Wednesday, November 1st Thoughts and Analysis Thread




B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Tuesday night was a mixture of ups and downs during game 2 but ended up only losing the hedge on Lakers totals...so 7-1 night overall and up 4.18 units

22-6-1 +10.36 units overall


Alright, obviously its five days before these games get going but the lines are popping up on the Pinnacle screen as we speak. This will be a huge board and we want to get the early season thoughts generated in the days leading up to it.

I have one play for now. Others(if any) will be posted as the next few dasy unwind. Please leave any thoughts and recommendations in here. Best of luck..lets roll...


Detroit vs Milwaukee

I knew what I was going to be playing in this game if the number was right about a week ago. Talked to Copps guy about his Bucks last night quite a bit. We were also line predicting. He was guessin 10-194. I was guessin 8-194. Well, its 7.5-190. Wow, thats great news indeed to me.

Lets talk Bucks first. They lost TJ Ford but gained Charlie V instead. TJ could push the ball and set up but was such a liabilty at PG defensively. Nice kid, great heart but he needs big bodies behind him to mask his flaws. Charlie V is no stalwart defensively but he can score as evidenced by his huge 50 point game late last season. Mike Redd is still the focus for the Bucks. I am sure he will have a few things on his mind after last years playoff series. Him and Rip are good buddies but Redd was kinda pissed with the defensive tactics. He will find the going a bit easier against Detroit now and he usually torches us during regular season games. Bogut has a boo-boo and this Milwaukke defense is horrid. I am sure Coppsguy will back me up here as he said watching the Bobcats-Bucks last night they looked horrid.

Detroit will take on a semi-different identity this season. Ben was against anything Flip wanted to do with this team. While they did core a lot more last season during the regular season it didn't work during the playoffs. Ben, as the leader, wasn't going to allow change and it hurt them quite a bit. Flip is an excellent offensive coach. I think we'll see plenty of motion and a lot more running than in years past. Guess what else? With Body gone, when the offense breaks down we have a low-post guy in Nazr who can actually makes plays. Nazr looked very good offensively in the preseason. Dice will receiev more minutes as well for the Stons. Add in Maxiell who was awesome in preseason and the frontcourt isn't as bad off as some would think. I think its more suited for the way the NBA is heading(Stern style). Delfino is starting to finally show his potential and Flip Murray has been a suprise to myself. I have never been a fan of his but he showed team play and PG skills in the preseason. Thats huge for a team that lacked depth last season.

As for this game--We are going to see an uptempo affair IMO and a lot of points. The Rip-Redd matchup should be awesome and I think their will be plenty of shot attempts both ways. No way Detroit doesn't get 100 here against this sad-sack defense. I also think Milwaukee will be quite successful as well. Detroit will take time to gel defensively without Body in the middle.

I love this play and got it 4 points less than I thought I would. Huge play on it..

Detroit-Milwaukee OVER 190 -105 (3units)

More to come...
 
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Good shit yo... Bout to check shit out right now, some nice lines here
 
Theres a few interesting ones for sure. Gonna dive into the rest after Tigers game.
 
Based on the scores from last year not seeing value with the points in the Clipper Suns game but certainly thinking ML. Suns running into b-b playoff revenge teams and Clippers clearly a serious upgrade this year.
 
I guessed about 193. I like it the play. Milwaukee STILL lacks defense. Plus Detroit wont be slowed by Wallace, not to mention his 45% FT's. Im guessing a 104-95 Detroit score.
 
BAR what you think about a few of these...

Nets -5.5
Bulls/Magic UND 187.5
Knicks ML
Pistons -7.5

To me... the Nets are going to be very sharp to start the season... I think the Raps will eventually gel well... but have too many IF's right now. Remember, Mike James carried this team. Replacing his offense will not be easy and I think the goal of this team is still growth and the future...

Dwight Howard, Ben Wallace... limited true scorers on the court outside of Gordan... I think the Bulls on the back end of the B2B will play a much slower pace...

See value in the Knicks here... Grizz without Gasol... led by who? No Gasol, Bobby Jackson, Battier... replacing all that with Yag? Knicks could come out better than people think.. if anything I don't think they'll quit on Isiah before the season starts.

7.5 may be a bit much... and probably will just play your OVER instead
 
I see Value in Knicks as well Spek. Zeke is a solid coach and I think they will be good ats for awhile to start season.

I agree that Joisey will be hitting on all cylinders starting the season. I expect a huge start from them.
 
i cant wait!! i dont know much about the nba (only played post season last year and thats it) but im really looking forward to getting into it!

still cant get into cfb and im done tailing so cbb nba and nfl is a good mix imo.
 
That Nets game is tough for me. I agree Nets true powerhouse this year and Toronto a good but young team that should not be able to cover. Next game for Nets is Miami! NBA champs who have knocked Nets out of the playoffs last 2 years. This bothers me some. Very interested in more opinons here.
 
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tuck321 said:
That Nets game is tough for me. I agree Nets true powerhouse this year and Toronto a good but young team that should not be able to cover. Next game for Nets is Miami! NBA champs who have knocked Nets out of the payoffs last 2 years. This bothers me some. Very interested in more opinons here.
Click to expand...

Excellent point on a look ahead. First game of season..does it matter as much? Thats what we need to find out.

I believe that Milwaukke went into NJ last year in opener and took it too Nets as huge dogs. I wanna say Redd had 41 that game.
 
Milwakee to me was a much more polished team... the Nets were playing their 1st game with a healthy RJ in a long long time... and now he's truly 100% healthy... as I believe it takes a year to recover from that.

Raps will be ironing out alot of kinks in this game... new PG, new #1 pick, new center in Rasho. Mike James CARRIED this squad... can anyone else go for 30 on this team?
 
Inspekdah, Nets can win and cover. I seriously agree but the James angle is not much. Picking up Fred Jones, Humphries and Nestorvic has made this a much better team and they still are excellent at point guard. The real swing for Nets is that they are better and have played together so much while Toronto is still putting the pieces together. This is also true of Utah who may struggle somewhat first 10 games but then will be extremely tough. James---not up to figuring him on Minn out. GL
 
Inspekdah said:
Mike James CARRIED this squad... can anyone else go for 30 on this team?
Click to expand...

Did you ever hear of a player on the Raptors that wears #4?
 
We must be thinking of different Mike James. The Mike James I know averaged 20 points by being an absolute chucker...

Toronto is definitely improved over last year.
 
B.A.R. said:
Excellent point on a look ahead. First game of season..does it matter as much? Thats what we need to find out.

I believe that Milwaukke went into NJ last year in opener and took it too Nets as huge dogs. I wanna say Redd had 41 that game.
Click to expand...


Bucks won back-to-back road games to start the season last year. Philly in OT and Jersey. Bogut is cleared to go. Yes Ford is gone, but Mo Williams pushes the ball almost as good, but can shoot (and make) 3's. No Simmons which means a healthy dose of Charlie V, Rueben Patterson, and David Noel at SF.

GL Wed night BAR, im waiting (like a girl) till Thursday or Friday to start betting NBA.
 
Good stuff fellas.

I have another game I love for Wednesday. I was hoping the line would budge somewhat but it hasn't moved a cent in 3 days. Crazy. I will play it tonight, especially if it starts to move. Also some leans towards CHA,NYK and NJN tomorow night.

The Clippers will be a play as well. Want to watch at least a half of Suns-Lakers before I make final decision.
 
Seabass I agree that the Raps team is improved. However, losing Charlie V and James and replacing them with Ford.. will take time to see the benefits. They are even more younger and are going to try to push an uptempo game... I just see it needing some time.. and the team will rely on the 3.. and now Mo Pete is their only quality marksman. Don't see Fred Jones lighting up the Nets for instance and Ford will create opportunities... but for who? Bosh plays away from the basket and Rasho while an upgrade is far from being able to produce anything offensively.
 
Like the Under tonight with Chicago & Miami BAR. I was hoping to get a nice number like you have on the side, but thats not gonna happen. Looks like a solid night for you. Best of luck this season. I always enjoyed your posts last year on Covers and look forward to your angles this year!

Last year, especially in the playoffs, I killed 1st quarter lines. Pinny does nbot have them up yet, hopefully they will. I see Miami starting quick and fading later. Love to hear your thoughts...
 
smo1a said:
Like the Under tonight with Chicago & Miami BAR. I was hoping to get a nice number like you have on the side, but thats not gonna happen. Looks like a solid night for you. Best of luck this season. I always enjoyed your posts last year on Covers and look forward to your angles this year!

Last year, especially in the playoffs, I killed 1st quarter lines. Pinny does nbot have them up yet, hopefully they will. I see Miami starting quick and fading later. Love to hear your thoughts...
Click to expand...

I can see that as far as Miami is concerned but I also think and have seen more times than naught the after-ring cermony takes effect. It can either fire up a team or they treat the game secondary.
 
I do like Orlando tomorrow night. I like them all year in fact. I'll prolly decide my play on that game sometime during the games tonight.
 
B.A.R, you might want to look into the Boston vs. New Orleans Total tomorrow....as I posted in my thread I expect Boston to be running a very uptempo type game and reaching 100 points, which in turn would mean New Orleans would have to make some baskets to put the game over. I'll be looking into this game further and talking to a few friends back home that have been to all the Celtic practices and scrimmages and see what they think about the team. I'll just need some insight on New Orleans before I decide on the C's spread or the over/under

Also, I know you're lovin the Wizards +5...especially after that series last year (which we both should have cashed on if it wasn't for LeGod getting every call)...but I'm sure you'll discuss that later in this thread. Peace
 
Bulls historically havent been a bad B2B team. I'd watch the minutes of the starters tonight closely... a deep enough team here that the back end of a double header isn't worth fading alone... I'd tread carefully and hopefully a Bulls win will get your better value tomorrow.. a close loss and I think they'll bounce back strong and I'll POUND the under.
 
Is Yao Ming out tomorrow? Huge reverse line movement there with public all over Rockets... sort of like Utah in this spot.
 
Wow...talk about a spot setting up...

Bulls look like absolute world beaters and now get a terrible spot in the B2B...

Pinny has it off the board now...

I'm going to hit ORL when it pops back up...
 
Washington @ Cleveland

Alright, last seasons epic 6 game series leads to a very nice spot for us tonight. Last years playoff series had it all. Superstars playing at amazing levels, buzzer beaters and crooked refs. No doubt the last point has been in one teams head all off-season.

The Washington Wizards I think are one of the most undervalued teams this season. The posted 38.5 total wins is a joke and I already played the OVER for season wins at Pinnacle. Thats pretty much saying this team is going to take a major step back. What has changed? They have added a bit of size and hustle(Songalia) and a solid perimeter defender(Stevenson). Add that to the maturing games of Arenas and Caron Butler and I like this nucleus a lot. Never known to be a defensive powerhouse, the Wizards can at least compete up front nowadays. A solid rotation of Etan Thomas, Brendan Haywood and Darius Songalia is an upgrade.

The players that are back haven't lost anything. I expect a MVP caliber year outta Gilberts A Penis. No doubt about it. The playoff series last year plus the Olympic incident/snub has him fueled up for the season. This guy plays well with grudges it seems and he's got big ones he wants to get off his shoulders. Antwan Jamison is now conidered one of those consistent pros. He is going to get his 19 and 8 and do it pretty efficiently. He also causes mathcup problems. Caron Butler looked great in the two preseason games I watched him in. He was shooting the rock well and I think he will have a huge season. With much attention on Arenas, his numbers should skyrocket.

The Cavs return basically intact. Love the hustle man Varejo up front. Like the addition of Michigan Stater Shannon Brown down the line. Thats about all I like other than Bron. Drew Gooden is too inconsistent and Big Z is always a play away from being out for 60 games. I know that many of us agree that Larry Hughes is not a good fit for that team. His skills do not complement those of James that well. Basically, this team will go as far as James(and D. Stern) let them.

For this ballgame on Wednesday night, I think we can look for a few things...

-LeBron having a huge game and the ESPN crew going ga-ga
-Gilbert to have 35-45 points
-The Wizards to play like a possessed team

Honestly, it was sad what happened to the Wizards last year. They had at least one game and maybe 2 stolen from them. The NBA is a business and they do what they have to do to please the fans. Its sad but true. True fans like many of us enjoy teams like the Wizards and also think they are a better team. Wednesday night look for the Wizards to play great outta the gate....I think they take this one SU....

Washington 105
Cleveland 103

Washington +5 -105 3 units
 
I agree that the Wizards get over 38.5 wins this season, but don't think they pick up #1 in Cleveland. Leans towards the Cavs here myself... Washington's new acquisitions are slightly overrated, the Cavs are at home in a prime-time game.... but I am a Cavs fan so hell what do I know...lol.

GL BAR
 
Lemme add that Sogalia is out for this game. I just wanted to give a scope on this Wizards team.

Also, Etan Thomas has been named the starting center over Brendan Haywoode.
 
tailing you on stons over 194 and wiz +5....you think 194 is still solid on stons?
 
HUNTDOG said:
tailing you on stons over 194 and wiz +5....you think 194 is still solid on stons?
Click to expand...

I gopt the game hitting 200 or so..so yes. I would only have 1-2 units though at 194. It's jumping like crazy.
 
Orlando Vs Chicago

Alright, back to back for the semi-baby Bulls and heading to Orlando to meet the young Magic.

First, lets talk about the line in this game. It was posted last week with an early number of Orlando -3. This stayed basically the same till during last nights Bulls-Heat matchup. The line moved all the way to 2.5 in favor of the Bulls. That is a huge swing for a game that quickly w/o an injury. I was hoping Chicago would show well in Miami to make this line move. Sure enough. It has gne back to CHI -1 for the last 8 hours or so.

The Orlando Magic just happen to have one of the top 5-10 players in league IMO. Mr wight Howard is the future of Big men in the nba. Basically Amare minus a knee injury with more upside. Scary though huh? This kid is scary good and I expect some monster numbers from him this year. I also expect a playoff birth from this team. They will be an excellent home team as well. Dwight fares extremely well against Ben. I saw it enough times. There really is no player in league who can get him off his game.

Classic overlay in this game as Bulls throttle Heat last night. We knew Heat were more pumped about rings than the game but they didn't show up for entire game which was a suprise. They are old and slow and won't be that great this year as i have said. A one and done team. Still suprises me Wade signed exteniion there. He is going to live in mediocore land for years to come. Bulls looked great but they also shot lights out and couldn't have been in a better rythm. They will be pretty confident in themsleves heading to ORL tonight. Please note Ben doesn't have same step in his legs on B2B's anymore.

As for the game...I think an excited young ORL team takes it to Chi early and often. This was one of the best teams last 2 months last year. I know many teams do that at end of season but this team is legit. Dwight Howard will abuse Bulls up front and Bulls get tired in 4th qtr..

Orlando 101
Chicago 93


Orlando ML +107
 
New York @ Memphis

First, i am sure most of you know the injury situation for the Grizzle. Pau is out for awhile and Stro Swift will sit this one out as well.

Alright, I am going to make semi-bold predictions on this Knickerbocker club. I think they will suprise many this season and be knocking on playoff door till about early April. I do believe in Zeke as a coach. He proved to be a very good one in Indiana. He built that club up to what it was back in the day before having the reign yanked out from under himself. I do wish they didn't have Franchise but I think the other parts will work togther better than last year.

Memphis has no scoring punch and no inside defnse w/o Swift/Gasol. Now, a Fratello team always will play soilid fundamental defense but I just find this team 'stale'.

A knicks team with a lot of doubters takes a stunning ML win on road.

New York 94
Memphis 87

New York ML +165
 
I am gonna tail a couple people on the Knicks and you on the Wiz. Good start last night. I also like Atlanta +6.5 and Washington/Cleveland over 191
 
Got two team totals going at Pinny :

Detroit over 101 : Enough said about that one in here. Stons will run tonight, went over this total on all last 4 season meetings WITH Big Ben.

Lakers over 98 : are you kidding me ? Even Kobeless this team can reach the 100 mark against high-tempo Warriors. This game will be decided over the 100 mark for both teams. Lakers scored 112 against the Suns on their second game last season, wich was also a B2B.
 
Excellent thoughts on the Knicks and Magic. You've convinced me to play both of them on the ML. Good luck.
 
LA Clippers @ Phoenix Suns

First, I was going to play this game a bit stronger but the fact that PHX got embarrassed basically last night makes me wonder. I still like several factors though.

-The Phoenix Suns defense is even more atrocious than last years addition. I am sure most of you watched at least some of last nights game. Phoenix will be at disadvantages a lot of nights this season with certain matchups. They will still be a winning club but tea,ms that take advantage of the matchups will have a much better shot at winning.

-Speaking of matchups. Elton Brand vs anyone up front is a joke. Amare looked horrid last night. Its sad. Sammy against Nash on offense is a joke to. He can faciliate the offense from point, post--basically anywhere. Kaman also had much success against PHX last year and surely has to be in a good state of mind with new contract.

-Revenge. I am sorry but you must look at teams playing first game against team that ousted them from playoffs. It was 2-0 on Tuesday night and I see a few more winning tonight, including this one.

I see the Clippers winning this division this year. If they come out focused they should be efficient and play well. The Suns are on B2B and may not shooting new ball that great.


LAC 105
Phoenix 100

LAC ML +170
 
Nice number you got smh...

I coulda had a number similar at about 11:00 last night but got greedy and waited hoping pub may back Bulls a bit more.
 
I got it at half unit bro..don't trust NBA and it's shadiness.

Wiz at six now?

not touching Clips after pgoenix got beat..clips seem to be real popular..love the magic at +2, pussied out on ML , will follow you on those 3 then.

BAR :bow:
 
Here's my quick takes on the other games for this evening

Going to settle on this card for now. I think I may add a total or two as the night gets closer. I like a lot tonight but thats from having 4-5 days to look..

Here we go..

Pacers-Bobcats

-I like the Bobcats in this spot. The Pacers aretrying to integrate a new style and the sloppiness showed in preseason. ABC's showed me a nice article pertaining to this. Carlisle isn't the type of coach to handle change well. We'll see.

Nets-Raptors

-I was planning on playing NJ here for a few days but wasn't confident enough. You wil see me on Jersey quite a bit early in the season though. I think they have huge year. Raptors defense sucks. They will be fun though as Sam wants 100 shots a game. Intrigued by Over here.

Boston-New Orleans

-Renew Orleans has excellent thoughts on this titl. I tend to agre with him. I just don't have a Celtics feel yet. New Orleans will be a solid club this year.

Minnesota-Sacramento

-Please see InSpekdah's thread for thought on why Minny will win. He knows those teams pretty well. I tend to agree with him as well. Minny is my team in league that I just cannot win on/against/over/under.

Utah-Houston

-I like Houston a lot this year. Early in season not as much. Tracy will be hounded by AK all night. Utah frontcourt is superior and I would have to say that Utah is the side here. No play though.

Clueless on Seattle and Portland other than Portlands line-up is going to be pretty funny for an opening night. Jack and McMillan have talked a lot about being confident against SEA.

Laker GS thoughts later tonight.
 
Please Note for LA Lakers

Kobias will sit out once again.

Also, Phil Jackson will not travel to Oakland. The Lakers will be led by none other than..

 
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