Week 1 Discussion
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braves
Pretty much a regular
Las Vegas Sharps Report! NFL Week 1
Slightly different in Week One is the fact that the openers went up a long time ago! So, today’s line moves may have been triggered a few weeks ago rather than a few hours ago. But, you will still get a sense of who the Wise Guys have been backing and why.
Are you ready for some football betting?
NEW ORLEANS AT ATLANTA:
We’ve had a very big move here since the game first went up at Atlanta -1.5. Not only have we flipped favorites, but New Orleans has been bet all the way up to the magic number of three! The Sharps have made it very clear that they are skeptical of Atlanta bouncing back into playoff contention. Remember that home field advantage is worth three points…so the market is telling you that the Saints are a full SIX points better than the Falcons on a neutral field. Some Sharp dog action has come in on the three…and the Wise Guys stopped betting the Saints at that threshold. Not much interest on the Over/Under, which has centered around 51.5, though I should mention that most Sharps anticipate that scoring will be up this year based on the new NFL rules favoring offense.
MINNESOTA AT ST. LOUIS:
An opener of St. Louis by 5.5 has fallen down to just 3.5, keyed by the news during the Preseason that Sam Bradford was lost for the season with a knee injury. Well, the bulk of the move was caused by that. Some additional Vikings money has been coming in this week. The Rams are now seen as only slightly better than the Vikings on a neutral field, rather than almost a full field goal better. That same injury caused the Over/Under to drop from 45 to 43. Not only is that a big move…but it jumps out even more given that the Wise Guys have almost universally been gravitating towards betting Overs this season.
CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH: Cleveland’s exhibition slate went so poorly in terms of their projected quarterback possibilities that the Steelers have been bet up through the summer from -5 to -6.5. Sharp money would come in on the Browns at +7 because that’s a key number for a defensive dog in a big rivalry game. The Wise Guys liked Pittsburgh at -6 or less. The opening total of 40.5 is up to 41.5. That’s based on the general perception that scoring will go up under the new rules enforcement rather than anything team related.
JACKSONVILLE AT PHILADELPHIA: Sharps surprised even themselves by falling in love with Jacksonville as a value team this summer. That’s led to support on the Jaguars at the opener of +11 and at +10.5. The number has settled on a solid ten as of press time. Sharps have been impressed with the attitude and effort of the rebuilding Jags. The Over/Under is up a point from 51.5 to 52.5 in what Philadelphia hopes is an up-tempo game.
OAKLAND AT NY JETS:
Oakland is now rated as worst in the NFL in many respected Power Ratings assessments because of the switch to rookie quarterback Derek Carr. That announcement pushed the Jets from -5 up to -5.5, and there’s a chance the public will drive the number to six or higher before kickoff. Interesting here, because the Wise guys are generally down on Jets quarterback Geno Smith. There might be some anti-Jets smart money coming in on the dog at higher game day prices. Not much interest in the total with such iffy quarterbacks. We’re seeing a low Week One number of 40 at the moment.
CINCINNATI AT BALTIMORE:
Cincinnati is seen as the better team, so the opener went up below a field goal with host Baltimore at -2.5. Sharps preferring the dog noted that favorite money never came in under the key number, so they’ve been investing in Cincinnati at +2.5 and at +2. Note that the Bengals will be a popular teaser choice in two-teamers because a six point move from the +1.5 to +2.5 range covers both the three and the seven. Not a lot of games in the traditional Sharp teaser “strike zone” this week. Little interest in the Over/Under so far.
BUFFALO AT CHICAGO:
Buffalo is another team that had quarterback issues during the summer, so Sharps have been fading the Bills with Chicago at anything under -7. To this point, dog money hasn’t been coming in on Buffalo. That might not happen until a 7.5 is seen after public betting. Wise Guys aren’t yet sold on Chicago as a playoff contender, but they foresee big problems ahead for Buffalo this season. The Over/Under is down a point from 48.5 to 47.5 .
WASHINGTON AT HOUSTON:
The summer has mostly seen a mild tug-of-war between Houston -2.5 and Washington +3. Sharps aren’t really confident in either team right now in terms of making a run at the .500 mark straight up. Through the preseason, more skepticism of RGIII has emerged in the markets, adding some heft to the Houston side of the equation. This game will likely sit on the three until kickoff. The Over/Under is down from 46 to 44.5 because RGIII has been moving and throwing so poorly.
TENNESSEE AT KANSAS CITY:
Huge support for Tennessee here, in what might be the most telling move of the whole first week. Kansas City opened at -6, but is now all the way down to -3! Earlier action had already dropped the six down to Tennessee +4.5. But, late in the week, more skepticism of the Chiefs has emerged and we’re at the key number. Keep monitoring through the weekend to see if there’s a bounce back higher off the three. It hasn’t happened as of press time. Sharps are REALLY down on Kansas City. Not much interest in the total.
NEW ENGLAND AT MIAMI:
We seem to have mixed opinions here, as an early surge toward New England at the opener of -3.5 (reaching as high as -5 or -5.5 in outliers) has been falling back because of home underdog money. Sharps are concerned about New England’s ability to dominate decent defenses on the road, a lesson they learned last season a few times. Note that even if the Patriots settle in at -4, that means they’re seen as a full touchdown better on a neutral field. Nothing happening on the total. If defensive holding calls had caused a scoring explosion in Preseason, the Patriots and Over would have been much more heavily bet here.
CAROLINA AT TAMPA BAY:
The other dramatic move of the Preseason (besides Kansas City and Atlanta) has come here, as we’ve flipped favorites from Carolina -2 several weeks ago to Tampa Bay -2.5 right now. The most recent part of that move was keyed by the news that Cam Newton is playing with a fractured rib. Notice though that the number hasn’t yet moved all the way to the full three. Carolina +3 would attract heavy Sharp action and Carolina at +2 or +2.5 would trigger teaser bets that moved Carolina up to +8 or +8.5. The total has been bet down from an opener of 39.5 to 38.5 because of Newton’s probable lack of explosiveness.
SAN FRANCISCO AT DALLAS:
Throw Dallas on the list of teams that Sharps have no interest in. This number has moved up from SF -3.5 to SF -5 even though the Niners had a few weeks of offensive issues themselves in the Preseason. San Francisco was giving out “fade” signals, yet the Wise Guys still stuck with them here. The total has been bet up from 48 to 52 because the Dallas defense looks to be among the worst in the league again, and because SF has lost some of their key players and intimidation factor on that side of the ball.
INDIANAPOLIS AT DENVER:
Even though we’ve only seen a move of a point in the Sunday Night game on NBC…it was a BIG point. Denver opened at -6.5, but has now crashed through the key number of seven and is sitting at -7.5 at press time. The fact that there WASN’T buy back on Indy at +7.5 is telling indeed. Sharps who liked Denver are ecstatic they got in at -6.5 or -7. Potential dog backers are waiting to see if they can get at least +8. Not much interest in the total yet. But, if we see a high scoring afternoon influenced by more defensive holding calls, then Sharps will hit this Over before kickoff (currently seeing 55.5).
NY GIANTS AT DETROIT (Monday Night):
We’ve already seen that Sharps are skeptical of Washington and Dallas in the NFC East (and they bet against Philadelphia too for that matter). More of the same for the Giants, whose starters struggled badly while trying to learn the West Coast offense. An opener of Detroit -4 is now up to Detroit -6. New York money may not come in until the seven is broached. The total is up though, from 45.5 to 47, partly based on the assumption that incomplete passes from the Giants will help create a longer game with more overall possessions.
SAN DIEGO AT ARIZONA (Monday Night):
The final game of the week! And, the game that might have the most betting action of all because we have the potential for a strong tug-of-war in the game that goes off last of all. Arizona -3 is getting market support. San Diego +3.5 is loved by Sharps. Sportsbooks have to go with one of those at any given moment…and it’s pretty clear which team’s backers will walk to the window at that time. The percentage power of the three is such that BOTH of those can be seen as Sharp plays. Meaning…Arizona cashes more than half the time when the game doesn’t land on the three…but San Diego cashes more than half the time when the three is included. The Over/Under is up from 44 to 44.5.
Slightly different in Week One is the fact that the openers went up a long time ago! So, today’s line moves may have been triggered a few weeks ago rather than a few hours ago. But, you will still get a sense of who the Wise Guys have been backing and why.
Are you ready for some football betting?
NEW ORLEANS AT ATLANTA:
We’ve had a very big move here since the game first went up at Atlanta -1.5. Not only have we flipped favorites, but New Orleans has been bet all the way up to the magic number of three! The Sharps have made it very clear that they are skeptical of Atlanta bouncing back into playoff contention. Remember that home field advantage is worth three points…so the market is telling you that the Saints are a full SIX points better than the Falcons on a neutral field. Some Sharp dog action has come in on the three…and the Wise Guys stopped betting the Saints at that threshold. Not much interest on the Over/Under, which has centered around 51.5, though I should mention that most Sharps anticipate that scoring will be up this year based on the new NFL rules favoring offense.
MINNESOTA AT ST. LOUIS:
An opener of St. Louis by 5.5 has fallen down to just 3.5, keyed by the news during the Preseason that Sam Bradford was lost for the season with a knee injury. Well, the bulk of the move was caused by that. Some additional Vikings money has been coming in this week. The Rams are now seen as only slightly better than the Vikings on a neutral field, rather than almost a full field goal better. That same injury caused the Over/Under to drop from 45 to 43. Not only is that a big move…but it jumps out even more given that the Wise Guys have almost universally been gravitating towards betting Overs this season.
CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH: Cleveland’s exhibition slate went so poorly in terms of their projected quarterback possibilities that the Steelers have been bet up through the summer from -5 to -6.5. Sharp money would come in on the Browns at +7 because that’s a key number for a defensive dog in a big rivalry game. The Wise Guys liked Pittsburgh at -6 or less. The opening total of 40.5 is up to 41.5. That’s based on the general perception that scoring will go up under the new rules enforcement rather than anything team related.
JACKSONVILLE AT PHILADELPHIA: Sharps surprised even themselves by falling in love with Jacksonville as a value team this summer. That’s led to support on the Jaguars at the opener of +11 and at +10.5. The number has settled on a solid ten as of press time. Sharps have been impressed with the attitude and effort of the rebuilding Jags. The Over/Under is up a point from 51.5 to 52.5 in what Philadelphia hopes is an up-tempo game.
OAKLAND AT NY JETS:
Oakland is now rated as worst in the NFL in many respected Power Ratings assessments because of the switch to rookie quarterback Derek Carr. That announcement pushed the Jets from -5 up to -5.5, and there’s a chance the public will drive the number to six or higher before kickoff. Interesting here, because the Wise guys are generally down on Jets quarterback Geno Smith. There might be some anti-Jets smart money coming in on the dog at higher game day prices. Not much interest in the total with such iffy quarterbacks. We’re seeing a low Week One number of 40 at the moment.
CINCINNATI AT BALTIMORE:
Cincinnati is seen as the better team, so the opener went up below a field goal with host Baltimore at -2.5. Sharps preferring the dog noted that favorite money never came in under the key number, so they’ve been investing in Cincinnati at +2.5 and at +2. Note that the Bengals will be a popular teaser choice in two-teamers because a six point move from the +1.5 to +2.5 range covers both the three and the seven. Not a lot of games in the traditional Sharp teaser “strike zone” this week. Little interest in the Over/Under so far.
BUFFALO AT CHICAGO:
Buffalo is another team that had quarterback issues during the summer, so Sharps have been fading the Bills with Chicago at anything under -7. To this point, dog money hasn’t been coming in on Buffalo. That might not happen until a 7.5 is seen after public betting. Wise Guys aren’t yet sold on Chicago as a playoff contender, but they foresee big problems ahead for Buffalo this season. The Over/Under is down a point from 48.5 to 47.5 .
WASHINGTON AT HOUSTON:
The summer has mostly seen a mild tug-of-war between Houston -2.5 and Washington +3. Sharps aren’t really confident in either team right now in terms of making a run at the .500 mark straight up. Through the preseason, more skepticism of RGIII has emerged in the markets, adding some heft to the Houston side of the equation. This game will likely sit on the three until kickoff. The Over/Under is down from 46 to 44.5 because RGIII has been moving and throwing so poorly.
TENNESSEE AT KANSAS CITY:
Huge support for Tennessee here, in what might be the most telling move of the whole first week. Kansas City opened at -6, but is now all the way down to -3! Earlier action had already dropped the six down to Tennessee +4.5. But, late in the week, more skepticism of the Chiefs has emerged and we’re at the key number. Keep monitoring through the weekend to see if there’s a bounce back higher off the three. It hasn’t happened as of press time. Sharps are REALLY down on Kansas City. Not much interest in the total.
NEW ENGLAND AT MIAMI:
We seem to have mixed opinions here, as an early surge toward New England at the opener of -3.5 (reaching as high as -5 or -5.5 in outliers) has been falling back because of home underdog money. Sharps are concerned about New England’s ability to dominate decent defenses on the road, a lesson they learned last season a few times. Note that even if the Patriots settle in at -4, that means they’re seen as a full touchdown better on a neutral field. Nothing happening on the total. If defensive holding calls had caused a scoring explosion in Preseason, the Patriots and Over would have been much more heavily bet here.
CAROLINA AT TAMPA BAY:
The other dramatic move of the Preseason (besides Kansas City and Atlanta) has come here, as we’ve flipped favorites from Carolina -2 several weeks ago to Tampa Bay -2.5 right now. The most recent part of that move was keyed by the news that Cam Newton is playing with a fractured rib. Notice though that the number hasn’t yet moved all the way to the full three. Carolina +3 would attract heavy Sharp action and Carolina at +2 or +2.5 would trigger teaser bets that moved Carolina up to +8 or +8.5. The total has been bet down from an opener of 39.5 to 38.5 because of Newton’s probable lack of explosiveness.
SAN FRANCISCO AT DALLAS:
Throw Dallas on the list of teams that Sharps have no interest in. This number has moved up from SF -3.5 to SF -5 even though the Niners had a few weeks of offensive issues themselves in the Preseason. San Francisco was giving out “fade” signals, yet the Wise Guys still stuck with them here. The total has been bet up from 48 to 52 because the Dallas defense looks to be among the worst in the league again, and because SF has lost some of their key players and intimidation factor on that side of the ball.
INDIANAPOLIS AT DENVER:
Even though we’ve only seen a move of a point in the Sunday Night game on NBC…it was a BIG point. Denver opened at -6.5, but has now crashed through the key number of seven and is sitting at -7.5 at press time. The fact that there WASN’T buy back on Indy at +7.5 is telling indeed. Sharps who liked Denver are ecstatic they got in at -6.5 or -7. Potential dog backers are waiting to see if they can get at least +8. Not much interest in the total yet. But, if we see a high scoring afternoon influenced by more defensive holding calls, then Sharps will hit this Over before kickoff (currently seeing 55.5).
NY GIANTS AT DETROIT (Monday Night):
We’ve already seen that Sharps are skeptical of Washington and Dallas in the NFC East (and they bet against Philadelphia too for that matter). More of the same for the Giants, whose starters struggled badly while trying to learn the West Coast offense. An opener of Detroit -4 is now up to Detroit -6. New York money may not come in until the seven is broached. The total is up though, from 45.5 to 47, partly based on the assumption that incomplete passes from the Giants will help create a longer game with more overall possessions.
SAN DIEGO AT ARIZONA (Monday Night):
The final game of the week! And, the game that might have the most betting action of all because we have the potential for a strong tug-of-war in the game that goes off last of all. Arizona -3 is getting market support. San Diego +3.5 is loved by Sharps. Sportsbooks have to go with one of those at any given moment…and it’s pretty clear which team’s backers will walk to the window at that time. The percentage power of the three is such that BOTH of those can be seen as Sharp plays. Meaning…Arizona cashes more than half the time when the game doesn’t land on the three…but San Diego cashes more than half the time when the three is included. The Over/Under is up from 44 to 44.5.
tee*dub
Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
can now get sheep at -3 +105.. insane IMO.. Greg Williams kept the defense vanilla all pre season. He now gets to play with his new toys, and those toys are elite in the front seven with depth.. AD always worries me, but don't see him going off too much.. And like many guys I respect, I much prefer Shaun Hill over Bradford.. JMO tho
C-MAN
Pretty much a regular
I do understand. I'm saying +7 makes me want to take the Bills. They are putting enough Pts out there to entice the dog bettors.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
I hope I'm one of those guys Tee lol. Hill might not be as gifted athletically but he has the brains that Bradford hasn't shown. And how much more athletic was Bradford anyway with the ACL? St Louis should be buzzing. I hope to God you're right. GL!
Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
Ill be on the Browns today +7, may have to buy up.
Seeing smarter money coming in on the dog
Seeing smarter money coming in on the dog
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
Gilmore is inactive @ Bears
That makes an already suspect defensive backfield more thin. Corey Graham will get the start, and Woods will likely see more playing time. He is a playmaker but often overpursues and takes too many chances. Like the over even more now
That makes an already suspect defensive backfield more thin. Corey Graham will get the start, and Woods will likely see more playing time. He is a playmaker but often overpursues and takes too many chances. Like the over even more now
Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
Also looking at Bills +7 for 1pm games. Like Jags, but cant bet against my Eagles.
At 4pm, looking at the Cowgirls.
At 4pm, looking at the Cowgirls.
Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
My local in Philly offering me Jags +11. Might have no choice but to take it
braves
Pretty much a regular
daveniner
Pretty much a regular
I think that speaks volumes to your confidence in Bradford.
Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
Fade friend on Jags and Bengals
Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
Nice timing
2daBank
Voice of Reason
i swear this looks really similar to last season when browns traded trich 2 ypc ass and for some reason ppl unloaded on this same minny team moving the line a bunch of points based off a player worth absolutely 0 to his team..my impatient ass hit them -3 -105 knowing damn well my plan all week was to wait till the very end and see what i could get, it gonna be even money under 3 before kick! ppl have lost their minds if they simply pounding viks cause bradford is out, i know they looked pretty good in preseason but gonna take zimmer a while to get that d where he likes it i think..
Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
My final card for 1pm:
Browns +7 buy 2u
Bills +7 1u
Rams -2.5 1u
Browns +7 buy 2u
Bills +7 1u
Rams -2.5 1u
