Wednesday discussion thread

[2daBank]

At the moment I have less to discuss than even yesterday but I’m working on it. I was so happy to see the discussion threads carrying on without me last month while I was going thru everything w Theresa but lately I havnt even seen a thread I could come post some thoughts in! You guys slacking!! At the very least I’d like to double up yesterday 1-0 posted thoughts!

We could start with someone explaining Baily Ober to me, pretty much all the things I look at to cap a pitcher (other than watching him or tracking pitches which I havnt done) would tell me he having a worse year, even his fastball velo down a tick, problem is his era and w/l is somehow better, has he been lucky/potential for some regression or is it something else? Even his babip is crazy high this year compared to previous seasons, the only thing I see that is most likely a huge part the equation is he doesn’t walk many. I’d think a tick up in walks with the amount of hits he gives up could lead to his era going up but will more walks happen? That pretty much impossible for me to say. O’s lineup has very limited at bats vs him so that isn’t any help. I hate double headers and this one of a few today. Just trying to find holes to play against Ober but not sure Im doing a very good job. Ober 37:9 k/bb is tough to argue with.

 

[B.A.R.]

Skubal tonight so expect a very low scoring game.

 

[B.A.R.]

Tell me about this Dobbins kid from Boston.

I'm not all that familiar with him.

Looks like he has excellent control -- 4 walks in 22.2 innings this year.

4 starts total, guessing an injury was in play. Maybe not? Bringing along slowly? First 4 starts of his career.

 

[B.A.R.]

Skubal tonight so expect a very low scoring game.

I made the snide comments about the lack of run support for Tarik but he's actually had 9, 7 and 9 within the last five starts.

Last Friday vs Texas, two runs was all he needed. The Tigers were off that wild double-header the day before in Denver where they scored 11 and 10 runs. No surprise that only a few came across on Friday vs a solid pitcher (Corbin).

Again, we have Detroit off two higher scoring games coming into tonight....

The Red Sox series has seen 14 and 10 from the boys. Tomorrow is a MUCH NEEDED true off day as well.

Feels like a quick, low scoring game tonight.

How should I attack this??

 

[bulldogs]

Auto play
pgh under 8. Now 9-0-1 to the under in last 10.

wsx + 198. cinn should not be -200 vs anyone

these were 2-0 last night

 

[2daBank]

looking at Fedde for the Cardinals you see a awful k;bb ratio, nothing very impressive, but when you look game by game in 8 starts he has had 5 QS which were all really good then he has 3 non quality starts and they were mostly really ugly. He has 2 games with no walks then the 6 others dude has walked 21. Like a lot of these older and cheaper journeyman cardinals like to use he tends to pitch pretty well vs the bad lineups and not so well when he comes up against a good hitting team. Historically he hasn’t been as good in the day, has gotten killed at this park in Philly, Harper has just mashed him in 22 at Bats he has 11 hits including 6 bombs and a double, overall exit velo of 102 and a redic ops somewhere above 1.800! I Think we should probably expect a poor outing from Fedde today, im not really interested in laying -170ish tho. So gotta look at Philly team totals imo or props against Fedde. Small concern with the Philly team total is it appears that’s a fairly strong wind blowing in today, I’m not real familiar with how that effects what is typically a bandbox in Philly?

 

[2daBank]

Tell me about this Dobbins kid from Boston.

I'm not all that familiar with him.

Looks like he has excellent control -- 4 walks in 22.2 innings this year.

4 starts total, guessing an injury was in play. Maybe not? Bringing along slowly? First 4 starts of his career.

I don’t know anything about him either, after I finish up with these kinda crappy day games im gonna dig in a little bit but far as seeing him pitch or his stuff
I have no clue.

 

[laopadak]

Took Brewers early this AM at +120, now at -102

Nothing fancy or technical here, just betting against / for sweeps.

 

[2daBank]

For some reason I’m not seeing player props for cardshilly, if I find them Harper over h/r/rbi is def a play. For now.,

Philly Tt ov 4.5
Philly ff-.5 -120

 

[2daBank]

Took Brewers early this AM at +120, now at -102

Nothing fancy or technical here, just betting against / for sweeps.

Good get on price! I don’t know anything bout milw pitcher but hope you cash!

 

[laopadak]

Good get on price! I don’t know anything bout milw pitcher but hope you cash!

You and I both Bank lol, just bought on price and probability of sweep (non). GL today man.

 

[2daBank]

I prefer Harper h/r/RBI to total bases assuming price is right but so far total bases is all I see. I’ll most likely play that over 1.5 -120.

 

[2daBank]

Chapmen over 1.5 total bases +117

His whole career he has hit lhp well w a ops above .800, so far this year he mashing them at a .959 clip and in 16 at bats vs Rodriguez he has a avg above .400 w 4 doubles and a bomb. Tough to pass up plus money on this.

 

[2daBank]

I prefer Harper h/r/RBI to total bases assuming price is right but so far total bases is all I see. I’ll most likely play that over 1.5 -120.

-112 not -120

 

[2daBank]

Fedde walking 9 hole hitters and Philly can’t score off this clown?

 

[2daBank]

Cmon Harper 3-0 he throws a avg at best fastball right down the pipe and you fuvking foul it off? You mfers are facing Eric Fedde not Nolan Ryan

 

[2daBank]

As I say that he cashes his total bases with a double. Now the rest these fuckers need to get him in along with a few more!!

 

[2daBank]

Why do I feel like they not gonna get Harper home from 3rd?

 

[2daBank]

Fucking unreal. Way to go castallanos get punked

 

[2daBank]

Fucking leadoff double and still can’t score.

 

[2daBank]

Watching these guy line out and piss away walks really wasn’t how I wanted to spend my afternoon. Cutting grass would have been less painful

 

[2daBank]

Oh look the kid hitting 9th and came in hitting .125 has gotten on base 2x in 2 at bats! I guess he wasn’t out drinking w all these overpaid losers getting punked by fedde

 

[2daBank]

Jfc. Eat a dick Phillies.

 

[2daBank]

I am pretty much in shock that Luzardo shut cardinals out for 5 innings and I lost the 1st 5 laying the half run. I said Fedde season has been interesting in the fact there really no in between, he has either been excellent or pretty awful and there been more excellent so far this season which kinda shocks me, the things I look for just don’t really add up with him and I think I do a better job than just being lazy and looking at a few analytics I don’t agree with, there way more pitchers I usually line well than not but there are a handful of these guys around the league I just can’t cap for one reason or another. I still blame Philly and think these assholes went out drinking while it was raining last night and playing hung over right now but guess gotta give Fedde his flowers, he got me.

 

[2daBank]

Here we go again. 1st 2 get on then fat boy pops out. 2 more outs to ruin another inning fedde put guys on for them.

 

[2daBank]

This is embarrassing. Philly team total is now 1.5 live. Lmfao

 

[2daBank]

2 pop ups in a row by the middle the order after Harper walking. It’s like Fedde knows who to stay out of the strike zone against and which of these losers he can attack.

 

[2daBank]

This kid pitching for Milw has a little something going for him to fan 7 so far vs cle who a high contact team.

 

[2daBank]

Cardinals idiot manager might have did me a favor pulling Fedde before he finished the 6th. I just don’t see how Philly gonna score me 5 at this point tho.

 

[2daBank]

Cardinals idiot manager might have did me a favor pulling Fedde before he finished the 6th. I just don’t see how Philly gonna score me 5 at this point tho.

Nope. Another hung over player stares at strike 3!! Way to go guys!!

 

[KJ]

Over looks reasonable in Snakes/Giants game. I'm pretty down with fading both starting pitchers and both bullpens. SF has played pretty well to overs the last couple years, especially in the day I believe. Rodriguez will strike guys out but throw a ton of pitches to get there and walk a few as well.

 

[B.A.R.]

As I say that he cashes his total bases with a double. Now the rest these fuckers need to get him in along with a few more!!

That's what I bet too -110
!!

 

[laopadak]

Live play Balt GM2, down 0-1 top of 2nd, +100. Just think they'll split today.

 

[2daBank]

Over looks reasonable in Snakes/Giants game. I'm pretty down with fading both starting pitchers and both bullpens. SF has played pretty well to overs the last couple years, especially in the day I believe. Rodriguez will strike guys out but throw a ton of pitches to get there and walk a few as well.

Good call

 

[2daBank]

Chapmen over 1.5 total bases +117

His whole career he has hit lhp well w a ops above .800, so far this year he mashing them at a .959 clip and in 16 at bats vs Rodriguez he has a avg above .400 w 4 doubles and a bomb. Tough to pass up plus money on this.

How bout that, needed another base and he comes up and singles in the 9th! Of course Phillies already have 5 off a way better cardinals pitcher, why doest thst shock me.

 

[bulldogs]

Auto play
pgh under 8. Now 9-0-1 to the under in last 10.

wsx + 198. cinn should not be -200 vs anyone

these were 2-0 last night

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