Week 0 and 1 plays.

[M.W.]

Will add some thoughts regarding some of the plays later as well as some thoughts on Clemson.

Week 0:

ND/Navy over 50
FIU +11 and ML
SDSU -2.5

Week 1:

Carolinas over 62.5
LSU/FSU under 56
La Tech +19 and +610
Neb/Minn under 46
ULM +7.5
Minn -7
Haw +7
Ohio State -27
TAMU over
Duke team under whatever

Small moneyline plays and parlays on La Tech, ULM, Haw, NIU, UNT, Akron

 

[M.W.]

Will likely play LIU in week 1 when FBS/FCS lines come out

Looking at Iowa game and TCU game as well.

 

[B.A.R.]

Good luck all season!

 

[M.W.]

Thanks, BAR.

 

[Timh]

MW BOL on the season!

 

[M.W.]

Thanks, Tim!

 

[M.W.]

I added ND team over 34.5

First, some history I just learned this morning In 1996 and 2012, these teams met in Ireland. Results: ND 54-27 as -16 (1996) and ND 50-10 as -16 (2012). Those games were late in the season. Perhaps the Irish get fired up to play in Ireland.

In the last 33 meetings, Notre Dame is 12-21 ATS, but Notre Dame is 5-0 ATS when they play Navy game 7 or earlier and 2-0 ATS vs Navy in Ireland. ND has Tennessee State on deck. ND has a scout team QB who ran the option in high school. Bad news is the same kid ran the scout team before last year's game also. But that was game 10, between the huge win over Clemson and Boston College. This time they're fully focused.

This is part of it, but main reason for the over/team over play is what Hartman did at Wake against similar athletes in his games against Army the last two years, and what ND's passing game did to Navy last year.

Hartman at QB has lit up Army (not Navy) past two years; presume Navy D has similar athletes
2021 - 23-29-458, 5-0 (Wake 70-56 as -3, total 54)
2022 - 13-19-246, 1-0 (Wake 45-10 as -16, total 65.5)

LY Notre Dame beat Navy 35-32 – ND passed 17-21-269, 4-1

Irish Illustrated guys think Hartman will throw the ball downfield a good bit, Their predictions:

41-17
41-13
38-14
28-10
41-13
42-7

My preliminary calculations say we'll lose an average of 6.5 plays (runs, passes, punts, FGA's) per game, or between 4 and 5% of the game/points.

 

[M.W.]

Play on SDSU is based on Albin's lack of interest in early-season non-conference games. The lack of interest varies from total at big numbers (dog or fave) to less as the line gets smaller. This is in the middle, so a bit iffy.

 

[twinkie13]

GL this year bro

 

[M.W.]

Thanks, Twinkie.

 

[bones]

Good luck all season

 

[M.W.]

Top three plays hit in Notre Dame team over, FIU, and SDSU.

Week 1

La Tech. They are now in the same spot FIU was in yesterday.

 

[M.W.]

LSU total is up to 58, Neb total is down to 43.5.

 

[M.W.]

Played Duke team under 21.

 

[M.W.]

Adding early games

Lib -7.5
Okla -35.5
Tenn -27.5
NIU +8.5

Also La Tech +21

 

[M.W.]

Also

TCU -20.5

 

[M.W.]

Looks like SMU is excited to be joining the ACC. Bad bet on my part.