Week #1 Discussion

[B.A.R.]

Never too early to start handicapping College Football! This year more than ever preparation in the off-season is key. Feel free to show updated numbers and totals as they post.

We're just over two months away from the return of CFB!


Thursday, August 29th


North Carolina
Minnesota -1.5

Coastal Carolina
Jacksonville St -5

North Dakota St
Colorado -8.5


Friday, August 30th

Temple
Oklahoma -39.5

TCU -11
Stanford


Saturday, August 31th


Western Michigan
Wisconsin -23

Florida International
Indiana -18.5

Kent St
Pittsburgh -23

Uconn
Maryland -24.5

Kennesaw State
UTSA -21.5

Clemson
Georgia -13

Eastern Michigan
Umass -1

Ohio
Syracuse -14.5

Georgia St
Georgia Tech -20.5

Old Dominion
South Carolina -17

James Madison -10
Charlotte

Penn State -9.5
West Virginia

Boise State -10.5
Ga Southern

Southern Miss
Kentucky -25

Florida Atlantic
Michigan State -11

Akron
Ohio State -50.5

New Mexico
Arizona -30

Wyoming
Arizona State -7

Miami FL -3.5
Florida

Colorado State
Texas -36.5

UTEP
Texas -28

Miami OH
Northwestern -3

North Texas
South Alabama -6.5

Nevada
Troy -15.5

Va Tech -13.5
Vanderbilt

Sam Houston State
Rice -12

UCLA -17
Hawaii

Western Kentucky
Alabama

Fresno State
Michigan -20.5

Notre Dame
Texas AM -1


Sunday, September 1st


LSU -6.5
USC


Monday, September 2nd


Boston College
Florida State -21

 

[twinkie13]

How bad is Kennesaw St? I know who I need, tag him

 

[PappyOSU]

For Ohio State -50.5 vs. Akron.. since 2003 teams favored by 50+ points are 43-29 ATS (60%).

I have to dig more to see if any of this trend's record includes week 1 matchups after replacing their starting QB from the prior year... On the surface however history favors the Buckeyes from this perspective

 

[KJ]

We're entering new territory with the new shitty playoff system, every week isn't make or break like it has always been in the past. Still going to play situational angles per usual, curious how trends play out going forward. Easy to say everyone will be 100% focused on winning every game but now it simply won't be as vital.

 

[PappyOSU]

Agreed. Cant help but think some of the more historical trend qualifiers are going to go by the wayside.

Feels like it would be smart in certain situations to slightly devalue favorites who are fat and happy, and add some value to underdog mentality who still have their dream alive of being that conference champ or group of 5 entry into the show.

 

[KJ]

Agreed. Cant help but think some of the more historical trend qualifiers are going to go by the wayside.

Feels like it would be smart in certain situations to slightly devalue favorites who are fat and happy, and add some value to underdog mentality who still have their dream alive of being that conference champ or group of 5 entry into the show.

Or even dogs in certain spots early who see the path to bowl eligibility as more possible against vulnerable opponent (moreso against tier 2 and tier 3 type P5 teams, not really so much against the elite)

 

[B.A.R.]

Agreed. Cant help but think some of the more historical trend qualifiers are going to go by the wayside.

Feels like it would be smart in certain situations to slightly devalue favorites who are fat and happy, and add some value to underdog mentality who still have their dream alive of being that conference champ or group of 5 entry into the show.

Agreed.

Nice to see you Pappy starting the discussion early!

 

[s--k]

How bad is Kennesaw St? I know who I need, tag him

They were 3-0, 2-1 or 2-0-1 ATS as dogs last year depending on what your UTC line was. Kennesaw played better than I expected vs both UT Chattanooga and Furman and at the time I figured it was Kennesaw caring more about those old regional rivals as a last hoorah. Both were clearly superior (both were FCS playoffs) yet both left underwhelming games vs Kennesaw. That was about all for the owls, after that they had some really bad losses as favs vs some less meaningful teams and poor opponents in Tenn Tech, Char So and Tenn St. Played a bunch of Dll teams. Finished with a good showing vs Sam Houston. Theory was they were redshirting players for their debut FBS season, but I don't know what their 2024 team looks like nor do I know anything about who they will open with this season.

 

[bookieassassin]

wassup boys ........

Big school (BS) vs little school (LS)? - solid strategy is always this

1) Does the HC of the BS care about extending margins here, or does he treat this as a scrimmage pretty much?
>> quick snapshot is to check here

NCAAF Database: College Football Betting Data | Odds Shark

- eg. UTSA HC Traylor has been there since 2020- you can quickly see how he's done in September as a home favorite, and/or laying 20+

$ Coaches do NOT coach each game the same - players do not prepare for each game the same - so do NOT handicap as if they do.


2) WILL THE BS BE FOCUSED HERE?
>> mainly who do they play next? ......... Texas State then Texas

3) Does the LS go hard in these typically, or do they usually just pick up a check?
>> for KSU - tough to read here - were a tough out when they ran the option - now transitioning to the pistol still (2023) - LY lost to Sam Houston 21-24 - 2022 L to Cinn 10-63 - 2021 L 17-45 to Ga Tech

First year in FBS for Kennesaw, they should give a good effort here - UTSA seems to give up too many points in these games

 

[B.A.R.]

wassup boys ........

Big school (BS) vs little school (LS)? - solid strategy is always this

1) Does the HC of the BS care about extending margins here, or does he treat this as a scrimmage pretty much?
>> quick snapshot is to check here

NCAAF Database: College Football Betting Data | Odds Shark

- eg. UTSA HC Traylor has been there since 2020- you can quickly see how he's done in September as a home favorite, and/or laying 20+

$ Coaches do NOT coach each game the same - players do not prepare for each game the same - so do NOT handicap as if they do.


2) WILL THE BS BE FOCUSED HERE?
>> mainly who do they play next? ......... Texas State then Texas

3) Does the LS go hard in these typically, or do they usually just pick up a check?
>> for KSU - tough to read here - were a tough out when they ran the option - now transitioning to the pistol still (2023) - LY lost to Sam Houston 21-24 - 2022 L to Cinn 10-63 - 2021 L 17-45 to Ga Tech

First year in FBS for Kennesaw, they should give a good effort here - UTSA seems to give up too many points in these games

What a refreshing post!

 

[gps_3]

Guesses at total for LSU/USC? I'll have to see it to believe it that either team fixed their defensive issues. Should be a fun watch

UGA seems a little high. First game of the season, I see no reason why Clemson couldn't make this a game late in the 4th quarter

Should aTm be favored over Notre Dame?

I've done zero research so grain of salt with any of my comments

 

[B.A.R.]

Guesses at total for LSU/USC? I'll have to see it to believe it that either team fixed their defensive issues. Should be a fun watch

UGA seems a little high. First game of the season, I see no reason why Clemson couldn't make this a game late in the 4th quarter

Should aTm be favored over Notre Dame?

I've done zero research so grain of salt with any of my comments

Agree that Clemson number seems slightly high. 3rd year QB now, backdoor in play at worst.

That total would be higher later in the year. I'll say it opens 69.5 or so and is bet up to 73-74

That game is last October, we see 75 at open.

Just my quick hot take.

 

[carolinablue]

Agree that Clemson number seems slightly high. 3rd year QB now, backdoor in play at worst.

That total would be higher later in the year. I'll say it opens 69.5 or so and is bet up to 73-74

That game is last October, we see 75 at open.

Just my quick hot take.

Seeing 66.5….too early even for me as I don’t like tying my money up this early but definitely lean over as I expect it to be 70 by kickoff

 

[B.A.R.]

Some Circa #s with totals.

 

[steponaduck]

Seeing 66.5….too early even for me as I don’t like tying my money up this early but definitely lean over as I expect it to be 70 by kickoff

mate,

it wont be 70 by kick, i am assuming. The market is coming down on this one and the current total on LSU/USC is 62.5. It might not be as much about how the defenses were fixed up, as much as now much each offense lost. Im sure every square player in america will pound the over, and certainly all over vegas as well. but it has ticked down to 62.5

 

[carolinablue]

mate,

it wont be 70 by kick, i am assuming. The market is coming down on this one and the current total on LSU/USC is 62.5. It might not be as much about how the defenses were fixed up, as much as now much each offense lost. Im sure every square player in america will pound the over, and certainly all over vegas as well. but it has ticked down to 62.5

I tend to think that common everyday players put their stuff down day of for the most part, so I’m not surprised to see it come down two months out.

 

[carolinablue]

I tend to think that common everyday players put their stuff down day of for the most part, so I’m not surprised to see it come down two months out.

Forgot to mention, I will more than likely be on the over as I don’t pay attention to public, sharp, etc etc I just play what I play and let the chips fall where they may. Uh oh, that wasn’t bad!

 

[FadeTheHype]

Let's not forget the running clock on getting first downs, injuries that could happen between now and then, and of course the weather. That doesn't even include who will be the referee crew. Keep all of this in mind before betting totals or sides this far away.

 

[B.A.R.]

Let's not forget the running clock on getting first downs, injuries that could happen between now and then, and of course the weather. That doesn't even include who will be the referee crew. Keep all of this in mind before betting totals or sides this far away.

Absolutely.

Each year they shorten actual game time in order to add more advertising.

Just slowly killing the sport each and every year.

 

[FadeTheHype]

Absolutely.

Each year they shorten actual game time in order to add more advertising.

Just slowly killing the sport each and every year.

Not sure shortening the game means more advertising, but it probably means look for unders at the very least. Going on 4th down is way up. Doesn't mean squat when it fails 70% of the time.

 

[B.A.R.]

Not sure shortening the game means more advertising, but it probably means look for unders at the very least. Going on 4th down is way up. Doesn't mean squat when it fails 70% of the time.

Definitely more advertising (in a variety of ways).

The clock rules that have come into effect since 2007 in different ways are always to make games shorter. The amount of time actually saved is very little.

Think about an NFL game. There is approximately 11 mins of actual game action.

But, yes, unders are always to be looked at with these new rules. Then, you hope for some overcorrecting at some point to turn the tables.

 

[FadeTheHype]

Can't agree with ya man. No offense. Shortening the game means less advertising(less commercials) unless the halftime is extended. If each team can do 10 minute drives all game hypothetically, there is no more advertising than what was intended and more than likely less than intended. Not sure what you mean by 2007 being the new clock rules as I thought this started last season, unless there's something I missed.

 

[B.A.R.]

Can't agree with ya man. No offense. Shortening the game means less advertising(less commercials) unless the halftime is extended. If each team can do 10 minute drives all game hypothetically, there is no more advertising than what was intended and more than likely less than intended. Not sure what you mean by 2007 being the new clock rules as I thought this started last season, unless there's something I missed.

Sorry, we're going to disagree here.

I'll pull up some numbers from last year over the next few days....

Advertising increased slightly (not as much as thought, but a bit) with last year's changes.

2006-2008 (somewhere in this time frame) was when they started messing with the clock rules in CFB. Watch a game in the 90s or early 2000's and you'll understand the differences. I'll try and pull up the thread here where we were bemoaning the moves made.

Anyways, there have been many changes to CFB in general the past 16-18 years...and clock rules are the ones that drive many of us nuts...

What I'm saying above is that a noon kick is still finishing somewhere between 315-345 (I feel like the exact number at one point last year was 3:27). The running clock in theory should end these games a bit earlier ... BUT... That wasn't as big of as thought of... The endgame is these TV contracts want their same amount of specified ad time (if not more) during their time slots.

The basis is, it's all a bunch of bullshit 'player safety ' etc when the bottom line is ALWAYS money.

These TV networks aren't losing commercial time if we have a game with 6 ten minute drives(using your example). They'll work in stoppages etc.

Have you ever seen a random NBA game with no whistles for the last 6 mins of a quarter? They'll find one in that last minute in order to satisfy a TV timeout.

 

[B.A.R.]

Absolutely.

Each year they shorten actual game time in order to add more advertising.

Just slowly killing the sport each and every year.

I should rephrase this.

They are not intentionally telling us this is for more advertising. They simply find ways over time to increase it.

Why do you think replay will never go away? That's an extra 2-10 commercial breaks a game.

The same goes for minor injuries. Player A could have a jammed finger and they immediately go to commercial break even when that player is able to jump onto the sidelines quickly. I wrote a post with a great example from last year's unlv Mich game (was sitting behind Rebs bench).

Game play shortened but game windows stay the same. Bottom line.

 

[FadeTheHype]

Sorry, we're going to disagree here.

I'll pull up some numbers from last year over the next few days....

Advertising increased slightly (not as much as thought, but a bit) with last year's changes.

2006-2008 (somewhere in this time frame) was when they started messing with the clock rules in CFB. Watch a game in the 90s or early 2000's and you'll understand the differences. I'll try and pull up the thread here where we were bemoaning the moves made.

Anyways, there have been many changes to CFB in general the past 16-18 years...and clock rules are the ones that drive many of us nuts...

What I'm saying above is that a noon kick is still finishing somewhere between 315-345 (I feel like the exact number at one point last year was 3:27). The running clock in theory should end these games a bit earlier ... BUT... That wasn't as big of as thought of... The endgame is these TV contracts want their same amount of specified ad time (if not more) during their time slots.

The basis is, it's all a bunch of bullshit 'player safety ' etc when the bottom line is ALWAYS money.

These TV networks aren't losing commercial time if we have a game with 6 ten minute drives(using your example). They'll work in stoppages etc.

Have you ever seen a random NBA game with no whistles for the last 6 mins of a quarter? They'll find one in that last minute in order to satisfy a TV timeout.

Unless we aren't on the same page of what "advertising" is defined, there's no way to know who is on the correct side of this. My side of this, is actual commercial time and not dollar figures. Nobody wants to see endless commercials. We all know 3 timeouts each half by every team and so forth, maybe a challenge or two but I think college football has skimped a few commercials due to the running clock. That's all I'm trying to say. The running clock in my estimation has cut out at least 1 or 2 commercial breaks each half.

 

[PappyOSU]

Thanks for sharing the Circa release @B.A.R.

There is a pretty straight forward correlated parlay in the Ohio State Akron game. If you happen to like the Buckeyes then it makes a lot of sense to parlay it with the Over. You are not assuming too much additional risk to pair the two together, at least in my opinion.

As far as some random thoughts that dont warrant their own thread I see 3 games that I like at first glance.. no real handicapping yet just the ones that stood out to me and my ever growing gut.

I like Alabama who has an enormous advantage on the field of course but also a lot to prove with a new coach. Backed by a fabricated sense of disrespect they are not accustomed with, this game gets out of hand early and cruises to the cover.

I like Clemson to hang with Georgia. I think team talent overall is fairly similar and a veteran QB can keep the Tigers within the generous number.

Finally I like Northwestern for a different reason. There is some growing excitement within the Northwestern program with the new stadium on the way so considering the emotions of college kids, the farewell tour angle feels like it will provide the needed juice at home to manage the 4 pts they are giving to Miami OH

Ill begin my actual handicapping in the coming weeks and focus more on betting the numbers rather than the teams. Cant wait to dive into these and share some more thoughts that are backed up with data and not whatever is in my gut from last night (beer and chicken wings in case you weren't wondering)

LFG

 

[steponaduck]

Thanks for sharing the Circa release @B.A.R.

There is a pretty straight forward correlated parlay in the Ohio State Akron game. If you happen to like the Buckeyes then it makes a lot of sense to parlay it with the Over. You are not assuming too much additional risk to pair the two together, at least in my opinion.

As far as some random thoughts that dont warrant their own thread I see 3 games that I like at first glance.. no real handicapping yet just the ones that stood out to me and my ever growing gut.

I like Alabama who has an enormous advantage on the field of course but also a lot to prove with a new coach. Backed by a fabricated sense of disrespect they are not accustomed with, this game gets out of hand early and cruises to the cover.

I like Clemson to hang with Georgia. I think team talent overall is fairly similar and a veteran QB can keep the Tigers within the generous number.

Finally I like Northwestern for a different reason. There is some growing excitement within the Northwestern program with the new stadium on the way so considering the emotions of college kids, the farewell tour angle feels like it will provide the needed juice at home to manage the 4 pts they are giving to Miami OH

Ill begin my actual handicapping in the coming weeks and focus more on betting the numbers rather than the teams. Cant wait to dive into these and share some more thoughts that are backed up with data and not whatever is in my gut from last night (beer and chicken wings in case you weren't wondering)

LFG

You cannot parlay Ohio state + over. It’s now allowed.

At least not at fair odds. You might get some book to let you “SGP” but I’m sure you take that deal and you’re getting -105 rather than +260 for a2 teamer.

 

[DOUBLEUP4LIFE]

Appreciate all the fantastic insight here !!!

Plan on only capping the MAC , this wonderful should produce far better results than myself ( Tailing $$$)

 

[CPA-hole]

Utep for the limit. Lol

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Current odds:

https://sports.betonline.ag/sportsbook/football/ncaa

 

[STEED]

A reminder our NCAAF SATURDAY SURVIVOR is live, open and ready for your picks!

Click here to join/play for FREE!

 

[B.A.R.]

A reminder our NCAAF SATURDAY SURVIVOR is live, open and ready for your picks!

Click here to join/play for FREE!

Get your selections in boys and girls!