S
SoonerBS
Guest
I've got my money in on most of my plays now so I'll post these for your comments and criticism. I'm still waiting on USC, Notre Dame, Utah and Navy. I'll probably be making plays on these games, too, but I want to watch the lines. Here's a few write-ups with these plays and other write-ups are scattered around the forum.
Alabama/Hawaii UNDER 53 -- Will Hawaii be able to cover against Alabama's notorious defense or will they be overcome by the atmosphere in Tuscaloosa? I got tired of guessing and laid money on Alabama's defense here. And, yes, they will have another good defense this season. Maybe not as good as last season, but this is a Senior and Junior dominated football team. I love to lay UNDERS on teams with good to great defenses as you will see. But, I don't have a lot of faith in Bama's offense right now, which plays towards the UNDER again.
BYU/Arizona UNDER 53 -- Guys, I have been reading newspaper and web reports on every team in Division IA football since April. The reports coming out of BYU's camp is that they are continuing to be impressed with the progress of the defense. They ought to be, even though it is listed that this group only has 4 returners, most of the ones returning were slated to be starters last season but were injured. This is a predominantly Junior squad which means there is some maturity and experience here. AND, we all know that Arizona not only brings back most of their starters on defense, but it's probably the best defense in the PAC 10 next to USC's!
Nevada/Fresno St UNDER 57.5 -- This game is being played at the home field of Fresno St which usually means lay your money on FSU and cash it at the bank. But, this game, this year, may be different. FSU has to replace nearly all their skill positions offensively, but they bring back 8 starters on the defensive side of the ball. Nevada will bring back most of their defensive players as well. Last year this game went way over the point total, but that was with different players at a different location. It's hard to NOT go against the 57.5 total with this year's rule changes that will nullify nearly 12-20 plays a game!
Oklahoma/UAB UNDER 43 -- The first game out for Oklahoma will probably be a conservative showing. They want to give Peterson a lot of touches. They want to establish some confidence in Paul Thompson, but they want him to show that he will not "hurt" them offensively. Meanwhile, UAB is without Hackney who graduated last season and they will be starting a new QB who has not played much if any. Brown has already admitted the fact that they will likely run a lot this year and rely on their running game. They will not run against Oklahoma's defense! One of the best, if not the best defenses in the nation this year! It's pretty simple to me - I don't see Oklahoma scoring 43 points this game. You understand what I'm saying.
Texas/North Texas UNDER 54 - This situation is similar to Oklahoma's opener. Texas has one of the best defenses in the nation. Even though North Texas is returning 9 starters on offense, I'm not sure they will score more than a FG. So, we have to ask ourselves the question, "Will Texas score more than 50 points this game? Last year I would have said, "yes." This year, even though they will likely be good offensively again, I say, "no." I think it's very likely that Brown will play two QBs this game. Depending on how much he plays them, it's hard to get in the groove and stay in the groove, whenever you're looking towards the sidelines wondering if you're coming out the next play or series. Also, NT may have just a good enough defense to make texas have to run some clock this game. Again, my thinking is that with the new rule changes, 54 is going to be a lot of points to score in a ball game that is being shortened.
Florida State/Miami UNDER 39.5 -- Do I even have to explain this one? This has been money for the last 3 years and the point total in this game has descended gradually since 2001. Two great defenses battling on Labor Day night!
Penn State/Akron UNDER 45 -- Penn State has a very good defense perennially. Akron is suppose to have their best defense in years. PSU is sporting a new QB. I don't look for a lot of points to be scored.
Houston -12.5 over Rice
This is year 4 for Briles offensive schemes and these are now mostly his recruits for his system. We all understand the fact that Houston, for the most part, has to settle for the "second and third best" in recruiting. But, still, they are in a conference that will allow them to win against mostly non-BCS teams. The College Football News reiterates Houston's successful outlook for this season: "The chance will never be better for Houston to win the Conference USA title and have a shot to grow into a bit of a power than this season with a whopping 17 returning starters, good depth on defense, a loaded receiving corps, and a quarterback with 36 starts under his belt."
In 2004 they went 3-8. In 2005 they went 6-6. This is the pattern teams follow that change to drastic passing offensive schemes. Except for their Bowl Game against a great defensive team in Kansas, their losses last season were all within a couple of TDs. It is usually the trend of teams with close losses to improve in their record the following year IF they bring back experienced players. We saw this happen with Vanderbilt over the 2004 to 2005 seasons. This season, if the pattern continues, and I think it will, they should make there way back to a post season bowl and my projection is they will go 8-4 on the season.
They bring back 7 offensive starters including their veteran Senior QB Kolb. Defensively they bring back 9.
Defensively, last season, Art Briles and his defensive coaching staff made the move to a 3-4 defense. The thought was that the Cougars had more linebacker types than dominant linemen, so the move was made. Well, it’s turned out well, especially with the four studs who’ll step on the field at the linebacker position, again, this year. Add to the backfield free safety Will Gulley who is back for U of H, and he solidifies an experienced secondary and defense. Gulley, before his injury, was a dual threat – stopping the run and playing the pass with equal aplomb. Before his injury he accumulated 176 career tackles and 8 interceptions in three years.
All we need to know about Rice is this -- they went 1-10 last season as an option team, and this season they have changed their entire coaching staff, and OC, Major Appelwhite, will be implementing an all new "passing scheme." He will do it with option QBs and players. It will not go over well this season. All you have to do to try and make a prediction for Rice this season is to look at the early years of Nebraska and Houston whenever they changed offensive schemes. In 3 to 4 years, Rice should show some improvement, especially whenever their recruits start playing that will better fit their system of play.
Briles and his Houston Cougars know that this is their year to shine. There will not be any reason or need to hold back in this first game. Here's their opportunity for bragging rights in the city of Houston and a way to send a message to the CUSA teams -- "we're contenders this season!" Early Betmill lines had this at -13.5 and it still loooked good then. BetChris and Pinny lines are giving us even more of a bargain at -11.5 (up a half point since line came out.) Again, just as all these plays, watch and listen carefully for key injuries coming out of fall camp. I'm not a big advocate for laying your money early. Just be patient.
I believe Houston wins this by 17-21 points!
Ball St. -4 vs. E. Michigan
I know what you are thinking here, "Are you seriously going to lay money on a team that went 4-7 last season??" The answer is, "Yes." I'll lay money on a 4-7 team, that returns 18 starters (10 on offense and 8 on defense), and finished last season strongly by winning 3 out of their final 4 games. This says to me that they were a young team that was steadily getting better through the year and should continue that trend into this season -- especially returning 18 starters!
This line, according to recent power rankings, is right where it needs to be. But, one of the keys here to Ball St., along with the experience coming back, is the fact that they will bring back their Veteran QB, Senior Joey Lynch. While, E. Michigan will have to start a new QB and it is projected to be Sophomore Tyler Jones. He is experienced though.
This play is made more on the momentum factor of a young team that experienced success toward's the end of last year's "tumultuous" season, and should carry it over here to this opener. There are trends on either side of this game if you are a trends player. But, the fact that is hard to ignore here is that this team has the capability to win almost every game they play in the MAC this year. After all, this was the same team that beat the two participants in the MAC championship game – Akron and Northern Illinois.
Other Games I have Combined Write-ups on with B.A.R. In this Forum:
Pittsburgh -3.5
Nebraska -20
Coattail Plays I Agree With:
Iowa State -6.5
Boston College -13.5
Northwestern -3.5
USC -8.5
Utah +3.5
Navy -11.5
Notre Dame/Georgia Tech UNDER 50
Mississippi -3
Good luck, guys, and feel free to leave comments (even you, Nick.)
BYU/Arizona UNDER 53 -- Guys, I have been reading newspaper and web reports on every team in Division IA football since April. The reports coming out of BYU's camp is that they are continuing to be impressed with the progress of the defense. They ought to be, even though it is listed that this group only has 4 returners, most of the ones returning were slated to be starters last season but were injured. This is a predominantly Junior squad which means there is some maturity and experience here. AND, we all know that Arizona not only brings back most of their starters on defense, but it's probably the best defense in the PAC 10 next to USC's!
Florida State/Miami UNDER 39.5 -- Do I even have to explain this one? This has been money for the last 3 years and the point total in this game has descended gradually since 2001. Two great defenses battling on Labor Day night!
Houston -12.5 over Rice
This is year 4 for Briles offensive schemes and these are now mostly his recruits for his system. We all understand the fact that Houston, for the most part, has to settle for the "second and third best" in recruiting. But, still, they are in a conference that will allow them to win against mostly non-BCS teams. The College Football News reiterates Houston's successful outlook for this season: "The chance will never be better for Houston to win the Conference USA title and have a shot to grow into a bit of a power than this season with a whopping 17 returning starters, good depth on defense, a loaded receiving corps, and a quarterback with 36 starts under his belt."
In 2004 they went 3-8. In 2005 they went 6-6. This is the pattern teams follow that change to drastic passing offensive schemes. Except for their Bowl Game against a great defensive team in Kansas, their losses last season were all within a couple of TDs. It is usually the trend of teams with close losses to improve in their record the following year IF they bring back experienced players. We saw this happen with Vanderbilt over the 2004 to 2005 seasons. This season, if the pattern continues, and I think it will, they should make there way back to a post season bowl and my projection is they will go 8-4 on the season.
They bring back 7 offensive starters including their veteran Senior QB Kolb. Defensively they bring back 9.
Defensively, last season, Art Briles and his defensive coaching staff made the move to a 3-4 defense. The thought was that the Cougars had more linebacker types than dominant linemen, so the move was made. Well, it’s turned out well, especially with the four studs who’ll step on the field at the linebacker position, again, this year. Add to the backfield free safety Will Gulley who is back for U of H, and he solidifies an experienced secondary and defense. Gulley, before his injury, was a dual threat – stopping the run and playing the pass with equal aplomb. Before his injury he accumulated 176 career tackles and 8 interceptions in three years.
All we need to know about Rice is this -- they went 1-10 last season as an option team, and this season they have changed their entire coaching staff, and OC, Major Appelwhite, will be implementing an all new "passing scheme." He will do it with option QBs and players. It will not go over well this season. All you have to do to try and make a prediction for Rice this season is to look at the early years of Nebraska and Houston whenever they changed offensive schemes. In 3 to 4 years, Rice should show some improvement, especially whenever their recruits start playing that will better fit their system of play.
Briles and his Houston Cougars know that this is their year to shine. There will not be any reason or need to hold back in this first game. Here's their opportunity for bragging rights in the city of Houston and a way to send a message to the CUSA teams -- "we're contenders this season!" Early Betmill lines had this at -13.5 and it still loooked good then. BetChris and Pinny lines are giving us even more of a bargain at -11.5 (up a half point since line came out.) Again, just as all these plays, watch and listen carefully for key injuries coming out of fall camp. I'm not a big advocate for laying your money early. Just be patient.
I believe Houston wins this by 17-21 points!
Ball St. -4 vs. E. Michigan
I know what you are thinking here, "Are you seriously going to lay money on a team that went 4-7 last season??" The answer is, "Yes." I'll lay money on a 4-7 team, that returns 18 starters (10 on offense and 8 on defense), and finished last season strongly by winning 3 out of their final 4 games. This says to me that they were a young team that was steadily getting better through the year and should continue that trend into this season -- especially returning 18 starters!
This line, according to recent power rankings, is right where it needs to be. But, one of the keys here to Ball St., along with the experience coming back, is the fact that they will bring back their Veteran QB, Senior Joey Lynch. While, E. Michigan will have to start a new QB and it is projected to be Sophomore Tyler Jones. He is experienced though.
This play is made more on the momentum factor of a young team that experienced success toward's the end of last year's "tumultuous" season, and should carry it over here to this opener. There are trends on either side of this game if you are a trends player. But, the fact that is hard to ignore here is that this team has the capability to win almost every game they play in the MAC this year. After all, this was the same team that beat the two participants in the MAC championship game – Akron and Northern Illinois.
Other Games I have Combined Write-ups on with B.A.R. In this Forum:
Pittsburgh -3.5
Nebraska -20
Coattail Plays I Agree With:
Iowa State -6.5
Boston College -13.5
Northwestern -3.5
USC -8.5
Utah +3.5
Navy -11.5
Notre Dame/Georgia Tech UNDER 50
Mississippi -3
Good luck, guys, and feel free to leave comments (even you, Nick.)
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