Week 1 in the FCS

[s--k]

Thursday, August 28

Matchup​	Time (ET)​	TV/Mobile​
Mercyhurst at Youngstown State	6:00pm	ESPN+
McKendree at Indiana State	6:00pm	ESPN+
Lafayette at Bowling Green	6:00pm	ESPN+
Delaware State at Delaware	7:00pm	ESPN+
Towson at Norfolk State	7:00pm	ESPN network
Saint Francis U. at ULM	7:00pm	ESPN+
Dayton at Eastern Illinois	7:00pm	ESPN+
Lindenwood at St. Thomas	7:00pm	MidcoSports+
West Georgia at Samford	7:30pm	Nexstar/ESPN+
Upper Iowa at Drake	7:30pm	ESPN+
Elon at Duke	7:30pm	ACCNX/ESPN+
Central Arkansas at Missouri	7:30pm	SECN
Arkansas Baptist at HCU	7:30pm	ESPN+
UT Martin at Oklahoma State	7:30pm	ESPN+
Stephen F. Austin at Houston	8:00pm	ESPN+
Alcorn State at Northwestern State	8:00pm	ESPN+
Alabama State at UAB	8:30pm	ESPN+
Stony Brook at San Diego State	Time TBA	TV TBA

Date	Team	Standing	Scr	Pred	Pwin	Margin	Total
Thu 08.28 4:00.PM.ET	Stony Brook @ San Diego St	# 55 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	14 35	9 % 91 %	-21.5	51.5
Thu 08.28 6:00.PM.ET	Lafayette @ Bowling Green	# 65 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	10 38	3 % 97 %	-28.5	49.5
Thu 08.28 6:00.PM.ET	McKendree @ Indiana St	(0-0) # 66 (0-0)	0 0	7 34	5 % 95 %	-26.5	52.5
Thu 08.28 6:00.PM.ET	Mercyhurst @ Youngstown St	# 122 (0-0) # 27 (0-0)	0 0	10 42	3 % 97 %	-32.5	56.5
Thu 08.28 7:00.PM.ET	St Francis PA @ ULM	# 95 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	7 36	2 % 98 %	-29.5	48.5
Thu 08.28 7:00.PM.ET	Delaware St @ Delaware	# 118 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	7 42	1 % 99 %	-34.5	53.5
Thu 08.28 7:00.PM.ET	Dayton @ E Illinois	# 115 (0-0) # 73 (0-0)	0 0	14 31	11 % 89 %	-16.5	47.5
Thu 08.28 7:30.PM.ET	TN Martin @ Oklahoma St	# 11 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	14 41	6 % 94 %	-26.5	57.5
Thu 08.28 7:30.PM.ET	Elon @ Duke	# 39 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	7 38	1 % 99 %	-31.5	50.5
Thu 08.28 7:30.PM.ET	Cent Arkansas @ Missouri	# 25 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	7 42	1 % 99 %	-35.5	53.5
Thu 08.28 7:30.PM.ET	West Georgia @ Samford	# 75 (0-0) # 37 (0-0)	0 0	21 35	21 % 79 %	-13.5	55.5
Thu 08.28 8:00.PM.ET	SF Austin @ Houston	# 29 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	10 38	4 % 96 %	-27.5	49.5
Thu 08.28 8:30.PM.ET	Alabama St @ UAB	# 87 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	7 38	2 % 98 %	-31.5	49.5
Thu 08.28	Towson @ Norfolk St	# 44 (0-0) # 105 (0-0)	0 0	31 17	82 % 18 %	-14.5	52.5
Thu 08.28	Upper Iowa @ Drake	(0-0) # 100 (0-0)	0 0	13 28	15 % 85 %	-14.5	48.5

Ark Baptist @ Houston Chr

(0-0) # 91 (0-0)

0 0

0 59

0 % 100 %

-59.5

61.5

Alcorn St @ Northwestern LA

# 106 (0-0) # 120 (0-0)

0 0

28 21

66 % 34 %

-6.5

51.5

Lindenwood @ St Thomas MN

# 72 (0-0) # 110 (0-0)

0 0

28 21

72 % 28 %

-7.5

52.5

Friday, August 29

Matchup​	Time (ET)​	TV/Mobile​
Campbell at Rhode Island	6:00pm	FloFootball
Tarleton State at Army	6:00pm	CBSSN
Bethune-Cookman at FIU	7:00pm	ESPN+
Monmouth at Colgate	7:00pm	ESPN+
New Haven at Marist	7:00pm	TV TBA
Wagner at Kansas	7:30pm	ESPN+
Western Illinois at 11 Illinois	7:30pm	Peacock

Fri 08.29 6:00.PM.ET	Tarleton St @ Army	# 22 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	10 38	3 % 97 %	-28.5	52.5
Fri 08.29 6:00.PM.ET	Campbell @ Rhode Island	# 70 (0-0) # 33 (0-0)	0 0	21 31	23 % 77 %	-10.5	52.5
Fri 08.29 7:00.PM.ET	Monmouth NJ @ Colgate	# 38 (0-0) # 88 (0-0)	0 0	35 24	75 % 25 %	-11.5	59.5
Fri 08.29 7:00.PM.ET	Bethune-Cookman @ Florida Intl	# 112 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	7 38	2 % 98 %	-31.5	51.5
Fri 08.29 7:30.PM.ET	Wagner @ Kansas	# 113 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	0 49	0 % 100 %	-48.5	53.5
Fri 08.29 7:30.PM.ET	W Illinois @ Illinois	# 83 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	7 49	0 % 100 %	-42.5	57.5

New Haven @ Marist

(0-0) # 126 (0-0)

0 0

28 17

80 % 20 %

-11.5

48.5

Saturday, August 30

Matchup​	Time (ET)​	TV/Mobile​
North Dakota State at The Citadel	12:00pm	ABC ND / Nexstar / ESPN+
Richmond at Lehigh	12:00pm	ESPN+
Merrimack at Kent State	12:00pm	ESPN+
Duquesne at Pitt	12:00pm	ACCN
VMI at Navy	12:00pm	CBSSN
Georgetown at Davidson	1:00pm	ESPN+
Stonehill at Sacred Heart	2:00pm	TV TBA
Robert Morris at West Virginia	2:00pm	ESPN+
Fordham at Boston College	2:00pm	ACCNX/ESPN+
William & Mary at Furman	2:00pm	ESPN+
Butler at Northern Iowa	2:00pm	ESPN+
CCSU at UConn	2:00pm	WWAX/UConn+
Virginia-Lynchburg at Valparaiso	2:00pm	TV TBA
Cumberland at Tennessee Tech	2:30pm	ESPN+
Chadron State at Northern Colorado	3:00pm	ESPN+
Hampton at Jackson State	3:00pm	HBCU GO
Eastern Kentucky at 22 Louisville	3:00pm	ACCN
Bucknell at Air Force	3:30pm	CBSSN
Holy Cross at NIU	3:30pm	ESPN+
South Dakota at 14 Iowa State	3:30pm	FOX
Maine at Liberty	4:00pm	ESPN+
Montana State at 8 Oregon	4:00pm	BTN
Howard vs Florida A&M (in Miami Gardens, FL)	4:00pm	ESPNU
Alabama A&M at Arkansas	4:15pm	SECN
Chattanooga at Memphis	4:30pm	ESPN+
North Carolina A&T at Tennessee State	4:30pm	ESPN+
Southern at MVSU	5:00pm	SWAC TV
Murray State at ETSU	5:30pm	ESPN+
New Hampshire at NC Central	6:00pm	ESPN+
Gardner-Webb at Western Carolina	6:00pm	ESPN+
Illinois State at 25 Oklahoma	6:00pm	SECN+/ESPN+
Allen at Morehead State	6:00pm	TV TBA
Webber Intl. at Stetson	6:00pm	ESPN+
UAlbany at Iowa	6:00pm	FS1
Presbyterian at Mercer	6:00pm	ESPN+
Wofford at SC State	6:00pm	ESPN+
Weber State at James Madison	6:00pm	ESPN+
Sacramento State at South Dakota State	7:00pm	ESPN+
Southeast Missouri at Arkansas State	7:00pm	ESPN+
North Dakota at 18 Kansas State	7:00pm	ESPN+
Thomas More at Southern Illinois	7:00pm	TV TBA
Morgan State at South Alabama	7:00pm	ESPN+
Louisiana Christian at McNeese	7:00pm	ESPN+
Nicholls at Troy	7:00pm	ESPN+
LIU at 19 Florida	7:00pm	SECN+/ESPN+
Eastern Washington at UIW	7:00pm	ESPN+
Austin Peay at Middle Tennessee	7:00pm	ESPN+
North Alabama at WKU	7:00pm	ESPN+
Charleston So. at Vanderbilt	7:00pm	SECN+/ESPN+
Southeastern La. at Louisiana Tech	7:30pm	ESPN+
UAPB at 16 Texas Tech	7:30pm	ESPN+
Portland State at 10 BYU	8:00pm	ESPN+
Langston vs Grambling State (in Shreveport, LA)	8:00pm	SWAC TV
Cal Poly at San Diego	8:00pm	TV TBA
Prairie View A&M at Texas Southern	8:00pm	SWAC TV
Lamar at North Texas	8:00pm	ESPN+
Abilene Christian at Tulsa	8:00pm	ESPN+
Sul Ross State at UTRGV	8:00pm	ESPN+
Idaho State at Southern Utah	8:30pm	ESPN+
Bryant at New Mexico State	9:00pm	ESPN+
East Texas A&M at 15 SMU	9:00pm	ACCN
UC Davis at Utah Tech	10:00pm	ESPN+
Northern Arizona at 12 Arizona State	10:00pm	ESPN+
Idaho at Washington State	10:00pm	The CW

Sat 08.30 12:00.PM.ET	VMI @ Navy	# 92 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	3 44	0 % 100 %	-40.5	48.5
Sat 08.30 12:00.PM.ET	Duquesne @ Pittsburgh	# 76 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	7 46	1 % 99 %	-38.5	54.5
Sat 08.30 12:00.PM.ET	Merrimack @ Kent	# 80 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	20 31	23 % 77 %	-10.5	52.5
Sat 08.30 12:00.PM.ET	N Dakota St @ Citadel	# 2 (0-0) # 64 (0-0)	0 0	38 7	98 % 2 %	-31.5	51.5
Sat 08.30 12:00.PM.ET	Richmond @ Lehigh	# 21 (0-0) # 56 (0-0)	0 0	28 21	68 % 32 %	-6.5	49.5
Sat 08.30 1:00.PM.ET	Georgetown @ Davidson	# 109 (0-0) # 116 (0-0)	0 0	28 26	53 % 47 %	-2.5	55.5
Sat 08.30 2:00.PM.ET	Fordham @ Boston College	# 77 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	6 45	0 % 100 %	-38.5	52.5
Sat 08.30 2:00.PM.ET	Central Conn @ Connecticut	# 90 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	7 42	1 % 99 %	-34.5	50.5
Sat 08.30 2:00.PM.ET	Robert Morris @ West Virginia	# 96 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	3 47	0 % 100 %	-43.5	52.5
Sat 08.30 2:00.PM.ET	Butler @ Northern Iowa	# 102 (0-0) # 34 (0-0)	0 0	14 35	9 % 91 %	-21.5	52.5
Sat 08.30 2:00.PM.ET	VA-Lynchburg @ Valparaiso	(0-0) # 121 (0-0)	0 0	7 40	1 % 99 %	-33.5	50.5
Sat 08.30 2:30.PM.ET	Cumberland TN @ Tennessee Tech	(0-0) # 46 (0-0)	0 0	3 41	0 % 100 %	-37.5	48.5
Sat 08.30 3:00.PM.ET	E Kentucky @ Louisville	# 26 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	7 45	1 % 99 %	-37.5	53.5
Sat 08.30 3:30.PM.ET	Bucknell @ Air Force	# 89 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	7 42	1 % 99 %	-35.5	51.5
Sat 08.30 3:30.PM.ET	South Dakota @ Iowa St	# 4 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	14 38	6 % 94 %	-23.5	51.5
Sat 08.30 3:30.PM.ET	Holy Cross @ N Illinois	# 24 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	14 31	13 % 87 %	-16.5	49.5
Sat 08.30 4:00.PM.ET	Maine @ Liberty	# 53 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	13 38	6 % 94 %	-24.5	53.5
Sat 08.30 4:00.PM.ET	Montana St @ Oregon	# 3 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	14 42	5 % 95 %	-27.5	56.5
Sat 08.30 4:00.PM.ET	Florida A&M Howard Miami Gardens FL	# 74 (0-0) # 98 (0-0)	0 0	27 21	65 % 35 %	-5.5	50.5
Sat 08.30 4:15.PM.ET	Alabama A&M @ Arkansas	# 103 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	3 50	0 % 100 %	-46.5	55.5
Sat 08.30 4:30.PM.ET	Chattanooga @ Memphis	# 15 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	13 38	6 % 94 %	-25.5	52.5
Sat 08.30 6:00.PM.ET	SUNY Albany @ Iowa	# 45 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	3 44	0 % 100 %	-40.5	48.5
Sat 08.30 6:00.PM.ET	Weber St @ James Madison	# 18 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	14 38	8 % 92 %	-23.5	54.5
Sat 08.30 6:00.PM.ET	Illinois St @ Oklahoma	# 17 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	7 42	1 % 99 %	-35.5	51.5
Sat 08.30 6:00.PM.ET	Allen @ Morehead St	(0-0) # 117 (0-0)	0 0	14 35	9 % 91 %	-20.5	50.5
Sat 08.30 6:00.PM.ET	Gardner Webb @ W Carolina	# 57 (0-0) # 28 (0-0)	0 0	24 34	28 % 72 %	-9.5	58.5
Sat 08.30 6:00.PM.ET	Presbyterian @ Mercer	# 123 (0-0) # 9 (0-0)	0 0	7 42	1 % 99 %	-35.5	51.5
Sat 08.30 6:00.PM.ET	Webber @ Stetson	(0-0) # 127 (0-0)	0 0	21 35	21 % 79 %	-13.5	56.5
Sat 08.30 6:00.PM.ET	Stonehill @ Sacred Heart	# 119 (0-0) # 107 (0-0)	0 0	17 27	22 % 78 %	-10.5	47.5
Sat 08.30 6:00.PM.ET	Wofford @ S Carolina St	# 62 (0-0) # 58 (0-0)	0 0	20 24	39 % 61 %	-3.5	48.5
Sat 08.30 7:00.PM.ET	SE Missouri St @ Arkansas St	# 36 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	20 35	18 % 82 %	-14.5	56.5
Sat 08.30 7:00.PM.ET	LIU Post @ Florida	# 93 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	0 48	0 % 100 %	-48.5	52.5
Sat 08.30 7:00.PM.ET	North Dakota @ Kansas St	# 8 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	10 42	3 % 97 %	-31.5	56.5
Sat 08.30 7:00.PM.ET	Austin Peay @ MTSU	# 31 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	21 28	32 % 68 %	-6.5	52.5
Sat 08.30 7:00.PM.ET	Morgan St @ South Alabama	# 94 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	7 45	0 % 100 %	-37.5	50.5
Sat 08.30 7:00.PM.ET	Nicholls St @ Troy	# 54 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	10 38	2 % 98 %	-28.5	50.5
Sat 08.30 7:00.PM.ET	North Alabama @ WKU	# 52 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	14 38	7 % 93 %	-24.5	53.5
Sat 08.30 7:00.PM.ET	Charleston So @ Vanderbilt	# 79 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	3 44	0 % 100 %	-41.5	49.5
Sat 08.30 7:00.PM.ET	Louisiana Chr @ McNeese St	(0-0) # 63 (0-0)	0 0	3 51	0 % 100 %	-48.5	56.5
Sat 08.30 7:00.PM.ET	Thomas More @ S Illinois	(0-0) # 12 (0-0)	0 0	3 43	0 % 100 %	-39.5	49.5
Sat 08.30 7:30.PM.ET	SE Louisiana @ Louisiana Tech	# 42 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	17 31	17 % 83 %	-13.5	51.5
Sat 08.30 7:30.PM.ET	Ark Pine Bluff @ Texas Tech	# 124 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	3 55	0 % 100 %	-52.5	58.5
Sat 08.30 8:00.PM.ET	Portland St @ BYU	# 43 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	13 49	2 % 98 %	-35.5	58.5
Sat 08.30 8:00.PM.ET	Lamar @ North Texas	# 67 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	13 41	5 % 95 %	-27.5	55.5
Sat 08.30 8:00.PM.ET	Abilene Chr @ Tulsa	# 14 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	28 31	42 % 58 %	-3.5	62.5
Sat 08.30 8:00.PM.ET	Prairie View @ TX Southern	# 111 (0-0) # 114 (0-0)	0 0	25 26	49 % 51 %	-1.5	52.5
Sat 08.30 8:00.PM.ET	Cal Poly @ San Diego	# 78 (0-0) # 99 (0-0)	0 0	27 24	59 % 41 %	-3.5	52.5
Sat 08.30 8:30.PM.ET	Idaho St @ Southern Utah	# 51 (0-0) # 23 (0-0)	0 0	28 35	31 % 69 %	-7.5	62.5
Sat 08.30 9:00.PM.ET	Bryant @ New Mexico St	# 82 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	17 38	11 % 89 %	-20.5	55.5
Sat 08.30 9:00.PM.ET	East Texas A&M @ SMU	# 97 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	3 50	0 % 100 %	-46.5	54.5
Sat 08.30 10:00.PM.ET	Northern Arizona @ Arizona St	# 16 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	7 41	1 % 99 %	-33.5	50.5
Sat 08.30 10:00.PM.ET	Idaho @ Washington St	# 7 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	17 37	13 % 87 %	-20.5	57.5
Sat 08.30	CS Sacramento @ S Dakota St	# 20 (0-0) # 1 (0-0)	0 0	14 40	6 % 94 %	-26.5	55.5
Sat 08.30	UC Davis @ Utah Tech	# 5 (0-0) # 71 (0-0)	0 0	35 17	86 % 14 %	-17.5	55.5
Sat 08.30	Murray St @ ETSU	# 85 (0-0) # 40 (0-0)	0 0	21 35	18 % 82 %	-14.5	54.5
Sat 08.30	E Washington @ Incarnate Word	# 19 (0-0) # 13 (0-0)	0 0	31 34	46 % 54 %	-2.5	64.5
Sat 08.30	William & Mary @ Furman	# 30 (0-0) # 48 (0-0)	0 0	27 24	55 % 45 %	-2.5	51.5
Sat 08.30	Hampton @ Jackson St	# 68 (0-0) # 49 (0-0)	0 0	24 31	33 % 67 %	-6.5	55.5
Sat 08.30	Southern Univ @ MS Valley St	# 104 (0-0) # 125 (0-0)	0 0	30 20	76 % 24 %	-9.5	49.5
Sat 08.30	NC A&T @ Tennessee St	# 101 (0-0) # 61 (0-0)	0 0	21 34	20 % 80 %	-12.5	51.5
Sat 08.30	New Hampshire @ NC Central	# 32 (0-0) # 50 (0-0)	0 0	28 25	56 % 44 %	-2.5	54.5
Sat 08.30	Chadron St @ N Colorado	(0-0) # 84 (0-0)	0 0	13 34	8 % 92 %	-20.5	48.5
Sat 08.30	Sul Ross @ UTRGV	(0-0) # 128 (0-0)	0 0	28 27	51 % 49 %	-0.5	58.5
Sat 08.30	Grambling Langston Shreveport LA	# 108 (0-0) (0-0)	0 0	48 7	100 % 0 %	-41.5	53.5

 

[s--k]

^Above, those are the preseason Massey lines copied and pasted.

The only real lines I have seen so far came out last Monday at FanDuel. They were:

Game ... open I saw ... ... current
Elon at Duke -29.5/47.5 ... ... 33.5/47.5
USD at ISU -15.5/46.5 ... ... 15.5/46.5
Mont St at Oregon -25.5/54.5 ... ... 25.5/55.5
Weber at JMU -25.5/54.5 ... ... 25.5/54.5
Ill St at Okla -35.5/59.5 ... ... 35.5/60.5 (dipped to 34.5 back up to 35.5)
UND at Kan St -28.5/56.5 ... ... 28.5/56.5
Port St at BYU -30.5/56.5 ... ... 34.5/56.5
NAU at AzSt -28.5/52.5 ... ... 28.5/52.5
Idaho at Wazzou -12.5/50.5 ... ... 9.5/50.5


Will be back tonight and start posting thoughts on some games

 

[s--k]

Lafayette at Bowling Green

Saint Francis U. at ULM

Delaware State at Delaware

Elon at Duke

Central Arkansas at Missouri

UT Martin at Oklahoma State

Stephen F. Austin at Houston

Alabama State at UAB

Stony Brook at San Diego State

Tarleton State at Army

Bethune-Cookman at FIU

Wagner at Kansas

Western Illinois at 11 Illinois

Duquesne at Pitt

VMI at Navy

Merrimack at Kent State

CCSU at UConn

Fordham at Boston College

Robert Morris at West Virginia

Eastern Kentucky at 22 Louisville

South Dakota at 14 Iowa State

Holy Cross at NIU

Bucknell at Air Force

Maine at Liberty

Montana State at 8 Oregon

Alabama A&M at Arkansas

Chattanooga at Memphis

Illinois State at 25 Oklahoma

UAlbany at Iowa

Southeast Missouri at Arkansas State

Nicholls at Troy

Morgan State at South Alabama

North Dakota at 18 Kansas State

Charleston So. at Vanderbilt

Austin Peay at Middle Tennessee

North Alabama at WKU

LIU at 19 Florida

Southeastern La. at Louisiana Tech

UAPB at 16 Texas Tech

Portland State at 10 BYU

Abilene Christian at Tulsa

Lamar at North Texas

Bryant at New Mexico State

East Texas A&M at 15 SMU

Idaho at Washington State

Northern Arizona at 12 Arizona State

These should be just the Week 1 FCS-FBS games. Figured I would start looking through these as they will be the first line releases, some already out. I will have to repeat, I don't follow or handicap any FBS teams and my knowledge of them for any of these matchups is pretty limited.

Lafayette at Bowling Green. Lafayette was a good Patriot League Champ in 2023. They had a lot of good players back last year (QB, RB, #1 WR), retained all their coordinators, but did lose some of their best All Conference players on OL, DL and LB. The basic defensive numbers on PPG and YPG and YPP were all relatively the same '23 to '24. But they dropped from 37 sacks to just 12 last year and had 35 fewer TFLs which plays into the rushing numbers ticking up. The negative plays they created really fueled their D in their conference title and playoff season. Anyway, Buffalo hosted them in last year's season opener as a small home fav, -3.5 and it was 16-0 HT and 30-13 F with a 403-223 tll yard edge (5.8-3.5 ypp) for the Bulls. UB was a pretty good sleeper team last year. Lafayette travels to play BGSU in this year's opener...and BGSU maybe could say they were a sleeper team coming into last year as well considering how strong they played vs PSU and aTm and they blasted another Patriot League team in last year's opener, 41-17 as 15.5 pt fav with a 475-401 ttl yard edge (8.5-6.2 ypp). I don't know what kind of team BG will be this year, not sure anyone knows. Lafayette does have that same QB back DeNobile for his 3rd year starting. He had 6 fewer TD passes and 7 more INTs comparing '23 to '24. They have a running QB too that might get some more PT. Same #1 WR in Steward, receiver overall may be a little weaker to start the year. Big loss at RB with Curtis transferring to Sac St and they lose a good #2 RB. Kind of a mystery if they have a real good option here. 8 different OL started last year, 6 are back. Lose their best, a 2nd Tm LT, but also have a Fr AA back at C. It's not a very big OL. They couldn't run on Buffalo last year and UB got almost a dozen TFLs and a few sacks on them.

The D for Lafayette is more of the concern. They've been a top 3 D in the league the last 2 years, top 1 or 2 in some categories. But they lose a lot there and they don't bring in a lot in way of transfers. 3 of 4 starters gone on DL and they lose their best DE and DT and it's an undersized group. Top 3 LBs gone. Lose team MVP at S, lose 1st Tm PL CB who was D MVP - overall the top 4 producers at their respective DB positions are gone.

Eddie George got a late start at BGSU and the look to be completely new at a lot of spots. The Massey number is quite big 28.5 which is 2 TDs higher than the BG-Fordham line and BG only won that by 24 (the Fordham O was a train wreck last year, Lafayette definitely more capable than that). Lafayette O is veteran enough that they will find their way to a couple scores especially considering the newness of the BG D. Not sure how far would have to go back to find when BG won by that many points. They only beat Eastern Illinois by 23 2 years ago. I see they beat Kent by 30 that same year. If the total is 49.5, that could be an Over play. It is hard to see this particular Lafayette D getting consistent stops, so I have to assume BG will score. Dog / Over at the Massey numbers is what I'd say.

Saint Francis at ULM. Get the impression ULM is dead team walking right now (lots of speculation they could drop down to FCS), something about how much they are cutting their athletic budget and stuff, I don't know. I do know that I expected a very good Jackson State team to beat them last year and came away from that assumption very disappointed as ULM won 30-14 as a 4.5 pt fav. SFU has only played MAC in their FBS games recently. Nearly beat Akron 3 years ago, did beat Kent last year (SFU ran on them pretty good), played WMich twice. 3-1 ATS in those. Think Sun Belt, even ULM, will be step up from what they faced in Kent last year. If the online roster I evaluated is correct, SFU returns all their QBs who split time, but all the skill players from last year are gone, literally all their receivers who caught a pass except for two guys (they had 20 combined catches among them). SFU has had some decent RBs through the years, the guys they had last year are gone, top 2 transferred out. SFU is dropping to Dlll next year so hard to keep or attract talent here right now. OL returns 2 starters, maybe a couple guys who spot started, they are young. They had 3 All-NEC performers on D and of course they are all gone. #1 tkl'r LB back who was Fr AA, good for him to show loyalty, but he's the 1 of the just 1 of the top 9 tkl'rs back and only 4 of top 15. They had 8 guys transfer out on D to decent FCS or surprisingly 5 went FBS. Another really big line here and while I can find some redeeming qualities in Lafayette's team, I can not do the same here. Laying nearly 30 with ULM? Don't think that is my kind of thing either. Will have to pass unless different numbers come out.

Delaware State at Delaware. DeSean Jackson's coaching debut and Delaware's debut game as an FBS team. Hens usually beat them soundly, but not real bad. Another high spread. I really just want to skip this game. It will be interesting to see former Sac State QB Kaiden Bennett here who just transferred in last couple weeks which caused DSU's relatively decent playmaking QB Adams to transfer out. Bennett is pure wildcard, boom-bust. Kind of an attitude issue guy too. Jackson only coached one year of high school football, he has 3 former NFL players on his staff (Clinton Portis, Sammy Parker and Eugene Chung). They are boasting that they are going to get kids ready for the next level. Eh...

Elon at Duke. I did play Duke at various numbers. Duke only won 26-3 last year in a game they utterly dominated, but Duke was lacking some O and that was the key. Outgained them 350-140...only led 10-0 HT. Duke had 8 sacks and 16 TFLs. Not sure about Duke, probably better this year? Elon likely will not be better and actually should be worse. I expect a huge downgrade at QB, lose their top 2 WRs, but have some decent guys around, have a good RB in Thomas, but will the line open any holes for him? They had a very experienced OL last year and that clearly did not matter in the game vs Duke before. 6 of the top 10 OL are back, but the 4 gone were their 4 best. UNH got 9 sacks on them, so it wasn't like they just had a bad game vs Duke. DL, just like OL, they bring back 5 of top 10, but the ones gone are their best (4 of top 6 tkl'rs gone from unit and actually 3 DL transferred to ACC). 3 of top 4 LBs gone with 2 going FBS. Lose #1 and #2 tkl'r at DB, a few CBs are back....but I would have to expect Duke to come close to doubling their scoring output of last year and if the Elon O of last year could only manage a FG, I can't see this unit having much more success. The larger spread this year vs last is justified.

Central Arkansas at Missouri. Was talking about some games in Carolinablue's thread. Thought blindly playing SEC vs FCS is a good idea. I was pretty down on UCA this year, but after looking into them I might think they will be better than what I thought, but in no way would I think that matters here. UCA has had some pretty high level FCS guys the last couple years at QB, RB, DE (they had the 3X UAC D POY!). Just about all their best guys are gone. The coaching staff has squandered the talent and their window to compete in the playoffs would appear to be closed. After I looked at some of the guys on their roster left behind, I do think there is a chance they play better than expected in the UAC, but not vs Missouri. They return a Fr AA WR, but he's the only guy among their top 8 receivers from last year who is back. They will be handing the keys over to a new QB (who did play last year after their 3 year starter was injured), two elite RBs gone, OL is filing holes and back 7 on D especially looks weaker. The last high profile FBS game UCA had was 2 years ago at Oklahoma State where they were really in that game. But I would think this one goes more like their 2022 game at Ole Miss (where they lost 3-59)...except maybe this version of Mizzou can't score that many?

UT Martin at Oklahoma State. UTM has a very good head coach and it may not be wise of me to underestimate him (UTM has won atleast a share of their conference title 4 straight years. If they do it this year with this team I will hold coach Simpson's accomplishment in the highest regard. Probably going to be Jace Bower at QB, top 8 receivers are gone, add a SHU transfer RB, but RB looks down as well from their normal standard. 9 of 10 OL from final depth chart are gone. Top 7 on the DL are gone, 5 of top 7 LBs gone - Secondary, they have good players there still. Overall they only return 6 of their top 21 tacklers and 6 of their All Big South/OVC players are gone. Oklahoma State is floundering, or is that a one season dip? UTM lost at Kan St by 35 last year and lost by 42 at UGA '23...lost by 23 to Boise, lost by 38 to WKU, lost by 45 vs Florida. This team just does not compete vs FBS and that was with better rosters than where this team currently finds themselves.

Stephen F Austin at Houston. This is an interesting one. No connection, but it kind of reminds me of ACU-TTech last year. I think SFA can be really good this year. They do have some questions at LB and DB, but everywhere else this is a team that can make a round 2 run in the playoffs if they stay healthy where they have to. Believe I heard something that SFA was the only FCS team that was top 15 in O and D ypp gained/allowed. Pretty good all around team. Their problem last year? They blew some really inexplicable games (like losing to McNeese and agonizing fashion). QB Vidlak in his first year here after transferring from Montana had a real nice year 27-4 ratio, 9 games before injury. Top 8 receivers back (Harris 87-1039-10). Lose top RB, but they have some other guys back who had some better ypc and caught more passes, but the big story could be former Big Xll Fr POY 2022 Reese is in from Baylor where he saw his PT drop each of the last 2 years for one reason or another. 7 of top 10 OL back with 3 full time starters and 4 who started overall. The DL is deep. Half of the team's top 14 tacklers came from the DL and 6 of those 7 are back. 8 of top 10 DL back overall, not too many teams have that much depth returning. Two guys were All SLC at DE and NG. Bring back one key LB, but 5 of 6 gone here and lose some top players at SS, FS and CB although they do return the reserves and some other CBs. Naturally they turned to the portal to fill these needs. They are hoping a multi-year All Conference starter from Tuskegee in Moore pans out at LB and a little used UIW LB Lewis and a couple JUCOs and a Dlll LB were added also. They added a 3 year starter from HCU at CB. So can't deny some concern what the LB and DB units are going to be like game 1 vs Houston. HC Carthel has seen his teams underperform in the past when they had expectations, so there is that as well. However, SFA usually has frequent turnover at their coordinator positions. This is the first time in 5 years that they are not replacing an OC or DC as both are back. DC was Tulane LB coach for several years under Willie Fritz. This line as Massey suggests I would say is way too high. Not sure on Houston, but if the LB and DBs replacements end up being competent, is this an upset candidate? School me on Houston...

Alabama State at UAB. Alabama State has had outstanding Ds in the SWAC last couple years, very very very good. DC is on UAB now. How about that? ASU also loses a ton of production and guys from their D too. They lose their top 6 tacklers 5 of which were 1st Tm SWAC. 8 of top 9 and 10 of top 13 overall tacklers gone. 33.5 of their sacks from last year are gone and they return just 5.5. Their D has been excellent at creating turnovers, 27 gained last year was #7 nationally and alot of those guys causing those fumbles, tipping those passes, getting those INTs are gone. As is their DC. So not sure ASU can keep it going on D. And D is really all they have. It's an average at best SWAC O and more often a below average unit. They did bring in a special player in QB Andrew Body from Texas Southern last year, but he was injured in the opener. If he is healthy, curious to see what he does. They did bring in some new transfers to compete with him. There are some decent skill guys if their get the QB right and lose #1 RB, but #2 RB was having real good season before injury (Hostzclaw, he;s back). OL looks pretty decent. Dilfter having a rough go of it at UAB? Surely he will like taking on this year's ASU D instead of the '23 or '24 units. Assuming a drop off in the ASU D and if Body is the playmaker here everyone hopes he is, then this might be an Over. The DC changing teams and facing off vs old team here is an interesting angle.

Stony Brook at San Diego State. The final FBS-FCS game on opening Thursday. This Stony Brook team is on the rise. Coach Cosh won multiple COY awards after 1 year here. Took them from 0-10 to 8-4 to the bubble of the playoffs. Big question for them is QB. One of their guys ran last year out of eligiblity and the Fr surprisingly transferred. They bring in a vet from Hampton Zellous who is a great athlete, but he's not a great thrower and comes here with a career 18-23 TD-INT ratio. The San Diego State teams I used to know like to kind of stink it up on O but boy do they like to capitalize on turnovers. No guarantee Zellous wins the job, they do have '23 starter Case who stuck around, but he's not that good. This team is fairly good every where else. RB, Dempster burst on the schene as an AA. Lose a couple receivers, but should be ok. OL first team group should be pretty good. Lose AA DE, but 5 of 8 DL are back otherwise. DL is on the light side (avg 254 lbs). Good LBs return. Secondary loses all it's top players, so that's the concern. They failed to compete in their FBS game last year, but that was game 1 for staff and all these players learning the new systems at Marshall (lost 3-45 as 31.5 pt dogs, Marshall had 549-252 yard edge). San Diego State scored 45 in beating East Texas A&M by 31 last year, but that was boosted by turnovers. That game was just 6-3 HT and just 24-14 late 3Q before Aztecs scored final 21 that included a 45y pick-six (their second D score of the game). San Diego State was pretty bad last year huh? Sean Lewis not cut out to keep the tradition going here? San Diego State 0-3 ATS their last 3 vs FCS (all lined in the 30s), go back to 2021 to find their last cover vs Towson as 22.5 pt fav, won 48-21. The vaunted Aztec D allowed a fairly limited East Texas A&M O to score 14 last year, then allowed Idaho STate to score 28 in Hawkin's first year. They did limit a worse Idaho STate to 7 the year prior and then saw Towson score 21 on them. Guess it all comes down to Zellous, if he's up for this and takes care of the ball. This line projecting to be just 21.5, so either some respect for Stony Brook or sign that these Aztec ain't our old Aztecs.

 

[s--k]

Trickle trickle, this morning I see at FanDuel:

San Diego St -12.5 / 53.5
Liberty -26.5 / 52,5
Iowa -33.5 / 45.5

 

[carolinablue]

Trickle trickle, this morning I see at FanDuel:

San Diego St -12.5 / 53.5
Liberty -26.5 / 52,5
Iowa -33.5 / 45.5

I took SD State this morning at the 12.5 110 as I expect this line to get closer to 17 by kickoff. Not sure what to expect from their offense but even if they go run dependent, the defense should be able to limit this solid Stony Brook team, so mainly a line value play for me as I thought it would open at 17.5

 

[s--k]

Definitely surprised it opened at 12.5 comparing their other lines vs FCS

I thought about Iowa but that’s just so many pts to have them cover

Not a real exciting 3 game release for me

 

[carolinablue]

Definitely surprised it opened at 12.5 comparing their other lines vs FCS

I thought about Iowa but that’s just so many pts to have them cover

Not a real exciting 3 game release for me

Yeah Iowa should destroy a sorely overmatched Albany team but that may only translate to 31-0 so a pass for me.

 

[carolinablue]

Main ones I’m waiting on next are the SEC ones, Navy, Illinois and SMU.

 

[s--k]

Friday games...

Tarleton at Army. Tarleton doesn't hide their ambitions to be an FBS program and therefore this is going to be a very big game to improve upon the outcomes they've had in prior blowout losses vs Big Xll teams. Army incredibly tough and they do well vs FCS teams. Beat the eventual Patriot League champ in last year's opener 42-7. For some context, Lehigh was a team that was coming off a 2-9 season and they played better as the season went on last year. Just saying week 1 Lehigh was not the same as week 12 Lehigh. Tarleton is going to be the best FCS team Army has played, in... a while at least. Villanova only finished 6-5 the year Army soundly beat them. ACU was just 1-5 in the Covid year and lost to Dll team that season, so another not good FCS opponent. This is going to be a pretty interesting game that I am excited to watch. Not sure what I would say from a betting perspective. Massey has 28.5 pts and I'll say that is a lot for a 2024 playoff team, a team that probabaly would've made the playoffs in 2023 had they been eligible and this year 2025 should also be a playoff team. So one of the FCS' best 20-something teams the last 3 years traveling to West Point to start Friday night off! I don't have my own data on Tarleton, but from other things I have read or heard, they return a lot on defense and remain deep. While there are some holes on O (if you watched the Eagles preseason game Thursday night you saw WR Cooper), the pieces they are filling in with should be good. Lehigh really struggled to do much on O last year vs Army. Tarleton has been one of the top Os in the FCS, down a few weapons, granted, but I would think they stand a chance to at least hang around some. How QB Gaballis plays will be the biggest thing because he can be INT prone when he tries to do too much.

Bethune Cookman at FIU. Some teams I just have no interst in trying to get up to speed on. No idea about Bethune Cookman. Normally they are bad and 40 pt losses to FBS are the norm. Willie Simmons in from FAMU. BC beat Simmon's FAMU teams his first 2 seasons, but Simmons built up FAMU and by the time he left he had 25 pt and 21 pt victories in the Florida Classic rivalry. No clue on FIU and likely not to look. The Simmons vs Cookman familiarity and his first HC gig at FBS is enough to get me to tune in and see how it's going.

Wagner at Kansas. Wagner was steeprolled on the stat sheet at FAU to the tune of 567-132 ttl yards, but Wagner only lost by 31 catching 35. UMass didn't do as well with the yards (only +108), but they would beat Wagner 35-7 last year. Rutgers beat them 52-3 in '23 and 66-7 in '22. Also in '22 Syracuse beat them
59-0. I haven't done my homework on Wagner this year, but KU obviously runs away with this and names their score, and one of those games were KU could cash the game Over themselves. One cavet, Missouri is the ondeck game for KU. Last game in the 'border war' was 2011 so while they could be pulling the reigns in early on this one, they likely keep scoring with their reserves. Jayhawks beat Lindenwood 48-3 in last year's opener (34-0 HT finiehd 530-202 ttl yard edge) and Lindenwood turned out to be improved last year. Wagner is weaker.

Western Illinois at Illinois. Game has been discussed some in the other active threads. Western isn't going to be able to do much here obviously. For me, the question remains how the game unfolds late in the action. If Illinois gets up enough early enough they should be fine and add a couple scores with their backups through the normal action. Thinking Illinois can approach 40 in the 1H and likely limit W ILL's output to a single score at best. Last year ILL got up 31-0 HT on E ILL and won 45-0. The other FCS they played under Bielema was in 2022, when they got up 24-0 HT vs Chattanooga and won just 31-0. So Illinois is 2-0 ATS under Bielema at Illinois. At Arkansas he went just 1-4 ATS with some big lines (-47 vs FAMU won by 42, -49 vs Alcorn won by 42, -37 vs UTM, won by 35, -41 vs Nicholls won by 66 and -32.5 vs Samford, won by 10. Avg margin of victory in the 7 games at both schools is 38.7 ppg. At Illinois they have had big 1Hs and lighter 2Hs. At Arkansas the results were mixed 1H vs 2H. I tend to think that a bet on Illinois is going to need most of the damage to be done in the 1H as the reserves will be in 2H and just looking at the last couple games, they don't come out the same in the 2H here in these lower level opponent games. I still believe that a 1H is my approach. Massey has 42.5, which they could cover that as well, I just don't see them keeping the foot on the gas here like Indiana did vs Western Illinois last year. As for what Western Illinois has to offer in this one, new HC Joe Davis turned a JUCO into a record setting QB for the program last year. Think it speaks to the credit of the coach and their longer term growth. As for now though, that QB is gone and can't be very optimistic out the gate with what they appear to have as a replacement to start this season and the roster overall doesn't jump out in any kind of positive way. So Illinois is going to do what they want. How fast do they do it and how long do they do it for?

 

[s--k]

Work the way through a few more games...Saturday now

Duquesne at Pitt. Got to give it to Duquesne HC, 20th season, 10x shared or outright conference championships. Missed the automatic playoff last year by virtue of tiebreaker loss to CCSU in a game they threw 7 INTs and only lost by 7! Anyway, QB Perrantes is gone, 6800y and 89 TDs passing. They brought in Tyler Riddell who some FCS fans might remember from the 2021 11-2 ETSU team when he was a Fr AA. Was at GW last year (2573-62.8%-16-10). This is his 7th year, but feel like he is a downgrade from Perrantes. Duquesne could've done worse, but also doesn't exactly make me feel great either. Has the #1 and #4 WRs back, lose #1 RB, have the reserves back. OL is good, 4 full time starters back and a 5th who spot started. Some questions in the middle of the DL and some bigger questions at LB with a lot of lost production there. Secondary for them should be fine (for their season, not exactly vs Pitt). Toledo beat them 49-10 last year as 28.5 pt favs 446-282 ttl yard edge. BC beat them 56-0...563-135 ttl yards - and this wasn't a bad Duquesne team last year, it was actually pretty good. WVU beat them 56-17 and Coastal Carolina 66-7 in 2023 and that was the year that Duquesne made the playoffs. Duquesne is also in Pittsburgh. How will Pitt handle that? Well, last year they didn't go light on YSU, where Narduzzi's Dad coached and is in the HOF at YSU, Pat attended and played there one season and last year Pitt beat YSU 73-17. Maybe Narduzzi won't want the look of running it up on a fellow Yinzer lower level school though? Over is probably good. Pitt scores as many as they want and Duquesne probably scores when Pitt's 3rd team and walkons are playing late.

VMI at Navy. Copying from post in Carolinablue's thread. I would have to assume Navy is a good play if the line is in the 30s, not sure about 40s. VMI is strange because their HC, Danny Rocco is pretty respected and a long time head coach at various FCS schools all with success. Not sure why he took this job. But his first year here 2023 he had them at 5 wins off a 1 win season the year prior and then last year they dropped back down to 1 win. #1 QB (guy who started some games in '23 and one as tFr in '22), Shannon was hurt in game 2 last year and the offense was just down right putrid. 8 games vs FCS they didn't even make it to 250 ttl yards and and half those games they didn't make it to 200! I do not think VMI takes transfers. Big problem in this era because their best players generally transfer out and they can't replace them other than trying to develop freshmen. There is really nothing to like here unless Rocco can create some magic and Shannon's return from injury results in a significant improvement of O. Even if it does, the D looks like it will remain pretty rough. Looks like Navy is pretty good and should roll it up here I'd assume.

Merrimack at Kent State. Kent lost to Saint Francis last year. SFU has had some good teams not too long ago, they were in the playoffs 2022, they nearly beat Akron that year. Last year they were not good at all which makes the Kent loss to them a worse black eye. Merrimack was tough vs Air Force last year and then UConn blew their doors off. Lost to UMass by 10 in 2023. They haven't played a lot of FBS teams as this is just maybe their 6th year as a Dl program. Speaking of SFU, Merrimack added SFU's #1 RB MeElroy this year in the portal. Merrimack hit a homerun with SHU's RB Colbert last year and they usually fashion a good running game. Problem is the OL appears to lose every starter and a top reserve, and the guys last year were pretty good just by judging where they landed at (URI, W&M, BC and one NFL camp invite). QB Pereira will run too, not a good passing team (about a 70% run 30% pass team the last 2 seasons). Online roster said that one of their top DL was back, it was wrong, he's not so the top 4 DL from last year are gone. Have some decent players at LB, but the secondary looks weak. CJ Montes is at Kent I see. He flirted with going to FAMU in the spring, but stayed at Kent. Pretty good QB for them after the horrific offense they had last year. I wouldn't think Kent loses to them, but who lays 10.5 points with Kent? Well, a 1-11 Kent team did beat CCSU 38-10 2023 (scored more in that game then their first 3 MAC games combined that season). Massey says 52.5 is the total, that is high for a Merrimack game. I didn't see anyone total the Merrimack/Bucknell game, but otherwise only one Merrimack game was totaled at 50, most were mid-upper 40s. (5 out of 10 Under). They were held under 200y of O 2x last year (Maine and Morgan St and held under 270 vs RM and Dartmouth). Maybe Kent's O is leaps and bounds better with Montes and Merrimack D should be worse...still thinking Under (kind of feels risky if Kent O does get going) and gun to head, Kent (gulp).

CCSU at UConn. The roster I evaluated was the spring roster online at CCSU, so not sure it is 100% accurate. The biggest thing is their OL did lose guys, 4 OL were All NEC and only 1 of those is back. Just 2 starters return, 6 of top 10 overall back, but the other 4 were reserves that didn't play. QB Olsen back (former UMass, he was just 51% with a 15-9 ratio last year here) and they return NEC Fr POY RB Howard. Lose top 2 WRs. Thing is this offense was not good last year anyway, in conference play, so just against other NEC teams on O they were 4.3 ypp (6th in the league) and 24.8 ppg (4th) vs the likes of Wagner and Stonehill and you know those defenses (by comparison the #1 O in the NEC last year was 2 yards per play and 12 pts per game better than CCSU's O). They hung their hat on dramatically improved D and had a few games with huge turnover edges. 2 best DL gone, 2 best LBs are back, biggest hits are in the secondary where they do return the NEC D ROY at FS, but lose basically everyone else (5 of top 7 gone). I would not think the offense that CCSU fieled last year is going to hang here and the D is going to be a couple steps back and facing an improving UConn team it probably won't go well. Line projects to be nearly 5 TDs though. Mora faced CCSU in just his second game here and won 28-3 as 20.5 pt fav (UConn only scored 4 TDs+ 3 games that year and CCSU finished 2-9 that year). If the line were to happen to open low, maybe based on CCSU's season last year, maybe there is opportunity to grab UConn there, but I can't lay something in the 30s if it is that.

Fordham at Boston College. Fordham O dropped from 30.5 ppg 2023 to just 17.8 ppg last year. I assume Gunnar Smith is going to win the QB job (former UCF/USF). Capaldi filled in when Montes went out last year and he's back, but really is not good. Smith had some success at JUCO last year, but never did much at the FBS schools he was at. I don't know how good their receivers are, their best player on O (RB Loughridge) transferred to SDSU. They lose 103 career starts on the OL and return just 25 spread across 6 players. They also lose the PL D POY on the DL and their best CB transferred out to Samford. They have some guys back on D, noteably LB Conway who is PL all time tackle leader (436). Thinking on the total, the old Fordham games are hard to compare because they used to be fantasic offensive team so they pulled their weight on totals. BC should do well here. Their last 4 FCS games comparing this Massey total of 52.5 (56-0 Duq '24, 31-28 HC '23 - HC was strong offense and solid D, 38-17 Maine '22, 51-0 Colgate '21 and we can count UMass 45-28 also '21). A game like the Maine game is worrisome from a BC or Over perspective, but while Maine was pretty bad that season, so was BC. So a 'normal' BC team shouldn't have a game like that vs a team like Fordham. I would hope that Fordham could contribute a couple scores towards the total unless the OL is just so overmatched they can't do anything.

Robert Morris at West Virginia. Rich Rod back where he belongs! I'm not sure what anyone thinks of WVU this year, but RM looks like they will be fairly bad. Their 2 yr QB Chiccitt transferred to Temple and they may be turning to last year's backup Tanner. Top 8 receivers are gone and I could say looking at some of their OL that they lose 8 of their top 11 guys there. 2nd Tm NEC RB gone, top 4 RBs gone in fact. DL loses 8 of top 10, LB lose top 3, DBs are wiped out. So I'm like, yeah, WVU, then I see Massey PR has this line at 43.5...oh...well, RM may not score based on what they are working with and WV could score a lot even if they aren't a good team as of yet. Will have to see what the real line is.

 

[s--k]

I'm crazy, can't lay points with Kent State!

 

[s--k]

Iowa line open 33.5 to 37.5. Albany QB who started final 3 games last year, Weber, out for year with knee injury. It is said he was not the guaranteed starter this year anyway, but might explain the 4 pt move. I assumed it would be him starting, but not like I know what is happening at their camp. The line actually went to 35.5 where it sat for a few days before bumping to the current 37.5, total moved 2 pts upward.

 

[carolinablue]

Appreciate you taking the time to write all of these up! A few of these are on my short list if the lines open at 37.5 or less with the exception of UConn which I would need 27.5 or less. The ones not on the list are BC and Kent as I trust neither. I do like the Pitt over angle as I have been focused on sides only, but actually agree on the over if it comes out in the 52-54 range.

 

[s--k]

Typing/writing it up is a good way my brain can see where I stand or where I might stand, so mutually beneficial if others take something from it

Not enough time to do them all, but I am kind of trying

 

[carolinablue]

A handful of others just came out at FD but none on my list of course..

 

[carolinablue]

Took Oklahoma State -21.5 115 because I think that one will cross 24 sooner vs later

 

[carolinablue]

Here are the ones that came out earlier…

Okie State -21.5 115…now 22.5 115 vs UTM
Houston -23.5 105 vs SFA
Troy -22.5 110 vs Nicholls
Arky State -11.5 115 vs SEMO
La Tech -14.5 105 vs SELA
NMSU -19.5 110 vs Bryant

 

[carolinablue]

Took Vandy 35.5 110

 

[s--k]

I didn’t see any til this morning and they’re mostly the same.

These were good ones for me. I took; SEMO+11.5 and small ML, SLU+14.5 and small ML, Vandy-36.5, SFA+23.5 and small ML, OkSt-22.5

Will get into some reasons on those at some point.

 

[s--k]

Not sure you it was in that batch or you might’ve missed it but Illinois out now too. 45.5/61.5

 

[carolinablue]

Not sure you it was in that batch or you might’ve missed it but Illinois out now too. 45.5/61.5

Yeah it was 39.5 yesterday and I noted in my thread that I considered it but 37.5 was my go number so even though I knew it was gonna cross 42, I want to stick to the plan as I could see 42-3 or 38-0 get in and out type game which is why I put my ceiling at 37.5. With that said, 56-0 also easily possible.

 

[s--k]

Wow that was a big mover. I can see why I would’ve taken upper 30s and low 40s. I give you credit on your discipline.

 

[carolinablue]

Wow that was a big mover. I can see why I would’ve taken upper 30s and low 40s. I give you credit on your discipline.

I try to be the tortoise as I prefer slow and steady one unit at a time, trusting my ceilings each step of the way, but even with all that I know I will still get hundreds of calls wrong throughout the season given my volume.

 

[carolinablue]

Below I will post my remaining list of ceilings. Note this doesn’t include games with openers that I don’t expect to come close to what I want (Okla State last night is a good example as I thought that would be 28.5 or more so 21.5 was a no brainer even though it wasn’t on my posted watch list).

Curious to get your thoughts on any that you think are crazy or no chance to come close to what I’m hoping for.

 

[carolinablue]

37.5 or less
WVU
Pitt
Missouri
Arkansas
Tx Tech
SMU
Vandy - played at 35.5

34.5 or less
Navy
Louisville
South Alabama

27.5 or less
Air Force
Delaware
Connecticut

I also like your over on Pitt but I don't think that one will come out low enough, as I would like less than 52 in order to play the over in that one

 

[s--k]

I really have no firm basis on any FBS teams other than running to read what somebody else’s opinion on them is. So please keep that in mind.

I think the OkSt-UTM line might’ve opened lower than expected based off of UTM’s 2024 PR being high. I think they fall a good amount this season. Good coach, good history but it’s a near complete lineup overhaul.

Duq has been good an RM was been respectable in their new conference last year so perhaps that keeps those numbers closer to what their PR was for ‘24. I think RM is going to really struggle this year and would like to take WV under -40. It could open there, WV is no gem right?

UCA has been another team FCS followers have come to respect their potential, which they have almost always failed to deliver on. But based on that narrative, Missouri could open lower than they should. I would like mizzou too.

There is no chance Texas Tech opens in the 30s given who they are playing

I’m unsure how SMU opens but I know I’d want to play them. East Texas Am isn’t completely bad but they are bad enough

I think Navy could approach 40 either at open or shortly after. VMI was one of the worst Os in country last year their PR must be extremely low

EKU is a very solid program but they do not compete well with FBS. Their history in these games likely makes for a high open.

Everyone likely remebers the S Bama - NWSt game last year so that will probably result in a bump of the number before they open it. Morgan is not NWSt but that likely won’t matter as it’s all going to be S Bama money so they’ll open accordingly.

Bucknell is a better team, offense at least than anyone following just FBS knows. How much oddsmakers know on that plus the fact AF hasn’t covered much as big fav vs FCS, I think you could get your number here. Bucknell D is bad, but their O should get a couple scores.

I think I said something on Delaware in your tread and I forget exactly what it was, something about them maybe winning soundly vs DSU but not just destroying them. The hype on DSU could keep line down. They just signed a 4* WR out of the portal nobody else would touch because the kid pistol whipped somebody. So those are some of the types Jackson is going after. I don’t think anyone knows if that team will compete better or suck still. Kaiden Bennet at QB is upgrade, but he’s never had these weak of a supporting cast.

UConn could open there because of what CCSU did last year but it probably quickly goes over 30.

 

[carolinablue]

I really have no firm basis on any FBS teams other than running to read what somebody else’s opinion on them is. So please keep that in mind.

I think the OkSt-UTM line might’ve opened lower than expected based off of UTM’s 2024 PR being high. I think they fall a good amount this season. Good coach, good history but it’s a near complete lineup overhaul.

Duq has been good an RM was been respectable in their new conference last year so perhaps that keeps those numbers closer to what their PR was for ‘24. I think RM is going to really struggle this year and would like to take WV under -40. It could open there, WV is no gem right?

UCA has been another team FCS followers have come to respect their potential, which they have almost always failed to deliver on. But based on that narrative, Missouri could open lower than they should. I would like mizzou too.

There is no chance Texas Tech opens in the 30s given who they are playing

I’m unsure how SMU opens but I know I’d want to play them. East Texas Am isn’t completely bad but they are bad enough

I think Navy could approach 40 either at open or shortly after. VMI was one of the worst Os in country last year their PR must be extremely low

EKU is a very solid program but they do not compete well with FBS. Their history in these games likely makes for a high open.

Everyone likely remebers the S Bama - NWSt game last year so that will probably result in a bump of the number before they open it. Morgan is not NWSt but that likely won’t matter as it’s all going to be S Bama money so they’ll open accordingly.

Bucknell is a better team, offense at least than anyone following just FBS knows. How much oddsmakers know on that plus the fact AF hasn’t covered much as big fav vs FCS, I think you could get your number here. Bucknell D is bad, but their O should get a couple scores.

I think I said something on Delaware in your tread and I forget exactly what it was, something about them maybe winning soundly vs DSU but not just destroying them. The hype on DSU could keep line down. They just signed a 4* WR out of the portal nobody else would touch because the kid pistol whipped somebody. So those are some of the types Jackson is going after. I don’t think anyone knows if that team will compete better or suck still. Kaiden Bennet at QB is upgrade, but he’s never had these weak of a supporting cast.

UConn could open there because of what CCSU did last year but it probably quickly goes over 30.

Appreciate you taking the time to comment, much appreciated! Yeah I know TT is a pipe dream but didn’t feel like doing a separate category for em as I might take 44.5 or better with them

 

[carolinablue]

FYI I submitted a special request for all the lines above to bookmaker so we’ll see if they respond and get em up before FanDuel

 

[carolinablue]

Thank you for the information provided, I have forwarded your Line Request to our proper team, it will be reviewed as soon as possible.

 

[s--k]

Thank you for the information provided, I have forwarded your Line Request to our proper team, it will be reviewed as soon as possible.

Fear I have is I will be driving alone a couple long days leading into week 1 and I'm afraid lines are going to come out and I won't know it. Might need you to text me!

I am going to request more live FCS at the books this year, which I have done before and never got anywhere. Bovada offers about a half dozen or so live FCS games per week which is the primary reason I keep an account there.

 

[carolinablue]

Fear I have is I will be driving alone a couple long days leading into week 1 and I'm afraid lines are going to come out and I won't know it. Might need you to text me!

I am going to request more live FCS at the books this year, which I have done before and never got anywhere. Bovada offers about a half dozen or so live FCS games per week which is the primary reason I keep an account there.

I am driving seven hours to Maryland tomorrow and then seven hours back Sunday so hoping nothing comes out during that 14 hour window haha

 

[steponaduck]

No bigger mismatch in the college leagues (with games NOT involving the swac) than:
W. Illinois vs Illinois
WMI vs Navy
SFPA vs ULM

Anything under 40 should be a play here

 

[s--k]

Going to try and run through the rest of the FCS-FBS games because I need to shift to FCS-FCS games this week. I have a bunch of stuff that is going to interfere with football stuff the next 3 weeks.

EKU at Louisville. EKU 4-6 ATS vs FBS their last 10 with the covers coming vs EMich '22, BGSU '22, UK'23 and LV '21 and the losses vs MissSt, WKU, Cin, Marsh, WVU, LV '19. They are just 1-3 ATS the last 2 years. They were outgained 917-561 (7.6-4.1 ypp) vs MissSt and WKU last year losing 7-87 combined. And they were outgained in 7 of 11 vs FCS last year. They were average O, pretty good D and good TO margin and they went 4-1 in one score games and two of those wins they were outgained by 123 and 190 yards vs Tarleton and UCA in consecutive weeks but won both . Don't think I would be playing them here. Might have an upgrade at QB, WR is a strength, lose a really good RB with no new transfers to replace him and OL loses some multiyear starters including an AA, but do have some good experience to put together a good OL. One 1 of the 4 All Conference guys on D are back. I don't know about Louisville, but I'm not going to expect EKU gets blown out or hangs in here. Line could be mid/upper 30s.

South Dakota at Iowa State. This game is interesting in that ISU will be coming back from the Ireland game for whatever that is worth win or lose. They hosted UND last year to open the season and really underperformed vs a UND team with a completely new OL. USD will have nearly a completely new OL as well this year after they had some transfers leave after spring. In total USD is down 3 AA OL and 4 full time starters overall. But they are as hyped as they are because of last year's playoff run and Bouman at QB (former ISU QB) who enters his 3rd year starting here and they have an AA RB returning. Major questions at WR and TE and again the OL. DL had some very big questions as well, but they did get an 18 game starting DT either come back to team or granted more eligibility. Huge losses at LB and DB. So this is not the same team that went to the semifinals in the FCS playoffs last year. HC retired as well and was replaced with the promoted DC and the OC is being replaced as well. Not really ideal stuff to back them here. ISU has been very unpredictable in these kinds of games, mostly failing to cover. They are in a big sandwich spot coming off Ireland Big Xll game and have Iowa on deck. This line has been out for a couple weeks 15.5/46.5 and hasn't moved.

Holy Cross at Northern Illinois. Everyone knows Holy Cross to be a good team. They have won a share or outright the Patriot Leauge title 6 straight years! Last year they were 6-6, but 5-1 in league play. 8 of their games were decided by one score and they went 3-5 in those. Big questions this year. When Sluka left everyone knew that Pesansky was good. Now Pesansky is gone and nobody knows who's next or if they are any good. Return last year's backup who only played in 1 game '24 and 0 games '23. Added Swanson from Illinois but he never played in 2 years there. Clerveaux emerged as a great RB after Fuller was injured. He's back and their #1 WR is back, but not much else returns for them at receiver, just some big young guys who are unproven. Just 3 of 8 OL who started last year are back, did add a Davidson starting OL. DL is definitely set to be the strength of their D, with top 5 back adn 8 of top 10 overall. LB and S lose all the best guys. CB is good. They didn't add any transfers on D. The run D was outstanding for them last year, and the O was very efficient. The DL might be able to do their part but everyone else on D? And the O figures to not be close to as good, I would expect Clerveaux to be relied upon heavily. NIU has stacked a couple good seasons together, but now they lost a ton (viral video of Hammock online talking about guys choosing to leave and stuff now). NIU certainly looks vulnerable with their losses and Holy Cross has done well vs the MAC as they beat Buffalo on a hailmary 2022, beat UConn 2021 and nearly beat Boston College 2023. Those were pretty loaded HC teams though (they were 22-4 W/L 2021-22) and the '23 team was really strong too. I really don't know what their QB situation is going to look like, but if this line were to open too high (Massey 16.5) might have to give them a shot.

Bucknell at Air Force. Ralph Rucker was Patriot League O POY last year and is back for his 3rd year starting for the Bison after transferring over from Oklahoma. They also return the PL Fr POY in RB Thomas. #1 WR was 1st Tm PL and transferred to Ball St, but next 4 WRs are back who all put up good numbers. OL returns their best 2nd Tm PL C and 3 others who started last year are back, but they do lose both their primary starters at LG and RG. #1 total O, passing O, pass eff O, scoring O in the Patriot League. What they don't have is defense, last in total D (97th nationally). Most of the defensive starters are gone, which is maybe a good thing. They basically gave up 6 ypp or worse in about every game. They lost at Navy last year 21-49, but the final score is a little misleading in that Bucknell scored a TD with :30 left in the game (Navy scored TD with just :14 left in the 1H). Navy also had TD drives of 23 and 31 yards following Bucknell turnovers. That's all in how the game unfolds and something similar in a high scoring game could take place this year at Air Force. Can't have any confidence in this Bucknell D, but having some faith in their offense isn't too much of a stretch. Bucknell actually put up some better yards and ypp vs Navy then they did in a few of their FCS games last year. Given their O and their D, Bucknell and Over would be considerations.

Maine at Liberty. Maine has 6th year QB who was a starter at Mercer for the spring 2020-21 season, a backup for 2 years, started for Mercer again 2023 and then transferred here to start last year. He's played a lot of ball, not especially great in and of himself, but can lead an offense and limit mistakes (which also restricts risk for big plays). He creates a low ceiling on the offense. They lose their top WRs and TEs, but do have some interesting transfers who might be pretty good. Running game is not good, added a Dll kid to see if he can spark it. The is kind of average, have occasionally had some really bad 3rd down conversion rate games. Not sure how they stack up vs Liberty, I wouldn't think all that well. Biggest problem, the D which is bad in all the categories you don't want. A couple key guys are back at LB and S, but really they lose the bulk of what were their best players.

Montana State at Oregon. I will copy from discussion on Carolinablue's thread. The thing we all think about is the Idaho-Oregon game last year, and that might be top of mind for Oregon coaching staff and players as well. Idaho did have a strong defense last year (that got banged up as the season went on), but obviously they did a great job in Autzen week 1 - BUT, Oregon still gained nearly 500y on them, just 24 pts though. Montana State's DL will be terrific this year despite losing the Big Sky D POY and they are deep still. Elsewhere the D is more iffy, LBs, but they should be ok enough for FCS there, not sure about vs Oregon, but especially the secondary which could best be called questionable and there is a new CB coach. That is where I would assume this team is going to be vulnerable early in the season. Unless the DL just has a lot of wins and causes pressure....so depending how you or anyone thinks Oregon is going to be offensively and the OL, you can weigh that accordingly.

Of course we know Tommy is gone at QB. Most seem to think that Vigen is going to go with a 2-QB system he did with Chambers and Mellot prior to last year, with last year's backup Wilson splitting time with incoming transfer Lamson from Stanford who Vigen recruited out of HS. Lamson is not a good passer and nobody really knows if Wilson is a good passer. Good being, Mellot was somewhat of a limited passer as well, but he had been in so many battles and played so many games even if he only read half the field, it was good enough for them and his athletic ability was outstanding. I think Wilson and Lamson probably possess some of that ability with their legs, but arm? Don't know. Guess I'm assuming it is Wilson/Lamson, could be Duchien/Lamson. Compare that to Idaho vs Oregon last year, Idaho really didn't do much of anything on offense, but their QB was a known commodity in that when they lost their 2 year starter after the 2023 season, nobody in the fan base was worried because they knew or had heard Layne's ability and cool demeaner. Again, he didn't do much, but it was assumed he could. He only passed 11-25-168-1-1 and was sacked 4x. Now we are talking about Montana State QBs we don't really know what they can or could do. Montana State QBs can escape the pressure better than Layne could, but not sure they will have much more success passing. Cats also have a new OC, so another unknown variable if or how much they will deviate from the normal Vigen script.

Best thing about the MSU offense is their RB room and it is stacked. They are legit 4 deep so that is what Montana likes to do anyway, run, and these guys can do that. The OL took some hits in terms of guys lost, but they played so many guys out of necessity (injuries) and luxury (were up big in so many games). I don't know exactly how good the Oregon front is going to be, I'll assume very good just because, but I wouldn't think the MSU first line OL unit is going to be vastly overwhelmed. When they have to sub and rotate, that could be an issue because the good depth guys are now starters so the new depth guys could be vastly overmatched vs what the Ducks are going to have.

Capable OL depsite some big name losses, great RB unit...QB is a question. Great DL, probably ok at LB and secondary is a question.

One other note, well actually two. First, Montana State has a HUGE home game on deck week 2 vs SDSU. It's their "gold rush" game and they have only beaten SDSU 1 out of 5, losing the last two on the road one was a playoff elimination in '22 and the other most recent was '23 when MSU kicked 3 short RZ FGs and only scored 1 TD on 5 trips which allowed Jacks to come back and win. So whatever that is worth, big game.

In 2022 Oregon State blew Montana State's doors off by 40. That Montana State team, those Montana State teams finished 11-4 2019, 2020 no games, 12-3 2021, 12-2 2022 so those were good Bobcat teams and they weren't close to that other Oregon team. Line was 25.5 for a while and did bump up 2 points just this week.

 

[s--k]

Alabama A&M at Arkansas. A&M has new HC this year Sam Shade from Miles. In SWAC play A&M has good O and bad D. When they play better FCS teams or FBS teams the bad D part is all that matters. Lost to Arkansas last year by 70 and Austin Peay by 43 (AP wasn't good last year). They did cover a +36 spread losing by 34 at Vandy '23 (Vandy scored 21 4Q pts and led 47-10 late). Not sure how relevant, but going back further, UAB waxed them 59-0 as a 40.5 pt fav in '22 and they did cover vs Troy although Troy led 31-3 4Q before winning by 21 as 37 pt fav. Would probably have to lay mid 40-something in this one, which I don't think I want to do. Could look for a 1H line perhaps.

Chattanooga at Memphis. UTC is almost always solid team, this year, likely going to be a challegne to remain their solid standard. Sometimes the cover vs Group of 5, not usually vs Power 4. 3-5 ATS their last 8 overall vs FBS, 2-0 vs Group of 5 and 1-4 vs Power 4. So if this was a typical UTC team vs Memphis, maybe they'd have a chance of hanging around. I really don't know about this year though. #1 QB Artopoeus got hurt last year and backup Schomberg showed not to be so good. Artopopeus is gone, Schmoberg is back, it's either him or Orth from BGSU. Meh. They lose their top 3 WRs who were all pretty good and they all transferred out to FBS, 2 to P4. Top RB gone. They lose 93 starts on the OL including an AA who transferred out. The 3 who started last year have 20 career starts among them. Really downgraded across the board from the team they fielded last year (and at QB before injury). 16 different players started on D last year, just 2 CBs are back! 7 players on D were recognized as All SoCon and they're all gone. They had 8 on D transfer out to FBS and 2 others had NFL camp invites. Naturally there are incoming transfers, but this is a complete overhaul on both sides of the ball for a team that usually has some returning players to rely on here and there. So I'd have to look and see what Memphis is like if I was inclined to play this game.

Illinois State at Oklahoma. Illinois State has a lot on offense back, their DL is FCS good and LBs ok, the secondary is an issue. The main issue is this team did not compete well with the best FCS last year (lost by 32 at home to NDSU and by 32 at UC Davis in the playoffs - not to mention Missouri State who was good, not great last year beat them by 34 - and Iowa beat them 40-0 (was just 6-0 HT). I guess people are saying Oklahoma will be better this year. It might not matter if they are better or not. Illinois State is better than Maine for sure, but OU waxed Maine 59-14. Current number is 35.5/60.5 although it did drop to 34.5 shortly after open but came back up. Figures to be a game Oklahoma does what they want if they are indeed better....Michigan is on deck

Albany at Iowa. Line has gone from 33.5 to current 37.5. Albany's QB who closed 2024 with 3 starts was injured in spring. As such in the FCS, I didn't know that, nobody who talks and previews FCS online or podcasts knew that. Maybe it just came out this week, I read it from a fan on a message board and it was about that time the line went from 35.5 to 37.5. It really didn't matter who was going to be QB for Albany in this game, maybe they score once or something? Should be a nice game for Iowa, but tough to lay this high of a number.

SEMO at Arkansas State. Arkansas State won on the scoreboard vs Central Arkansas last year by virtue of a TD catch in the final seconds, but the receiver dropped the ball, replay still upheld the catch, TD and win although Sun Belt offices said the crew made a mistake and the pass should've been incomplete. UCA had some weapons last year, but they had previously not competed with Ark State the last few of the series (Ark St had won by 19 and 23 before struggling to get past them last year). Ark State also 'only' beat Stony Brook 31-7 in 2023, which is good if it were in 2024, but Stony Brook went 0-10 in '23. Maybe shouldn't take anything from that game, but I'm wondering if Ark State goes all in for the FCS games and they do have their first ever game vs Arkansas on deck. Ark State also looks to have some weakness at OL, DL and various points on D in general, which was bad last year anyway. SEMO is replacing a lot in certain spots as most teams are. Vs FBS they normally take on Power 4 teams, last year was their first game vs G5 in a while and they nearly beat NM State (SEMO led 16-10 4Q). SEMO loses the Big South/OVC O POY in multi-year starting QB DeLaurent. They are going with a tall JUCO out of California, which could lead to a learning curve in his first ever Dl game. I was previously worried they would go with the backup who started at the end of '23 due to DeLuarent's ssn ending injury and he showed then he is rather limited. The coaches must've known it too so they went out and got the JUCO Leatherwood. He's looked good with arm and touch and reads in practice so that is all we know right now. After throwing it anywher from 40-85 times per game last year, they have a new OC and will have a new commitment to running the ball. RB Brown showed early in the season he was capable, but they just let DeLaurent rip it every game instead. So should have some capable RBs, good couple WRs. OL has 3 starters back, adding a couple pieces. Front 7 on D should be deep veteran good unit. Need to replace several starters on the secondary and supposedly they are very happy with the replacements they brought in. Other than some customary unknown variables that come with a QB like this, the biggest concern might be Kicker after they saw their AA transfer to Ball State. This wasn't something where I had SEMO pegged as a strong team ready to pull an FBS upset, that would've been last year's SEMO team. But I think there are some projected good qualities here and some spots that Ark State might not be as good as they should be.

Nicholls at Troy. We will learn about Nicholls in week 0 and I posted some things on them in the week 0 thread. Expected they have a good D and they could have a very bad O if the QB situation doesn't pan out and it doesn't especially look good on paper. I am really not interested in trying to think how a game between them and Troy plays out. Under would be my knee jerk.

Morgan State at South Alabama. Mogan has had a good D for a few years now and they will again even though AA Elijah Williams is vying for a spot on the 53 man roster with the Vikings. Morgan is going to play D, they did a pretty good job on Ohio last year and that was without LB Hunter (inj) who is preseason MEAC D POY. They don't or haven't had much O. There is some buzz they may've found a QB in rFr Raymond Moore. But all that probably won't matter vs South Alabama. Morgan's track record on O says they can't be counted on to score much. Assuming South Alabama can overcome the Morgan D enough? I don't think I would have anything here.

North Dakota at Kansas State - The other half of the Ireland follow up with Kansas State. North Dakota is going through a coaching change, kept the OC/QB coach and their OL and DB coaches. The change at HC is welcomed as they replace a respected long time coach, but one that maybe things got stale and out dated. Schmidt is a former player and has been DC at San Diego State. This hire and what they are doing with recruiting is going to pay dividends, but it is probably too early to count on that here. They are still figuring out how the pieces they have fit the puzzle and frankly they need more that are missing currently, especially DL. The strength of the team is probably their OL, not like they would have an advantage vs K St there, but atleast they will be less outmatched than most FCS teams might be. Probably the only way this is a game if there is some kind of post-Ireland hangover from K State and Schmidt and company are able to cook up one hell of game plan. Because it is only with rare exception, when K St plays an FCS it is ugly and some of the K ST wins vs FCS have been vs good programs and they still crushed them. UND O isn't likely to put up many points here. This line also has been out a couple weeks. 28.5/56.5 no movement at all.

Charleston Southern at Vanderbilt. CSO was actually not that bad on D last year in their league, I expect that to change which means if they get worse then it gets even easier for Vandy. And while I do think CSO O stands to improve this year vs their league opponents for a couple reasons, it won't matter here. Should be a big win for 'Dores. FSU was leading CSO 41-0 last before that one went final at 41-7 with a TD in the final minute to avoid the shutout. Last 4 years CSO has played a P4 FBS team and lost by an average of 46 ppg.

 

[steponaduck]

I fully expect Air Force to look like the team we saw the last four weeks of last season, rather than the first eight games

Bucknell having to go to elevation, with all of that that they lost, I think Air Force puts it on them hard

 

[steponaduck]

Yeah it was 39.5 yesterday and I noted in my thread that I considered it but 37.5 was my go number so even though I knew it was gonna cross 42, I want to stick to the plan as I could see 42-3 or 38-0 get in and out type game which is why I put my ceiling at 37.5. With that said, 56-0 also easily possible.

That was me guys.

 

[steponaduck]

Texas tech will open -54.5 and the score will be 56-0 at half, they will shorten the 2H to 10 minute quarters and All bets will be voided

 

[s--k]

I fully expect Air Force to look like the team we saw the last four weeks of last season, rather than the first eight games

Bucknell having to go to elevation, with all of that that they lost, I think Air Force puts it on them hard

Yes, AF should have their way with the Bucknell D. Figure Bucknell O good for 13-17 pts, you?

 

[steponaduck]

Yes, AF should have their way with the Bucknell D. Figure Bucknell O good for 13-17 pts, you?

Maybe so, we saw navy rotate a ton of their second platoon last year very early in the second half, I’m not sure we see Air Force handle it the same way

And was playing at elevation, something Bucknell never does, I could see this going really really bad badly in the second half

 

[s--k]

Austin Peay at MTSU. Just a weird thing, last year Tenn Tech played at MTSU week 1 and then at Georgia week 2. This year Austin Peay will play at MTSU and at Georgia weeks 1 and 2. Odd. Anyway...TennTech nearly pulled the upset in Murfreesboro last year. MTSU actually led 21-0, but they trailed 24-25 with 1min to go, they went the length of the field for the go-ahead TD with :16 left. MTSU was all new last year, as was AP after going to the playoffs in '23 under Walden. Year 2 for both programs now. AP might be a little underrated offensively with Smith at QB, although his supporting cast is not strong to go up against what should be an imporving MTSU D. The D for AP was about middle tier FCS average last year and to the extent they had decent players on D, almost all of those guys are gone now. Lose top 9 tkl'rs and only return 5 of top 19. They have 48 transfers and could improve over the course of the year but wouldn't guess it shows up here. If it were not for all this newness on the AP D I might be concerned by this MTSU O which didn't score more than 24 in any FBS game last year and with 59+ minutes to go vs an FCS team they only had 24. If it's a small line I could side with MTSU, last year they were -24.5 vs TT.

North Alabama at WKU. UNA QB Smith actually had a decent season within the UAC, #2 pass eff QB and was team's #2 rusher. They got hot and averaged 472 ypg over their final 4 games, they actually outgained their final 6 opponents, but only won half of those. Bad news is Smith is gone. Patu from Stanford started the first 3 until injury. He struggled vs SEMO and Memphis, was having a good game vs Illinois State when injured (every QB had good passing game vs Illinois State). Smith stepped in for the rest of the season and had a memorable statistical season to end his career. Now it's only Patu, or they have Wade from UK/Colo in here now, who knows if he is good, or some other unknown young QB. Will have to see how Patu looks in year 2 here, they don't have especially good receiving options (top 4 gone) and only added a mostly KO ret guy from BG. D only returns 7 of top 22 tkl'rs and while their interior DL should be pretty good vs FCS level or poor offensive lines, the rest of the D will have unproven transfers coming in. Memphis beat them 40-0 last year in week 2. FSU beat them by 45 in the game Jordan Travis got hurt...and while this team is much better than the still transitioning Dll team of 2022, Memphis beat them 59-0 that year. I think there is some pressure on Dearmon here in year 3 as the team really has only won 3 games each his first 2 years and they find ways to lose games when maybe they shouldn't. There are a lot of new coaches this year. There is some familiarity for both as new WKU QB and OC/QB Coach were at ACU who UNA plays in the UAC and McIvor did have his worst statistical game vs them last year which is odd maybe. The other thing that might give me pause is the lines of scrimmage look to be the weakest part of WKU's team and UNA DL is the best part of their D. Would have to assume WKU runs away with it, just a lot of newness for WKU, they do play week 0 to get some things worked out.

Long Island at Florida. LIU started 0-6 last year, but were better than most would think in NEC play. Have Greenwood at QB who is great all around athlete and still have former starter to backup before Greenwood took the job. That's about it for the O because they lose a pretty good WR in Love who was getting a rookie free agent try and a RB to the CFL and saw 4 OL transfer to FBS (1 Big Tern 3 lower level G5)! The biggest concern for LIU is that Greenwood gets out of this game without injury. The LIU D while might compete vs their league peers ok, is going to be run and thrown over here easily. Of note starting Safety Todd Bowles Jr is the son of Tampa Bay head coach. This line is going to be high somewhere in the 40s. TCU won 45-0 with a 425-127 ttl yard edge vs them last year. They were 46.5 pt favs.

Southeastern Louisiana at LaTech. A sloppy LaTech struggled to put away a weak Nicholls team last year, was just 15-10 HT and ultimately 25-17 (-6.5). I could assume LT will be better this year, the O hasn't lived up to expectations the Cumbie hire brought with it I must assume. SLU is an interesting team this year. Scelfo has had some great teams (when they had a great QB Cole Kelly), and good teams even when they haven't had great QB. QB has been an issue the last few years and the O got pretty bad last year. They hope that veteran Carson Camp can turn that around. Camp was 2021 MVFC Newcomer of the year at USD, but was injured in '22 and hasn't played much since then. He transferred to Sac St in '23 but only played 4 and was injured again and missed '24. Can he regain his form here? They lose more than they bring back at WR/TE, but have a couple proven options there in Domingeaux and Collier, but brought in 7 WR transfers including Prejean from SDSU who is decent and have Prean who RS at LSU '23 before going to Tulane last year without havingan impact. But there's a bunch of guys here trying to step in. After losing their top 2 RBs they are hoping Henry who transfers in from Valdosta and had good numbers before at Colgate could be a guy. And the #3 guy plus a JUCO are in the mix. OL should be good with 8 of the top 10 from final depth chart back with 3 full time starters back plus two veterans that have spot started. Lost 2 All SLC DEs, but the replacements stepping in are looked highly upon (Briggs and Randall had 8.5 TFLs and 6 sacks combined as reserves last year - top 2 DEs gone had 7.5 sacks) and the interior should be good still with Proctor being All SLC along with vets Bradley and Anderson there as well. LB is a strength with 8 of 9 back. Half the top DBs are back, 2 of top 3 CBs return. Big addition is having Conerly-Goodley back again who was 1st Tm '23 and led with 109 tkl before transferring to Troy last year where he started 11 there. Another Troy transfer was 2x All Conf at JUCO prior to that. 3 of the top 6 tkl'rs back (one at each level of the D) and 8 of the top 16 overall along with a return of a couple All SLC guys. The Conerly-Goodley return is big. It was an upper half SLC D, but a lower half O. Some people I'm sure have a better idea what LaTech is going to be, but I really don't. SLU has not competed well vs any FBS since 2021 when they only lost 42-45 at LaTech. Since then SLU has gone 1-5 ATS vs FBS with a 17 and 18 pt loss their closest games. Doesn't boost confidence. Camp needs to elevate the O and D needs to be as good and better than last year. Both could happen and I am taking a chance on them here.

UAPB at Texas Tech. PB had some good players last year, QB Hagans, AA WR Gibson (transfer to Oklahoma), #1 tkl'r Kelly. Doesnt' matter they are all gone. HC Hampton said at SWAC media day they are going to play as many guys in this game as they can to see what they have. This game is going to be ugly. Steponduck says line will be 50 something and they'll be covering at HT. I have no reason to doubt that possibility. Arkansas led 49-0 HT on them last year (final 70-0). A good but underachieving Central Arkansas led at PB 35-10 HT and won 56-17 last year. Even Alabama A&M beat them 52-24. TT will surely score similarly and won't yield much on D.

Portland State at BYU - Portland State gets blown out often and this year they will be without the talented veteran Chachere (77 TDs rushing and passing over 32 career starts here). Nobody knows who PSU's QB will be this year, but a big downgrade is in order. PSU was about an average 30-ish O with him, without? The D is never good for PSU. Wazzou led 49-7 HT last year in the 56-14 win. Chattanooga scored 45 on PSU last year, UTC avg just 25.6 in their other 9 FCS games. Vs FCS the last 5 seaons, BYU has beat SIU 41-13 (SIU much better than PSU), SUU 41-16 (SUU much better than PSU), Dixie State/Utah Tech 52-26, Idaho State 59-14, and NAU 66-14. Without knowing anything about BYU's 2025 team I can assume they will hammer a bad FCS team in similar fashion they have done so vs others.

 

[s--k]

Abilene Christian at Tulsa. Will copy from carolinablue's thread. Wanted to circle back and talk more about this game because it looks like Tulsa might be fairly rough also. And Tulsa doesn't have a great ATS record vs FCS, such as 2021 opening day loss vs UC Davis. You all will know about Tulsa's weaknesses more than I will.

ACU loses a 3yr starting QB with over 8000y passing who transferred to WKU. Their OC/QB coach went there too. They lose their top 2 WRs, but do return a decent supporting cast if they can get 1-2 go-to guys to emerge or some unhearded transfers to play that role. Lose a really key RB who not only ran for 1300y, but also caught 45 passes. They do have some good adds here in the portal. The OL loses all 5 full time starters, a 2 game starter and a top reserve who played 28 career games (140+ career starts gone). 7 OL were added in the portal, all of which have only been career reserves or haven't played much at all. So there is a lot they need to put together here.

The QB position might've been answered with Stone Earle who started some games here back in 2020-21 before he tried his hand at North Texas and Marshall. He started the first 5 games at Marshall last year. And now he comes back here. He is a guy who will run, McIvor wasn't that type. They also have last year's backup who started the round 1 playoff game, only threw 6 incompletions in that one, but 3 were INTs. I assume Earl is the guy. All the other holes to fill, who knows. The OL obviously being a big concern.

The D should be in better shape, just need to fill the interior of the DL which suffered some big losses - both their DT and NG transferred up to P4. It's portal again to guys at lower level FBS (Rausaw from NTex) or guys that haven't played much. Everywhere else the D is in good shape. DE and rush LB are back, top LB from '24 back and top LB from '23 who missed '24 back. Then 7 of top 8 DBs are back plus they added a bunch new DBs in the portal.

Earle has played enough football to make this O work, it's just what he is working with and what is blocking for it. It was an average UAC D, but they weren't bad or anything. They did hold NDSU to to just 3.3 ypc on the ground and 1 of 10 3rd down and their RZ D only allowed 2 TDs on 6 trips by the Bison. Their run D and 3rd down D in the second half of the season were just as key as their O enroute to conference championship.

So ACU could be good enough here vs Tulsa because Tulsa is going to have some vulnerabilities. Tre Lamb has been a strong HC at the FCS. He took 24 of his players from Gardner Webb to ETSU last year. I think he only has maybe 3 of his former players on the Tulsa team now. So not like he's working with players that know the system like he had last year at ETSU.

What is this line going to be? Perception is an FCS 2nd round playoff team vs a bad FBS team. Team that was a 2pt conversion away from beating Texas Tech last year. Massey has 3.5, that's pretty low if that ends up being the number.

Lamar at North Texas. Lamar off back-to-back winning seasons under 3rd year HC Rossomando. QB Coleman entered the portal after spring, but returned for a big boost to their continued improvement. He will enter his 3rd season starting here. He’s good to have, but not great passing (51.8% 15-8 ratio), was the team’s #2 rusher (263-3.2-6TD). The #1 TD WR is gone (led with 6), but #2 Fuselier had similar numbers otherwise and was 2nd Tm SLC. #3 Jones is back and #4 TE Gibbs (17-163-4) played through injury last year still earning 2nd Tm SLC. Added a couple guys in the portal who contributed at Dll and Dll and an unknown from WF. #1 rusher in SLC is gone at RB, but they have a solid #2 and #3 back and added a depth guy from Illinois State. Probably a committee approach this year vs last year. The best aspect of the team is the OL that has 4 starters back and 70 career starts among them. Return 2 of their 3 All SLC guys, one of which was a Fr AA. A couple experienced reserves are available. OL gave up 7 sacks in the opener vs TxSt, but then only gave up 18 in their other 11 games. 6 of 8 back on the DL and add an HCU contributor Huff, but LB and DB takes some hits with 8 of top 13 at those spots gone. Faulkner (54 tkl) and Canady (5.5 TFL) would be the top 2 LBs back. Lose the #1 tkl’r at S, but return the #2 and 3 overall tk’rs in Pugh (2nd Tm 7 PBU) and Hamrick (5 PBU). A couple reserves need to step up or transfers step in the rest of the secondary. Lamar appears to have played Texas State well week 1 last year. Txst only led 18-0 HT and only won 34-27. A closer look shows TxSt outgained them 486-288 (6.0-4.6), but the Bobcats fumbled at the L13, SOD at L03 threw an INT from the L30 and kicked 3 FGs from inside the L30 (missed 1). Just 1 TD on 3 RZ trips. So that is how that game went. It should be noted that RZ D was key in a few of their games. They held UIW to just 2 TDs on 7 RZ trips to keep that game within reach early and a late game 4th down stop at their 1 vs Weber was crucial in that win. I think Lamar is a solid team, good at LOS with a kind of pedestrian type offense. First 5 totals last year went Under. Unless they force NTex into some of the same issues TxSt had and Lamar owns time of possession I wouldn’t think they can keep up scoring with a team like NTex. But I also do not think Lamar is an easy team to sell short at this point in their build with some of the experience they have. Not a game I’m likely to play either way unless the spread entices me.

Bryant at New Mexico State. 2-10 last year for Bryant but you could see them improve in the final 1/3 of the season the more they played better competition (for them CAA ’24 vs Big South/OVC ’23) and the more Fr QB Myer played. They outgained Stony Brook and lost by 1 in OT as 10pt dog. They outgained W&M and only lost 12-22 as a 20 pt dog and in the finale they led URI 14-13 at HT and then URI asserted themselves in the 2H for a 14 pt win. Just a stark difference from their first 3 FCS games (lost by 24.3) to their last 4 (lost by 9.25). They lose a lot at WR which could stunt the growth of Myer early in year 2, but the OL should be getting better. They have a couple players on D, but still figure to struggle on that side of the ball. They were a good auto fade the first half of the year 1-6 ATS, but went 3-1 ATS in their final 4 with the one spread loss coming by just 1.5 pts. I’m not going to assume they start this year as well as they finished last year however and Fife is QB at NM State which should boost their O. The spread came out and remains unchanged at 19.5 and total went from 52.5 to 53.5.

East Texas A&M at SMU. ET was held below 200y of O twice in their first 4 games last year (San Diego St and Sac State), but then they surprising put up 448 (5.7ypp) in game #2 at UC Davis. It was that kind of year for this team. They were held below 300y of total O 6x, but then would have 399 (5.6) against SFA. Just a really inconsistent and mistake prone team (7 games with 3+ turnovers lost). So I’m not sure what their O can or will do here, they do return their QB Peace (16-14 ratio) and have a few familiar targets to throw to. But the D is going to be a big problem here. UIW gained 6.0 ypp on them, but some lesser Os really did some damage, like HCU 6.5ypp for 425y and 40 pts, McNeese 6.3ypp for 427y and 31 pts, Prairie View of all teams (what they were last year not what they can be this year), PV gained 7.7ypp for 395 and 34 pts. PV’s best offensive game vs teams not named Northwestern State. I think we get the point…teams that aren’t even consistently good on O did damage vs this D and got big plays. SMU will feast as well. Spread will be incredibly high, but maybe Over is best as SMU could get near or surpass the total alone and ET might be able to contribute a little towards it as well.

Idaho at Washington State. This could be a really good game between two close proximity teams with a lot of unknowns. Eck elevated a bad Idaho program to 3 straight playoff appearances and then left for New Mexico. They brought in a guy who was on Eck’s staff in 2021-22, Thomas Ford, and Matt Lineham is the new OC, he was recently on this staff 2022-23. The DC was Missouri St LB coach, but was previously DC at LV 2019-21. He did gameplan vs SDSU last year at Missouri State - not with much success, but he knows first hand some of how they operated there. Many of known name players are gone, but not all and the recruiting and development also improved under the last coaching staff so those former role players will now be thrust into the starting lineup. It is believed the O could be actually better than it was last year, partially due to injuries and 2s and 3s playing at QB, but also because who the QB is this year, Joshua Wood from Fresno who was used situationally there last year, but he started the bowl and has given a lot of enthusiasm for what he might do here leading the O. And the OL is good, plenty of experience back there, the RBs are all back. They will need to figure out WR, but they lost some great WRs from the ’23 team and simply reloaded with some new great WRs to lead the ’24 team. Will see if they can do that again. It is a bigger challenge how the D shapes up as the biggest losses occurred there. They have 2 significant contributors back at DL and 1 at LB and transfers are expected to have an immediate impact to fill in the spots. Secondary is a major rebuild which will almost exclusively be made up of transfers or young unproven players. Washington State has a ton of new players (70?) and coaching staff as well, but one would assume it could be better off the bat for them as some of the transfers followed SDSU HC Rogers, especially on D (he was their DC before promoted to HC). I counted 9 total; 5 significant contributors from SDSU D that transferred over (1 NT, 4 in the back 7) plus 4 lesser reserve types. The DL looks like the biggest issue and it was bad against the run last year. OL and run game would be Idaho’s strength. Will be pretty interesting to see what Wazzou does on O as they still have Levi Eckaus a gun slinger from Bryant who transferred here in 2024, but sat the bench until the bowl game. This is not a Portland State/Northern Colorado type FCS game for Wazzou who they normally play and blow out. A different Idaho played here in 2022 in Cam Ward’s first ever FBS game and Vandals nearly stole a win. That Idaho team was led by eventual Jerry Rice winner (best FCS Freshman) Gevani McCoy and people are hoping that Wood can have that kind of season. Really intriguing game on multiple fronts and should be a good one. As for spread, it opened at 12.5, dropped to 9.5 were it had been for several days and now is back up at 10.5. The total is unchanged at 50.5. Not sure how I feel about an Over, but I kind of like it if Wood and Eckhaus are effective then there should be points and the Os could be better than either D, but if both teams lean into the run game to find their way then maybe not. Could see Idaho making it a game or even winning. The last 3 years Idaho has lost by an average of 11ppg vs P4 FBS teams and they beat Wyoming; not much carries over from those except maybe a mentality within the program that they can play in those games.

Northern Arizona at Arizona State. NAU from 5-6 to 8-5 and a playoff birth. Very impressive year 1 job from Wright and his staff. Looking at his track record as HC Pittsburgh State suggests it was no fluke and he has coordinated several good offenses at the midmajor FBS level also at successful FCS programs. Some slight improvement in the O PPG and O YPG, O YPP overall, but inside the numbers reveals actually they gave up 10 more sacks and 24 more TFLs (it was 13 games vs 11 still gave up the most sacks per game in Big Sky 2.07pg). The bigger change was 6 fewer turnovers lost and 5 more gained on D. The D made some drastic improvements from allowing 30.9 ppg in ’23 to 18.8 in ’24. Best 3rd down D in Big Sky and 13th nationally (32%). Pass eff D went from mid-pack Big Sky to #1 (21st nationally). What they didn’t do is beat a team with a winning record last year. They beat everyone who was worse than them and went 0-3 vs playoff teams (0-4 if you actually count the playoff game as well). 2-1 ATS regular season as dogs in all those and should’ve could’ve would’ve covered vs UIW in a weird game – outgained UIW by 27y yet lost by 24. And they played at Montana tough with their backup QB when Pennington was inj. So despite not beating any ‘good teams’ they were competitive against them. That was until the shocking 24-0 loss at ACU in round 1 of the playoffs as a small road fav (outgained by 280y!). Pennington is back and is a good runner and a very efficient passer. The running game is ok, RBs are back, but really padded stats against the worst teams to boost the overall ypg numbers. 3 OL starters back, but lose a 2nd Tm Center. To hopefully improve, they are adding a 2nd Tm starting C from Weber and a 2nd Tm starting UAC OL from SUU along with a couple other less experienced transfers. WR and TE groups are a little underwhelming and they lose arguably their best, a 1st Tm TE who led in yards with just 42-578-4. A couple WRS back, a couple gone. The D was big for them last year and the DL and LB units should be about the same, but big losses in the secondary and the play of the secondary was so key for them. 7 of the top 10 gone and they added a bunch of transfers. How that group comes together will be big. To say I don’t know about Arizona State would be an understatement. I distracted watched one of their games last year, the Texas playoff game and the only player I can name on their team isn’t there anymore, the RB. So I’m not so ready to play this game. Spread opened 28.5/52.5 2 weeks ago and that is still what it is. I don’t know if the NAU O has grown enough to move it and score with any consistency on a presumed good FBS D. They didn’t play UC Davis or Montana State last year, so we didn’t see their O vs a really good D and they struggled vs Arizona on O in week 2 last year (just 10 pts and 198 ttly 3.5 ypp). Alot happened from week 2 '24 until now, but how they ended the season gives pause to them hanging here as well (0 pts 194 ttly 3.5 ypp). A lot of people are high on this team and think they are playoff caliber again, I need to see them beat somebody good first.

 

[s--k]

Sagarin Power Rating lines. Note, totals are not accurate.

Aug28Thursday


@ Bowling Green 19.70 19.70 19.70 19.70 19.70 Lafayette 748 88% 52.12

@ Duke 28.71 28.71 28.71 28.71 28.71 Elon 1582 94% 52.12

@ Houston 20.61 20.61 20.61 20.61 20.61 Stephen F. Austin 811 89% 52.12

@ LouisianaMonroe(ULM) 20.14 20.14 20.14 20.14 20.14 Saint Francis-Pa. 778 89% 52.12

@ Missouri 34.99 34.99 34.99 34.99 34.99 Central Arkansas 2407 96% 52.12

@ Oklahoma State 14.23 14.23 14.23 14.23 14.23 Tennessee-Martin 449 82% 52.12

@ San Diego State 15.91 15.91 15.91 15.91 15.91 Stony Brook 527 84% 52.12

@ UAB 12.59 12.59 12.59 12.59 12.59 Alabama State 383 79% 52.12

@ Delaware 24.49 24.49 24.49 24.49 24.49 Delaware State 1134 92% 52.12

@ Eastern Illinois 6.40 6.40 6.40 6.40 6.40 Dayton 204 67% 52.12

Towson 7.27 7.27 7.27 7.27 7.27 @ Norfolk State 224 69% 52.12

Alcorn State 5.38 5.38 5.38 5.38 5.38 @ Northwestern State 183 65% 52.12

@ St. Thomas-Mn. 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52 Lindenwood 133 57% 52.12

@ Samford 11.78 11.78 11.78 11.78 11.78 West Georgia 354 78% 52.12

@ Youngstown State 19.11 19.11 19.11 19.11 19.11 Mercyhurst 709 88% 52.12


Aug29Friday

@ Army West Point 17.94 17.94 17.94 17.94 17.94 Tarleton State 637 86% 52.12

@ Fla. International 18.49 18.49 18.49 18.49 18.49 Bethune-Cookman 670 87% 52.12

@ Illinois 42.75 42.75 42.75 42.75 42.75 Western Illinois 3526 97% 52.12

@ Kansas 42.50 42.50 42.50 42.50 42.50 Wagner 3490 97% 52.12

Monmouth-NJ 10.01 10.01 10.01 10.01 10.01 @ Colgate 297 75% 52.12

New Haven 5.62 5.62 5.62 5.62 5.62 @ Marist 188 65% 52.12

@ Rhode Island 9.93 9.93 9.93 9.93 9.93 Campbell 294 75% 52.12


Aug30Saturday

@ Air Force 26.65 26.65 26.65 26.65 26.65 Bucknell 1350 93% 52.12

@ Arizona State 31.74 31.74 31.74 31.74 31.74 Northern Arizona 1961 95% 52.12

@ Arkansas 42.80 42.80 42.80 42.80 42.80 Alabama A&M 3533 97% 52.12

@ Arkansas State 13.05 13.05 13.05 13.05 13.05 SE Missouri State 401 80% 52.12

@ Boston College 36.06 36.06 36.06 36.06 36.06 Fordham 2560 96% 52.12

@ BYU 26.98 26.98 26.98 26.98 26.98 Portland State 1386 93% 52.12

@ Connecticut 28.37 28.37 28.37 28.37 28.37 Central Connecticut 1543 94% 52.12

@ Florida 56.76 56.76 56.76 56.76 56.76 LIU Post 5351 98% 52.12

@ Iowa 36.73 36.73 36.73 36.73 36.73 Albany-NY 2656 96% 52.12

@ Iowa State 17.50 17.50 17.50 17.50 17.50 South Dakota 612 86% 52.12

@ James Madison 18.36 18.36 18.36 18.36 18.36 Weber State 662 87% 52.12

@ Kansas State 27.63 27.63 27.63 27.63 27.63 North Dakota 1458 94% 52.12

Merrimack 3.12 3.12 3.12 3.12 3.12 @ Kent State 143 59% 52.12

@ Liberty 24.01 24.01 24.01 24.01 24.01 Maine 1089 92% 52.12

@ Louisiana Tech 5.23 5.23 5.23 5.23 5.23 SE Louisiana 180 64% 52.12

@ Louisville 39.59 39.59 39.59 39.59 39.59 Eastern Kentucky 3070 97% 52.12

@ Memphis 19.67 19.67 19.67 19.67 19.67 Chattanooga 746 88% 52.12

@ Middle Tennessee 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 Austin Peay 121 55% 52.12

@ Navy 35.70 35.70 35.70 35.70 35.70 VMI 2507 96% 52.12

@ New Mexico State 9.92 9.92 9.92 9.92 9.92 Bryant 294 75% 52.12

@ North Texas 19.42 19.42 19.42 19.42 19.42 Lamar 729 88% 52.12

@ Northern Illinois 8.95 8.95 8.95 8.95 8.95 Holy Cross 266 73% 52.12

@ Oklahoma 34.10 34.10 34.10 34.10 34.10 Illinois State 2282 96% 52.12

@ Oregon 33.56 33.56 33.56 33.56 33.56 Montana State 2207 96% 52.12

@ Pittsburgh 36.82 36.82 36.82 36.82 36.82 Duquesne 2668 96% 52.12

@ South Alabama 30.17 30.17 30.17 30.17 30.17 Morgan State 1759 95% 52.12

@ SMU 47.41 47.41 47.41 47.41 47.41 East Texas A&M 4172 98% 52.12

@ Texas Tech 49.66 49.66 49.66 49.66 49.66 Ark.-Pine Bluff 4470 98% 52.12

@ Troy 14.87 14.87 14.87 14.87 14.87 Nicholls State 478 83% 52.12

Abilene Christian 2.69 2.69 2.69 2.69 2.69 @ Tulsa 136 58% 52.12

@ Vanderbilt 41.93 41.93 41.93 41.93 41.93 Charleston Southern 3409 97% 52.12

@ Washington State 8.83 8.83 8.83 8.83 8.83 Idaho 263 72% 52.12

@ West Virginia 34.24 34.24 34.24 34.24 34.24 Robert Morris 2301 96% 52.12

@ Western Kentucky 19.08 19.08 19.08 19.08 19.08 North Alabama 707 88% 52.12

North Dakota State 30.08 30.08 30.08 30.08 30.08 @ The Citadel 1749 95% 52.12

@ Davidson 6.73 6.73 6.73 6.73 6.73 Georgetown 211 68% 52.12

@ East Tennessee State 13.50 13.50 13.50 13.50 13.50 Murray State 419 81% 52.12

N @ Florida A&M 5.21 5.21 5.21 5.21 5.21 Howard 180 64% 52.12

@ Furman 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 William & Mary 101 50% 52.12

@ Incarnate Word 8.78 8.78 8.78 8.78 8.78 Eastern Washington 262 72% 52.12

@ Jackson State 14.38 14.38 14.38 14.38 14.38 Hampton 456 82% 52.12

Richmond 6.39 6.39 6.39 6.39 6.39 @ Lehigh 204 67% 52.12

@ Mercer 21.96 21.96 21.96 21.96 21.96 Presbyterian College 914 90% 52.12

Southern U. 10.95 10.95 10.95 10.95 10.95 @ Miss. Valley State 326 77% 52.12

@ NC Central 4.30 4.30 4.30 4.30 4.30 New Hampshire 163 62% 52.12

@ Northern Iowa 12.63 12.63 12.63 12.63 12.63 Butler 385 79% 52.12

@ Sacred Heart 7.78 7.78 7.78 7.78 7.78 Stonehill College 236 70% 52.12

@ San Diego 4.42 4.42 4.42 4.42 4.42 Cal Poly-SLO 165 62% 52.12

@ SC State 7.82 7.82 7.82 7.82 7.82 Wofford 237 70% 52.12

@ South Dakota State 25.44 25.44 25.44 25.44 25.44 Sacramento State 1226 92% 52.12

@ Southern Utah 10.95 10.95 10.95 10.95 10.95 Idaho State 326 77% 52.12

@ Tennessee State 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.90 NC A&T 265 73% 52.12

@ Texas Southern 2.80 2.80 2.80 2.80 2.80 Prairie View A&M 138 58% 52.12

UC Davis 17.27 17.27 17.27 17.27 17.27 @ Utah Tech 599 86% 52.12

@ Western Carolina 6.42 6.42 6.42 6.42 6.42 Gardner-Webb 205 67% 52.12

 

[KJ]

Homer fade alert

I will be on South Dakota in week 1 against the Clones

Will also be on UND against Purple Kansas

Fading the Ireland comeback, the trip there has been talked about for over a year, conference game, etc

 

[s--k]

Homer fade alert

I will be on South Dakota in week 1 against the Clones

Will also be on UND against Purple Kansas

Fading the Ireland comeback, the trip there has been talked about for over a year, conference game, etc

Makes sense from the ISU/K-State side of equation. Do you think the loser of the game might be effected more? The home opener still provides some decent juice to get up for.

I have thought about how the aftermath of the trip might impact their week 1 games. Are there any trends from the other teams that have returned him in their follow up game?

 

[KJ]

Makes sense from the ISU/K-State side of equation. Do you think the loser of the game might be effected more? The home opener still provides some decent juice to get up for.

I have thought about how the aftermath of the trip might impact their week 1 games. Are there any trends from the other teams that have returned him in their follow up game?

I'll look at some point this week. If anything I'm not sure if there's ever been a conference game played overseas. Way bigger deal for these two than say Notre Dame who is already a household name. ISU and KSU have had this on the calendar for a year. And conversely USD and UND have had those two teams on the calendar for a year.

 

[s--k]

I'll look at some point this week. If anything I'm not sure if there's ever been a conference game played overseas. Way bigger deal for these two than say Notre Dame who is already a household name. ISU and KSU have had this on the calendar for a year. And conversely USD and UND have had those two teams on the calendar for a year.

Think it probably means a lot of Bouman being a former Cyclone for 2 years. Never played, still I would think it’s important for him to make a good impression. Like a former girlfriend you see out, like ‘hey see what you missed out on’. That said me personally I’m not onboard yet, but I can second the intangible reasons you state.

 

[s--k]

Leave it to me to go to the bottom, but pretty intrigued by Stonehill at Sacred Heart for the dog. Some of these lines projecting that SHU 7.5 or 10.5 pt fav?

Stonehill beat them last year 35-21 as 6.5 pt home dog. Ran for 350+ on them. Had a great offensive game. SHU only crossed midfield once in the 1H. SHU O has been really poor the last 2 years. They do bring their QB back who was a 109.45 ypg 55.6% passer with a season long 5-6 ratio (yes he played in every game too). SHU has had some very good RBs before, but they lose their top 2 (one transferred to North Dakota) and the leading rusher this year will likely be a guy who hasn't carried the ball for them before. Have a couple of receivers, but in this offense, not sure it matters. OL is the best quality they have going for them on O. Every starter could be a grad Sr who started last year. Bascially the same OL they had last year minus 1 guy. 8 of SHU's top 18 tkl'rs are back, but they lose their top 5 producing DL (lose 27 of the unit's 31 TFLs and return 0 of the DL's 15 sacks). LB and S probably decent, CB, return just 1 of 3 who played.

Stonehill returns a ton. "Yeah but they were awful". That may be true, but both RBs who went over 100y on SHU last year are back. They played 3 different QBs trying to figure out which one is the guy, so they went through that last year so they don't have to this year (probably will be O'Connell started the middle 4gm, Easton started the final 2). 6 of 8 receivers back. 9 different OL started and 6 return. A couple of the starters last year were thrown in young. 9 of top 10 tklrs back at DL, 10 of 10 LBs back. 3 of top 4 back at S and 2 of top 3 back at CB with Siede being 2nd Tm NEC CB. LB Battaglia, DLs Athy and PJ Willams and DB Irvin have All NEC potential this year.

Stonehill was 5-5 in 2023 with a top 3/4 NEC O and a mid/lower NEC D and last year it was just the worst of everything as they had to replace a lot especially good players at RB and WR and on D. Not sure about the talen they have at the skill positions on O compared to '23, but at least these guys now have played as opposed to going into '24. And a bad D with the same players back, is it going to be bad again? Probably kind of bad, but they aren't playing a world beating O here and some players are expected to be among the NEC's best on that side of the ball.

The last 2 years that SHU has been down, Stonehill has actually beat them both years 22-19 in OT and 35-21 last year. Recognize that SHU does have a decent homefield for who they are and can surprise as a dog....still the last 2 seasons they have dropped their home opener, last year to Delaware State as 5.5pt fav and 2023 lost to Lafayette as 4.5pt fav (Laf ended up being awesome that year). SHU is 2-6 ATS as fav the last 2 years.

 

[carolinablue]

Leave it to me to go to the bottom, but pretty intrigued by Stonehill at Sacred Heart for the dog. Some of these lines projecting that SHU 7.5 or 10.5 pt fav?

Stonehill beat them last year 35-21 as 6.5 pt home dog. Ran for 350+ on them. Had a great offensive game. SHU only crossed midfield once in the 1H. SHU O has been really poor the last 2 years. They do bring their QB back who was a 109.45 ypg 55.6% passer with a season long 5-6 ratio (yes he played in every game too). SHU has had some very good RBs before, but they lose their top 2 (one transferred to North Dakota) and the leading rusher this year will likely be a guy who hasn't carried the ball for them before. Have a couple of receivers, but in this offense, not sure it matters. OL is the best quality they have going for them on O. Every starter could be a grad Sr who started last year. Bascially the same OL they had last year minus 1 guy. 8 of SHU's top 18 tkl'rs are back, but they lose their top 5 producing DL (lose 27 of the unit's 31 TFLs and return 0 of the DL's 15 sacks). LB and S probably decent, CB, return just 1 of 3 who played.

Stonehill returns a ton. "Yeah but they were awful". That may be true, but both RBs who went over 100y on SHU last year are back. They played 3 different QBs trying to figure out which one is the guy, so they went through that last year so they don't have to this year (probably will be O'Connell started the middle 4gm, Easton started the final 2). 6 of 8 receivers back. 9 different OL started and 6 return. A couple of the starters last year were thrown in young. 9 of top 10 tklrs back at DL, 10 of 10 LBs back. 3 of top 4 back at S and 2 of top 3 back at CB with Siede being 2nd Tm NEC CB. LB Battaglia, DLs Athy and PJ Willams and DB Irvin have All NEC potential this year.

Stonehill was 5-5 in 2023 with a top 3/4 NEC O and a mid/lower NEC D and last year it was just the worst of everything as they had to replace a lot especially good players at RB and WR and on D. Not sure about the talen they have at the skill positions on O compared to '23, but at least these guys now have played as opposed to going into '24. And a bad D with the same players back, is it going to be bad again? Probably kind of bad, but they aren't playing a world beating O here and some players are expected to be among the NEC's best on that side of the ball.

The last 2 years that SHU has been down, Stonehill has actually beat them both years 22-19 in OT and 35-21 last year. Recognize that SHU does have a decent homefield for who they are and can surprise as a dog....still the last 2 seasons they have dropped their home opener, last year to Delaware State as 5.5pt fav and 2023 lost to Lafayette as 4.5pt fav (Laf ended up being awesome that year). SHU is 2-6 ATS as fav the last 2 years.

Stonehill was a team I played a few times last year if I remember correctly, and if I can get 7.5 I will probably be in them in week 1. I am expecting a line closer to 3-4.5 though so we’ll see what happens. Love the fact we are talking this one, great stuff!

 

[s--k]

Scrolling through the games to see what else might've come out, saw these

 

[s--k]