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Wednesday mlb discussion

2daBank

2daBank

2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
thought I left my laptop w Theresa, actually cost me some money cause for some reason I can’t do the same parlay builder on my phone as on laptop. Anyways it was sitting on top laundry I did yesterday! I knew I didn’t have it when I was a her!!! I’m smoking so much I guess that a side effect, being half retarded! lol. The good news is I don’t think it hurts my capping😎
 
I’ll admit I suppose the cards/pirates Ff ov 3.5 looks like a terrible bet in a vacuum but if you look at that game skenes was all over the place, his history here isn’t good. Cards just couldn’t push any baserunners home. On the other side it a question for @VirginiaCavs, has my whipping boy Liberatore become a legit pitcher I can’t fade? He had only walked 3 coming into today but you know I have a huge bias against him and figuring cards could score 2-3 I thought pirates could get 2 themselves which was clearly wrong. The Liberatore fade has made me money but it appears I have to start capping him? Your thoughts?
 
I’d really like a 15.5 out total on Soroco but all I have is 16.5 on Allen, is lean under but not something in dying to play, his day numbers have me not loving it. I don’t think Allen makes it the full 6 innings but 5.1 or 5.2 flip a coin? And that the difference between winning and losing, guess it depends on whether Nats can get a guy on to start 5th and 6th and get manager nervous eviugh to pull the trigger. I hit then a walk to open 6tg I think under cashes, or manager could be a prick and he gets a double play burying the under then gets pulled! Lol. -130 little steep assuming those scenarios close to correct, but there also a 15% chance Nats run him
By 4th!
 
2daBank said:
I’ll admit I suppose the cards/pirates Ff ov 3.5 looks like a terrible bet in a vacuum but if you look at that game skenes was all over the place, his history here isn’t good. Cards just couldn’t push any baserunners home. On the other side it a question for @VirginiaCavs, has my whipping boy Liberatore become a legit pitcher I can’t fade? He had only walked 3 coming into today but you know I have a huge bias against him and figuring cards could score 2-3 I thought pirates could get 2 themselves which was clearly wrong. The Liberatore fade has made me money but it appears I have to start capping him? Your thoughts?
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The whole Liberatore thing is pretty interesting when you dissect it. He's putting away 2x more batters on his 4-seam, and his spin rate is up from last year (+100), when batters were slugging .633 against it, as opposed to this year's .417.

The biggest difference this year compared to last is his microscopic walk rate, at 2.3%, he's been averaging 8% his entire career. Only ones better are Eovaldi, Eflin. ERA 3.44, xERA 2.93 suggests he could improve even more? Chase rate is up a bit too.
 
2daBank said:
I’d really like a 15.5 out total on Soroco but all I have is 16.5 on Allen, is lean under but not something in dying to play, his day numbers have me not loving it. I don’t think Allen makes it the full 6 innings but 5.1 or 5.2 flip a coin? And that the difference between winning and losing, guess it depends on whether Nats can get a guy on to start 5th and 6th and get manager nervous eviugh to pull the trigger. I hit then a walk to open 6tg I think under cashes, or manager could be a prick and he gets a double play burying the under then gets pulled! Lol. -130 little steep assuming those scenarios close to correct, but there also a 15% chance Nats run him
By 4th!
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Think I'm essentially done on Pitcher out props this year. On the wrong side what feels like 80% of the time despite strong trends, and opponents in the middle of slumps or the opposite. Either I have a massive blind spot when capping this using tons of data or I'm extremely unlucky. Probably a little combo of both but can't seem to find what those blind spots are. Part of me truly thinks it's the umpiring skewing outings one way or another, favorable or unfavorable umpiring allowing to squeak out a few more outs or less.
 
Logan Allen under 16.5 outs -130

I really debated at this price and maybe ya’ll get a better number I don’t predict where they move real well, lol. His day stats might really appeal to ppl, it was certainly the scariest thing taking under for me. That said there just so many other flaws with this guy, he not confident enough in his fastball which he shouldn’t be it not that good!! He throwing more sliders than ever, my only other concern nats do have some important lefty bats we have to see if they can hit him, but I do think they can draw walks then guys like Ruiz will have to come thru. I could be wrong and he goes 6 but I think he leaves this game sometime in the 6th, 85% chance we win or lose by a half out, but 11% chance he doesn’t go more than 5., small chance he goes 6 and I look dumb, it happens just not a lot!
 
peelpub94 said:
Think I'm essentially done on Pitcher out props this year. On the wrong side what feels like 80% of the time despite strong trends, and opponents in the middle of slumps or the opposite. Either I have a massive blind spot when capping this using tons of data or I'm extremely unlucky. Probably a little combo of both but can't seem to find what those blind spots are. Part of me truly thinks it's the umpiring skewing outings one way or another, favorable or unfavorable umpiring allowing to squeak out a few more outs or less.
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I don’t want you to feel like im judging you or the way you cap when I say this so please don’t get offended, you know I respect your capping. I often feel like your write ups on pitcher props feel mechanical and with the trends you kinda lose me. It nothing against those ways I think they brought you far I just think they should be your jumping off point then you have to cap the pitcher/what he throwing against what kind of lineup, he pitched against lot of different teams on different nights with those trends. Yes those get your candidates and then go to work trying to find out why it wouldn’t be a good bet.

I’m smoking a lot so I hope that made some sense and I didn’t come off like a douche! Lol
 
peelpub94 said:
The whole Liberatore thing is pretty interesting when you dissect it. He's putting away 2x more batters on his 4-seam, and his spin rate is up from last year (+100), when batters were slugging .633 against it, as opposed to this year's .417.

The biggest difference this year compared to last is his microscopic walk rate, at 2.3%, he's been averaging 8% his entire career. Only ones better are Eovaldi, Eflin. ERA 3.44, xERA 2.93 suggests he could improve even more? Chase rate is up a bit too.
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I was shocked when I saw walk rate. I never gave him a chance and dogged that trade for 3 years cause I knew Nats would never give our retsrded gm a cost controlled top 3 rotation pitcher. Never had to watch him! Lol. It appears someone new has got in his ear and maybe some supplements in his drinks!! I’ll have to start paying attention. Hate losing an auto play but it happens.
 
2daBank said:
I don’t want you to feel like im judging you or the way you cap when I say this so please don’t get offended, you know I respect your capping. I often feel like your write ups on pitcher props feel mechanical and with the trends you kinda lose me. It nothing against those ways I think they brought you far I just think they should be your jumping off point then you have to cap the pitcher/what he throwing against what kind of lineup, he pitched against lot of different teams on different nights with those trends. Yes those get your candidates and then go to work trying to find out why it wouldn’t be a good bet.

I’m smoking a lot so I hope that made some sense and I didn’t come off like a douche! Lol
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This is very good insight, I appreciate that a lot. Thank you.
 
peelpub94 said:
This is very good insight, I appreciate that a lot. Thank you.
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I can only see out of like half an eye. Remember those old movies always have like a fat Chinese guy w one eye that might work but always got something to say. Could be bull shit could be spot on, who knows? Wish I did but I know you can cap pitchers.
 
2daBank said:
I can only see out of like half an eye. Remember those old movies always have like a fat Chinese guy w one eye that might work but always got something to say. Could be bull shit could be spot on, who knows? Wish I did but I know you can cap pitchers.
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Nah, your perspective is valuable and welcomed. Thank you.
 
It gonna be super interesting I don’t know if nats play there lefties daily like good teams do? I never see dodgers telling Ohtani and freeman there some scrub lefty pitching so they can go ahead and take the fucjing day off!! That the only thing tigers do that drives me fuvking crazy!! I think this cat will be prone to walk good hitting lefties cause he can’t blow it by them, they shoood be able to foul a lot of pitches off, my biggest fear they young and roll over on his pitches early in counts.
 
I think the adderal I have are past the expiration date!! I never had ones before that didn’t work but these taste kinda old and they not focusing me in. My brother picking me up at 12 to go see Theresa so I gotta knock this shit out. Anyone have a game they looking at?
 
Be warned I didn’t cap the A’s game, I didn’t see that prospect 1st start or look over his pitch charts. I just saw a number and couldn’t believe +1.5 runs was so cheap, they instantly had to be part a round robin which I did with a few Ff totals. Hou:milw ov 4 and little more nervous bout the Ff ov 3.5 giants/cubs, I might need ti look closer at that but I would have options if the other games hit
 
Tucker 3+ bases +220…,

If you passed I wouldn’t blame you; he is 4 of 10 w 2 bombs vs Ray and how long will
Ray pitch? Ray been great when he pitched in Chicago so he could shut things down. I just like the underrated righties that im
Hoping make him throw a lot of pitches and tucker one the best cause left/right means nothing to him, his career is damn near equal and he raking lefties this season. Not worried at all, and what a price, a double and single cashes or he can just go yard in 1st and we can take a nap, love those!!
 
2daBank said:
Tucker 3+ bases +220…,

If you passed I wouldn’t blame you; he is 4 of 10 w 2 bombs vs Ray and how long will
Ray pitch? Ray been great when he pitched in Chicago so he could shut things down. I just like the underrated righties that im
Hoping make him throw a lot of pitches and tucker one the best cause left/right means nothing to him, his career is damn near equal and he raking lefties this season. Not worried at all, and what a price, a double and single cashes or he can just go yard in 1st and we can take a nap, love those!!
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Wind blowing in 12mph fwiw at Wrigley
 
Ben Brown ov 5.5 k’s -118

I paired percentage of him w few nba props I liked to hopefully hit bigger payout. Lol
 
peelpub94 said:
Wind blowing in 12mph fwiw at Wrigley
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My stupid weather app said 6 mph, I was bout to ask ya but figured I could be big boy and handle, of course I get lied to. Double and single get it done, ball lost in Ivey for a triple (gotta be like a 1.5% chance of that!) or he rips one his liners that stays low and Cuts thru the wind and gets over fence. I’d have much rather played over 1.5 h/r/rbi but they don’t let me parlay that on this site:, smart by them, sucks for me!!
 
I got 1 hours til my brother picks me up, I assume I’ll be able to work over with Theresa after I hold her for little bit. Long as she doesn’t die then not sure so trying ti get this all done!
 
Think that all I’ll do with day games. My brother coming to go see Theresa w me hear shortly, I’m hoping she is calm I’d like to take one more nap w her and maybe she can just stay asleep? It probably won’t be nothing that easy, why would it, but the nap thing be nice and I’ve smoked so Much I could take a crazy good nap, I had to go outside so I didn’t fall asleep before my brother got here!!

It is crazy nice, if Theresa is up maybe we will go outside, I just have no idea how this visit going to go? Now I’m anxious but trying to save my zannex for when I really need sleep, I had my day and half blackout already!! lol. I’m bringing my laptop so I’ll get to the other games after a nap, maybe no nap, just up to her.
 
2daBank said:
Logan Allen under 16.5 outs -130

I really debated at this price and maybe ya’ll get a better number I don’t predict where they move real well, lol. His day stats might really appeal to ppl, it was certainly the scariest thing taking under for me. That said there just so many other flaws with this guy, he not confident enough in his fastball which he shouldn’t be it not that good!! He throwing more sliders than ever, my only other concern nats do have some important lefty bats we have to see if they can hit him, but I do think they can draw walks then guys like Ruiz will have to come thru. I could be wrong and he goes 6 but I think he leaves this game sometime in the 6th, 85% chance we win or lose by a half out, but 11% chance he doesn’t go more than 5., small chance he goes 6 and I look dumb, it happens just not a lot!
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This one was kinda a home run!
 
This number seems out of whack so I could be missing something feel free to tell me if you see it?

Seattle/A’s Ff u 5 -110..

By all accounts it appears the former 1st rounder hoglund can pitch, I havnt seen him or studied his numbers im just gonna believe what I have read, this be a tougher challenge today that Miami but it also be more festive for him, maybe he thrives maybe he doesn’t. I know on the other side A’s can’t hit woo for shit! 92 at bats 17 hits w 22k’s w 5 walks. Only 3 of the 17 hits went for extra bases with Fairly low exit velo across the board, if I could bet A’s ff Tt under I would
 
Fucking Tucker walked that does no good ceor maybe get Ray out sooner I guess. Tucker is big on the late innings hits
 
2daBank said:
Ben Brown ov 5.5 k’s -118

I paired percentage of him w few nba props I liked to hopefully hit bigger payout. Lol
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That was not easy but hey it still cashed in the 4th inning! Are you not entertained?!?
 
I just can’t fathom why A’s are getting so much plus? It feels way more even to me. Yes their pitcher has more experience and he has owned the A’s batters but it gotten so bad with enough at bats I could argue in inevitable somebody takes a woo pitch yard at some point! As mentioned I know nothing the A’s prospect but he appears to be worthy of a 1st round pick so I’ll roll the dice against Seattle who still ain’t world beaters on offense,
 
Well I guess I can feel good not one of the 3 cubs hitters I played hit anything! Lol. Fuck
 
Sanchez ov 17,5 outs -130..

He has not been consistent at all but Philly needs him to start pumping out QS’s and this as good a team as any to start against od ya could prob play his k’s I considered that also. I think he pitches 6* innings and should punch 1 per inning here. I am gonna go 70-30 outs to ov 5.5 k’s here, just can’t make up my mind, I’ll be pissed if I split.
 
Wow. A’s smashed woo, he had dominated tv to. I thought they score but not freaking 5 in 5!! Even worse hoglund came out and A’s pen handing out runs.
 
Hunter Greene ov 6.5 k’s.

he has just been so consistently good, this should be a 7.5 no questions asked so clearly I’m a huge square or it gonna rain or something? Cause this don’t make much freaking sense, you know I played it several times! I don’t think Braves the super high team of the past but I also question if some these guys playing can even deal with top line stuff like this! This price, this guy, any time and place imo,
 
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2daBank said:
Hunter Greene ov 6.5 k’s.

he has just been so consistently good, this should be a 7.5 no questions asked so clearly I’m a huge square or it gonna rain or something? Cause this don’t make much freaking sense, you know I played it several times! I don’t think Braves the super high team of the past but I also question if some these guys playing can even deal with top line stuff like this! This price, this guy, any time and place imo,
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Well we got fucjed on this one. Just needing 1 k after 3 innings, no runs, and leaves w an injury.
 
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