Week 1 Line Predictions and Discussion

[TheGarfather]

I would really like to see a write-up of UABs program status particularly from someone that lives in the neighborhood. Maybe not a completely thorough one, but can someone at least touch on all the different areas of their football team? Especially this year, but also just generally. Where are they headed? Are they getting good players? What is Neil Calloway's specialty? Does that staff have a clue as to what they want this program to be and how will they accomplish that?

 

[Blue_Chip]

why do you guys have mizzou such heavy favs. its a neutral field...just curious?

No Mendenhall for the mistake-prone Juice Williams to rely on. This will cause the Illini to regress more than expected as ILL likes to keep the ball on the ground. Mizzou can do big things with Chase Daniel taking the snaps. I think 8.5 is logical, but I do not see why Mizzou won't cover. Mizzou was favored by 6 last yr to open the season, and the score was 40-34, but only after Mizzou allowed a late comeback by Illinois. No late comeback + no Rashard Mendenhall = Mizzou ATS.

... at least that's my take, Hunt.

 

[brewer]

The comeback started with a score at the 6:11 mark in the 3rd. Im not sure how late that is. The Illini defense surely wasnt going to play at such a poor rate all game. They regressed to their mean. Holding Mizz to 3 pts.

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datarow><TD colSpan=2>3rd Quarter - 6:11</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>TD </TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>Illinois 13 - Missouri 37
Jeremy Maclin 66 yd. punt return (Jeff Wolfert kick)






</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD colSpan=2>3rd Quarter - 4:08</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>TD </TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>Illinois 20 - Missouri 37
Eddie McGee 16 yd. run (Jason Reda kick)






</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD colSpan=2>3rd Quarter - 2:47</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>TD </TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>Illinois 27 - Missouri 37
Kyle Hudson 41 yd. pass from Eddie McGee (Jason Reda kick)






</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD colSpan=2>4th Quarter - 13:48</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>TD </TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>Illinois 34 - Missouri 37
Rashard Mendenhall 4 yd. run (Jason Reda kick)






</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD colSpan=2>4th Quarter - 8:32</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>FG </TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>Illinois 34 - Missouri 40
Jeff Wolfert 32 yd. field goal






</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Illinois had a chance to win at the end of the game but couldnt punch in the last final score ...

<TABLE class=tablehead id=playTable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=colhead vAlign=top><TD colSpan=3>Illinois at 2:51</TD><TD>MO</TD><TD>ILL</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at ILL 30</TD><TD>Eddie McGee deep pass complete to Kyle Hudson for 14 yards to the Illin 44 for a 1ST down.</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>40</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>34</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at ILL 44</TD><TD>Rashard Mendenhall rush for no gain to the Illin 44, tackled by Sean Weatherspoon.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 10 at ILL 44</TD><TD>Eddie McGee pass incomplete to Daniel Dufrene, hurried by Evander Hood.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>3rd and 10 at ILL 44</TD><TD>Eddie McGee pass incomplete to Joe Morgan, hurried by Evander Hood.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>4th and 10 at ILL 44</TD><TD>Eddie McGee pass complete to Arrelious Benn for 25 yards to the Misso 31 for a 1ST down, tackled by William Moore.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at MO 31</TD><TD>Eddie McGee sideline pass complete to Joe Morgan for 8 yards to the Misso 23, tackled by Darnell Terrell out-of-bounds.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 2 at MO 23</TD><TD>Illinois penalty 5 yard illegal procedure accepted.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 7 at MO 28</TD><TD>Missouri penalty 6 yard pass interference accepted.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at MO 22</TD><TD>Timeout Illinois, clock 00:58.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at MO 22</TD><TD>Eddie McGee pass intercepted by Cornelius Brown at the Misso 1, returned for no gain to the Misso 1.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=colhead vAlign=top><TD colSpan=5>DRIVE TOTALS: ILL drive: 7 plays 48 yards, 01:53 ILL INT</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

So I'm not even sure the win of 6 is a true 6.

 

[Blue_Chip]

The comeback started with a score at the 6:11 mark in the 3rd. Im not sure how late that is. The Illini defense surely wasnt going to play at such a poor rate all game. They regressed to their mean.

So I'm not even sure the win of 6 is a true 6.

"Late" may be a confusing adjective to use here. When you're down 24 points at half and make it a 3 point game with 13 minutes to play, I call it a comeback. And 2 TDs in a three and a half minute stretch is something that should not be expected as commonplace. I knew the Illini defense was better than their showing in the 1H. LSU was better than their showing in the Arkansas game last year, but that's how the chips fall sometimes, showing does not equal actual ability.

And I'm not sure your last statement makes sense. I think I understand what you mean, but if a fave wins 40-34 and the spread 6, then that's a true enough 6 to make everyone push.

 

[brewer]

showing does not equal actual ability.

In a small sample size this is often seen. However, the larger your sample size the more showing does equal actual ability.

Wasn't talking in terms of what the final score reads and the 40-34 win pushing if you had mizz -6 or ill +6. Was talking about game scores and percentages. What percent of the time does a team who has the ball in that situation throw that pick/not score? What percent do they score and win? What percent might they score and still lose? Math stuff. I've been doing some reading this summer.

 

[Blue_Chip]

showing does not equal actual ability.

In a small sample size this is often seen. However, the larger your sample size the more showing does equal actual ability.

I agree completely. The nature of football provides for a small sample size, especially college football. My new signature is a quote I came across in my CFA studies; it pertains to our conversation... haha!

 

[tru]

why do you guys have mizzou such heavy favs. its a neutral field...just curious?

tha question was why is mizzou so high some think right? not who will or should cover this game right or how las year week one played out? that was week 1 lastyear, after how well of a season mizzou had, if they beat OU in tha big 12 championship they have a great chance of playin in tha championship game instead of tha cotton bowl. now after that kinda season an illy losin mendenhall, an mizzou bein favored by 6 las year how is it that hard to think of this team not bein 2 or 3 more points favored on tha same kinda neutral field? tha linesmakers cant make this line smaller than lastyears line for tha simple fact of what mizzou did lastyear, illy had a break out year also, but tha facts are what they are. im not sayin missouri will walk all over em here but i dont think anything is wrong if that line is set at -8 or -9 or -10 in this spot.