on the Bucs, like last year, their wide receivers get shaky if the big 3 can't play. Godwin has a hammy and Julio didn't finish the game either.
Broncos (no) - Seattle (QB) - would not be surprised to see Russ start slow tonight, but the QB switch for both teams is the biggest factor obviously and Denver might have a coaching upgrade.
Until it does.
I posted in the Preseason Discussion thread who worked their frontline players in live action games and who didn't. With the new league schedule there is a wide disparity right now across the league in how teams approach their 3 warmup games. Looking now in the rear view mirror, I think the evidence suggests that getting the starters at least a few live reps has value, and along with roster continuity, talent addition/subtraction and coaching upgrades/downgrades are key factors in navigating the week 1 fog. Lets take a quick look at these factors game by game (live preseason action from starters in parentheses):
Bills (yes) - Rams (no) - advantage Bills in preseason reps, advantage Bills in talent addition/subtraction (adding Von Miller, Rams losing Miller and OBJ). Played out as would be expected, with the Bills sharp, the Rams rusty and disjointed.
Saints (QB/RB) - Falcons (QB/WR) - no edge in preseason reps, possible coaching upgrade from Atlanta, eventual talent upgrade for the Saints with Thomas returning in a big way, although everyone including me had doubts all week. Is Mariota a downgrade from Ryan? With his mobility that may not be the case. I do wish they could figure out a way to free up Kyle Pitts a bit.
Niners (yes) - Bears (yes) - no edge in preseason reps, Bears appeared to have a talent downgrade losing Robinson but the possible upgrade in coaching offsets that. With the monsoon I don't see a lot you can take out of this game.
Steelers (yes) - Bengals (no) - If there were a poster child for not being ready for Week 1 it had to be Burrow. His first pick was a training camp pick....when they're all going half speed you can look at a receiver in triple coverage and fire it in there. In the regular season, no no no. Once he got his legs under him he showed how good he is....winning the game not once (TD to Chase with over two minutes left that was called out short of the line that would've been overturned by challenge. They then blew the 1st and and a foot series and came away with nothing), not TWICE (beautiful strike to Thomas with about 15 seconds left that he alligator armed and dropped. Higgins went down with a concussion early in the game.....sidenote, the Bengals have a brilliant trio of receivers but their depth apparently sucks, Thomas was brutal), not THREE times (the TD strike to Chase with a couple of seconds left, only your long snapper is hurt and your back snapper is about a half second slower and your left end chooses to block the outside guy and left Minkah slip through and just get a finger on it), but FOUR times! Got them back in chip shot FG range in OT, they go with the 3rd down FG goal, which is smart because if the snap is bad you can fall on the ball and try again. Only it appears Taylor did not convey to the holder "look, if he throws another shitty snap back at you, just fall on it and we can try it again. We have two shots at this.". So the holder wrangles are high snap and puts it down angled and with the laces pointing backwards. Total failure.
I have to think Tomlin had an extra horseshoe stuck up his ass or has been practicing his voodoo, because it took 5 turnovers, 6 sacks, Taylor's stupidity and dumb luck on the Bengals kick unit to squeeze his way into OT. And then he was gifted another bonehead move by the Bengals in the last minute of OT. On the cusp of FG range (again) Burrow takes the sack but fumbles. Perine picks it up and runs it to the 35. But sorry, you can't advance someone else's fumble in the last 2 minutes. So everyone is confused, but the Bengals send out the punt team and the ref announce the playclock gets set to 40 seconds and will start on his signal. The Bengals were already set to punt and I guess got anxious, because they snapped it with 17 seconds left on the clock! What difference does that make? With 21 seconds left the Steelers, out of timeouts, were only at the Bengals 45. Game would've been a tie. Instead they have time for a play in the middle of the field and a spike to set up the GW field goal. Again I blame the antsy punt team on the coach.
All that said, it's not time to ink in the Steelers as a playoff team just yet. 70 minutes of football and they managed 13 first downs and 267 yards of offense. The run game averaged 3.4 yards a carry and Trubisky was ahead of only Brissett and the Dallas dung heap in yards per attempt. And now their star RB is in a walking boot after dealing with a lis franc issue in the preseason, and their best player MAY have torn his pec. I say may have because the talk this morning is Tomlin and the team were way to exuberant post game for a team that, yeah they won, but lost their superstar for the season. I'm no doctor but my guess is Watt doesn't go on season IR and may be back in a few weeks. These guys are just lucky in that way. I'd be more concerned about the Harris injury since it may be a reinjury.
Eagles (no) - Lions (WR) - no advantage in preseason reps and both teams improved in the offseason. The Lions offense is going to be good as long as Swift stays healthy. AJ Brown on the Eagles was that extra weapon that makes them so dangerous, and they still run the ball as well as anyone. Weird that Hurts had no TD passes and Devonta Smith put up a donut.
Patriots (yes) - Dolphins (yes) - no advantage in preseason reps but the talent addition in Tyfreak obviously showed and the coaching drop off for the Pats was foreseen by many as well. One of several teams deciding to try an in-house solution to a big loss that backfired bigtime this week.
Ravens (no) - Jets (yes) - The standard exception to the rule. Call it the Flacco exception.
Jags (yes) - Commanders (yes) - Both teams are going to be up and down by the looks of it. Dotson makes an early case for rookie of the year, but Samuels has always been a Rivera pet and getting him 15 looks vs 9 for McLauren and Dotson combined is a recipe for future failure IMO.
Browns (QB) - Panthers (QB) - As tight as expected, not sure either team is going anywhere in the long term. Browns FG kicker was a FOURTH round pick so that paid dividends immediately. I echo Joe Public on his Baker thoughts and will add that comeback Baker is exciting but will kill all the buzz for CMAC owners. Robbie Anderson might be a thing again, hmmm.
Colts (QB/WR) - Texans (QB/RB) - No idea what happened in this one except the Colts opening day losing streak continues. 500+ yards of offense, Taylor and Pittman delivering when it matters, think they'll be OK in the long run. Rex Burkhead is a thing again? Yuck
Giants (QB) - Titans (WR) - Titans kept Tannehill in the bubble wrap despite taking away his security blanket WR. This lead to some disfunction on an offense that was lead by its two top RBs. You can't score much working with that so the Tits will always be at risk this season. Giants essentially got a coaching upgrade with Daboll and a talent upgrade with a 100% Barkley, so the threat was there and the bold two point decision paid off. Still don't think the Giants are all that good and their receivers look shaky.
Packers (no) - Vikings (no) - Neither team used the preseason to get reps but the Viking had two edges coming in: a new coaching staff with a new scheme and the talent drain at WR for the Pack. In this case keeping things under wraps paid off for Minny as their superstar Jefferson ran wildly free on several occasions. Can't help but think the game would've been much more competitive if Watson doesn't drop a wide open bomb on the first play of the game. The look from Rodgers was priceless. With all their difficulties I can't figure out why their biggest playmaker Aaron Jones got only 10 looks. Pack will figure it out, they always seem to.
Chiefs (yes) - Cards (no) - This makes the full rehearsals 3-1 against the non-players. Cards had talent issues with Hopkins out, Moore out and Ertz less than 100%. But they didn't come close to stopping Mahomes. You can say the Chiefs had a talent loss with Hill gone, but they did replace him with a quality WR in Juju and still had Kelce. And Mahomes in September just breaks the mold.
Raiders (no) - Chargers (no) - Did not see but the lack of scoring tells me both teams are using early games to figure stuff out. How the fuck does Mike Williams, with Keenan Allen hurt early, go until the 4th Q before catching a pass? Herbert really spread it around, seven guys with four targets. Meanwhile Carr goes to his new guy 17 times! Very small target tree in Vegas.
Bucs (QB/RB) - Cowboys (no) - Season is over in Dallas. Since Jerry took the reins the Cowboys have always been a talent based team with poor offensive schemes. You take away their best route runner in Cooper and its not a surprise that guys weren't getting open. Throw in the lack of preseason reps and these guys were wholly unprepared. Warning on the Bucs, like last year, their wide receivers get shaky if the big 3 can't play. Godwin has a hammy and Julio didn't finish the game either.
Broncos (no) - Seattle (QB) - would not be surprised to see Russ start slow tonight, but the QB switch for both teams is the biggest factor obviously and Denver might have a coaching upgrade.
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
When it comes to fantasy football draft position for RB's and there backups/perceived roles, it looks like mistakes could have been made on
Pierce over Burkhead
Hall over Carter
Etienne over Robinson
and maybe
Montgomery over Herbert.
but obviously these can change over the course of the season.
Pierce over Burkhead
Hall over Carter
Etienne over Robinson
and maybe
Montgomery over Herbert.
but obviously these can change over the course of the season.
reNew Orleans
Clubbin' with Rasual Butler
Akers over Henderson.
Jets tried to tell us it’s still Carters job, however no one wanted to listen.
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
Arizona is indeed done and locked into bad coaches, management, QBs, contracts for a long time. It’s great to watch.
I’ll give Lance a shot at home vs the Seahawks. That game was a monsoon and his running game fell apart with Mitchell injury. 9ers were many scores better but blew the game with turnovers and DD penalties. Impossible to win that way on the road.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Add Akers over Henderson
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
I didn’t see New Orleans had posted my same thought
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Too early for those first 3. I'd buy Herbert over Monty since the new staff isn't married to either of them.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
What a stinger this was. Have both on the roster and was busy Thursday so left Akers in the lineup. My Zac Taylor moment of the week.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Asked by reporters after the game why the unit didn’t let the clock run all the way down, Zac Taylor said the change at long-snapper (Clark Harris suffered an injury early and was ruled out) was the reason:
“New operation. We snapped there with 13 seconds, I understand that, trust me, we’d rather do something different. But just trying to make sure the operation ran smoothly, it turned out that we sacrificed some seconds just to make sure that we were all on the same page there.”
This is so poor.....how about taking the delay of game first to run all the time off, then if you're worried about the Steelers timing the snap you can snap it early in the next playclock?
Either way, it’s pretty clear Taylor knows exactly what the miscue cost the team.
It’s a similar story on the would-be Ja’Marr Chase touchdown that the team inexplicably decided not to challenge despite it appearing like the star wideout had a game-winner near the sidelines:
“Part of it was that that’s the hardest place for us to see in the entire field is that spot. I didn’t think there was a chance there was a touchdown there initially. So, we got on the ball to run it in quickly. It’s hard with all the craziness in that moment, all the communication to get that ‘Stop, stop. Let’s evaluate this.’ We just couldn’t get it done fast enough by the time we’d seen a replay and realized ‘Oh shoot, he might have gotten in there.’ We’ve just got to learn from those. It’s a fine line — when you get the ball on the inch, you just want to punch it in real quick. In hindsight, maybe he was in and we could have given ourselves a chance.”
On this one, it sounds like personnel up in the booth needed to relay to Taylor whether or not to throw a challenge flag and the communication simply wasn’t fast enough. That’s reading between the lines, at least.
This guy is in desperate need of a time and replay management coach.
“New operation. We snapped there with 13 seconds, I understand that, trust me, we’d rather do something different. But just trying to make sure the operation ran smoothly, it turned out that we sacrificed some seconds just to make sure that we were all on the same page there.”
This is so poor.....how about taking the delay of game first to run all the time off, then if you're worried about the Steelers timing the snap you can snap it early in the next playclock?
Either way, it’s pretty clear Taylor knows exactly what the miscue cost the team.
It’s a similar story on the would-be Ja’Marr Chase touchdown that the team inexplicably decided not to challenge despite it appearing like the star wideout had a game-winner near the sidelines:
“Part of it was that that’s the hardest place for us to see in the entire field is that spot. I didn’t think there was a chance there was a touchdown there initially. So, we got on the ball to run it in quickly. It’s hard with all the craziness in that moment, all the communication to get that ‘Stop, stop. Let’s evaluate this.’ We just couldn’t get it done fast enough by the time we’d seen a replay and realized ‘Oh shoot, he might have gotten in there.’ We’ve just got to learn from those. It’s a fine line — when you get the ball on the inch, you just want to punch it in real quick. In hindsight, maybe he was in and we could have given ourselves a chance.”
On this one, it sounds like personnel up in the booth needed to relay to Taylor whether or not to throw a challenge flag and the communication simply wasn’t fast enough. That’s reading between the lines, at least.
This guy is in desperate need of a time and replay management coach.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Bucs/Boys - Cowboys injuries are going to make it tough on them for the short term. Probably a good under team. Much easier to handle them with the run but then that runs clock anyway. Thought Elliott looked better than normal. Parsons was excellent. TB oline performed better than expected but with how badly the cowboys played, I am not sure what to take away from this game for the bucs team. WR crew certainly got open enough though against a decent secondary.
Raiders/Chargers - Carr had a bad game and I am not talking about the sacks he took that he didn't need to or the interceptions, I am talking about the tunnel vision to one receiver most of the game. He was also highly inaccurate at points in the game, including an easy td throw in the rz. That just isn't how you win football games at this level. Renfrow was so demoralized he looked very unrenfrow like. I was shocked at the lack of pass rush from the raiders given the personnel. This could be a result of the Chargers oline, I simply don't know. Chargers were impressive and by far the better team to my eye. I think the score was a little deceiving. I did think the Chargers run game was lacking.
Only two games I got to watch on Sunday.
Raiders/Chargers - Carr had a bad game and I am not talking about the sacks he took that he didn't need to or the interceptions, I am talking about the tunnel vision to one receiver most of the game. He was also highly inaccurate at points in the game, including an easy td throw in the rz. That just isn't how you win football games at this level. Renfrow was so demoralized he looked very unrenfrow like. I was shocked at the lack of pass rush from the raiders given the personnel. This could be a result of the Chargers oline, I simply don't know. Chargers were impressive and by far the better team to my eye. I think the score was a little deceiving. I did think the Chargers run game was lacking.
Only two games I got to watch on Sunday.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I didn’t watch but just looking at numbers and seeing highlights from raiders game I was shocked Carr played like that/ignored everyone else and locked onto adams, that some high school rookie shit! They both paid and established, there no need to ignore rest your guys to get him the ball! The reason I was high on raiders coming in is cause they have such a good and diverse cast of weapons with the addition of adams, he supposed to make everyone else better, not spectators! Hopefully mcdaniels can get that sorted out.
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Look at Hunt out here calling the Birds to win it all. You love to see it. And this post was in no way edited, I don't know what you're even talking about.
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
I love this point.
One thing about Overreaction Monday is how people will focus on the score or the spread, but it's deeper than that.
The Steez were not only out-gained, they needed five turnovers, a blocked XP, and a missed FG to win that game. And they lost TJ Watt who was essentially the reason that team led the league in sacks last year. This would scare me to death if I'm looking at this team long-term.
In a similar situation, the Cowboys not only lose Dak, but they looked bad before they lost him and their head coach is still Mike McCarthy. Cooper Rush better be mobile, because if he isn't, Dallas is going to be fucked for weeks and dig themselves a hole they won't recover from.
Going further, here were the top teams in turnover diff last season, in order:
- Dallas/Indy +14
- GB +13
- AZ +12
- Minny +11
- TB +10
- Buffalo +8
- NE/NO +7
So if you look at Dallas (because who doesn't want to pick on Jerry's kids), you say 'OK, this team will regress to the mean in terms of TOs.' Add that on top of all the losses they suffered in the offseason and now the loss of Dak. That's a problem.
Likewise, this worries me a lot for GB and AZ.
Also, I'm not sure I like the way Arizona is responding to this loss at all.
I keep thinking that whatever is going on down there between Murray and Kingsbury is a lot of noise, but I think I might be wrong. I may want this team to be good because when they are good, they're a ton of fun to watch and bet. But something may really be rotten there and again, if they come back to the mean in terms of turnovers ...
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Well, fuckknuckles. The Birds lose Derek Barnett for the year on the DL with a knee injury.
Also, the Bucs may lose Godwin for "a few weeks" with a hamstring.
Oh, and sort of as expected if you saw the concern when it happened, the Ravens lose CB Kyle Fuller for the year.
Also, the Bucs may lose Godwin for "a few weeks" with a hamstring.
Oh, and sort of as expected if you saw the concern when it happened, the Ravens lose CB Kyle Fuller for the year.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I didn’t think Dallas was making the playoffs before Dak got hurt, didn’t know how they were gonna score on bucs d and they might have actually been worse than I thought. Rush has like no chance of success with these limited weapons and declining oline, I think above all the others their d success was almost totally predicated on turnovers. They basically got 2 dudes but those 2 can be game wreckers, especially the pen st kid who name escaping me right now, he a beast!! He might be the most disruptive defensive player in the league w watt out. Then the corner is a ball hawk but he is always way too aggressive and gets burnt plenty! Teams gonna figure out real fast if they find a way to neutralize them there not much to worry bout.
I’m not convinced CeeDee a true 1 and even if he is it won’t matter much as teams can key on him, other than Shultz there nothing else that can make ya pay for single coverage while dedicating more to taking those guys away. Unless Dallas can really get the run game going they in danger of finishing at the bottom the nfc least. I liked Philly to win div before yesterday, now I think giants and Washington are at least as good as Dallas!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Ravens are snake bitten at rb and corner. Those positions always dropping like flies for them!! Lucky for them they draft so well they tend to be deep.
I’d think bucs be on for a little bit without Godwin,, problem is hanky’s linger! Julio looked good but if they need more from him week 2 week how long till he banged up?
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
The rookie. Or the rookie last year ... Parsons? Micha Parsons. Totally agreed.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Yea. That the one. He just different.
jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
They can’t challenge within the final 2 minutes of the game, that’s a booth review only (unless the rule has changed?). And Chase was out which seemed pretty clear on the replay as you could see the toe on his right foot on the white sideline.
If they didn’t change the rule, the fact he didn’t even realize he can’t initiate the challenge in the final two minutes should be concerning as well. If they did throw the challenge flag it’s a penalty I think too.
As I championed on this site many, many years ago…yes every team needs a “common sense” coach that handles all of that stuff.
Last edited:
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Wrong play. Talking about this play. Steeler fan ref starts to spot it at the pylon too lol. He knows.
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
It's like I've always said, I don't know why more of you can't be like Hunt. Sometimes I wonder if most of you are even trying, tbh.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Unless Stafford is out for the Rams, them done already after losing to top team is funny. The NFC West has become much weaker as well.
Realistically done are Lions, Panthers, Jets, Jags and now Cowboys.
The first 4 were done before it started.
Realistically done are Lions, Panthers, Jets, Jags and now Cowboys.
The first 4 were done before it started.
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Is it weird to say I'm not sure if the Lions are done?
There's a chance that division outside of Minny ends up being pretty weak. It would require Goff being, well, good—and that not may really be possible. And it would require their defense to probably play above their talent level, but maybe ...
I also think Washington is going to be bad. Along with Atlanta and Seattle.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Goff frustrates the hell out of me when I look for actual improvement. He’s Mr. Checkdown when they need to get passed the sticks.
jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
Ahhh. I thought it was the play where he was out of bounds on the right side of field on the last drive. My bad.
Yeah I agree. I was joking with jp but I do think Arizona might be in trouble.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
The NFC West suddenly looks weak.
