Wednesday Oct 31

SF_capper

SF_capper

CTG addict
Plays:...
Indiana +3 (-105)- 6 units :tiphat:
Indi/Wash OVER 205.5- 1 unit:tiphat:
1st H OVER 100 (-120)- 2 units :hang:
1st H Toronto -4 (-120)- 1 unit:tiphat:
Orlando -7- 4 units:tiphat:
Nets -2.5- 3 units:tiphat:
Dallas -2.5- 3 units:tiphat:
Dallas/Cle UNDER 183.5- 2 units:tiphat:
Memphis +6.5 (+100)- 3 units:tiphat:
2nd H NO/Sac UNDER 94 (-120)- 2 units:hang:
1st H Denver -6.5 (120)- 4 units :hang:
1st H Den/Sea OVER 110.5 (-120)- 4 units :tiphat:
Denver -11.5- 2 units :tiphat:
Den/Sea OVER 117- 2 units:tiphat:
2nd H Denver -7 (-120)- 4 units:tiphat:
2nd H Denver/Sea OVER 107.5 (-120)- 4 units:hang:


ytd
4-2
+6.4 units

get this up early

Philadelphia Sixers +6.5 @ Toronto Raptors

don't feel Philly did enough in the off-season. I mean I do expect better things, as Iguodala will have a great yr, Carney and Louis Williams impressed me when I watched them play, but they aren't "there" yet, just as Willie Green is not starting SG material. He's much better as a role player off the bench. i HATE Reggie Evans for no reason other than the fact that he just is not very good. Not sure if Dalembert is in. If I can get info on Dalembert's status, that would be big, but you cannot replace Joe Smith with Reggie Evans. It destoys their defensive presence down low that they had last yr.
Toronto I feel they have a great yr. Not sure of Bosh's status (100%?). I feel Bargnini and Bosh down low will be too much, esp if Dalembert is out. Jason Smith is not impressive defensively and you know what I feel of Reggie Evans. Toronto ended the preseason running the two last games off the court- I think like 30 pt wins. Although it is just preseason, momentum is momentum. I feel pretty good about Toronto with big spreads as they have that run it up type of offense that can get on a roll and build up 8-0 runs quickly.
lean Toronto
Prediction: Toronto 105-95



Milwaukee Bucks +7 @ Orlando Magic
I will be betting on Orlando early and often this yr. I like what they did in the off-season (although I feel Rashard is a bit overrated, it is still an upgrade talent wise) Dwight's shot (semi-mid range, and FT) has improved, and Van Gundy has this team shooting a lot more three pointers this yr. Although not good for all teams, I think the peices are good for it. (2 pretty good PGs in Nelson- who I have big expectations for this yr- and Arroyo) and a nice inside presence that will DEMAND double teams in Dwight. seriously- I expect HUGE things for Dwight this yr as he has improved every yr thus far and is physically just too much for pretty much anyone in the league. All he needed was 1-2 go to moves besides just dunking it, and I think he got it + a little duncan-esqu faceup shot. They got the shooters in Rashard, Hedo, Reddick, and Garrity.
Milwaukee has not impressed me in any way at all. Outside of Redd, I can't name a consistent offensive player on that team. Yi is NOT near developed yet (this coming from a Chinese guy), and Bogut is still developing- esp on the defensive end. They don't have reliable rebounding as I feel they just don't have the toughness down low. I feel they'll be incredibly inconsistent, relying on the outside of Bell, Redd, and Williams.

For this game, I feel Dwight will show off as hell. a home opener against this interior defense I see a rout. Andrew Bogut not even 100% guarding Dwight Howard?
gonna play Orlando with my local- probably at a bad line
Prediction: Orlando 110-95
-that being generous
 
Last edited:
Chicago Bulls +3 @ New Jersey Nets

Chicago without Noah, Tyrus, and Ben Wallace I believe. Deng and Gordon played I think 1 game together in the preseason. I like the Bulls this yr as I feel they got depth, and the pieces to make runs, but in this game the inside will be uhh Joe Smith and rookie Aaron Gray. Beyond that, I don't know. I would prefer they be going up against a team with a better downlow offense, but Nenad I guess is enough. Also, the help D is much weaker, esp having the guard the slashes of the big 3. New Jersey should also have a good yr. I usually struggle with NJ over/unders, as they can play a slow ass defnesive game, or get on the run with their big 3. I'm leaning on NJ taking advantage of the lack of depth on the Bulls downlow that night. Kidd had a nice comeback game in the preseason. Also lean to the over, as The Bulls will actually start 5 potential scorers..
Prediction: Nets 103- 96
I think we see a small over/under

looks like I'm liking a lot of chalk early on..
 
Washington -2 @ Indiana

I think we see our first sucker bet 2m. Public favorite Washington, imo had a bad off-season. They kept the same pieces, but drafted Nick Young... are you kidding? wtf you need another guard for? They're quickly becoming last year's NYK. They have seriously struggled in the preseason, and altbhough its tough to put much stock into preseason bball, I think you should at least rbing it for 1 game, which they did not. If J'Oneal was in, I'd expect Indiana to slaughter..
Indiana had a great preseason and showed their new selves scoring and running it up. Murphy and J O'neal are out, but I expect them to be preety good this year. shit, they scored 140 points in their last preseason game. Diogu some1 from the Warriors that I thought had a lot of raw talent- showed it. This team is full of underrated role players, and with JO'neal in, should do well. Jeff Foster isst on the beaast on the boards, Tinsley has a game imo similiar to Andre Miller, Dunleavy went from overrated to underrated as he is reliable to be a bit above average. Danny Granger will get himself known this yr as I put him similiar to Martel Webster, and Marquis Daniels it seems people have forgotten about him. That dude was fighting with all-star Josh Howard for minutes just 2 years ago.

I wish Oneal was in to embarass this Washington post D, but there will be many opporunities all yr. However, I feel Diogu will be able to do it. Washington is and will be a great fade on the road all yr. 88% so far on Washington, and if this one gets the 4, it should be a fantastic bet, as I see Indiana doing it up. More of a poor preseason team versus a pretty good one which should carry into the year. Would like the over, but I'm not sure I can count on Washington to score. Lean Indiana and tiny lean to over
Prediction: Indiana 106-101
 
Dallas -4 @ Cleveland

Dallas seems too easy. Howard out tho, but so is Pavlovic and Varajao. Cleveland will probably struggle early this yr, and I expect Dallas to come out firing. Cleveland will always have a chance in game with LBJ, and its always scary betting against him, and sometimes 1 man can beat a whole team (detroit). I think both teams' stock are low, and is more of a how will they respond. I think Dallas (without looking at their schedule) will come out hard to make people talk about them often. No Dampier might hurt them. Players wise, with the players out, over seems like a nice play. Varajeo and Dampier are slow the game up type players, and to replace Howard, I'm guessing Stackhouse comes in which should also help the over. Lean Dallas here, but scared cuz w/o Howard I don't know who guards Lebron..
Prediction: Dallas 98-90

San Antonio -7 @ Memphis

San Antonio is horrible off back to backs historically, and since they know it, they might try to start the yr right. They still looked sharp as always yesterday, and I feel this game goes similiar to todays game with Portland. Memphis is a young running team similiar to Portland, but not quite as scrappy. Pau is probable, and Memphis has the pieces to have a decent yr. Stoudamire, Kinsey, Lowry, and Conley in the backcourt, Rudy Yag, Mike Miller, Pau, Stromile, Warrick and Milicic in the front is pretty deep at every position. They'll likely play a few 2 PG sets, a d try to run on the old SA team, like how Portland did. Memphis plays much better team offense than Portland. Lean Memphis and the over again
Prediction: San Antonio 105-102
 
Sacramento +10 @ New Orleans

this game says no bet. Bibby and Artest out for an already bad team. David West out. Cannot lay DD with N.O on DD. I expect NO to win but not sure by how many. The under is probably the play with the scorers out. CP3 should have a great yr, esp with Peja back in, but I hated their draft. didn't really help them. Might play NO 1st H just to see what they got, since I don't see how Sac can score. Martins prolly good for 25.... then what. Miller will be guarded by Tyson.
Prediction: New Orleans 95- 85

Seattle +10.5 @ Denver

Seattle will be a bad bad team his yr. BAD. They will find incredible ways to lose games from lack of experience and leadership. They'll allow a shit load of points, and try to make up for their lack of experience and half court leadership/manaement by running it up and down. Denver will be similiar to last yr save for 1 point- KMART. he's back and looked good i nthe preseason. Denver will just run the score up on Seattle, and I kinda wish Durant was not in so I could hit the over even better as he'll prolly shoot like 6-20 2m. either way, there'll be way too much for Seattle to handle as their lack of any serious defense will show. Lean Denver 1st H, Denver, 1st H over, over- (and will likely play all of them)
Prediction: Denver 121- 104
 
abcs said:
Your a machine
Click to expand...


:cheers:

money makin. ha prolly gonnna play the whole card 2m. I'll prolly be like this for around a month, until I feel the lines are adjusted correctly. I feel right now the lines reflect too much on last yr's performances, but we all know that offseason changes are key. even preseason is pretty important (Mr. preseason at one point 10-0) Typical bettors don't even look at preseason scores or offseason small changes. look at day 1- the outcomes were pretty predictable:

Portland has been good in the preseason and we all know they'll run more this yr
san antonio just won a championship- letdown
result: portland ATS and over

GSW were without JRICH and SJAX. They lost to utah cuz they couldn't rebound. and thewy start Pietrus at PF?
result: Utah rolled

Lakeshow has had drama and distractions
Houston is working on a new system
Result: UNDER, and the spread was right on (opening line, before public perception pushed it)
 
wow

"We're not going to promise anything to fans, but we're going to play hard and make them proud of how we play on the court," team president Billy King said.

also take into account that Iguadala needs to get signed by tonight- distraction...
Graham is an underrated defender that will do an aight job holding him down

like toronto
 
They're in

Indiana +3 (-105)- 6 units
Indi/Wash OVER 205.5- 1 unit
1st H OVER 100 (-120)- 2 units
1st H Toronto -4 (-120)- 1 unit
Orlando -7- 4 units
 
1st H Denver -6.5 (120)- 4 units
1st H Den/Sea OVER 110.5 (-120)- 4 units
Denver -11.5- 2 units
Den/Sea OVER 117- 2 units
 
forget it go big baby, playin with bookies chane today.

abcs.. you know it

Throw and ATL :cheers:

2nd H Denver -7 (-120)- 4 units
2nd H Denver/Seattle OVER 107.5 (-120)- 4 units
 
B.A.R. said:
You crazy..

great thread though..thx for the write-ups
Click to expand...

heh thanks. I'll decrease the number of bets after a month or so, but right now after all the reading/research I did over the offseason, I feel I know the teams WAY more than an average bettor and can spot value

made both 2nd Hs 4 unit plays. semiwriteups in the in-game thread
 
gettin in your local's ass from the get go (nice job this preseason). if i were dude I'd cut my losses and move on to another client
 
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