Week 0/1 Thoughts and Plays

[M.W.]

Week 0

Two plays already posted in other threads at then-available lines (UH over 29.5 / UF under 28).

--
Ariz at Hawaii

Rolovich has been terrible ATS, but he and his offense have started well. Arizona, with a healthier Tate, should be able to contribute plenty of points to the over, and I'll also take Hawaii plus the points (with a smaller ML play).

2* Hawaii/Arizona over
1* Hawaii team over 29.5
1* Hawaii +11
0.3* + 348

--
UF v Miami (Orlando)

Expect Miami to start slowly with a first-time starter at QB. However, a lot of Georgia fans seem to like Williams (who plyed HS ball in Georgia and was recruited by the Dawgs). Some have said they actually liked him better than Fields, who was ultimately the QB take for UGA in that class. So I wouldn't be surprised to see Miami keep it close or win it outright once Williams and the OC get comfortable. The Canes have the D to do it. The Gators faced four really good D's last year and scored 16 (UK), 13 (MSU), 27 (LSU), and 17 (UGA) points. There are also lots of questions about the Gators OL.

Will look to add a 2H play on the Canes.

1* UF team under 28
0.5* UF team under 27
0.5* under 47
0.5* Miami +7.5
0.3* Miami +255

 

[B.A.R.]

Good stuff sir, can't wait for it to get going!

 

[M.W.]

For week 1, I have played Ole Miss (will look up the number later) and will likely add the following:

Clemson 1H and 1H team over
Gardner-Webb/Charlotte over
Rice
Rutgers
ECU
NW

Other looks:

Texas State
Tex St/TAMU over
Kent/ASU over
Utah
Georgia Southern
ULL
S Caro 1H
Wyo
Wyo/Mizzou under
Iowa
Mich
Vandy
Louisiana Tech
Fresno
Kansas

 

[Dexterdog]

Week 0

Two plays already posted in other threads at then-available lines (UH over 29.5 / UF under 28).

--
Ariz at Hawaii

Rolovich has been terrible ATS, but he and his offense have started well. Arizona, with a healthier Tate, should be able to contribute plenty of points to the over, and I'll also take Hawaii plus the points (with a smaller ML play).

2* Hawaii/Arizona over
1* Hawaii team over 29.5
1* Hawaii +11
0.3* + 348

--
UF v Miami (Orlando)

Expect Miami to start slowly with a first-time starter at QB. However, a lot of Georgia fans seem to like Williams (who plyed HS ball in Georgia and was recruited by the Dawgs). Some have said they actually liked him better than Fields, who was ultimately the QB take for UGA in that class. So I wouldn't be surprised to see Miami keep it close or win it outright once Williams and the OC get comfortable. The Canes have the D to do it. The Gators faced four really good D's last year and scored 16 (UK), 13 (MSU), 27 (LSU), and 17 (UGA) points. There are also lots of questions about the Gators OL.

Will look to add a 2H play on the Canes.

1* UF team under 28
0.5* UF team under 27
0.5* under 47
0.5* Miami +7.5
0.3* Miami +255

I’m with ya on the Canes defense, I’ll take the points.

 

[s--k]

What's the thinking on Rice? I might think they have some potential on D to matchup vs Army. I think Owl front 7 will be better vs opponents their own size and with option in week 1 have had to put alot of focus on option assignment. Plus, this game will have huge emphasis for Rice as they are looking at 0-3 in weeks 2-4 vs P5. My issue and question falls with the Rice O. What do you have on that?

 

[Brewers888]

Dan Enos should be a huge upgrade over Richt so the Miami offense may be much improved.

 

[M.W.]

What's the thinking on Rice? I might think they have some potential on D to matchup vs Army. I think Owl front 7 will be better vs opponents their own size and with option in week 1 have had to put alot of focus on option assignment. Plus, this game will have huge emphasis for Rice as they are looking at 0-3 in weeks 2-4 vs P5. My issue and question falls with the Rice O. What do you have on that?

It's purely a lookahead play.

 

[M.O.T]

I figure the pace plays in favor of Rice. If they can sustain a few drives and score 10-14 I think it will be tough for Army to cover.

 

[bull]

For week 1, I have played Ole Miss (will look up the number later) and will likely add the following:

Clemson 1H and 1H team over
Gardner-Webb/Charlotte over
Rice
Rutgers
ECU
NW

Other looks:

Texas State
Tex St/TAMU over
Kent/ASU over
Utah
Georgia Southern
ULL
S Caro 1H
Wyo
Wyo/Mizzou under
Iowa
Mich
Vandy
Louisiana Tech
Fresno
Kansas

Lot of likes there, mr. m.w. No dislikes except Wyoming. G L

 

[Timh]

MW BOL on the season. I have not looked at this Texas State team to date, they seem to be an under the radar squad?

 

[M.W.]

Not really, at least not in game 1. For one of the worst teams in FBS last year, their defense was surprisingly close to not all that bad. They hired an innovative OC (who, as QB coach at WVU, drew up some of the plays that helped WVU score 70 on Clemson in that infamous bowl game that got Kevin Steele fired as Clemson's DC. The problem for this bet (which is again a lookahead play) is that he will have the Bobcats playing at a lightning pace and will thereby extend the game. Over the course of the season, though, they will probably look a lot better than they did last year.

A&M fits a fade angle that is 32-2-1 ATS. It is 3-0 ATS the last 3 years by 5.3 ppg, but was amazing in 2016 when it went 4-0 by fading four favorites: Buffalo (lost 16-22 to Albany as -21), Georgia State (lost 21-31 to Ball St as -5.5), Ark (beat La Tech 21-20 as -21.5), and WSU (lost 42-45 to EWU as -27).

 

[M.W.]

Week 0

Two plays already posted in other threads at then-available lines (UH over 29.5 / UF under 28).

--
Ariz at Hawaii

Rolovich has been terrible ATS, but he and his offense have started well. Arizona, with a healthier Tate, should be able to contribute plenty of points to the over, and I'll also take Hawaii plus the points (with a smaller ML play).

2* Hawaii/Arizona over
1* Hawaii team over 29.5
1* Hawaii +11
0.3* + 348

--
UF v Miami (Orlando)

Expect Miami to start slowly with a first-time starter at QB. However, a lot of Georgia fans seem to like Williams (who plyed HS ball in Georgia and was recruited by the Dawgs). Some have said they actually liked him better than Fields, who was ultimately the QB take for UGA in that class. So I wouldn't be surprised to see Miami keep it close or win it outright once Williams and the OC get comfortable. The Canes have the D to do it. The Gators faced four really good D's last year and scored 16 (UK), 13 (MSU), 27 (LSU), and 17 (UGA) points. There are also lots of questions about the Gators OL.

Will look to add a 2H play on the Canes.

1* UF team under 28
0.5* UF team under 27
0.5* under 47
0.5* Miami +7.5
0.3* Miami +255

Two weird and ugly games, but I'll take the results.

 

[Timh]

Nice work MW.

 

[M.W.]

What's the thinking on Rice? I might think they have some potential on D to matchup vs Army. I think Owl front 7 will be better vs opponents their own size and with option in week 1 have had to put alot of focus on option assignment. Plus, this game will have huge emphasis for Rice as they are looking at 0-3 in weeks 2-4 vs P5. My issue and question falls with the Rice O. What do you have on that?

There are a couple of things that make me feel better about what is, fundamentally, a lookahead play. Rice has been terrible the last few years, but their pass D has been the greatest of their numerous weaknesses. In this game, that doesn't matter. Also, Army lost their DC Jay Bateman to UNC, and I thought he was outstanding.

 

[TahoeLegend]

Fine early handicapping on those first two games, MW.

I think I'm over the hill, like a 34-year old RB trying to stick in the NFL. I didn't see any of what you laid out about the Florida/Miami game. In fact, I didn't see anything when I looked at that game. My mind looked at the game and came back with, "no play."

It was a classic under play and the teams played a classic under game--long drives with turnovers, long drives with FGs, plenty of drive killing penalties. And yet it still almost went over

I wouldn't have played it any case--I'm sticking with my vow to never take another college under. No decision I've ever made in handicapping has made me happier.

I've instructed my brain to shift into high gear for Week One so maybe it will obey.

If not, I'll count on guys on this board like MW to give me some good picks to steal.

 

[s--k]

There are a couple of things that make me feel better about what is, fundamentally, a lookahead play. Rice has been terrible the last few years, but their pass D has been the greatest of their numerous weaknesses. In this game, that doesn't matter. Also, Army lost their DC Jay Bateman to UNC, and I thought he was outstanding.

Yeah, I can see it...it's out there a little bit, but I can see it. Rice O has a couple potential playmakers and they can only get better QB play. Early kick Friday and I will definitely be watching with maybe a little something on the Owls. They are plugging in several grad transfers, where as if I recall, last season by contrast they were losing several experienced players as grad transfers. So personnel should be a little better this year.

 

[M.W.]

Adding:

2.5* Rice +21.5
0.5* Rice +1050

2* Ole Miss +5.5
1* Ole Miss +175

 

[bull]

Thanks to an earlier post you made in another thread, last week I played Ole Miss at +190. GL

 

[M.W.]

Thanks to an earlier post you made in another thread, last week I played Ole Miss at +190. GL

It's a little early to thank me, but thanks for the kind words all the same.

 

[M.W.]

2.5* Clemson 1H -21.5

 

[M.W.]

3* La Tech + 20.5

 

[booksbestfriend]

2.5* Clemson 1H -21.5

I took this @-22 (+105) early yesterday. I don’t see GT being a force on offense this year. I’m sure the O-line has added some weight in the off-season, as they will not be able to rely on the cut scheme as much as years past. I’m curious to see if the QB can play in a non-option attack and pass when asked to.

We have been saying for 4 years that the Clemson D was going to suffer due to attrition. However, it has not happened. They seem to reload. Truly a next man up concept.

Just think the Heisman campaign starts strong. Will be eyeing the 1H TT too. Thinking in the 27-28.5 range. Certainly doable. GL, MW. Hope this hits for you.

 

[M.W.]

I saw 5Dimes had the 1H TT yesterday at 28. It's tempting.

Clemson has covered the 1H in the opener 6 of the 7 years since Venables arrived. That set of games includes neutral-site and away games vs Auburn, a home-and-home with Georgia, and three huge HF roles laying 36+. The only 1H loser was last year off the loss and non-cover in the first round of the playoff. Even so, it was 27-0 at the half (with Clemson -48.5 for the game), so it was close.

First-game performances for Clemson under Swinney have tended to correlate with the performance in the last game of the prior season, with the big exception being the win/cover vs. Auburn in the 2012 opener following the catastrophic Orange Bowl loss to WVU.

 

[M.W.]

Adding

1.5* Central Ark +10.5

 

[M.W.]

1* Texas State +34 -116

 

[M.W.]

1* Clemson team, over 48

 

[bull]

Adding

1.5* Central Ark +10.5

Well done.

 

[M.W.]

I pulled the trigger too early on Rice. I will wait a bit before adding a unit or three.

 

[M.W.]

0.5* Nevada +11
0.5* Nevada under 58.5
1* Rutgers -16.5

 

[2daBank]

I pulled the trigger too early on Rice. I will wait a bit before adding a unit or three.

Oh damn. I took a little at 21.5 too, didn’t want to take chance it dropped any lower. Was really only game i liked tonight. Maybe I’ll join w adding, lol.

 

[M.W.]

2019 Week 1 Preview: Rice Owls @ Army Black Knights

Mike Bloomgren prepares for Army’s triple option, names Wiley Green starter at West Point

www.underdogdynasty.com

Factoring in all the intricacies of the offense, the triple option takes extra time to prepare for, so Rice benefited by strategizing for its Week 1 opponent months in advance.

“I don’t think it’s just Army’s offense — I think Army, in all three phases, they challenge you,” Bloomgren said. “It would be extremely hard to prepare for this team in one week. Luckily for us, we started practicing on them in the spring, and for the last two weeks, our commitment to them defensively has been well. You have to practice against live cutting, which we did. You have to practice against the speed of this system to the best of your ability.”

 

[s--k]

I read that too. Not sure if alot of teams practice against live cutting, but that jumped out to me.

I also just read now in that story that WR Cephus was suspended indefinitely in July, #2 receiver think he was 3rd Tm or HM CUSA '18.

Army was 31 of 36 on 4th down last year. That can be so demoralizing to hold on 3rd and they come back and convert a 4th down...while they put together a 20 play scoring drive.

I'll be on Owls though.

 

[M.W.]

I don't know about the live cutting, either, but I've never heard anyone mention it. Army is just horrendous as a favorite, especially if they're playing a team they beat in the last meeti9ng. Make it a revenge game, like the Fordham game a couple years ago, and it's a different matter.

 

[s--k]

Blurb about Wiley Green rFr Rice starting QB:

Rice football has their QB1. Head coach Mike Bloomgren has named Wiley Green the starting quarterback. He wins the job over incoming grad transfer Tom Stewart, who joined the Owls this summer from Harvard. The decision was made in the week leading up to the Owls’ first game of the season against Army.

Green had a big spring and continued to progress in his command of the offense during fall camp. He mastered the playbook and understands the finer details of the offensive scheme. He led the competition throughout fall camp, securing the job following a strong showing at the Owls final scrimmage.

Green appeared in four games as a true freshman last season, taking advantage of the new redshirt rule to preserve a year of eligibility while still gaining meaningful on field experience. He threw for 621 yards with three touchdowns and four interceptions. He added two rushing scores, including his first collegiate touchdown against North Texas. Green led Rice to their first conference win in the Mike Bloomgren era, starting the team’s season-ending victory over Old Dominion.

Rice Football: Wiley Green named Owls' starting quarterback

Rice Football head coach Mike Bloomgren named redshirt freshman Wiley Green the starting quarterback following a competition with grad transfer Tom Stewart.

attheroost.com

Feel a little better knowing the QB that gained some experience and worked his way up last year's depth chart earned the job though camp rather than going with the unknown of the Harvard grad transfer. Hopefully Green has progressed and can put together some good possessions tonight and complete timely passes. Army will probably want to put Riley on Trammell, best on best and force the young QB to go elsewhere with less proven play makers. But I figure Rice will probably try and ground and pound a bunch and keep their O on the field...we know Army can stay on the field doing that, hopefully Rice can as well.

 

[M.W.]

I'm playing the over simply because that's how the games tend to play out when Army is favored.

1* Army/Rice over 46.5

 

[M.W.]

1* Rice team over 12.5

 

[booksbestfriend]

1* Rice team over 12.5

My book is showing 1H Rice TT Over 6.5 (+115). Took a small stab. Hoping a TD is not too much to ask.

 

[M.W.]

Wow -- 4th-down stop at Army's own 15

 

[Fondybadger]

GL

 

[M.W.]

That Rice kicker cost me a shot at this (although the way Rutgers looks, maybe not):

$5.00	$2,219.36	Pending	5 Team Parlay
				Win	8/29/19 7:30pm College Football 229 Gardner-Webb/Charlotte Over 54½ -110*
				Win	8/29/19 7:30pm College Football 231 Central Arkansas +320* vs Western Kentucky
				Cancelled	8/30/19 6:00pm College Football 145 Rice 1st Half +675* vs Army
				Pending	8/30/19 7:15pm College Football 154 Rutgers 1st Half -9 -110* vs Massachusetts
				Pending	8/30/19 9:30pm College Football 158 Nevada 1st Half +275* vs Purdue

 

[M.W.]

GL

Thanks, Fondy. Good luck to your Badgers.

 

[M.W.]

2* Howard +32