Wednesday Hoops

[handy]

Welcome to Wednesday's NBA Hoops with Handy!!

Well is tonight the night the Rockets don't cover and don't win? Maybe, and the line sure tells me the oddsmakers aren't convinced the Rockets get it done. When was the last time a team won 18 or 19 games in a row, rested and only laying 5/5.5/6 on the road vs. a below .500 team? Regardless of the line, I'm not betting against this streak. I told you just wait, don't kick yourself if they come up short and you didn't bet the dog. This team will come crashing back down to earth. Next week it's all likely to change. So if you need action on the game you might as well bet the streak and hope the Rockets cover for the 12th straight game. That's enough to scare the shit out of me because the oddsmakers rarely are wrong 12 straight times.

Clippers at Magic - O.k. No line as of yet but this is simply guess the Magic's winning margin. If Orlando shows up they win. Why would you bet this game?

Philly at Detroit - After watching Flip Saunders and Detroit simply toy with Chicago the other night I would be terrified laying pts. with the Pistons unless they're involved in a big time game. Flip is interested in winning but he maybe as interested in tinkering with different lineups. Detroit's a very good team capable of simply taking over games in 2 or 3 minute stretches. Philly has been a hot team and I don't expect them to win but again I'm not looking to play guess the margin with Flip.

Boston/Sea- What do you know another guess the winning margin. There is probably less than a 5% chance Seattle wins this game. Again, Boston can and likely will have their way with this team but Doc Rivers could be looking to give PJ Brown and Cassell extra playing time to get into the swing of things. Seriously, if you bet this one you may want to call gamblers anonymous.

New York vs. Miami -There is no reason for the Knicks to be laying pts. in this crap game. The books are taking advantage of the no Wade situation as people are thinking his absence is worth a lot of pts. I believe Wade had very little impact on the number this year because he was hurt. I don't know who wins this one but laying or taking pts. is nuts in this one. Imagine someone says who did you bet on tonight. Oh I took the Knicks on the road -1.5 or 2. They should beat the Heat easy, no Wade no problem. On the flip side your response is I took the Heat, they're getting a couple pts. at home vs. the Knicks. Doesn't that line look wrong? Yeah, but so what. All you need to realize is you're a degenerate gambler if you have a bet on these two teams in the same game.

Cleveland at NJ - Well I for one am not impressed nor do I like this new Cavs team. That being said I have zero confidence laying pts. on the road is a smart idea with them. NJ on the other hand is garbage but they have some players and without notice they can show up for any home game vs. an avg. team and win. The only bet in this game for me would be NJ but no thanks.

Utah at Milwaukee - Let me guess many of you got sucked into the Jazz Tuesday night at Chicago? I'm telling you it's so damn hard to win on the road when the home team decides to show up and compete. I believe the Bucks will show up. Will they win? No idea but the Jazz aren't a good road team and they won't warrant laying pts and a bet. Good luck taking the sucker bet on Utah. Why take the Jazz tonight when you can get them probably plus 8 pts. at Boston Friday night? I know I would much rather have Utah +8 at Boston than laying a couple at Milwaukee in a back to back. The Jazz can play with the Celtics. There is no doubt in my mind about that.

San Antonio at New Orleans - Another scary bet. IT's always easy to take the Spurs and take your chances. I have no problem myself doing just that as I know the Spurs show up for just about every game. They're the one team I don't mind making a public bet on from time to time. I'm not looking to bet this game tonight because I think the Spurs are just treading in a really tough patch of games on their schedule. They no doubt owe the Pistons one from earlier this year and that game occurs this Friday night. I'm going to pass but I believe SA gets 1 or 1.5 in this game but don't be surprised if they're laying 1.

Charlotte at Dallas -Guess the margin. Have fun. Win or lose call gamblers anonymous at halftime.

Memphis at Denver - Gamblers anonymous game.

Toronto at Golden State - I wouldn't lay 9 pts. with the Golden State Warriors. Period. They don't play D and 9 pts. is a lot even vs. a team playing 2nd of a back to back. What makes you think that's a lock on the home team.

Well unfortunately another night of no bets for me. I just hate these games again.

If I had to guess Miami, NJ, Atlanta and Milwaukee are better bets than most think. There is no way I would take the Hawks but I have a feeling Houston goes down tonight.

 

[handy]

I should add if I don't think a team is capable of winning I don't bet them. OF course, if you want to give me 25 pts. I will gladly take my chances with any team but my pt. is betting on teams which don't stand a prayer to win isn't my type of bet.

I don't think many take the time to think about the difference between +4 and +10. It's easy to make the case that there is a big difference but in my view there isn't. In my mind if a team is down 7 with a minute to go there is almost the same chance that the game lands over 10 as it does under 4. That's why NBA teasers are fools gold. 4 or 5 pts. is nothing in these games. Yes, often times it's the difference between winning and losing by my underlying message is the scoreboard swings are often huge in the NBA and often 10 looks a lot larger than it really is.

 

[SportsNut]

Good stuff sir.

Agree with alot of your comments especially if the if you dont believe they can win SU why take the points angle.

Can I tell you that I really like Atlanta here. Also I talked myself out of Chi today but until Utah beats medicore teams consistently as road chalk why lay it. Anyway why this game. The line seems enticing but ATL has also won 4 of the past 5 vs Houston at home so the Rockets dont walk into this building with alot of success to rely on. Sure its not to wise to rely on past meetings but its not like the core has changed that much and its not like Houston wasnt the better team every time previously. How bout how Atlanta derailed the Lakers hot streak ? Houston being 7-10 ATS as road chalk ? Simply put ATL is not a good team but a dangerous team when you look at its roster. During this entire run Hous started with some narrow wins Ind , Milw , Minny and since has won @ Cle , @ NO and @ Dallas in fairly impressive fashion. They were never favored though...So since this streak started they havent been road chalk since that thre game stretch and lost ATS , won ATS by 1, won ATS by 1/2...in those meetings...I think Landry's absence would be huge...and Hous success riding on the 3 ball lately...Mutombo is ur center...ehh

Nets +4 : Usually I look to fade teams when returning home BUT the exception is when teams play poor as hell and are desperate for a win. Insert NJN. Cle is 2-3 away since the break and pulled away late vs Indy and needed King James 50 to fend on pesky NYK. Add Ben Wallace to the Cavs injury report( Snow done for year) . Which means you basically can play 7 Cavs with Wally and Damon off the bench maybe some Dwayne Jones. NJ is running 10-11 deep these days and with lots of big men...terrible spot for Cle IMO...lets remember they didnt look particularily good vs Port or Indy.

heat +1.5 : I think NY might just have quit on the road. They will probably bring a great effort every night at home for there paying fans but the road games have looked ugly lately and you just wonder if they are trying or care enough. 30 , 27 and 24 and 40 in four of there past 5 away. Miami is depleted losing Banks for awhile and haslem may return. So the rotation is thin. Granted the Tor and GSW games were terrible but those are playoff clubs...they still almost beat LAC , defetaed Sac , lost to OT vs Philly and Denver . Wade was around for most but the Clippers cant be worse then NY at this point.

Sixers +9 : As you said Det is looking to win but margins are unimportant. L24 as chalk 8-16 ATS...thats 33%. Sure Philly had a hiccup vs Boston but they are fighting for the playoffs and if Chi could keep it within 10 so should they...


Raps +9 : Some payback for that Sunday afternoon loss but GSW is also 0-5 ATS on 3+ days rest and a scary 1-4 SU. .no secret that GSW has been terrible as chalk. If LAL couldnt get it done I wuldnt expect GSW to...



Bunch of NL's as well at the monet. This is one of the better cards IMO in recent days...:shake::cheers:

 

[BigLion]

Good read as always handy and keep that patience going .

 

[DaBestBody4Life]

good lookin from the both of you and I believe Atlanta is a great play tomorrow night but I doubt I will play it with all the college hoops games I have to look at....but this line just looks too easy for the Rockets...but who knows maybe it is that easy...

The Nets are also a great play as those are the only two I would play....it is just tough in the NBA right now...

 

[SportsNut]

"That's what is giving me so much confidence," said Richard Jefferson the only holdover from the Nets teams that went to the Finals in 2002 and 2003. "Are we going to make a run and be the fifth seed? No. But who on this team wasn't in the playoffs last season? Who on this team wasn't in the playoffs the last two or three seasons? Not many guys. So hopefully we'll get it together at the end to fix it."

Nets may stink but they havent quit ...

 

[Master P]

great stuff handy, nice read

 

[Satyr]

I should add if I don't think a team is capable of winning I don't bet them. OF course, if you want to give me 25 pts. I will gladly take my chances with any team but my pt. is betting on teams which don't stand a prayer to win isn't my type of bet.

I don't think many take the time to think about the difference between +4 and +10. It's easy to make the case that there is a big difference but in my view there isn't. In my mind if a team is down 7 with a minute to go there is almost the same chance that the game lands over 10 as it does under 4. That's why NBA teasers are fools gold. 4 or 5 pts. is nothing in these games. Yes, often times it's the difference between winning and losing by my underlying message is the scoreboard swings are often huge in the NBA and often 10 looks a lot larger than it really is.

A lot of good stuff by you as per usual. However, I would like to add, that by this logic, laying 10 is "no biggie" either? Of course 7 points isn't much, only two treys and a bucket, but there are several possible outcomes which may fuck your bet if you lay points.

Backdoor covers or a team disinterested to win by 10 simply wins by 5 in the last 23 seconds of the game just to name a few.

Teams play to win not to cover, that's the flipside of your "7 points isn't much" theory. For example, Suns should have laid 25 last night against Memphis the way the game went, but some other night they wouldn't be up 39 and would still not care in the 2nd half as the win is already sealed.


So it's a tricky thing. As far as your other comments are concerned, I tend to agree with most. I do remember you saying once that betting bad teams results in losses. Why even bother so much around this meaningless, shitty game in Miami? I would take MIA ML rather than lay points with NY any day, even without Wade, I think the Clippers a few nights ago were a major suckerbet, but it cashed in after all. I'm thinking many will bet that money made from that game and roll it over to NYK tonight, quite possibly lose it.


Laying points with Detroit is devastating, I agree, you never know which team will show up or how they'll close the game. Still looking at the card. GL

 

[tuck321]

Boston is certainly capable and happy burying teams but the mo does not point to a cover today. Team has played Minn twice and not covered and Seattle once and not covered. These are Ray Allens and Kevins old teams. You bet Boston against Eastern playoff teams or teams they dislike. Also the lookahead to Utah. Toronto has a real chance. Will have to think about it. Atlanta has no chance. Is anyone looking at that pitiful team. 5-15 su last 20 getting 6 or less playing a Houston team tremendously better than any we have seen before who knows how tough the games after this will be. Sure bet Atlanta!The Suns are actually a great team compared to Atlanta. Have bet on Houston last 8. Will obviously play them in ml parlays and various straight bets.. Mixed feeling about the Nets game. It would not surprise me to see the Nets fight. Would surprise a geat deal to see them win, Maybe a simple Houston Cleveland ml parlay. In fact I will put that one in.
You know there are a lot of people that do not know that everything is too hard and too difficult and are just winning. Raptors are a real team and GS has something else on their plate so that might be worth a bet.
Just think about the games. Would not ever consider betting less than 4 or 5 games on a full slate. You should not be afraid of playing dogs or favorites. Did anyone actually not bet the Grizz last night at halftime. Seriously? Plenty of value bets all the time.

 

[MusicCityGambler]

I'm looking in my phonebook for Gamblers Anonymous.... GL sir.

 

[SportsNut]

Did anyone actually not bet the Grizz last night at halftime. Seriously? Plenty of value bets all the time

ME- posted it in CBB thread...great post by the way TUCK...there is always value in card some days its just not quite that obvious

 

[handy]

to each their own but it's been my experience that the best bets are on teams which you can count on competing. If you want to bet the garbage teams and hope they stick around to cover so be it. I think it's a losers mentality simply because the team you're betting on is more than likely the loser.

 

[tuck321]

Actually I agree with that Handy. but last night you were just betting a known pattern of the Suns. The Grizz are not on their own value worth a bet in almost any situation.

 

[SportsNut]

Since I agree with Tuck. Then why would you count on PHO competing in the 2nd H ? They are up 30 , having a veteran team that could use the extra rest with some tough games on deck , oh and they have no bench. Barbosa , Giricek , Diaw then Strawberry and Linton Johnson I guess...Memphis 2nd team is fairly deep with experience... I think its a good pattern to fade Pho in the 2nd H because of this..Nash , Shaq , Hill all about 34 and you dont want to risk Amare to much whihc leaves your worst starter Raja Bell...

GL gents

 

[handy]

All I can say is you're betting on Memphis on the road. If that's the team you want your money on then have it your way. Isn't that McDonald's slogan?

Over the years I've become a big believer in betting on teams which I think are going to have a shot at controlling the scoreboard and/or competiting. A 15 pt. NBA dog rarely has a shot to win. I know the Kings did the other night getting around 14 but they were a wounded bear and a team with enough talent to steal a tough road game from time to time. I can't live with Memphis period. Do they want to win, are they worrying about staying healthy, what's their motivation to do anything?

Good luck!!

 

[Jasper11]

Great Thread! I read it twice and then bet Houston. I sensed your ambivalence but you did say you wouldn't bet against the streak. I took it one step further and bet on the streak. Love your thought provoking analysis. Keep up the great work!

 

[SportsNut]

No I agree with you bro. I wouldnt take memphis +15 either but down at half and we are talking different things you basically have a team with no depth and that is aging up 31 . So I took Memphis +29(-2) in essence knowing there bench is more more talented with youngsters like Lowry , Crittenton , seasoned vets like Kwame Brown , Jason Collins , Brian Cardinal ...just a logic play that PHO eventually has to slow down and they got up 40 before winning by low 20's...

I agree Memphis what a mystery...

I admit I went heavy on ATL here. The Hawks gave them a game but fell apart in the fourth. Someone is wasting alot of money pounding the Rockets opposition. Seems like every game has dropped 1.5 to 2 points lately against the hottest team going...did have SU doggie wins with NJN and Philly. Miami would have been a PUSH had I played it though would have taken +3.5. So hopefully Raps can play well this evening...

GL

 

[handy]

no bets for me today.

That Houston team is only worth betting on. i'm so confident once they lose they will regress big time. Their upcoming schedule beginning this Sunday is brutal. Watch 5-5 over their next 10 following this streak. That's sort of what I think happens and they probably got 3-7 vs. the number.

I guess I should've bet tonight on the Nets, Bucks and Heat but those are 3 ugly teams. The only one I would've given any real thought to would've been the Nets. They have players which I trust the other teams don't.

Plus, when you bet on Miami you know going into the game you're only hope to win the bet is if they lose and cover. The Heat are masters at finding ways to lose. That's we I don't bet on teams like that. It's one advil at a time.

 

[SportsNut]

It's great when teams have big streaks that end. Just look at DET since there big run ended and how bout them Patriots? I admit to reaching with fading Houston I thought it was a great spot but should have passed when it went from 6 to 4.5 today. NJ as I mentioned last evening is a spot where I just like to play on home teams off terrible road trips. They usually put forward a great effort and Cle was banged up and not playing especially well. Utah is just a mystery and should be faded until further notice on the road. For Miami I guess we could insert Denver and Philly as ways to give away a game...

Go Raps and good nite...