Week 0-1 ML Dogs

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
It’s that time again!!!!

Let’s get this thread started and get ready for the ML Dog Contest.

If you’re new to the site. Each week we discuss potential upsets and hopefully find a few winners here and there.

Share your thoughts on teams that you think have a shot at hitting the ML as an Underdog.

Let’s get this the discussion going for Week 0-1
 
Am I crazy to think Rice has a shot? Army has Michigan on deck, and -- as bad as Rice is -- the one thing that Rice does worst (stop the pass) is the one thing that Army can't take advantage of. Also, that DC who left for UNC was really good and will be missed.
 
Am I crazy to think Rice has a shot? Army has Michigan on deck, and -- as bad as Rice is -- the one thing that Rice does worst (stop the pass) is the one thing that Army can't take advantage of. Also, that DC who left for UNC was really good and will be missed.
I just can't see Rice slowing down Army's offense....I like Army's chances the following week at Michigan.
 
A few that catch my eye but I need to and will dig a little deeper into......

Boise St Vs FSU
NW Vs Stanford
Toledo Vs KentLucky
BYU Vs Utah
SMU Vs Ark St
FIU Vs Tulane
Ole Piss Vs MemFhis

These are Just at a quick glance......
 
Dunno, two bad teams. but U M has new coach and will miss Isabella, their great receiver who made everything happen for them offensively last two years.
Good points, and Rutgers doesn't get many chances to take out their frustration on someone like this.
 
UK and NW are on my list of possibilities as well. I'll have to look at SMU as well.
UK is favored , mr. clemson. .you mean Toledo, I’m guessing
Im considering NW and SMU as well
 
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Thanks for getting this thread back going, a must read every week. I still haven't gone through the lines much, but after a quick glance, these caught my eye:

Utah St
BYU
Boise St
Northwestern
Pitt
Oregon

On a similar note, has the ACC (sans Clemson) become like the MAC where you can blindly bet the underdogs and turn a profit? I don't see a whole lot to distinguish from 2-14 at this point
 
Fresno
Ole Miss
I’m liking Fresno but will likely take the points, Street and Smith tells me they are having to replace a star QB. I don’t know any different, but QB, Coach, and OL are the first on my look at list in opening games. Do you have any input on their QB ?
 
I’m liking Fresno but will likely take the points, Street and Smith tells me they are having to replace a star QB. I don’t know any different, but QB, Coach, and OL are the first on my look at list in opening games. Do you have any input on their QB ?
Their fans like him. I'm looking at the ML because this seems like a game with great variability -- lots of unknowns, including the QB.
 
Look who’s back!
Enjoy your time off?

Super busy, not even remotely ready for the season.

Oregon St run D is the obvious biggest cause for concern. Unknown of how good Ok St is at QB. Will Ok St continue to disappoint as a favorite? No doubt Gundy & Co aren't happy how've they played last year and will want to atone.

I like the spot for Ore St, just have to hope they've addressed some of their issues on D. Beaver O I would think can do their part.
 
BYU/Utah usually comes down to the final minutes. Last year was the definition of a trap game with UW on deck on a short week. BYU was a meaningless game other than bragging rights and they were playing with backups at the two most important positions.

Utah is getting little respect locally and probably too much respect nationally. With Huntley and Moss back for this game I expect a Utah 10 point win.
 
I have another long shot I might throw a little on....not for those with weak stomachs....ECU.

New boss in Greenville as JMU HC Mike Houston. Just 3 years ago ECU beat NC State at home as a 6 pt dog. That ECU team finished the year losing 9 of their final 10, so history has shown that a bad ECU team can beat an instate P5 team when conditions are right. HC Houston's James Madison teams played NCSt week 1 2018 and was only outgained by 27 yards in a 13-24 defeat. It appears that JMU turned it over once in the RZ and kicked two extremely short FGs. Of course, it must be noted that NC St whipped the Pirates 58-3 last year, ah-hem. Well, this is a new year. NC St loses a 3 year starter at QB, top 2 WR, 2 of top 3 RBs and 3 AA or All-ACC OL. So this O might not be a well polished machine out the gates. NC St D on the other hand, is pretty well stocked, so not much of an angle on that side of the ball. ECU returns 2 QBs that got experience last year, assuming Ahlers is the starter he should be much improved in his second season. A couple of RBs return, 4 of top 6 receivers and 4 of 5 OL who are upperclassmen. ECU D does lose their best player (DE Harvey), but the front 7 doesn't look all that bad although the secondary is weak, but again, it isn't facing an experienced QB or proven WRs to exploit it either so it isn't quite the same liability faced last season vs a good O.

Might be interesting game for a new staff to prove something on. The fact ECU's very last opponent was NC St and they got their asses kicked and get to play them again first game this year can have a motivating effect for ECU players while it could lead to a little complacency with the NC St players since, after all, they just beat this team by 55 to close last season.

It might be noteworthy that ECU's RSW total has gone from 3.5 -170 to 4 -150 to 4.5 -190. That means absolutely nothing to their prospects of winning outright week 1, but it does speak to a general optimism that this program is poised for an uptick.
 
I had noticed that mr. s. k. . Very interested in how that game turns out. I certainly don’t expect 58-3 this year.
 
I did a round-robin with these boys:

Pending8/30/19 6:00pm College Football 145 Rice +1050* vs Army
Pending8/31/19 12:00pm College Football 175 Mississippi +175* vs Memphis
Pending8/31/19 8:00pm College Football 209 Louisiana Tech +950* vs Texas
Pending8/31/19 10:30pm College Football 213 Fresno State +430* vs USC
 


Hmmmmm, still coming back to think about this one....was Klieman the North Dakota State coach when they beat Kansas State or was that Bohl? Ironic that now the former NDSU coach is at a lower-mid FBS school facing a potential upset from the FCS level, well...they are a 3 TD dog.

from hero sports on Nicholls:

THE FAVORITE: Nicholls -- The Colonels play the best defense in the Southland Conference, they have a stellar four-year starter back at quarterback in Chase Fourcade, they do all the little things right (run defense, time of possession, red zone offense and defense, etc etc). And they have a senior core of players who have gotten a lot done in their careers. We think Nicholls may go from being a strong team coming out of the Southland to ansam FCS quarterfinalist or better in 2019. This is a good program that has been built from the ground up with a great recruiting philosophy. We think this year, this team becomes a national name in the FCS, potentially starting with its two FBS matchups (Kansas State and Texas State).

SUM IT UP: Anybody who follows college football can't help but appreciate what has gone on at Nicholls the past few years. The Colonels -- who in 47 years have won 40.1 percent of their ballgames -- have suddenly become a ranked commodity at the Division I level. They beat a Big 12 program last year (Kansas), have scared others the past three years (Georgia and Texas A&M) and have won 16 of their last 22 FCS ballgames and been in the playoffs twice. Not bad for a program whose previous winning season was 6-5 back in 2007. So something is stirring here, and there's no reason to believe it will end this year. That's why the Colonels hold a high perch at No. 13 in the HERO Sports Preseason Top 25.

So what could be potential roadblocks to a stellar season? Well, we'll get to all the nitty gritty positives in a second, but one concern is certainly the offensive line. Nicholls had the No. 12 rushing attack in the FCS last year, and it started with a stellar and physical bunch of mostly local brawlers. Most of those guys have graduated, though there is still one starter back, 2018 All-Southland selection P.J. Buckhalter. New names will have to emerge. It truly is interesting that most people nationally point to QB Chase Fourcade as the big name in the Nicholls offense (well, he should be) but the run game was just as effective as what Fourcade did with his arm. This team was definitely balanced and explosive. If that line materializes quickly? It has four ball carriers (including Fourcade) who combined to rush for nearly 2,800 yards last year. And yes, we already know Fourcade can throw (ask the Manning family, who invite him to work with Archie, Peyton and Eli at the Manning Academy every summer).

So if you read the above paragraph, you may think this team is all about offense, and honestly, it's really an even better defensive program. That's why this program has flourished within the Southland the past few years. Six starters return and that doesn't even count a returnee like part-time LB starter Allen Pittman, who has been a contributor for years. The leading tackler is back (Khristian Mims), the leading TFL man returns (Evan Veron), and the leading sack man (Sully Laiche) and top statistical "pass disruptor" (Darren Evans) are also back. This defense prided itself on run defense (No. 11 in the FCS) and not letting an opponent convert on third down (No. 7) last year. It's smothering, like the summer humidity in Thibodeaux (yes, I know I spelled it the old way ... don't care). The truth is, statistically this program does all the things a sound powerhouse should do -- it plays great defense, controls the clock (No. 12 nationally in time of possession) and runs the ball well on offense.

OUR TAKE: So everything above is pretty glowing, right? And it should be. But let's get down to a concern or two (beyond the O-line concerns written about above). The Abilene Christian loss last year and the SE Louisiana loss in 2017 made us scratch our heads. Yes, both were on the road and in conference, but it's hard to understand a team like Nicholls -- who can go toe-to-toe with P5s -- not being able to handle those two opponents (and yes, we know both of those opponents finished 6-5 and were hardly cellar dwellers in the league). The thing is, this year's group is full of senior leaders who have been around since the near upset "Between the Hedges" at Georgia back in Sept. 2016. This group must avoid those pitfalls to take their playoff berths the past two seasons to the level of a possible seed and guaranteed second-round home game. That's the goal.

This fall, Nicholls faces Kansas State -- the program in the state of Kansas that usually wins and just hired away North Dakota State's head coach Chris Klieman -- and also FBS Texas State. Asking the Colonels to go to K-State and come back with a win is a tall order, but another FBS win may be on tap with Texas State, a G5 program that is rebuilding and ripe for the taking if the Colonels come in swinging. The SWAC's Prairie View A&M is the lone FCS team in the non-conference schedule, and while the Panthers are certainly one of the SWAC's top programs, that should be a win for the Colonels. In conference play, having two league front runners Central Arkansas and McNeese come to Thibodeaux (see, I did it again with the spelling -- much respect to the Acadians) is big. And the Sam Houston State contest was already discussed in the "game to watch" category above. There are landmines this year in the Southland schedule, but if Nicholls navigates them well and finds itself on the O-line? This could be a very, very special season.
 
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