WEEEK 16 - JAGS WIN???

[mrpickem]

​	Week 15 - [18-10 +16.05u]​
	451 Minnesota Vikings +6½ -102 vs New Orleans Saints 2/1.96 451 Minnesota Vikings/New Orleans Saints Over 51 -101 3/2.97

Is SDQL history all NFL games played on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day lined over 3 point spread have topped the total over 62% even after the L5 have stayed under



also of note... 61.3% of the overs have cashed in non-divisional regular season games with totals >=50 since 2012

 

[B.A.R.]

Dear lord

 

[2daBank]

Wowzer, merry freaking Xmas to whoever woke up next to her!!! you really stepped your game up on that one pal!

feels like it about time bears fall on their faces doesn’t it? Montgomery been a whole new guy the last month, Nagy been a whole new coach getting him touches!! Heard some podcast bring up a pretty interesting point about how trubisky had basically stopped running (which something we had previously noticed) but last week he ran it 8x which was easily a season high. Could be he sees the end his contract in sight and gonna go balls to the wall in hopes of landing another contract!

that said I played jags with the points. Probably smart to fade me since my record with bears is abysmal, don’t think I’ve gotten one their games right all year! Lol

 

[C-MAN]

wow. I would play whatever she recommends.

 

[mrpickem]

​

1-1 Friday but did hit the larger play​

457 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -11 -105 vs Detroit Lions 3/2.86 457 Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Detroit Lions Over 55 -108 3/2.76 459 San Francisco 49ers +6 -105 vs Arizona Cardinals 3/2.86 461 Miami Dolphins -2½ -104 vs Las Vegas Raiders 3/2.89 461 Miami Dolphins -128 vs Las Vegas Raiders 3/2.353 Miami Dolphins -128 ...Dolphins are in a must win scenario for the rest of the year. The Raiders technically are too, but they're not likely making the playoffs. Derek Carr is playing and the Dolphins D is better against less mobile QBs, which Carr is in comparison to Mariota. I have become a believer in the fish and I do believe they will be a tough out in the playoffs. Oakland has done the opposite as they started the year great what with adding some weapons on offense and Waller's emergence...but then things have spiralled downward lately and they appear also rans at this point. Oakland likely loses the turnover battle and this game may not even be close. I played both line and ML and I am really surprised with the movement over the last 2 days, but it will not deter my play.

 

[SIGO]

Dear lord

This.

 

[mrpickem]

This is how it's done boys :rubbingin:

 

[mrpickem]

​

SATURDAY - [3-2 +2.08u] WEEK 16 - [5-3 +4.04u]​

455 Cleveland Browns -6½ -104 vs New York Jets 2/1.93 465 Indianapolis Colts +110 vs Pittsburgh Steelers 2/2.2 469 Carolina Panthers +1 -105 vs Washington Football Team 3/2.86 469 Carolina Panthers/Washington Football Team Over 41½ -107 3/2.8 471 New York Giants +10 -108 vs Baltimore Ravens 3/2.78 473 Atlanta Falcons/Kansas City Chiefs Over 53 -102 3/2.94 475 Los Angeles Rams +1½ -109 vs Seattle Seahawks 3/2.75 477 Philadelphia Eagles -3 +100 vs Dallas Cowboys 3/3 479 Tennessee Titans +3 -102 vs Green Bay Packers 3/2.94 479 Tennessee Titans/Green Bay Packers Over 53½ -107 3/2.83

some random bullshit...

• Browns -6½ ...Browns are currently playing better football than the Rams. Mayfield has been a top QB over the L4 weeks, averaging 308 ypg with 10 TD’s. The passing game isn’t even the Browns’ strength! Chubb and Kareem Hunt tag teaming the Jets D may make the -7 look like a Vegas mistake. CLE has won 5 of L6, with their only loss vs Baltimore. A win today won’t clinch the division, but they do still have a shot to win the AFC North with a win against the Steelers next week. For that game to matter, they have to win against the Jets today. Even with several players out today due to CIVID including most of their WR core, they should still smash the
  
  Jets with Chubb, Hunt, and Austin Hooper.
• Rams +1½ ...They matchup well with SEA as they have beat them 5 of the L6 with the lone loss coming by one point last year. The Rams are coming off an embarrassing defeat last week vs the Jets but they have won after each of their first 4 losses this year and done so by an avg >= 10 points. LA are solid with no real weakness coming in ranked in the top 7 in offensive and defensive DVOA on the season. SEA has been overrated the past couple of months as they have only covered 3 of 10. Not a good defensive team though it looks like it's improved but keep in mind their last four opposing quarterbacks they have faced have been Dwayne Haskins, Sam Darnold, Colt McCoy and Carson Wentz. They have went up against only one other top 10 offense this year and they gave up 44 points to Buffalo in a 10 point loss.
• Colts +110 ...Two teams heading into different directions. The Colts offense has awoke with the help of rookie Johnathan Taylor, going from scoring 28.5 ppg to 32.3 ppg in their last 3. You also have a defense that gives up 22.9 points per game and avg scoring margin has went from +5.6 to +10 in their last 3. Overall, they have just been playing complementary football. On the other hand, you have the dysfunctional Steelers and their bad Juju situation. The Steelers went from scoring 26.1 ppg to 16.3 in their last 3. Their defense has also went from giving up 18.9 ppg to 25.3 ppg. On top of this, their average scoring margin has went from +7.3 to -9 in their last 3. Both teams need this win in order to help their playoff case but with the opposite tracks these teams are running on I'm inclined to back Indy.

Road conference dogs under 6 points have killed it this year at 65% ATS and have stayed hot in DEC at 5-2 ATS. I'm holding out for 3 points on DEN but already hit other 2 today.

 

[C-MAN]

Nice middle! I did the same in the liberty/cc game. Cashed on liberty +7 and Cc +4.5. Feels good when things work out the way they’re supposed to!

 

[C-MAN]

Well hello there

 

[mrpickem]

​	adds​
	453 Denver Broncos +2½ -105 vs Los Angeles Chargers 2.1/2 453 Denver Broncos +120 vs Los Angeles Chargers .9/1.08

:cheers3:​

 

[mrpickem]

​	Brutal day yesterday...hoping for better today :cokeline:​
	481 Buffalo Bills -7 -110 vs New England Patriots 3.3/3 481 Buffalo Bills/New England Patriots Under 47 -108 3.24/3

Divisional chalk over 6 has cashed 60% in Prime Time last 17 years, but 6-9 last 2 years...time to right the ship