A few of the games you include are when Mitchell started (Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas, Florida, Clemson), where the offense was a little more effective. Was the offense really that much of a threat with Smelley under center? They scored 38 on MSU, and 38 on UK - but 14 of the points against the Cats were defensive TD's. What did Smelley do against a real D?
I'm just not that intimidated by this unit. They lose one of their biggest playmakers in Boyd, and I worry quite a bit about Smelley. I'm not sure if the OL is good enough to make room for a RB who isn't quite as good as Boyd.
Clearly I'm not as high on this group. I don't know, maybe it's the fact they regressed quite a bit after improving in Spurrier's first two years. Can SC ever be a real power in the SEC?
I couldn't get to this in the morning so I will now.
Not to nitpick, SC really scored 31 on UK. Saunders fumbling the ball out of the endzone on the first drive was directly canceled out by Woodson fumbling it back to us on the next series. Saunder's catch was a touchdown if he doesn't slow down on the 5yd line. The other fumble for a TD, I will give you that.
As of right now, Smelley isn't the QB, Spurrier says that Beecher is and thats it as of now. Beecher is bigger, has a stronger arm, and smarter but he didn't have the confidence in himself so Spurrier didn't play him. Spurrier spent all offseason trying to get Beecher to believe in himself and apparently he has carried himself differently this summer. The thing about the QB position here, he doesn't have to be Dan Marino, he has to "manage the game" and I think Beecher is suited to do that. Now, this is all nice speculation until he takes his first snap but this is Shane Mattews the second for Spurrier. Smelley makes dumb decisions, he did it the whole Vandy game, he telegraphs his throws and his arm is weak. The OL is far deeper, more talented, and more experienced than its ever been since Spurrier arrived. A couple of 3rd year players will be manning spots on the OL that they otherwise were not ready for last season.
No doubt, my favorite player, Boyd is a loss but Mitchell is not. Mike Davis has been the starter at RB before, during the 2005 season when Boyd was suspended but he needs someone compliment him and there are 2 players that will be given that chance (Maddox/Wallace) and both bring a different rushing style than Davis. The TE's might be the best tandem in the SEC and they will be a HUGE part of the offense. If they are not the best tandem when the year is over, they will be behind Ingram and Hernandez of UF. McKinnley is a top 2 WR in the conference and he will be complimented by a deep threat in Moe Brown, a possession WR in Lecorn, and a big man in either R-Frosh Joe Hills or Jason Barnes. There is more experienced talent on offense this year than last. SC lost Boyd, a first year starter at center, and Mitchell and the latter 2 are replaced by more effective starters.
Now, what does this all mean vs. NC State. Well you have a green NC State defense, especially at LB and they will be the focus of the offensive attack. They can not match up and cover the SC TE's. The OL should be able to give Davis room to move and if that happens then Spurrier will have State off balance all night on defense.
When State is on offense their focus will be to 1)run the ball, 2)run the ball, 3)hit the TE. I do not think they want to take any chances downfield with either of their vetern turnover prone QB's or their young inexperienced ones. Currently they have 5 players auditioning for the QB spot. They will try to utilize the short passing game, the play action type plays, and the TE. I believe SC on defense this year will look like night and day compared to last. Ellis Johnson is head and shoulders fundamentally above Tyrone Nix. If he can make Miss St a top 5 defense in the SEC last year, then he can certainly make this SC defense rank up there with UGA, Auburn, LSU, UF. I've had a problem with Nix's defenses for a long time, especially in 3rd and long and he never attacked the offense enough.
Spurrier is going to benefit from excellent field position because of the defense and the special teams all night and anytime he gets a short field to work with he is going to get some points, even if it is 3 with Succop from 50yds.
Other than that, this game can not be a sloppy game for Carolina. It won't be good for them mentally. They have to come out like gangbusters and blast NC St right away. They have to move on from last years collapse as quickly as possible and the best way to do that would to win convincingly. If this is a 17-10 game, I fear for another sloppy 6-6 or 7-5 year but this team is much better than that. They should go 8-4 or 9-3 when it is all said and done. Even with how bad last year ended, they are 1 play away from winning each of Tennessee and Clemson but they didn't because they were young, inexperienced, beat up, and not hungry enough. I believe it will be different this year. This is by far a more talented team that last year because of how much they've grown up in a year and how experienced they are everywhere. Norwood-Cook-Munnerlyn have been competing in the SEC since they were true frosh, now they are juniors and top players at their position in the conference. Jasper is a top 2 LB. Kenny and the TE's rank up there at their position in the conference as well as Succop being one of the best kickers. Spurrier has been almost gushing at how the team looks physically. For the first time since he has been there he feels like he has an "SEC Looking" team, now they have to play like one.
Thursday nights at Willliams Brice are probably a little more rowdy than Saturday nights and since this is the opener its going to be a very hostile environment for State to walk into and be competitive. I am done with my rambling but believe this is a 31-13, 27-10, type game.
