NMSU was also dropping passes
Week 0/1 ML Dogs
- Thread starter ProV1Colt
- Start date
NMSU was also dropping passes
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I suppose. Two just off the top of my head but ya they could have helped out
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Great freaken thread
No you‘re definitely right it‘s just a question of degree. I was also thinking of like when qb goes right throws and pass barely skips under receiver and it was ruled incomplete after a bit of talk among the refs. Stuff like that i feel end up complete when a team isn‘t completely depleted of momentum. And i want more Huntley in iso
CHSGTMD
Pretty much a regular
Like the rest of you it has been the usual long wait for CFB to start but we are now just days away.
After reviewing the last few years plays I am going to still do my usual 70-80% on points and rest on ML of my posted plays.
However, this year I am going to look for more first half ML.
My reasoning is that the dog that wins outright is usually ahead at half.
If the dog wins outright it is pretty rare that they do it with a 2nd half comeback but it does happen.
Of my wagers the last 3 years there are over 30% where the dog was ahead at half but then barely lost like Prairie View v Rice already this year and I lost the game ML but would have won the 1st half ML.
Anybody else looked into this ?
I know the return is a little less but it seems the halftime winners would more than offset the ones that fade in 4th Qtr and if a really strong play could split it for ML first half and ML full game.
After reviewing the last few years plays I am going to still do my usual 70-80% on points and rest on ML of my posted plays.
However, this year I am going to look for more first half ML.
My reasoning is that the dog that wins outright is usually ahead at half.
If the dog wins outright it is pretty rare that they do it with a 2nd half comeback but it does happen.
Of my wagers the last 3 years there are over 30% where the dog was ahead at half but then barely lost like Prairie View v Rice already this year and I lost the game ML but would have won the 1st half ML.
Anybody else looked into this ?
I know the return is a little less but it seems the halftime winners would more than offset the ones that fade in 4th Qtr and if a really strong play could split it for ML first half and ML full game.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
It is factored into the line as well though CHSGTMD.
The reason the 1h ML will hit a higher percentage than a Full game ML is there are less plays, obviously. And, of course, there is the chance at the extra true possession at 50-50 when you are getting ++. There is less "time" for the cream to rise to the top, so to speak. But I believe this is factored into the lines already. it would certainly be an interesting research project.
The reason the 1h ML will hit a higher percentage than a Full game ML is there are less plays, obviously. And, of course, there is the chance at the extra true possession at 50-50 when you are getting ++. There is less "time" for the cream to rise to the top, so to speak. But I believe this is factored into the lines already. it would certainly be an interesting research project.
MusicCityGambler
Chill Winstonnn!
I like it. Iowa has always been susceptible to this kind of loss and NIU is typically a good mid-major team. I'm torn on whether to play it as a 1H or for the full game.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
I have locked in 3 pretty small ML dogs in Week 1 with the thinking that all 3 have at least a decent shot, especially given that 2 of the 3 are home dogs and 1-2 equals at least a little profit..
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
+306
Risking: $50.00 To win: $153.00
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
+306
Risking: $50.00 To win: $153.00
HAWAII
+361
Risking: $50.00 To win: $180.50
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
+306
Risking: $50.00 To win: $153.00
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
+306
Risking: $50.00 To win: $153.00
HAWAII
+361
Risking: $50.00 To win: $180.50
CHSGTMD
Pretty much a regular
Good luck CB, on No Ill and Hawaii with you
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
That's what dilaudid8 did his last couple of years here at CTG. He was looking for 1st Half ML plays on dogs that had senior QBs and better defenses thn their opponents. Is it too late to look for any of these for week 1?
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
Just throwing this out there but what about your thoughts on UL/Bama matchup? I ask because 1)I've been reading the Ky message boards and lots of UK fans are talking smack about UL going to get killed. Normally the opposite happens when I see a lot of online folks talking shit. And 2) I think Petrino is still a fantastic coach and his teams have always done well with plenty of time to prep.
Cards over Bama to turn the new season upside down in week 1? Perhaps??
Cards over Bama to turn the new season upside down in week 1? Perhaps??
LeRinkRat
Pretty much a regular
I think Wazzou will struggle to reach 6 wins this year while WYO is a sleeper MWC contender.
Cowboys are picked 4th in the Mountain West behind Boise State, Fresno State and SDSU and one ahead of UNLV. they already SMOKED New Mexico State their first game 29-7 on the road. they are a pick even at home this week vs Wazzo
I may be NUTS BUT I think the UNLV offense will be ON FIRE this season and COULD upset @ USC with the "condoms" freshman QB. current line UNLV +27 and ML 17-1. OVER 63 1/2 may be THE best OVER of the week
Cowboys are picked 4th in the Mountain West behind Boise State, Fresno State and SDSU and one ahead of UNLV. they already SMOKED New Mexico State their first game 29-7 on the road. they are a pick even at home this week vs Wazzo
I may be NUTS BUT I think the UNLV offense will be ON FIRE this season and COULD upset @ USC with the "condoms" freshman QB. current line UNLV +27 and ML 17-1. OVER 63 1/2 may be THE best OVER of the week
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Tulane just not good enough. Their OL got beat all night, kept trying to run...but beating their head against the wall may've allowed those deep TD throws they got behind coverage. Some drops too....WF was just better. Got to be impressed with the Hartman kid for Wake. So many Tulane drives ended just outside of FG range, lots of punts from the plus 40...Not a well managed or executed game by Tulane O. Wave D was tough vs the run, better than I expected actually. Hartman made some great throws.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Tulane's offense was basically Banks who was just incredible despite his offensive line doing everything in their power to make the Tulane offense fail. 548 yards the deacons put up without their best QB. Not good if you are a tulane fan.
Had some great entertainment in the book tonight with a guy who had Tulane ML. Some of the funniest stuff ever.
Had some great entertainment in the book tonight with a guy who had Tulane ML. Some of the funniest stuff ever.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Looks like I will have two today. Northern Illinois and North Carolina. Wyoming just kind of lost it's luster for me even if they are a small dog.
Probably won't have time to get into too much on UNC, but here is some thoughts on NIU.
NIU is accustomed to playing well on the Big Ten road under Rod Carey. 2017 won at Nebraska. 2015 lost by 7 at Ohio State. 2014 won at Northwestern. 2013 won at Iowa. This is a team that excels at exceeding expectations in games like this.
NIU is best when they have an experienced QB who can get it done with his arm and his legs. They have that again in Marcus Childers who took over last year as a rFr. The skill players around him are not yet as well known, but they typically find more than capable replacements. The experienced QB and excellent OL are the key for them. With some uncertainty then youth at QB last year, the NIU O numbers were uncharacteristly down in 2017, but should rebound nicely this year.
NIU wins with D too. They only allowed 4 opponents to top 30 pts last year which included a schedule with 3 P5 teams + SDSt. They held Toledo to 27. It is a very strong DL that would rival some of the upper-middle tier Big Ten DL units. They lose alot of production at LB, but do return Pugh who was the #2 tklr through 4 when he was OFY, so they are not void of experience there. DB loses their top guy, but has 4 of top 6 back. It was the best D of the Carey era last year.
Special teams should play a big role here. They have a transfer K who has missed some time with injury, but previously had received All-Conf recognition twice at Cincy. NIU blk'd 6 kicks/punts LY!
One of the things that makes a Big Ten team vs the MAC or whatever smaller school vs a big boy is the depth advantage that the larger school has. And no doubt Iowa is going to have more quality depth across the board than NIU can field. Early in fall camp Iowa issued one game suspensions for starting Soph OLs Tristan Wirfs (8 starts LY) and Alaric Jackson (12 starts LY) plus Jr DTs Cedrick Lattimore (6 starts, 13 gm LY) and Brady Reiff (20 games career). They can put Levi Paulsen at one T spot as he started the bowl, his only career start. No other player on the roster has a start at T. Iowa will rotate 4 DTs and have a good one in Nelson, but losing Lattimore ("best run stuffer") and Reiff ("undersized but relentless") who are 2 of the top 3 means they have to dig a little deeper (descriptive quotes courtesy of hawkcentral). Normally losing some of these top-line players for a B1G vs a MAC may not matter, but NIU is not an average MAC team and has the best OL and DL units in the league (111 career OL starts, 2 All-MAC players)(8 of top 10 DL back with 2 All-MAC players, DE Smith DPOY). So while the game won't hinge on these personnel issues, it does take away some of the advantage Iowa might normally enjoy in a game like this.
Also, 8 game starter at CB Manny Rugamba transfered in July meaning that Iowa needs to replace both CB starters (lost Jackson to NFL). Iowa also has to replace all 3 LB starters who were 1, 2, 3 in tackles.
Everyone remembers the close loss to Penn State and the 55-24 win over Ohio State last year, but this team also played in 6 one score games and also had a deceiving win over Illinois, a sleep-walking win vs NTexas. Hawks also bagged the bowl win, but were outgained by nearly 200y vs BC. Close and low scoring games with Iowa tend to be the rule.
Figure Iowa O to be improved this year with Stanley's 2nd year starting and key receivers back. Although Iowa always has nice RBs, they do replace their top 2 here and may miss Wadley's play making. Iowa's D is typically tough and respectable and they should be again just assuming track record if nothing else.
So this is not a bad Iowa team by any means, I'm not saying they may lose because they are bad necessarily. I am saying that your average Iowa team, with some loses in the trenches facing a very good all-around MAC team expecting to win games like this makes for a really competitive game, one that could certainly break for the underdog, at nearly 3:1 seems like great value to me.
Probably won't have time to get into too much on UNC, but here is some thoughts on NIU.
NIU is accustomed to playing well on the Big Ten road under Rod Carey. 2017 won at Nebraska. 2015 lost by 7 at Ohio State. 2014 won at Northwestern. 2013 won at Iowa. This is a team that excels at exceeding expectations in games like this.
NIU is best when they have an experienced QB who can get it done with his arm and his legs. They have that again in Marcus Childers who took over last year as a rFr. The skill players around him are not yet as well known, but they typically find more than capable replacements. The experienced QB and excellent OL are the key for them. With some uncertainty then youth at QB last year, the NIU O numbers were uncharacteristly down in 2017, but should rebound nicely this year.
NIU wins with D too. They only allowed 4 opponents to top 30 pts last year which included a schedule with 3 P5 teams + SDSt. They held Toledo to 27. It is a very strong DL that would rival some of the upper-middle tier Big Ten DL units. They lose alot of production at LB, but do return Pugh who was the #2 tklr through 4 when he was OFY, so they are not void of experience there. DB loses their top guy, but has 4 of top 6 back. It was the best D of the Carey era last year.
Special teams should play a big role here. They have a transfer K who has missed some time with injury, but previously had received All-Conf recognition twice at Cincy. NIU blk'd 6 kicks/punts LY!
One of the things that makes a Big Ten team vs the MAC or whatever smaller school vs a big boy is the depth advantage that the larger school has. And no doubt Iowa is going to have more quality depth across the board than NIU can field. Early in fall camp Iowa issued one game suspensions for starting Soph OLs Tristan Wirfs (8 starts LY) and Alaric Jackson (12 starts LY) plus Jr DTs Cedrick Lattimore (6 starts, 13 gm LY) and Brady Reiff (20 games career). They can put Levi Paulsen at one T spot as he started the bowl, his only career start. No other player on the roster has a start at T. Iowa will rotate 4 DTs and have a good one in Nelson, but losing Lattimore ("best run stuffer") and Reiff ("undersized but relentless") who are 2 of the top 3 means they have to dig a little deeper (descriptive quotes courtesy of hawkcentral). Normally losing some of these top-line players for a B1G vs a MAC may not matter, but NIU is not an average MAC team and has the best OL and DL units in the league (111 career OL starts, 2 All-MAC players)(8 of top 10 DL back with 2 All-MAC players, DE Smith DPOY). So while the game won't hinge on these personnel issues, it does take away some of the advantage Iowa might normally enjoy in a game like this.
Also, 8 game starter at CB Manny Rugamba transfered in July meaning that Iowa needs to replace both CB starters (lost Jackson to NFL). Iowa also has to replace all 3 LB starters who were 1, 2, 3 in tackles.
Everyone remembers the close loss to Penn State and the 55-24 win over Ohio State last year, but this team also played in 6 one score games and also had a deceiving win over Illinois, a sleep-walking win vs NTexas. Hawks also bagged the bowl win, but were outgained by nearly 200y vs BC. Close and low scoring games with Iowa tend to be the rule.
Figure Iowa O to be improved this year with Stanley's 2nd year starting and key receivers back. Although Iowa always has nice RBs, they do replace their top 2 here and may miss Wadley's play making. Iowa's D is typically tough and respectable and they should be again just assuming track record if nothing else.
So this is not a bad Iowa team by any means, I'm not saying they may lose because they are bad necessarily. I am saying that your average Iowa team, with some loses in the trenches facing a very good all-around MAC team expecting to win games like this makes for a really competitive game, one that could certainly break for the underdog, at nearly 3:1 seems like great value to me.
FIU might not be a bad one at all.
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
NIU my favorite dog of day.
Eazyduzit
UK 8 KU 3
Petrino is overrated. 1-10 vs top 25 teams in his second stint at UL. Lamar Jackson was 1-6. Miss St and LSU dominated UL in the trenches. Expect more of the same tonight. Alabama has always owned him, too.
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
Nailed it.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
That was disappointing! Iowa really brought it in the 3rd quarter. Credit to them. Didn't pay close attention to UNC, but looks like their QB got off to a horrible start.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Yes, Elliot was the stater for UNC, but he started some games last year as well. Cal did have a pick-six. UNC somehow ended up covering by the hook and was an inch or two away from recovering the onside kick that would've given them the ball back with 1-1/2 to go down 7. But UNC player barely made blocking contact with Cal player before ball went 10y. Atleast they kept fighting, they just weren't very good for 3 quarters.
Not a great day for me either but still enjoying the action. The best thing I learned in 20+ years of betting, never invest too much money or emotion one way to not appreciate good plays or impressive performances that may go against you. Not always easy in the heat of the moment, but can't let some bad picks ruin the joy of one of life's greatest gifts...college football!
Not a great day for me either but still enjoying the action. The best thing I learned in 20+ years of betting, never invest too much money or emotion one way to not appreciate good plays or impressive performances that may go against you. Not always easy in the heat of the moment, but can't let some bad picks ruin the joy of one of life's greatest gifts...college football!
The local guys got it done in overtime.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
I tailed this earlier in the week at +10 and ML +280. Lined got bumped down all week. Great call on this 1
LeRinkRat
Pretty much a regular
GREAT call on the RAINBOWS!!! they are NOW 2-0 on their season with dog WINS @ Colorado State 43-34 AND vs Navy 59-41. get Rice at home next Saturday :shake:
bee172
Pretty much a regular
Whatcha got tonight Sir?
LeRinkRat
Pretty much a regular
LIKE the Hurricanes but NOT the -3 1/2 line. gonna just watch. opening line @ Wynn Las Vegas Memphis -3 1/2 @ Navy and @ Houston -4 vs Arizona look interesting. NO opening line yet @ Hawaii vs Rice. @ UNLV -24 vs UTEP maybe "too beaucoup" :shake:
Troy disagrees lol i think home field adv is dumb Miami just not bueno
LeRinkRat
Pretty much a regular
YES!!! the true-true. at the Cowboy's stadium in Arlington. shows just how much attention "Papa Ratte" paid to the game
opcorn:
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
VT 50 to win 125
Admittedly worried about this back 7 on Hokie D. But otherwise feel ok on this. Think VT O should be ok. FSU has loads of talent and will be back sooner than later, but week 1 game with some new coaches and and all vs a traditionally solid VT team...I think this is worth a shot. Also talked to some people at a party and they all just said FSU and couldn't explain anything on why. Not that their lack of conviction matters in the game, but my point there is FSU just seems too easy. Why not VT? They are going to want this just as bad. Hopefully Foster coached his ass off to mask the deficiencies at LB and DB. Seems to be favorable odds and spread for this one to me.
Admittedly worried about this back 7 on Hokie D. But otherwise feel ok on this. Think VT O should be ok. FSU has loads of talent and will be back sooner than later, but week 1 game with some new coaches and and all vs a traditionally solid VT team...I think this is worth a shot. Also talked to some people at a party and they all just said FSU and couldn't explain anything on why. Not that their lack of conviction matters in the game, but my point there is FSU just seems too easy. Why not VT? They are going to want this just as bad. Hopefully Foster coached his ass off to mask the deficiencies at LB and DB. Seems to be favorable odds and spread for this one to me.
