Week 1 Line Predictions and Discussion

RJ Esq

RJ Esq

Prick Since 1974
Here's the opening week schedule:
Thursday, August 28
TBA Vanderbilt at Miami (OH) ESPNU
TBA UTEP at Buffalo
TBA Troy at Middle Tennessee ERTV
7:30 PM Eastern Kentucky at Cincinnati
8:00 PM North Carolina State at South Carolina ESPN
9:00 PM Oregon State at Stanford ESPN2


Friday, August 29
7:00 PM Temple at Army ESPNU
8:00 PM Southern Methodist at Rice ESPN

Saturday, August 30
TBA Louisiana-Monroe at Auburn
TBA Tulsa at UAB
TBA Idaho at Arizona
TBA Michigan State at California
TBA Colorado State at Colorado
TBA Hawaii at Florida
TBA Syracuse at Northwestern
TBA Utah at Michigan
TBA Northern Illinois at Minnesota
TBA Illinois at Missouri
TBA Memphis at Mississippi
TBA Virginia Tech at East Carolina ESPN/ESPN2
TBA Western Michigan at Nebraska
TBA Bowling Green at Pittsburgh
TBA Wake Forest at Baylor
TBA Southern University at Houston
TBA Florida Atlantic at Texas
TBA USC at Virginia
TBA Oklahoma State at Washington State
TBA Akron at Wisconsin
TBA South Carolina State at UCF
TBA Florida International at Kansas
TBA North Texas at Kansas State
TBA Boston College at Kent State
TBA Mississippi State at Louisiana Tech ESPN/ESPN2
TBA Washington at Oregon ESPN/ABC
TBA Louisiana-Lafayette at Southern Miss
2:00 PM Ohio at Wyoming THE MTN
6:00 PM TCU at New Mexico VERSUS
7:00 PM Arkansas State at Texas A&M
8:00 PM Alabama at Clemson CBS
10:00 PM Utah State at UNLV


Sunday, August 31
3:30 PM Kentucky at Louisville ESPN


Monday, September 1
4:30 PM Fresno State at Rutgers ESPN
8:00 PM Tennessee at UCLA ESPN
 
I will be preaching UL anything under -4 in the opener against UK. Should be a convincing DD victory for the Cards, as much as it pains me to say it.

Not saying the Cats will be horrible, but GREAT spot for UL and I expect a surprising season from them. Don't think this one will be in question for long.
 
Reading the title of this thread just got me more than mildly aroused. =========)>

I've taken a brief look at every team, but only gone in-depth with about 20 so far. I'll take a stab at this and then you all can correct me.

Thursday, August 28
Vanderbilt at Miami (OH) Pick Em
UTEP at Buffalo -4.5
Troy at Middle Tennessee -3
North Carolina State at South Carolina I will no idea compared to some of the guys here but maybe USC -7
Oregon State at Stanford look for the Cardinal to actually be a microscopic home favorite here, maybe -1 or -1.5, the last time they were favored in a P10 game was 04 which they lost outright

Friday, August 29
Temple -3 at Army (I'm fulling expecting to lay points with Temple in this game)
Southern Methodist at Rice no idea, maybe Owls -5 or so, take the OVER 100


Saturday, August 30
Louisiana-Monroe at Auburn -22, no don't even go there, not happening
Tulsa -4 at UAB I know precious little about the Blazers, mostly I just think Tulsa has better football players these days
Idaho at Arizona -28 cats should score on just about every possession
Michigan State at California -8.5
Colorado State at Colorado -6 close every year
Hawaii at Florida -26, not sure I will defer to the forum on this one
Syracuse at Northwestern -10, going to get ugly, the calls for GR's head will be extremely loud
Utah at Michigan -2, it won't close here though it will close with the Utes favored
Northern Illinois at Minnesota -10.5
Illinois at Missouri -9.5, not a whole lot different from last year, Illinois maybe a little worse on defense so I moved the line up a FG from last season
Memphis at Mississippi -8
Virginia Tech -12.5 at East Carolina
Western Michigan at Nebraska -17.5
Bowling Green at Pittsburgh -20
Wake Forest -10 at Baylor could get ugly not sure how many the Bears will score but Briles seems to find a way
Florida Atlantic at Texas -24
USC -17 at Virginia
Oklahoma State at Washington State -3, take the OVER
Akron at Wisconsin -27
Florida International at Kansas -40
North Texas at Kansas State -24.5
Boston College -14 at Kent State Eagles are going to have an awesome defense again.
Mississippi State -7 at Louisiana Tech ESPN/ESPN2
Washington at Oregon -13.5
Louisiana-Lafayette at Southern Miss -14.5 Smells like a ML dog play. We'll talk more later, but the matchup will result in a huge win for USM or an outright loss, which is the sort of scenario you want for +500.
Ohio at Wyoming -17 (look for this number to be much bigger than you might expect off the top of your head, maybe even 20)
TCU at New Mexico PK
Arkansas State at Texas A&M -21
Alabama at Clemson -6.5
Utah State at UNLV -16

Sunday, August 31
Kentucky at Louisville PK

Monday, September 1
Fresno State at Rutgers -5
Tennessee -4.5 at UCLA
 
What the hell, I will join the party as it is fun to do some early speculation even though we all know a lot can happen between now and August. These are just my early early thoughts based on reading stuff online, going through local papers, looking at spring practice info, last year's box scores, etc. Plenty of work to do for week 1, but I feel I have a pretty good start on at least a few of these, so take it for what it is worth at this point...

Thursday games...

1) I like Miami Ohio over Vandy, especially if I can get em as a pk or a fav at anything less than 3. Ideally hoping for points, but initial lean is towards the Hawks to win by 3 or more as Vandy might get some public love because of the whole SEC v MAC matchup in week one as many may view it as a mismatch if they don't know both teams deeper than just the conferences they play in.

2) Would love to take Buffalo, but I am afraid that the days of them being one of my favorite under the radar teams is long gone now that everyone and their brother will be on em this year I bet. Think they have a shot to win SU at home, but not willing to lay points with em as it is basically a toss up at first glance

3) Will probably pass on the others as the only other under the radar matchup is Troy vs MTSU but don't have a feel for this one right now as I lean towards the Raiders but you guys know I ain't gonna have 2 dogs on my card on day 1 haha.

Friday Initial Thoughts...

1) Temple is a definite early lean as they should have won that game last year (yes I did watch it haha). Hoping to only lay a small number like 2.5, although I think anything under 6 would be safe.

2) Really hoping this total comes in light but who are we kidding? Spread vs spread, even with SMU probably needing a few weeks to settle in to June Jones' system, should still spell over, as long as the number is reasonable. I actually like Rice in this one as Clement is a solid quarterback without much help, but he might get 500yds in this one. Early lean would be Rice at a similar number to Temple, as I would love -2.5, but actually like anything under 6 here also.

Saturday Games....

Haven't even thought about these yet, as I actually go game by game and I have been a slacker so far this summer, only getting through less than 10, but plenty of time left! I will say that every year I have a handful of huge favs that I take in week 1 and this year will be no exception as I have had solid success taking the big favs that most won't touch. Looking over the card, here are a few I will probably jump on as long as the lines aren't insane...

Kansas if 41.5 or less, although would probably take it up to 47.
Not sure about any others right now...KSU maybe if their young defense can hold up against the NT spread offense, as the Wildcats should be able to put up a ton of points in this one. Would love to get something under -24 here, but who knows.
 
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TheGarfather said:
Louisiana-Lafayette at Southern Miss -14.5 Smells like a ML dog play. We'll talk more later, but the matchup will result in a huge win for USM or an outright loss, which is the sort of scenario you want for +500.
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Absolutely! Things got shaken up pretty good in Hattiesburg this offseason. The 17-yr head coach was booted, and the only stable position on the roster is Fletcher at RB. I will get plenty more info on USM before the season starts. I need to delve into ULL's roster, but at 5-to-1 on my money, things looks good on the surface.
 
i dunno, i havent checked out ncst that much yet, will be interesting if they bring a mobile QB considering we didn't stop any last yr, then again who did we stop running.

sc -7 -10 depending on how ncst is shaping up..i do think @ home in and opener to get last yr off the brain, sc needs to kick the shit out of them.
 
I haven't looked at NCSU's OL yet, they will have a lot to say about that game as the RBs are in place, and - theoretically - they should have a veteran QB that will now be a better decision-maker. TE Hill is back as an impossible match-up and Bowens is a nice wideout as well. TOB usually has nice play along the lines of scrimmage, but I'm not certain yet about this season.

I would like to bet SC at home laying a short number, but then again I may have learned my lesson last year with their pitiful display against ULL. (which goes back to your comment about running QBs.) Beck and Evans are both statues though.
 
TheGarfather said:
I haven't looked at NCSU's OL yet, they will have a lot to say about that game as the RBs are in place, and - theoretically - they should have a veteran QB that will now be a better decision-maker. TE Hill is back as an impossible match-up and Bowens is a nice wideout as well. TOB usually has nice play along the lines of scrimmage, but I'm not certain yet about this season.

I would like to bet SC at home laying a short number, but then again I may have learned my lesson last year with their pitiful display against ULL. (which goes back to your comment about running QBs.) Beck and Evans are both statues though.
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no doubt TOB will have them ready for the game.

I remember reading that they might of had a frosh who was making some noise at QB and was mobile but maybe I am getting that mixed up with someone. I am pretty sure the QB was unsettled after spring. I am aware of the RB's they have so right away SC defense is going to get tested against some kids with talent at that position. I think SC should be able to lock down their passing game and focus on stopping the run but I need to do a lot more research on NCST before making that assessment.
 
First of all, Garfather...

helluva job on your opening weekend lines (but I realize you know your stuff).

I've toyed around with my opening weekend numbers and most of ours are very similar.

Some differences (and some are quite marginal) are as follows:

Southern Cal 23 at Virginia
* Washington State 1.5 Oklahoma State
* Clemson 5.5 Alabama
at UNLV 8 Utah State
at South Carolina 8.5 NC State
at Michigan 6 Utah
at Texas 28.5 Florida Atlantic

Again, thanks for taking the lead and sharing your insight.

Good luck,
Paul
 
u watch jump....been to a few workouts recently...they are going to surprise, can't be any worse than last year...
 
Here are my very early lines (mine are in blue next to Gar's). Haven't even started looking at anything past the Thurs and Fri games, but figured it would be fun to do this exercise using a printed schedule so as not to be biased by Gar's lines. I then copied and pasted Gar's post in here so I could put mine next to his to see how far apart we were. Pretty close on most, a few that are not even close. Definitely worth the effort though as I actually enjoy this kinda stuff.

Thursday, August 28
Vanderbilt at Miami (OH) Pick Em -1.5
UTEP at Buffalo -4.5 -3.5
Troy at Middle Tennessee -3 +3.5
North Carolina State at South Carolina -7 -10.5
Oregon State at Stanford -1 or -1.5 -1

Friday, August 29
Temple -3 -6 at Army
Southern Methodist at Rice -5 -7.5


Saturday, August 30
Louisiana-Monroe at Auburn -22, -24.5
Tulsa -4 -11.5 at UAB
Idaho at Arizona -28 -21.5
Michigan State at California -8.5 -7.5
Colorado State at Colorado -6 -3.5
Hawaii at Florida -26, -28,5
Syracuse at Northwestern -10, -14.5
Utah at Michigan -2, -4
Northern Illinois at Minnesota -10.5 -16.5
Illinois at Missouri -9.5, -8.5
Memphis at Mississippi -8 -3.5
Virginia Tech -12.5 -18.5 at East Carolina
Western Michigan at Nebraska -17.5 -14.5
Bowling Green at Pittsburgh -20 -17.5
Wake Forest -10 -13 at Baylor
Florida Atlantic at Texas -24 -28.5
USC -17 -21.5 at Virginia
Oklahoma State at Washington State -3, -1.5
Akron at Wisconsin -27 -23
Florida International at Kansas -40 -47.5
North Texas at Kansas State -24.5 -28.5
Boston College -14 -17.5 at Kent State
Mississippi State -7 -10.5 at Louisiana Tech ESPN/ESPN2
Washington at Oregon -13.5 -17
Louisiana-Lafayette at Southern Miss -14.5 -12.5
Ohio at Wyoming -17 -18.5
TCU at New Mexico PK +3
Arkansas State at Texas A&M -21 -24.5
Alabama at Clemson -6.5 -7.5
Utah State at UNLV -16 -24.5

Sunday, August 31
Kentucky at Louisville PK -3.5

Monday, September 1
Fresno State at Rutgers -5 -6.5
Tennessee -4.5 -3.5 at UCLA
 
nice work cb. you guys are just way ahead of me at this point. i will revisit the lines and put my lines next to each of yours in .. maybe a week of so if i can get it done. Get enough of us who do our own lines regularly and we should see about where it should come out from the books. Damn , thought i was ahead of the game but you guys are way ahead already.
 
after we seen them go in las year week 1 an beat michigan, i wouldnt be shocked if tha line on this game was at all major books in vegas an offshore
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that's what i'm hoping for... espn is airing the game... the public will love to bet appy st and hope for another upset to start the season
 
thx bro....no way it's over 2 or 3 imo..alabama will have a 3rd yr. qb and can win this game easily.
 
Thanks Paul! I have no problem with most of your numbers. A little variation and interpretation is to be expected, especially less than a field goal, and particularly 3 months out still. The one I do disagree with however, is 8 in the USU @ UNLV match. The line was 8 last year in Logan (at least at the open, offshore) and now the scene shifts to Sam Boyd Stadium. Although it will never be confused with the Swamp that home-field has to count for something. I consider the off-season personnel losses to be more or less a wash with Jeremy Geathers/Beau Bell and Kevin Robinson/Frank Maile, everyone else is really pretty replaceable. The problem from State's POV is that their team strength is probably the back seven, which would theoretically be a lifeline if it were Rocky Hinds back there in the pocket distributing it out to the 4-wide sets, but obviously he is gone and you know Frank Summers will be the first option. Add to that a mobile QB and you can see where State's less than stellar defensive front wall is going to be a problem in this game. Setzer (or whoever it ends up being) is probably an upgrade from LJ III, I will give you that. And its also true that the Rebs defense leaves very much desired, but I think they will score enough on offense to make up for any defensive short-comings. I predict another poor year for UNLV, but I don't think it will be evident in this game. I predict them to go from 2-10 up to about 4-8. If this line is below 10 I will very seriously consider the favorite, likewise for the dog if it is over 17, from 10-17 is probably where it belongs and would cause a no-play from me. GL this season.

There are about 5 teams that I know so little about, that it handicapped me from coming up with a good line.

UAB - all I know is they had a new coach, tons of injuries, even more suspensions, little depth, youngest team in the land. I took Tulsa against them as a big favorite and it bit me in the ass.

LT - I know nothing about them under Dooley. Steele said last year that they were going to return to a more open-passing game a la Tim Rattay/Troy Edwards and Co. After looking at their season numbers and box scores I see no evidence of that desire. Is Phillip wrong in his assessment of their plans?

Minnesota - can their defense get any worse? will it improve? what in the hell is Tim Brewster up to? CB and I were off by a TD on this one which is a pretty big gap when the line is in the teens. A difference of 40 to 47 like we had in FIU-KU is negligible, at least to me, as once you get over 35 its all the same anyway and I don't bet those games.

Speaking of Minnesota, I don't know anything about their opponent either. NIU just hired Jerry Kill (probably because he beat them and gave several D1A teams fits and losses) who is a spread guy as far as I know, but that is in fact as far as I know.

Colorado State - what will their offense look like? Is this going to be passing offense like the one Caleb Hannie put up numbers with or will it feature a power game with Kyle Bell?

The commonality here is first and second year head coaches. I don't have a lot of their teams figured out yet. Anything people can add on those five would be HUGELY appreciated.
 
Utah State-UNLV line

Garfather,
I will make a case for my "low" spread on this marquee matchup of CFB's opening weekend.

On paper, UNLV looks improved this year, but therein lies the problem. Under Mike Sanford (and even before), the Rebels seem to gather up a collection of transfers and JC transfers who seem to point towards an improved offense. The proof's in the pudding, however, and, in my mind, it just hasn't meshed and the end result is an offense that averages in the high teens offensively, even against a weak slate of opponents. I handicap from the approach, 'Until I get something different from what I've always got, I'm going to expect to get what I've always gotten' or something along those lines.

While most of my lines are quite heavily based in my power ratings, the Utah State-UNLV is agreeably different. I sometimes evaluate things from more of a technical standpoint _ or a team's performance in a certain pointspread role _ if one stands out.

And in UNLV's case, one certainly stands out. In recent history, the Rebels' performance as a favorite is among the absolute worst in CFB. UNLV has covered just four of its past 20 games when installed as a favorite over the previous six seasons. During his three-year tenure, Sanford, a final season coach in my opinion, is 1-5 ATS as a favorite.

Based on the role and its collection of players, UNLV has not thrived as a favorite.

While UNLV is an exceptionally weak favorite, Utah State is 11-7 ATS as an away dog in three seasons under Brent Guy, including 6-1 in the role last year.

So while I certainly realize the PRs of these teams suggest a higher pointspread, some teams cannot carry the "wood" and UNLV is at the top of the list.

Also relating to another opening weekend matchup, I'm not saying they won't cover, but I have the Demon Deacons of Wake Forest tabbed as a 8 1/2-point favorite over Baylor. Even under Grobe, the Deacs are not a great away favorite and just don't see the linemaker installing them as a DD favorite, even against those battling Baptists from the banks of the Brazos.

Again, great job putting up the "opening numbers" and also appreciate Carolina Blue's solid input.

Damn, it's great to have discussions like this...

Paul
 
yea i'd say Clemson opens up giving 4 at most. tons of action on this game - most of the opening week? - so who knows where the line goes, i'd guess from 3 to 4.5 and back to 3 again.
 
I am real tempted to play Fresno ML no matter what it is in Wk 1. RU is going to air it out a lot w/ Britt and Underwood but the BCS killers should be more than ready for this game
 
Here are the games where all three of us ( garfather, Carolinablue and myself ) expect similar lines. I allowed for a lot more differential the higher the spread got... so the kansas game is listed. In all the other games one of the three of us had what i consider a significantly different expected line. So if someone felt like capping early , it might be fun to cap against these lines below as they are probably the most likely to be similar to what we see

Thursday, August 28
Vanderbilt at Miami (OH) Pick Em -1.5 -1
Oregon State at Stanford -1 or -1.5 -1 pickem

Saturday, August 30

Michigan State at California -8.5 -7.5 -8.5
Hawaii at Florida -26, -28,5 -28
Utah at Michigan -2, -4 -2.5
Illinois at Missouri -9.5, -8.5 -9
Western Michigan at Nebraska -17.5 -14.5 -14
Bowling Green at Pittsburgh -20 -17.5 -20
Florida Atlantic at Texas -24 -28.5 -25.5
USC -17 -21.5 at Virginia usc-17.5
Florida International at Kansas -40 -47.5 -40
Louisiana-Lafayette at Southern Miss -14.5 -12.5 -12.5

Should also be noted that 5dimes had minnesota -14 to n illy in their fcs section. So i guess we should expect that line. shrug.
 
ULL is a live dog. I am waiting for Horn's thoughts on UT laying 24 to the SBC champs. Can UT start off this season covering big spreads, or will they struggle again out of the gate? Oh, and USC should spank the hell out of a depleted UVA squad.
 
vegaskyle said:
Here are the games where all three of us ( garfather, Carolinablue and myself ) expect similar lines. I allowed for a lot more differential the higher the spread got... so the kansas game is listed. In all the other games one of the three of us had what i consider a significantly different expected line. So if someone felt like capping early , it might be fun to cap against these lines below as they are probably the most likely to be similar to what we see

Thursday, August 28
Vanderbilt at Miami (OH) Pick Em -1.5 -1
Oregon State at Stanford -1 or -1.5 -1 pickem

Saturday, August 30

Michigan State at California -8.5 -7.5 -8.5
Hawaii at Florida -26, -28,5 -28
Utah at Michigan -2, -4 -2.5
Illinois at Missouri -9.5, -8.5 -9
Western Michigan at Nebraska -17.5 -14.5 -14
Bowling Green at Pittsburgh -20 -17.5 -20
Florida Atlantic at Texas -24 -28.5 -25.5
USC -17 -21.5 at Virginia usc-17.5
Florida International at Kansas -40 -47.5 -40
Louisiana-Lafayette at Southern Miss -14.5 -12.5 -12.5

Should also be noted that 5dimes had minnesota -14 to n illy in their fcs section. So i guess we should expect that line. shrug.
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Nice job VK, appreciate the early work. While the 5D lines are fun to look at and use as a gauge of sorts, I don't really pay them much attention as they usually offer these early lines with insanely low limits like 50 bucks, so it's hard to gauge what the "real" lines would be at open on some of these games (lines without 50 dollar limits). Therefore, I just look at em for fun but that's it, because they don't do me any good from a betting perspective, since they would probably jump 2 points each time you bet the limit, or least that's how it was last year.

I remember I put in like 7 plays on that Hawaii opening line vs whatever crappy team they played last year early on and I had something like 7 different lines just to get in enough action to win something like 350. Add in the 115 juice they had last year and it was crazy b/c I had like -47, -48.5, -50, -51.5, -53, etc etc. Luckily they all hit because they won by something like 57 or whatever, but it was insane. I did the same thing for a number of the opening week 1-A vs AA matchups, but looking back, man it definitely wasn't worth the hassle for the headache involved.

Not sure if they changed their limits and stuff this year as they won't be an option for me this year, but definitely fun to at least have some lines to look at until the other books release theirs next month.
 
carolinablue said:
Nice job VK, appreciate the early work. While the 5D lines are fun to look at and use as a gauge of sorts, I don't really pay them much attention as they usually offer these early lines with insanely low limits like 50 bucks, so it's hard to gauge what the "real" lines would be at open on some of these games (lines without 50 dollar limits). Therefore, I just look at em for fun but that's it, because they don't do me any good from a betting perspective, since they would probably jump 2 points each time you bet the limit, or least that's how it was last year.

I remember I put in like 7 plays on that Hawaii opening line vs whatever crappy team they played last year early on and I had something like 7 different lines just to get in enough action to win something like 350. Add in the 115 juice they had last year and it was crazy b/c I had like -47, -48.5, -50, -51.5, -53, etc etc. Luckily they all hit because they won by something like 57 or whatever, but it was insane. I did the same thing for a number of the opening week 1-A vs AA matchups, but looking back, man it definitely wasn't worth the hassle for the headache involved.

Not sure if they changed their limits and stuff this year as they won't be an option for me this year, but definitely fun to at least have some lines to look at until the other books release theirs next month.
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I believe dwight said the limits are still the same. i played a few of these last year too ,,,, through a friend but eventually sort of got cut off from betting them. I am talking about the fcs vs fcs though. Just had always wanted to experiment with it. I was fine with the 50 dollar limits cause i wasnt sure i could beat it anyway given far less source material to work with in my capping of it. Read all the fcs threads last year with you and hoopstarr and bull but found it hard to be disciplined enough to cap it out and write down what i would have bet the rest of the way to see if i was good at it, when i didnt have acual money on it. Spent all the time on the fbs instead. plus when the games are 1/20 of a normal unit its hard to get overly excited and to bet more as you said means changing the line on yourself repeatedly and its hard to find enough value to move a line 2 points and still like the play.

In any event , even though those lines the three of us agreed on are premature at this point , i think we can expect them to be very much in that area.

ironically the minny line at 14 prolly means you like the minny side a little and garfather likes the northern illinois side a little :)
 
For what its worth, this is what I have for the early lines:

(Didn't include them beside the others as it looked cluttered to me, if you want me to let me know):

Thursday, August 28
Vanderbilt at Miami (OH) -3
UTEP at Buffalo -2
Troy -3 at Middle Tennessee
North Carolina State at South Carolina -12.5
Oregon State at Stanford PK

Friday, August 29
Temple -4 at Army
Southern Methodist at Rice -3.5


Saturday, August 30
Louisiana-Monroe at Auburn -25
Tulsa -9.5 at UAB
Idaho at Arizona -25.5
Michigan State at California -10
Colorado State at Colorado -4.5
Hawaii at Florida -27
Syracuse at Northwestern -13.5
Utah at Michigan -3
Northern Illinois at Minnesota -11.5
Illinois at Missouri -11
Memphis at Mississippi -7
Virginia Tech -14 at East Carolina
Western Michigan at Nebraska -15.5
Bowling Green at Pittsburgh -17
Wake Forest -13.5 at Baylor
Florida Atlantic at Texas -22.5
USC -23.5 at Virginia
Oklahoma State at Washington State -2.5
Akron at Wisconsin -28
Florida International at Kansas -42
North Texas at Kansas State -27
Boston College -12.5 at Kent State
Mississippi State -10 at Louisiana Tech ESPN/ESPN2
Washington at Oregon -14.5
Louisiana-Lafayette at Southern Miss -13
Ohio at Wyoming -14
TCU -4 at New Mexico
Arkansas State at Texas A&M -19.5
Alabama at Clemson -7
Utah State at UNLV -18

Sunday, August 31
Kentucky at Louisville -4

Monday, September 1
Fresno State at Rutgers -4.5
Tennessee -5 at UCLA
 
hmmmmmmm i am the only one who has made oklahoma state a favorite at washington st.... a bit concerning.

thanks dmoney
 
TheGarfather said:
Colorado State - what will their offense look like? Is this going to be passing offense like the one Caleb Hannie put up numbers with or will it feature a power game with Kyle Bell?

The commonality here is first and second year head coaches. I don't have a lot of their teams figured out yet. Anything people can add on those five would be HUGELY appreciated.
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Power running game. Having Kyle Bell back at 100% along side Gartell Johnson (126 ypg last year) combined with the lack of an experienced QB will set the tempo for their offense. I'm not sure if that's Fairchild's desire for the future, but it is his only chance this year. They do get back Kory Sperry (6'6" TE) and he went into last year as their best recieving option, but beyond him the receivers group isn't great.
 
It's still June so its apt to change.

I rarely trust Okla St. on the road, and I think the game means more to the Cougars as the schedule doesn't set up well for too many wins this season. I do think they are a bit underrated coming into the season as a lot of top guys on the D are back. Andy Mattingly is really the unsung hero of that team, but he doesn't get the recognition he deserves.
 
Blue_Chip said:
ULL is a live dog. I am waiting for Horn's thoughts on UT laying 24 to the SBC champs. Can UT start off this season covering big spreads, or will they struggle again out of the gate? Oh, and USC should spank the hell out of a depleted UVA squad.
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I don't think this usm team cleared 30 points in any of their home games last year against fbs schools, so i am not sure i would be in any rush to lay a big number with them. They did suffer about as many qb injuries as any team that i can remember. New systems to learn and 5 starting sophomores on defense for usm might make ull a live dog , certainly more live than most two td underdogs. BTW lots of those sophomores are on the DL so Desormeuax running could give them some fits as well. The talent level between the two teams is pretty significant though. USM is one of the better recruiting schools in conference USA and lets face it the sunbelt gets a lot of "leftovers".
 
My main concern is Fletcher going against a ULL run defense that couldn't stop anyone last season.

On the other hand, they could stack the line until USM proves that they can throw with any consistency.
 
why do you guys have mizzou such heavy favs. its a neutral field...just curious?
 
only got sum


Thursday, August 28
Vanderbilt -3 at Miami (OH)
UTEP at Buffalo PK
Troy -3 at Middle Tennessee
North Carolina State at South Carolina -10.5
Oregon State at Stanford PK

Friday, August 29
Temple -3.5 at Army

Saturday, August 30
Louisiana-Monroe at Auburn -18
Tulsa -13 at UAB
Idaho at Arizona -18.5
Michigan State at California -5
Colorado State at Colorado -7
Hawaii at Florida -27
Syracuse at Northwestern -13.5
Utah at Michigan -4.5
Northern Illinois at Minnesota -10
Illinois at Missouri -7.5
Memphis at Mississippi -7
Virginia Tech -12 at East Carolina
Western Michigan at Nebraska -13.5
Bowling Green at Pittsburgh -17
Wake Forest -13 at Baylor
Florida Atlantic at Texas -17.5
USC -21 at Virginia


Sunday, August 31
Kentucky at Louisville -3

Monday, September 1
Fresno State at Rutgers -6
Tennessee -6 at UCLA<!-- / message -->
 
HUNTDOG said:
why do you guys have mizzou such heavy favs. its a neutral field...just curious?
Click to expand...

Haven't done a full analysis of any of the big conf matchups as you know me, I am all about the under the radar games, but I will give a few off the cuff thoughts that are just off the top of my head....

Chase Daniel carved up the Illini defense big time last year, and Mizzou pretty much was able to score at will, as they had the game well in hand up 24 before letting Illinois make it somewhat interesting at the end, losing only by 6. The game last year was also on a neutral field in the EJ Dome, and I see both teams putting up a lot of points, but Mizzou to me is the more talented and complete team in this matchup, and I look for them to have a legit shot at another top 10 finish this year as long as they play up to their potential with most of their guys back.

The fast field will benefit both teams no doubt, but I just see Mizzou being focused on not letting the same thing happen this year that happened last year in this matchup, with regard to the mental letdown towards the end. Probably won't be much value in the line either way, but I might be tempted to take Mizzou if I could get less than a TD in this one, who knows.
 
ehhh, i did that real quick, already don't like a few of them.


is M(OH) really going to be favored? Are we going by the fact that they lost last yr 23-14 @ Vandy and then taking in all of Vandy personel losses on top of 17 back for M(OH)? Vandy ran for 290 on them last yr, they have to retool the whole OL but the defense should be stingy. I dont see MOH doing much on them, thinking maybe under here but if Vandy is a dog, they will get a long look
 
Based on all the current projected lines we have tossed around so far, there are the 5 that I would probably be on...

Miami OH
Kansas
Temple
Rice
Tulsa

Not a dog in the bunch...are you guys really surprised haha. Great discussion, definitely a good way to pass the time and get some initial thoughts out there, so that it will make things much more smooth once the actuals come out at The Greek. They usually release lines in late July, so I will probably get my cashier's check on its way before the 4th so that I won't have to worry about missing the opens.
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
only got sum


Thursday, August 28
Vanderbilt -3 at Miami (OH)
UTEP at Buffalo PK
Troy -3 at Middle Tennessee
North Carolina State at South Carolina -10.5
Oregon State at Stanford PK

Friday, August 29
Temple -3.5 at Army

Saturday, August 30
Louisiana-Monroe at Auburn -21
Tulsa -13 at UAB
Idaho at Arizona -18.5
Michigan State at California -5
Colorado State at Colorado -8.5
Hawaii at Florida -27.5
Syracuse at Northwestern -13.5
Utah at Michigan -4.5
Northern Illinois at Minnesota -10
Illinois at Missouri -7.5
Memphis at Mississippi -7
Virginia Tech -12 at East Carolina
Western Michigan at Nebraska -13.5
Bowling Green at Pittsburgh -17
Wake Forest -13 at Baylor
Florida Atlantic at Texas -21
USC -24 at Virginia


Sunday, August 31
Kentucky at Louisville -3

Monday, September 1
Fresno State at Rutgers -6
Tennessee -6 at UCLA<!-- / message -->
Click to expand...

tweaked a few
 
carolinablue said:
Based on all the current projected lines we have tossed around so far, there are the 5 that I would probably be on...

Miami OH
Kansas
Temple
Rice
Tulsa

Not a dog in the bunch...are you guys really surprised haha. Great discussion, definitely a good way to pass the time and get some initial thoughts out there, so that it will make things much more smooth once the actuals come out at The Greek. They usually release lines in late July, so I will probably get my cashier's check on its way before the 4th so that I won't have to worry about missing the opens.
Click to expand...

I like the majority of those CB with the exception of Tulsa. I may be on UAB ML there - Tulsa is on my fade list this season.
 
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