Wednesday please demote Caminero Discussion

GWarner27

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
that guy has pitched in like 4 career games and has lost me bets in two of them...

grabbed CHW u7.5

leans from the BOL open:
StL +119
MIL u7 -105: Barber
CHW +108: Bellino
BAL -101 (now +109)/o8.5
OAK -102: Muchlinski

on the radar:
StL u7 +100
LAD -120
ARI -136
 
+12.128 into 4/21
4/21:
MLB Season:


4/22

Mia +123
Bal +109
Was -120
A's -102
Bos -107
SD -123
LAD -120

0.5u each - bet 0.5u on dogs, bet to win 0.5u on favs
 
Good card.

Definitely eyeing Boston. That tb pitcher allows a lot of baserunners.
 
Not thrilled with Kelly on 4 days but he's the ace of this staff imo, and more of a Bo Sox bats vs Karns play..exactly Gabe :shake:
 
  • Under is 13-0-1 in Weavers last 14 home starts vs. Athletics.
  • Under is 21-4-3 in Weavers last 28 starts vs. Athletics.
 
Kluber good vs CWS

Hammel not good on 4 days rest

Shields great Mar/Apr, 2-0 2.08 vs Col '14

Love Bradley but, Gallardo 5-0 1.93 @ Chase

Kershaw 3-0 1.69 vs SF '14, 8-2 0.83 @ At&t
 
Stl 0-5 L5 Lackey road starts, Lackey on 5 days 11 starts '14 5.00 vs 15 starts on 4 days 3.60

Fister great Mar/Apr, 5 days rest went 8-1 1.78 on 5 days in '14, 9-3 1.97 in DC
Was 10-2 L12 Fister home starts
 
Phi hasn't seen Cosart , Mia has seen plenty of Cole Hamels

Hamels run support L8 overall: 2,3,0,1,0,5,3,2
Hamels run support home starts L13: 3,0,1,3,4,4,1,2,3,5,3,3,2
 
Gabe said:
Wonder what Giants team total will be tomorrow?
Click to expand...

Back on July 31, 2013, I cashed the Yankees' team total over 2.5 when they were in LA facing Kershaw. They won the game 3-0. All three runs came in the top of the ninth inning versus Bellasario and Paco Rodriguez (after Kershaw went 8 scoreless). What made it even better was that two of the three runs were unearned. Mark Ellis dropped a two-out pop fly that helped cash the second and third runs.

I'm guessing 2.5.
 
22-13 +5.13 units via 0.5 unit wagers. .
All wagers posted on twitter.

Two dogs.


Braves +132
Gee has been absolutely terrible thus far. Value at this price. Mets still very banged up

Astros +148
Better bp, equal pitcher. Ja happ should never be this big of fave
 
Gabe said:
22-13 +5.13 units via 0.5 unit wagers. .
All wagers posted on twitter.

Two dogs.


Braves +132
Gee has been absolutely terrible thus far. Value at this price. Mets still very banged up

Astros +148
Better bp, equal pitcher. Ja happ should never be this big of fave
Click to expand...

i havnt had a chance to watch gee this year but his peripherals much better than his surface stats. anything to it? not great vs lefties over career, .770ish ops and i know braves will have bunch of lefties in lineup.

no wright def hurts mets vs stultz, i think you on right side but muts smoking and i gotta love a play to fade team that hot. my only real holdup is gee peripherals telling a different story thus far.

majority of atl lines have moved against them going back thru at least the tor series and did slightly yesterday. think ill wait and see on number but id most likely either be with you or pass, would like to hear your thoughts on whether gee is capable of better as some things suggest?
 
got different assumptions on pitchers making first carreer start @home: DO they pitch worse due to extra pressure to do well? or do their motivation and focus make them pitch better than their future career average? Anyone has got stats on this over let's say past 5 seasons?
 
like O7 in PIT-CHC: L6 meetings have seen 7 or more runs, Worley: 1,53 WHIP on 4 days rest allowing 5 runs in 2 meetings vs CHC last year, hamel not good also on 4 days and allowing 2,5 Runs in avg over last 4 starts vs PIT +" Over umpire with Morales going 20-8 O/U last year". Over is 8-1 last 9 games officiated by morales
 
edou1x said:
like O7 in PIT-CHC: L6 meetings have seen 7 or more runs, Worley: 1,53 WHIP on 4 days rest allowing 5 runs in 2 meetings vs CHC last year, hamel not good also on 4 days and allowing 2,5 Runs in avg over last 4 starts vs PIT +" Over umpire with Morales going 20-8 O/U last year". Over is 8-1 last 9 games officiated by morales
Click to expand...

played the ov 7 myself.
 
NYY O3,5 TT: david price due to letdown, allowed 14 runs@home last seasons vs yankees and 19 runs last 5 meetings vs NYY and only 1 run in 3 starts this season
 
What the hell is going on this card today? totals seems pretty low, expecting over slaughters today.. what about a stult biorythm trouble in march/april with 1,50 WHIP and an interesting 1,60 WHIP on 6 days rest? just forgot the other dilon gee dick and his 4,92 night ERA, his 1,48 WHIP on 5 days, his 5 Runs allowed vs ATL this season.
Just to make sure The over is in the bag Chris segal is a deadly 18-7 O/U in 2014 with 10 runs averaged. stults and Gee in for a very very long night to my mind
 
mia is going to win another game this year....right?

will be on nats in some form....they are starting to get it going and lackey inconsistent

cueto superior....mil can't buy a win

sd playing well but the thin air always causes pause

kershaw in better form than bumgarner

kluber /samargi no wins yet...kluber awesome....samargi pretty good also but slow start to the year

not a jiminez fan but he has been very good so far

will be on price in some form

sox with better pitcher...shocker...still they struggle in tb... i may be on them somehow as they find ways to win and tb not as good as some think
 
edou1x said:
What the hell is going on this card today? totals seems pretty low, expecting over slaughters today.. what about a stult biorythm trouble in march/april with 1,50 WHIP and an interesting 1,60 WHIP on 6 days rest? just forgot the other dilon gee dick and his 4,92 night ERA, his 1,48 WHIP on 5 days, his 5 Runs allowed vs ATL this season.
Just to make sure The over is in the bag Chris segal is a deadly 18-7 O/U in 2014 with 10 runs averaged. stults and Gee in for a very very long night to my mind
Click to expand...
agree on the mets over, pretty low and I think they have forgotten the fences moving in again.
 
2dabank,

Gee is definitely capable of better but he's a typical avg SP.
He has been bad this season 5.61 FIP.

baseball imo is about value. I feel getting +132 odds against a struggling avg Sp and banged up team presents value.
 
updated leans:
CHW +105: Bellino
BAL +102: DiMuro
OAK -108: Muchlinski
SF +123: Fagan
ARI -110: Everitt

on the radar:
StL +100/u7 +100: Wolf
MIL u7 -125: Barber
BAL o9 -120: DiMuro
 
Min 4-9 L13 Pelfrey starts, 1-5 in his L6 road starts, he has a 9.72 era in 2 career starts @ Kaufman, not good on 4 days rest either
 
STULTS is 39-27 (+18.3 Units) against the money line in night games in his career. (Team's Record)
 
Gabe said:
2dabank,

Gee is definitely capable of better but he's a typical avg SP.
He has been bad this season 5.61 FIP.

baseball imo is about value. I feel getting +132 odds against a struggling avg Sp and banged up team presents value.
Click to expand...

i agree and made a small play on bravos as well..line started moving against me so settled for +129..
 
A's
8-8 SU in Samardzija starts so far.
6-1 SU and 7-0 to the over when they score five or more runs in Samardzija starts.
2-7 SU and 2-6-1 to the under when they score less than 5 runs in Samardzija starts.


Fuck me, dude plays for CWS now. I am an idiot..
 
Last edited:
Gabe said:
22-13 +5.13 units via 0.5 unit wagers. .
All wagers posted on twitter.

Two dogs.


Braves +132
Gee has been absolutely terrible thus far. Value at this price. Mets still very banged up

Astros +148
Better bp, equal pitcher. Ja happ should never be this big of fave
Click to expand...
good job yesterday man, GL today.
 
4/22 @Mets lineup vs ATL
Mayberry Jr. RF
Lagares CF
Duda 1B
Cuddyer LF
Campbell 3B
Plawecki C
Flores SS
Tejada 2B
Gee P


Like Braves even more now
 
MLB Season: +11.208u


4/22

Mia +123
Bal +109
Was -120
A's -102
Bos -107
SD -123
LAD -120
Atl +130
KC o4.5 -130
KC RL +130
Cle/u7.5 parlay +237

0.5u each - bet 0.5u on dogs, bet to win 0.5u on favs
 
edou1x said:
got different assumptions on pitchers making first carreer start @home: DO they pitch worse due to extra pressure to do well? or do their motivation and focus make them pitch better than their future career average? Anyone has got stats on this over let's say past 5 seasons?
Click to expand...

not sure anything can make you more motivated/focused than a first career start
 
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