Wednesday "Marcum is back" discussion thread

  • Thread starter Thread starter Gyno
  • Start date Start date
Man I love this card. What til you guys see this.

Two games are so obvious!
 
Sniff me out some winners, boys. I'm gonna be in Vegas by noon with money burning a hole in my pocket....
 
I haven't been betting bases this year but how the fuck is Locke -147 vs the Twinks? He's given up 21 runs in his last 26 innings....Pelfrey hasn't pitched badly other than last time out
 
Twins also good vs lefties. Locke much better @ home. Twins definitely present value.
 
My man marsski,

I'm going with the WS tomorrow. Indian lefty lineup has never seen Rodon before, he is at home and should have a great outing. Marcum hasn't pitched in MLB since 2013 and will have a short leash. White Sox are hot right now, happy clubhouse.


Bet the White Sox man.
 
Gabe said:
My man marsski,

I'm going with the WS tomorrow. Indian lefty lineup has never seen Rodon before, he is at home and should have a great outing. Marcum hasn't pitched in MLB since 2013 and will have a short leash. White Sox are hot right now, happy clubhouse.


Bet the White Sox man.
Click to expand...

I'm on it brother. :cheers3:
 
Marquis is an autofade for me. When he starts going bad, he goes bad.

His changeup and sinker aren't working like it was earlier in the year.
 
Gabe said:
Marquis is an autofade for me. When he starts going bad, he goes bad.

His changeup and sinker aren't working like it was earlier in the year.
Click to expand...

I was thinking over in that game...just based on ERAs of pitchers. Reds bullopen has sucked other than Cingrani and Cuban
 
Some of my other wagering thoughts:

Tampa seems cheap to get a guy with a 2.36 ERA against a guy called up from AAA 11 days ago...
Auto OVER in Colorado with two shitbag pitchers going? Probably be 11 or something....
LAD/SF under? That's a great under park right? Tiny Tim at home is usually tough and Anderson can deal.
Chase Anderson for Zona has had some good outings lately...Phelps started the year in the bullpen and coming off his highest pitch count of the year...hmmmm
 
Marsski said:
Would you be looking at cards/mets under without Eddings?
Click to expand...

absolutely. notwithstanding his struggles in last few starts, i like Martinez a lot (and he had good numbers vs Mets in his only start vs them) and Colon has good number vs most guys who are likely to be in Cards lineup tomorrow (and allowed only 1 ER in each of his two starts vs them last season). Cards bats busted out tonight, but other than that, both teams have been relatively quiet at the plate recently.
 
Having done no work at all and just woke up my first thought was to parlay Houston and the Nationals Ml and parlay them RL and bet them seperately
 
Marsski said:
I haven't been betting bases this year but how the fuck is Locke -147 vs the Twinks? He's given up 21 runs in his last 26 innings....Pelfrey hasn't pitched badly other than last time out
Click to expand...

Sounds good. Hit them light yesterday. Still need to think though.
 
BiffTFinancial said:
absolutely. notwithstanding his struggles in last few starts, i like Martinez a lot (and he had good numbers vs Mets in his only start vs them) and Colon has good number vs most guys who are likely to be in Cards lineup tomorrow (and allowed only 1 ER in each of his two starts vs them last season). Cards bats busted out tonight, but other than that, both teams have been relatively quiet at the plate recently.
Click to expand...

between muts bats and E behind the plate id think martinez is pretty likely to regain that new found efficiency he pitched with early in the season. didnt like fat boy had pretty bad numbers with E but it was only a couple starts, and as you mentioned he was lights out vs us last yr.. reynolds has good numbers vs him and as a fan id love nothing more than to see reynolds starting everyday and fat adams sent to golden coral, far as today if we on under i much rather see the black hole that is adams clogging up the middle of the order, dude cant do anything but pull the ball into the shift and he doesnt have the power numbers to justify playnig everyday 1st base. reynolds might strike out 250 times but is that any worse than repeatedly hitting into the shift over and over? at least he not getting doubled up, most importantly when he not striking out he hitting doubles and hrs. i have no doubt he a 25 hr guy if given the chance and that really the only thing cards lineup is missing.. i doubt they gonna go that route and id expect adams back today which good because not only does he suck he has had no success off colon. biggest concern would be martinez laboring again and cant make it further than 5 ip which would put a bunch of guys out of our pen that i dont trust at all in play.. dont love the -115 price tag on un 7 either but afraid it gets worse if i wait. guess im gonna go ahead and play it smallish..

while we at it sign me up for the over in pit at + money yet again. not sure why they handing out favorable odds to play twinks overs? especially against lefties. between them hitting lefties, their starters not being all that capable of going deep into gms, and their suspect pen ill take every plus money over i can get. so much to like and a little helping breeze out as well. dont really understand these prices on pit either, dont see much reason to not back twinks again, i prefer ff over gm, buccos showed yesterday what we already knew, they have a big adv once the gm gets handed over to the pens.
 
since the bravos series finally was the last straw and got me far away from the fish i guess sea is next up on list of teams that continually fukk me over. really cant find much of a reason not to play them again. both starters been solid, chen been a little better but i like elias ground ball and infield fly rate in that park much more than chen who is having a lot of balls hit in the air. considering chen's history vs sea hitters and elias navigating his way thru O's lineup twice last season (granted he never made it thru 6 he did leave giving his team a chance to win). the under 8.5 probably makes more sense.
 
Houston is 8-2 in the day
Oakland is 1-12 Also 1-8 vs left- handed pitchers.
N 3-7 last 10 in the losses 1 1 run loss.
Warren 0-5 away in his career with a 4.38 road ERA lifetime
1 negative for Houston is Gregerson who got hit hard today
Hahn 6.48 ERA in March 6.19 ERA on 4 days rest based on 16 innings
Oakland 2-8 last 10 3-7 last 10 away
14-27 total record worst in baseball.
Washington 16-4 last 20 and now playing on WEDNESDAY
Zimmerman poor ERA on 4
He stinks in the day but .197 ERA at night
The truth here is the prices in these games are absurdly
LOW
 
Very hard understanding Seattle decisions yesterday in relief
Keuchel probably will get hit some. His stuff on a May decline and Meals not good on a short sample. Like the over.
 
Last edited:
Zimmerman 3.99 ERA with Marvin. Aoparently its a rule that my pitchers are always fighting their refs
 
49-43 +3.70 units

All plays 0.85 units
White sox -1 (+108)
KC -1 (-104)
Tb -122
 
I had forgotten Marcum was still alive, much less lurking in the Tribe's organization.
 
trying to find a reason not to play day-night parlay with Stros + Nats, esp with A's struggles vs LHP and in day games, Ellsbury out for Yanks while Nats white hot and Zimmerman seems to have righted the shit after early season struggles.
 
played Twins TT over 3 (-115) big at betus. 9 times out of 10, i get better price at 5D than betus (account i've had forever), but every once in a while i find a gem like this there.

Twins TTs vs LHP this season:
0-2 runs: 3 (2 away)
3 exactly: 1 (0 away)
4+ runs: 13 (6 away)

also booked day-night ML parlay Stros + Nats (+176)

market clearly calling my Cards/Mets under, Reds/Royals over leans stupid. may look at FF, esp for Reds/Royals given how much better then pens are than the SPs in that game.
 
BiffTFinancial said:
played Twins TT over 3 (-115) big at betus. 9 times out of 10, i get better price at 5D than betus (account i've had forever), but every once in a while i find a gem like this there.

Twins TTs vs LHP this season:
0-2 runs: 3 (2 away)
3 exactly: 1 (0 away)
4+ runs: 13 (6 away)

also booked day-night ML parlay Stros + Nats (+176)

market clearly calling my Cards/Mets under, Reds/Royals over leans stupid. may look at FF, esp for Reds/Royals given how much better then pens are than the SPs in that game.
Click to expand...

aaaaaaand, betus now has Twins TT over 3' (-115). alright, alright, alright.
 
gsro said:
amazing i can only get 3.5 @ 1.92 on pinny
Click to expand...

i'm guessing that they intended to hang 3' (-115) all along and mis-entered 3 (-115). i'm talking to another guy on twitter who hit it hard too at open. guessing it was bad line/mistake all along and people pounding it caused them to realize mistake. i'll take it - i'm not good enough to turn my nose up at good luck.
 
Never parlay teams when the games will not be being played at the same time UNLESS you think the price will move away from you. You do not get better odds than if you just bet the teams individually.
 
nbafan88 said:
Never parlay teams when the games will not be being played at the same time UNLESS you think the price will move away from you. You do not get better odds than if you just bet the teams individually.
Click to expand...

Not parlaying day-night for better odds; parlaying at different times because, after capping sides, those were my two favorite sides, but have a couple more that i like tonight. if i lose first leg, i can place another parlay with Nats (my favorite side today) if i so choose. i don't play ML on faves as expensive as Stros and Nats are today; if i played individually, i'd go -1 RL on them. to each his own though, thank you for your thoughts.
 
My guess is we may see a big name or two sitting in Red/Royals tonight. That would be the best explanation for the line movement on the total there. Will be interested for when lineups are announced.
 
BiffTFinancial said:
i'm guessing that they intended to hang 3' (-115) all along and mis-entered 3 (-115). i'm talking to another guy on twitter who hit it hard too at open. guessing it was bad line/mistake all along and people pounding it caused them to realize mistake. i'll take it - i'm not good enough to turn my nose up at good luck.
Click to expand...

yea that makes sense, but a good grab none the less
 
tuck321 said:
Very hard understanding Seattle decisions yesterday in relief
Keuchel probably will get hit some. His stuff on a May decline and Meals not good on a short sample. Like the over.
Click to expand...

Only saw the play-by-play, but for the most part I've understood Lloyd so far this year. I'm guessing you didn't like the quick hook on Walker? Not sure how I feel about that, but I think I would have gave him the rope to get out of it or hang himself. I just wonder if he'd thrown something like 40 pitches that inning...

big_units said:
have you watched any of rodon's outings? guys is like john rocker 2.0
Click to expand...

Lol

Gabe said:
My man marsski,

I'm going with the WS tomorrow. Indian lefty lineup has never seen Rodon before, he is at home and should have a great outing. Marcum hasn't pitched in MLB since 2013 and will have a short leash. White Sox are hot right now, happy clubhouse.


Bet the White Sox man.
Click to expand...

Marcum was doing well in AAA for whatever the heck that is worth

2daBank said:
between muts bats and E behind the plate id think martinez is pretty likely to regain that new found efficiency he pitched with early in the season. didnt like fat boy had pretty bad numbers with E but it was only a couple starts, and as you mentioned he was lights out vs us last yr.. reynolds has good numbers vs him and as a fan id love nothing more than to see reynolds starting everyday and fat adams sent to golden coral, far as today if we on under i much rather see the black hole that is adams clogging up the middle of the order, dude cant do anything but pull the ball into the shift and he doesnt have the power numbers to justify playnig everyday 1st base. reynolds might strike out 250 times but is that any worse than repeatedly hitting into the shift over and over? at least he not getting doubled up, most importantly when he not striking out he hitting doubles and hrs. i have no doubt he a 25 hr guy if given the chance and that really the only thing cards lineup is missing.. i doubt they gonna go that route and id expect adams back today which good because not only does he suck he has had no success off colon. biggest concern would be martinez laboring again and cant make it further than 5 ip which would put a bunch of guys out of our pen that i dont trust at all in play.. dont love the -115 price tag on un 7 either but afraid it gets worse if i wait. guess im gonna go ahead and play it smallish..

while we at it sign me up for the over in pit at + money yet again. not sure why they handing out favorable odds to play twinks overs? especially against lefties. between them hitting lefties, their starters not being all that capable of going deep into gms, and their suspect pen ill take every plus money over i can get. so much to like and a little helping breeze out as well. dont really understand these prices on pit either, dont see much reason to not back twinks again, i prefer ff over gm, buccos showed yesterday what we already knew, they have a big adv once the gm gets handed over to the pens.
Click to expand...

Just scared off an impala when I read that Golden Corral part lmao
 
D-Woww said:
I don't get this analogy on any level
Click to expand...

ok, i'll explain...the guy is left handed, throws high 90's, and only has 2 pitches...he throws pitches that bounce to the backstop, fly over the heads of hitters, and chase the catcher into the opposing batter's box...he needs a conference on the mound almost every inning because he is teetering on the verge of collapse, and as a coach you just have to pray he strikes out 3 batters before he walks the bases loaded.
i am still really curious...has anyone here watched at least 1 full outing this guy has had or is everyone just taking the word of scouts that he's good?
if i were a manager there is no way in the world i would let this guy get on the mound in a mlb game right now. it is absolutely inexcusable to have that kind of lack of command in the major leagues.
 
A bet on Marcum is a leap of faith. Bruce Chen was also dealing in Columbus. The CWS pitcher is not ready, will probably be in AAA before long, but he's a lefty, which is half the battle against Cleveland.
 
tipyerbartender said:
A bet on Marcum is a leap of faith. Bruce Chen was also dealing in Columbus. The CWS pitcher is not ready, will probably be in AAA before long, but he's a lefty, which is half the battle against Cleveland.
Click to expand...

any bet is a leap of faith

he has great numbers vs the whitesox hitters...

and

[h=4]Year-by-Year: Dale Scott[/h] Click year to see all splits · SHARE using Permanent Link

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[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"]0.00[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
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Well, when you bet like I do, win one, lose two, have a beer, yes it's a leap of faith. What's his Wednesday record?

Marcum hasn't pitched in a while and he was never that good to begin with.

Still might bet him. Go Tribe.
 
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